Crude Oil Bulls and Bears Appear To Be On Level Playing Field

May crude oil closed down $2.17 at $50.07 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Trading has turned choppy. The key "outside markets" were mixed for crude during the day, as the U.S. dollar was sharply lower but equities prices were also weaker. Bulls and bears are still on a level near term technical playing field amid choppy trading conditions.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 135 points at 84.72 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls faded badly today. Bears have regained the slight near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today and nearer their session highs after being under solid pressure in the early going. The bulls still have some upside near term technical momentum, but need to show more power soon. There are early clues that major market lows are in place.

IEA Cuts Demand Forecast to Five Year Low, Sends Crude Oil Lower

"Crude Oil Falls After IEA Cuts Demand Forecast to Five Year Low"

Crude oil fell the most in two weeks after an International Energy Agency report showed that 2009 demand may slump to the lowest level in five years as factories shut and car sales tumble amid a global recession.

Consumption will decline 2.4 million barrels a day this year, about the same amount that Iraq produces, to 83.4 million barrels a day, according to the IEA report on April 10. U.S. crude oil supplies are at their highest since July 1993, the Energy Department said on April 8....Complete Story

Crude Oil Opens Lower Monday Morning

May crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally.

Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May extends last Thursday's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 51.50.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

Crude oil appears to be range bound at this point in the 47 to 54 area. Most traders should be looking to go long on all dips into the 47 to 48 area while less conservative traders may also want to short crude in the 53 to 54 area.

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The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 7.50 points. at 845.10 as of 5:53 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 808.32 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Our SP 500 pivot point, our line in the sand is 843.50. If we break below 843 in the regular trading session we will go short for our SP day trade.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 854.50.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 822.91.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 808.32.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 86.61 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

China May Sign $10 Billion Oil Deal With Kazakhstan

"China, Kazakhstan May Sign $10 Billion Accord for Oil"
China, the world’s second biggest energy consumer, may agree next week on lending $10 billion to Kazakhstan in return for the right to take a stake in an oil producer in the Central Asian country.

China National Petroleum Corp. plans to buy a minority holding in AO Mangistaumunaigas from state-run KazMunaiGaz National Co., a China National official said yesterday. The two nations may sign an accord on April 15 when Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev visits Beijing, the official said, declining to be identified because of internal rules....Complete Story

This Week's Chart For Crude Oil

Chevron Production Rises, IEA Forcast Lowest In Five Years

"IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast to Lowest in Five Years"
The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to decline by 2.4 million barrels a day this year, about the same amount that Iraq produces, as the economic slump reduces consumption to the lowest since 2004. The adviser to 28 nations cut its 2009 forecast....Complete Story

"Petrovietnam Shortlisted to Negotiate Iraq Oil Drilling Contracts"
The National Oil and Gas Group (PetroVietnam) has been short-listed to negotiate on oil drilling contracts at 11 petroleum fields in Iraq, the country's Ministry of Oil said. The list of nine investors was created from 38 firms joining the tender held on December 31, 2008, including....Complete Story

"Chevron Production Rises, Halting Two Year Decline"
Chevron Corp., the second largest U.S. oil company, said production headed for a quarterly gain for the first time since 2006 as new platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Africa began operation. Chevron pumped the equivalent of 2.645 million barrels....Complete Story

"Saudi To Deepen May Oil Supply Cuts To 2 Asia Buyers"
Saudi Arabia will unexpectedly cut oil supplies to some major Asian refiners next month, suggesting the world's top exporter may be more concerned than some of its OPEC peers about swelling crude inventories....Complete Story

May crude oil closed up $2.65 at $52.03 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today. The key "outside markets" were mixed for crude during the day, as the U.S. dollar was stronger and equities prices were also stronger. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading conditions.

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher today as the indexes closed at bullish weekly high closes and hit multi-week highs. The bulls today did gain fresh upside near term technical momentum. There are now early clues that major market lows are in place.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 33 points at 86.04 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a bullish weekly high close. Bulls have regained the slight near-term technical advantage.

Oil Chart Signals A Bounce Needed For Rally, Oil Jumps Up More Than $2 Dollars

"Oil Rises More Than $2 as Equity Gains Signal Demand May Climb"
Crude oil rose more than $2 a barrel as equities gained, signaling that some investors expect economies to stabilize, bolstering energy demand. Oil climbed as much as 6.2 percent after stocks increased on better than estimated earnings at Wells Fargo & Co. and speculation banks will pass government stress tests....Complete Story

"Alaska Oil Regulators Deny Exxon Petition"
The state of Alaska has denied a petition from Exxon Mobil seeking permission from regulators to form a new oil and gas unit at Point Thomson. Exxon this week asked the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to unite the leases of different companies within the Point Thomson oil and gas field....Complete Story

"Oil Chart Signals a Bounce Needed for Rally: Technical Analysis"
Crude oil futures for May delivery are testing key support levels and an “immediate bounce” is needed for the contract to return to recent highs, according to technical analysis by Newedge Group. If prices break through support at the $47.50 to $48, a barrel level, the contract....Complete Story

"Mexico, U.S. Energy Ministers Meet on Cross-Border Oil Fields"
Mexican Secretary of Energy Georgina Kessel Martinez and her U.S. counterpart Steven Chu met on cross-border oil fields and renewable energy, said a statement of the Mexican government. The two ministers met during Kessel's visit to the United States.
The statement said that Kessel....Complete Story

Crude Oil Enjoys The Equities Rally, Still Below 20 Day Moving Average

May crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.85.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.85.
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's rally, last week's high crossing at 86.61 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 86.13.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's upside reversal. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and remain bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 802.59 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 802.59.
Second support is last week's low crossing at 775.70.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 5.80 points. at 828.40 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Crude Oil Closes Higher On Short Covering and Rally In Stocks

May crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is today's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

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The June Dollar closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53 signaling that a short term low has been posted. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June resumes last week's decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 86.13.
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 817.04 as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 798.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 867.50.

First support is today's low crossing at 802.60.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 798.30.