Showing posts with label Exxon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Exxon. Show all posts

Saturday, December 12, 2015

If You Own These Stocks, Your Dividend Is in Danger

By Justin Spittler

Mining companies are having another horrible week. As Dispatch readers know, commodities are in a deep bear market. Over the past year, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks 22 different commodities, has fallen to its lowest level since May 1999. Many individual commodities have lost 30% or more in the last year. Since December 2014, coffee has dropped 30%, palladium has dropped 34%, and platinum has dropped 31%. Crashing commodity prices have forced many mining companies to drastically cut spending.

Yesterday, mining giant Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) suspended its dividend. Freeport is the seventh largest mining company and the second largest copper miner in the world. The suspension of Freeport’s dividend is a major event. Until recently, Freeport was one of the industry’s most generous dividend payers. It paid $4.7 billion in dividends between 2012 and 2014. Its stock yielded about 3.8% in 2014.

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Management hopes to save $240 million a year by not paying a dividend. Freeport will also reduce its copper production by 29%, and cut capital spending by $1 billion over the next two years.
Freeport’s stock jumped 3.7% yesterday. It’s still down 71% this year.

The price of copper, Freeport’s main source of revenue, has plunged.…
Copper has dropped 27% this year to a six year low. Crashing energy prices have also slammed Freeport. In 2013, Freeport loaded up on debt to acquire two oil and gas companies. Its timing was awful. At the time, the North American energy industry was booming. But since last June, the energy sector has entered one of its worst bear markets on record. The price of oil has plunged 66% to its lowest level since 2009. The price of natural gas has dropped 55%. Freeport’s sales have now declined five quarters in a row. The company lost $3.8 billion last quarter, after making a $552 million profit a year ago.

Investors hate dividend cuts.…
A dividend cut often signals that a company is in big trouble. Typically, a company will only cut its dividend when it runs out of other options. Companies will often shelve new projects, lay off workers, and slash executive compensation before touching their dividends.

Freeport is only one of several major commodity giants to cut its dividend this year...
Anglo American (AAL.L), the world’s fifth largest mining company, suspended its dividend on Tuesday. The company will not pay a dividend again until at least 2017.

Kinder Morgan (KMI), North America’s largest energy pipeline company, also cut its dividend on Tuesday. The company’s fourth quarter dividend will be 75% less than it planned.
The list goes on….Vale (VALE), the world’s largest miner.…Glencore (GLEN.L), the world’s third largest miner….and....

Peabody Energy (BTU), the world’s largest publicly traded coal company, all cut their dividends this year.
Widespread dividend cuts suggest that major miners are in “survival mode.” To us, this is a key sign that commodities may be near a bottom. While prices of certain commodities could easily go lower or stay low, commodities as a group may be in a bottoming process.

Oil dropped to a new six year low yesterday.…
As we mentioned, the price of oil has now dropped 66% since June 2014. This is oil’s second-worst drop since 1985. The only bigger drop happened during the financial crisis when oil plummeted 77%.
Low oil prices are crushing the “supermajors,” four of the world’s biggest oil companies. Third quarter sales for BP (BP) fell 41%, year over year. Sales for Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) both fell 37%. And sales for Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) fell 36%.

All four companies have announced drastic spending cuts to cope with falling revenues. BP cut spending on capital projects by about $6 billion this year. Exxon cut spending on capital projects by 22% in the third quarter. Chevron announced 7,000 layoffs after reporting poor third quarter results. And Shell abandoned a $7 billion oil project in the Arctic. Together, these companies have cut spending by more than $30 billion in just the last few months.

Even with huge spending cuts, the supermajors are still bleeding cash….
In October, The Wall Street Journal reported:
Spending on new projects, share buybacks and dividends at four of the biggest oil companies known as the supermajors – Royal Dutch Shell PLC, BP PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. – outstripped cash flow by more than a combined $20 billion in the first half of 2015, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.

However, the supermajors have NOT cut dividends yet.…
For years, supermajor dividends have been one of the safest income streams on the planet. Shell hasn’t cut its dividend since the end of World War II. Exxon has increased or maintained its dividend for 33 consecutive quarters. Chevron has done the same for 27 consecutive quarters. Many investors consider these dividends untouchable. They’re often a foundational part of their holdings, like grandma’s ring or the family farm. However, if oil keeps plummeting, these companies might have to cut their dividends.

Dividend yields for the supermajors are soaring.…
Since January, Shell’s dividend yield has jumped from 5.1% to 8.1%. It’s nearing a historic high. BP’s dividend yield has jumped from 6.5% to 8.4% over the same period. Exxon’s has jumped from 3.0% to 3.9%. And Chevron’s has jumped from 3.8% to 5.0%. These yields are not going up because the companies are increasing payouts. They’re going up because these companies’ stock prices are falling.

The world’s biggest oil companies were not prepared for oil to drop below $40.…
Financial Times reported on Tuesday: Just weeks ago, BP and France’s Total each pledged to balance their books at $60 a barrel oil, saying they aimed to cover their dividends from “organic” cash flow by 2017.
Total (TOT) is another giant oil company that’s struggling. Total’s quarterly sales have dropped four quarters in a row. If oil continues to trade below $40, these companies might have no choice but to cut their dividends. In fact, their dividends might be at risk even if oil does rebound soon.

Even at $60, the three biggest European majors will need to take further cost cutting action to cover investor payouts…Total’s $6.8bn dividend would exceed its projected organic free cash flow by $800m two years from now. For BP, the cash shortfall is put at $500m. If these giant oil companies do cut their dividends, it could trigger huge selloffs. Many investors hold these companies specifically for their reliable dividends.


Chart of the Day

The bear market in oil may be far from over. Today’s chart compares the Bloomberg Commodity Index, or BCOM, to the price of oil. As we mentioned earlier, BCOM tracks 22 different commodities. Commodities and oil both peaked in 2011. BCOM entered a bear market almost immediately after. Oil, however, didn’t have a big drop until mid-2014.

In other words, commodities have been in a bear market for four years…but oil has been in a bear market for less than two years. That’s one reason why major commodity companies have cut dividends but the oil supermajors haven’t…yet. Until major oil companies begin to cut dividends, we wouldn’t bet on a bottom in oil.



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Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Potential Takeover Target Anadarko [APC] is Now $9 Billion Cheaper

Anadarko Petroleum's (APC) legal troubles likely haven't tarnished its allure for investors - instead, it has helped make APC $9 billion cheaper, and more appealing for a buyout, Bloomberg reports.

APC may be at the top of the list for multinational oil companies seeking purchases to turn around declining production, analysts say; a buyer willing to shell out $40B plus a premium would get a presence in fields where few big energy companies have exposure: the Niobrara formation in Colorado, Texas’ Eagle Ford shale basin, and offshore Africa.

APC would be an especially good fit for Exxon (XOM) or Chevron (CVX), Oppenheimer's Fadel Gheit says, although it's hard to see how a deal could be serious without a resolution to the Tronox lawsuit, which could leave APC on the hook for as much as $14B in environmental cleanup and health claims.

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Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Exxon May Soar On New Potential In Mexico

Things have been looking great for Exxon Mobil (XOM) lately. Anadarko Petroleum (APC) recently indicated that Exxon may become a partner in Anadarko's Gulf of Mexico operations. Anadarko is already partnered with Plains Exploration & Production Company (PXP) on its deepwater Phobos project in the Gulf, and according to Anadarko Vice President of Investor Relations and Communications, John Colglazier, Exxon may enter the project with up to a 20% working interest, which would reduce Anadarko's interest from 50 to 30%.

In exchange, Anadarko could receive cash and a drilling carry, which would potentially cover the cost of the project's first exploration well. This would be beneficial for Exxon Mobil, and represents just one of the recent successes the company has seen lately. Below, I will show how Exxon's current position within the energy sector makes it a strong investment now.....Looking Deep for Gains

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Thursday, May 26, 2011

Dan Dicker: Oil's Endless Bid

We all know Dan from his appearances on CNBC and The Street.Com but don't hold that against him. Dan's insight into the world of trading crude oil and natural gas is great for the "home Gamer" that needs help trading these commodities using tickers they can both buy and understand.

The price of oil is negatively impacting both companies and consumers. In Oil's Endless Bid, taming the Unreliable Price of Energy to Secure Our Economy, energy analyst Dan Dicker recalls his experiences as an oil trader and reveals the changes that have taken place in the oil markets during the past twenty years, and particularly the last five, as investment banks, energy hedge funds, and managed futures funds have come to dominate energy trading and wreak havoc on prices.

Get started trading crude oil today, just click here to order your copy of "Oil's Endless Bid"



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Friday, November 19, 2010

Where is ExxonMobil Headed From Here?

With the recent beating crude oil bulls have taken is it time to bail on industry leader ExxonMobil (XOM)? A quick look at our "Smart Scan Chart Analysis" technology confirms that a short term counter trend move is underway.

When this action is over look for the longer term positive trend to resume. Be sure to trade this uptrend with tight money management stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, XOM scored +85 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10......Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Avg
-15......New 3 Day Low on Tuesday
+20......Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25......New 3 Week High, Week Ending Nov. 13th
+30......New 3 Month High in November
+85......Total Score

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Wednesday, October 20, 2010

How to Buy Risky Energy Stocks

Dan Dicker, senior contributor at TheStreet, reveals how to buy energy stocks in your 20's.



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Friday, October 15, 2010

Is Exxon The Best Long Term Oil Play?

Dan Dicker, senior contributor for TheStreet.Com , says if he could recommend one oil stock to buy and hold for your kids it would be Exxon.



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Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning Oct. 13th

Crude oil was higher overnight and appears poised to renew the rally off August's low. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.93 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off last week's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 84.09
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 81.63

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.99
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.93


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Friday, October 8, 2010

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning Oct. 8th

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.16 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off last week's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 84.09
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65

Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 82.37

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.19
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.15


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Thursday, October 7, 2010

Crude Oil Bulls Maintain The Advantage, Trading Signals Clearly Overbought

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off last week's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.09 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 84.09
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65

Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 83.20

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.97
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.09



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Tuesday, October 5, 2010

New Video: This Reliable S&P Formation Could Make You Money

In this new video we explain in detail a particular chart formation that has proven to be very reliable in the past. If we are right, we could see a further move and run in the S&P500 to the upside. The video is free to watch and there are no registration requirements.


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Phil Flynn: Rate Ruckus

Is the winner the country that has the most ink? Gold prices soar to a new record high as once again a global central bank decides to print their way to prosperity. The Bank of Japan gave gold another reason to make a new high by announcing what Dow Jones Newswires says is, “an ambitious” Y35 trillion monetary easing program to spur economic growth while cutting interest rates to virtually zero and launching a Y5 trillion program to buy private and public sector assets. Ambitious?! Boy, I’d say.

I guess there is more than one way to intervene in your currency. The Japan government is adding more stimuli while reducing the confidence in paper money. Looks like a golden opportunity to buy more gold. Perhaps it's time to buy black gold as well. Oil traders love to exploit devalued currencies and devalued confidence in the same way. Yesterday the oil market ignored the rebounding dollar and supplies that are 13% above the five year average and instead returned to focus on the shutdown of the Houston Shipping Channel that was shut down when a barge hit an electrical tower.

That disruption helped send oil to an eight week high. Dow Jones reported that U.S. Coast Guard says that the 3 1/2 mile stretch of the Houston shipping channel will likely be closed until late Tuesday so that low hanging power lines and a listing tower can be cleared away. The closure will affect crude deliveries to four refineries in the Houston ship channel. Dow says that the tower, which carries one of three transmission lines into Exxon Mobil Corp.'s (XOM) Baytown refinery, was struck.....Read the entire article.




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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Oct. 5th

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off last week's low, August's high crossing at 83.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.31 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 82.38
Second resistance is August's high crossing at 83.91

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 81.54

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.20
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.31


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Friday, October 1, 2010

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning Oct. 1st

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off last week's low, the 87% retracement level of August's decline crossing at 82.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.69 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 81.08
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of August's decline crossing at 82.41

Crude oil pivot for Friday morning is 79.23

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.69
Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58



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Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Sept. 28th

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 78.86 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58 would renew the decline off this month's low.


First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.17
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.86

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 76.40

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 73.08

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Thursday, September 23, 2010

Oil Fails to Benefit from USD Weakness

Dataflow continued to weigh on the dollar, pushing other major currencies higher, yesterday. With the exception of the US energy sector, commodities were buoyed by a weaker dollar. Comex gold for December delivery soared to as high as 1298 before settling at 1292.1, up +1.40%. Silver rallied with the benchmark contract closing above 21 for the first time since mid-March 2008. In the base metal complex, copper surged to a 5-month high while tin jumped after Indonesia reported decline in exports in August. US oil prices erased gains made earlier in the day as oil inventories unexpectedly increased despite shutdown of the Enbridge pipeline during the week. WTI crude oil for November delivery ended the day at 74.71, down -0.35%. Prices for oil products also dropped with heating oil and gasoline losing -0.61% and -0.96% respectively.

The US house price index surprisingly contracted -0.5% m/m in July, following a downwardly revised -1.2% decline in the prior month. The market had anticipated a milder drop of -0.1%. Moreover, the MBA's new purchase mortgage applications index plunged3.3% last week, with the 4-week average down -37% y/y. The readings reminded investors the vulnerability of the housing market and would be taken as a factor pushing the Fed closer to further easing. The dollar tumbled, weakening against major currencies except for Canadian dollar. EURUSD added more than +1% despite disappointments from Eurozone's industrial orders and consumer confidence index. GBPUSD climbed +0.3% even though the BOE minutes hinted the central bank might move towards further easing.

Shrugging off the threat of further intervention, Japanese yen rose for a 3rd day against the US dollar. Concerning commodity currencies, AUDUSD hit a 2-year high and is approaching parity as RBA signaled further rate hike might be earlier than market forecasts. NZDUSD also edged higher yesterday but gains were erased in Asian session today as 2Q10 GDP growth missed expectations. Canadian dollar was the only major currency that fell against the US dollar yesterday. Canada's retail sales contracted -0.1% n/n in July after gaining +0.1% in the prior month. The market had anticipated a growth of +0.6%. Excluding auto, the decline extended to -0.5% from -0.3% in June.

Currently hovering around 74/75, crude oil price has dropped almost -6% year to date and around -15% from this year high of 87.15. However, OPEC appears satisfied with the price. The group will be meeting on October 14 but OPEC President Wilson Pastor said there are ‘no plans to change OPEC policies regarding production or prices… The world economy is growing, it's exiting the recession and as the economy grows, that will go hand in hand with robust growth in oil prices'. The comment was made although the group downwardly revised the 2011 demand forecast for its oil output earlier this month. Notwithstanding expansion in non OPEC production and abundant inventories in advanced economies, many OPEC members have been producing exceeding their quotas. In August, the 11 members bearing quotas produced 26.80M bpd, compared with the limit of 24.85M bpd. Compliance level climbed slightly to 53.5% from 52.6% in July but remained significantly lower than78.6% in March 2009.

Nigeria's Petroleum Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke said the country will ask OPEC to increase its quota from 1.673M bpd. The country produced 2.01M bpd in August. In our opinion, lack of commitment from OPEC members to control production in an environment of high oil inventory and flaggy demand in advanced economies would damp the outlook of crude oil price.

Courtesy of ONG Focus.....

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Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Is Exxon The #1 Oil Stock

Dan Dicker, senior contributor for TheStreet, breaks down oil's recent rally and defends his love for Exxon.



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Saturday, September 11, 2010

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Sept. 11th

From the staff at Oil N' Gold.....

After staying in range for most of the week, crude oil's rebound form 70.76 resumed on Friday and jumped to as high as 76.73. Initial bias will remain mildly on the upside this week for further rebound. Though, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 82.97 to 70.76 at 78.31 and bring resumption of fall from 82.97. Below 73.88 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Also, Sustained trading below 70.76/71.09 support zone will confirm our bearish view that whole rebound from 64.23 is finished at 82.97 already and target another low below 64.23.

In the bigger picture, choppy rebound from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 only and has possibly finished at 82.97 already. Decisive break of 71.09 will confirm this bearish case and also indicate that whole fall from 87.15 is resuming for 60 psychological level, (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18, 100% projection of 87.15 to 64.23 from 82.97 at 60.05). Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 87.15 is developing into a powerful impulsive wave and would target 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 82.97 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish in crude oil.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Chart

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Friday, September 10, 2010

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.58 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and would open the door for additional gains near term. If October renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 75.96
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.03

Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 74.70

First support is the reaction low crossing at 72.63
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.53

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Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.58 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.52
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.58

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 73.78

First support is the reaction low crossing at 70.76
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35

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