CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow [Tuesday].
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Monday, July 6, 2009
Sharon Epperson: Where Is Oil Headed Tuesday
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Energy Market Summary For Monday
Crude oil closed down $2.36 at $64.37 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range and did hit a fresh six week low. The market was pressured again by concerns about a weak U.S. economy after last Thursday's jobs report. The bulls are fading badly.
Heating oil closed down 656 points at $1.6360 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh six week low today. Bulls are fading badly.
Unleaded gasoline closed down 408 points at $1.7500 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh six week low today. Bulls are fading badly.
Natural gas closed down 11.3 cents at $3.502 today. Prices closed near mid range and hit a fresh contract low today. Bears are in firm technical control again.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
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Crude Oil,
heating oil,
Natural Gas,
Stochastics,
unleaded gasoline
Oil Falls to Five Week Low, Gasoline Drops on Economic Concern
Crude oil fell to a five week low and gasoline declined on growing concern that the global economic recovery will falter, curbing fuel consumption. Oil dropped for a fourth day, the longest losing streak since February, as U.S., European and Asian stock markets declined. The dollar advanced against the euro, curbing the appeal of commodities to investors looking for an inflation hedge. Oil in New York is down 13 percent from an eight month high of $73.38 touched on June 30.....Complete Story
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Six Attacks on Natural Gas Pipelines.....IN CANADA!
A series of bombings of natural gas pipelines in northeastern British Columbia in Canada are "domestic terrorism," authorities said. The first attack was reported in early October. This past weekend, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police confirmed a sixth bombing caused a leak in an EnCana Corp. line south of Dawson Creek, British Columbia. No one has been injured in the bombings, but they have caused leaks that could prove hazardous, authorities said.....Complete Story
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Oil Plunges Below $64 on Fears Recovery May Lag
Oil prices plunged nearly $3 to below $64 a barrel Monday as dismal unemployment figures from the U.S. and Europe last week sparked investor doubts about any nascent economic recovery. A significant fall in natural gas prices - a likely sign that industries are still struggling and unlikely to add jobs - as well as gains by the U.S. dollar and falling stock markets around the world all helped push energy prices lower.....Complete Story
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Crude Oil Hits New Six Week Low Overnight
Crude oil prices are sharply lower early today, and hit a fresh six week low overnight. Bulls have faded badly recently.
In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $64.00 and then just above resistance at $65.00.
Look to sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $63.40 and then more sell stops just below support at $63.00.
Today's key near term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $62.31.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
Free Trend Analysis
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near term technical edge.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter term technical resistance at 81.25 and then at 81.50. Shorter term support is seen at 80.75 and then at the overnight low of 80.53.
Today's key near term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
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Crude Oil Falls on Dollar Advance, Speculation of Supply Gains
Crude oil fell to the lowest in five weeks on a stronger dollar and speculation U.S. fuel inventories will increase as the recession curbs demand in the world’s biggest energy consuming country. Oil and commodities including gold declined as the dollar climbed against the Euro, limiting investor appetite for assets to hedge against inflation. Eighteen of 37 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 49 percent, said oil futures will decline through July 10.....Complete Story
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Thursday, July 2, 2009
Crude Oil Lower Overnight, Lower Prices Possible
Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight and trading below the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.33 tempering the near term friendly outlook. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at 66.37 would renew the decline off June's high while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 62.25.
If August renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 73.90 is the next upside target.
Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 69.86
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 70.33
Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 73.38
First support is the overnight low crossing at 67.72
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 66.37
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Crude Oil Falls a Third Day on Forecast U.S. Shed More Jobs
Crude oil fell for a third day before a report forecast to show the U.S. unemployment increased last month, signaling the world’s largest energy user remains mired in recession. U.S. fuel demand in the four weeks ended June 26 fell 5.8 percent from a year earlier, while demand for distillate fuel including heating oil and diesel, fell 9.4 percent, according to a Department of Energy report yesterday. The Labor Department will likely report the U.S. shed an additional 365,000 jobs in June, a Bloomberg survey showed.....Complete Story
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Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Crude Oil Is Little Changed After Falling on Weak Fuel Demand
Crude oil traded little changed after falling in the past two days, as demand for gasoline and diesel in the U.S. remained weak during the recession. Fuel demand in the world’s largest energy user in the four weeks ended June 26 fell 5.8 percent from a year earlier, according to a Department of Energy report yesterday. Demand for distillate fuel including heating oil and diesel fell 9.4 percent to 3.4 million barrels a day during the period.....Complete Story
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Natural Gas Set Up For Lower Opening on Thursday
Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.710 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, August needs to close above 4.820 or below 3.520 to confirm a breakout of this spring's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.01
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.57
First support is today's low crossing at 3.76
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.71
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If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.710 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, August needs to close above 4.820 or below 3.520 to confirm a breakout of this spring's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.01
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.57
First support is today's low crossing at 3.76
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.71
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inventories,
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UNG
Crude Oil Closes Lower After Whipsaw Day of Trading
Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it extended Tuesday's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.
Despite today's setback stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 72.85 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If August crude oil renews last week's decline, the 38% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 62.25 is the next downside target.
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 73.38
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 73.90
First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 66.37
Second support is the 38% retracement level at 62.25
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Despite today's setback stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 72.85 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If August crude oil renews last week's decline, the 38% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 62.25 is the next downside target.
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 73.38
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 73.90
First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 66.37
Second support is the 38% retracement level at 62.25
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Oil and Gasoline Fall on Bigger Than Forecast Fuel Supply Increase
Crude oil and gasoline fell after a U.S. government report showed that fuel supplies in the world’s biggest energy consuming country rose more than forecast. Gasoline stockpiles increased 2.33 million barrels to 211.2 million in the week ended June 26, the Energy Department said. Inventories were estimated to rise by 2 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes diesel and heating oil.....Complete Story
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BG Group Takes Billion Dollar Bite of US Shale
BG Group agreed to pay $1 billion for a stake in Dallas based Exco Resources Inc.'s shale gas properties in Texas and Louisiana, becoming the latest European oil major to move into U.S. unconventional natural gas. The deal follows similar moves by StatoilHydro ASA of Norway and the British oil major BP PLC, who both recently acquired interests in shale gas fields in the U.S., one of the hottest new hydrocarbon plays.....Complete Story
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Crude Oil Stockpiles Drop
Crude inventories dropped again last week, though gasoline stockpiles continued to rise as refineries increased output, the government said Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels, or 1 percent, to 350.2 million barrels, which is 18.3 percent above year ago levels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report. Analysts had expected a drop of 2.2 million barrels for the week ended.....Complete Story
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Oil Companies Reject Iraq's Contract Terms
Iraq awarded a BP led consortium the right to develop the giant Rumaila oil field but failed to strike deals for seven oil and gas fields as companies balked at the country's contract terms. The outcome raised questions about how quickly Iraq could rehabilitate its oil sector, which has suffered from years of war and neglect. The country relies on oil sales for more than 90% of government revenue. Iraqi officials hailed the sole award for the Rumaila.....Complete Story
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Oil to Rise After Averting Slide: Technical Analysis
Crude oil is set to extend gains amid this week’s volatility and may reach the $76 a barrel level last traded in mid October, said the head of Cameron Hanover Inc. The market’s ability today to stay close to the psychologically important $70 a barrel mark is keeping prices from slipping into a technical downtrend channel on the daily continuation chart, said Peter Beutel, president of the New Canaan, Connecticut, trading advisory firm.....Complete Story
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Oil Rises Before Report Forecast to Show U.S. Supplies Shrank
Oil advanced before the release of a report predicted to show that U.S. crude supplies contracted for a fourth week, stoking optimism that fuel demand will recover as the recession abates. The Energy Department will probably report today that crude oil stockpiles dropped 2 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey. Yesterday the industry funded American Petroleum Institute said crude supplies fell by 6.8 million barrels.....Complete Story
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Crude Oil Rebounds Overnight
Crude oil traded higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 70.53. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If August extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 73.90 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 68.36 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 70.72
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 73.38.
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 73.90.
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.94.
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 68.36.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
If August extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 73.90 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 68.36 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 70.72
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 73.38.
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 73.90.
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.94.
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 68.36.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Labels:
Crude Oil,
inventories,
Stochastics,
unemployment numbers
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