Profit Taking Tempers Early Gains in Crude Oil

Crude oil closed higher on Monday and tested the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.90. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.90 would confirm that a short term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rebound during the last half of July. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.38 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 64.90
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 73.38

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.38
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 58.32

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Natural gas closed slightly higher on Monday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.641 signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.138 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.454 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.79
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.14

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.45
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.23

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Fundamental Analysis For Energy Market

Friday, oil prices climbed as the U.S. economy released its housing data showing that it came in better than market expectations which aroused speculations back in the markets that the housing sector is finding its bottom. Investors focus on any U.S. housing data as this was the reason behind the global financial turmoil, so an improvement of data, means that the economy will start enhancing therefore increased demand on energy products especially as the U.S. is known as the world's biggest energy consumer.....Complete Story

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Natural Gas Market Seeks Sign

Four consecutive weeks of smaller than expected injections of natural gas into US storage triggered a 12% price jump for the front month contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange in mid-July in what some hoped might be the first sign that well shut ins and reduced drilling may be decreasing supply. The August contract bumped up to $3.67/MMbtu on July 16 after the Energy Information Administration reported the injection of 90 bcf of gas into US storage in the week ended July 10. Still, the price of the front month gas contract.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Price Collapse Portends of Larger Monumental Rise

There is little known or written about the reason why crude oil was required to undergo a monumental collapse similar to a huge dive. This monumental collapse portends an even bigger and more monumental rise. In jest i would like to call this reason “the rule of rosen.” However, i know better than to usurp in any way those forces that are far more powerful than any mortal or collection of mortals.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Higher Challenging 20 Day Moving Average

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally and is challenging the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.94. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.94 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.

Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 63.94

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 64.90
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.94

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.44
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.32

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally above the 20 day moving average crossing at 36.45. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.645 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 4.138 later this month. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.461 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Natural Gas pivot point for Monday is 3.67

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.785
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.138

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.461
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.225

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Natural Gas ETF Plunges More Than Fuel Even as Shares Sell Out

The largest exchange traded fund for natural gas, so popular that it ran out of shares two weeks ago, has lost 43 percent this year and probably will keep falling until winter, trailing the fuel it’s supposed to track. The United States Natural Gas Fund will suffer from record high gas inventories and seasonal prices hitting the ETF harder than the fuel, said Teri Viswanath, the director of commodities research at Credit Suisse Securities USA in Houston. Investors piled into the fund this year, driving up its number of outstanding shares 11-fold.....Complete Story

Iraqi Parliament Declares it Can Halt Oil Contracts

Iraq's parliament has the authority to block a contentious oil deal with BP and China's CNPC, despite the oil ministry's insistence lawmakers can do nothing to derail the agreement, a top lawmaker said. "The government believes that such a subject is included in its authorities, according to existing law, but if parliament finds these contracts or this (bidding) round ... are not beneficial, parliament can prevent the government," parliament speaker Ayad al-Samarai said in an interview on Sunday.....Complete Story

U.S. LNG Surge May Have Been Overstated.

Earlier this year there were predictions for a large surge in LNG imports. While the shipments have started to come in, it's hasn't yet been the torrent some had expected.
U.S. daily LNG usage averaged 1.44 Bcf in Q2, according to Pritchard Capital Partners "well short of the earlier estimates that called for 3-5 Bcf a day." According to the Energy Information Administration the U.S. consumed 23.2 Tcf of natural gas in 2008, and is on track to consume around 22.5 Tcf in 2009. With reports of overseas liquefaction plants running..... Complete Story

Cuba Begins Expansion of JV Refinery with Venezuela

The Cuban authorities have begun the expansion of the storage capacity of a Cuban-Venezuelan refinery, local media reported Thursday. Cuban Basic Industry Minister Yadira Garcia hailed the advance of the work, including the installation of four tanks, each one with a capacity of 20,000 cubic meters, reports said. During a tour of these facilities Wednesday, Garcia said expanding the storage capacity of the refinery is "strategic" work.....Complete Story

Sabic Net Tumbles 76% on Plastics, Fertilizer Demand

Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s largest petrochemical maker, said second-quarter profit fell 76 percent, missing analysts’ estimates, as the economic slump hurt prices and demand for plastics and fertilizers. Net income declined to 1.81 billion riyals ($483 million) from 7.55 billion riyals a year earlier, Riyadh based Sabic said today in a statement on the Saudi bourse Web site. The average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 2 billion riyals.....Complete Story

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Survey Shows, Oil May Rise on Slumped Earnings

Crude oil may rise as better than expected second quarter earnings bolster the outlook for a recovery in demand, a survey of analysts showed. Seventeen of 37 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 46 percent, said futures will climb through July 24. Ten respondents, or 27 percent, forecast that prices will be little changed, and 10 expected a decline. Last week, 46 percent of analysts said oil would fall. Futures will increase as second quarter earnings beat analyst expectations, said Bill O’Grady, the chief market strategist for Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. Prices may also increase as equity markets rise.....Complete Story

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The Father Of Shale Gas, An Interview With George Mitchell

Drawn by impressive initial production rates, unconventional shale natural gas plays have been developed at a fever pitch in recent years by independent exploration and production companies like Devon Energy, Goodrich Petroleum and XTO Energy. But it's costly. First they drill down several thousand feet and bank the bit horizontally through the shale. Then they send a 2 million to 4 million gallon mixture of water, sand and chemicals down to break open the rock and release the gas. George Mitchell and his engineers developed the techniques to exploit shale in the Barnett Shale formation in North Texas.....Complete Interview

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The Energy Report Interviews Art Smith of Triple Double Advisors

This is a must read from The Market Oracle, as The Energy Report Interviews Art Smith of Triple Double Advisors on the Long Term Crude Oil Bull Market.

The outlook for oil seems to be brightening amid scant new reserve discoveries and declining reserves at the world's large oil fields. "We believe we're in a fundamentally positive market for oil in the 21st century," says Art Smith, president of Triple Double Advisors, who anticipates oil moving back into the three-digit price range within three to five years. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, the 35 year veteran of oil analysis shares his knowledge of energy markets and reveals some of his own investment strategies.....Complete Interview

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Petrobras Opens Cuba Office for oil Search

In a move to prepare for possible oil drilling in Cuba, Brazil's state controlled energy giant Petrobras opened an office in Cuba, the company announced Thursday. As part of its exploratory stage, Petrobras is currently analyzing results of seismic surveys carried out within the block it acquired last October in the communist ruled country's waters of the Gulf of Mexico. According to the terms of its contract with Cupet, Cuba's state owned oil company, Petrobras has until May 2010 to decide whether to begin drilling.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Rises More Than $1 After U.S. Housing Starts Climb

Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel as construction of single family dwellings jumped by the most since 2004, a sign the worst of the recession may have passed. Oil increased after the Commerce Department reported that construction of single family homes climbed 14 percent in June. The report also showed that total housing starts rose to the highest since November. Futures tumbled to $32.40 a barrel in December, a four year low, as the economic contraction curbed demand, allowing stockpiles to grow.....Complete Story

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Where Is Oil Headed Next Week?

CNBC's Brian Shactman discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed next week.



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Crude Oil Surprises, Moves Above 10 Day Moving Average

Crude oil closed higher on Friday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.36 signaling that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

If August extends this week's rally, the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.07 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.07 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 63.99
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.07

First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.32
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 54.97

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Natural gas closed slightly higher on Friday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.661 signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.661 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.155 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.66
Second resistance is today's high crossing at 3.79

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 34.36
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 3.23

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Natural Gas Heads to Seven Year Low as Supplies Swell

Natural gas futures, the worst performing commodity in 2009, may fall to seven year lows as demand drops with the deepest recession in half a century. Because chemical plants and power producers are burning less, gas inventories rose to 2.886 trillion cubic feet in the week ended July 10, the highest for any week in July since at least 1994, the U.S. Energy Department reported yesterday. Natural gas is down 36 percent this year on the New York Mercantile Exchange.....Complete Story

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Exxon Mobil Bets on Gas Locked in Colorado Mountains

At one time, even nuclear bombs couldn’t loosen ‘tight gas’ trapped in sandstone. Now Exxon Mobil says it has a way.

Oil and gas producers have known for decades that a massive bounty of natural gas lies beneath western Colorado's mountains. Getting at it, however, can be costly and complicated. With a potential gain of 1 billion cubic feet per day of output from its leased land in the deepest part of the gas rich Piceance Basin which would be about 2 percent of all U.S. gas production Exxon Mobil Corp. spent the last decade perfecting a way to drill less for more gas.....Complete Story

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Before You Blame Speculators for Oil ETF Moves…Could You Be One?

From Tom Lydon at ETF Trends....

Oil prices are nowhere near steady, and investors are perplexed as they try to figure out why. Analysts believe that there is one thing that is creating these gyrations in shares prices and exchange traded funds (ETFs): the dreaded speculator. But before you get out your torches…could you be one, too? What’s behind the wild gyrations in oil prices? Market watchers believe it is the investors themselves, the so called speculators.....Complete Story

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