Showing posts with label ETFs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ETFs. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Setting Proper Expectations While Learning How To Trade/Invest For Growth Using ETFs

Continuing with our sneak peek week, welcome to an example of the Monday video report our CGS subscribers receive. Typically I will cover market movements from a high level perspective, going over the pops and drops, market sentiment, ETF trends, and market phases of the preceding week and then looking at where the markets may be headed next. 

I will often also include my thoughts on a frequently asked question – and the main topic of last week’s emails was why our CGS strategy is out of the market and protecting our capital at the moment….Watch The Video Here.

Monday, November 28, 2022

After This Holiday Rally, You Better Know When To Walk Away

This week’s investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year.

We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold.

Let’s dive in....Continue Reading Here.

Sunday, May 2, 2021

Utilities Continues To Rally – Is It Sending A Warning Signal Yet?

We have experienced an incredible rally in many sectors over the past 5+ months. My research team has been pouring over the charts trying to identify how the next few weeks and months may play out in terms of continued trending or risks of some price volatility setting up. We believe the Utilities Sector may hold the key to understanding how and when the US markets will reach some level of stronger resistance as many sector ETFs are trading in new all time high price ranges.

Utilities Sector Resistance at $71.10 Should Not Be Ignored

The Utilities Sector has continued to rally since setting up a unique bottom in late February 2021. A recent double top setup, near $68, suggests resistance exists just above current trading levels. Any continuation of this uptrend over the next few weeks, targeting the $70 Fibonacci 100% Measured Move, would place the XLU price just below the previous pre COVID19 highs near $71.10 (the MAGENTA Line).

My research suggests the momentum up this recent uptrend may continue to push prices higher into early May, quite possibly setting up the Utilities ETF for a rally above $70. Yet, we believe the resistance near $71.10 will likely act as a strong barrier for price and may prompt a downward price correction after the completion of the Fibonacci 100% Measured Price Move. In other words, the recent rally across many sectors will likely continue for a bit longer before key resistance levels begin to push many sectors into some sideways trading ranges....Continue Reading Here.

Friday, September 6, 2019

Can Crude Oil Stay Above $50 to Support Producers Expectations

Recent news suggests that oil producers are attempting to increase production levels after failing to attempt to push prices higher by cutting production levels. Globally, oil producers want to see oil prices rise above $65 ppb in an effort to support profit and production cost expectations. The real issue for the nation/states that rely on oil production/sales is that the global economy may not cooperate with their expectations over the next 24+ months.

On August 6th, 2019, we posted this article suggesting that Natural Gas and Crude Oil were setting up diverging trades.

August 6th, 2019: Natural Gas and Crude Oil – Diverging Setups for Technical Traders

At that time, we wrote that we expected Crude oil to break lower from the $62 ppb level and target $55, then $49 based on our original Crude Oil research from May 21, 2019.

Additionally, on July 29, 2019, we authored and posted this article suggesting that Crude Oil would begin a downside move from $55 to levels near $50 :

All of this research was related to our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) research post from July 10, 2019: Predictive Modeling Suggest Oil Headed Much Lower by Early 2020

This incredible predictive modeling research suggested that Oil would move dramatically lower towards the $50 level, then stall near $50 to $55+ through September and October. Ultimately breaking lower in late October/November to levels near or below $40.

Crude Oil Daily Chart Analysis

Our researchers believe Crude Oil could become very volatile as price nears the apex of the Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up. This Daily chart highlights the attempted “scouting party” price rotation above the price resistance channel. The news over the past holiday weekend suggests the global economy may not see any real bump in activity over the next 12+ months and we believe this aligns with our longer-term research that Oil should target the sub $40 price level before the end of 2019 and potentially fall to levels below $30 in early 2020.



Crude Oil Weekly Chart Analysis

We believe the key to all of this price rotation is the $50.50 level and what price does over the next 30 to 60+ days. There is a potential that price may attempt a brief upside move over this span of time, but the true intent of price is to move lower based on our ADL price modeling system. Therefore, we believe the downside potential is the most opportunistic for traders. The next price target based on our Fibonacci bearish price trigger level is the $45 price range.



Concluding Thoughts

This move could take place quickly, over the next 2 to 3 weeks on a breakdown move, or over many months. Watch the $50.50 level as that is the key. If the price falls to any level below $50.50, then we could be moving towards the $45 level or even the $40 on a big move related to global economic expectations. Otherwise, expect the price to move towards the $50.50 level over the next few weeks as this support level is key to all future moves.

As we wait for the next leg to start to move prices lower, pay attention to any upside price activity as that may present a very clear entry point for skilled technical traders.

We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Free Gold or Silver with Subscription!



Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Buy the Dip? Hell No.....Sell the Rip Instead

By Tony Sagami

Are you worried about the stock market? You should be; at least according to your local Starbucks barista.
Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz told his 190,000 employees in his daily “Message from Howard” email communication: “Today’s financial market volatility, combined with great political uncertainty both at home and abroad, will undoubtedly have an effect on consumer confidence and … our customers are likely to experience an increased level of anxiety and concern. Let’s be very sensitive to the pressures our customers may be feeling.”

You can’t make this stuff up!

Hey, maybe I shouldn’t be too harsh on Mr. Schultz, because the stock market is in a lot of trouble… and not for the reasons the mass media and Wall Street experts are telling you. The know it alls on CNBC are pointing their fingers at the Chinese stock market meltdown as the reason for our stock market turmoil, but that is just the catalyst… not the root problem.

The source of the meltdown is deeper, more problematic, and more painful. What I’m talking about is that the Federal Reserve—from Greenspan to Bernanke, to Yellen—thought they possessed Wizard of Oz powers to fix whatever ails the economy with their menu of monetary tools.

In 2000, the Fed thought it could solve the bursting of the dot-com bubble with massive interest rate cuts and repeated that playbook again for the 2008-09 Financial Crisis. And when they ran out of room by cutting interest rates to zero, they trotted out Operation Twist and QE 1, 2, and 3.


Those three rounds of QE added about $3.7 trillion to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet since 2008, which now totals a mind boggling $4.5 trillion. The problem is not China; the problem is Janet Yellen and her Federal Reserve buddies.


The Fed—beginning with the original monetary Mr. Magoo of Alan Greenspan—created a bubble, then rolled out more of the same to deal with the bursting of the bubble, and like the shampoo bottle says: Rinse, Lather, Repeat. Zero interest rates plus QE1, QE2, and QE3 created a massive misallocation of capital that has affected everything from home supply, ocean-going freighters, the US dollar, and wages, and pushed stock prices to a bigger than ever bubble.


The recent weakness is the painful process of deflating that bubble, but the Federal Reserve refuses to learn from its mistakes. It won’t be long until we hear about QE4 and/or a delay to the overpromised interest rate liftoff. Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers had this to say yesterday: “A reasonable assessment of current conditions suggests that raising rates in the near future would be a serious error that would threaten all three of the Fed’s major objectives; price stability, full employment and financial stability.”

Honestly, I don’t know what the Federal Reserve will do next. Heck, I bet they don’t know what to do either… but they will do something. Central bankers are arrogant know-it-alls who think they can fix the world’s financial problems with a couple of pulls of a monetary lever.

So pull they will.

And so the stock market damage will continue, albeit with some powerful up moves along the way.
Bulls, whether in a Spanish bull-fighting arena or roaming the floor of the NYSE, are a tough animal to kill. They won’t surrender until they make a few more desperate attempts to push the market higher.
Look at what happened last Tuesday after the 588-point Monday meltdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up by as much as 441 points before ending the day with a 204-point loss.


My point is that you’re going to see a lot of powerful up moves in the coming months… but I’m telling you, these are nothing more than bear market traps to lure you into buying at the wrong time. The stock market is falling into a bear market, and that means big swings both up and down, similar to 2000–2003.


The Federal Reserve, along with the rest of the world’s central bankers, has puffed stock valuations into an epic bubble, and the stock market has a long, long ways yet to fall…..just not in a straight line. That’s heart attack material for both buy-hold-and-pray and buy the dip investors, but it is a goldmine if you adapt your strategy.


Instead of buying the dip, the right strategy going forward is SELL THE RIP.

When the stock market gives you a big rally, the right move will be to sell into strength.

And if you have some risk capital, that will be the time to load up on inverse ETFs and put options, like my Rational Bear subscribers did in July.

The biggest short-selling opportunity of our lifetimes is knocking on your door.
Tony Sagami
Tony Sagami

30 year market expert Tony Sagami leads the Yield Shark and Rational Bear advisories at Mauldin Economics. To learn more about Yield Shark and how it helps you maximize dividend income, click here.

To learn more about Rational Bear and how you can use it to benefit from falling stocks and sectors, click here.



Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!


Thursday, March 5, 2015

Going Vertical.....Our Next Online Event

There are again signs on the horizon that the next gold bull market may not be far off.

On February 11, Bloomberg reported, “Gold producers with cash on hand are on the hunt for cheap mining assets as rising prices drive shares higher.” $2.7 billion in deals have already been announced or completed year to date—compared to a total of $10.5 billion in 2014.

Private equity firms (the “smart money”) are circling the mining industry for great deals. GDX, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, currently has an aggregate price to book ratio of 1.06, while its little brother, the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), trades at 76% of book value.

A stronger US dollar and falling oil prices are presenting two deflationary forces that are good for gold. The last two times oil dropped more than 50% in one year—1986 and 2008—gold rallied over 25% the following year.

Here's our video primer for this weeks event "Are you Going to Buy Low and Sell High this Time Around"

Investors are waking up to the fact that gold is rallying. Among the top 10 non leveraged ETFs are five gold miners ETFs. As of early February, investors had already poured $885.4 million in new assets into GDX—one of the best results among sector ETFs—and GDXJ attracted nearly $226 million.

No one can say for sure if this is the beginning of the next gold bull market. However, what is clear is that once the bull market does get started, the best of the best gold stocks will go vertical.

Successful gold producers may go up 150-200%. But the top ranked junior miners—the companies with quality management and great assets will take a moonshot. 500%, 1,000%, and more is not out of the question.

Casey Research’s free online event GOING VERTICAL aims to help investors understand where we are in the gold cycle, what to expect, and how to prepare their portfolio so they have a real shot at the jackpot when gold rises again.

Just Click Here to Reserve Your Spot

Eight industry stars discuss the most pressing issues of the day......

Pierre Lassonde, cofounder and chairman of Franco-Nevada
Rick Rule, founder and chairman of Sprott Global Resource Investments
Ron Netolitzky, chairman and director of Aben Resources
Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research
Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of U.S. Global Investors
Bob Quartermain, president, CEO, and director of Pretium Resources
and Casey Research precious metals experts Louis James and Jeff Clark.

Topics they will talk about in GOING VERTICAL include: 2015 outlook on the gold market; up, down, or sideways?—What to expect from gold’s next leg up, and how even stocks that have dropped 75% or more can come back with a vengeance—How to make money on junior miners even in the midst of a downturn—Which country may end up controlling the price of gold and what that means for investors—4 signs that a bear market is turning into a bull market—Which types of companies institutional investors will flock to first when gold goes up, and how to “front run” them—3 reasons why the best gold producers might double when the gold sector recovers—and much more.

Also, some of the experts talk about their favorite gold and silver companies, naming names—and Louis James reveals one of his favorite junior mining stock with vertical potential.

Register now to watch the event on Tuesday, March 10, 2:00 p.m. EDT. Even if you know you can’t make it at that time, register anyway that way you’ll get an email with a link to the video recording after the event and can watch it at your leisure.

Click Here to Learn More and Register

See you on Tuesday,
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader

Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Cut Trading Risk and Increase Reward with a Strategy I Know You're not Using

"Amazing insights...THANKS!"

"Whoa, completely changed my mindset on ETFs"

Those are two quotes from people who watched John Carter's latest video on trading options on ETFs: John's Favorite Ways to Trade Options On ETFs

He shows you how his strategy allows you to cut risk, increase rewards, and grow your account [of any size we might add] using options on ETFs.

Don't worry...it's VERY clear and easy to apply (Watch Video)

John also shows you....

   *  Why trading options on ETFs cuts your risk so you can sleep at night

   *  How you can profit with ETFs from the unexpected move in the dollar

   *  Why you avoid the games high frequency traders play by trading ETFs

   *  Why most analysts have the next move in the dollar wrong and how to protect your investments

   *  What are some of the markets that will be impacted by the dollars next move

This is crucial information that I highly recommend you take the time to review...it's FREE after all.

Stream the video HERE

See you in the markets putting this to work,
Ray C. Parrish
aka The Crude Oil Trader


Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!


Monday, November 17, 2014

Free Webinar: Why you Should Trade Options on ETFs

Our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options is back with another one of his wildly popular free trading webinars. His focus this time is "Why you should trade Options on ETFs". John took the time to give us idea what he'll be walking us through step by step in this weeks webinar by producing this great video [just click here to watch]  that included how we can play the next big move in the dollar. A move that John predicts most traders will miss.

Just Click Here to get your Reserved Seat for the Webinar

This weeks webinar is Tuesday evening November 18th at 8 p.m. est

In this free webinar John Carter will discuss....

  *  Why trading options on ETFs are perfect for newbies, retirees, part time traders, and full time traders

  *  Why options on ETFs are safer than trading futures or forex while allowing you to hold on for bigger
       moves

  *  What ETFs should you trade options on and which ones should you avoid so you’re choosing the most
       consistent ETFs to trade

  *  The 5 reasons why you should learn how to trade options on ETFs and stabilize your trading account

  *  Why options on ETFs are ideal for small account traders who want to either safely grow their account
       or try for a home run trade

And much more….

Just click here to get your reserved space asap, John's classes always fill up and turn people away so sign up now and make sure you log in 10 minutes early so you don't lose your spot.

See you Tuesday evening!

Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader


Here's a great primer for the webinar, watch John's FREE video he released this week....Just Click Here!


Saturday, November 15, 2014

So....Your nervous about trading overnight options trades? Don't be, and here's how!

You've seen us talking about a new Options strategy that John Carter was working on recently...and he is finally sharing it with us.

Video: My Favorite Way to Trade Options on ETFs

This strategy is the "sleep at night as you trade options" strategy. And we ALL need that!

Here's just a taste of what John shows you in this video:

*  Why trading options on ETFs cuts your risk so you can sleep at night

*  How you can profit with ETFs from the unexpected move in the dollar

*  Why you avoid the games high frequency traders play by trading ETFs

*  Why most analysts have the next move in the dollar wrong and how to protect your investments

*  What are some of the markets that will be impacted by the dollars next move

Here's the link to watch the video again

Enjoy the video,
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader


Reserve your seat now for John's next FREE webinar "Why You Should Trade Options on ETF's"....Just Click Here!


Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Mid Week Commodities Summary for Wednesday October 22nd - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Coffee, Sugar, Euro, Dollar

Crude oil closed down $2.12 at $80.38 today. Prices closed near the session low and closed at a two plus year low close today. The bears have the solid near term technical advantage.

Natural gas closed down 5.1 cents at $3.749 today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a contract low close. The natural gas bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Gold futures closed down $7.20 an ounce at $1,244.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking after hitting a six-week high on Tuesday. Gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a fledgling three-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

Silver futures closed down $0.379 at $17.17 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The silver bears have the firm overall near term technical advantage.

Todays top Dividend Plays....Stocks and ETFs

Coffee closed down 850 points at 191.10 cents today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another three week low today. It appears a market top is in place. The coffee bears have gained the near term technical advantage.

Sugar closed up 6 points at 16.50 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Sugar bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.

Oil Deflation, the Saudi’s Muslim Frankenstein, and the Colder War

The December Euro currency closed down 79 points at 1.2651 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. The Euro bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and are regaining downside momentum.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 0.436 at 85.840 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The greenback bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are regaining upside momentum.

How to Beat These Billionaires at their own Game....Just Click Here!

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

How to Grow a Small Trading Account into a BIG One

He's back! Our friend and trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options is back to answer the number one question he gets at the Simpler Options phone bank...."how can I trade using a small trading account"?

As you have probably already learned [like all of us] trading fees quickly erode our trading accounts even when we have some success when using a small account. Today John shows us how to put that all behind us.

Growth is on our minds, and I'm sure it's on yours.....so watch this free video from the industries leading educator and start growing and protecting your account today.

How to Grow a Small Account into a BIG One

Here's what you'll learn from John......

   *   The difference between trading for income vs. growth and what no one else will tell you about this

   *   The # 1 job of every trader has to accomplish or look for a new job

   *   Why you don’t want to focus on being right in trading and yes this is counter intuitive

   *   Examples of my favorite trades for growing a small account

   *   Position sizing appropriately for a small account and the types of stocks and ETFs to trade

John shows us all of his trades in his real 5K account that he'll be growing right before our eyes. And John explains in detail every method he uses to make it all happen.

Watch the video here...and thank me later

See you in the markets,
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

P.S.  please feel free to leave a comment after watching the video, we want to hear your take on what John is doing.




Thursday, June 6, 2013

Gold, Silver & Precious Metal Miners Signals

It has been a very long couple of years for the precious metal bugs. The price of gold, silver and their related mining stocks have bucked the broad market up trend and instead have been sinking to the bottom in terms of performance.

Earlier this week I posted a detailed report on the broad stock market and how it looks as though it‘s uptrend will be coming to an end sooner than later. The good news is that precious metals have the exact flip side of that outlook. They appear to be bottoming as they churn at support zones.

While metals and miners remain in a down trend it is important to recognize and prepare for a reversal in the coming weeks or months. Let’s take a look at the charts for a visual of where price is currently trading along with my analysis overlaid.

Weekly Price of Gold Futures

Gold has been under heavy selling pressure this year and it still may not be over. The technical patterns on the chart show continued weakness down to the $1300USD per once which would cleanse the market of remaining long positions before price rockets towards $1600+ per ounce.

There is a second major support zone drawn on the chart which is a worst case scenario. But this would likely on happen if US equities start another major leg higher and rally through the summer.

PriceOfGold


Weekly Price of Silver Futures

Silver is a little different than gold in terms of where it stands from a technical analysis point of view. The recent 10% dip in price which shows on the chart as a long lower candle stick wick took place on very light volume. This to me shows the majority of weak positions have been shaken out of silver. Gold has not done this yet and it typically happens before a bottom is put in.

While I figure gold will make one more minor new low, silver I feel will drift sideways to lower during until gold works the bugs out of the chart.

PriceOfSilver

Silver Mining Stock ETF – Weekly Chart

Silver miners are oversold and trading at both horizontal support and its down support trendline. Volume remains light meaning traders and investors are not that interested in them down where and it should just be a matter of time (weeks/months) before they build a basing pattern and start to rally.

SilverMiningStocksETF


Gold Mining Stock ETF – Weekly Chart

Gold mining stocks continue to be sold by investors with volume rising and price falls. Fear remains in control but that may not last much longer.

GOldMiningStocksETF


Gold Junior Mining Stock ETF – Weekly Chart

Gold junior miners are in the same boat with the big boys. Overall gold and gold miners are still being sold while silver and silver stocks are firming up.

GoldJuniorMiningStocksETF


Precious Metals Trading Conclusion

In the coming weeks we should see the broad stock market top out and for gold miners along with precious metals bottom. There are some decent gains to be had in this sector for the second half of the year but it will remain very dicey at best.

If selling in the broad market becomes intense and triggers a full blown bear market money will be pulled out of most investments as cash is king. Gold is likely to hold up the best in terms of percentage points but mining stocks will get sucked down along with all other stocks for a period of time. This scenario is not likely to be of any issue for a few months yet but it’s something to remember.

Chris Vermeulen


Get My Daily Precious Metals Report Each Morning And Profit!


The Bible for Commodity Traders....Get our free eBook now!

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Two Commodity ETFs to Buy

Dan Dicker is watching commodities for how to buy equities and is looking at two ETFs as a way to take advantage of.



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Friday, August 21, 2009

Possible New US Rules Are Wildcard for Commodity ETFs


Investors who want to buy a commodity exchange-traded fund need to perform a new type of calculus....Guessing which ones will be affected by possible new limits on speculators. Worries about regulators possibly curbing ETFs that hold commodity futures have been around since crude oil prices spiked last summer. But in the past few weeks, the threat has become much more real, hindering operations of funds that target commodities ranging from natural gas to wheat. Investors now face a guessing game about whether anticipated restrictions will affect still more funds.....Complete Story
Stock & ETF Trading Signals