Long Term Gold/U.S. Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends for Metals - Part II

In the first part of our U.S. dollar and gold research, we highlighted the U.S. dollar vs. gold trends and how we believe precious metals have recently bottomed while the U.S. dollar may be starting a broad decline. We are highlighting this because many of our friends and followers have asked us to put some research out related to the U.S. dollar decline. Back in November, we published an article that highlighted the Appreciation/Depreciation phases of the market. This past research article – How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase – Part II – is an excellent review item for today’s Part II conclusion to our current article.

Custom Metals Index Channels & Trends

Our Weekly Custom Metals Index chart, below, highlights the major bottom in precious metals in late 2015 as well as the continued upside price rally that is taking place in precious metals. If our research is correct, the bottom that formed in 2015 was a “half cycle bottom” – where the major cycle dates span from 2010 to 2019 or so. This half cycle bottom suggests risk factors related to the global market and massive credit expansion after the 2008-09 credit crisis may have sparked an early appreciation phase in precious metals – launching precious metals higher nearly 3 to 4 years before the traditional cycle phases would normally end/reverse....Continue Reading Here.

Custom Index Charts Suggest U.S. Stock Market Ready for a Pause

Weeks after the Election Rally initiated a moderately strong upside breakout rally, our Custom Index charts suggest the US stock market may be ready for a brief pause in trending before any new trends continue. Global traders and investors jumped into the US stock market just days before the US elections expecting something big to take place. The rally that initiated just days before the US election pushed our Custom Index charts well into the upper range of the 2016 to 2018 upward sloping price channel. This suggests the US stock markets have ended the downward price reversion and are now attempting to extend into the upward price channel....attempting to resume the upward trending that started after the 2016 elections.

Weekly Smart Cash and Volatility Indexes

The Weekly Smart Cash Index, below, highlights the impressive rally recently and the upward sloping price channel that is back in play for price. The highlighted range of the upward sloping price channel is actually the lower half of the std deviation range of the 2016 to 2018 price channel. So, as of right now, the Smart Cash Index price level has yet to really breach the middle of this channel and is still only within the lower half of the channel. Still, the support near the lower boundary of this level has been retested two or three times over the past six months and held. This suggests the lower channel level (the lower heavy BLUE line) is now acting as moderate price support....Continue Reading Here.

Gold Wave Forecast - Is Gold Going to $3,750 or Higher?

Watching gold fall to recent lows over the past few weeks has been heartbreaking for gold bugs. We know the real value of precious metals has continued to be under appreciated over the past 24+ months – even though gold has rallied from $1165 to over $2085 (an incredible 79%). The recent 15% decline in gold has shaken some investors away from the longer term opportunities, so we wanted to share our research and highlight some simple Elliot Wave structures with you.

My research team and I believe the recent downward price trend in gold is an ideal setup for an intermediate wave 4 pullback of a broader wave 3 advance. In other words, we believe gold is in the midst of a broad advance cycle that may eventually push price levels to $5000 and above. But, we’ll focus on right now and what we believe is setting up from a technical analysis perspective.

The first thing to remember about Elliot Wave Analysis is that we must consider the broad market trends, the intermediate market trends, and the short term wave formations. With almost all types of technical analysis, we focus on different time perspectives of price trends and setups to help us better determine opportunities and outcomes....Continue Reading Here.

Gold's Momentous Rally from 2000 Compared to SPY and QQQ - Part I

My research team and I went off on a wild tangent trying to identify how the markets could react to the recent spike in price activity on Monday, November 9, 2020. This is the day that Pfizer announced a 90% effective rate with its new COVID-19 vaccine, causing the US stock market to skyrocket higher before the opening bell in New York. As with most pop and drops, this incredible upside spike trailed lower for the remainder of the trading day. My research team was curious if this type of setup presented any real future outcome or trends. To this end, we focused on the QQQ and the SPY in relationship to Gold.

9 to 9 1/2 Year Gold Depreciation Cycle Ended in 2018 – What’s Next? 

Gold has been and continues to be a store of value for many around the world. At some times in history, Gold becomes undervalued in comparison to other assets (like stocks, real estate, and other tangible assets). At other times, Gold becomes more highly valued in comparison to other assets. This cycle has taken place throughout hundreds of years of history, and is rooted in the changing perceptions of market participants regarding “what/where is true value in the markets”.

When other assets are skyrocketing higher, Gold is out of favor in terms of real demand. It may still be moving higher in value, but as long as other assets seem to be increasing in value faster than Gold, demand for Gold will diminish. When most other assets enter a time of great concern or devaluation, Gold and Precious Metals usually begin to see stronger demand as the ratio between Gold prices and more traditional investment assets may be near extremes....Continue Reading Here.

Gold and Silver Supercycles Explored

Heading into what will likely become one of the biggest events in American political history on November 3, the US stock markets are holding up quite well on Monday, November 2. My team and I have published a number of articles recently suggesting we believe wild price swings and increased volatility is to be expected before and after the US elections. 

We have even suggested a couple of stock trades that we believe should do fairly well 60+ days after the elections are complete. Right now, we want to bring your attention to the Silver Junior Miners ETF (SILJ).

The current Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up in SILJ on the following Monthly chart has peaked our attention. Diminishing volume and moderately strong support above the $12 price level suggest key resistance near $15.05 will likely be retested as metals and miners continue to attract safe-haven capital after the elections. The Apex of the Pennant/Flag formation appears to be nearly complete – a breakout or breakdown move is pending. We believe the uncertainty of the elections will prompt a possible breakout (upside) price trend in the near future....Continue Reading Here.

Crude Oil Stalls in Resistance Zone

Clear Price Channel May Prompt Big Breakout or Breakdown Move in Oil

In this report, we discuss the recent price action in crude oil and how economic conditions and the pennant flag chart pattern is indicating a big price move is about to take place over the next few weeks. While some of you may want a clear, bold prediction as to whether a breakout or breakdown may happen, as technical traders, our job is to predict different possible setups and identify the criteria that will tell us when to enter the trade upon confirmation.

Crude Oil has continued to retest the $41.75 to $42.00 resistance level over the past 30+ days. My research team believes this represents a very clear indication that further failure to advance above this level will prompt a moderate price decline – likely breaking below the $36.00 ppb price level.

We believe the completed Pennant/Flag Apex, highlighted in Light Green on the Crude Oil Futures chart below, represents a technical pattern suggesting a new price trend is pending. The recent sideways price action, highlighted by the Gold Rectangle on this chart, shows the range of price recently that is currently presenting a very clear support level (near $36) and a very clear resistance level (near $42)....Continue Reading Here.

Learn Why Energy Stocks are Underperforming

Financial Survival Network Interview Highlights....

• After a 30 year rally in the bond market, interest rates can’t go much higher given the lack of trust resulting in marginal returns. 

• The lack of demand coupled with too much supply in the oil market has oil companies losing money   at these prices. Energy stocks have been underperforming which will likely continue until demand picks up or supply is significantly curtailed. 

• Any stock market weakness or strength in the US dollar will likely lead to $1,810 Gold and $21 Silver.

Listen To The Podcast Here 

Massive Dark Cloud Cover Pattern Above Critical Support - Will It Hold?

Research Highlights.... 

• A Dark Cloud Cover pattern is a Japanese Candlestick Pattern that is typically associated with major top setups.

• Critical Support on the SPY highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335~335.25 is acting as a major support level.

• If price stays below the $339.95 level, then we interpret the trend as being Bearish. If price moves above the $343.55 level, it is Bullish.

Critical Support on the SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF) highlighted by multiple technical analysis strategies suggests 335 - 335.25 is acting as a major support level. The rally in the markets that started late Sunday and carried forward into early trading on Monday, September 28, 2020, suggests the market is attempting to rally above this support level to establish a potential momentum base. 

My advanced price modeling systems and Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs (originating from the 2009 bottom) have clearly identified this area as a critical resistance/support zone....Continue Reading Here. 

Gold Setting Up Just Like Before the Covid19 Breakdown Get Ready

Research Highlights....

• Gold rebounded quickly and broke to higher prices after the COVID deep selling.

• Our Fibonacci support levels for Gold are resting near $1,885, $1,815 & $1,790.

• More downside pressure on price is possible, but if support is maintained at $1,885 then we could see a big upside recovery trend take Gold to $2,250.

Just before the COVID-19 collapse in the markets hit near February 25, 2020, Gold started a double-dip move after reaching $1,692 on February 24. First, Gold dipped from $1,692 to $1,564, then recovered to new highs ($1,704.50) on March 10, 2020. Then, as the deeper COVID-19 selling continued, Gold prices dipped again – this time targeting a low level of $1,450.90.

What we found interesting is how quickly Gold prices recovered and broke to even higher price levels after this deep selling. Our belief is that when a crisis event first hits, which we sometimes call the “shock-wave”, all assets take a beating – including Gold and Silver. This is the event where traders and investors pull everything to CASH (closing positions). Then, as the shock-wave ends, traders re-evaluate the price levels of assets to determine how they want to deploy their capital....Continue Reading Here.

Global Markets Break Hard to the Downside - Watch These Support Levels

Research Highlights....

• New reports of widespread financial corruption likely triggered the current sell off.

• Watch out for market support levels to see if this is a short term correction or the start of a downtrend.

• Support for the DOW is just above 26,000.

• Support for the SP500 is around 3,100.

U.S. and global markets were already under pressure over the past few weeks related to COVID-19 issues and global economic expectations. The technology sector had driven valuations to levels not seen since the DOT COM bubble near the end of August and many of the US Indexes has reached or breached all time highs again.

My research team and I warned followers to “stay cautious” throughout much of the price rally as our proprietary price modeling systems suggests the rally was isolated and not organic. The U.S. Fed has spewed capital into the markets and speculative traders piled into the “excess phase” of the market to drive price levels higher. Take a moment to review these recent research posts to learn more....Continue Reading Here.