Showing posts with label Saudis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Saudis. Show all posts

Sunday, October 11, 2015

The Real Reason for the Refugee Crisis You Won’t Hear About in the Media

By Nick Giambruno

There’s a meme going around that the refugee crisis in Europe (the largest since World War II) is part of a secret plot to subvert the West. I completely understand why the locals in any country wouldn’t be happy about waves of foreigners pouring in. Especially if they’re poor, unskilled, and not likely to assimilate.

It leads to huge problems. Infrastructure gets strained. More people are sucking at the teat of the welfare system. The unwelcome newcomers compete for bottom of the ladder jobs. Things easily turn nasty and then turn violent. But the idea that the refugee crisis in Europe is part of a hidden agenda - rather than a predictable outcome - strikes me as strange. And it’s a notion that conveniently deflects blame away from the people and factors that deserve it.

Interventions Destabilize the Middle East

The civil war in Syria has turned the country into a refugee maker. Syria’s neighbors have reached their physical limit on their ability to absorb refugees. That’s one of the reasons so many are heading to the West. Lebanon has received over 1 million Syrian refugees. That’s an enormous number for a country with a population of only 4 million - a 25% increase. Jordan and Turkey also have millions of Syrian refugees.

They’re saturated.

The number of refugees heading to the West, by contrast, is in the hundreds of thousands. So far. But it’s not just Syria that’s sending refugees. Many more come from Iraq and Afghanistan, two other countries shattered by bungled Western military interventions. Then there are the refugees from Libya. A country the media and political establishment would rather forget because it represents another disastrous military decision. Actually, it’s not just Libyan refugees. It’s refugees from all of Africa who are using Libya as a transit point to reach Europe.

Before his overthrow by NATO, Muammar Gaddafi had an agreement with Italy, which is directly to Libya’s north, across the Mediterranean Sea. Gaddafi agreed to prevent refugees heading for Europe from using Libya as a transit point. It was an arrangement that worked. So it’s no shocker that when NATO helped a coalition of ambitious rebels overthrow the Gaddafi government, the refugee floodgates opened.
When there’s war, there are refugees. It’s a predictable outcome.

It’s like kicking a bees’ nest and being surprised that bees fly out. Nobody should be surprised when that happens. And nobody should be surprised that people are fleeing war zones in Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

If Western governments didn’t want a refugee crisis, they shouldn’t have been so eager to topple those governments and destabilize those countries. The refugees should camp out in the backyards of the individuals who run those governments. I also have to mention the Saudis. They were very much involved in the Libyan war. They’ve also devoted themselves to ousting the Assad government in Syria, for geopolitical and sectarian reasons.

Then there’s the war in Yemen that the Saudis have sponsored. It’s another mess the media doesn’t discuss often. But it will likely produce even more refugees. The Saudis make no secret about not welcoming refugees, even though the Kingdom is a primary instigator of the wars that are forcing people to flee their homelands. One reason is the Saudis don’t want more people leeching off their welfare system, especially amid budget crunches from lower oil prices.

This brings up another interesting point. For the first time in decades, observers are calling into question the viability of the Saudi currency peg of 3.75 riyals per US dollar. The Saudi government spends a ton of money on welfare to keep its citizens sedated. But with lower oil prices cutting deep into government revenue, there’s less money to spend on welfare. Then there’s the cost of the wars in Yemen and Syria.

There’s a serious crunch in the Saudi budget. They’ve only been able to stay afloat by draining their foreign exchange reserves. That threatens their currency peg. The next clue that there’s trouble is Saudi officials telling the media that the currency peg is fine and there’s nothing to worry about. An official government denial is almost always a sign of the opposite. It’s like the old saying…“believe nothing until it has been officially denied.”

If there were a convenient way to short the Saudi riyal, I would do it in a heartbeat.

Don’t Give the Welfare State a Pass

It’s no coincidence that the refugees are flowing to the countries with the most generous welfare benefits, especially Germany and the Scandinavian nations. If there weren’t so many freebies in these countries, there wouldn’t be so many refugees showing up to collect them.

The whole refugee crisis was easily predictable. It was the foreseeable consequence of shortsighted interventions in the Middle East and the welfare state policies of nearby Europe. Instead of facing facts, blaming it all on a scheme to subvert the West conveniently deflects any responsibility from the authors of the mess.

If the individuals who run Western governments really wanted to solve the refugee problem, they would throttle way back on welfare state policies and then stay out of the Middle East free for all. It’s really as simple as that. But don’t count on the mainstream media to figure this out. They effectively operate as an organ of the State. I bet they’ll keep prescribing more of the same bad medicine that caused this crisis to begin with.

This will help to cover the tracks of the real perpetrators, and it will obscure other real problems. I expect the media to ramp up the “blame the foreigner” sentiment, as it helps the US and EU governments distract the anger of their citizens from the sputtering economy and the shrinking of their civil liberties. From the politicians’ perspective, it’s a win win. But it’s a lose lose for citizens hoping for accountable government.

And this brings up another uncomfortable truth for Americans and Europeans. The way the political and economic winds are blowing, things could get much worse. Central banks around the globe have created the biggest financial bubble in world history. The social and political implications of this bubble bursting are even more dangerous than the financial consequences.

An economic depression and currency inflation (perhaps hyperinflation) are very much in the cards. These things rarely lead to anything but bigger government, less freedom, and shrinking prosperity. Sometimes they lead to much worse.

One day the shoe could be on the other foot. We could see American and European refugees fleeing to South America or other havens to escape the problems in their home countries. It would be an ironic twist.
Now, this outcome isn’t inevitable. But the chance it will happen isn’t zero, either, and the risk seems to grow each day.

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The article was originally published at internationalman.com.


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Saturday, January 3, 2015

Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Summary with Mike Seery

Crude oil futures are lower this Friday afternoon currently trading in the February contract at 52.60 a barrel after hitting new lows earlier in the trading session trading as low as $52 a barrel and if you’re still short this market the chart structure is improving tremendously so continue to place your stop loss at the 10 day high which stands at 58.53 and that stop will be lowered next week as well as volatility certainly has slowed down in recent weeks due to the holidays.

Crude oil futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I never try to catch a falling knife as this market continues to move lower and that is why I will continue to move my stop to the 10 day high allowing you to try to take advantage of much of the move as possible as nobody knows how low prices could go.

The problem with oil is two fold as the 1st is that we have record supplies and the 2nd is the U.S dollar is hitting another all time year high once again pushing most commodity prices lower but it’s really all about the oversupply issue as the United States is now an exporter with record domestic supplies at the current time, however if you are currently not short this market you have missed the boat and I would sit on the sidelines and look for another market at the current time.

Ever since Thanksgiving when the Saudis announced that they will not cut production prices have been in a free fall and that’s terrific for consumers as gasoline prices in many parts of the country are under $2 a gallon which is remarkable in my opinion happening in such a quick period of time, however prices have been lower in the past so do not try to buy this market in my opinion as I still remain bearish.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Gold futures in the February contract witnessed another extremely volatile trading session with another $20 trading range currently trading up $4 at 1,188 after trading as low as 1,167 earlier in the session as the U.S dollar hit another multi-year high pressuring many the commodity prices, however bottom feeders appeared thinking that gold was overdone to the downside.

Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market waiting for better chart structure to develop as the market is just too volatile in my opinion, however if you are bearish this market I would sell at today’s price while placing my stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,210 risking around $23 or $2,300 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is relatively solid at the current time.

Gold futures remain in a long term downtrend as investors are still putting money into the S&P 500 and out of the precious metals especially with a strong U.S dollar which looks to head higher in my opinion and with worldwide problems cooling down especially with Russia there’s really no reason to own gold at the current time.

Gold futures traded over the last 2 months in a price range between $1,140-$1,240 and now around mid-range so I’m waiting for a trend to develop as traders are waiting next Friday’s monthly unemployment report which should send even more volatility into this market so make sure if you are in the futures market that you use the proper amount contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as this market is high risk.
Trend: Lower
Chart Stucture: Excellent

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Tuesday, October 7, 2014

New Video: Obama’s Abandoning the Saudis for Iran and Dooming the Petrodollar

By Alex Daley, Chief Technology Investment Strategist

I sat down with Jim Rickards, author of many best selling economics and investing books, including his latest, titled The Death of Money. In this exclusive interview, Jim shares his view on the changes in U.S. foreign policy—the newly announced partnership with Iran to help fight ISIS and recent moves away from the petrodollar deal with Saudi Arabia—and what they mean for the dollar, gold, and investment markets in general.

This interview just scratches the surface of the topics Jim covered in his speech at the most recent Casey Research Summit in San Antonio. You can grab a complete recording of that speech, and all 25 of the others, in the Summit Audio Collection, which is on sale with a juicy preorder discount for just a few more days.



Alex Daley
Chief Technology Investment Strategist
Casey Research



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Monday, October 10, 2011

Phil Flynn: Bail Out Bonanza

Another day, another bailout and yes, bailouts are bullish! Another plan to save Europe and rising expectations of the US economy has oil back on an upward track. Oil got an initial bounce off of a jobs report that seemed to suggest that we are not in a recession. Yet after a surprise downgrade of Italy and Spain, oil took a late drop. Holy Fitch! Yet over the weekend German Chancellor Angel Merkel said that Germany and Spain have a plan to bail out European banks. Well at the very least they have a plan to make a plan and the details will be forthcoming. Huh? Well no matter, enjoy the ride!

Plus there are reports that the French-Belgian bank Dexia agreed to the nationalization of its Belgian banking division and secured 90 billion euros or $121 billion dollars in state guarantees. Now it appears that other banks in Europe will be backed by the governments in an effort to forestall an economic collapse. Bloomberg News reported that Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy turned their crisis fighting focus to banks, promising a recapitalization blueprint this month that will overtake a 12 week old rescue plan that has yet to be put into place. “We will recapitalize the banks,” the French president said in Berlin yesterday at a joint briefing with the German chancellor without providing details. “We’ll do it in complete agreement with our German friends because the economy needs it, to assure growth and financing.”

Of course the recent drop in crude oil price may cause some to change their long term demand forecasts and their outlook for future production capacity as well! The Saudis announced that they have put on hold their expansion of oil production capacity. The Saudis had planned to add another 2.5 million barrels of day of capacity to meet growing global demand. That would have the Saudi's production capacity at around 15 million barrels per day. The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Khalid Al Falih said, "There is no reason for Saudi Aramco to pursue 15 million barrels (of output capacity),"It is difficult to see (an increase in capacity) because there are too many variables happening," he said. "You've got too many announcements about massive capacity expansions coming out of countries like Brazil, coming out of countries like Iraq.

The market demand is addressed by others." He went on to say, "Our objective is not to grow our production for the sake of growing our production," Falih said, "but to be there for the market if the market needs it, and we are waiting to see what happens on the supply side as well as how demand stabilizes. Our planning horizons are in the decades and most of our investments are investments that will do very well at the end of an economic recession so we will pursue them ... regardless of what happens in Europe or in the U.S.," he said.

Now some peak freaks will claim the real reason is because the Saudis can't raise production because they are running out of oil. Yet the truth is that they are worried that an increase in capacity will put downward pressure on price at a time when global demand is faltering.


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