Are Stocks & Commodities About To Start Another Rally?

Over the past couple months everyone seems to have been preparing for a sharp market correction. Crazy part is that the SP500 dropped about 10% from the high and that is a typical bull market correction. The thing is… the stock market has a way of slowly unfolding making it look and feel minor, then before you know it, the correction is over and it’s back to an uptrend. That is kind of how this one unfolded.

The good news is that we caught the low risk portion of the correction locking in a 4.5% drop, and we are now in a long trade and in the money by 2.5% with very little down side risk at this point. Time will tell if this up trend is sustainable or not…

Now, let’s take a look at the charts…

Dollar 60 minute intraday chart
As you can see below the dollar looks to have started a breakdown today. If there is continued selling pressure in the next couple days then expect to stocks and commodities to move higher as the US Dollar drops. It is important to know that when a bullish pattern fails we typically see a very strong reaction in the opposite direction (down) catching the majority off guard and they rush to the door.

SPY Broad Market ETF – Daily Chart
A couple weeks ago we watched the market go into a free fall creating a washout bottom. From there we saw prices bounce back and retake my key moving averages. This gave us a bullish bias and dips should be looked at as buying opportunities. I will admit that stocks still have a long way to go before the masses are convinced. I feel we need to see the February and March highs get taken out first. Once they get taken out there should be strong buying as short covering (protective stops from traders who are short) causes a surge in buying pressure sending stocks sharply higher yet again.

My trading buddy David Banister at Active Trading Partners is starting to see small cap stocks come back to life. Money is starting to flow into these lucrative areas of the market and he is on top of things… This week’s trade is up 20% in less than 24 hours which is very exciting.

Gold Daily Chart
Gold has been moving up this year but the current price action is not really getting me excited to buy just yet. Recently we have seen strong selling volume and very light buying volume. My bias still favors higher prices but there is still a good chance we get another dip in the coming sessions.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, I feel as though the dollar will trigger the next wave of buying in stocks and commodities for the next week or two… We should see the dollar make a clean moving in either direction shortly and that will help guide my analysis, positions and setups. I hope this analysis helps you to see the market from a different perspective.

Just click here if you would like to get Chris Vermeulens mid-week reports and his free newsletter.

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Surprising New Video: Gold or Silver....Which is the Right Precious Metal for You?

Sure, gold dominates the headlines. But which would you rather buy right now, gold or silver?

Gold has incredible amounts of emotional baggage attached to it, while silver is in a different league, at least for the moment. This video will show you two indicators that can help you capture either market when and if the upward trend decides to resume.

With all of the world's troubles, there are plenty of reasons why one would think that both of these markets should be much higher. The question is, why aren't they? We think that the video you're about to watch will help answer some of those questions.

In today's short educational trading video, we put together comparisons between these two markets and why the obvious choice may not be the best choice.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Please feel free to leave a comment and tell us what you think of the video and also what you think of gold and silver.

Watch "Gold or Silver....Which is the Right Precious Metal for You?"

Want to trade like Adam? Click here for FREE lessons.

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New Report Analyzes Tipping Point of Gold and Equities....Are You Ready?

Equities and Precious Metals are on the edge of another rally and it could start as early as tomorrow.

On March 13th I posted some of my analysis online showing how the market was trading at a key pivot point and that a sharp price movement was about to unfold. I also provided everyone with the direction in favor which played out perfectly catching a 4.5% in three days.

As of today we are getting the same setup I saw on March 13th [see "It Looks Like Crash or Crush Time For Equities and Gold"] but this time it’s pointing to higher prices. Take a quick look at the charts I was looking at for both the SP500 and gold and you will notice that the SP500 and gold both moved to the support levels before starting to bounce.

While we caught the move down on the SP500 playing the SDS Double leveraged inverse fund we did not take part in falling gold prices. Reason being, there is so much fear in the market and the amount of surprise news popping up each week I don’t think shorting precious metals is a safe call. Rather I am looking for a pullback to cleanse the holders of the commodity then I will buy once price confirms the continuation pattern has completed.

Now, stepping forward to this week’s price action

SPY Daily Chart
We can see in the chart below that price is currently testing a key resistance level. Before the week is over we could see some big price movement equities. I need to see what happens tomorrow but I have a feeling we could see a breakout to the upside for a long position.

Gold Miners Fund Daily Chart
Gold stocks have be under performing the price of bullion for a few months but it looks as though they could be starting a sizable rally. If gold stocks continue to move sharply higher out of this pattern, then it’s a positive sign that gold and silver bullion will both continue to move up.

Mid-Week Trend Report:
In short, stocks and commodities may have shaken the weak positions out of the market during the recent pullback in price. Things could be ready to start another multi month rally and trade setups. Keep your eyes on the charts....

Just Click Here if you would like to get these reports sent to your inbox each Sunday & Wednesday. Check out The Gold and Oil Guy.Com


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“Day Trading Made Simple” Now Playing on Trend TV

William Greenspan has over 155 consecutive winning months using his “day trading” system. As a day trader since the early 70s, he has walked in the pits of the CBOT and CME practicing his philosophy of making “a million dollars on a million trades, not a million dollars on one trade.”

Greenspan shares his strategy as well as best practices for successful trading on Trend TV…

“Discipline. That’s the key to success in so many aspects of life and it’s the main ingredient of any successful trading plan. But, what does discipline really mean to an intraday trader?
Discipline means taking small quick losses and letting your profits ride. That’s the key to all successful trading. Discipline means using stop loss orders on every trade to limit your losses and moving your stop loss orders to protect your profit.

That’s kinda like grooming your position. When you have a profit in a trade, you should take your stop loss order and move it first to your break even point, and then if your trade continues to trend your way, to always protect your profit along the way. Three, discipline means following all the buy and sell signals that your trading plan or system of trade has to offer you.

In all trading you must expect losses and you must accept them gracefully, because it may take only one mistake to wipe out the profits of ten winning trades…”

To watch the full video with William Greenspan, please visit Trend TV. Once you receive your password, you can visit Trend TV anytime and watch new videos as they are added.

We hope you will be able to use Greenspan’s experience to grow your profits and protect you from that one big mistake.

Just Click Here to take advantage of everything Trend TV has to offer!



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How to Gauge the Equities Market so You Don’t Buy to Early!

From Chris Vermeulen at The Gold and Oil Guy......

Over the years I have found an indicator/trading tool which I find help spot intermediate trend reversals. I am going to quickly cover in this report. As most of you know the 20 simple moving average is a great gauge for telling you if you should be looking to buy the dips or sell the bounces. It’s an indicator I keep on the broad market charts like the SP500, Dow and NASDAQ.

The chart below shows the percentage of stocks trading above the 20 moving average. When this indicator falls below 20%, I make sure I start to protect my short positions with more aggressive protective stops and keep an eye on short term sentiment, volume ratios, options and price action as a bottom can take place at any time and very quickly. Bottoms tend to be more of an event happening quickly with a washout/panic selling day followed by a sharp rally, while intermediate market tops drag out taking weeks if not months to roll over and are very difficult to trade which is what we have been experiencing so far this year.

Mr. Jones once of my trading buddies who focuses strictly on Options Trading has been cleaning up with the current volatility making 21%, 50% and 67% returns on his last threes trades. This guy loves volatility and always seems to have an options strategy for every situation the market dishes out. Check out his service at OptionsTradingSignals.com

As you can see this indicator is currently trading in the lower reversal zone and I feel a bottom will form before March is over.

SP500 Daily Chart
The SP500 continued lower today, which is what I mentioned, would most likely take place in my pre market video this morning. The trading session was a roller coaster with news on Japans reactors causing large waves of buy and selling throughout the day. I have not seen traders follow the news so close like this in some time… Everyone has their fingers hovering over the buy and sell button these days.

Looking at the bottom indicator which is my gauge of panic selling within the market, it has yet to close above 15 which is the minimum number I typically look for before I start zooming into the intraday charts for a long entry (market bottom). We still could see much lower prices before we see that.

Gold 4 Hour Chart
This chart is the same one I showed in my Sunday night report, which explained why gold should test the $1380-1390 level in the coming days. We did see that unfold this week but now the chart is pointing to possibly even lower prices with a support range between $1360-1380 taking place this week. Keep an eye on it as it should be swift if it does occur.

Mid-Week Trend Report:
In short, we are finally getting the correction everyone has been waiting for and now that it’s started and we are short, we must start watching closely for a bottom because they can take place very quickly.

My focus is still on playing the short side but I have my antennas up just in case signs of a bottom start showing up.

If you would like to get my free weekly reports just Click Here to visit The Gold and Oil Guy.Com


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It's Here....Your Official Invitation to MarketClub TV

This is it, the moment every trader has been waiting for....

After weeks of planning and preparation, our friends at MarketClub have officially announced the launch of MarketClub TV.

And you are officially invited to join them ONLINE for the premiere episode:

Join us ONLINE for the premiere episode of MarketClub TV at 7:00pm eastern, Thursday, March 17th

Register Now It's FREE!

You are going to both love and be blown away by MarketClub TV and the LIVE, INTERACTIVE, wealth-building tips, news, insights and money making plays it gives you.

Yes, that's right, I said 'interactive'. Each week Adam Hewison and his team at MarketClub will...

* Discuss the biggest movers and shakers of the week
* Uncover the hot, new trading opportunities that are starting to take shape...
* Look at powerful, ongoing trends and the best ways for you to profit from them...
* Show you MarketClub's proprietary Trade Triangles in action and illustrate the easiest, most effective ways to use them...
* Plus much, MUCH more!

Here's the best part of all though: Throughout each show you'll be able to email... instant message ('chat')... Tweet... or call in any questions, comments, or ideas you may have and we'll go over them right then and there, live on the air.

In other words, you'll be getting the kind of tips, picks, news and insights that can launch your trading success to an all new high...

You'll be able to watch it all LIVE, each week, in the comfort of your own home for FREE.

You'll be able to talk with us, ask any questions you may have, and get the answers you need on the air, right then and there.

And, if you happen to miss an episode, there's no need to worry - you'll be able to replay any episode you like, whenever you like, as often as you like.

MarketClub TV will be broadcast LIVE, online Thursday evenings at 7:00pm eastern starting with the premiere episode is this Thursday, March 17th.

PLUS, to kick things off with a bang, one lucky viewer will win a 1 year membership to MarketClub. Everyone who registers to watch Thursday's premiere episode will automatically be entered into the drawing. And the winner will be announced LIVE during the show.

Just you wait and see, Click to check out MarketClub TV. It is going to rock your world! See you there!


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It Looks Like Crash or Crush Time For Equities and Gold

The past couple weeks have been choppy in the equities market. While the strong intraday moves are great for day traders, it is extremely difficult for swing/position traders who normally hold positions for 3-60 days in length, which is my focus with this newsletter. That being said, we are reaching a do or die point for the equities market and next week there should be a strong move out of this trading range.

On the volume side of things, we have been seeing distribution taking place. Heavy volume continues to step into the market unloading large amounts of shares. The interesting part is that the majority of traders are bullish and sentiment levels are at extremes. Also, we are seeing the retail trader enter the market… What does this mean? It means we must trade very cautious and large positions on the long side shouldn’t be taken. The selling volume and extreme bullish sentiment are warning us that a correction is near.

There are a few things I watch to identifying trend reversals and they are accumulation or distribution of shares, Extreme sentiment readings, Market internals/breadth, and if the price relative to the 20 SMA. Currently we are seeing all the signs of a reversal to the down side, but it has yet to be confirmed.

My trading buddy JW Jones who focuses strictly on Options Trading has been cleaning up with the current volatility making 21%, 50% and 67% returns on his last threes trades. This guy loves volatility and always seems to put together an option play with very little risk yet big upside potential.

Just Click Here take a look at a couple charts that Chris Vermeulen has posted......


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Be Patient, Looks Like Gold & Stocks are on the Verge of Breaking Out!

Do you have the kind of patience in your trading that Chris Vermeulen of The Gold and Oil Guy.Com does......

The past couple weeks we have seen strong distribution selling in the equities market followed by equally large days of buying. These buying and selling frenzies have formed a sideways consolidation.

Intraday movements have been sizable and more than enough to shake those trying to pick a direction early out of the market a few times. As fewer traders get involved the price range narrows and becomes compressed. Eventually there will be a breakout in a direction on heavy volume and with any luck it will start a new trend.

As much as I love to trade, I have been sitting on the sidelines for a few weeks giving this market some time to sort it’s self out.... As we all know there are times when you get really aggressive and other times when it’s best to stand aside.

It is very important to note that each trader sees the market in a different way and once it is aligned with what you are comfortable with trading, only then should you step in and trade. If not, then it’s best to wait for more favorable price action. It took me years to figure this out but now that I know what I am looking for and on what time frames, trading is less stressful and I know I don’t need to be trading all the time, there is always another opportunity just around the corner....

Gold has been trading sideways for almost two weeks now as it tries to break free of the December high. It is much in line with the SP500 chart above. I feel Friday or early next week that the market, dollar, metals and oil make some sizable moves either up or down....

Mid-Week Conclusion:
In short, I don’t think it is wise to jump the gun and take on any large positions until we see what happens on Friday overseas....

If nothing happens which is kind of what I am thinking, we should see the extra fear value come back out of the price of gold, silver and oil (drop in price) and possibly help boost equity prices.

To get Chris Vermeulens free weekly reports and trade ideas to your inbox, just sign up at The Gold and Oil Guy.Com


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People Laughed at Adams "How to Trade Crude Oil in Just 90 Seconds"

A few years back our partner Adam Hewison did a video about learning how to trade crude oil in 90 seconds. Some people laughed, but they’re not laughing now as huge profits continue to pile up in the crude oil market thanks to this tried and true method of trading.

When you watch the video you must realize that we have upgraded the MarketClub interface to a much higher standard. However, the concept of trading has remained the same. The same rules apply now just as they did 4 years ago.

So wouldn’t you like to be trading with a proven trading plan that actually works? Now you can, thanks to MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology. It is easy to learn, quick to implement and the rest you will see on your bottom line.

You have clear, concise signals that show you the trend and where the market is headed. Is this approach correct 100% of the time? Absolutely not, there’s not one program out there that is correct 100% of the time in any market. If you see something like that....Run the other way as it’s a scam.

Look at the recent opportunity you missed by not using MarketClub’s Trade Triangle technology.

Adam is putting his decades of experience on the line here, but we want you to watch this video and see just what we were saying years ago. Notice how we haven’t changed courses with the latest and greatest and see why we haven’t changed our approach to the market. The reason? It works. And why would you want to change a winning system?

Just click here to view the amazing December ’07 video. As always our videos are free to watch, even the ones we consider classics like this one.

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Important Article on Long Term Trends in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil....and Much More!

If you are trading with multiple time frames it's a good idea to be open minded and every now and then look at some different time frames to be sure you have a solid understanding for the longer term trends in play. I will admit that it’s easy to get caught up in trading the shorter time frames like the 1, 10, and 60 minute charts especially when there are large intraday movements. But every night you must reset your thinking by looking at the bigger picture.

Here are the weekly and daily charts which I think provide a big picture view of things.....Read "Important Article on Long Term Trends in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil"


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Precious Metal Target Zones

The gold and silver markets rallied dramatically to the upside as concerns and worries over oil supplies, inflation, and general nervousness in the world markets pushed both metals into new high ground.

We have just completed a new short video where we share with you our upside target zones for gold. The video only takes a few minutes to watch and emphasizes how important technical analysis is in the gold market. Our weekly Trade Triangles have been long gold from $1,368 and it looks as though that position is going to work out well.

We also refer back to a video that we made on September 20th last year, which underscores the importance of cyclic work in the gold market and, how if these same cycles hold true, can predict with a fair degree of certainty when the next cyclic high is going to occur.

We reveal all of this in this new short video that we think you'll find both informative and educational. And as always all our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.

Want to trade like Adam? Click here for FREE lessons.

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Are we in the Late Stages of a Major Trend?

Last weeks crude oil spike created some exciting trading and so far 2011 has been interesting to say the least. Stocks and commodities have been jumping around with high volatility generating mixed trading signals. This choppy price action typically indicates trends are in their late stages. The late stages of a trend is very difficult to trade because volatility rises meaning larger day to day price swings, and at any time the price could either drop like a rock or go parabolic surging higher in value. Generally the largest moves take place during the final 10% of trend, but with a sharp rise in price keep in mind the day to day gyrations are much larger than normal, hence the false buy and sell signals back to back on some investment vehicles.

Taking a look at the charts it’s clear that we are on the edge of some sizable moves in both stocks and commodities. It’s just a matter of time before a correction is confirmed or this current pullback in stocks is just a dip (buying opportunity). I am in favor of the longer term trend at work here (bull market) but it only takes a 1 or 2 bid down days and that could change.

SPY (SP500 Price Action) – 60 Minute Chart
This chart shows intraday price action with my market internals. It is signaling a short term bottom within the overall uptrend on the equities market. The big question is if this is a just an opportunity to buy into this Fed induced bull market or the start of a larger correction?

Currently I am bullish but the next couple trading sessions could confirm my bullish view or a correction could be unfolding. Until then, we must remain cautious.

Price Of Gold – Weekly Chart
Gold has staged a strong recovery in the past four weeks. But it has yet to break to a new high. I do feel as though it will head higher because of the way silver has been performing (new highs). But it is very possible we get a pause for a week or two before continuing higher.

Because of the international concerns in the Middle East both gold and silver should hold up well even if the US dollar bounces off support. But, if the US dollar breaks down below its key support level we could see stocks and commodities go parabolic and surge higher in the coming months. It’s going to be interesting year to say least…....

Dollar Weekly Chart
This long term view of the dollar shows a MAJOR level which if penetrated will cause some very large movements across the board (stocks, commodities and currencies).

In short, a breakdown will most likely cause a spike in stocks and commodities across the board which could last up to 12 months in length. On the flip side a bounce from this support zone will trigger a pullback in both stocks and commodities. This weekly chart is something we must keep our eye on each Friday as the weekly candle closes on the chart.

Weekend Trend Report:
In short, 2011 has been interesting but trading wise it’s has yet to provide any real low risk trade setups which I am willing to put much money on. There are times when trading is great and times when it’s not. It all comes down to managing money/risk by trading small during choppy times (late stages of trends), and times when we add to positions as they mature building a sizable portfolio of investments which I think will start to unfold over the next few months.

I continue to analyze the market probing it for small positions as this market flashes short term buy and sell signals. Last week we say a lot of emotional trading and that typically indicates large daily price swings should continue for some time still so keep trades small and manage you positions.

You can get our FREE Weekly Analysis here at The Gold and Oil Guy.Com


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J.W. Jones: Mr. Market Sends Oil Investors Mix Signals

While this week was shortened due to the President’s Day holiday, it has been quite a ride for traders and investors. The 24 hour news cycle certainly intensifies current market conditions as any news focusing on oil or the Middle East protests moves markets. Thursday the International Energy Agency came out and indicated that the expected drawdown in crude oil supplies coming from Libya was being exaggerated. Immediately upon the release of this information light sweet crude oil got hammered and stocks rallied from day lows.

By now most market prognosticators and the punditry will be out declaring that oil prices are going to continue lower and equities are on sale and primed for a snapback rally. I’m not sure that it is that easy. Mr. Market makes a habit of confusing investors with mixed signals. One thing is certainly clear from the recent price action, rising oil prices are not positive for equities here in the United States. What is also clear when looking at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT) version of inflation data (http://bpp.mit.edu) for the United States, it becomes rather obvious that inflation continues to ramp higher in the short term and also on monthly and annual time frames.

If inflation continues to work higher, it would be expected that light sweet crude oil futures prices would work higher as well. The dollar index futures have been selling off while oil and precious metals have rallied until the IEA news came out on Thursday. What should be noted from the recent uncertainty in the marketplace is that the U.S. Dollar Index futures did not rally. This is the “dog that didn’t bark.” During recent periods of market uncertainty such as the European sovereign debt crisis, the U.S. Dollar was considered a safe haven. This most recent market uncertainty caused by political instability in the Middle East has seen the U.S. Dollar Index futures sell off while gold and silver rallied as investors looked to the shiny metals for safety.

So what do all of the mixed signals relating to financial markets really mean? It’s simple, the U.S. economy is not on solid ground, rising oil prices will damage the economy, the world does not necessarily view the U.S. Dollar as a safe haven, and inflation is rising. With all of that being said, what if this is just the beginning of a major rally in energy and the metals? What if prices are going to pull back to key breakout levels, test them successfully, and probe to new highs? As can be seen from the chart above, the U.S. Dollar Index is poised to test recent lows. Should price test the lows and breakdown, oil and the metals could rally in lockstep in a parabolic move.

The daily chart of light sweet crude oil futures illustrates the breakout level that oil prices surged from.

I am expecting a test of that level at some point in the near future. If that level holds, oil prices could be poised to take off to the upside. If prices were to move considerably higher it could place downward pressure on equities and would correspond with the U.S. Dollar cycle lows which are expected by most sophisticated analysts sometime this spring. The intermediate to longer term fundamentals in the oil space are strong and technical analysis could also affirm higher prices very soon. If we see the key breakout level hold and a new rally takes shape on the heels of a lower dollar, the equity market could be vulnerable.

The next few days/weeks are going to prove critical as a lower dollar could change everything. A quick look at the silver futures daily chart illustrates the key breakout level which will likely offer a solid risk / reward type of setup.

As can be seen, silver has had a huge run higher and has broken out to new all-time highs. Gold has moved higher but has yet to breakout and could play catch up while silver consolidates. Longer term I remain bullish on precious metals and oil, but volatility is likely to increase in both asset classes going forward, particularly if inflation continues to increase. Patience and discipline will be critical in order to enter positions where the risk / reward validates an entry.

As for the equity market, it remains to be seen what we will see next week. I am not convinced that the issues in the Middle East are over and that oil is going to come crashing back down to previous price levels. Oil has broken out and if the breakout levels hold I would expect a continuation move higher. If we see price action in oil transpire in that fashion, equities will be for sale and prices could plummet tremendously.

I will be watching to see how much of the recent move lower is retraced. If we see a 50% retracement and prices rollover the S&P 500 will likely be magnetized to the 1275-1285 price range. If that price level is tested and fails, we are likely going to see a 10% correction and potentially more. The daily charts of SPX listed below illustrate the key Fibonacci retracement levels as well as the key longer term price levels that could be tested if prices rollover.

While lower prices are possible, if we see a retracement of the recent move which exceeds the 50% retracement level in short order prices will likely test recent highs and begin working higher yet again. The price action on Friday and next week is going to be critical to evaluate as many traders and market participants are going to be watching the price action closely looking for any clues that might help indicate directionality.

For right now, I am going to be patient and sit in cash and wait for high probability low risk setups to emerge. As I have said many times, sitting on the sidelines can be the best trade of all!

Get More Trade Ideas J.W. Jones visit Options Trading Signals.Com


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Is it Really That Easy to Replace Libyan Oil

If you listen to the TV news man we have nothing to worry about. Saudi Arabia will make up for the Libyan crude oil not making it to the market. Well, we know it's just not that simple. Most European refiners that rely on this sweet light crude coming out of Libya cannot handle the high sulphur content and sour nature of the Saudi crude. And that's if the Saudis can even back up the ability to increase their production on the drop of the dime.

Here's how the oil producing countries stack up in quality of oil they produce......

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High Oil Prices Have Fund Managers Moving Into "Risk Off" Mode

Let's ask ourselves "what is the true cost of oil". Economists are furiously downsizing their economic growth forecasts for 2011 in the wake of the oil price spike, both for the US and for the world at large. Since last week, West Texas crude prices have soared $12 from $86 to $98. Each $1 increase in the price of oil jumps gasoline prices by 2.5 cents. Each one cent rise in the cost of gasoline takes $1 billion out of the pockets of consumers.

If oil stays at this price, it removes $30 billion from the pockets of consumers. At $110 a barrel, it short changes them by $60 billion, or 4.1% of GDP. Subtract this out from even the most optimistic GDP forecasts for this year, and you end up with negative numbers. That, my friends, is what they call a recession. If you wonder why hedge fund managers have lurched into an aggressive "RISK OFF" mode, are throwing their babies out with the bathwater, and why the volatility index is spiking to three month highs, this is why.

Posted courtesy of our partner John Thomas, "The Mad Hedge Fund Trader"


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WIA: The Resurrection of Peak Oil

1) The Resurrection of Peak Oil

It has been a long wait for “peak oilers,” whose passionate belief is that the world will run out of oil in coming years, sending prices through the roof.

This splinter religion came into being in 1956 when M. King Hubbert produced some simple supply/demand charts showing that US reserves of Texas tea would dry up by 1965-70, forcing a heavy reliance on imports with which we have become all too familiar. This was later expanded globally, implying that Western civilization would come to a grinding halt.

It all seemed very prescient, when in 1973 OPEC raised prices from $3/barrel to $12 in the wake of the Yom Kippur war, and the resulting boycott caused enormous lines at American gas stations. It happened again in 1979 with the fall of the Shah of Iran, taking crude from $12 to $40. Then Saudi overproduction kicked in big time, bring 20 years of falling prices, all the way down to $8. At the 1998 low, oil was selling for less than the barrel that contained it.

Then came China and the commodities boom, which suddenly sent the value of all things “hard” skyward. Virtually overnight, the Middle Kingdom became the world’s largest marginal consumer of not only oil, but all energy sources. By 2008, peak oilers had the second coming in sight, with prices soaring to $150/barrel.

Enter the Great Recession. The real damage this caused was not the temporary collapse of prices down to $28/barrel and the wiping out of many industry participants. It was the two year freeze on the financing of new exploration and development, a byproduct of the Wall Street crash. BP’s Gulf oil spill didn’t help matters either. These events have combined to create a bubble in the energy pipeline, the implications of which we may only just now be seeing.

Now the Middle East is blowing up. With populations exploding, per capita incomes plunging, and a religion that mires them in the 14th century, this sort of viral, grass roots revolution could have, and should have happened any time over the last 40 years. It took cell phones, social media, and the Internet to provide the spark. At first, the world didn’t care, as Egypt and Tunisia produce little oil, and are non-factors in the global economy.

Now it’s Libya’s turn, and it’s a different kettle of fish. Having dealt with the Libyan government myself since 1968—Muammar Khadafi overthrew the government just before I was about to cross the border —I can only say this couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. I missed the Pan Am flight he blew up over Lockerbie, Scotland by a week and lost a few friends. The sooner he is found hanging by his heels from a lamp post, the better.

The revolution there raises broader, far more concerning questions. If it can happen in Libya, why not in Saudi Arabia, where the government is still essentially tribal in nature and will not be winning any prizes for their human rights record anytime soon. Women are still not allowed to drive. Take their 12 million barrels/day off the market, even for a few days, and the geopolitical implications are large.

Which brings me back to peak oil. After a quiet, long term downsizing, the US now only imports 2 million barrels a day from the Middle East. Canada is now our largest foreign supplier, followed by Mexico and Venezuela. But oil is a globally traded commodity, and if you prick the supply line in one place we all have to pay. Remove Saudi Arabia from the picture, and the results could be catastrophic, for China first, but for ourselves as well.

Even without these “Armageddon” scenarios, we are still facing a huge problem. World oil production today is 82-83 million barrels/day. There is probably another 5 million barrels/day in reserve. By 2015, an additional 3 million barrels/ day in will come on stream that was financed prior to the Wall Street melt down. After that, new supplies become very problematic.

Even if the US can keep its own demand relatively flat through modest economic growth, conservation, new efficiencies, alternatives, and switching to natural gas, China promises to eat up all of this increase. That’s when the sushi hits the fan. I think oil could hit $300/barrel by 2020, or $225 in today’s prices. If you are wondering why I have become so cautious about investing lately, this is a major reason why.

Which leads us all to the bigger question of how do we make a buck out of all of this? Brent crude, which trades in Europe, is already at $104.40/barrel, a $12/barrel premium to our own West Texas intermediate. Prices here have stayed low because of a shortage of storage facilities. My buddies in the field also tell me there is some elaborate conspiracy to keep West Texas artificially low, because the prices for Middle Eastern imports are priced off of that highly manipulated benchmark. It is far more likely that West Texas trades up to Brent than the other way around.

I missed the window to get in last week at $85/barrel. But if you believe it’s going substantially higher, it is not too late to get involved. For a start, do notbuy the oil ETF (USO). The tracking error caused by the contango will kill you, assuring that you will take all of the risk but get few of the benefits.

Individual oil major stocks that I have been recommending, like ExxonMobil (XOM), BP (BP), and ConocoPhillips (COP) are great vehicles. A simple alternative is to pick up the double long oil majors ETF (DIG). These guys have massive supplies in the pipeline that are about to be revalued by higher prices. So are independents like Occidental Petroleum (OXY). You can throw oil service companies into the mix as well through the ETF (OIH). Higher oil prices almost make alternative energy producers like First Solar (FSLR) much more profitable.

As (OXY) founder, Dr. Armand Hammer, told me when I was a kid, “Keep your eye on oil, because everything stems from that.” Some 40 years later, and I think the old man is still right.

Quote of the Day

“The American hegemon knows no limits, it seems, when it comes to other people’s money for their own consumption….The American answer to a bulging waste line is always manana,” said Bill Gross, managing direct at the bond giant, PIMCO.

Posted courtesy of our partners at The Wealth Insider Alliance

Check out Macro Millionaire John Thomas


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An Interesting Twist on Shorting Gold

In todays short 4 minute video we explain exactly what we mean by a "short gold position." It does not mean we are bearish on gold, however the scenario we point out in this video could make money by being short gold and long another important market.

The video points out what the scenario is, and which market you should be long in, against a short gold position. This is an interesting twist and a video you shouldn't miss.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no registration required. Please feel free to re-tweet this video on Twitter or share this video on Facebook. Also take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think about the video.

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Dian Chu: A Tale of Crudes.....Anybody Got A Big Rig?

From guest blogger By Dian L. Chu at the EconForecast......

On Wednesday, Feb. 16 Israel said Iran is sending two warships into the Suez Canal on way to Syria, and that the action is considered a “provocation.” Due to the long history of bad blood between Israel and Iran, this very possible scenario was enough to even send the bear infested NYMEX crude oil futures volume surging midday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on Nymex rose to just below $85, while Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange spiked $2.17 higher to $103.81 a barrel, a 29 month high, widening the WTI Brent spread to a new record near $19.

High Middle East Tension

Then on Friday, Feb. 18, AFP reported that permission has been granted for Iranian warships to transit the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean. Canal officials say it would be the first time Iranian warships have made the passage since the 1979 Islamic revolution, while Israel has labeled the Iranian action as "hostile' and said Israel was closely monitoring the situation.
As the worst Israel-Iran conflict scenario failed to materialize, at the close Friday Feb. 18, Brent crude oil for April settled at $102.79 while WTI for April delivery rose to $89.71, narrowing the spread to $13.11.

Crude Glut at Cushing, OK

Since WTI is lighter and sweeter crude which requires less processing, it has historically enjoyed a $1 – $2 a barrel price premium to Brent crude oil. According to Bloomberg, the WTI Brent gap averaged only 76 cents last year.

However, WTI’s premium disappeared about a year ago and in recent days it has been trading at more than a $10/bbl discount to Brent mainly due to rising inventory levels at Cushing OK, the delivery and price settling point of Nymex crude futures.....Click Here to Read The Entire Article and View Dian's Charts.



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Technical Formations You Shouldn't Miss

Experienced traders have been using this particular technical formation for many years and it continues to produce profits for those who can spot it, and better yet, take advantage of it.

In this new short video we are going to share the market, the pattern, and a price projection where we think this market is headed based the MarketClub Trade Triangle technology.

We hope that this educational video will help you spot this very same technical formation in the future. The video is extremely short and will only take a few minutes of your time, however, the lesson is priceless.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Our only request is that you tell your friends about The Crude Oil Trader by Tweeting and sharing this post on Facebook and other social networking sites. We would also enjoy hearing from you, so please feel free to comment here about this video.

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Do You Know Where to Find our MarketClub Webinar Archives?

MarketClub webinars are a great free, educational and sales tool that allows users interact with Adam. Not everyone can make it to the live webinars whether it be because of the user limit, scheduling etc so I wanted to make sure you knew where you could find our webinar archives.

Here is a link to our latest webinar from February 9th...."Strategy Trading Webinar"

Here is a link to our "Upcoming Webinar Page". It will update with the latest webinar and information so you can continue to use the same link for your users for multiple webinars. It also has a list of archived webinars so that users can see all past webinars.


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