Is Gold on the Verge of a Bottom - See for Yourself

The recent downward price swing in Gold has kept Goldbugs frothing at what they believe is a very unusual and unexplained price function in the face of so much uncertainty throughout the globe. With Turkey, Russia, China and many others experiencing massive economic and currency crisis events, Gold has actually been creeping lower as the U.S. Dollar strengthens. It is almost like a “Twilight Zone” episode for Gold Bulls.

The setup for a gold rally has been in place for over a decade. Much like in 2006 through 2008, the current price and volatility of Gold is simply mundane. For the past two years, Gold has rotated between $1190 and $1360 – within a $180 range. Certainly, Gold traders were able to find some profits within this range, but no breakout trends have been established since early 2016 when the price of Gold changed from Bearish to Bullish and a 31% rally took place driving prices $328.80 higher from the lows.

Our team of researchers, at The Technical Traders, believe something very interesting may be taking place in Gold right now – almost like a “Deja Vu” of the past. A double setup appears to have taken place recently and we believe the bottom may have already formed in Gold for now.

In early 2016 through November 2016 where price rallied 31% then retraced nearly 75% to form the second leg higher. This deep retracement of price was indicative of a wide price rotation before another leg higher pushed back up to near the all time highs.

From 2017 until now the Gold chart shows another 75% price retracement from recent highs once again. This second 75% retracement could be a massive bottom formation setting up in Gold and could be a huge “wash out” low price. We believe this unique retracement is indicative of a massive price breakout over the next year or so as the price of gold is forming what Stan Weinstein calls a Stage 1 Accumulation.

Now, let’s zoom in and take a look at the weekly chart and our Adaptive Dynamic Learning model, the predictive analysis suggests that Gold prices should begin to bottom within the next week or two and begin to climb much higher over the next 3 to 10+ weeks.

This pattern consists of 12 unique instances of data and suggests that the future upswing will start rather mild for the first 2 weeks, then begin to accelerate as time progresses. It appears we have a strong potential to see prices above $1400 within the next 5 - 8 weeks or so and you look at the previous chart above, what is the $1400 level? You got it! Resistance, and if price breaks out above $1400 a new bull market would be triggered!

As many of you are aware, Gold is often a move to safety when the global economy begins to show signs of chaos or weakness. We believe the move in the U.S. Dollar will stall and possibly correct as this move takes place. If Gold were to rally while the U.S. Dollar continued to strengthen, you can clearly assume that a flight to safety is taking place and it includes a massive capital migration toward U.S. equities and GOLD. If the rally in gold is seen while the U.S. Dollar weakens or stalls, then we are seeing a move to safety while the currency markets address regional and global currency market issues.

Either way, we expect Gold to begin a new rally higher off of this 75% retracement level to complete the Pennant formation that is currently set up for a Wave 5 upside price expansion. Some of this technical analysis may be over your head as it can be confusing, but you should get the gist of things which is that precious metals should find a bottom and there is the potential that a massive bull market could be on the horizon if price rallies quickly. Be prepared for this move because the Gold shorts will likely be forced to cover their positions within the next few weeks as this move begins to accelerate higher.

Visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you find these types of swings in the major markets. We alert our clients well in advance of these swings and deliver daily video content to all of our members before the market opens each day. Our objective is to make you a better trader and to help you find successful setups to create greater success. Visit our website to learn how we can help you become a better trader today.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

U.S. Markets Moving Higher Until November 2018 - Part I

Our trading partners at The Technical Traders Ltd. have been laboring over the recent market moves attempting to identify if and when the market may be likely to turn lower or contract. They’ve been pouring over all types of various data from numerous sources and have concluded the following is the most likely outcome for when the US stock markets may find a reason to pause of contract.

As you read this research post, please allow us a brief introduction of the facts that supported our research.

                              Source: Palisade Research

First, our research team started this investigative work after watching the Buffet Indicator climb from the 2015-16 rotation levels to new highs and achieve some recent news events. This indicator, being one of Warren Buffett’s favorite tools for understanding market valuations in comparison to debt levels provides some interesting components for our team to study. Yet, we believed this indicator chart lacked something relating to the global markets and the use of the debt capital to spur future global economic activity.

Therefore, our team went off in search of something that could help us rationalize these high Buffet Indicator levels in true relation to the global markets and in relation to the capital shift that we believe is currently taking place throughout the planet. The first component of our assumption about the global markets is that capital is rushing away from riskier markets and towards more stable markets. The second component of our assumption is that national debt obligations are being re-evaluated based on perceived risks and contagion issues throughout the globe. The last component of our assumption is that the new US President is shaking up quite a bit of the old constructs throughout the globe and that the processes and policies put in place by President Trump are creating a very dynamic global capital market environment at the moment.

When you consider these three components and their combined results on the global capital markets, we have to understand that there is a very strong possibility that the largest GDP producing countries on the planet, and their banking, institutional and investor classes, are all operating within some aspect of these three components. This means there is a potential for at least $7 to $15 Trillion (10~20% of total global GDP) US Dollars that are actively sourcing and seeking secure returns while avoiding risks and debt contagion. This is a massive capital shift that is taking place currently – likely the largest the planet has ever seen.

As the Buffet Indicator is showing, the US stock market is nearing or passing all-time highs in valuation in relation to US debt levels. Yet, how does the Buffet Indicator correlate the global capital shift that is taking place and equate these dynamics into fair value. The US market, being the likely target of this massive capital shift, is a fair source for valuations comparisons, but we are experiencing a capital shift that has never before been seen at the levels we are currently experiencing. Sure, there have been shifts of capital before – but not at the $10 to 20 trillion USD level.

If we compare the Buffet Indicator to this Fred Global Stock Market Capitalization to GDP chart, some interesting facts begin to take shape. First, the peaks in 1974, 1999, 2008 and 2018 on the Buffet Indicator are not as evident on this chart. The 1974 peak is relatively nonexistent. The 1999 peak is a much more muted (28%) peak than on the Buffet Indicator chart and the 2008 and 2018 peaks are relatively correlated to the Buffet Indicator chart. One should be asking the question, “why are the two most recent peaks more correlated than previous peaks on this global capitalization to GDP chart?”. Our answer to that question is that after the 1999~2000 US market peak, the globe entered into a much more cooperative economic phase with the EU, China, South America and many other nations operating as global peers vs. global competitors. It was after this time that the capital markets began to “sync” in some form to the central banks policies and the unification processes that were taking place throughout the globe.

We should, therefore, assume that any global market contagion or crisis will likely take place in some measured form throughout nearly all global markets when it happens. Additionally, as regional debt or capital market crisis events occur in certain nations, capital that was deployed in these nations or capital markets will likely rush to new, safer environments for periods of time. Capital is always hunting for the safest and most secure returns while attempting to avoid risk and devaluation.

The central bank policies of the past two decades have allowed a massive increase in the available capital throughout the globe. Global GDP has risen from $33.57 Trillion in 2000 to $80.68 Trillion today – a whopping 140% increase in only 18 years. Historically, global GDP has risen by approximately these levels every 15~20 year for the past 50+ years. This is likely the result of the US moving away from the Gold standard and foreign nations following along with fiat currency central banks since after the 1960s-70s.

This tells us that the peak in 2000 on this global capital market to GDP chart resulted in a moderately isolated capital market peak that was uniquely available within the US and major economies – not globally. The 2008 peak represented a more globally equal capital market peak. This means the majority of the global capital market experienced capital appreciation. The same thing is happening right now – the global markets are experiencing an overall capital market appreciation that is a result of the past 20+ years of central bank policies and economic recovery efforts.

Stay Tuned for PART II Next with Charts and Trading Analysis!

53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Technical Analysis and Rates Unchanged – Here We Go

The U.S. Federal Reserve is one of the only central banks to attempt to raise rates consistently over the past few years, has possibly learned a very valuable lesson – no good comes from raising rates to the point of causing another market collapse. The news that the US Fed will leave interest rates where they are, temporarily, is good news for a number of reasons.

First, this allows the markets to shake out weaker players and weaker components of the corporate world. Where corporate debt levels are concerned, interest rates are tied to debt repayment liabilities and refinancing costs. Firms that are unable to manage at current interest rates certainly would not be happy about rising rates. This allows these corporations to either struggle to resolve their debt issues or collapse under the weight of their own debt. This will also play out in the foreign markets as well.

Second, it allows the housing market and private debt markets to shake out some of the “at risk” consumers. We authored an article a few months ago about how foreclosures and pre-foreclosures were starting to increase in nearly all markets. At the time, many people in the real estate field shrugged off these increases as par for the course. With the decreasing foreign investment in real estate and the increasing pressures on the local consumer markets, we saw a dramatic slowdown in housing starts and sales activities recently. This is because the demand side of the market is falling much faster than the supply capacity.

The uncertainty in the foreign markets, global central banks, and foreign investments have prompted many people to pull out of the local markets – even the hot markets. The at-risk consumers that were trying to sell near this top suddenly found the buyers were just not there or ready to make the commitment. This put the at-risk consumers in a difficult position as they could not flip their houses as easily as they could 6 months ago.

Yet, in the global equity markets, investors can sell or buy with much faster transaction times – at the click of a mouse button in most cases. This allows equity investors to pull capital away from risky investments and migrate that capital into more secure investments in a matter of minutes or hours – not weeks or months. And that is exactly what has been happening over the past 30+ days in the global markets.

Capital is repositioning for the next phase of this market; where the US economy is strong, housing continues to weaken and at-risk consumers continue to feel the pressures of the US Fed interest rate policies. Where foreign consumers attempt to deal with their own version of “central bank hell” and asset devaluations in an attempt to find more secure investment vehicles for their capital. Money market funds, investment funds and, of course, the US value/blue-chip equities are looking very promising right about now.

This Daily SPY chart shows our recent ADLC indicator (price cycle turning points) and our oversold extreme price levels shaded with lime green. When these two things align the market tends to rally for 1-3 days with strong momentum. During pre-market last week, we told our followers that the big gap lower in price was going to be bought and price should rally for 2-3 days, which is exactly what has unfolded thus far.

Global capital will continue to rush into the US markets as long as the US Fed does not do anything to derail things. Our research team believes the US Fed may even decrease the interest rates by 0.25% before the end of the year depending on how much pressure is placed on the economy by these “at risk” participants.

We will continue to keep you updated as to our findings and we want to urge you to visit The Technical Traders Free Market Research to read all of our most recent research posts. You really owe it to yourself to understand what is happening in the global markets right now and how we have continued to stay 30-60 days ahead of these moves for our valued members. There are so many opportunities setting up in the markets for traders it is almost hard to understand the dynamics at play right now. If you want a dedicated team of researchers and traders to help you navigate these markets, then visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can provide you with even more detailed daily research and support.

Chris Vermeulen

How the Fall in Crude Oil Price is Affecting the Gold Market

Gold prices started to fall following a stronger dollar and falling oil prices. The precious yellow metal lost more than 10% since its peak of $1,365.23 (C$1791.82) in April. Apart from falling oil prices, higher US interest rates are contributing to gold’s decline.

“In this environment where we also see oil prices falling, and so less concern from investors about rising inflation, that’s another negative for the gold price,” said Senior Analyst at Danske Bank in Copenhagen Jens Pedersen. “There are still some concerns about the geopolitical environment…so if these stories start to flare up again, it could lead investors back into gold.”

Gold and oil have a high correlation, meaning both commodities move together in the same direction. A strong dollar is an indicator that gold and oil prices will fall since both assets have an indirect correlation with the greenback.

Brent crude oil hit a 3 month low in July after a rise in US crude inventories recorded an increase in global supply and weak global demand. Crude oil fell by $0.49 (C$0.64) in an intraday low of $93.64 (C$0.64) a barrel — its lowest since April 17.

In response, gold also traded lower. The precious metal hit a 6 month low as the US dollar moved higher. Fears of an escalating trade war between the US and China did very little to support the increasing prices of gold. Based on FXCM’s gold prices, an ounce of gold only costs around $1,218 (C$1,598) – a sharp slide considering the prices of the precious metal in June, which was at $1,277 (C$1,676).

As for oil, the energy market recorded a slight price increase for crude as the US asked its trade partners to stop importing oil from Iran. The intraday trading for oil remained positive for MCX Gold but the upside is predicted to be limited to its current key resistance levels.

Higher interest rates tend to push the dollar up and make dollar denominated gold more expensive for investors. Gold is often seen as a safe haven asset, which is why it does not move in the same direction with the USD. A weakness in oil demand means that investors are putting more of their money in the dollar. High-interest rates make dollar investments attractive, weakening the demand in global commodities such as oil and gold.

“With the dollar on a solid footing, gold prices should stay pressured lower for the foreseeable future,” said Oanda’s Asia/Pacific Trade Chief Stephen Innes. “Gold has wholly lost its appeal in this enduringly bullish equity and dollar environment.”

Oil and gold’s correlation was discovered as early as 1983. Based on Tableu’s infographic, there have been 5 key moments in both commodities’ relationship that shows its direct correlation. In August 2011, gold skyrocketed to record highs and had peaked to $1,814 (C$2,380) due to a weak dollar and economic uncertainty. In the mid-2000s, the combination of declining production and increasing demand in Asia sent the prices of gold up. However, the 2008 global financial crisis caused a bubble-bursting trend, and both commodities’ prices declined by 78.1% from July to December.

As the US trade war with China, Canada, and Europe shows no sign of abating in the near future, investors will be looking to see if this does eventually have a positive impact on the price of gold and crude oil.

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Bitcoin Rallies to Upper Channel - What Next?

Even we were concerned with Bitcoin briefly traded below $6k in late June. Yet, the recent upside price move was incredibly quick and the price of Bitcoin ran right up to our upper price channel. We believe this will become a new price peak over the next few days/weeks where the price of Bitcoin should continue to drop from these levels near $7500. We know there are many Bitcoin investors that want to hear us state that it should continue to push higher, but there are other factors at play here that may limit this movement.

The price channels that are currently constraining the price of Bitcoin originate back in February and March of 2018. The low and high price rotation within these months start the points of interest for our research team. From these points, we have continued to identify key price levels that appear to contain breakouts.

You can see from the chart below, the upper BLUE channel line is our downward sloping price channel that is acting like an upper ceiling for the price. Additionally, you can see our “drawn Red and Green arrows” showing what we believed Bitcoin would potentially do over the next few months. We believed that Bitcoin, as it traded lower, towards $6k, may find support and rally (based on our time/price cycles) towards a peak near July 16 (showing as the end of the Green Arrow). From this point, we believe the price of Bitcoin will trail off, heading lower, with the intent to retest channel support near $5700 if the price cannot break through and hold above the blue upper channel.

This longer term daily Bitcoin chart shows a larger picture of our analysis work. You can clearly see the channels that are constraining price at the moment – the BLUE support channel and the RED resistance channel. The most recent lows established a new lower price point for the Blue channel – which indicated a downward sloping pennant formation is in place.

There are two things we want to caution Bitcoin investors and traders about. First, the rotation that we are expecting to complete this pennant formation could happen very quickly within a fairly tight range ($7400 to $5700). For traders, this is an excellent range for some quick profits. For investors, this could create some stress as price rotates.

Second, by our estimates, at least one more low price rotation is required before any real breakout will be attempted. If our analysis is correct, this current price peak will end with prices falling back below $6k, forming another “lower bottom” and rallying again to near the upper price channel (near $6700 or so) before trailing off for the last time – nearing the apex of the pennant formation. We believe the current outcome of this price setup will be a low price breakout, forming a potential wave 5 that should end near or below $5500. After that bottom is reached, we should be looking for a new bottom formation setting up a new advancement leg higher.

Could our analysis change, of course, it could depending on what price action shows us. Right now, this pennant formation and the wave counts are driving our analysis. The Time/price cycle analysis helps us to determine when and where price target/peaks/troughs may happen, but they are not set in stone. If you are a trader and are long Bitcoin, this may be the highest price you will see over the next few months.

 If you are an investor and think this is the start of a bigger move higher – we don’t agree with you. We believe we are very close to the final leg lower that should form the new price bottom – at least for a while. Once this bottom forms, we’ll be able to provide a better understanding of what we believe will happen in the future. For right now, our target low for the bottom is $4400 on or near August 20, 2018. We’ll see how it plays out.

We keep a close eye using our proprietary ADL Fibonacci and ADL Cycle forecasting systems using the Bitcoin investment trust which trades like a stock/ETF, the symbol is: GBTC.

If you want to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these global market moves and help you plan for and execute greater trades, please visit The Technical Traders site to learn how we assist you. We offer comprehensive research, analysis, daily video, trading signals and much more to our valued subscribers. We also offer access to our specialized proprietary price modeling systems that have proven to be timely and accurate.

Let’s Look at the Three Issues That Might Drive Crude Oil Lower

Crude Oil has been a major play for some traders over the past few months. With price, rotation ranges near $5~$7 and upside pressure driving a price assent from below $45 to nearly $75 peaks. This upside price move has been tremendous.

Over the past few weeks, many things have changed in the fundamentals of the Oil market. Supply continues to outpace demand, trade tariffs and slowing global economies are now starting to become real concerns, foreign suppliers have continued to increase production, US Dollar continues to strengthen and social/political unrest is starting to become more evident in many foreign nations.

In fact, we felt so strongly that big downside move in crude oil was about to happen we posted a warning to oil traders two days before the drop started.

When we consider what could happen with oil in the future with regards to over-supply and the potential for constricting global markets, we have to understand that support will likely be identified at levels that are much lower than current price – possibly below $60. Yet, at the same time, we must understand that disruptions in supply and/or regional chaos, such as war or political turmoil, in specific regions could cause the price of oil to skyrocket as these disruptions continue.

RIGHT NOW, THREE KEY ISSUES ARE DRIVING OIL LOWER

* A stronger US Dollar is making it more expensive for foreign nations to purchase Oil on the open market as well as moving capital away from foreign local investments and migrating capital into the US Equities markets

* Supply issues (the increased capacity for greater supply) is resulting in a glut of oil available on the open market when we have dozens of supply ships still waiting to offload throughout the world. In other words, we have an over-supply of oil at the moment.

* A lack of any urgency or crisis event to support Oil above $65 at the moment. Given the slow, but consistent, transition towards cleaner more energy efficient vehicles and energy as well as the lack of any real conflict or crisis event to disrupt supply, it appears there is no real support for Oil above $65 – at least so far.

DAILY CRUDE LIGHT CHART

This Daily Crude Light chart shows a simple price channel that correlates recent price lows into a channel and shows a Fibonacci Retracement range for recent price rotations. We can see that the price of Crude is holding just above the 50% retracement level right now and any breach below $70 would be a very strong downside price breakout. Should price drop below $68, we could see a selloff to below $64 as price may attempt to establish a new “price low” to the downside.

MONTHLY CRUDE CHART

This Monthly Crude chart below shows us where we believe support and resistance price zones are located. You can see from the highlighted areas that resistance is located between $70~86 and support is located between $44~56 on this longer-term monthly chart. You can also see that the Fibonacci retracement levels for the current upside move are currently nearing 55~57% (above the 50% level and nearing the 61.8% level). The combination factor that Crude has recently rotated lower, near the upper price channel, within the resistance zone, above 50% and nearing 61.8% Fibonacci level, strongly suggests that we could see a stronger downside price swing in the near future. Until $60 is breached, consider this move simple rotation. Once $60 is breached to the downside, then consider this a deeper downside price move.

With so many factors in play throughout the world, one has to be aware that Crude Oil is a commodity that correlates to expected economic activities, global crisis events, and supply/demand factors. Right now, an almost perfect storm is setting up for Oil to continue to fall to new lows which will likely push Crude below $60 ppb (eventually) and may push it down to near $55 ppb (our upper support zone). We caution traders/investors through – any crisis news item, war or other disruption in supply could dramatically alter the factor that makes up this price prediction. Right now, without any of these issues, we see Oil continuing to fall towards the $60 price level.

Also, visit The Technical Traders Free Market Research to read all of our most recent free research posts. We believe you’ll quickly see the value in what we provide our members and our visitors by reading and understanding how we have continued to stay ahead of these market moves for months.

53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Get our advanced research and market reporting, Daily market videos, detailed trading signals and join the hundreds of other traders that follow our research every day and profit.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd.

Crude Oil and Gas ETFs are Having a Good 2018

Thus far in 2018, the oil and gas industry has been booming. Rig counts in the US are up, prices at the pump are up, and the oil and gas ETFs tracking the sector are up by a lot.

Investors who have been following the industry over the past year could have made some serious money as a few of the leveraged ETFs are up 238% or more. The Velocity Shares 3X Long Crude Oil ETN (UWT) is up 247% over the last 12 months and is up more than 70% year to date. The UBS ETRACS ProShares Daily 3X Long Crude ETN (WTIU) has risen 240% over the last year and 64% year to date. Finally, the Proshares UltraPro 3X Crude Oil ETF (OILU) is up 238% over the last 12 months and 63% year to date.

But, perhaps your less risky and don’t like investing in the leveraged ETFs? Well, you still could have done well as the United States Brent Oil Fund LP (BNO) is up 71% over the last year and 19.9% since the start of 2018. Or perhaps you went with the ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF (OILK) which is up 62% in the past 12 months and 23% year to date. Or either the iPath Series B S&P GSCI Crude Oil ETN (OILB) or the United States Oil Fund LP (USO) which are both up more than 61% over the last year and 23% year to date.

There have been some reasons why the industry has been on a tear over the last, and many of that reason don’t show signs of changing in the short term. OPEC is committed to increasing the price of oil (despite its recent modest increase in production), smaller U.S. outfits still need slightly higher prices before they can add additional rigs and become profitable, the economy appears to be healthy and growing, US consumers have not yet begun to fell the “pain at the pump” again really.

While recent data and projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration don’t indicate massive price increases for oil and gas shortly, they are predicting increases. Speaking of the government, despite President Trump's promises, he has yet been able to change the shift we saw occur during the later Obama years when electric plants switched to natural gas from coal. This is something that really could change the oil and gas landscape in coming years if natural begin to climb naturally. Depending on which resource, oil or natural gas is more profitable, U.S. producers could flip-flop from one to another, causing the prices of both to climb. But, this would be something to watch for in a much longer time horizon than what we are discussing today.

Some investors may feel the run in oil and gas has already taken place and that greener pastures should be explored, as opposed to trying to get on a moving train. But, if the economic reasons for the price increases haven’t changed, then prices should theoretically continue to climb until something else changes.

Furthermore, while OPEC and Russia both talk about higher output, the fact of the matter is both parties want the price of oil to either remain where it is or increase. Most of the countries in OPEC need Oil and Gas money in order to run their governments, while it is clear to most, that some high ranking Russian government officials have personal interests in the industry.

Furthermore, the argument could be made that both Russia and OPEC would rather see prices stay flat as opposed to climbing back to $100 a barrel because current prices keep some of the U.S. producers out of business and this gives Russia and OPEC more control on global production and price stability.

But, regardless of why Russia and OPEC may want to prices getting out of control, they still want to maintain current prices, giving oil and gas a reasonably stable price floor.

Buying different oil and gas ETFs, ETNs or other funds may not produce the huge returns we have seen in the past 12 or 7 months, but they could still bear fruit worth eating. The leveraged investments appear to be extremely risky at this time, even though I don’t see prices falling, but simply because of the daily costs associated with these funds. Buying a solid group of oil and gas ETFs made up of both the companies operating in the industry and the commodities themselves could pay healthy dividends in the coming year.

Matt Thalman
INO.com Contributor - ETFs

Why Gold Miners Should Rally as U.S. Equities Fall on Fear

The US Equities markets rotated over 1.35% lower on Monday, June 25, after a very eventful weekend full of news and global political concerns. Much of this fear results from unknowns resulting from Europe, Asia, China, Mexico and the US. Currently, there are so many “contagion factors” at play, we don’t know how all of it will eventually play out in the long run.

Europe is in the midst of a moderate political revolt regarding refugee/immigration issues/costs and political turmoil originating from the European Union leadership. How they resolve these issues will likely be counter to the populist demands from the people of Europe.

Asia is in the midst of a political and economic cycle rotation. Malaysia has recently elected Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, the 92 year old previous prime minister (1981-2003) as a populist revolt against the Najib Razak administration. In the process, Mahathir has opened new and old corruption and legal issues while attempting to clean up the corruption and nepotism that has run rampant in Malaysia. Most recently, Mahathir has begun to question the established relationship with Singapore and the high speed rail system that was proposed to link the two countries.

China is experiencing a host of issues at the moment. Trade concerns, capital market concerns, corporate debt concerns and an overall economic downturn cycle that started near the beginning of 2018. What will it take to push China over the edge in terms of a credit/consumer market crash is anyone’s guess? Our assumption is that continued inward and outward pressures will not abate quickly – so more unknowns exist.

Mexico will have new Presidential elections on July 1, 2018. What hangs in the balance of this election cycle is just about everything in terms of North American economic cooperation and future success. It is being reported that a populist “anti-neoliberal” movement is well underway in Mexico and the newly elected leader may begin a broader pushback against President Trump regarding NAFTA, immigration, US corporations operating in Mexico and more. We won’t know the full outcome of this election till well after July 2018.

Meanwhile, back in the USA, our political leaders in Congress and the House of Representatives seem hell bent on opposing everything President Trump and many Americans seem to want – clean up the mess in our government and get a handle on the pressing issues before us. The U.S. has a growing and robust economy. The last thing anyone wants right now is anything to disrupt this growth. Yet, it seems the political divide in the U.S. is so strong that it may take some crisis event to push any resolution forward.

What does this mean for investors and traders? Fear typically appears in one place before it appears anywhere else – the Metals markets (Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium). This Daily Gold Chart shows our predictive cycle analysis pointing to a near term bottom formation as well as a strong likelihood of immediate upside price action. These cycles do not represent price levels. So the cycle peak does not represent where price will go – it simply indicates future cycle trends and direction.

Given this information, it is very likely that Gold will recover to near 1320 within the next couple weeks and possibly push higher on global concerns. For traders, this means we are sitting near an ultimate bottom in the metals and this could be an excellent buying opportunity.

The Gold Miners ETF shows a similar cycle pattern but notice how prices in the Miners ETF have diverged from the Gold chart, above, by not resorting to a new price low as deep as seen above. This could be interpreted as the Gold market reacting to global concerns in an exaggerated way while the miners ETF is showing a more muted reaction. Additionally, notice how the ADL cycle analysis is pointing to similar price peaks in the future with near term bottoms forming. This is key to understanding what we should be expecting over the next few weeks in Gold.

Our interpretation is that the global fear will manifest as a renewed upside trend in Gold and Gold Miners over the next few weeks with the potential for a 5 to 8% rally in Gold. The long term upside is incredible for these trades but that is if you look years into the future.

As these fear components and unknowns continue to evolve, the metals markets should find support and push higher as fear continues to manifest and global markets continue to weaken.

As we have been stating since the beginning of this year, 2018 is setting up to be a trader’s dream. Bigger volatility. Bigger swings. Bigger profits if you are on the right side of these moves. Our proprietary predictive modeling systems and price analysis tools help us to stay ahead of the markets.

We help our members understand the risks and navigate the future trends by issuing research posts, providing Daily video analysis complete with cycle projections and by delivering clear trading signals that assist all of our members in finding profits each year. We are showing you one of our proprietary tools right now, our ADL Predictive Cycle tool and what we believe will be the start of a potential upside move in the metals markets.

 Get ready for some great trading over the next few months!

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Natural Gas Setup for 32% Move Using UGAZ Fund

As we all know a picture says 1000 words, which is one of the reasons why I gravitated to trading using technical analysis. I can look at a chart and in seconds understand what price has done and is likely to do in the near future, without knowing a single thing about the company, index, or commodity. Why spend time reading news, financial statements, and other opinions when you can fast track the entire process with a chart.

So, let’s just jump into the 30 minute chart of natural gas which shows the regular trading hours 9:30am – 4pm ET.

Natural Gas 30 Minute Chart with Oversold and Trend Analysis

This chart could not be any more simple. Green bars and green line mean price is in an uptrend and you should only look to buy oversold dips. We got long a 3x natural gas ETN on May 3rd right near the dead low. After a few weeks, price action and longer term charts started to signal potential weakness, so we closed out the position for a simple 32% profit.

UGAZ 3X Leveraged Natural Gas Fund

Here is 240 minute (4 hour) candlestick chart of the natural gas fund.

53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text.

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Chris Vermeulen

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Here’s Why We See the G7, Central Banks and U.S. Fed Will Drive Stock Prices this Week

After last weeks closing bell for stocks and the early signs of the Capital Market Shift which we mentioned previously was taking place are now clearly evident. We wanted to alert all of our followers that this week could be very dramatic with a number of key events playing into global expectations.

Our research team at Technical Traders Ltd. have been combing through the charts trying to find hints of what may happen and what to expect in terms of price volatility next week. We know our ADL price modeling system is telling us that certain price weakness will continue in certain sectors and strength in others – but we are searching for the next opportunities for great trades.

One of the key elements of the G7 meeting is the continued communication regarding global participation in key infrastructure projects and national cooperation in regards to economic stability.

Over the past 8+ years, the bulk of the global recovery has been based on the US economic stability and recovery. US interest rates allowed for a global “carry trade” that supported a large component of the economic bias in foreign countries. Additionally, the deeply discounted U.S. bonds provided a “fire sale” opportunity for many countries to secure U.S. Treasuries at a time when global central banks were printing cash to support failing economies. Overall, the economic conditions from 2009 to 2015 were such that every opportunity was provided to the global markets to make it easier to attempt a proper recovery.

Some nations were able to capitalize on this environment while others squandered the opportunity to create future growth, capabilities and new opportunities for success. Given the current global market environment, we expect some harsh comments to come from the G7 meeting as well as some wishful thinking comments. Overall, we believe the outcome of the G7 meeting will become a defining moment for the remainder of the year in terms of global economic expectations and forward intent. It will certainly be interesting to see how these leaders decide to operate within the constructs of the ever changing global market liabilities to say the least.

Right now, a lot of concern has been directed towards the Emerging Markets and what appears to be a near term market collapse. Debt spreads and global indexes have been moving in a pattern that clearly illustrates the Central Banks problems in containing the diverse economic conditions throughout the globe. Infrastructure projects, social/political shifts and currency valuations are complicating matters by creating extended pressures in many global economies recently. All of this centers around the strength of the U.S. economy and the US dollar as related to expectations and valuations of other foreign economies and currencies.

Almost like a double edged sword, as the U.S. economy/dollar continues to strengthen, foreign capital will migrate into these US assets because of the inherent protection and gains provided by the strength and growth of these markets. While at the same time, the exodus of capital from these foreign markets create a vacuum of value/capability that results in a continued decline in asset valuations and more.

Almost like the 1994 Asian Currency Crisis, the more the US economy strengthens, the more pressures the global markets feel as valuations and assets become more risky to investors. As investors flee this risk, they search for safe returns and value that is found in the US economy/Dollar – driving US equities higher and strengthening the US Dollar. It is a cycle that will likely continue until some equilibrium point is reached in the future.

The US markets are on a terror rally because global capital is searching and seeking the greatest returns possible – and the only place on the planet, right now, that is offering this type of return is the US economy and the US equities market. Our recent research shows that the NASDAQ indexes may stall and rotate over the next few months as price valuations have accelerated quite far and because the blue chips are relatively undervalued at the moment. This means, capital will likely continue to pour into the S&P and DOW heavyweights as this capital shift continues to play out.

The G7 meeting, in Toronto, this week will likely present some interesting outcomes. Early talk is that the G6 nations (minus the US) may enact some deal that they believe would be suitable for these nations going forward. Our concern is not the deal or the threat of these nations trying to engage in some deal without the US – far from it. Our concern is that their wishes may be grandiose and ill timed given these currency and valuation issues.

Imagine, for a second, the G6 nations engage in some grand scheme to engage in something to spite the USA. Some plan that seems big and bold and over the top. Yet, 5 months from now, debt issues plague these nations, currency valuations have destroyed any advantage they may have perceived they had and the member nations are beginning to feel the pressures of their own entrapment. What then? The USA to the rescue....again?

Recently, Ben Bernanke, a Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institute, warned that Donald Trump’s economy was like a Wile E. Coyote going over a cliff. Everything seems well and fine till the road ends and the cliff begins. I would like to remind all of our readers that The Brookings Institute does not have a stellar record of predicting much of anything over the past 10+ years. Take a look at this graph showing the economic expectations and predictions from The Brookings Institute over the past decade or so. Do these people seem capable of accurately predicting anything regarding the U.S. or global economy?

Now, ignoring all of the what if scenarios that are being presented by different people. The bottom line is that the next 6+ months are going to be very exciting for traders and investors. There are huge issues that are unfolding in the global economy right now. Currency levels are about to be shaken even further and the G6 nations, by the time they complete their high priced dinners and evening events, will walk out of the G7 meeting staring down a greater global debt/currency/economic beast of their own creation.

SE Asia is in the process or rewriting and resolving issues of the past 10+ years (see Malaysia / Singapore).

China is in the midst of a massive debt cycle that is about to play out over the next 18+ months (totaling about 1.8 Trillion Yuan).

The Brasil Bovespa Index has rotated into new BEARISH territory.

The Mexican iShares (EWW) ETF is about to break multi-year lows.

The Hang Seng Index is setting up a possible topping pattern that could break down given state and corporate debt concerns.

The iShares Turkey (EURONEXT) index has already broken to new multi-year lows.

The G6 better have some rabbits in their hats that they can magically transform into big bullish projects over the next 12 months or the economic functions that are at play in the world already are likely to steamroll over the top of any news that originates from the G7 meeting.

The U.S. markets are setup for a continued bullish rally with a bit of Summer capital shifts. Our recent research called the rotation out of the tech heavy NASDAQ and a renewed capital shift into the S&P and the DOW leaders. This rotation is likely to continue for many weeks or months as global investors realize the earnings capabilities and dividends values within the U.S. blue chips are of far greater long term value than the risks associated with technology and bio-tech firms. Because of this, we believe the S&P and DOW/Transports are setting up for a massive price rally to break recent all time market highs.

Here is a Daily chart of the YM futures contract showing the recent price breakout and rally. Our expectation is that 26,000 will be breached within 30 days or so and that a large capital shift will drive a continued advance through the end of 2018 – possibly further.

Here is a Daily $TRANS chart showing a similar bullish move. Although the Transportation Index has not broken to new highs yet, we believe this upside move is just beginning and we believe the continued improvements in the US economy will drive the Transportation index to near 11,450 or higher before the end of this year.

Our opinion continues to support the hypothesis that the US markets are the only game on the planet (at the moment) and that a great capital shift is underway in terms of investment in, purchases of and generally opportunistic investment opportunities for US equities and markets going forward. Until something changes where the US dollar strength, foreign economic weakness and foreign debt cycles are abated or resolved, we believe the great capital shift that we have been warning of will continue which will put continued pressures on certain foreign markets and expand debt burdens of at risk nations over time.

Smart traders will be able to identify these opportunities and capitalize on them. They will see this shift taking place and take advantage of the opportunities that arise for quick and easy profits. If you like our research and our understanding of the global markets, be sure to join our premium research and Trade Alert Wealth Building Newsletter. Our valued members stay with us because we have continually proven to be ahead of nearly every market move this year – in many cases many months ahead of the global markets. So, with all of this playing out over the next 6+ months, we suggest you consider joining The Technical Traders to learn how we can help to keep you out of trouble and ahead of the markets for greater success.

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