Showing posts with label weakness. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weakness. Show all posts

Friday, July 31, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Above Reaction High Crossing


Crude oil closed higher on Friday and above the previous reaction high crossing at 68.99 thereby renewing the rally off this month's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Despite today's rally, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish hinting that this rally is a corrective rebound.

If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 62.70 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 69.74
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 66.65
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.50

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Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that additional weakness is possible near term.

If September renews the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.261 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.045 are needed to renew the rally off this month's low.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.76
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.05

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.46
Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.23

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Monday, July 27, 2009

Waiting for Crude Oil to Reverse to the Downside


My optimal pullback target zone for the PowerShare DB Double Short Oil ETN (NYSE: DTO) is 82.00-79.00, which has been met today. However, so far the inability of the DTO to turn up with sustainability and leave little doubt that the correction off of the 7/13 high at 99.50 is complete is bothersome, and suggests perhaps that more corrective weakness is forthcoming ahead of my anticipation of a powerful upside pivot reversal.
Let’s notice that there is an unfilled gap from July 2 between 77.70 and 76.15 which might have to be satisfied.....Complete Story

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