Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Why You Should Avoid These Four Blue Chip Stocks

By Justin Spittler

Tech stocks are shattering records. You’ve probably noticed that Donald Trump has had a huge impact on global financial markets. Since Election Day, bonds have tanked. The U.S. dollar has spiked to a 15 year high. And U.S. stocks have broken out to record highs.

Lately, however, the “Trump Rally” has lost some steam. The S&P 500, for example, is trading almost exactly where it was four weeks ago. Technology stocks are still on a roll, though. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which tracks major U.S. tech stocks, is off to its best start in over a decade. MarketWatch reported yesterday:
The Nasdaq Composite has gained 2.76% in its first five trading days of 2017, marking the gauge’s best start to a year since 2006, when it jumped 5.14%.
Yesterday, the Nasdaq jumped another 0.4% to a new record high.

The Nasdaq is now the year’s top performing major U.S. index…
FANG stocks are a big reason why. FANG is a popular investing acronym. It stands for Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Google (GOOG), which now goes by Alphabet. In 2015, FANG stocks were market darlings. Netflix was that year’s top performing stock in the S&P 500. It surged 134%. Amazon, the year’s second best performing stock, gained 118%. Google and Facebook also had great years. They gained 46% and 34%, respectively.

Last year, FANG stocks did just OK…
They climbed 7.8% on average. That’s less than the 9.5% gain by the S&P 500. Trump’s upset victory was a big reason why FANG stocks underperformed the market.

Netflix dropped 5.90% in the three weeks after Election Day…
Amazon and Facebook both dropped 4.7% over the same period. Google fell 4.1%. Like many post election moves, these caught many investors by surprise. But the pullback in FANG stocks actually makes a lot of sense.

Investor’s Business Daily wrote a week after the election:
The big techs had all fallen since the surprise election of Donald Trump as the next president. Trump has championed coal, U.S. manufacturing, a get-tough policy on immigration and other issues that don't favor Silicon Valley, a region that heavily favored his opponent, Hillary Clinton. Trump also has specifically criticized Apple and FANG company (AMZN).
In other words, Trump’s policies should favor other sectors more than technology companies. That’s why investors moved money outside of FANG stocks when Trump won. Investor’s Business Daily added:
"Megacap tech stocks where hedge fund clients were broadly overweight appear to have been viewed as 'safe' and are being used as a source of funds for the rotation into financials, health care and industrials, where investors were not positioned," Morgan Stanley said in a research note Monday.
Of course, the election was more than two months ago. The market has had plenty of time to adjust to the strange new world we find ourselves in.

FANG stocks are rallying again…
So far, they’ve gained 6% on average this year. That’s four times better than the 1.5% gain by the S&P 500. Strong performances by these stocks have helped lift the Nasdaq, which is weighted by market capitalization. This means big companies, like the FANG stocks, impact it more than small companies.

Many mainstream investors are now itching to get back into tech stocks…
After all, most investors like to buy stocks that are rising. It’s much harder for people to buy something that’s falling or down big. Plus, all four companies are household names. They seem like “no brainer” investments.
But you have to understand something about FANG stocks. They’re all very expensive according to popular valuation metrics.

Netflix, for instance, has a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 350. This means investors are paying $350 for every dollar of earnings Netflix generates. That’s off the charts. The S&P 500, for comparison, currently has a P/E ratio of 26. This means Netflix’s stock is almost 13 times more expensive than your average large U.S. stock.

The other FANG stocks aren’t cheap, either…
Amazon trades at 182 times earnings. Facebook has a P/E ratio of 60. And Google has a P/E ratio of 29.
Now, we understand that these are some of the most dominant companies on the planet. Their shares deserve to trade at a premium. But that doesn’t mean you should buy them. After all, the U.S. stock market has been rising for nearly eight years. This makes the current bull market the second longest in U.S. history.

If the market changes course, expensive stocks like FANG could fall hard and fast…
Even if the market keeps rising, these stocks won’t likely generate huge gains. Again, that’s because they’re incredibly expensive. If you really want to make life-changing gains in tech stocks, you have to invest in companies before they’re household names. In other words, you want to look for the next Google or Facebook.

Chris Wood, our chief technology expert, knows how to find great tech stocks…
And, just as important, he knows when to invest in them. You see, Chris has a proprietary system that tells him when to buy stocks and when to sell them. According to Chris, the key time to buy is when a tech stock is in one of two “Sweet Spots.” If you do this right, you can make huge profits without risking much money.

Over the past year, Chris used this unique method to generate gains of 89%, 51%, 34%, and 33% for his subscribers. Most investors would kill for those kinds of returns. But Chris thinks his readers will reap even bigger gains this year. That’s because several stocks in the Extraordinary Technology portfolio are in their Sweet Spots right now. In other words, they’re sitting on the launchpad.

You can learn about Chris’ top moneymaking opportunity for 2017 by watching this new presentation. As you’ll see, he’s hoping to cash in big on a promising technology that could eventually put the global oil industry out of business. Investors who ignore this technology will likely suffer huge loses. But, if you act soon, you could easily make 100% or more over the next two or three years.

To see why, watch this FREE video.

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