Precious Metals Charts Point to Higher Prices – Part II

Over the recent couple months the precious metals charts have made some sizable moves. Most investors and traders were caught off guard by the sharp avalanche type sell off and lost a lot of hard earned capital in just a few trading sessions. Gold dropped over 20% and silver a whopping 40%.

The crazy thing about all this is that these types of moves in precious metals can be avoided and even taken advantage of in certain situations. There is no reason for anyone to continue holding on to those positions after they pullback 6% of more because of the type of price and volume action both gold and silver had been displaying in the past few sessions.

I warned investors on August 31^st that precious metals were about to top any day and that protective stops should be tightened or taking profits was also a smart move. It was only 2 trading sessions later that precious metals topped and went into a free fall. You can get my detailed analysis if you read my report “Dollar’s On the Verge of a Relief Rally Look Out!”.

A couple weeks later once precious metals has found support and the uneducated investor’s were licking their wounds wondering what the heck just happened to their trading accounts… I put out another report but this time with a bullish outlook. Silver was currently trading at $29.96 and I had a $35-$36 price target over the next two months. Gold was trading down at $1611 and I saw it heading back up to $1750-$1775 area before finding resistance and pulling back. Both these forecasts were reached over the next two months. You can quickly review the report called “Precious Metals Charts Point to higher Prices” for more info.

With all that said, what exactly are the charts saying right now?

Current Precious Metals Charts Summary:

The past 6 weeks we have been watching both gold and silver struggle to hold up but they have managed to grind their way to my price targets. After reaching those targets a couple weeks ago sellers have stepped back into the precious metals market and put pressure these metals.

Last week gold and silver started to pullback in a big way with rising volume. This could just be the start of something much larger which I will cover in just a moment.

The wild card for precious metals and for every stock and commodity for that matter is Europe. Every other day there seems to be headline news moving the market and most of takes place in overnight trading for those of us living in North America. It’s this wild card which is keeping me from getting aggressive in the market right now.

Let’s take a look at the charts…

Silver Precious Metals Chart:

Silver is currently in a down trend and may be starting another leg down this week. Long term I am bullish but for the next couple months I am remain neutral to bearish for silver until it forms a base to start a new uptrend from.

Precious Metals Charts

 Gold Precious Metals Chart:

Currently I am neutral/bearish on gold. If it can trade sideways for a few weeks then I will become bullish.

Precious-Metals-Charts

 Precious Metals Charts Conclusion:

In short, I feel there is a good chance the US dollar will continue higher and if that happens we should see strong selling in North American equities, commodities and likely on the precious metals charts.

Financial markets around the world are at a tipping point meaning something really big is about to take place. The question is which way will investment move. The only thing we can do is trade with the current trends, price patterns and volume.

At this time I still see a higher dollar and that means lower stocks and commodities. This could change at the drop of a hat depending on the news that comes out of Europe so the key to trading right now is to remain cash rich and taking only small positions in the market.

If you would like learn more about etf trading and receive my daily pre-market videos, intraday updates and detailed trade alerts which even the most novice trader can follow then join my FREE trading education newsletter and my premium trading alert service here at  The Gold and Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil rose to as high as 103.37 last week but failed to sustain above 100 psychological level and retreated. A short term top should be formed and initial bias is mildly on the downside for deeper pull back towards 94.65 support. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 89.16/17 cluster support (50% retracement of 74.95 to 103.37) and bring rebound. On the upside, above 100.15 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 103.37 resistance is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay near term neutral and expect more sideway trading first.

In the bigger picture, current development indicates the fall from 114.83 has finished at 74.95. The structure suggests it's merely a correction or part of a consolidation pattern. Hence, rise from 33.2 is not finished yet. As long as 89.16/7 support holds, we'd now favor a break of 114.83 resistance to resume the rally from 33.2. Meanwhile, break of 64.23 support is needed to confirm completion of the whole rise from 33.2. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bullish in crude oil.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

One to Three Years Left For Gold’s Run

Gold has a couple more years to outperform the stock market before the end of this leg, if history is any guide.

This week's chart looks at the Dow Jones Industrial Average expressed in terms of the number of ounces of gold it would take to "buy" the DJIA's index value.  This is a popular comparison that a lot of chartists like to show, especially when it gets up to a really high level like it did back in 1999-2000, at the end of the tech bubble.

 

It has been falling since then, as gold prices have gone higher.  Having an ounce of gold become more valuable means that it takes less of it to buy something else.  And the (violently) sideways movement of the stock market over the past decade has allowed gold's price rise to pull this ratio back down toward "normal" levels seen over the past century.

Based on this way of looking at the DJIA, there have been 3 big bubble tops in the DJIA as expressed in ounces of gold.  What I find interesting and relevant just now is that the declines out of those first two took 13 and 14 years respectively.  So if the current decline follows the same course, then we can expect this ratio to bottom out about 13-14 years from the most recent top.

Doing the math on that is a little bit problematic, since the last top was actually 2 tops, in August 1999 and October 2000.  So if we take 13 years from 1999, and 14 years from 2000, that gives us a date range of 2012-2014 for when to expect a bottom for this ratio. 

That tells us about the "when", but it does not tell us about the "how far".  The bottoms for this ratio in the 1930s and 1940s were down below 3.0, and it got all the way down to 1.3 at the low in January 1980 (based on monthly closes).  If the DJIA were to stay around 12,000 for the next few years, then a ratio of 2-3 would mean gold at around $4000 to $6000 an ounce.  Or the ratio could get down below 3 by having gold stay where it is, and the DJIA get cut in half, or some other combination of movements.  That's how the math works. 

It is risky to forecast both the timing and the price for the end of a trend, so I'll refrain from endorsing those numbers.  I just offer them as food for thought.  Nothing mandates that this ratio reach any particular level. 

The more important conclusion to take from this is that the decline in this ratio does not seem to be done, and is not due to be done for a little while longer.  But the end to this decline in the DJIA/gold ratio is going to come someday, probably when the Fed decides to wake up and start fighting inflation again via higher interest rates.  That does not appear to be on their agenda any time soon. 

Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report

Crude Oil Confirms Thursdays Key Reversal Down Day

Crude oil closed lower on Friday confirming yesterday's key reversal down and closed below the 10 day moving average crossing at 98.11 hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.46 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off this month's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 110.46. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.46. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 89.17.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extended this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.669 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.525. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.669. First support is today's low crossing at 3.285. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1748.40. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1681.20 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1797.60 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1797.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1711.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1681.20.


How to Trade Oil ETFs When $100 Per Barrel is Reached

Crude Ends Below $98 As Rally Fades

Crude oil futures prices dropped Friday, tipping under $98 a barrel in further retreat from the triple digit levels hit earlier this week. After topping $100 Wednesday following the sale of a key U.S. pipeline, traders have pulled back due to concerns about ripple effects from Europe's debt crisis and worries that crude rallied too high, too fast.

While the sale and planned reversal of the Seaway Pipeline should ameliorate a U.S. supply glut beginning sometime next year, in the short term the effect on the physical crude markets will be minimal. For that reason, the spike in oil futures appeared to be an overreaction for many market participants, who opted to lock in returns.

"It's reached levels where you should be taking profits," said Brian LaRose, an energy analyst at brokerage United-ICAP. "There is the risk here in the short term for a substantial correction." Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled $1.41, or 1.4%, lower at $97.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling as low as $96.64 in earlier trading.....Read the entire Rigzone article.

So Much For One Hundred Dollars Per Barrel

Much was made of WTI crude oil passing the $100.00 mark and many thought that if we closed above $100 a barrel we would be in some type of new era for oil. Well that era is now over and lasted only a day as European debt fears, as well as the realization that the reversal of the seaway pipeline ultimately is more bearish then bullish. A terrible Italian and now Spanish debt auction stirred fears that the Euro zone credit woes are expanding.

Lack of confidence in the EU is causing buyers of Eurozone debt to command post EU record highs. Fear of a EU meltdown is overshadowing the fact that in the US our economy is starting to recover. More evidence yesterday came with a strong jobless claims number, retail sales, housing starts as well as other data that seems to suggest we are starting to move. The dollar and bond rallied in a safe haven bid and commodities started to tumble.

Get ready to party! Natural Gas supply hit a record high! The Energy Information Agency reported working gas in storage was 3,850 Bcf as of Friday, November 11, 2011. This represents a net increase of 19 bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 14 bcf higher than last year at this time and 224 bcf above the 5 year average of 3,626 bcf. In the East region, stocks were 58 bcf above the 5 year average following net injections of 9 bcf.

Stocks in the producing region were 148 bcf above the 5 year average of 1,098 bcf after a net injection of 11 bcf. Stocks in the West region were 18 bcf above the 5 year average after a net drawdown of 1 bcf. At 3,850 bcf, total working gas is above the 5 year historical range. Now the question is whether or not we will end the winter at a record.

Reuters News reports, "U.S. natural gas inventories should end winter at a 21 year peak after starting the heating season at an all time high for a third straight year, creating a buffer for consumers over the summer, according to a Reuters poll of traders and analysts. Without winter temperatures that come close to matching last year's severe cold, brimming inventories next spring could spell more trouble for prices, which hit a two year low this week of $3.11 per mm Btu despite the fast approaching peak heating demand season.

The Reuters storage poll put the consensus forecast for end winter inventories at 1.864 trillion cubic feet, nearly 300 billion cubic feet, or 19 percent, above average and the highest since 1991 when stocks in late March stood at 1.912 tcf. Such high inventories at the start of the spring and summer stock building season give utilities more bargaining power when rebuilding supplies for next winter, and can help lower power costs for consumers during summer when prices can go up as air conditioners come on."

Phil Flynn

Make sure you are getting a trial to Phil's daily trade levels by emailing him at pflynn@pfgbest.com to open your account.

Crude Oil Bulls Lose Ground on Key Reversal Down Day

Crude oil posted a key reversal down on Thursday and below the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08 as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off this month's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 94.97 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 110.46. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 97.83. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 94.97.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.695 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.573. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.695. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.326. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold closed lower on Thursday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1743.90 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. If December extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1681.20 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1797.60 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1797.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50. First support is today's low crossing at 1711.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1681.20.


How to Trade Oil ETFs When $100 Per Barrel is Reached

Nymex Crude Tips Back Below $100 Per Barrel

U.S. oil futures slid back below $100 a barrel Thursday, reversing the previous day's gains, as doubts surfaced about the economy's ability to stomach high oil prices.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled down $3.77, or 3.7%, to $98.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The December contract is set to expire at the end of trading Friday. The more heavily traded January contract settled down $3.67, or 3.6%, to $98.93 a barrel.

Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange recently traded down $2.89, or 2.6%, to $108 a barrel.

Nymex futures pushed lower on a wave of selling, as traders thought twice about whether $100 crude was sustainable given the cracks in the global economy. A sinking stock market in the U.S., combined with intensifying worries about Europe's sovereign debt crisis, took the wind out of a price rally that had dominated the oil market for the last several weeks.....Read the entire Rigzonearticle.


How to Trade Oil ETFs When $100 Per Barrel is Reached

Pipeline Reversal Of Fortune

Don't think of it as crude oil prices rallying, think of it as Brent crude prices falling. Oil prices surge above $100 a barrel for the first time since last July as the "broken" global oil market gets fixed in a big way. Conoco Phillips had a big payday by selling its interest in Gulf Coast Seaway pipeline in Cushing, Oklahoma to Enbridge Corporation which will reverse the flow of oil out of instead of into the NYMEX delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma. This is a big step to ending the bottleneck in Cushing and allow the bonanza of Canadian oil sands crude and shale crude to be sent to Gulf Coast refiners that have too often had to rely on foreign imports of crude.

Followers of crude imports realize the cost of imported crude was rising as evidenced by what became a record differential between the Brent Crude versus West Texas Intermediate spread. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which historically Brent Crude traded at a premium to, reversed on a host of challenges. In Oklahoma the influx of crude exceeded refiners ability, or at least desire, to run crude at those rates that would use the influx of new sources of oil. In the Gulf Coast where supplies were tight the infrastructure did not exist to transport the oil in sufficient amount. The US pipelines remain the most popular transport option, carrying about two-thirds of U.S. oil.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Pulls Back Overnight, Bulls Maintain the Advantage

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 110.46. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 98.04. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.08.

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.693 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.570. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.693. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.325. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold was sharply lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1745.20 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness during November. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of September's decline crossing at 1826.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of September's decline crossing at 1826.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of September's decline crossing at 1875.10. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1745.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1681.20.


Don't miss our recent post "How to Trade Oil ETFs When $100 Per Barrel is Reached"

Rigzone: ANWR Bill Boosts Jobs, Domestic Energy Production

Citing an increase in domestic energy production and job creation, the House Natural Resources Committee proposed legislation Friday that would open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and natural gas production.

Committee Chairman Doc Hastings, of Washington, and Alaska Rep. Don Young announced plans to introduce the Alaskan Energy for American Jobs Act, which is part of the energy and infrastructure jobs bill announced by Ohio Rep. John Boehner in early November.

Officials said the act would open less than 3 percent of ANWR's 19 million acres in the North Slope, which the U.S. Geological Survey estimates contains at least 10.4 billion barrels of oil and at peak production can yield nearly 1.5 million barrels of oil per day -- more than the current daily U.S. imports from Saudi Arabia. The area was specifically set aside for energy production by Congress and President Jimmy Carter.

"ANWR is a site that is easily accessible, has great potential and is one of America's most highly concentrated areas of energy resources," Hastings said. "An investment in America's energy security is an investment job creation and infrastructure projects that will benefit every American without job destroying tax increases."

The committee held an oversight hearing in September with local Alaskans vocalizing their support for the bill, saying the plan "benefits local communities, tribes, businesses, Alaska and the nation."

Young said the Highway Trust Fund is struggling "to stay in the black" and believes the Alaskan Energy for American Jobs Act will provide new sources of revenue to fund infrastructure projects.

"This is a common sense plan; the revenue generated from drilling in ANWR will help keep the Highway Trust Fund from defaulting and will create jobs at the same time," Young said.

Carey Hall, an Ice Road Truck Drive with Carlile Transportation Systems believes the plan will keep the Trans-Alaska Pipeline from shutting down, securing jobs for decades to come.

"ANWR is not a band aid for our debt and economy; it is a long term sustainable solution," Ice Hall said during the oversight hearing.

Environmentalists aren't sold on the plan though, saying the benefits are exaggerated. In an interview with the Associated Press on Nov. 11, Pamela Miller said the "legislation is dead on arrival" and it proposes a "false solution to a real crisis." Sierra Club Alaska community organizer Lindsey Hajduk told the AP the connection to jobs is "weak".

Technological advancements have improved the safety of energy production while also lessening environmental impacts of drilling, such as using one drilling platform to cover a 28,000 foot radius -- larger than the size of Washington D.C.

"ANWR would be a great opportunity for the environmental community and the oil industry to work closely together and show what American technology and ingenuity could do," Alaska District Council of Laborers (ADCL) Tim Sharp said in the oversight hearing. ADCL represents approximately 5,000 Alaskan union members.

Fenton Okomailak Rexford, Tribal Administrator for the Native Village of Katovik, said development of the North Slope will keep his community alive by sustaining a local school and continuing to provide search and rescue, police and fire protection.

"We would not favor development of the Coastal Plain unless we were confident that development can occur without jeopardizing our way of life. Responsible development of ANWR is a matter of self determination for my people," Rexford said. "Development of the Coastal Plain of ANWR is a win-win situation for the American people, particularly for those of us who call this area home."

The bill is expected to move through the House in the coming weeks. The Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources is set to hear testimony Nov. 18.


Posted courtesy of Rigzone.Com

EIA: Rail Delivery of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Rising

More U.S. crude oil is being shipped by rail, especially from North Dakota where a lack of pipelines has companies relying on tank cars to bring the state's soaring oil production to market. Pipelines remain the most popular transport option, carrying about two thirds of U.S. oil and petroleum products, but rail is on the rise.

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) tracks combined rail movements of oil and refined petroleum products. In the first ten months of 2011, nearly 300,000 tank cars transported U.S. oil and petroleum products, up 9.1% from the same period in 2010, according to AAR. The growth in petroleum by rail shipments is much stronger than the 1.8% increase for all railroad cargo combined during the same period.

While AAR does not issue separate data on crude oil and product shipments via rail, it notes that anecdotal evidence indicates most of the growth in the crude oil and petroleum products category is likely due to crude shipments. Based on different sources of rail traffic data, the trade group said shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas accounted for about 2% of all carloads in 2008, 3% in 2009, 7% in 2010, and about 11% so far in 2011. One carload holds 30,000 gallons of oil.

Tank cars are in strong demand in North Dakota, where oil production has soared from about 343,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in January to a record high of about 464,000 bbl/d in September, according to North Dakota's Department of Minerals Resources (DMR), due to the increasing amount of crude oil extracted from rock in the Bakken Shale. DMR expects North Dakota will pass California during the second quarter of next year to become the third biggest oil-producing state. Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) and other railway companies are building or expanding terminals and adding tank cars to transport North Dakota's growing oil supplies to Gulf Coast refineries.

On November 7, the first crude oil unit train on the Bakken Oil Express, a newly constructed rail hub near Dickinson, North Dakota, departed via the BNSF Railway carrying its first shipment, 70,000 barrels of crude oil destined for St. James, Louisiana. The Bakken Oil Express receives Bakken-area crude oil by both truck and pipeline and has a current takeaway capacity of 100,000 bbl/d. The Bakken Oil Express is already planning a second phase of construction that would significantly expand its takeaway capacity to more than 250,000 bbl/d.

Deliveries of tank cars should total about 8,000 this year, up from only 4,839 last year, and then increase to 11,000 tank cars in 2012, according to Economic Planning Associates Inc., a consulting firm that tracks rail car assemblies. The firm does not have a breakdown of how many of the new tank cars will be devoted to carrying crude oil. Tank cars are also used for shipping ethanol, chemicals, fertilizer, and corn syrup.

Tank cars would also be useful in the major oil hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, where a glut of supply is depressing the key U.S. benchmark crude oil price. Pipelines bringing oil into Cushing from the north are nearly full and there is not enough pipeline infrastructure to move oil south out of the area to Gulf Coast refineries. The Surface Transportation Board (STB), the federal agency that resolves railroad rate and service disputes and reviews railroad mergers, told EIA that it saw little movement in recent months of crude oil out of Cushing by rail. Railway companies send the STB confidential information on their cargo shipments and where they are sending them.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on the Association of American Railroads.
Note: Data are weekly average originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, and exclude U.S. operations of Canadian National Railways and Canadian Pacific Railway; one carload holds 30,000 gallons.

Crude Oil Opens at a Four Month High

Crude oil was slightly higher overnight before hitting $100 per barrel for the first time in nearly four months as it extends the rally off Octobers low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible. If December extends the rally off Octobers low, the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 94.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.41. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 97.01. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 94.17.

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.720 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.616. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.720. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.387. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1738.50 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of September's decline crossing at 1826.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of September's decline crossing at 1826.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of September's decline crossing at 1875.10. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1738.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1681.20.

Phil Flynn: The Widow Maker Continues To Scream!

While the global markets fret about another subpar Italian auction and turmoil in Europe, the energy complex is worrying about global tightness in distillate supply. The heating oil versus gasoline spread continues to scream so refiners know where to put their focus. Demand is screaming, surging in Japan, China, South America and the spread has put in its best performance in years. Not only is heating oil trading at a premium to heat oil, something that would have been almost unthinkable just a few years ago, but has picked up a dime on the spread.


U.S. supply of distillate, when compared to demand, is at a four year low. Dow Jones reports, "Surging demand for heating oil and diesel fuel, at a time of slumping gasoline consumption, has pushed the price difference between the fuels to its highest level since January 2009r December delivery settled Friday at nearly 57 cents a gallon, or about 18%, higher than the price of RBOB gasoline futures. Early Monday, the gap widened to near 65c. EIA says US diesel/heating oil demand was at 3 1/2 year high in latest 4 weeks, while gasoline use is at a 12 year low for this time of year." US Exports of diesel are near an all time high.


Reuters News reported that, "Gasoil refining margins in Europe pushed higher on Monday, up to levels not reached since January 2009, as tight supply continued to bite and traders eyed the expected seasonal demand from Germany with the weather about to turn colder. The ICE gasoil crack was trading at around $21.58 a barrel at 1655 GMT, its highest level since January 2009, up from Friday's $19.74 a barrel." We have been telling you about the potential for this spread for some time!


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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Bulls All Take a Slide

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off this month's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 92.96 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.41. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 95.59. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 92.96.

Natural gas gapped down and closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.758 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.686. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.758. First support is today's low crossing at 3.449. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold closed lower on Monday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1726.00 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1875.10. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1726.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1681.20.


How to Trade Oil ETFs When $100 Per Barrel is Reached

How to Trade Oil ETFs When $100p/b is Reached

Crude oil was THE commodity to trade back in 2007-2008 when prices rocketed above $145 per barrel then dropped like a rock all the way back down to $35 per barrel leaving many investors and traders either greatly rewarded or dead broke.

Since then the focus of the world has moved to gold and silver as currencies spiral out of control with more and more reasons why individuals and entire countries should focus on owning physical metals rather than eroding currencies.

Just because a commodity is not under the direct spot light does not mean you can’t trade it or make money from it. With that said here is my analysis on how to trade oil if $100 per barrel is reached in the coming trading days.

Let’s take a look at the charts…

Long Term Weekly Oil Futures Chart

Here you can see how oil is trading round the $100 level. When the price is trading below it then $100 will act as resistance and when oil is above then it becomes support.

How To Trade Oil ETF

Intermediate Term Daily Oil Trading Chart:

This is more of a close up look at oil and the $100 price point. Notice how oil has moved higher for an entire month without any real pullbacks and that it has a clean support trend line underneath. If oil sees some big sellers step in here at the $100 – $104 level then I expect the green support trend line to be broken. If that takes place oil could quickly and easily drop back down to the $90-$92 area.

How To Trade Crude Oil

How to Trade Oil Using an Oil ETF

This chart shows a long (bullish) oil ETF along with its price by volume levels. I like to review the price by volume analysis from time to time when nearing a major support or resistance level on a chart.  For those who have difficulty finding support and resistance levels then this indicator/volume analysis tool will take most of your guess work out of the equation.

To make a long story short, the longer the volume bars on the left side of the chart are then the more people either bought or sold crude oil at that price. Keep in mind that it does not matter if they bought or sold here… the key to remember is that there are a lot of new positions here and that is where people exit their positions at breakeven because they held such a large draw down over the past few months and just want their money back.

Most traders and investors who trade off pure emotions (fear/greed) would have held a losing position through the August – October selloff and are now going to be more than happy to exit the trade at breakeven and move on to the next emotional roller coaster. It’s this type of trading which allows the non-emotional traders who thrive off of price action and mass psychology to catch price swings in the oil market.

The chart below clearly shows that oil is entering into resistance level and a pullback is becoming more likely each day. Those looking for an etf how to trade oil should look at buying SCO ETF. This oil ETF goes up in value when oil loses value.

How To Trade Oil ETFs

How to Trade Oil and Oil ETFs Conclusion:

In short, oil is becoming overbought meaning it has moved up to far too fast and should have some profit taking shortly. The fact the oil is reaching a century number ($100) I feel there will be a couple days of selling starting soon. Traders looking to play this support trendline breakdown should look at trading SCO oil etf.

If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Analysis Join Now at  Gold and Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

The Final Market Rally up Before The Big Leg Down is Near an End

Back on October 3^rd, I penned a public article  forecasting a major low in the SP 500 to occur around 1088.  The SP 500 had been declining from the 1370 highs this May and was in the 1130’s and nearing its final descent in a corrective pattern.  The next day, the market bottomed intra-day at 1074 and closed north of 1100.  Since that time, we have rallied impressively to a high of 1292, with a strong pullback to 1215, and now what I believe is the finally rally to a major top formation.

This current rally is part of a normal retracement of the 1370 highs to 1074 lows that similarly occurred in the 2008 rally off the first major market drop.  One would expect this rally to take a few months to complete from October 4^th and likely peak sometime between now and Christmas in the 1292-1320 ranges as outlined below.

First you must understand that my forecasts are largely based on human behavioral patterns and not economic news or European headlines.  The crowd commonly buys and sells in the same fear and greed swing patterns over and over again throughout history.  Once you understand these patterns, you can make pretty strong educated guesses on the direction and pivot highs and lows within a few percentage points.  Other than those wave patterns, there are other indicators I use to confirm what I think I’m seeing, so let’s review:

1.  The bullish Percent Index readings are now at 72%, which typically is an area that marks a rally high in the markets.  These indicators tell you how many of the SP 500 stocks have bullish point and figure charts.  Typically a reading over 70% is way overbought and all bulls are on board, and a reading below 30% is the opposite.   The market bottomed this summer twice on August 8^th and October 4^th as these readings were sub 30%.  The market topped in July at 1356 as this reading was over 70%. With my wave patterns and this reading now again over 70%, it’s a strong warning of an imminent reversal.
2. Sentiment Indicators are now back to full on bullish.  In the most recent AAII survey, we have nearly 46% of those polled bullish, up from an extreme low of 24% in early October near the market lows.  In addition, the Bears in this survey are at a near extreme low of 24% of those polled, leaving the ratio at almost 2 to 1 bulls.  This is another warning flag.

The Bullish Percent Index chart is below with some notations:

Stock Market Forecast

Longer term, my best view right now is that this is a counter-trend bounce off the 1074 lows that will give way to another big down leg.

Here is my reasoning:

First, look at the SP 500 chart. I show the congestion zone from 1275-1300.  My Fibonacci and wave targets have been 1292/93-1306 for a few weeks; we hit 1292/93 once and fell hard.  The market is trying to work back up there in this final E wave up I think.  So far 1274-76 were hit (One of my targets) and we will see if it can run to 1292/93 and the final is 1306-08.

Stock Market forecast Prediction

This is a B wave rally or wave 2 rally off the 1074 lows. We are in a bear cycle bounce.

From March of 2009 (I forecasted a market low on Feb 25th 2009), the market rallied from 666 to 1370 in 3 clear waves, ABC. Those are corrective patterns of a bear market. The market topped at .786% of the 2007 highs to 2009 lows at 1370 with Bin Laden’s death, a seminal event.

Since then 5 waves down (impulsive) to 1074 marked a 38% retrace of the Bear rally that went from 666 to 1370.

This is a counter trend rally from 1074 to 3 potential pivot areas. 1292 (which I forecast and already hit), 1306-1308, and max 1320. 1306-08 is probably the max in my views.

Why?

A wave: 1074-1233 wave A from October 4th lows.  (I forecasted a bottom on October 3rd)

B wave:  1233-1195 wave B (A mild .236% retrace of A wave)

C wave: 1195- 1292, 1308, 1320 wave C  (Where wave c is either .618, .71, or .786 of wave A (159 points 1074-1233)

This recent pattern in a more microcosmic view is much like the ABC rally from 666 to 1370. There the A wave was huge and went from from 666 to 1221.  The B wave 1221-1010; and then the C wave 1010-1370.  That C wave was only 64% of the A wave.  All of those pivots, 1010, 1221, 666, 1370 etc. have Fibonacci relationships to prior market highs and lows.

I’m looking for this current counter-trend rally to mimic the nature of the 2009-2011 ABC Rally.  That means this final pattern up now we are in from 1195 pivot would be much less substantial than the rally from 1074-1233.  That is why I look for 1292-1306 ranges (same forecast I had weeks ago) as a top between now and Christmas at best.  At any time this market could top and crack, so I’m laying it out as best as I can.

Bottom Line: Market is trying to complete a counter trend rally which so far peaked at 1292/93 and is struggling to get back up there or maybe a tad higher before the markets lose strength.  Many indicators short term are peaking as well, and everyone should be on guard.  If you’d like to be forewarned of major tops and bottoms in Gold, Silver, and the SP 500 with outside the box thinking, check us out at www.Market Trend Forecast.com for a great offer.

Our normal price is $327 per year, however, in the spirit of the holiday’s and the upcoming “Black Friday” shopping day, we are offering an early Holiday Present with a large discount of $100 off the annual price for just $227 for the first year of your TMTF subscription.

David Banister

Has The SP 500 Index Been Naughty or Nice?

At the beginning of this week I warned readers that the market was extremely overbought and that a top could be forming. While it is still unclear whether a major top has formed, it is without question that we saw a major correction on Wednesday as yields on Italian debt caused margin requirement adjustments at the London Clearing House.

I generally will not make bold predictions as today’s financial markets are so dynamic that a lot can change in a short period of time. However, Tuesday night I sent out a video to members of my service which I entitled my “European Rant.” My soapbox rant discussed where we were in the market and what my thoughts were regarding the structural issues in Europe.

Little did I know that the very next day Italian 10 year bond yields would surge calling the fiscal stability of the Eurozone back into question. My intent for the video was to give my members a better understanding of what was going on in Europe. As it turned out, the video was spot on in its timing so I could not help but share it with readers.

My current view on the S&P 500 is neutral. I am watching several key price levels on the S&P 500 Index for clarity, but so far Mr. Market has not tipped his hand. I am watching for a breakout over recent highs around the 1,290 area before I consider layering back into long positions. Consequently, I am watching the 1,230 and 1,190 areas as potential short entry points. The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below:

SPX Option Support Levels

Clearly the 1,190 – 1,200 level should offer strong support as the 50 period moving average is resting right at the 1,200 price level currently. If the 1,190 price level breaks down I think we could see a dramatic selloff transpire. On the flip side, if the recent highs around 1,290 are taken out to the upside we could see a rally that takes us back to the 2011 highs around 1,370. Right now I am going to wait patiently and let others do the heavy lifting.

The 1,257 price level on the S&P 500 Index is a major pivot that I am going to be watching closely. If the bulls can push prices above that area for two or more consecutive closes I think the bulls may have the bears on the ropes. As of the writing of this article, the SPX is currently trading around the 1,263 level. If the bulls can hold up prices into the closing bell, we could see an extension higher on Monday. The chart of SPX below illustrates the key 1,257 price level:

SPY Option Trading Setup

At the close on Tuesday I was involved in a SPY 122 Put Calendar Spread for members which capitalized on time decay (Theta) as well as lower prices in the SPY ETF. Thursday morning I took profits on the position locking in a gain of around 13% on maximum risk. Recently I have had several winning trades for members of my service, but I admittedly have been taking profits aggressively and trading in smaller size due to the wild volatility swings that are commonplace in this market.

Trading is a marathon, not a sprint and my focus is to live to play another day. Since the inception of my service, I am running at about a 70% success rate based on all trades that have been taken. I am not telling you this to boast, I am telling you this to point out that I am wrong 30% of the time. In the trading world the overall numbers look good, but if my position sizing is not appropriate the 30% could potentially blow up my account.

With that in the back of my crowded mind, I try to use smaller position sizes and lock in profits aggressively during times of widespread volatility. I take fewer trades and focus my attention on risk and money management during times of heightened volatility which has been prevalent the past few weeks.

In addition to monitoring my risk profile, I am watching the price action in two underlying assets which I believe will throw off clues about where this market may be headed. The EUR/USD currency pair has been on my screens quite a bit the past few weeks. Most of the time I monitor the U.S. Dollar Index futures as well, but recently my focus has been on the currency pair. The chart below illustrates the correlation between the Euro currency and the S&P 500 since September:

Euro Index Trading

Since the beginning of September, the moves in the S&P 500 have been very similarly correlated to the Euro currency as can be seen above. Additionally the Dow Jones Industrial Average also has very similar congruence in terms of price action when compared to the Euro.

The strength of the Euro has a profound impact on the price action of the U.S. Dollar Index. The U.S. Dollar Index soared on Wednesday and took out recent resistance. Since Wednesday, the Dollar has been retracing a large portion of the move higher. The daily chart of the Dollar Index is shown below:

USD Dollar Index Trading

It is a bit too early to tell for sure, but the Dollar could be rolling over based on austerity plans coming out of Italy and the expectation that the Eurozone is going to try to get ahead of the crisis unfolding based on the yields of Italian government debt instruments.

Last and certainly not least is the banking sector of the economy. The KBW Banking Index (BKX) is a proxy for financial institutions domestically. The KBW Banking Index is a great indicator for the future price action in the S&P 500. Stocks cannot rally if the banks do not participate with higher prices.

If stocks are selling off and the financials are holding up well many times equity indices will reverse higher. The key price level that a lot of traders are monitoring currently is the 40 area. The daily chart of the KBW Banking Index is shown below:

Banking Index XLF, FAS Trading

Similar to the key 1,257 pivot level on the S&P 500 Index, the key 40 price level on the KBW Banking Index has a similar impact on the underlying price action. If the bulls can push the BKX above the 40 price level and hold it up then a rally in stocks becomes more likely. As I write this, the BKX is trading at $39.78 / share so we are getting close to crunch time. The S&P 500 has broken above its pivot during intraday trade and now a lot of eyes are watching to see if the banks can follow through.

Ultimately investors could be looking at a Santa Claus rally or an absolutely ugly selloff in the near future. I will be monitoring the key price levels mentioned above on the S&P 500 and will wait patiently for Mr. Market to tip his hand. This is a tough market to trade and volatility is running relatively high. Headline risk coming out of Europe is seemingly constant. I would keep position sizes light and monitor risk aggressively. This is not the time to be a hero!

Subscribers of OTS have pocketed some serious return in the past few months. If you’d like to stay ahead of the market using My Low Risk Option Strategies and Trades check out OTS at Options Trading Signals.com and take advantage of my professional trading alerts and position management experience each week.

JW Jones