Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery for Week Ending June 6th

We've asked Michael Seery of to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. Mike has been a Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.......

Crude oil futures traded in a very tight range this week going out this Friday at 102.70 finishing slightly higher as the volatility is extremely low at the current time as I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market as I do think prices are headed higher but the trend is very weak and I must find another market that is trending stronger. If you look at the chart over the last 6 months longer term it’s still in a bullish trend with the possibility of retesting last Augusts high during the Syrian crisis around 110/112 a barrel as economies around the world are improving and this is supporting the crude oil market with the S&P 500 at all time highs once again today as the United States added 217,000 new jobs which are all supporting crude oil prices so I’d be looking at buying on dips rather than selling on rallies.

If you’re looking to get into this market one recommendation would be if your bullish crude oil prices & think that prices bottomed in yesterday’s trade I would buy today at 102.70 while placing my stop below yesterday’s low which is also the 10 day low at 101.70 risking $1,000 per contract and if you’re looking to get short this market my recommendation would be to sell today’s price while placing my stop above the 10 day high which is 104.20 risking around $1,500 per contract as the chart structure is excellent because of low volatility.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Gold futures in the August contract traded in a very tight and narrow trading range this week going out last Friday at 1,246 and settling this Friday at 1,251 up about $5 for the week, however I’m still recommending a short position when prices broke below 1,267 placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,290 risking around $40 or $4,000 per contract from today’s price levels. Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that trend is lower as major support is at 1,240 and if that level is broken I would think you have to retest 1,200 as the same old story continues with the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs once again as money is coming out of the gold sector into equities and I think that trend is going to continue especially with low interest rates staying around for quite some time. At the current time there are no geopolitical events that one must rush into the gold market with the stock market continuing its trend higher it’s difficult for gold to rally at this time so I do see lower prices ahead but make sure you do place your stop loss at the 2 week high in case the trend does change as an investor or trader you always must have an exit strategy.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

The S&P 500 continues its bullish momentum trading up another 8 points at 1947 and I continue to harp on the fact that this market is going higher due to several bullish fundamental reasons including stock buybacks, increasing dividends, a Federal government that want higher equity prices while maintaining extremely low interest rates so this is the perfect storm to the upside in the S&P 500 continuing its bullish trend to the upside. S&P 500 futures contract is trading far above its 20 & 100 day moving average with outstanding chart structure I’ve been recommending buying this market for quite some time and I still believe that prices will move higher as this Monday morning as Apple Computer will split 7 to 1 and I think that will bring even more buying pushing this market higher once again as I think 2000 is in the cards in the S&P in the next couple of months and I do believe that the NASDAQ 100 will hit all-time highs breaking above 5000 this year so continue to play this to the upside and if you’re lucky enough to get any type of dip take advantage while placing your stop below the 10 day low of 1880.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Coffee futures in the September contract are up 300 points this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 174.60 still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average with relatively low volatility with major support right at the 170 level which is been hit on 6 different occasions and bounces off every single time as traders are awaiting estimates on the Brazilian crop currently being harvested and that will certainly send high volatility back into this market. Coffee prices settled last Friday at 180 finishing down around 500 points for the week continuing its short-term down trend and I’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a buying opportunity around the 165 level as I do think prices to the downside are limited as I still have many contacts in Brazil telling me that they think 43 million bags is on the high estimate but only time will tell so keep a close eye on this market as the sleeping giant will wake once again in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

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Weekly Futures Recap with Mike Seery

We’ve asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude oil futures continued their downward trend finishing lower by $1.75 a barrel in the December contract closing last Friday at 97.80 and going out this Friday at 94.50 a barrel hitting a 4 month low. Crude oil prices have declined in the last 4 consecutive trading days as the next major resistance is at 91 and I have been recommending a short position in this market for quite some time and I do think prices are headed lower as there is a global supply glut of crude oil with slowing demand and rising inventories. This is the 1st time I can remember in many years where the stock market & crude oil prices are going in opposite directions which tells me the stock market is starting to benefit from lower gas prices as the unemployment rate still remains relatively high keeping demand low.

When I recommended this trade a couple weeks ago it had excellent chart structure risking around $500 on the trade and this one continues to move lower so continue to place your stop at the 10 day high if you took my advice because I do think prices are headed under $90 a barrel within the next couple of weeks especially if the U.S dollar continues to move higher as it’s done in the last 2 trading sessions. Many of the commodity markets continue to move lower with crude oil acting as the leader as the characteristics in many commodities at this time is an oversupply which is pressuring prices currently but economies around the world are starting to improve & it will put a floor on prices, however crude oil in my opinion is headed sharply lower. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

The silver market finished unchanged today after hitting a 5 week high earlier in the week then selling off $1.00 in yesterday’s trade to settle today around 21.80 an ounce. The Federal Reserve will continue its bond buying for the foreseeable future therefore which is bullish silver in my opinion but what happened in yesterday’s trade was buy the rumor and sell the fact as I think prices are still headed higher. I have been recommending a long position in many previous blogs and I do think that silver will retest the summer highs of $25 dollars and head towards $30 an ounce possibly by Christmas time. Silver is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average signaling that the trend is getting stronger and with stronger economies around the world coupled with a weak U.S dollar silver gains may have just begun as I still think prices are cheap. Remember silver prices are down about 35% from their 52 week highs so there is room to run on the upside especially if the dollar drops another 300-500 points which is what the Federal Reserve is trying to accomplish and they are doing an excellent job I just wish they were as good at building websites as they are at printing money. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Coffee futures for the December contract continue to slump in New York right near a 5 year low as prices had been down 14 consecutive trading days currently at 105.55 a pound up 15 points in a lack luster trade today as prices look to break 100 and the next couple of weeks as supplies around the world are huge. The huge world production and harvest continuing in Vietnam pressuring prices as nobody has interest in buying coffee at this point and there is a real possibility of prices dropping to the 90 – 100 level and if prices do get down to the 90 level in my opinion I would start to be a buyer as eventually this market will turn around and all the bad news is already reflected in the price but it still looks weak at this time. Coffee is trading way below its 20 and 100 day moving average down over 400 points for the week continuing to be one of the best bear markets around. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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Weekly Commodities Recap with Mike Seery - Gold, Silver, Coffee, Sugar,

It's time for our weekly commodities market recap with our trading partner Mike Seery......

The gold market in the December contract sold off $30 dollars an ounce this week at 1,316 as the U.S dollar hit a fresh 10 month low not influencing gold prices just yet. Gold made a new 10 week low on the night session this week trading as low as 1,276 then rallied sharply as investors came rushing back into this market and I am still recommending to sick on the sidelines because of this choppy pattern where gold is down $40 dollars and the next day its up $30 but I still do think prices look weak and I think they still could re-test the summer lows around 1,200. If you are short the futures market in the December contract I would place my stop loss at 1,354 which was Mondays high minimizing your risk in case the trend changes. This market is very volatile with high risk so make sure you under trade meaning don’t lose more than 2% of your account balance on any given trade. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Silver futures ended down 12 cents for the week in the December contract at 21.72 an ounce and in my opinion the panic selling on October 1st for no reason might have created a spike low on the daily charts as the U.S dollar broke 80 for the 1st time in 10 months. As I’ve stated in many previous blogs I think investors should take advantage of big down days because silver has a lot of bullish fundamentals which in the long run could push prices higher, however gold still looks weak to me as money seems to be going into the stock market which was sharply higher today and out of gold lately which is also keeping a lid on silver prices here in the short term. The silver market is very sensitive to a strong or weak dollar and if you do some homework and look at some historical charts you will see a rising silver market when the U.S dollar declines. TREND: NEUTRAL–CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Sugar futures settled last Friday at 17.74 a pound going out today at 18.45 continuing its bullish trend hitting a 5 1/2 month high still trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average. Prices tumbled about 60 points last Friday just missing the 10 day low but then on Monday prices rallied about 60 points so if you’re still in this market I would still keep my stop below the 10 day low as prices have come alive to the upside as volatility has come back into this market. Sugar prices went up 4 straight days before profit taking took place finishing down 5 points at 18.48 and I think the next major resistance is around 19/19.50 as the U.S dollar is hitting 10 month lows which is starting to spur some commodity prices higher especially sugar. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Coffee futures this week continued their sideways trading action settling last Friday at 113.70 basically unchanged for the trading week settling at 114.15 a pound in the December contract and at this time there is very little interest in this market at this point as volatility is as low as I can ever remember historically. Coffee prices are right at 4 ½ year lows as huge crops around the world including Vietnam have put ample supplies onto the market which is why prices are so depressed at this time. If you are interested in getting long the coffee market I would look at call options at least 6 months out and buy them at the money limiting your risk to what the premium costs because premiums are historically cheap due to low volatility. The volatility in coffee at the present time is very small and I have been following coffee for 20 years and I believe volatility is going to come back into this sleeping giant and that usually means prices rise as interest comes back into the market. If you’re a longer term investor I would take advantage of coffee if prices dropped down into the 110 area remembering that coffee was trading at 300 just 3 years ago when supplies were much lower. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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Phil Flynn: Is QE2 A Sin?

The Fed may be trying to save the economy with the printing of more money but the poor battered US consumers are so far bearing the brunt of this economic policy and let’s face it, it is a SIN. At the last Fed meeting the Fed famously said that it was, “prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time”. What they didn’t want to tell you was that time was now. It was President Gerald Ford that wore Famous “Win” button which stood for “Whip Inflation Now”. The Fed now should wear a “SIN” button which stands for “Start Inflation Now” and the way the commodities markets have responded, it’s probably time that the Fed start doing penance and a few Hail Mary’s. Because let’s face it, this QE2 is basically a Hail Mary pass.

You see if the Fed policy does not shock and awe the economy out of its stupor, then we may have printed 2.1 trillion dollars for nothing and the only thing that we may have to show for it is higher prices of commodities. With an economy that is still struggling, those higher prices that may kill the consumer. You see it seems that not only is gold and silver rising but those esoteric inflation items that like to be swept under the rug and ignored by some economists are rising as well, like food and energy. Not to mention the proverbial and actual shirt off your back. Have you checked out cotton prices lately? Cotton prices are up 100 percent this year, gold up 29%, soybeans up 27%. QE2 hopes to create economic activity but the consumers may have to pull back as their wallets get squeezed. Take a look for example at the stats on gasoline. Gas prices soared, rising from a national average.......Read the entire article.



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