Thursday, June 3, 2010

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Thursday Evening


Crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rebound off May's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.60 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.60. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 75.72. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.97. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed higher on Thursday and closed above the upper boundary of the April-May trading range crossing at 4.433. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 4.872 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.264 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.703. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 4.872. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.217. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.971.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the consolidation pattern of the past two weeks. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near term. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 85.33 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.12. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 85.33.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 1251.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1230.60. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1251.40. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1206.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

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