Gold Extends Consolidation Giving Silver Another Chance

Gold and silver exchange leading roles in the market quite often, especially on the short term charts. Last time I wrote about it silver saved gold from collapse at the start of this month. The white metal unexpectedly bounced off the earlier low reversing the drop of the yellow metal.

This time gold took the lead as its failure to break below the Bear Flag let silver lick its wounds and return above the $14 handle.

Get These Articles in Your Inbox Daily....Right Here

Both metals are still trapped in the middle of the range set by the earlier heavy drop, which first occurred in gold and then it was repeated in the silver market. In this post, I have focused on the local structure as the bigger picture remains unchanged.

The top metal couldn’t break below the trendline support of a Bear Flag (orange) and then quickly restored most of its losses coming back above $1200. It is interesting that the forecasted drop unfolded quite differently in each metal. Silver tagged the earlier trough, but gold failed even to breach the vertically sloped trendline. It looks like strong demand appeared right at the round number of the gold price in the $1200 area.

This move up could build another leg of a prolonged correction, which is labeled as third 3rd (blue line) on the chart. The target for this leg is located on the upside of the trend channel ($1260-$1270), and it perfectly matches with the earlier top established this July. It is worth to mention that the triple legged corrections are not as regular as simple AB/CD double leg moves.

Currently, gold shows signs of a minor correction, therefore, I put the Fibonacci retracement levels to highlight the area where the last move up within the 3rd leg up could emerge. This area is located between $1209 and $1213, and it coincides with the trendline support contact point.

The break below $1190 is needed to invalidate the current growth structure.

Silver has a lot of tricks on the chart, and from the very beginning of this horizontal consolidation, I was puzzled to break down the initial structure, although gold has been hinting clearly at the large consolidation in both metals. The main assistant of the trader is time, as more time passes, the chart the structure of the instrument becomes clearer.

As gold didn’t confirm the end of the consolidation, then we should consider the continuation of it for silver as well despite that it retested the earlier low to establish the fresh one at $13.88.

It looks like we got a very complex BC junction, which consists of two counter-trend moves down (small red down arrows). The complexity emerged due to the additional pro-trend (counter-trend relative to red down arrows) sub-junction (small blue up arrows), which let silver synchronize the move with gold as earlier it has been lagging. What was considered to be a second CD leg up, turned out to be a lesser degree CD leg up of a sub-junction. The complexity of the silver chart structure was caused by the unstable nature of the market demand as central banks favor gold, and only cross-market bargain hunters eliminate the excessive miscorrelation.

The second leg (CD segment) up could finally retest the $15 round level to complete this large flat correction. The minor correction that started at the end of last week already hit below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($14.21) and could dip further to the $14 round level as gold have more room down for the same minor retracement.

The drop below $13.88 would terminate this leg up.

Aibek Burabayev
Contributor, Metals

Is this ETF Laying the Foundation for a Rally in Crude Oil?

Picking bottoms is not something one should do if you're going to be a successful trader. But looking at market that may be forming a bottom is a good exercise, and one that you should be doing on a regular basis. I had done this before gold reversed to the upside traded over $1300 an ounce. Maybe it's time to look at crude oil and see if it's beginning to set itself up for a move to the upside.

Technically, the Trade Triangles remain negative on crude oil, so there is no reversal showing up with those technical tools. The story is a little bit different with the RSI indicator. This particular indicator is showing that there is a big positive divergence on the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (PACF:XLE), and it is one that spans months.

Today I'm looking at the ETF XLE and the fact that if it closes higher for the week, it will be a positive sign. The previous week saw a very important Japanese candlestick formation call a "Dragon Fly Doji" this can be interpreted as a strong indication of reversal. It all depend's on how XLE closes this Friday.

Should XLE close higher than ($76.56) the market will have created a "Bullish Engulfing Line" confirming that the previous weeks, "Dragon Fly Doji" was indeed a reversal to the upside.

Take a look at both charts, one is a daily graph showing a large positive divergence on the RSI indicator. The other graph is a weekly Candlestick chart highlighting the “Dragon Fly Doji” and the potential for a “Bullish Engulfing Line” to occur this week.

So here is my 3 step strategy for the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (PACF:XLE):

1. I'm going to watch this market closely and have it on my radar.

2. I want to watch the 50 line on the RSI. A close over this line will be another important clue and strong indication that this market is bottoming or has bottomed out.

3. I'm also watching the weekly Trade Triangle on crude oil, should this Trade Triangle turn green, you'll want to BUY XLE, as it closely tracks crude oil.

Now let's see how the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (PACF:XLE) does in the future.

Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

Get all of Adams articles in your inbox and it's FREE....Just Click Here!

Top Dividend Plays – Profit in a Bull Market, Protect Yourself in a Bear Market and Collect Dividends Along the Way!

When your babysitter knows that the market is on a roll, there is no question it’s a bull market! It may also be time to keep an eye out for a correction. No one knows when a correction will take place and you don’t want to miss gains in a bull market.

So what do you do?

Easy! Continue buying good companies with outstanding fundamentals, but look for “defensive” sectors and throw in some outstanding dividend payouts for good measure.

In this complimentary INO.com special report they reveal an ETF that’s loaded with the best and most consistent dividend paying companies. And here’s the best part: all of the companies listed in this ETF have to boast a record of increasing dividends for at least 20 consecutive years (not a typo).

As an added bonus, you’ll also receive their favorite dividend stock. This stock boasts a mind blowing dividend record backed by some of the strongest fundamentals around.

Don’t miss out, just click here to view this complimentary report today!

See you in the markets!

Ray C. Parrish
aka The Crude Oil Trader

Is this a "Bearish Outside Reversal" in Natural Gas?

June Natural Gas (NG.M14.E) opened sharply higher in Sunday evenings session, but since the open prices plummeted to a 5 day low. The sell off confirmed a bearish outside reversal ahead of today's U.S. session. June Natural Gas futures remain under pressure from last week's EIA storage report that showed a larger than expected supply build of 82 bcf. Recent weather forecasts have been calling for warmer temperatures across the country which could limit the size of upcoming supply injections.

In recent weeks, we have been in a sideways trend in the June Natural Gas Market as the market decides on which direction it is headed next. The technical analysis in Natural Gas points to bearish in the near term, making way for a potential swing trading opportunity.

In today's trading session, I will be looking to sell June Natural Gas futures at 4.660, or a breach of the 20 Day Moving Average. This breach would confirm the outside reversal in today’s trading session. My first downside target would be 4.500, a recent area of support in the market, at which point I would roll stops to break even. If the 4.500 are is hit, then I would look at 4.380 as my next target, which would be support from the long term trendline. To mitigate risk on the trade, stop loss orders should be placed just above today’s trading range and rolled behind the trade accordingly.

See you in the market!
 Posted courtesy of James Leeney and our trading partners at INO.com



Subscribe to our Free Market Technical Analysis and Commentary

 

Chart of The Week - June Crude Oil Futures

As the week starts, our attention turns to the June Crude Oil futures (NYMEX:CL.M14.E). After gaining nearly $7/barrel in less than a month, the market has recently consolidated around $103.50/barrel as it begins to decide which direction it will take. It appears that some of the recent slowing of the market is due to profit taking, as the recent sharp up trend may have gained too much too soon.

There are a number of fundamental factors at play in the market, many of which seem to work in contrast with each other: support from Russia-Ukraine uncertainty, resistance from ample supply concerns, and improved demand prospects following solid U.S. Economic data last week. With a number of different fundamental factors in play – and uncertainty over which fundamental factor the market will focus on moving forward – I will focus on the technical aspects of the market for a potential trading opportunity.

Thursday’s range last week was consolidated within the previous day’s range and a move above or below that range should give us good direction to go off of. The market has started off weak this morning, and being close to $105/barrel resistance, I think that a correction off of this recent move is the more likely direction.

In the case of a move below last Thursday’s low print of 102.75, I would be a seller in this market as it will have broken this consolidation. If filled, I would place a protective stop order above Thursday’s high of $103.92. My short term target would be back down to the recent up trend line, rolling stops behind the position accordingly.

To take advantage of this move with a long term viewpoint, I would look to purchase relatively inexpensive call options and option spreads where risk on the position is limited to what you pay for the option.

Each week our trading partners at INO.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.


Sign up for one of our Free Trading Webinars....Just Click Here!

Weekly Energy Markets Recap with Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of INO.com to give our Crude Oil Trader readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.....

Energy futures had a volatile trading week as usual with crude oil basically finishing unchanged this Friday afternoon at 94.10 still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average with very little chart structure with giant swings to the upside and to the downside with a possible double top around $97 and if you’re looking to get short this market my recommendation would be to put a stop above 97.35 in case the market does rally settling last Friday at 96.30 basically unchanged for the trading week.

Heating oil futures for the June contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average after hitting a 4 week high last Monday down for the 4th consecutive day as we enter the summer when demand for heating oil generally lightens so I’m still not bullish this commodity but I’m still advising traders to basically sit on the sidelines in crude oil and in heating oil.

And look at unleaded gas which is still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 2.90 with major support 2.70 down 800 points for the week currently trading at 2.84 and I do believe that a bottom has occurred in unleaded gas prices as we enter the demand season in the next couple of months.

The commodity markets have been extremely volatile in recent weeks with the U.S dollar hitting contract highs a couple of days back, however crude oil and its products have held up very well despite all the negative news with record inventories here in the United States they continue to hang near recent highs and I just wonder how long that is going to continue especially in heating oil & crude oil.

Trend: Sideways – Chart structure improving


Join our FREE Newsletter Today!


The Bible for Commodity Traders....Get our free eBook now!

Is it finally time to go long coffee?

If you have been following us you know we have been adding to our long coffee position using ticker "JO". Are you on board or do you see coffee going lower. Coffee bears have gained back some momentum the last couple of days. Today we've asked our friend Jim Robinson at INO.com to provide his expert analysis of the coffee trade to our readers. Each week he'll be be analyzing a different chart for us using our Trade Triangles and his experience.....

Coffee could be turning bullish, so this week let's take a look at the Coffee Chart. With Futures we use the weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle for trend, and the daily MarketClub Trade Triangle for timing.

*    Coffee put in a weekly green Trade Triangle on what looks to be the breakout to the upside of the base.

*   Coffee put in a daily red Trade Triangle on what looks to be a test of the base.

*   If Coffee trades higher and puts in a green daily Trade Triangle odds would be with bulls.

The MACD made a bullish momentum divergence at the lows and is currently on a buy signal, which supports the bullish case for Coffee as of right now. If Coffee were to continue lower from here and puts in a red weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle, then odds would not be with the bullish case for Coffee any more.

So even though it looks to be a big bullish opportunity for Coffee, we'll just have to sit back and let the market tell us what to do next. So this looks to be a great Chart to Watch right now, as exciting things could be happening on the upside in Coffee soon.




Just click here to get a FREE trial of the Trade Triangle Technology that we are using!


The Bible for Commodity Traders....Get our free eBook now!

Gold Chart of The Week

After the worst weekly decline of the year in US equities, we are slowly on the mend as we enter a week full of FED activity.

A few standouts from last week included a terrible Non Farm Payroll number on Friday and a full throttle campaign from the BOJ to continue to crush the Yen. Fridays jobs number was a big miss as 88,000 jobs were added and some real numbers regarding the drop in individuals that are actively looking for jobs was revealed. Even after these figures were announced, the stock indexes were only rattled for a short period of time before the realization that the FED will step up Quantitative Easing set back in. Since then, the stock market seems to be holding up fairly well.

The Japanese Yen had a wild week last week after the BOJ doubled down on its asset purchase program and effectively wiped out two week’s worth of recovery, and more. I think it will be interesting to see how the Yen responds to this weeks FOMC announcement that will be held on Wednesday.

The week ahead of us may be tricky as Wednesday’s Interest Rate decision looms. Traders will be less concerned about the actual rate decision, and will focus on the language used by Bernanke and other FED members throughout the week. The standout will be Bernanke’s view on the amount and the length of time the FED plans to participate in easing the market.

Keep in mind that in last month’s report, the FED maintained its focus on the labor market and we also saw a less divided FED panel on the length of Quantitative Easing. After a big miss in the Non Farm Payroll, it would be difficult to expect anything but a more aggressive campaign to keep Interest Rates row in an effort to stimulate growth.

After Wednesdays news, the markets will begin to use this information along with first quarter earnings and Fridays Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence numbers. Overall, this week should be very active for the US markets as well as commodities like Gold. The question for Gold prices is whether last week’s drop to test last Summers low is actually the low. I think after Wednesday, we should have the information necessary to make a confident decision.

The chart shows last week’s test of support, which will continue to be the focal point as Wednesdays FOMC announcement comes to pass.




Posted courtesy of Brian Booth and the staff at INO.com

Susan Jackson: Trade Triangles Show Crude Oil and U.S. Dollar Falling Together

In today's video we have INO.com's own Susan Jackson analyzing the major markets including fall of crude oil and the U.S. Dollar.

Unlimited access to this and other trading videos FREE! Click Here!

Share

Adam Hewison: Try it … You’ll like it

From guest blogger Adam Hewison....

Dear Crude Oil Trader readers,

I noticed that a lot of folks who are posting questions on our blog are not yet members of MarketClub. Since many of the Trader’s Blog posts revolve around our premium service, I feel as if you’re missing out on the full benefit of the information that is posted.

To solve this problem, I would like to invite you to take a risk-free 30 day trial to our service.

Once you are a member, I have no doubt that you will appreciate exactly how powerful and easy MarketClub is to use.

I am also including THREE bonuses just for trying out MarketClub today. These bonuses are yours to keep even if you decide that MarketClub is not for you.

You have nothing to lose and everything to gain, so why not give it a try? What could be fairer than that?

Here’s the link that you need to get started.

Every success using MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub


Share

Has the ‘Gold Bull’ finally arrived?

Is this the Gold move we’ve all been waiting for?

Is the big move finally here? With so many stops and starts in the gold market, it’s hard to know which way is up.

We’re only going to leave this online for a short time. Given the state of the current economy, things move quickly. If the video isn’t watched soon, it won’t be of any use to you. So I urge you to take a few minutes to watch the possible outlooks for gold on the upside.

There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with my compliments. I highly recommend watching this video today otherwise you risk missing out on what could be the move of the year.

Just Click Here to enjoy the video.

Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY...Click Here

Crude Oil Higher on Light Short Covering and Consolidation

Crude oil was steady to slightly higher due to light short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline, the 50% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 58.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.00 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Monday's pivot point for crude oil, our line in the sand is 59.83

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 63.89
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.00

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 58.72
Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 58.58

4 FREE Videos for INO TV! Click Here

Trend Analysis For DXO Mid Day Tuesday

Mid Day Trend Analysis For DXO is clearly in an uptrend

Smart Scan Chart Analysis is showing some near term weakness. However, this market remains in the confines of a longer term uptrend Uptrend with tight money management stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, DXO scored +70 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10.....Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
+15.....New 3 Day High on Monday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending March 28th
-30.....New 3 Month Low in February
+70.....Total Score

The SP 500 and Crude Oil.....Two Markets, Going In Two Different Directions

In our new video we are going to be looking at two different markets that are headed in two different directions.

We recently looked at the equity markets and alerted you to some very important levels that we thought the markets would have problems with. Those levels have now been reached and it remains to be seen if we are going to see the kind of market action that we were looking for.

Click Here To Watch Video

The second market were looking at is the crude oil market. This market has recently come alive to the upside and bear watching.

This is a short video, but it may contain the blueprint for these two markets. No registration is required to watch this video.

Can The U.S. Economy Survive $80.00 Crude Oil

We have been saying for some time that the U.S. economy has found itself in the position that if oil spikes again even those that work will not be able to afford to drive, better yet the millions of unemployed. And that includes major industry.

For the first time since September of 2007, the crude oil (NYME_CL) market has flashed a positive signal that it is headed higher. This is the first buy signal that we have seen in over 18 months in the energy markets.

The big question is, if crude oil is headed higher, how much of a price increase can the US economy afford and withstand?

Find out here:Watch Video

Here is a raw commodity that is used by everyone and the U.S. has no control over. This key commodity to commerce just happens to be in areas that are normally hostile to the US. If we see a hiccup in the supply chain that changes this market dynamic, even for a short time period, we could see oil move back to the $80/barrel range in a heart beat.

So how will this affect the US equity markets? If crude oil heads back to the $75-$80 range, I expect that the major indices will head south. I call it the 551 syndrome. 5000 on the Dow, 500 on the S&P 500, and finally 1000 on the NASDAQ.

In this short video we will share with you the potential target zones we could see in the next 6 to 12 months in crude oil.

So with the trend in crude oil in a positive trajectory and the trend in the US equity markets in a negative trajectory, I think the two will feed off themselves. Look for traders and hedge funds to move aggressively in both these areas with abandon.

Lastly with no reinstatement of the up-tick rule, expect stocks to once again get pummeled to oblivion.

Find out here:Watch Video

The Trade Triangle - Trade The Market, Not The Economy

Click here For Free Video

What do we mean when we say... trade the market and not the economy? It may sound like we are saying to trade the same thing... but in many cases they're different. The difference is that the market is driven by fear and greed, while the economy is driven by fundamentals. Our "Trade Triangle" technology allows us to analyze the market... leaving the fundamentals and our own emotions at the door. Let's look at some of the major markets and see which direction the trend is headed.

* The equity markets are still in a negative trend.

* Crude oil is still in a negative trend.

* Gold is in an erratic upward trend.

* The dollar is also in an erratic upward trend.

All of these markets are still in entrenched trends and there is no reason to suggest that they will be reversing anytime soon.

We have just finished a short video on crude oil (NYMEX:CL). This market is making moves, which we will tell you all about using the "Trade Triangle" technology.

We recently received a trading signal in this market which I think is an important one. You will also get a chance to see several of the previous signals that were issued. The video is definitely worth watching for that benefit alone.

The silly season which we talked about in December is rapidly coming to a close. We would expect that the volume and liquidity will return to the markets by the 15th of January. So get ready... cause there is money to be made.

Click Here To Enjoy The Video

Trade the market and not the economy.

Jump Start Your Trading, Get Market Club Today

For those of you that have not given it a try, MarketClub is a tool that I use as well as thousands of other self directed traders use. Here is a link that gives you 2 free months.

Click here to see what helps me succeed

Also, INO will be adding dozens of top experts and might be raising the price in the New Year, so get a yearly membership and take advantage of the new authors to be added in 2009.

Click here to take advantage of 2008 INO.Com pricing