Saturday, April 30, 2016

Our Next Technical Price Targets for Gold & Silver

I have pointed out earlier, gold is forming a possible short term top. It is on the verge of completing a bearish ‘Head and Shoulder’ pattern. The pattern is confirmed if gold closes below $1220/oz. The downside pattern target for this setup is $1138/oz. 
If gold starts to rally and breaks out to the upside, then we should see the $1396 level be reached based on technical analysis.
I will open a new long gold position when the time feels right. With technical analysis strongly suggesting gold and silver have bottomed, New breakouts to the upside in metals and mining stocks can be bought.
goldtargets
On the other hand, silver has formed an almost perfect cup and handle pattern and has broken out of it. It has reached its first target objective; chances are that silver will either consolidate or pullback after having met its target or move up to $18.70/oz. levels, which is the pattern target of the ‘Cup and Handle’ pattern formation. However, new buying is not advised at current levels due to a poor risk-reward ratio.
If you have not read the post about what the Silver COT data is warning us about be sure to read this short post: Click Here
silvertarget
If we take a look and monitor the gold/silver ratio closely, recently, the ratio had touched its resistance of the past 20 years. Every time the ratio has returned from the resistance, the minimum it has retraced is to the levels of 45.
There are no reasons to believe that it will be any different this time around. Hypothetically, if gold were to remain at $1236/oz. and if the ratio corrects to 45, silver will reach $27.5/oz., which is a 62% increase from current levels.
Hence, it is prudent to stay with silver for a better return compared to gold once price has a pause to regroup before the next rally.
ratiotarget
How to Trade Gold & Silver Conclusion:
Buying gold and silver offer different rate of returns to the investors. If an investor is able to time both the precious metals, then the total returns will be ‘astronomically high’ in the future.
My timing ‘cycles’ provide signals both for the short term and the long term. The price action of both gold and silver along with my cycles have been showing VERY strong “Cycle Skew”, which I explain in detail in my book “Technical Trading Mastery”. This cycle skew is telling us that precious metals are now in a strong uptrend and is another confirming indicator that support much higher prices long term.
During the first half of a bull market trading price patterns and upside breakouts tend to work very well. Because interest in the sector is growing and more buyers continue to enter that market, price pattern breakouts are the last chance to get a position before price has its next rally higher.
I will continue to inform my subscribers of new swing trades, and even more importantly the long term investing "Set it and Forget It" ETF trades to ride out the new bull and bear markets for massive profits.
Keep following me to know more at: www.The Gold and Oil Guy.com
Chris Vermeulen



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Here’s The Only Oil Stock You Should Own Right Now

By Justin Spittler

It was the most important oil meeting in years. The world was watching closely on Sunday as 16 major oil nations met in Doha, Qatar. Saudi Arabia and Russia, two of the world’s biggest oil producers, were among the heavyweights in attendance. The purpose of the meeting: to reach an agreement to “freeze” oil production at current levels. It was the first time in fifteen years that OPEC, a cartel of 13 oil producing countries, met with nonmembers to discuss freezing output.

As you likely know, the price of oil has crashed 75% since June 2014. Thanks to new methods like “fracking,” the world has too much oil. According to the International Energy Association, oil companies produce about 1.4 million more barrels of oil a day than the global economy consumes. 

In February, oil hits its lowest price since 2003. Low oil prices have slammed economies that depend on oil. For example, Saudi Arabia posted its largest budget deficit in history last year. And Russia’s currency has lost 49% of its value since oil prices began to decline.

Low oil prices have slammed major oil companies, too. Last year, British oil giant BP (BP) recorded its biggest annual loss ever. U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) earned their lowest annual profits since 2002 last year. Since June 2014, shares of these three oil companies are down 27% on average.

Many experts hoped an agreement to freeze production would support oil prices…
But the countries failed to reach an agreement. Bloomberg Business explained why.
Discussions broke down after Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries rejected any deal unless all OPEC members joined including Iran…
Iran didn’t even attend the meeting in Doha…
For years, economic sanctions have cut off Iran from the global economy. These sanctions were put in place to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb. They crippled Iran's economy in the process. Iran’s oil exports have plunged 45% since 2011.

The U.S. and five other countries lifted these sanctions last year. With the sanctions gone, Iran plans to significantly boost its oil production. In March, Iran pumped 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd), which made it the world’s sixth-biggest oil producer. It hopes to soon increase that to 4 million bpd.
Iran also plans to double its oil exports. In February, Iran sold oil to Europe for the first time since 2012. Bloomberg Business explains:
Iran’s oil minister called a proposal by Saudi Arabia and Russia to freeze oil production “ridiculous” as it seeks to boost output after years of sanctions constrained sales.
Yesterday, the price of oil plunged 6.4% on the bad news…
But it recovered almost all its losses, ending the day down just 0.7%. Today, it’s up 3.2% Oil stocks shrugged off the bad news, too. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), which tracks major U.S. oil producers, rose 2% yesterday. We see this as an important bullish sign for oil stocks. This bad news could have easily pushed oil below $30 a barrel. Instead, oil is trading higher today than it was yesterday.

It looks like the worst is over for oil stocks…
Although we’re not “calling the bottom” in oil stocks, we do think the oil market has entered a new phase.
You see, when an industry crashes as hard as oil has over the past 18 months, all stocks in the industry usually tank. Even the best companies suffer big losses. But when a crashing market nears a bottom, things start to change. Investors looking for bargains begin to buy top quality companies. Strong companies start to separate themselves from the weak. That’s happening in the oil sector now.

For example, Exxon, the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, has jumped 14% this year. Chevron, the second largest, has jumped 11%. These are both large, quality oil companies. Meanwhile, weaker companies are still fighting to survive. They’re bleeding cash. To make money, they need oil at $50 or higher. Yesterday, oil closed at $41.47…and that’s after a 50% rally since February. We’re not saying oil prices are ready to head higher. As we mentioned, the world is still oversupplied by about 1.4 million barrels per day. We’ll likely see more defaults and bankruptcies in the oil sector.

But we are saying now is a good time to start buying cheap, extremely high quality oil stocks…
Because oil is likely to stay low for at least several more months, it’s important to buy only the very best oil businesses. Stick with companies that have big margins, plenty of cash, and little debt. Only invest in companies that can make money even if oil stays low.

Nick Giambruno, editor of Crisis Investing, just recommended one such oil company. If you don’t know Nick, his specialty is buying quality assets for cheap, when no one else wants them. Following this strategy has allowed him to make large gains for subscribers, like the 210% gain he made on Cypriot hospitality business Lordos Hotels in the wake of that country’s banking crisis a few years back. Nick has been keeping a close eye on the oil industry for months…waiting for the right time to buy. And last month, he told his readers it was finally time to “pull the trigger.”

He recommended a world class oil company with “trophy assets” in America’s richest oil regions...a rock solid balance sheet…and some of the industry’s best profit margins. Most importantly, the company is making money. According to Nick, some of the company’s projects are profitable at as low as $35 oil.
Nick is certain this company will survive the current downturn. Its stock could deliver huge gains when oil prices recover past $50.

You can learn more about this opportunity by signing up for Crisis Investing. Click here to begin your risk-free trial.

Chart of the Day

Silver is having its best day in six months. If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know silver recently “broke out.” More specifically, it “carved a bottom.” That happens when an asset stops falling, forms a bottom for a period of time, and starts heading higher. Assets often keep rising after carving bottoms. As you can see below, that’s exactly what silver’s done. Today, silver skyrocketed 5.3%, its biggest jump since October. Silver is now up 23% on the year. It’s at its highest price since last April.

At risk of sounding like a broken record, we think silver is headed much higher. It could easily triple in the coming years. Silver stocks, which are leveraged to the price of silver, could go even higher. If you would like to speculate on higher silver prices, we recommend you watch a short video we just put together. It explains how you could grow your money by 10x or more in the coming years. If interested, you’ll want to watch this presentation soon. It will no longer be available after tomorrow.

Click here to watch.



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Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, April 11, 2016

Massive Surge in Precious Metals and a New Spike Alert

Metals and mining stocks continue to rock higher decoupling from our cycle analysis to create a strong impulse wave higher. This is what I feared last week and talked about happening and is the reason we had our protective stop for our short gold trade so we would keep that trade as a winner. Also, my gut was warning that this cycle break and emotional rally was trying to happen, and that is why we did not re-enter a short position in this sector.
The last two weeks this sector has been moving fairly sporadically and out of sync. Because of this, I have not covered it in much detail. Yesterday Obama announced an unexpected and expedited closed door meeting with the FED for today. I think this may have everyone worried and buying metals today.
Today’s massive gap and rally actually have me very interested in a short trade for gold. With the chart forming a balance head and shoulders pattern, price trading at resistance, a news/fear based rally, along with a short term cycle topping today, this could be a great low-risk trade and price may fade back down over the next 1-3 days.
See chart below or login to view:
goldshort

Couple things to touch on here:
First, I would like to mention and be clear that while I share some spike alert setups here and there with you, those trades are not the main focus of this newsletter and my trading. This year the way the markets have been gyrating spike trades have definitely filled the void for a lack of swing trades and long term investment positions.
We will sooner than later start building some new long term positions and have swing trades. But it is difficult because so many markets are all trying to change directions and chopping around. I don’t want us holding onto trades that will be all over the place for several weeks before moving in our favor. We don’t need that stress. Rather, I’m trying to hold off as long as I can before getting positioned. Don’t worry, they are coming!
Second, I know many of you love the price spikes as they provide a steady stream of winning trades each week. Friday morning was a quick $900 profit, and this morning in the video I shared with you the SPY price spike that took place in pre market today. I traded it also for a quick day trade pocketing $400.00 in less than 1 hour to kick start the week.
You can see my trade today with my Interactive Brokers account. I waited to enter this trade until I felt the market shook out the short positions and got everyone bullish for the day. Then I sold short 1 the ES mini futures contract at 10:01am.
I have explained the market shakeout move before. How we see a price spike and the market, but the price will first move in the opposite direction to get everyone on the wrong side of the trade before it makes its move to reach the spike target.
Then 59 minutes later at 11:00am I bought back my short position and locked in 8 points ($50 per point x 8 = $400). Then another short position in the afternoon as the market started to breakdown again to fill the morning spike for another 11.5 points ($50 per point x $11.5 = $575).
spiketargets
Just these three trades you were able to pocket $1,8670.00 which is more than enough to cover 4 years of me sharing analysis and trades with you… not too shabby!
I will be creating a mini course/guide on how to trade Spike Alerts soon because there is an art to doing it well. Plus, I am working on a solution so those of you who want to keep rocking with the price spikes can do so without me bombarding every member with all this day trading/momentum analysis and updates.
I totally understand and feel for those who just want long term and swing trades and not intraday updates all the time. So, I’m working to satisfy both groups.

Get Chris' Swing Trading and Long Term Investing Signals....Just Click Here!


Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Don Kaufman shows us how to "Protect & Profit" in any Market

Today we want to introduce the newest member of our team, Don Kaufman. Don has made quite a mark in the last couple months with the introduction of his new TheoTrade program. Truth is, some of our readers have stated they are getting more from his free videos then some of the more expensive programs they have purchased.

Don will be bringing us a free webinar monthly to keep us on the cutting edge of these extremely volatile markets. Just take advantage of any one of his free items. Getting his free eBook or even just watching his most recent free video will guarantee that you will get notified of the free webinars.

So what's in the "How to Protect & Profit in Any Market" eBook?

This 50 page eBook [visit here for free download] will teach you what you need to know to start playing the markets instead of the markets playing you.

Your Portfolio Deserves More Than a 50/50 Chance 
It has been shown statistically, over the long run, that fundamental and technical analysis is right about 50% of the time. Flipping a coin will give you the same percentage. As the author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Malkiel states, “Technical and Fundamental analysis is a science giving astrology a good name.” Why flip a coin when you can use high probability options strategies?

Diversification is Dead
As a Wall Street saying goes, "When they raid the house they take everyone." Professionals consider diversification as a hedge for people who don’t know how to hedge. Think about it - would you protect the value of your own home against a potential fire by diversifying, that is, buying two houses so if one burns down, the appreciation in the other offsets your loss? Of course not! You insure your home so if it burns down, the insurance covers most of the loss. Welcome to one aspect of using options. Real professionals know how to use options to protect their portfolio from any shock to the markets.

Be The House 
Today, investing in the stock market is a big gamble, almost like going to Vegas and playing the slots. And we all know what happens with slot machines. The House always wins. It may take a loss occasionally, but the overall strategy assures that the House will always come out on top. Options let's you turn the tide and be the house. Find out how you can put the odds in your favor.

Get Don's FREE eBook "The Rebel's Guide to Trading Options"....Just Visit Here!

See you in the markets,
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader

About Don Kaufman 
Don is one of the industry's leading financial strategists and educational authorities with 18 years of financial industry experience. Prior to co-founding TheoTrade, Mr. Kaufman spent 6 years at TD Ameritrade as Director of the Trader Group. At TD Ameritrade Mr. Kaufman handled thinkorswim® content and client education which included the design, build, and execution of what has become the industry standard in financial education. He started his career at thinkorswim® in 2000 (acquired by TD Ameritrade in 2009), where he served as chief derivatives instructor, helping the firm progress into the industry leader in retail options trading and investor education services.

Sunday, April 3, 2016

The Answer to the Biggest Question in the Markets Right Now

By Justin Spittler

Are we in a bear market or a bull market? If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know that U.S. stocks have had a wild ride this year. The S&P got off to a horrible start in 2016, plunging 11% in just six weeks. But since mid-February, stocks have staged a huge bounce, climbing 13%. Regular readers know we’ve been skeptical of this big rally. We’ve argued that until the S&P 500 sets a new high, there’s little reason to be bullish. And we just got another clue that this rally is “suspect”.

The initial public offering (IPO) market is at financial-crisis lows.....
An IPO is when a private company goes public by selling stock to investors. The health of the IPO market can say a lot about the state of the stock market. Buying stock at its IPO is typically a high risk, high potential move. IPOs have a lot of potential because they’re often involved in a new or exciting business. Many investors who buy are hoping to get in early on the next Starbucks, Facebook, or Google.

However, IPOs are also very risky. The companies are often based on new or unproven business models. Many companies with an IPO are losing money every quarter. Some barely earn any revenue at all. More often than not, investors who buy IPOs are buying hopes and dreams, not stable, profitable business. When markets are healthy, investors are more willing to take a chance at buying an IPO. But when markets are shaky, IPOs tend to do poorly, as investors seek safer, more stable investments.

The number of U.S. IPOs plunged to a seven-year low last quarter.....
Investor’s Business Daily reported on Wednesday.
Just eight IPOs got out the door in Q1, down 76% from 34 in Q1 2015. That was the fewest IPOs since Q1 2009, which had just one. The $700 million in proceeds raised was the lowest total in 20 years, down 87% from the $5.5 billion raised in Q1 2015, according to Renaissance Capital, which manages two IPO-focused exchange traded funds.
Like us, The Wall Street Journal thinks this is a bad omen for the rest of the stock market.
[I]f the pace of IPOs doesn’t accelerate, it could be a warning sign for the rally.

The U.S. IPO market is heading toward its worst year since the financial crisis.....
On Tuesday, VentureBeat reported that just 24 companies have filed for IPOs this year. You can see in the chart below that the IPO market is on track to have its worst year since 2008.


We warned that the IPO market was slowing in October.....
Back then, the IPO market was just starting to show cracks. The S&P 500 was coming off its first 10% decline in four years. Companies are hesitant to go public when markets are volatile, because nervous investors are less likely to buy shares in an IPO. We also noted that several high profile companies either cancelled or postponed their IPOs. Supermarket chain Albertsons, which delayed going public in October, still hasn’t had its IPO.

Casey Research founder Doug Casey said to avoid one of the year’s most anticipated IPOs.…
The Italian carmaker Ferrari (RACE) went public on October 21. Days before the IPO, Doug urged readers of The Casey Report to not buy the stock.
Ferrari is going to have an IPO on its stock soon. A smart move on their part; when the ducks are quacking, you should feed them. I wouldn’t touch it if your broker offers you some…
Doug’s call was spot-on. Ferrari’s stock has plunged 25% since its IPO.

Most of last year’s IPOs have been huge disappointments..…
Investor’s Business Daily reports:
Among all IPOs of 2015, their stocks are down 18% on average from their IPO price and down 28% after the first trading day, Renaissance says.

Instead of buying IPOs, investors have been buying “defensive” stocks..…
For example, utility stocks have jumped 13% this year. The S&P 500 is up just 1%.
As Dispatch readers know, utilities tend to perform well when markets are shaky. No matter how bad the economy gets, folks still need running water, electricity, and gas to heat their homes. Investors often pile into utility stocks for safety.

Consumer staple stocks, which sell things like groceries, toothpaste, and laundry detergent, have also done well this year. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP), which tracks 39 consumer staple stocks, is up 5%. It hit an all-time high on Wednesday. Like water and electricity, folks buy these items no matter what’s happening with the economy.

Investors are also buying gold..…
As we often say, gold is money. It’s preserved wealth through economic depressions, currency crises, and every other kind of financial disaster. Investors often buy gold when they’re concerned about the economy or stocks. This year, the price of gold is up 16%. Yesterday, gold closed its best quarter since 1986.

Gold is the ultimate defensive asset.....
Even though utilities and consumer staple stocks are less risky than most stocks, they’re still stocks. They generally move with the rest of the market. During the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 plunged 57%. Utilities fell 49%. Consumer staple stocks fell 34%. Gold only fell 29%. And in the aftermath of the crisis, gold recovered much more quickly than stocks. It went on to surge 167% from November 2008 to September 2011.

Today, gold is coming off a five-year bear market.....
It’s down 36% from its 2011 high. But as we mentioned earlier, gold has taken off this year. In case you missed it, Casey Research founder Doug Casey recently wrote an essay explaining why gold could easily triple. You can read it here.

There’s more risk than opportunity in U.S. stocks right now.....
The S&P 500 has climbed 205% since March 2009. That’s far more than the average gain of 136% for U.S. bull markets since 1932. The S&P 500 is also 56% more expensive than its historic average, according to the long term CAPE valuation ratio. U.S. stocks have only been more expensive three times in history: before the Great Depression...during the dot-com bubble...and leading up to the 2008 financial crisis.

Investors who buy U.S. stocks today are betting that the market keeps breaking records. That’s not a gamble we want to make. On top of owning gold, we encourage you to set aside cash. This will help you avoid major losses should U.S. stocks fall. And it will put you in a position to buy stocks when they get cheaper.

You could also make money “shorting” one of America’s most vulnerable industries.....
“Shorting” a stock is betting that it will go down. E.B. Tucker, editor of The Casey Report, recently recommended shorting a major American airline.The airline industry has been booming since the 2008–2009 financial crisis. But E.B. thinks the good times are coming to an end. In short, E.B. thinks the industry boomed on cheap credit, and that it will suffer huge losses when the easy money stops flowing.

E.B is targeting the most vulnerable U.S. airline. The company’s stock has surged an incredible 1,600% since March 2009. That’s eight times the return of the S&P 500. But like most stocks, it’s gone nowhere this year. It hasn’t set a new high since May. E.B. thinks this stock could plunge more than 50%. You can get in on this trade by signing up for The Casey Report. Click here to begin your risk-free trial.

Chart of the Day

Investors have turned bearish on biotech stocks. Today’s chart shows the performance of the iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB), which tracks 189 biotechnology companies. Biotech companies develop or manufacture new drugs. Some of these companies are trying to cure diseases like cancer, HIV, and Alzheimer’s. Because a successful new drug can be worth billions of dollars, biotech stocks can soar hundreds of percent in short periods.

But they are also very risky. Most young biotech companies only have one or two products. And many biotech companies don’t make any money. Biotechs are the type of stocks investors like to own in a strong bull market. Between March 2009 and July 2015, IBB surged 574%. The S&P 500 gained 215% over that time. Since July, IBB has plunged 34%. It’s trading at its lowest price since October 2014.
The selloff in risky biotech stocks is more proof that investors have gone on the defensive.



Get our latest FREE eBook "The Rebel's Guide to Trading Options"....Just Click Here!


Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Believe It or Not, It’s Happening to Gold

Last night as I was going over my charts and running my end of the day analysis the charts jumped out at me with a trade setup and wanted to share my cycle chart for gold with you. The price chart of gold below is exactly what my cycle analysis told us to look for last week WELL ahead of the today’s news and its things play out I as I feel they will then we stand to make some pretty good money as gold falls in value during the month of April.

If you have been following my work for any length of time then you know big price movements in the market like today (Tuesday, March 29th) based around the FED news ARE NOT and SHOULD NOT be of any surprise. In fact, this charts told use about today’s pop 2 weeks ago and we have been waiting for it ever since. The news is simply the best way to get the masses on board with market moves and gets them on the wrong side of the market before it makes a big move in the other direction, most times… not always, though.

Take a look at this chart below. You’ll see two cycle indicators, one pink and one blue. The pink cycle line is a cluster of various cycles blended together which allows us to view the overall market trend of biased looking forward 5 – 30 days. The blue cycle line is a cluster of much shorter time frame cycles in this tells us when we should expect strong moves in the same direction of the pink cycles or counter trend pullbacks within the trend.

One quick point to note with cycle trading is that the height and depth of the cycle does not mean the price will rise or fall to those levels, it simply tells us if the market has an upward or downward bias. The current cycle analysis for gold along with the current price is telling us that today the short term cycle topped which is the blue line and our main trend cycle is already heading lower. The odds favor gold should roll over and make new multi-month Lows in August.
gold-collapse

In short, we have been waiting for gold to have a technical breakdown and to retrace back up into a short term overbought condition. Today Tuesday, March 29 it looks as though we finally have the setup. Over the next 5 to 15 days I expect gold to drop along with silver and gold stocks. There are many ways to play this through inverse exchange traded funds or short selling gold, silver or gold stocks.

This year and 2017 I believe are going to be incredible years for both traders and investors. If treated correctly, it can be a life changing experience financially for some individuals. Join my pre-market video newsletter and start your day with a hot cup of coffee and my market forecast video.

Sign up right here > www.The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen


Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, March 28, 2016

This Weeks Webinar: Don Kaufman's "No BS Guide to Making Money Trading"

Our trading partner Don Kaufman is back this week with another great free webinar on Tuesday evening at 8 p.m. est. And Don is cutting through the BS....literally. He is calling this weeks live presentation a “No BS Guide to Making Money Trading”.

Get Your Reserved Spot Here and Now

During this free webinar you will learn....
  • Why options are NOT all about market direction and timing. How you can give yourself the gift of time without paying extra so you can give your trade as much time as it needs
  • Why volatility is not the account killer the media portrays it to be. How you can create a trade with zero exposure to volatility so you never have to worry about volatility again.
  • The myth that options are risky. How you can set your limited risk before you put on the trade so you know exactly what you're risking. Making this strategy the safest way to trade.
  • Why you don't need a lot of money to trade. How you can generate big returns from small moves in a stock
  • How you can use this strategy whether you have a $2,000 account or a 6 figure account
As always make sure you log in early so you don't lose your reserved spot since Don is limiting seating to this free presentation.

Sign up Right Here, Right Now

What time for you?

8 p.m. New York Time
7 p.m. Central Time
6 p.m. Mountain Time
5 p.m. Pacific Time

Bonus: All attendees receive "TheoNight" - the only free daily video newsletter of it's kind with trade ideas ideas

See you Tuesday night!
Ray C. Parrish



Get Don's latest FREE eBook "The Rebel's Guide to Trading Options"....Just Click Here!




Don Kaufman

Monday, March 21, 2016

Crude Oil Retesting $30 Dollars or Lower?

Recently, Light Crude has seen a dramatic 35%+ increase in value.  As the current price continue to flirt with $40 per barrel, the likelihood of a further price rise is on everyone’s mind.  With recent lows near $26 per barrel, what is the possibility that oil will form a base above $30 and attempt a rally?
Historically, the 2009 low price for oil was $33.20.  This level should be viewed as a key level of support for current price action.  The recent price rotation below this level is a sign that oil prices are under extreme pressure in the current economic environment with a supply glut and slower than expected demand.
It is my opinion that the price of oil will continue to reflect the supply/demand aspects of the global markets in relation to global economic activity.  Thus, my analysis is that Oil will likely attempt to retest support, near $30 or below, in the immediate future in direct relation to continued supply production in conjunction with slower global demand.
(Baltic Dry Index Chart – LongTerm)

The BDI Index continues to attempt to push to new lows.  This is a strong indication that global exports and international demand from consumers and business is continuing to diminish.

oila

Crude Oil Analysis & Trade Signals: www.The Gold & Oil Guy.com
(DOWT – Transportation Chart)

Even though the DOW Transportation Index has risen recently, the current direction is decisively bearish in indicates the next level of support is near 6265 – clearly 1400 points below current levels.

oilb

(Baltic Dry Index Recent)

The longer the BDI continues to push to new lows, the more likely we are to see continued contraction in demand for commodities and global exports.  Thus, with the continued supply production throughout the globe and continued global contraction, one could expect that Oil prices will continue to be under pressure globally.

oilc
The simple mechanics of the equation are that certain ME and foreign countries require continued income from oil production/sales.  As the continued decline in Oil prices creates economic pressure, these countries have little alternative but to continue producing and selling as any price to feed their need for dollars.  This creates a mechanism that propels a vicious cycle or over production and sales in an attempt to generate dollars that are desperately needs to fund a relatively mature economy.
As all things are in a constant state of flux, it become important to understand that price rotation in the Oil market will likely continue between $28 and $42 for a period of time.  This is really a traders market in the sense that a nearly rotation level this large, in percentage relation, is available for all traders.  Be cautious of rallies as they may be short-lived. I expect a number of weeks of rotation near $36 ppb followed by a lower price rotation back to near $25 ppb between April 5th and May 5th.
After that price rotation lower, then I expect one of two targets to be tested, $21 ppb or $37 ppb.  It all depends on how the global markets are performing in a month or two.
(CL Chart)

oild
(XOI Chart)

oile
Right now, expect continued price rotation between $42 ppb and $28 ppb till shortly after April 5th.  Then expect much larger price rotation till after May 5th.  At that point, we’ll have to see how the global economic factors are playing out to make further price expectations.
I expect there to be some big trades around crude oil for both short term swing trades and long term trend trades but the market just is not yet here.

Learn & Trade With My Daily Video Analysis & Trades, visit www.The Gold & Oil Guy.com


Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Bursting the Biggest Myths in Trading - Don Kaufman's Next Webinar

Our trading partner Don Kaufman is treating us to a free trading webinar this Tuesday evening March 29th at 8 p.m. est. Don't put off reserving your spot since Don and his team are only opening up this up for 1,000 traders.

Reserve Your Spot Here

During this free webinar Don will cover....
  • How you can give yourself the gift of time without paying extra so you can give your trade as much time as it needs
  • How you can create a trade with zero exposure to volatility so you never have to worry about volatility again 
  • How you can set your limited risk before you put on the trade so you know exactly what you're risking. Making this strategy the safest way to trade. So much for the myth that options are risky.
  • How you can generate big returns from small moves in a stock
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See you Tuesday night!
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader



Don Kaufman


Saturday, March 19, 2016

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Coffee, Sugar

It's Saturday and that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. 

Crude oil futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 38.50 a barrel while currently trading 40.65 up over $2 for the trading week now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average for the first time in 6 months. The selloff in the U.S dollar has pushed up oil prices tremendously over the last several weeks. Oil prices are trading higher for the 3rd consecutive day; however this rally has been based on very low volume which is a little concerning as I'm sitting on the sidelines in this market as I have missed the rally to the upside. The U.S dollar has hit a 6 month low and that has propped up many commodity prices and especially crude oil as gasoline and heating oil also have rallied substantially. You will notice this at your local gas station as you are paying much more than you were just three or four weeks ago as the tide has turned in the commodity markets. Rumors are circulating that Saudi Arabia is going to urge OPEC to start cutting production, therefore, pushing up prices even higher as their economy is struggling due to low prices. However, the chart structure is poor and sometimes you miss trades as this did not meet criteria to enter into and that's exactly what happened to me, as I am leery of this market in 42/45 level as I assume production will come back onto the table because of higher prices.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Natural gas futures in the April contract is now trading above its 20 day, but still below its 100 day moving average settling last Friday in New York at 182 while currently trading at 194. I was recommending a short position getting stopped out earlier in the week as now I'm currently sitting on the sidelines. Natural gas prices are trading at a 4 week high. However, the chart structure is poor meaning that the 10 day low it's too far away to meet my criteria to enter into a new trade so keep a close eye on this market as we could get involved to the upside soon. The fundamentals remain bearish. However, that has already been reflected in the price as supplies are huge at the present time, but the bearish short term trend has ended in my opinion. The energy sector has caught fire over the last several weeks as crude oil is now trading at 42 a barrel which has also supported gas prices in the short term, but look at other markets that are beginning to trend with higher potential.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,259 an ounce while currently trading at 1,254 down slightly for the trading week in a very highly volatile trading manner as prices reacted sharply to the upside off of the Federal Reserve statement of not raising interest rates sending prices up over $40 in Thursday's trade. At the current time, I'm sitting on the sidelines in this market as I have missed the upside. However, I am not bullish gold at this price level as I think prices are topping out. However I'm not recommending a short position, but if you believe my opinion, I would sell a mini contract while placing the stop loss above the most recent high of 1,287 risking $30 or $1,000 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. Negative interest rates throughout the world have spooked investors back into the gold market as commodities, in general, have rallied as a whole. However, I remain bullish the stock market which continues to move higher as I think money flows will come out of the precious metals here in the short term. Remember when trading commodities it’s all based on risk as the risk/reward on the short side I think is in your favor, but it does not meet my criteria for an official entry into a new trade which has to be a 4 week low, but decide for yourself what's best for your trading account.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Coffee futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 125.80 a pound while currently trading at 134.50 trading higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session up around 900 points for the trading week hitting a 5 month high. I've been recommending a bullish position from around the 121.50 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss below the 10 day low which currently stands at 119 as the chart structure is terrible at the present time due to the fact that coffee prices have exploded to the upside over the last week. The commodity markets, in general, have rallied substantially due to the fact that the U.S dollar has hit a 6 month low and it certainly looks to me that the bear markets are over with in the short term. However, if you have missed this trade the risk/reward is not your favor at the current time as you missed the boat so you must look at other markets that are beginning to trend. The next major level of resistance is the October high around 142 as I think prices could test that level next week as coffee prices are still cheap in my opinion as demand currently is strong. At the current time, I'm recommending a bullish position in cocoa and coffee as the soft commodity markets have certainly caught fire recently including the sugar market so start looking at the commodities to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.13 a pound while currently trading at 15.86 continuing its remarkable bullish run to the upside hitting a 14 month high as I'm sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure has not met my criteria towards entering into the trade. However, I'm certainly not recommending any type of short position as it looks to me that prices are headed even higher. Sugar futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the upside as the commodity markets have caught fire as who knows how high sugar prices can actually go as production cuts throughout major growing regions throughout the world are causing concerns about carryover levels pushing prices up tremendously over the last 3 weeks. Remember when you trade commodities the trend is your friend and trading with the path of least resistance is the most successful way to trade in my opinion over the course of time so do not sell sugar at this point, but if you have missed this trade sit on the sidelines and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the horse has left the barn in this market in the short term.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Friday, March 18, 2016

Gold and Oil Are Soaring…Justin says There is Only One You Should Buy

By Justin Spittler

Gold had a HUGE day yesterday. The price of gold jumped 2.5% to $1,263/oz. Gold is this year’s top performing asset. With a 19% gain since January, it’s off to its best start to a year since 1974, according to Bloomberg Business.

Casey Research founder Doug Casey thinks this is just the beginning.....
In case you missed it yesterday, Doug explained why gold is set to rise at least 200%...and possibly even 400% or 500%. It’s a “must-read” essay, especially if you’re worried about the fragile stock market, slowing economy, or reckless governments.

In short, Doug believes the government has set us up for a crisis that “will in many ways dwarf the Great Depression.” And Doug expects the coming economic disaster to ignite a historic gold bull market.
When people wake up and realize that most banks and governments are bankrupt, they’ll flock to gold…just as they’ve done for centuries. Gold will rise multiples of its current value. I expect a 200% rise from current levels, at the minimum. There are many reasons, which we don’t have room to cover here, why gold could see a 400% or 500% gain.

Gold stocks will soar even higher.....
Longtime readers know gold stocks offer leverage to the price of gold. A 200% jump in the price of gold could cause gold stocks to spike 400%...600%...or more. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which tracks large gold miners, has soared 52% this year. Yesterday, it closed at its highest level since February 2015.

But gold stocks are still extremely cheap..…
Doug is loading up on gold stocks right now.
Right now gold stocks are near a historic low. I’m buying them aggressively. At this point, it’s possible that the shares of a quality exploration company or a quality development company (i.e., one that has found a deposit and is advancing it toward production) could still go down 10, 20, 30, or even 50 percent. But there’s an excellent chance that the same stock will go up by 10, 50, or even 100 times.

If you’re interested in multiplying your money by 5x or 10x in the coming gold “mania,” now is the time to take a position in gold stocks. The window of opportunity won’t stay open long. As Doug said, gold stocks will skyrocket once people realize the financial system is doomed. Because this window of opportunity is small, we’re currently running a special $500 discount on our service that recommends gold stocks, International Speculator. Click here to learn more.

Crude Oil is also soaring.....
As Dispatch readers know, there’s been nothing but bad news in the oil sector for nearly two years. The price of oil crashed 75%. Two months ago, it hit its lowest price since 2003. But since then, oil has climbed 36%. It jumped 5.1% yesterday. Why the big reversal? We’ll get to that in a second. First, let’s recap the recent disaster in the oil industry.

The world has too much oil.....
From 1998 to 2008, the price of oil surged more than 1,200%. Last year, U.S. oil production surged to the highest level since the 1970s. Global output also reached record highs. High prices encouraged innovation. Oil companies developed new methods, like “fracking.” This unlocked billions of barrels of oil that were once impossible to extract from shale regions. Today, the global economy produces more oil than it consumes. Each day, oil companies produce about 1.9 million more barrels than the world needs.

Crude Oil companies have slashed spending to cope with low prices.....
They’ve sold assets, abandoned billion dollar projects, cut their dividends and laid off more than 250,000 workers since June 2014. According to investment bank Barclays, oil and gas producers cut spending by 23% last year. Barclays expects spending to fall another 15% in 2016. This would be the first time in two decades the industry has cut spending two years in a row. Last week, the number of U.S. rigs actively pumping oil and natural gas plummeted to its lowest level in 70 years.

With oil prices rising, many U.S. companies can’t bring rigs back online fast enough.....
They don’t have enough workers or equipment after all the spending cuts. The Wall Street Journal reports:
Some of the largest U.S. oilfield services firms have laid off 110,000 people in the past year, Evercore ISI analysts estimate, and many of those workers have no plans to return to the industry.
Close to 60% of the fracking equipment in the U.S. has been idled during the downturn, according to IHS Energy, which estimates it would take two months for some of that equipment to return.

The Wall Street Journal continues:
Still, even if prices return to levels where shale drillers can make money again, many companies are vowing to be cautious. Some are tempered by what occurred last spring, when producers jumped back into drilling new wells after oil prices briefly hit $60 a barrel, inadvertently worsening a supply glut that ultimately made prices worse.

This is a dramatic shift in thinking by the industry.....
Oil companies had been pumping near-record amounts of oil for almost two years, despite low prices. Many companies had no choice. When all your revenue comes from selling oil, you have to keep pumping and selling oil. Companies could either sell oil for cheap or go out of business.

With fewer rigs pumping oil today, oil prices are climbing..…
Still, the oil crisis is far from over. Even with the recent rally, the price of oil is 65% below its 2014 high. It’s trading around $38 a barrel. Many companies won’t earn a profit unless oil gets back to $50. According to The Wall Street Journal, one-third of U.S. oil producers could go bankrupt this year. A wave of bankruptcies would likely trigger another leg down in oil stocks.

The oil market is highly cyclical.....
It goes through big booms and busts. Today, the industry is going through its worst bust in decades. It will boom again...but not until the world works off its massive oversupply of oil. According to the International Energy Agency, the oil surplus could last into 2017.

Last month, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, and Venezuela agreed to cap oil output.....
Saudi Arabia and Russia are two of the world’s three largest oil-producing countries. Qatar and Venezuela are also major oil producers. These countries agreed to “freeze” their oil production at January levels. They quickly broke the agreement. On Monday, CNN Money reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia actually boosted output last month. Both countries are pumping record amounts of oil. They don’t have much choice. Oil makes up 80% of Saudi Arabia’s exports. It accounts for 52% of Russia’s exports.

Nick Giambruno, editor of Crisis Investing, doesn’t think Saudi Arabia will survive the crisis.....

But he says the U.S. shale industry will survive.
By keeping the market saturated with oil, the Saudis are driving down the price. They hope to drive it down low enough and long enough to bankrupt the shale industry…since shale oil costs more than Saudi oil to produce. The U.S. shale industry is a major source of competition.

In the 1990s, the U.S. imported close to 25% of its oil from Saudi Arabia. Today—because of high U.S. shale oil production—the U.S. imports only 5%. The Saudis are having some success. In the past year, at least 67 U.S. oil companies have filed for bankruptcy. Analysts estimate as many as 150 could follow. The shale oil industry is in ‘survival mode.’

The Saudis have damaged the U.S. shale oil industry. And they’ll continue to cause more damage. But they won’t bankrupt every producer. The shale industry has more staying power than Saudi Arabia. Some producers now say they’re profitable with $40 oil. And their pace of innovation will drive that even lower. The industry will survive.
The Saudis are playing a dangerous game.
If the Saudis don’t stop flooding the market—and there are no signs they will—they won’t be shooting themselves in the foot…but in the head. Saudi Arabia will either collapse or surrender—and stop flooding the market. Either way, oil will eventually go a lot higher.
Shale oil stocks are a train wreck right now. Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), the largest shale oil producer, is down 30% since June 2014. EOG Resources Inc. (EOG), the second-largest shale oil producer, is down 35%.

Nick sees huge opportunity here. He often reminds readers that a crisis is the only time you can buy a dollar’s worth of assets for a dime or less. And shale oil stocks are in a major crisis right now. Nick has already picked out a “best of breed” U.S. shale oil company. But before pulling the trigger, Nick is waiting for the Saudi government to show signs of cracking. The point of maximum pessimism will present a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to pick up this shale company at an absurdly cheap price.

You can get in on this opportunity by signing up for Crisis Investing. Click here to begin your 90-day risk-free trial.

Chart of the Day

Oil is still near its lowest level in years. As we mentioned earlier, oil has rallied 36% over the past few weeks. That’s a big jump in a short period. But oil isn’t in the clear yet.  Today’s chart shows the performance of oil since 2014. You can see that the price of oil is still well below its 2014 high. It’s trading at prices last seen during the last financial crisis. Many oil companies can’t survive with current oil prices. Some will go out of business. And a wave of bankruptcies will likely spark another leg down in oil stocks. We recommend avoiding oil stocks for now.



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