Price Headley: Last Week's Action May be the Start of a Small Correction

The Crude Oil Trader would like to welcome our newest contributor Price Headley at BigTrends.com. Here is Price's weekly market report for Monday October 4th....

The four week win streak came to an end last week last week, though barely. Still, all pullbacks start with a small step, and last week's action may well be the beginning of at least a small correction. The dip came despite the much-improved economic news. Nearly all the data not only rolled in better than expected, but showed sustained improvements…. income, spending, sentiment (except for the Conference Board's consumer confidence), GDP, and most of the other data nuggets were pointed higher.

So why the pullback? It's all a matter of timeframes. In the long run, the good economic news should indeed translate into more bullishness for stocks. In the near-term (which is our primary focus from one week to the next), fear, greed, momentum, and excess movement drive the market for option trading. That's what we'll dissect below, after a closer look at the economy.

Economic Outlook
It was a plenty busy week last week on the economic front, with a rough start, but a strong finish. Though still improving, the rate of increase in home values, according the Case-Shiller index – slowed to a pace of 3.18% last month, versus the prior increase of 4.21%. Also on Tuesday, the Conference Board said consumer confidence slumped from 53.2 to 48.5 last month.

From Thursday on, however, it was nothing but good news.

Q2's GDP was revised upward, to 1.7%. Initial claims sank to near-multi-year-lows of 453K, while ongoing claims fell to 4457K… also approaching new multi year lows. The lines in the sand for each are 440K and 4430K, respectively. On Friday, the news got even more compelling. Incomes as well as spending were both up, and better than anticipated (by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively). And, the prior week's problematic University of Michigan Sentiment number was revised upward, from 66.6 to 68.2.

How does the continued uptrend in incomes as well as spending last while both confidence measures sink? As we've said before, the confidence opinion polls are 'supposed to be' assessments about the next six months. In reality, they are assessments of the prior month. Moreover, in many ways they can be interpreted as contrarian indicators....meaning be bullish when they're most bearish, and vice versa.

Indeed, Friday's latter data confirmed that consumers aren't nearly as mired as they claim to be. Construction spending was up a tad, against the backdrop of an expected 1.4% contraction. And, though the final numbers aren't in yet, auto sales have remained strong this year – and in September – despite worries that things are going to get worse before they get better. It's all below.

Let's take a look at the charts for this coming week.....Price Headley's view for this week.

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A Trader's First Book on Commodities: An Introduction to The World's Fastest Growing Market

The Simple, Practical, 100% Useful How-To Guide for New Commodities Traders from Carley Garner.....

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Bloomberg Analysis: Crude Oil to Hit Resistance Level at $86.70 This Week

Crude oil may fail to breach the $86.70 a barrel level this week based on statistical analysis used by traders to gauge prices, the Schork Group Inc. said. Crude’s resistance at that level corresponds to the upper limit of the confidence interval, a statistical range with a specified probability that a given parameter lies within the boundaries. Oil is most likely to trade this week between $76.76 a barrel and $86.70, according to the Schork Group.

Oil prices have jumped 4.7 percent since Sept. 29 to $81.53 today as signs of positive economic growth in the U.S. and China improve the outlook for fuel demand. Crude’s gains may sputter to a halt as prices climb to highs reached earlier this year in April and May. “Prices will hit serious resistance in any attempt to cross the $86.70 barrier,” said Schork Group President Stephen Schork. Oil climbed to this year’s highest close at $86.84 on April 6 and reached $86.19 on May 3, followed by sell offs below $70, he said.

The November contract was at $81.52 a barrel, down 6 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:54 a.m. Singapore time after reaching $81.87. It surged $1.61 to settle at $81.58 on Oct. 1, the highest close since Aug. 5, capping the biggest weekly gain since February. “The bulls should have enough momentum to hold prices close to either side of the $80 barrier, thus we expect prices to trade safely inside our confidence interval,” the Schork Group said.

Reporter Christian Schmollinger can be contacted at christian.s@bloomberg.net.

Courtesy Bloomberg News


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Monday Morning Oct. 4th

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off last week's low, the 87% retracement level of August's decline crossing at 82.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.99 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 81.87
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of August's decline crossing at 82.41

Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 81.01

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.99
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 73.58



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3 Surprising ETF Ideas for a Possible Oil Rush

 From Gary Gordon at Seeking Alpha.Com

When is the last time that crude oil closed as high as $81.64 per barrel? You’d have to look back to 2008. At that time, crude was on its way down. This time, commodities like oil are trending higher! There are plenty of exchange traded investments for rising crude oil prices. Perhaps the most popular is United States Oil (USO), an ETF that endeavors to capture the the spot price of West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude.

It should be noted, however, that USO has struggled immensely at tracking its intended index due to contango and backwardation. And the iPath Crude Oil ETN (OIL) hasn’t fared a whole heck of a lot better. Other folks hope to benefit from the corporations that explore for, produce and sell the commodity. Yet share prices of big energy companies have been hit from everything from oil drilling moratoriums to taxation and regulatory uncertainty.

ETFs like SPDR Select Energy (XLE) and Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH) have been under-performers regardless of reasonable share price valuation. So what’s an oil investor to do? Can you march to the beat of the oil drum....and actually achieve over sized returns? Yes you can. However, you might want to look in a slightly different direction.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Trades Near Eight Week High as U.S. Consumer Spending Increases

Crude oil traded near an eight week high after economic data from the U.S. and China bolstered optimism that demand is growing in the world’s two largest energy consuming countries. Futures advanced 2 percent on Oct. 1 after U.S. consumer spending increased more than forecast in August as incomes climbed, a Commerce Department report showed. Prices also rose as China’s purchasing managers’ index gained in September at the fastest pace in four months.

“The broad sentiment is that a double dip in the U.S. is looking more and more unlikely,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “Combine that with the strong growth in China, and you’ve got the world’s two biggest oil consumers both looking like they’re in a recovery period.”

The November contract was at $81.63 a barrel, up 5 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:07 a.m. Singapore time after reaching $81.87. It surged $1.61 to settle at $81.58 on Oct. 1, the highest close since Aug. 5, capping the biggest weekly gain since February. Consumer purchases in the U.S. climbed for a second month, rising 0.4 percent and exceeding the 0.3 percent gain projected by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Incomes were up 0.5 percent, the biggest advance this year.....Read the entire article.


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Gold Stocks, SP500 & the U.S. Dollar – What’s Next?

From Chris Vermeulen, The Gold and Oil Guy......

Investors around the globe are concerned with the economic outlook, not only with the United States but with virtually every country. This has caused not only investors but banks and countries to start buying gold & silver in order to be protected incase of a currency melt down in the coming years.

While the majority is concerned about the eroding economy, we have seen the opposite in the financial market. Gold and equities have risen… That being said the volume in the market remains light simply because the average investor is no longer putting money into the market for long term growth. Instead individuals are now focusing on saving and paying down debt.

That being said we all know light volume market conditions allow Wall Street powerhouses to bid the market up. Not to mention with quantitative easing taking place I’m sure that has also helped the market of late. While we don’t know for sure that QE is taking place as we speak, the sharp drop in the dollar and strong move up in gold are pricing this into the market.

Let’s take a look at some charts....

HUI – Gold Stock Index
This long term monthly chart of the HUI index provides valuable trading signals for both gold stocks and gold bullion. As you can see below this index is trading at a key resistance level after forming a bullish 3 year Cup & Handle pattern. The next 1-2 months for the precious metals sector will be interesting as it tries to break above key resistance. I would really like to see the HUI:GLD ratio break to the upside to confirm if the breakout occurs.

SPY – Daily Long Term Trend
The broad market looks to be forming a short term topping wedge. If this is to occurI expect it to take several weeks to play out. Looking at the chart if we use Fibonacci retracements along with trend line support we can get a feel for where this pullback should correct to.

That being said the broad market breadth and internals seem to be holding up indicating higher prices over the long run. While the short term price action is overbought and I expect a pullback to form, my analysis is pointing to higher prices as we go into year end.

UUP – US Dollar Daily Price Action
Although the majority of investors have a bearish outlook on the economy, we have seen a large price appreciation in equities and precious metals. This is largely due to the fact that the US dollar is quickly getting devalued. Simply put, as the dollar drops, it helps boost commodities and stock prices.

While a rising stock market is great to see, at some point the dollar will become so cheap that it will start to have a very negative affect on the US economy, commodities and stocks. Being from Canada it has always been more expensive to take holidays in the United States, and I remember paying $1.50-$1.70 for every $1 green back. But now the dollar is almost at par making holidays very affordable. The big question/concern is when will they ease off on the printing? At the rate which they are printing the greenback will be at par with peso… well not that extreme but you get the point Eh!

Weekend Market Conclusion:
As we all know the market has a way of making sure the majority of traders miss major turning points. The saying is, “If the market doesn’t shake you out, it will wear you out” and it seems we are getting the later…

The never ending grind higher in precious metals has not had any big shakeouts, rather its wearing out any short positions before rolling over to take a breather. As for the stock market, we are getting much of the same thing as the market grinds higher day after wearing out the shorts before rolling over.

That being said, there is more at work here than just regular market movements. With the light volume in the market we know there is price manipulation and QE (quantitative Easing) which is helping to boost prices and exaggerate market movements.

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Let the volatility and volume return!
Chris Vermeulen



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Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization

An internationally renowned energy expert has written a book essential for every American, a galvanizing account of how the rising price and diminishing availability of oil are going to radically change our lives. Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller is a powerful and provocative book that explores what the new global economy will look like and what it will mean for all of us.

In a compelling and accessible style, Jeff Rubin reveals that despite the recent recessionary dip, oil prices will skyrocket again once the economy recovers. The fact is, worldwide oil reserves are disappearing for good. Consequently, the amount of food and other goods we get from abroad will be curtailed; long-distance driving will become a luxury and international travel rare. Globalization as we know it will reverse. The near future will be a time that, in its physical limits, may resemble the distant past.

But Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller is a hopeful work about how we can benefit–personally, politically, and economically....from this new reality. American industries such as steel and agriculture, for instance, will be revitalized. As well, Rubin prescribes priorities for President Obama and other leaders, from imposing carbon tariffs that will increase competition and productivity, to investing in mass transit instead of car-clogged highways, to forging “green” alliances between labor and management that will be good for both business and the air we breathe.

Most passionately, Rubin recommends ways every citizen can secure this better life for himself, actions that will end our enslavement to chain-store taste and strengthen our communities and timeless human values.

About the Author
Jeff Rubin is the chief economist and chief strategist at CIBC World Markets. He was one of the first economists to accurately predict soaring oil prices back in 2000 and is now one of the world’s most sought after energy experts. He lives in Toronto.


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Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Oct. 3rd

Natural gas continued to stay in sideway consolidations in familiar range last week and outlook remains unchanged. While another rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited by 4.288 support turned resistance and bring resumption of the whole fall from 5.196. Below 3.732 minor support will suggest that such consolidation is completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 3.61 support. Break will target 3.0 psychological level next. However, decisive break of 4.288 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and will bring stronger rise to 5.007 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 6.108 is still in progress and further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 6.108 to 3.81 from 5.194 at 2.896 next. More importantly, recent development revived the case that medium term rebound from 2.409 is completed at 6.108 already. Also, fall from 6.108 might indeed be resuming the long term down trend for a new low below 2.409. We'll pay attention to the structure of the current decline for more hints. On the upside, break of 4.288 resistance will be the first signal of reversal. Further break of 5.007/194 resistance zone will in turn argue that fall from 6.108 has finished.

In the longer term picture, while the bounce from 2.409 was strong, it's been limited below 55 months EMA (now at 5.814) and reversed. The failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 4.498) also argue that 2.409 might not be the bottom yet. We'll stay bearish as long as this year's high of 6.108 holds and favor a new low below 2.409 going forward.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Charts



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Hey Sharon....Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed Next Week?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.



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Weakness in U.S. Dollar Continues to Support Commodities

Weakness in the dollar continued to support commodities. Although several US data released last week beat expectations, speculations that the Fed will expand the bond buying program did not abate. The dollar index plunged for a 3rd week to 78.08, down -1.65% on the week.

The energy complex was the best performer of the week with crude oil and fuel prices surging 6-7%. Precious metals strengthened further with gold making new nominal highs and silver 30 year highs. Base metals continued to perform well as strong Chinese PMI signaled demand for the complex should sustain.

Central bank meetings will be the focus next week. Driven by robust economic data and hawkish speeches from policymakers, the RBA is expected to raise the policy rate by 25 bps on Tuesday. The ECB and the BOE will be meeting on Thursday. We believe both central banks will leave monetary policies unchanged.

Let's look at the charts for nominal returns in energy, precious metals and base metals.

The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010

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John Mauldin: The U.S. Consumer is Dead, and Gas Is Going To $5 A Gallon

This week I am at a conference in Houston. I must confess that I don't attend many of the sessions at most conferences where I speak. But today, the guys at Streettalk Advisors have such a great lineup that I am there for every session. But it's Friday and I need to write. The solution? This week you get a "best of" letter. The best ideas I've heard and the best charts I've seen at this conference. Then we close with two short but very thoughtful essays from Charles Gave and Arthur Kroeber of GaveKal on "The Morality of Chinese Growth." Lots of charts and something to make you think. Should be a good letter.

Oil at $125 a Barrel, Gasoline at $5

John Hofmeister is the former president of Shell Oil and now CEO of the public-policy group Citizens for Affordable Energy. He paints a very stark (even bleak, as he gets further into the speech) picture of the future of energy production in the US unless we change our current policies. First, because of the aftereffects of the moratorium. It is his belief that the drilling moratorium will effectively still be in place until at least the middle of 2012. There won't even be new rules until the end of 2011, and then the lawsuits start.

Gulf oil production will be down by up to 1 million barrels a day. Imported oil is now 67% of oil usage but will go to 75% by 2012. He thinks crude oil will be up to $125 and gasoline between $4-$5 at the pump. And it will only get worse. He describes the problem with the electricity from coal production. The average coal plant is 38 years old, with a planned-for life of 50 years. Our energy production capability is rapidly aging, and we are not updating it fast enough.

He argues that the fight between the right and the left has given us 37 years without a realistic energy policy, as policy gets driven by two year political cycles but good energy planning takes decades. There are 13 government agencies that regulate the energy industry, with conflicting mandates that change very two years. There are 22 congressional committees that have some level of involvement and oversight of the energy industry.

Read the entire post on The Business Insider


Can you learn to trade crude oil in just 90 seconds?

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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Oct. 2nd

Crude oil's rise from 72.75 accelerated to as high as 81.75 last week and the development suggests that whole rise from 70.76 is not corrective in nature. In other words, rise from 70.76 is resuming whole rebound from 64.23 and should extend beyond 82.97 resistance. Initial bias is on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 70.76 to 78.04 from 72.75 at 84.53. On the downside, below 79.70 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 77.32) and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rally from 70.76 dampened the immediate bearish view and suggests that rise from 64.23 is still in progress. Nevertheless, we're still favoring the case that medium term rally from 33.2 is already completed at 87.15. Hence, strong resistance should be seen as crude oil enters into resistance zone of 82.97/87.15 and bring reversal. We're still expecting another fall to 60 psychological level (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18).

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.

Click Here for Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, daily, weekly and monthly Charts.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO


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Keith Schaefer: My #1 Question....When Should I Invest in Natural Gas?

A Contrarian View of the Gas Market....and 4 Questions To Ask Yourself

It is, by a longshot, the most frequently asked question among OGIB readers over the last two years....“When should I buy natural gas? And should I buy ETFs? Future contracts? Natural gas producer stocks? I’ll tell you my thoughts, and I’ll also give investors four questions to ask the management teams of their natural gas producers that could help you protect your investment. The culprit of these low prices is the highly profitable shale gas plays that have grown very quickly all over North America. Shale gas wells often pay out very quickly, on an operating cost basis. The team writing the energy daily letter at National Bank in Canada had an interesting take on gas yesterday that mirrored my thoughts.

“Finally, the conventional wisdom that appears to be growing in the gas market is that the market is poised for a significant rally because of the overwhelmingly bearish mood and the fact that there are no buyers anymore out there for gas. “We would agree if in fact there were no buyers out there for gas. “But there are buyers, ETF investors (in a big way at these low prices), Reliance Industries, Mitsui, KoGas, Statoil, China National Petroleum Corporation, BG Group and Shell to name a few. Once these capital injections cease, the time will be right to become very bullish on gas. The key is to be the first one to recognize this phenomenon…or at least not the last.” The companies they named are large foreign producers who have paid big money to farm into shale plays just to learn the technology.

In 2009, the investment bankers were able to raise money for even the junior gas companies that were unhedged. Raising money for senior or intermediate producers was even easier. And just as the buy side institutions that bought those financings became wary of a long time of low gas prices, the industry was able to get capital from these international players.

Until all these sources of capital dry up and natural gas producers are feeling more forced to curtail production, gas prices could remain this low or lower. The good news is that with these low prices, producers can’t hedge good prices for 2011, like they could last year for their 2010 production.

So what does this mean for retail investors, how can we use that information to protect or increase the value of our portfolio? The answer is, know your investments, and here are four questions to ask management. Investors in the junior gas weighted stocks, in both Canada and the US, should be very cautious now.

First investors should check if their company’s are near their debt ceiling, and there are lots who are, because these companies can’t raise money (equity; or issue shares) now. They only have their debt line and cash flow. And net cash flow right now is very low for these producers.

Second, investors should ask management if they would have to take any reserve writedowns if the independent evaluators came in to do their calculations at today’s prices. A company’s reserves are their assets from which they can secure lending against. If those reserves were economic last December 31, they might not be this year at these lower prices, we have yet to see any meaningful rally in gas prices this fall, compared to last year. And reserves are This which would mean they may have to suddenly sell assets or do very dilutive financings at very low share price just to stay alive.

Third, investors should also be checking if their natural gas weighted investments are reducing production, which is good for preserving cash but generally not for the stock price. The market pays for growth, not contraction.

Energy consultants Ziff Energy recently said that junior producers should not be spending any money, in order to preserve capital during this time when full cycle costs, where you amortize everything into your costs of production, are almost twice what the current gas price is in Canada, and 50% higher than current spot price in the US.

Fourth, ask management what their plan is to survive an even longer period of low natural gas prices if they are unhedged. It’s your company and it’s your money.


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Commodity Corner: A Banner Week for Crude Oil and Gasoline

Thanks to a weaker dollar and positive Chinese manufacturing news, the front month crude oil contract price surged to its highest point in nearly two months.

The price of a barrel of crude settled at $81.58, a $1.61 gain from the previous day. The greenback continued its slide against the euro, making oil a better value for traders. Also, an important indicator of China's manufacturing growth, supported oil. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported a 4.1% increase in its Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from August to September. In the U.S., however, the Institute for Supply Management's own PMI experienced a 1.9 percentage point drop to 54.4 during the same period. According to ISM, the manufacturing sector and the overall economy continue to grow but at slower rates.

The intraday range for oil Friday was $79.70 to $81.47. Oil ended the week up 6.6%.

Natural gas prices, meanwhile declined as a result of a mild weather forecast and abundant inventories. November gas futures fell seven cents to settle at $3.80 per thousand cubic feet. Natural gas, which traded from $3.79 to $3.87 Friday, is unchanged for the week.

Gasoline for November delivery capped off an impressive week by settling at $2.09 a gallon, a five cent improvement from Thursday. The front month gasoline price traded from $2.03 to $2.09, and it ended the week up 7.2%.

Courtesy of the Rigzone Staff

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Is it Really Time to Get on The Gold Band Wagon? Try this ETF Instead

Retail investors are flooding into gold. And it's no surprise with Gold (GLD) reaching all time highs again this week more investors are putting cash into anything precious metal related but I am here to caution you on doing so. There are far better opportunities than gold right now and chasing this trend is not the formula for generating short term growth. We have traded GLD call options 8 times this year (7 profitable) in the ETF TRADR portfolio but now it’s time to step away. Of course, what type of ‘tradr’ would I be if I failed to offer a better alternative.

First off, it would be very difficult to find a long term chart more strong and persistent than the Gold chart, it’s nothing short of amazing (and at the same time scary for the future of the dollar). That said, even as Gold has made new highs in recent days there is a better place to focus your trading capital. The semiconductor industry has lifted off in recent days and I expect it to continue. Here’s the performance chart between the headline making Gold (GLD) rally and the Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

So what’s making the semis perform so well? It’s certainly not the lackluster outlook from PC manufacturers who continue to see challenges ahead. It was just three weeks ago when Intel (INTC) slashed their outlook sending the stock down nearly 4%. Others like Cisco have also expressed concern with speak of “unusual uncertainty” in the global economy that could impact sales.

If these headlines weren’t enough many analysts also believe Apple’s iPad is hurting sales of the Semiconductor Industry because the chip is Apple branded and made by Samsung who is not a major Semiconductor. The major players are not benefiting from this particular increase in chip demand. Bottom line, here’s what is making semiconductors (SMH) move.

If you want real time ETF and ETF Option recommendations start here by signing up for our Freemium TRADR .

In a classic contrarian move Semiconductors shifted in to high gear directly after the industry leader (INTC) lowered their outlook. SMH has one of the strongest ETFs trends in September and I believe it will continue. Let’s take a look at the SMH charts to see the how the ETF is trading. We’ll take a look at the following:
Current Trend Analysis (how strong is this trend and how much further can it go) Resistance and Support Levels. How to Enter with a Lower Risk Profile.

Just click here to watch the video.



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A Perfect Weekend for “The 52-week New Highs on Friday Rule”

From guest blogger Adam Hewison .....

We published this trading rule on our blog almost 8 months ago, February 10 to be exact. You can look it up if you wish. With gold making all time highs on Friday, it seems like the perfect candidate for this rule. Just remember, there are no guarantees in trading and you want gold to close at or near its highs for the day.

I learned this rule over 3 decades ago in the markets from a low key trader named Bill. Using his special trading technique, Bill made millions and millions of dollars from his office. The best part is that this technique is still working more than 30 years after it was taught to me and why I insist on sharing it with as many traders as possible.

Bill didn’t even have a name for this killer trading technique and so I named it, “The 52-week new highs on Friday rule”.

This technique has been working with amazing regularity. In the video, I show you that when a market is closing at a 52 week high on a Friday, you should go long. In case you missed it, and all of the rules, you can watch here.

When I hear people say that things have changed in the market and that they are completely different from what they used to be, I have to disagree. I think this is a good example why.
As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Have you traded using the “52 week Friday rule”? If so, let us know how it went, but regardless of whether you have or not, leave your comments below.

Just click here to learn this trading secret and please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think.

P.S. Here are the 52 WEEK RULES
Here are the three rules you need to trade “The 52-week new highs on Friday rule”
These are the exact rules that Bill used to make millions
Rule number 1: On a new 52-week high, when the market closes at or close to its high on a Friday, buy long and go home long for the weekend.
Rule number 2: Exit the long position on the opening the following Tuesday.
Rule number 3: If the market opens lower on Monday, exit the position immediately.
There you have it. These are the only three rules you need to trade with “The 52-week new highs on a Friday rule” successfully.
“The 52 week new highs on a Friday rule” works extremely well in futures and in the Forex markets. This rule can be reversed for “The 52 week new lows on a Friday rule” if you are so inclined to trade the short side of the market. The same rules apply.



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The Chinese are Rockin....Repsol to Sell Brazil Assets to Sinopec for $7.1 Billion

In one of the largest Chinese oil acquisitions to date, Spain's Repsol Friday announced the sale of 40% of its Brazilian assets to China Petrochemical Corp., or Sinopec Group, for $7.1 billion. The joint venture, valued at $17.8 billion overall, guarantees Repsol key funding to explore vast and coveted offshore oil fields in South America's biggest economy.

The transaction is also another sign of China's growing prominence on the international energy scene, as it expands its access and ownership of raw materials needed to back the country's economic expansion. The biggest oil takeover by a Chinese firm to date has been Sinopec Group's $7.2 billion acquisition in 2009 of Addax Petroleum Corp., based in Switzerland, only slightly more than the venture announced Friday.

The joint Brazilian operation stands as one of Latin America's largest foreign controlled energy ventures, as it will develop some of the world's most important exploratory discoveries in recent years, Repsol said in a filing with the stock market regulator. Repsol will have controlling interest in the joint venture with a 60% share. At the center of the deal is Repsol's holdings in the coveted subsalt area offshore Brazil, which had been anticipated to constitute a long term cashcow for the Spanish oil giant.

The subsalt play is exceptionally expensive because the oil is found in water depths of more than 2,000 meters and several thousand meters further under the sea bed below layers of sand, rocks and salt. Repsol has said previously that bringing its Brazilian subsalt oil finds into production could cost between $10 billion and $18 billion. Friday's deal eliminates the need for an initial public offering of its Brazilian stake they company had contemplated, Repsol said. "With this new investment, Repsol Brasil is fully.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning Oct. 1st

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off last week's low, the 87% retracement level of August's decline crossing at 82.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.69 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 81.08
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of August's decline crossing at 82.41

Crude oil pivot for Friday morning is 79.23

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.69
Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58



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If It Wasn`t Oil, The Session Would Have Been Perfect...

From guest blogger Henrique M. Simoes.....

I was scared earlier on when the economic data points came out, all higher then expectations (remember, I was short ES). I thought to myself, "if the indexes do not reverse I am going to have the worst trading session of the year...". But I was calm and detached, and when I saw the hesitations in the morning rally, plus some timid dollar rallies, I stepped in and sold a few more eMini`s. It was the only play possible.

Unfortunately, the oil rally did not abate and I left a few gold bars in the oil pits today. Someone is buying Moet&Chandon on me tonight. We can`t always win, can we? It was a rough day. I will need 5 or more trading sessions to get back...

I closed almost all my positions as I want to start trading tomorrow with a clean sheet. No bias, no prepositions.

Henrique M. Simoes can be reached at traderhms@gmail.com


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