Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and More


With all three of the major indexes closed lower on Friday and have mixed trend indicators. This has become a virtual no mans land making it impossible to predict any upside targets. Has this bull run....run out of steam?

Of course that means  it's time to ask our trading partner Michael Seery to give us a recap of this weeks [ending Friday November 10th] futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week.

Crude oil futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 55.64 a barrel while currently trading at 57.17 up about $1.50 for the trading week based on two reasons. Political unrest in Saudi Arabia which is the largest producer of oil in the world and strong worldwide demand continuing to push prices higher. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 53.15 level and if you took the trade the stop loss in Monday's trade will be raised to 53.89 as the chart structure next week will improve on a daily basis, therefore, lowering the monetary risk as this trend is strong & is getting stronger on a weekly basis. Oil prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside and I will be recommending adding to this position once the risk/reward becomes in your favor. But at this point that is not the situation so just stay long the original contract & let's see what next week's trade brings. Oil prices are starting to ride the coattails of the U.S. stock market which is right near all time highs and improving worldwide economies continue to push up certain sectors so stay long & continue to place the proper stop loss as who knows how high prices can go. I do think $60 level is a realistic area.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving
Volatility: Increasing

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Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,269 an ounce while currently trading at 1,285 up about $16 for the trading week holding major support on multiple occasions around the 1,264 level as it looks to me that a possible rounding bottom might be taking place in this commodity. I am not involved in gold. However, I am looking at a potential bullish position as prices are right near three week highs with excellent chart structure; therefore, the monetary risk is relatively low for such a volatile commodity. Gold prices are now trading above their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher and I do have a bullish bias in silver as that commodity looks very cheap at the moment. Keep a close eye on gold as we could be involved in a bullish position in next week's trade. Gold prices have held support in recent weeks despite the fact that the U.S. dollar is at a three month high & if that trend should reverse and start to move lower that would be a positive fundamental situation towards gold prices. I still think many of the commodity sectors are under priced as I will not take any short positions as we head into 2018 as the volatility in gold remains remarkably low as we have gone nowhere over the last six weeks. However, I think a trend to the upside is looming.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent
Volatility: low

Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.83 an ounce while currently trading at 17.04 up about 20 cents for the trading week. I still have a bullish bias in silver as prices historically look cheap, and I will be looking at a bullish position in Monday's trade if prices close above 17.31 while then placing the stop loss under the 2 week low which stands at 16.64 risking around $0.70 or $3,500 per large contract or $700 per mini contract plus slippage & commission. Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is to the upside in this market & has acted stronger than gold in recent weeks as solid demand is starting to support prices as volatility remains very low as I don't think that's going to last much longer. Silver prices have held major support around the 16.60 level on multiple occasions despite that the U.S. dollar still is at a three month high which is a negative influence. However, silver prices have held its own in recent weeks, and I think the next trend will be to the upside and I will not take a short position as I think the downside is very limited. If the 17.31 level is broken then we should retest the 17.50 area which is the 7 week high & if that is broken I think we could hit the $18 range rather quickly as I think there's a lot of pent up demand for silver at these depressed levels.
Trend: Mixed - Higher
Chart Structure: Solid
Volatility: Low

Coffee futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 127.50 while currently trading at 129.80 a pound up about 230 points for the trading week. I have talked about the December contract but expiration is upon us so let's focus on March as I will be looking at a bullish position if prices break the five week high of 131.75 on a closing basis. If that situation does occur, I will place the stop loss under the 10 day low which stands at 124.80 risking around 700 points or $2,800 per contract plus slippage and commission as the risk is high as coffee is a very large contract. The chart structure will start to improve early next week, therefore, lowering the monetary risk as prices are now trading above their 20 day moving average, but still below their 100 day which stands at 135.40 as volatility still remains extremely low. At the current time, my only bullish soft commodity recommendation is in the sugar market which is higher for the 6th consecutive session today. I am becoming bullish most commodity sectors so keep a close eye on coffee as we could be involved in this sleeping giant come next week's trade.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent
Volatility: Low

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like the Mexican Peso, Wheat, Cotton, Sugar and more....Just Click Here!

Mike Seery has been a senior analyst for over 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

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