Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Silver, Sugar and More


All 3 major markets closed lower on Friday and while the trend does not look good for the NASDAQ 100 the Dow and SP500 appear overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

So it's time to ask our trading partner Michael Seery to give us a recap of this weeks [ending Friday September 22nd] futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week.

Crude oil futures in the November contract settled last Friday in New York at 50.44 a barrel while currently trading at 50.50 primarily unchanged for the trading week which is a rare occurrence as this is a very volatile commodity. I will be recommending a bullish position if prices close above 50.88 while then placing the stop loss under the 10 day low standing at 48.28 risking around $1,300 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. Oil prices are right at a 15 week high trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher with heating oil hitting another contract high in today's trade while unleaded gasoline continues to remain firm. I am bullish the entire sector across the board. The chart structure in crude oil is excellent due to low volatility, and we could be involved in a bullish position at Friday's close so keep a close eye on this market as I think the commodities, in general, are moving higher as the bearish trends have finally come to an end in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Natural gas futures in the November contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.08 while currently trading at 3.02. I have been recommending a bullish position when prices broke out of a 14 week consolidation around the 3.20 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10 day low which stands at 2.96 as the chart structure is excellent due to low volatility. Natural gas prices are now trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as Thursday's trade sent prices down about 12 points. However, I will continue to place the proper stop loss as I'm still bullish the energy sector across the board. Sometimes there are unique situations that develop and that was the main reason why I took this trade. A 14 week break out of the major consolidation does not occur very often in my opinion and that trade that should always be taken, but at the current time we are down on this trade, but over the course of time, the probabilities and the risk/reward are in your favor.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 17.63 an ounce while currently trading at 16.99 at a 3 week low. I'm currently not involved in this commodity, and I will wait for the chart structure to improve, but I still do have a bullish bias to the upside as I think the downside is very limited. The U.S. stock market is at another all time high as traders were awaiting the Federal Reserve's announcement on interest rates this afternoon as that will influence the precious metals and silver prices in general as North Korea did not do any nuclear tests over the previous weekend sending gold and silver prices to 3 week low. Silver is trading slightly below the 20 day moving average, but still above their 100 day which does say the short term trend is mixed as the longer trend is still higher, but wait for the risk/reward scenario to become in your favor once again which could take a couple more weeks. I still think the U.S. dollar is headed lower and that will eventually continue to support silver prices in my opinion. At the current time I have several bullish recommendations & if you read any of my previous blogs, you understand that I am bullish the commodity markets as inflation will start to come back as global economies are improving. I'm certainly not recommending any short position in the precious metals.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.17 a pound while currently trading at 14.64 down over 50 points for the trading week. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 15 level & if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss on a closing basis under the 10 day low of 14.36 as the chart structure is outstanding. Sugar prices are trading right at their 20 day but still below the critical 100 day moving average which stands at 15.26. I still think higher prices are ahead, so place the proper stop loss as we are only about 30 points away as the chart structure was outstanding when the trade was initiated last Friday. I'm still bullish the soft commodities and commodity markets in general. Crude oil prices are right near a 15 week high coupled with the fact that the rest the energy sector continues to remain strong I think that will start to support sugar prices as they are used as bio diesel. We need some fresh fundamental news to dictate short term price action as we have been stuck in the mud over the last 4 weeks with very little volatility.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like SP500, Corn, Soybean, Wheat and more....Just Click Here!

Mike Seery has been a senior analyst for over 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.


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