Iraq Seals Deal with Russia's Lukoil-led Group

A consortium grouping Russia's private oil giant Lukoil and Norway's Statoil ASA on Sunday signed a final deal to develop one of Iraq's biggest oil fields, capping an auction process key to the OPEC nation's plans to boost output and generate sorely needed reconstruction revenues. The deal on West Qurna Phase 2 field in southern Iraq is the last of the 10 fields that Iraq awarded last year during two international licensing rounds as it looked to revamp an oil sector battered by years of sanctions, neglect and, most recently, postwar violence and political bickering.

The signing Sunday also offers some much needed political capital for Iraqi officials as they head into elections in March determined to show that they are actively turning the country around following the turmoil and instability that has defined Iraqis' daily lives since the 2003 U.S. led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. "These contracts will bring in cash to Iraq, and move ahead plans to develop the infrastructure," said Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani, adding that these deals afforded Iraqis the chance to "look toward a bright future."

Although it sits atop the world's third largest proven reserves of conventional crude, Iraq currently only produces about 2.5 million barrels per day, a level still far below its pre-2003 war output. Officials say international companies like Lukoi and Statoil, which together won West Qurna Phase 2 in the December licensing round, are key to raising that output to over 12 million barrels per day in about six years.

Such production, viewed by analysts as unrealistic in that timeframe, would rival Saudi Arabia's. The kingdom, seen as the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, currently produces over 8 million barrels per day, but has an overall output capacity in excess of 12 million barrels per day.

For the 15 international firms that won development rights in the various fields, the 20 year contracts were their first chance at access to Iraq since Saddam expelled foreign firms and nationalized the sector in the 1970s. Despite the tempting spoils, the auction results were mixed, with only 10 deals struck out of the 21 oil and gas fields offered during the two licensing rounds.....Read the entire article.

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Weekly Fundamental Outlook For Crude Oil

Despite brief rebound to 74.82 after release of strong USD GDP, crude oil price dived to one month low at 72.43 amid rally in USD. The benchmark contract ended the week at 72.89, losing -2.2% on weekly basis and recorded the third consecutive weekly decline after surging to 83.95, the highest level in 15 months, in the beginning of January.

Fundamentals in the US energy market remain weak. The US Energy Department reported crude oil inventory dropped -3.89 mmb to 326.7 mmb in the week ended January 22. Cushing stocks also drew-0.69 mmb, the 5th consecutive weekly decline. We believe the main reason for the huge decline in crude stocks was the closure of the Houston Ship Channel, which serves the largest US petroleum port, shut for 2 days because of fog. It was reopened on January 21. Also, the oil-tanker spill in the Sabine Neches Waterway has led refiners to cut back production. We expect to see another draw next week as the oil spill is still impacting imports.

Both gasoline and distillate rose +1.99 mmb to 229.4 mmb and +0.36 mmb to 157.5 mmb respectively. Demand for gasoline edged slightly high on weekly basis but the level at 8.619M bpd remained below last year's level. Beware that last year's demand was very weak as it was in the midst of the worst of economic crisis. Distillate inventory built modestly compared with market exception or a draw. Imports surged +142%, on weekly basis, to 0.658M bpd, the highest level never seen since 2006. Demand dropped -2.6% to 3.725M bpd during the week. The level was still -12.5% below last year's level.

In coming few years, oil demand will be heavily relying on growth in Asian market. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), preliminary data indicated that China's total oil demand soared +16.4% yoy in November, driven by both government spending and supply disruption due to cold weather. Demand is anticipated to have increase +7.2% to 8.5M bpd in 2009, followed by a +4.3% rise to 8.8M bpd in 2010. China takes up almost 10% of world oil demand and that's why market sentiment has deteriorated dramatically after China guided yields higher, increased required reserve ratio and limited bank lending. The market worried that the growth engine will lose momentum this year.

Other than China, India is another hot spot. Total oil demand probably rose +5.4% in 2009, followed by another +3% this year. Robust oil consumption in India was driven by gasoline demand which, in turn, was due to strong car sales.....Read the entire article.



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Companies Say Alaska Gas Pipeline Could Cost $41Billion

Companies working with the state of Alaska to develop a major natural gas pipeline estimated Friday that the project would cost $20 billion to $41 billion, depending on the route. The Alaska Pipeline Project seeks to move natural gas from the harsh North Slope to market in Alaska, through Canada and to the Lower 48.

The high end of the estimate is at least a billion more than earlier thought, but project officials believe the pipeline is economically viable and could start carrying gas in about 2020. More details of the plan came in a filing Friday with federal regulators, the first step toward an "open season," when companies behind the project will court gas producers and try to secure commitments for shipping deals.

TransCanada Corp., based in Calgary, Alberta, is working with Irving, Texas based Exxon Mobil Corp. to advance the project. The state of Alaska has promised to reimburse up to $500 million of eligible costs. A rival project by Britain's BP PLC and Houston-based ConocoPhillips is also moving ahead, though its difficult for many, given the economics involved, to see more than one project going forward.

Tony Palmer, TransCanada vice president of Alaska Development, told reporters Friday that he believes the best and most effective way to bring the project forward is to form an alliance between the state, TransCanada and the North Slope's current major players, Exxon Mobil, BP and ConocoPhillips. It's during open season when shippers interested in moving gas to markets in Alaska and outside the state indicate which their preferred route.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Low Range Close Sets The Stage For Lower Open on Monday

Crude oil closed lower on Friday and spiked below support marked by December's low crossing at 72.45. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends today's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.74 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.60. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.74. First support is today's low crossing at 72.43. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday and tested the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.560 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.456. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.060. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term. If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.65. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.48. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98.

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Crude Oil Rises in New York After U.S. Economy Grows More Than Expected

Crude oil rose for the first time in four days after a government report showed that the U.S. economy expanded at the fastest pace in six years, signaling demand may rise in the world’s biggest energy market. Oil climbed as much as 1.6 percent after the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product grew by 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. It was the best performance since the third quarter of 2003. Oil has lost 6.9 percent in January, the first monthly decline since July.

“It’s a good GDP number, and frankly that’s what the market needed to see,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “If there are any doubters out there that the economy is not in recovery, this should quash that.” Crude oil for March delivery increased 71 cents, or 1 percent, to $74.35 a barrel at 10:10 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $74.82.

Oil has fallen 12 percent since reaching a 15-month high of $83.95 a barrel on Jan. 11 amid concern the U.S. government will limit trading by banks and that China will take further steps to cool its economy. China is the fastest-growing energy market.
“We might have gotten more of a bounce off this GDP number if the Chinese weren’t raising the reserve requirements for the banks and slowing lending,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago.....Read the entire article.

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Phil Flynn: You Don’t Say

Sometimes is not about what you say, it's about what you do not say. In the big Fed statement yesterday, one lone rouge inflation hawk dared to stand up and say, Hey guys, it is our job to worry about inflation. The lack of a comment about the housing market left traders wondering whether it was a glaring omission or perhaps it was an admission to the fact that the Fed is under a lot of political pressure. The Fed also changed their wording on inflation prospects from inflation would remained subdued for some time to it "likely" would remained subdued.


Ah yes, the changing face of politics where everything remains the same. Obama tried to move to the right though overall, at times he seemed a bit contradictory. Obama tried to reach out to the energy sector by embracing drill, drill, drill, nuclear power and clean coal technology as long as we at same time have a lot of money for “big green”. Oh yes you have to take care of the "big green” lobby as they spent millions to put him in office and they expect billions of green dollars back in return. And don’t forget he also said he would repeal "tax breaks” for oil companies and give tax breaks to big green. The Robin Hood energy plan: take from the rich and then run the energy companies and then give their money to the poor inefficient green energy companies.

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Chevron Rakes in $3.1Billion, Earnings Down 37%

Chevron Corporation reported earnings of $3.07 billion ($1.53 per share-diluted) for the fourth quarter 2009, compared with $4.90 billion ($2.44 per share-diluted) in the fourth quarter 2008. Earnings in the 2008 quarter included a gain of approximately $600 million on an upstream asset exchange transaction. Foreign currency effects reduced earnings in the 2009 quarter by $67 million, compared with a benefit to income of $478 million a year earlier.

Full year 2009 earnings were $10.48 billion ($5.24 per share-diluted), down 56 percent from $23.93 billion ($11.67 per share-diluted) in 2008.

Sales and other operating revenues in the fourth quarter 2009 were $48 billion, compared with $43 billion in the year ago quarter. For the full year 2009, sales and other operating revenues were $167 billion, versus $265 billion in 2008. The decrease in the twelve month period was primarily due to lower prices for crude oil, natural gas and refined products.

"Earnings decreased in 2009 as a result of lower crude oil and natural gas prices and a decline in refined product sales margins, driven by a weak global economy," said Chevron’s Chairman and CEO, John Watson. "In this challenging environment, Chevron's successes in operational reliability and cost management made valuable contributions to our bottom line. Our financial strength enabled continued investment in our excellent portfolio of capital and exploratory projects and an increase in the annual dividend on our common shares for the 22nd consecutive year.....Read the entire article.


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Here's Your Crude Oil, Natural Gas and the U.S. Dollar Numbers For Friday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.73 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Friday is 73.69

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.73
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.80

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 72.65
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.564 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Friday is 5.152

First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.465

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The U.S. Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.96 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.33
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.44
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.96



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Commodities Changed Little Despite Volatile Trading

Commodities move with great volatility but ended up with little changes Thursday. The benchmark contract for crude oil plunged to as low as 72.93 before recovering to 73.64, compare with Wednesday's close at 73.67. While heating oil price also closed almost flat gasoline slid -1.1% to 19.174 as higher than expect jobless claims data implied weaker gasoline consumption.

Initial jobless claims reduced to 470K in the week ended January 23, compared with an expected drop to 452K, from 482K a week ago. The 4 week average increased +10K to 456K while continuing claims dipped -57K to 4602K, the lowest level in a year. We believe the overall trend continues to suggest improvement in the job market, though at a pace slower than previously anticipated.

Headline of durable goods orders disappointed the market by recording only +0.3% mom in December after dropping -0.4% a month ago. However, the reading with transportations excluded showed a +0.9% increase on monthly basis. November's reading was also revised up slightly to +2.1%.

Strength in USD and JPY indicated investors gave up higher-yield investment and sought safe assets yesterday. This was probably a major reason for the softness in commodity prices. The euro slumped against the dollar and the yen as investors doubted if Greece can reduce its huge deficit without the help from outside. The 16 nationed single currency fell to a 6 month low against USD on concerns that the Greek problem will spread to other high deficit economies in Europe.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed slightly higher due to short covering on Thursday but remains below the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 73.95. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.11 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Thursday evening is 73.77

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.33
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.11

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 72.65
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Natural gas closed lower on Thursday and tested the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.589 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

Thursday evenings natural gas pivot point is 5.166

First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.504

First support is today's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.91 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.27
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.27
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.91

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Bloomberg Technical Analysis: Crude Oil Set to Rebound to $79.50 a Barrel

Oil may rise to $79.50 a barrel after holding above its 200 day moving average, according to a technical analysis by Lind-Waldock & Co. in Chicago.

Prices will probably “bounce” next week after March oil futures dropped for 10 of the past 12 sessions without sliding below support at the 200 day level, said Richard Ilczyszyn, a senior market strategist with Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global Ltd. Oil dropped $1.04, or 1.4 percent, to $73.67 yesterday, the lowest settlement since Dec. 21.

“The 200 day moving average held, which is a sign that prices are headed back up,” Ilczyszyn said in a telephone interview.

The contract will next hit resistance at the 50 day and 21 day moving averages, which were $78.33 and $79.41, respectively, yesterday, Ilczyszyn said.

“If the market closes below $72, there is going to be a big flood,” Ilczyszyn said. “There would be repercussions across the board and we would see big drops in both gasoline and heating oil.”

A settlement below $72, which last occurred on Oct. 7 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, would be a signal for the contract to test $67.99, the price on Sept. 25, he said.

For more energy stories Check Out Bloomberg.Com

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Mid-Week Charts: Gold, Silver, Oil, Nat Gas and SP500

The stock indexes have been trading very choppy making it difficult for swing/trend traders. It’s during times like this when seasoned traders rise above the herd of average traders.

If you only trade one strategy like swing trading or trend trading then you are likely finding it difficult to make money right now. On the other hand, day traders are having a blast right now as they take advantage of the powerful intraday rallies and sell offs.

I personally like swing trading but during times like this, when I know it will not work, I have to switch my strategy to day trading and focus on the 60 minute and 5 minute charts.

SP500 Index Fund – Intraday Setup
I posted this chart earlier this week and I want to be sure everyone takes something away from this chart as I believe it shows a perfect low risk setup for shorting the market, or you could buy a reverse fund which goes up as the market moves down.

At first glance this chart is noisy, but if you simply focus on the all the different color analysis separately you will notice how simple trading can be and what you should be looking for.

Red Analysis:
1. Overall market trend is down so we are looking for a short trade, signs of weakness.
2. First we see a light volume test of the previous high set earlier in the day. The low volume indicates there are not many participants in the move up and that is a weak sign.
3. Between 14:30- 15:30 we notice the price start to drift higher on very light volume. Also, the price moved up into a resistance level. This to me is a perfect setup.
4. You would sell short or buy a reverse index fund at this point hoping for the market to start selling. You could also wait until it started to drop before taking a position but when a chart looks this good I try to get in at the highest price possible.

Blue Analysis:
1. The price starts to drop forming several small bear flags going into 14:30 before bouncing. Also note the volume began to rise as more selling was happening. This tells us that trading activity is predominately selling and that we should also focus on shorting when the time is right.
2. Again, the price starts to drop forming several small bear flags going from 15:00 – 15:45 before bouncing. Also note the volume began to rise as more sellers took part in this short term trend.

Black Analysis:
1. This shows more or less the resistance level, area to short the index and the nice trend down.



Gold GLD ETF Trading
Gold has been under selling pressure since early December. That powerful drop and the chart pattern it has formed will generally resolves itself after an ABC retrace pattern. I have drawn this on the chart which is what I think will happen in the near term. This daily chart of GLD ETF has a small 4 day bear flag and bearish reversal candle which is pointing to lower prices in the near term.



Silver SLV ETF Trading
Silver has a funky looking chart. It has formed a large megaphone pattern and possible head & shoulders pattern. Both are bearish and if we use the Head & Shoulders to calculate where silver could end up trading if it continues to break down, then $14.00 would be a level to look for a bounce.



Natural Gas UNG Fund
The natural gas fund UNG has been in a down trend for over a year and the recent drop looks to be the start of another sell off. This could possibly form a reverse head & shoulders pattern with this drop moving UNG down to the $8.75 – $9.00 area. We will have to wait and watch things unfold for now.



Crude Oil USO Fund
USO looks to be trading at support. I am inclined to patiently wait another session before possibly taking a position.



Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, I feel the overall market could bounce including stocks and possibly commodities, but the selling is not over yet in my opinion. The drop we have seen in the past week is the half way mark. So this bounce would be the starting of an ABC retrace for stock indexes. During choppy times I like to be sitting in cash and or day trading for short term profits.

Precious metals do look oversold and ready for a small bounce or sideways move; I do think they will head lower. Too many traders are still holding on to their gold positions and until a large number of them get scared out of their positions, we will not see gold rocket higher.

Natural gas looks like it’s about to head much lower this week while oil looks ready for a solid bounce off support.

We continue to wait for new low risk setups as different investment scenarios unfold.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Crude oil extended fall from 83.95 to as low as 72.65 before recovering. Downside momentum is a bit unconvincing with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line. Nevertheless, further decline is still in favor as long as 75.42 minor resistance holds. Next target will be a retest of 68.59 support. On the upside, above 75.42 will indicate that a short term bottom is possibly formed and should bring strong recovery then.

In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. On the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

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Crude Oil Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers For Thursday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering and is trading above the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 73.95. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.36 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Thursdays pivot point for crude oil is 73.80

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.36
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.13

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 72.65
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.591 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 5.282

First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.507

First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.130
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The U.S. Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.90 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.26
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.26
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.90

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and U.S Dollar Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and below the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 73.95. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday evening is 73.83

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.94
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.40

First support is today's low crossing at 72.65
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday and below trading range support crossing at 5.327. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends today's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.622 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday evening is 5.280

First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.559

First support is today's low crossing at 5.182
Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.87 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.01
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.05
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.87

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Crude Oil Falls to a Five Week Low in New York as Gasoline Supplies Rise

Crude oil and gasoline fell to five week lows after a U.S. government report showed inventories of the motor fuel rose to a 22 month high. Oil dropped as much as 2.8 percent after the Energy Department said that gasoline supplies climbed 1.99 million barrels to 229.4 million last week, the highest level since March 2008. Oil stockpiles tumbled amid expectations that they would increase.

“The crude number was certainly supportive for prices, but the product numbers were negative,” said Tom Bentz, senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “We headed for some new lows and the selling dried up.” Crude oil for March delivery fell $1.45, or 1.9 percent, to $73.26 a barrel at 1:38 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil touched $72.65, the lowest level since Dec. 21.

Oil supplies dropped 3.89 million barrels, or 1.2 percent, to 326.7 million, the department said. They were forecast to rise 1.5 million barrels in the Bloomberg survey, according to the median estimate of 19 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline stockpiles were estimated to increase 900,000 barrels.

“The only bullish number in today’s report was crude oil, and that was apparently due to the closure of the Houston Ship Channel,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. The Houston Ship Channel, which serves the largest U.S. petroleum port, reopened Jan. 21 after shutting two days earlier because of fog.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 73.95. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.07 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point for crude oil is 74.64

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.07
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.47

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 73.82
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, some more sideway trading could be seen in crude oil and another recovery might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 76.52). Nevertheless, fall fro 83.95 is still in favor to continue as long as 79.16 resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 will target a retest on 68.59 support. However, note that break of 79.16 will indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.

In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. On the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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New video: Are These Markets in Trouble?

The recent run up in the markets and the fact that the markets have exceeded some key Fibonacci retracement levels has lured many investors into believing that this will be a "V" shaped recovery this time around.

For months now we have voiced our concerns that all the major indexes are in the "thin air". This new short video explores that and looks at a key Japanese candlestick formation that could really make a difference and be the first clue in the demise of the Dow.

We also want to share with you a specific number to look for in February. Should this level be broken, then it will signal a major reversal to the downside for the Dow.

Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to sign up or register to watch them. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think.


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Oil Falls as Dollar Strengthens Versus Euro, Analysts Forecast Supply Gain

Crude oil fell to a five week low as the dollar strengthened against the euro, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil dropped as much as 1.9 percent as the U.S. currency gained against its major counterparts on speculation China will take further steps to cool its economy, discouraging demand for higher yielding assets. A U.S. Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show oil supplies rose last week, based on a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.

“It’s a further erosion of prices exacerbated somewhat by a stronger dollar today,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas based energy consultant. “If we see another big build in crude tomorrow, I think you’ll just see the market move lower.”

Crude oil for March delivery dropped 63 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $74.63 a barrel at 10:15 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $73.82 a barrel, the lowest since Dec. 22. Futures fell 8.8 percent in the two weeks through yesterday. The U.S. currency strengthened 0.6 percent to $1.4062 per euro as of 9:46 a.m. New York time, from $1.4151 yesterday.

Oil stockpiles probably climbed 1.58 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 22 from 330.6 million the prior week, according to the median of 18 analyst estimates in the survey of analysts. Oil inventories were 6.5 percent above the five year average in the week ended Jan. 15. Refining rates, already at their lowest outside the Atlantic hurricane season since at least 1989, probably fell 0.1 percentage point, according to the Bloomberg survey.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Taking a Fall and Threatens to Take The Markets Along, Here's Your Numbers

Crude oil was lower overnight and is poised to extend last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.69 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday, our line in the sand is 74.91

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.69
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.69

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 74.01
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of the oil ETF USO

Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends last Friday's rally, the January's high crossing at 6.027 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.604 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Tuesday's pivot point for natural gas is 5.749

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.804
Second resistance is December's high crossing at 6.027

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.604
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.327

Just click here for a FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight hinting that the correction off last week's high might be ending. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.84 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 79.00
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.87
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.84

Just click here for a FREE trend analysis of the U.S. Dollar ETF UUP


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

While downside momentum is diminsihing a bit, intraday bias is still on the downside. Crude oil's fall from 83.95 is expected to continue and sustained d break of 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 will target a rest on 68.59 support. On the upside, above 76.68 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 79.16 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk will remain on the downside.

In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. ON the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Phil Flynn: China Banks and Bubbles

If the Chinese banks have problems and dramatically slow lending, can the oil bull market continue? How about the carry trade? Concerns are mounting around the banks, raising the question as to whether the China commodity consuming gravy train will continue at the previous rapid pace. Overnight these concerns are coming to the forefront as Chinas fourth largest is looking to raise 40 billion yuan or the equivalent of $5.86 billion dollars to shore up its capital base and maintain its lending capacity.

Last week I said that in the beginning of the year many Chinese lending institutions went on a massive lending spree, seemingly lending money to anything that moved. It is possible that these intuitions were either driven by greed or the realization that they knew that soon the Chinese government would raise rates and stop the lending party.Bloomberg News reported that the Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that loans in China were “relatively high”.

He said that some banks were asked to stop lending because they failed to meet reserve requirements. Obviously the failure to meet these requirements and the Chinese government dramatically moving to reign in credit, means that many lending institutions in China are trying to lend every penny they have available to them. We'll see if there is a global double dip in the economy. It is possible that these intuitions could have some problems.

Now the China bank 6 year bond issuance is subject to the approval of bond holders but raise the larger issue how the markets are going to handle the removal of stimulus. Or what is more, how will the world handle a China whose growth may not be all it is cracked up to be.

Long term we still feel oil is on a long term journey near $40 a barrel. Today March crude oil has strong support near the 7400 handle with resistance near 7700. We should see some swings this week ahead of the Fed meeting.

Get ready to sign up for trading from the Trade strategist by calling Phil at 800-935-6487 or by emailing me at pflynn@pfgbest.com. And also check me out each day on the Fox Business Network.


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Crude Oil Closes Higher on Short Covering, Signals Remain Bearish

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.89 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Monday evening's daily pivot point is 74.89, weekly pivot is 76.01

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.53
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.89

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 74.01
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

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Are Commodities and the Dow Index Dead?

It was a heart pounding week on Wall Street as traders and investors locked in profits during 2010’s first round of earnings season. While it is normal to see selling of shares after good news hits the market, last weeks melt down was over exaggerated and for good reasons.

In short, we expected good earnings and that is why the markets have been crawling higher the past couple months (buy on rumor, sell on news). But what made last weeks sell off so strong was the fact the market was way overbought on the short term time frame and looking ready for a correction already. So we saw twice the selling pressure crammed into one week.

Looking back at a 12 year chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average we can see the market is now trading at a major resistance level. There are two scenarios the market will likely follow in the coming 12 months. And it could take a year for each of these scenarios to unfold.

Scenario #1 – The market could top then start heading lower to test the 2009 March low. I don’t want this but it could still happen. Topping is a process. Unlike most bottoms which happen very quickly, tops tend to drag out much longer. In this case I figure we are looking at 4-12 month time frame for the market to truly roll over and confirm that we are in a major bear market again.

Scenario #2 – If the market holds up relatively well and forms a bull flag then we can expect to see higher prices in the future. If this happens it will take 4-12 months to unfold also.

Both scenarios have characteristics associated with them, so as the market progresses I will update on the market internals which will help tell us if the underlying market is holding up well or deteriorating. Only time will tell and we will play it one candle at a time.



Gold Stocks – Rockets or Rocks?

The gold stock index closed below its support trend line which held up for over a year. This is not a good sign for gold or gold stocks but there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Simple technical analysis is telling us to be cautious at these price levels. If we zoom way out on the charts the current price level and chart patterns on these charts scare me. The gold stock/Gold ratio chart is trading under resistance and the HUI (gold stock index) is trading near the 2008 high. What I do not like is the technical breakdown on the HUI monthly chart. You can see the trend line break on the chart with my small zoomed in picture.

The good news is that everything looks to be extremely over sold on the 60 minute charts so I am expecting a bounce across the entire market for a 1-5 day dead cat bounce. Friday we did see gold stocks move up strong off their lows out performing the price of gold. This is positive for gold and stocks. Depending on how that unfolds we could take a short term momentum play to profit from a possible leg lower.



Precious Metals ETF Daily Charts – Gold & Silver
Gold and silver lost some shine last week as they plunged towards their next support level. A bounce is expected but then I feel we are heading lower and this will likely shake out the majority of traders before starting another rally higher.



Energy Fund Trading – USO & UNG



Commodity and Stock Market Index Trading Conclusion:
This month looks and feels like last Jan – March, but reversed. The market is now getting choppy as the bulls and bears fight for direction making is difficult to swing trade. Times like these are best for intraday traders, not swing traders. Trading tops is actually much more difficult than trading a bottoming market in my opinion so I will be picky with trade setups. My number one goal is to preserve capital and avoid choppy market conditions as part of managing risk.

Final trading thoughts, I look for the broad market to get a possible bounce this week, but I feel lower prices are still to come. The USO oil fund looks prime for the picking and that could be our next trade.

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Crude Oil Pares Losses in New York as Equities Recover, Dollar Weakens

Crude oil traded little changed in New York as the declining dollar tempered selling driven by concerns that China will raise interest rates. Oil recovered from a near one month low as equity markets rose and the weaker U.S. currency heightened the appeal of dollar priced assets for hedging inflation. OPEC nations must improve their compliance with the group’s output quotas to prevent further pressure on oil prices, Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corp., said yesterday.

“With OPEC ready to act if there’s further weakening, I think prices may be nearing a bottom,” said Christopher Bellew, senior broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. in London. “Weakness in the stock markets and the prospects of monetary tightening in China helped trigger the exit of some speculative money.” Crude for March delivery was at $74.82 a barrel, up 28 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:35 a.m. in London. Earlier the contract fell as much as 43 cents to $74.11. Futures dropped 2 percent to $74.54 on Jan. 22, the lowest settlement since Dec. 22.

Brent oil for March settlement climbed as much as 67 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $73.50 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $73.36 a barrel, up 53 cents, at 11:35 a.m., having fallen 2.4 percent to $72.83 on Jan. 22. U.S. stock index futures gained on signs Ben S. Bernanke will be confirmed as Federal Reserve chairman for a second term. The dollar declined 0.2 percent to $1.4189 per euro as of 11:07 a.m. in London.

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Crude Oil Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers For Monday Morning

Crude oil was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.49 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Monday's pivot point for crude oil is 75.02

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.49
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.87

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 74.01
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends last Friday's rally, the January's high crossing at 6.027 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.594 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 5.779

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.804
Second resistance is December's high crossing at 6.027

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.594
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.327

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The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.71 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 79.00
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.80
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.71

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New Video: Where Should YOU be in the S&P 500?

Does this week's negative action in the markets spell a fantastic buying opportunity? Is it time to short this market or just wait quietly on the sidelines? What exactly does our Fibonacci levels tell us?

In today’s short video we take a fresh look the S&P 500 and what we think it is going to do in 2010. We will also be looking at an important “Trade Triangle” that has just flashed an important signal for this index.

So Just Click Here to watch the new video and as always our educational videos are free to watch, and there’s no need to register. Enjoy the video and please feel free to leave a comment.

Good trading,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO
The Crude Oil Trader

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Trend TV Video - Applications of Candlestick Charting

Are you incorporating candlestick charting into your trading plans? Find out why this tool has become so popular.

In this complimentary video, “Advanced Applications of Candlestick Charting,” authors, software programmers, and co-founders of the International Pacific Trading Company, Gary Wagner & Brad Matheny will walk you through:

-History of candlestick charting
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You’ll watch and listen as Wagner explains the importance of using this strategy. He says, in part, “Candlestick patterns are a mathematical formula which illustrate the psychological market sentiment. In other words, as a market reverses, or a market is moving in an up trend, there are certain traits that can be distilled in terms of mathematical formulas that will reveal some very important information.”

This 100 minute complimentary video can be found on Trend TV. You don’t have to worry about watching the whole video at once. After you have a password, you can revisit anytime to watch the rest of a video, review a video, or watch other videos on Trend TV.

Just click here to watch "Applications of Candlestick Charting".

Good Trading,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader

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