Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Sugar and More

The three major indexes closed higher yet again on Friday July 14th and all three are showing Stochastics and RSI that are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Is it possible that this bull market, the second longest in history, can go even higher at this point?

To answer that question there is nobody better to ask than our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give you a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week. Mike has been a senior analyst for over 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures are currently trading at 46.36 a barrel after settling last Friday in New York at 44.23 up over $2 for the trading week and looking to retest the five week high at 47.32. If you are short, that's where I would place the stop loss as your exit strategy. Prices are rallying because the U.S. dollar has continued its bearish trend this week pushing up many different sectors. Oil prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as this trend is lower to mixed in my opinion. I remain bearish as the fundamentals remain extremely weak with Goldman Sachs stating this week that they think that prices will crack the $40 level coupled with the fact that OPEC said that production is too high for current demand levels as prices have reversed in this week's trade. At the current time, I do not have any trade recommendations in the energies as they have been choppy over the last several weeks with relatively low volatility. This week's API report showed another draw down pushing prices higher as the chart structure is outstanding therefore the monetary risk is low at this time so if you're looking to enter into a new short position the stop loss is tight.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the August contract is up $10 an ounce, and I am now recommending a bearish position. As I stated in yesterday's blog from around the 1,228 level if you took the trade, continue to place the stop loss at the 10 day high standing at 1,243. However, in Tuesday's trade that could be lowered to today's high around 1,233 as the chart structure is outstanding therefore the risk/reward is highly in your favor in my opinion. Gold prices rebounded sharply earlier this morning due to an abysmal retail sales report which was the 2nd consecutive report that was negative. However, the U.S. stock market is hitting all time highs once again today as they were not considering this valuable information so stay short & place the proper stop loss risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade. Gold prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as prices settled last Friday in New York at 1,209 while currently trading at 1,226 up to about $17 for the trading week. I think this is just a kick back due to oversold conditions as the major support still lies around the 1,200 level & if that is broken this bearish trend could get ugly to the downside in my opinion so stay short.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.52 an ounce while currently trading at 15.98 up $0.30 Friday afternoon & nearly $0.50 for the trading week. This is all based on a weak retail sales report that was released this morning which has now been negative for the last two months sending the U.S dollar to a fresh ten month low pushing up the precious metals. Silver prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside. If you are in a short futures contract, you should place your stop at 16.64 as an exit strategy and in Tuesday's trade that could be lowered down to 16.19 as the chart structure will start to improve tremendously over the next couple of days. Silver prices bottomed out in Monday's trade at 15.14, and I think this rally is based on oversold conditions as the precious metal still look weak in my opinion. The U.S stock market is hitting another all time high in today's trade as that's where all the interest remains, but it looks like short covering has pushed this market up in the short term.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 14.15 a pound while currently trading at 13.97 in a relatively quiet trading week and still stuck in a sideways trend. The breakout does not occur until the four week high is established which stands at 14.39 with the chart structure improving on a daily basis so keep a close eye on this market to the upside. The U.S dollar is hitting a new ten month low in today's trade, and that is helping support many of the commodity markets due to weak retail sales. Sugar prices are now trading above their 20 day, but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at 15.70 which is quite a distance away as ideal growing conditions in key sugar growing regions continue to keep a lid on prices here in the short term. At present my only recommendation in the soft commodities is a bullish coffee position which has broken out to new highs in today's trade with sugar having a difficult time above the 14 level. Commodities, in general, look like they are in a bottoming pattern especially the agricultural sectors as sugar prices bottomed out on June 28th at the 12.74 level and now the tide might be turning.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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