Monday, December 31, 2018

Silver Starts a Breakout Move Higher

Watch Silver, folks. This quiet shiny metal is starting a move that could be very foretelling of global market concerns and risks. Early on December 26, 2018, Silver broke through recent resistance, to the upside, with a relatively large 2.8%+ upside move. Why is this so important to traders? Because Silver is the “sleeper metal” that is typically the last to react to global economic concerns. Once Silver starts to move to the upside with a renewed bullish trend, we believe this move would indicate that bigger players are starting to accumulate Silver as a safe haven for future economic concerns/crisis events.

This Daily chart of Silver shows the December 26 upside breakout move. We can clearly see the breakout above $15.00 and the historical resistance just below $15.00. This move is extremely important in the context of the total risk play that has recently played out through the past two months. Take a look as how quiet the Silver market has been over the past few months. Take a look at how Silver reacted only moderately to the recent market selloff and Fed statements. There was no real “fear” exhibited in the metals markets or in Silver over the past 60+ days. Yet, today, there is some real fear that is playing out in the price of Silver.

This next Weekly Silver chart helps us to understand the total scope of this move and what we could expect to see as an immediate upside price target. Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price modeling system is suggesting that $16.00 is an immediate upside price target and is showing us the current trend is bullish and that price volatility is increasing. Overall, we could see a move well above $17.00 on an extended run in the metals.

Watch how this “sleeper metal” plays out over the next few weeks and months. This upside breakout is very important to investors for the simple reason that it indicates a renewed level of “fear” is entering the markets and we could be starting a very big upside move in the metals markets again. The last time Silver entered a massive bullish phase it shot up over 400%. If a similar move happens again in the near future, Silver could reach a price level near $60-65 per ounce.

Want to know how to position your investments to take advantage of these types of moves and learn how to capture greater opportunities in the markets? 2019 is setting up to be an incredible year for traders with the skills and insight to find and execute these types of trades. We have already been positioning our members for this move and we believe 2019 will provide incredible opportunities for all skilled traders. Take a minute to visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you in 2019 and join our other members in finding greater success.

Check Out Our Trading Strategy Mastery 3 Hour Video Course....Right Here

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Has This Selloff Reached a Bottom Yet?

Everyone wants to know if this selloff has reached a low or bottom yet and what to expect over the next 30 - 60+ days. Since October, the U.S. stock market has reacted to the U.S. Fed raising rates above 2.0% with dramatic downward price moves. The latest raise by the U.S. Fed resulted in a very clear price decline in the markets illustrating the fact that investors don’t expect the markets to recover based on the current geopolitical and economic climate.

Over 5 years ago, our research team developed a financial modeling system that attempted to model the U.S. Fed Funds Rate optimal levels given certain inputs (US GDP, US Population, U.S. Debt, and others). The effort by our team of researchers was to attempt to identify where and when the U.S. Fed should be adjusting rates and when and where the U.S. Fed would make a mistake. The basic premise of our modeling system is that as long as Fed keeps rates within our model’s optimal output parameters, the U.S. (and presumably global) economy should continue to operate without massive disruption events unless some outside event (think Europe, China or another massive economic collapse) disrupts the ability of the U.S. economy from operating efficiently. We’ve included a screen capture of the current FFR modeling results below.

This model operates on the premise that U.S. debt, population, and GDP will continue to increase at similar levels to 2004-2012. We can see that our model predicted that the U.S. Fed should have begun raising rates in 2013-2014 and continued to push rates above 1.25% before the end of 2015. Then, the U.S. Fed should have raised rates gradually to near 2.0% by 2017-2018 – never breaching the 2.1250% level. Our model expects the U.S. Fed to decrease rates to near 1.4 - 1.5% in early 2019 and for rates to rotate between 1.25%~2.0% between now and 2020. Eventually, after 2021, our model expects the US Fed to begin to normalize rates near 1.5-1.75% for an extended period of time.

Additionally, our Custom Market Cap index has reached a very low level (historically extremely low) and is likely to result in a major price bottom formation or, at least, a pause in this downward price move that may result in some renewed forward optimism going forward. Although we would like to be able to announce that the market has reached a major price bottom and that we are “calling a bottom” in this move, we simply can’t call this as a bottom yet. We have to wait to see if and when the markets confirm a price bottom before we can’t attempt any real call in the markets. You can see from our Custom Market Cap Index that the index level is very near historically low levels (below $4.00 – near the RED line) and that these levels have resulted in major price low points historically. We are expecting the price to pause over the next week or so near these $3.50 levels and attempt to set up a rotational support level before attempting another price swing. As of right now, we believe there is fairly strong opportunity for a price bottom to set up, yet these are still very early indicators of a major price bottom and we can’t actually call a bottom yet. If our Custom Market Cap Index does as it has in the past, then we are very close to a bottom formation in the US markets and traders would be wise to wait for technical confirmation of this bottom before jumping into any aggressive long trades.

Lastly, our Custom Global Market Cap Index has also reached levels near the lower deviation channel range over the past 7+ years, which adds further confidence that a potential price bottom may be near to forming in the US markets. As we can see from the chart below, the recent selloff has pushed our Global Market Cap Index to very low levels – from near $198 to near $144; a -27.55% total price decline. Nearing these low levels, we should expect the global markets to attempt to find some support and to potentially hammer out a bottom, yet we are still cautious that this downward price move could breach existing support levels and push even further in to bear market territory.

There are early warning signs that the market may be attempting to form a market bottom and our research team is scanning every available tool we have at out disposal to attempt to assist all of our members and followers. We alerted you to this move back on September 17, 2018 with our ADL predictive modeling system call for a -5 - 8%+ market correction. Little did we know that the U.S. Fed would blow the bottom out of the markets with their push to raise rates above the 2.0% level.

As the U.S. Fed has already breached our Fed Modeling Systems suggested rate levels, the global markets will be attempting to identify key price support in relation to this new pricing pressure and the expectations that debt/credit issues will become more pronounced as rates push higher. In other words, the global markets are attempting to price in the renewed uncertainty that relates to the U.S. Fed pushing rates beyond optimal levels. We expect the markets are close to finding true support near the levels we’ve shown on our Custom Index charts, yet we still need confirmation before we can call it a bottom.

We will continue to update you with our research and analysis as this move plays out and we hope you were able to follow our analysis regarding the Metals, Oil, Energy and other sectors that called many of these massive price swings. We pride ourselves on our analysis and ability to use our proprietary tools to find and execute successful trades for our members. Our ADL predictive price modeling system is still suggesting an upward price move is in the works for the U.S. markets and we are waiting for our “ultimate low price” level to be reached before we expect an upside leg to drive prices higher again. Based on our current research, we may be nearing the point where the markets attempt to hammer out a price bottom – yet time will tell if this is the correct analysis.

Please take a minute to visit The Technical Traders to learn how we help our members find and execute better trades. Recent swings in the markets have made it much more difficult for average traders to find and execute successful short term trades. Learn how we can help you find greater success and read some of our recent research posts by visiting our Free Research section of the Technical Traders.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, December 24, 2018

The SP500 Breaks 2018 February Lows - What Next?

The ES (S&P e-mini contracts) broke the support level from the February 2018 lows immediately after the US Federal Reserve announced a 25 bp rate hike this week. This breakdown below the February 2018 lows is concerning because it indicates that previous support is not holding and we could be in for further downside price activity.

We are preparing a detailed research post for early next week regarding a broad range of US markets as well as how our proprietary price modeling systems are reflecting this recent price move. What we can suggest to all investors is play small positions at the moment and prepare for increased volatility. There is near term support that may come into play soon, but overall the markets are reacting to a deleveraging event that could see prices push below 2400 before finding true support.

Visit The Technical Traders to read all of our recent research posts and see what we believe will be the big movers in 2019.

Chris Vermeulen

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Natural Gas Breaks Lower Towards Our $3.00 Target

Just about seven days ago we alerted all of our followers to a massive breakdown move that was about to unfold in Natural Gas. At that time, we predicted the price of Natural Gas would break below $4.30 and fall quickly towards the $3.00 - 3.20 level. Taking a look at that call now, with the price below $3.60, it seems our analysis was perfectly timed.

This Daily Natural Gas chart highlighting our predictive Fibonacci price modeling system shows the downside price targets that are waiting to confirm price support and a potential “deep V bottom formation”. If you recall from our earlier research, we believe this downside move will end rather quickly with a deep V type of price bottom setting up near the end of 2018. This means we expect the price of Natural Gas to begin to rally into 2019 after reaching the $3.00 - 3.20 level soon.

This is an incredible move for skilled traders. We are watching a $2.50 price move in Natural Gas unfold right before our eyes – and it appears this rotation will complete before the end of February 2019. -$1.40 to the downside, then +1.20 to the upside. Just follow the predictive modeling systems and ride it out.

We’ll alert you when the bottom sets up and when the upside move it about to unfold, but for now, we are watching for NG to move into the support zone (near $3.20). Once that level is reached, a technical price bottom should start to set up and the new rally back towards $4.00 will likely start in early January 2019.

Want to learn how our advanced price modeling tools can make calls like this weeks and months in advance? Visit The Technical Traders to learn about our research, services, daily videos, and more solutions to help skilled traders stay ahead of these market moves. Our advanced predictive modeling solutions and years of market research provide our members with a clear advantage you won’t find anywhere else.

Consider joining our services as a Christmas Gift to yourself!

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Natural Gas Setup For a Big Move Lower

Our proprietary Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting Natural Gas is about to break down below the $4.30 level and move aggressively toward the $3.05 - 3.25 level. This could be an incredible move for energy traders and a complete bust for existing longs.

This Weekly Natural Gas chart is showing our Fibonacci Predictive modeling system and highlighting the lower support price targets just above $3.00. We believe price weakness will break the $4.30 level very quickly and drive prices well below the $3.40 level – very likely towards support near $3.25 over the next few weeks.

Our Advanced Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive price modeling system is showing similar results. It suggests a major price anomaly is setting up in Natural Gas that will prompt a massive downside price move over the next 2 - 3 weeks before an equally incredible price recovery takes place. The total of this predicted price swing is nearly $2.00 ($1.00 down and then $0.85 back to the upside). If this move takes place as our modeling systems are suggesting, this will drive a massive “washout move” pushing the long traders out of their positions on the way down and then pushing a massive short squeeze on the way back up to near $4.00.

This is the type of price swing that makes for incredible success stories if traders can play this move properly. Pay attention to the fact that the lower predicted levels of our ADL system (shown near $3.20) may not be reached in this downward price swing. Our predictive modeling system is suggesting these are the highest probability price outcome based on its internal price and technical analysis. Still, when one takes a good hard look at this chart, it is easy to see the “price anomaly” setup where the current price of Natural Gas is nearly $0.80 above the currently predicted price levels (shown as YELLOW DASHES) and how the ADL Predictive modeling system is suggesting a big downward move is about to unfold.

Want to keep receiving incredible trade setups like this one and learn how our research team and specialized price modeling systems can help you find and execute better trades? Then please visit Technical Traders Ltd. to learn more about our services and tools. We have been helping traders find and execute better educated trading decisions with our specialized tools and research for years. Visit The Technical Traders Free Research to read all of our most recent public research posts and to see how we’ve been calling these market moves over the past few months.

Chris Vermeulen

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, December 10, 2018

Is a Deleveraging Event About to Unfold in the Stock Market?

As 2018 draws to a close and the global equities markets continue to find pricing and valuation pressures driving prices lower, a few questions come to mind for all investors/traders – Is a deleveraging event about to unfold? What will it look like if it does happen and how can I protect my investments from such an event? This research article is going to help you answer those questions and should help to resolve any lingering questions you may have regarding the true nature of this market rotation and volatility.

Our research team at The Technical Traders has been digging through the data and charts in an attempt to identify key elements of this recent price move. We are starting with our Monthly Adaptive Dynamic Learning Cycles chart of the ES (E-mini S&P). As you can see from this chart, our ADL Cycles modeling system is showing a deep downside price rotation is likely to unfold over the next 8 - 12 months. One thing to remember about this chart is that these cycles and the width of the future cycle peaks and troughs are NOT indicative of price target levels. Therefore, this downside move is NOT suspected of reaching price lows near 1000 or 1200. These cycles are representative of a magnitude of cycle events. In other words, this current cycle, downward, is expected to be a major cycle event that establishes a major price bottom somewhere near the end of 2019 or early 2020.

We urge traders to understand the scope of this cycle event. Look at the previous cycle events on this chart. Numerous downside cycle events have taken place over the past 10+ years that represent somewhat similar down cycle price moves. The most recent was in 2015 - 2016. This event represented a moderately deep down cycle even that equated to a 300 - 400 point price rotation in the ES. If the current cycle event is relative in scope to the last, then this current down-cycle event will likely result in a 600 - 800 point price rotation, and we have already experienced a nearly 300 point rotation in the ES. This would suggest a potential price bottom near 2100 - 2300 on the ES if the scale and scope of the current cycle event are relative to the previous down cycle event.

This next chart highlights key time/price cycles on the SPY Monthly chart to help us keep the timing of these events in perspective. As we have suggested, above, a major down cycle even may be unfolding that results in a deleveraging even across the global markets. If this does, in fact, take place, there are a number of elements that will likely play out. First, currencies will fluctuate dramatically as deleveraging takes root. Capital will seek out and identify the safest and most suitable returns by rushing away from risky markets and into safer markets. Additionally, a prolonged deleveraging of global equities may take place where valuations are reduced as capital attempts to establish a balance between expectations and true market value. Overall, this is a very healthy event for the markets as long as it does not result in a total collapse of price, as we saw in 2008-09.

This SPY chart highlights three key components of the markets current setup. First, the RED LINE (a 2.618 Fibonacci extension from the 2015 - 2016 price rotation at $266.50) is acting like a strong support level in the markets. This level, along with the 2018 lows near $254.78, are important levels that we are watching to determine if any further downside price activity is unfolding. As long as these two levels are not breached to the downside, we can confidently say that the upside trend is still intact. Second, the two BLUE price channels, which originate from the 2009 market bottom, establish a powerful upside price channel that will act as critical support should price reach near the lower level of this channel. This means that any downside price rotation will likely find solid support near $232.00 or higher. Lastly, the vertical time/price series cycles are suggesting that May and Oct of 2019 are likely to prompt significant price reversal patterns/setups. This helps us to understand that any potential breakout moves (up or down) will likely reach some critical inflection point, or reversal points, near May and October of 2019.

Next, we fall back to our Custom US Market Index chart on a Monthly basis. This chart, again, shows the support level originating from the lows of 2009 in a heavy BLUE line as well as two price channel levels that represent current price ranges. The first thing we want you to focus on is the breadth of the current rotation within the regression channel on this chart (the red/blue shorter price channel). Currently, the price is within this standard regression channel and has yet to break the longer-term, more aggressive, upward price channel. Additionally, we can see from this chart that the recent price activity is still measurably above the 2018 price lows near 374.12. Secondly, the Pitchfork channel, originating from the 2009 lows and spanning the range of the 2015 - 2016 price rotation, provides additional confirmation that we are still well above the middle and lower areas of this price channel. Even if the current price did fall by another 4 - 8%, the price would still be within the normal channel levels of this extended upside price channel.

So, when we consider the scale and scope of this current downside price rotation, we have to be very aware of the real expectations of the market. Yes, it looks frightening when we see it on a Daily or Weekly chart. But when we consider the real reality of the long term perspective, we can begin to understand how the price is reacting to the recent upside acceleration since 2017.

Lastly, this Daily ES chart is showing what we believe is the most important data of all and why all traders need to understand the risks involved in this rotating market. First, this chart shows our Adaptive Dynamic Learning Fibonacci price modeling system and the results of this chart are clear to our team or researchers – although it might be a bit cluttered to you. So we’ll try to explain the basic components of this chart for you.

The heavy RED and GREEN levels that are drawn above and below the price action are the Fibonacci Price Trigger levels. These indicate where and when we would consider a new price trend to be “confirmed” As you can see, the most recent “confirmed” trigger happened on Oct 10 with a huge breakdown of price confirming a bearish price trend. Since then, these Fibonacci Price Trigger Levels have expanded outside price as volatility and price rotation has also expanded. This indicates that price will have to make a bigger push, higher or lower, to establish any new confirmed price trend based on this modeling system.

There are two heavy YELLOW lines bordering recent price rotation on this chart that help us to understand a rather wide flag/pennant formation appears to be forming within these rotation/channel levels. For example, the absolute low of the current bar touched this lower YELLOW level and rebounded to the upside very sharply. It is very likely that a washout low price pattern executed today that may provide further price support near 2626 in the ES in the immediate future. Either way, the price will have to exit this YELLOW price channel if it is going to attempt any new upside or downside price trends. As long as it stays within this channel, we have a defined range that is currently between 2626 and 2800.

Lastly, the LIGHT BLUE oblique has been our estimated critical support level in the ES since our September 17 market call that a 5 - 8% downside price rotation was about to hit the markets. This level was predicted by our ADL predictive price modeling system and has been confirmed, multiple times, by price over the past few months. It is very likely that this level will continue to act as major support going forward and will be the last level of defense if price attempts a downside price move. In other words, as we stated above, 2600 - 2680 is a very strong support range in the markets right now. Any breakdown below this level could push the markets toward the 2018 price lows (or lower). As long as this level holds, we could see continued deleveraging in the markets as US Dollar, Energy, Commodity, Currency or global market price weakness while the US markets attempt to hold above the 2018 lows.

Pay very close attention to our Fibonacci price modeling and U.S. Custom Index charts, above, because we believe these charts paint a very clear picture. Yes, a deleveraging event is likely already unfolding in the global markets. It has been taking root in various forms over the past 12+ months in all reality. The U.S. markets are continuing to shake off the downside pricing pressures that we’ve seen in other global markets, and this is likely due to the “capital shift” event that is also unfolding throughout the globe.

Our advice for active traders would be to consider drastically reducing your trading sizes as well as pare back your open long positions if you are concerned about a market breakdown. Our modeling systems are suggesting we have many months of rotation within the market to reposition and evaluate our plans for future success. Unless the 2018 lows and the multiple critical support levels we’ve highlighted are threatened, we believe this rotation is nothing more than standard price rotation with acceptable ranges (see the charts above again if you have questions). Yes, there is still concern that a price breakdown may unfold and we are certainly seeing a deleveraging event taking place. We are not calling for a price collapse at the moment, and we have explained the reasons why we believe our research is accurate.

Use the best tools you can to assist you, just as we do for our members. The only thing you can do in a situation like this is taking factual data, evaluate the true price data and make an educated and logical conclusion about the markets. If you want to learn how we help our clients find and execute better trades and how we are preparing to make 2019 an incredibly successful year with our members, then visit The Technical Traders and see what we offer our members.

Chris Vermeulen

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Renewed Economic Optimism Will Hold Metals Near Recent Lows

The U.S. stocks are already up 1.5%, and gold 1.1% or more on news originating from Argentina from the G20 meeting. The commitment from the U.S. and China to restore talks and hold off on new trade tariffs for a 90 day period of time allows the markets some breathing room and some time to digest future expectations. Combine that with the U.S. Fed talking about taking a more dovish approach to rates and that rates are near “neutral” and we have a perfect setup for the global equity markets to rally back towards recent all time highs.

This type of equity opportunity will push the metals markets towards recent price ranges/lows with almost no attempt at upward price activity. In our opinion, we are looking for the next 14 days to be quite explosive in the equities markets and quite mute in the metal’s markets.

Gold will likely stay below $1250 for the next 10 - 14 days as a renewed global equities rally takes hold. This is an excellent time to establish new long positions as our predictive modeling systems are suggesting that the metals markets should start to move higher near the end of 2018 and into early 2019.

Silver will likely stay below $14.40 for the next 10 - 14 days with the possibility of falling below $14 on a washout low price rotation near Dec 10th or 11th. This would be an excellent time to look for and set up positional long trades in metals miners or SIL in preparation for the late December and early Jan price pop that our predictive modeling system is suggesting will happen.

The initial upswing price activity in the metals will push prices above recent price peaks ($1260 for Gold and $15.00 for Silver). Our modeling systems suggest this price move will stall in late Jan 2019 and continue to stay muted till April or May of 2019. At that point, a new upside price advance will push metals prices much higher.

This may be the last time you see prices near these lows, so be aware of the risks that are ahead of the markets. Remember, the EU and the Brexit deals will likely play a role in the rise of the metals prices over the next few months, so take advantage of these setups before they vanish.

Follow our analysis to stay on the right side of this move. Our predictive modeling systems have been calling these market moves 30 - 60+ days in advance. Visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.

Chris Vermeulen

Check out Chris' 3 Hour Trading Strategy Mastery Video Course Right Here

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, November 26, 2018

Crude Oil and Bitcoin Hit New Yearly Lows

For the first time in a year WTI crude oil is traded below $54 a barrel hitting a low of $53.63. Oil fell as much as 6% as fears are surfacing that OPEC's planned production cuts will do little to stave off a surge in global stockpiles.

Bitcoin finally made a significant move to break out of the tight trading range that it had been trapped in. Unfortunately for Bitcoin bulls, it was not the move that they were looking for as it dropped almost 13% on Monday and continued lower Tuesday shedding another 4.8% to trade at the new yearly low of $4,547.00. The cryptocurrency is now down more than 60% year to date and more than 70% since its all time high. Where will it stop? $3000, $2000 or $1000?

Not to be outdone by oil and Bitcoin, stocks are all continuing the sell off that started Monday with the S&P 500 dropping 1.6%, the DOW is once again below 25k, shedding 2% and the NASDAQ is trading back below 7,000 losing 1.6%. The recent sell off has once again pushed the stock market back below the yearly open, shedding all of the gains that came with record highs earlier in the year which has driven all three indexes into correction/bear market territory. It's looking more and more like we have a good to chance to end the year lower unless we get the Santa Clause rally.

Jeremy Lutz

Gold Extends Consolidation Giving Silver Another Chance

Gold and silver exchange leading roles in the market quite often, especially on the short term charts. Last time I wrote about it silver saved gold from collapse at the start of this month. The white metal unexpectedly bounced off the earlier low reversing the drop of the yellow metal.

This time gold took the lead as its failure to break below the Bear Flag let silver lick its wounds and return above the $14 handle.

Get These Articles in Your Inbox Daily....Right Here

Both metals are still trapped in the middle of the range set by the earlier heavy drop, which first occurred in gold and then it was repeated in the silver market. In this post, I have focused on the local structure as the bigger picture remains unchanged.

The top metal couldn’t break below the trendline support of a Bear Flag (orange) and then quickly restored most of its losses coming back above $1200. It is interesting that the forecasted drop unfolded quite differently in each metal. Silver tagged the earlier trough, but gold failed even to breach the vertically sloped trendline. It looks like strong demand appeared right at the round number of the gold price in the $1200 area.

This move up could build another leg of a prolonged correction, which is labeled as third 3rd (blue line) on the chart. The target for this leg is located on the upside of the trend channel ($1260-$1270), and it perfectly matches with the earlier top established this July. It is worth to mention that the triple legged corrections are not as regular as simple AB/CD double leg moves.

Currently, gold shows signs of a minor correction, therefore, I put the Fibonacci retracement levels to highlight the area where the last move up within the 3rd leg up could emerge. This area is located between $1209 and $1213, and it coincides with the trendline support contact point.

The break below $1190 is needed to invalidate the current growth structure.

Silver has a lot of tricks on the chart, and from the very beginning of this horizontal consolidation, I was puzzled to break down the initial structure, although gold has been hinting clearly at the large consolidation in both metals. The main assistant of the trader is time, as more time passes, the chart the structure of the instrument becomes clearer.

As gold didn’t confirm the end of the consolidation, then we should consider the continuation of it for silver as well despite that it retested the earlier low to establish the fresh one at $13.88.

It looks like we got a very complex BC junction, which consists of two counter-trend moves down (small red down arrows). The complexity emerged due to the additional pro-trend (counter-trend relative to red down arrows) sub-junction (small blue up arrows), which let silver synchronize the move with gold as earlier it has been lagging. What was considered to be a second CD leg up, turned out to be a lesser degree CD leg up of a sub-junction. The complexity of the silver chart structure was caused by the unstable nature of the market demand as central banks favor gold, and only cross-market bargain hunters eliminate the excessive miscorrelation.

The second leg (CD segment) up could finally retest the $15 round level to complete this large flat correction. The minor correction that started at the end of last week already hit below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($14.21) and could dip further to the $14 round level as gold have more room down for the same minor retracement.

The drop below $13.88 would terminate this leg up.

Aibek Burabayev
Contributor, Metals

Friday, November 23, 2018

Crude Oil and Bitcoin Hit New Yearly Lows

For the first time in a year WTI crude oil is traded below $54 a barrel hitting a low of $53.63. Oil fell as much as 6% as fears are surfacing that OPEC's planned production cuts will do little to stave off a surge in global stockpiles.

Bitcoin finally made a significant move to break out of the tight trading range that it had been trapped in. Unfortunately for Bitcoin bulls, it was not the move that they were looking for as it dropped almost 13% on Monday and continued lower Tuesday shedding another 4.8% to trade at the new yearly low of $4,547.00. The cryptocurrency is now down more than 60% year to date and more than 70% since its all time high. Where will it stop? $3000, $2000 or $1000?

Not to be outdone by oil and Bitcoin, stocks are all continuing the sell off that started Monday with the S&P 500 dropping 1.6%, the DOW is once again below 25k, shedding 2% and the NASDAQ is trading back below 7,000 losing 1.6%. The recent sell off has once again pushed the stock market back below the yearly open, shedding all of the gains that came with record highs earlier in the year which has driven all three indexes into correction/bear market territory. It's looking more and more like we have a good to chance to end the year lower unless we get the Santa Clause rally.

Jeremy Lutz

Monday, November 12, 2018

Will Crude Oil Find Support Near $60 Dollars

Our research team warned of this move in crude oil back on October 7, 2018. At that time, we warned that oil may follow a historical price pattern, moving dramatically lower and that lows near $65 may become the ultimate bottom for that move. Here we are with a price below that level and many are asking “where will it go from here?”.

We believe the support near $65, although clearly broken, may eventually become resistance for a future upside price move. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a new target near $52.00 - $53.00 and we believe this downside move in crude oil is far from over at this point.

The current global climate for oil is that suppliers are pumping more and more oil into the market at a time when, historically, prices should continue to decline. One of our research tools includes the ability to identify overall bias models for each week, month or quarter. Historically, crude oil is dramatically weaker in the month of November and relatively flat for the month of December.

Analysis for the month of November = 11
    *  Total Monthly Sum : -44.52000000000001 across 36 bars

Analysis for the month of December = 12
    *  Total Monthly Sum : -0.699999999999922 across 36 bars

We believe the price of oil will continue to drift lower to target the $52.00 - $53.00 Fibonacci support level before attempting to find any real price support. This equates to an addition -6 to -8% price decline for skilled traders. We will alert you with a new research post as this downward price move continues or new research becomes available.

We have been calling these types of market moves all year and recently called the top in the U.S. equity markets nearly 40 days before it happened. Want to know what we think is going to happen for the rest of 2018 and into early 2019? Visit the Technical Traders Free Research to read all of our public research posts. Isn’t it time you invested in a team of researchers and tools to assist you in finding greater trading success?

Chris Vermeulen

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Thursday, November 8, 2018

U.S. Equities Roar to Life After Elections

Our research team is writing this message to alert all investors and traders of a pending rotation in the U.S. stock market that may happen between now and November 15th. The upside price breakout that is occurring on November 7th, the day after the US mid-term elections, is an incredible display of global investor sentiment regarding the GOP success in the Senate and the continued business friendly expectations originating out of Washington DC. The move, today, shows how clearly a global capital market shift is still engaged in the U.S. markets and how much global investors are counting on the US to drive ROI and economic growth going forward.

Yet, we feel it is important to urge investors that our modeling systems are still suggesting an ultimate price bottom should be setting up near November 8th - 15th and that we could still see a bit of downward price rotation over the next few days before this ultimate price bottom completes. It might be too easy to get caught up in this move, today, and fail to properly understand the price rotation risks that are still active in the time/price horizon.

The ES is currently +48.00 as of the creation of this post (+1.74%). This is an incredible move higher and the 2790 level becomes critical support for the markets as long as price is able to stay above that level.

The NQ is currently +172.50 (+2.45%) and shows just how clearly investors are piling into technology, healthcare and bio-tech after the US elections. This is a real vote from investors that they believe President Trump will be able to navigate any issues going forward and that the US economy will continue to push out strong numbers.

Follow our analysis to read our most recent research posts. We have already positioned our members for this “ultimate bottom” that our predictive modeling systems suggest is in the midst of forming. We called this entire downside move, bottom rotation and the ultimate bottom pattern setting up near November 12th back on September 17. If you want to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades, visit The Technical Traders to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen

Check out Chris' "Three Hour Mastery Trading Course" Right Here

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, October 29, 2018

Where's the Capitulation in Precious Metals?

Over the past 20+ years of research and trading in the markets, our team of traders and researchers know one thing is certain, when fear hits the global markets, precious metals react by rocketing higher. We’ve seen this happen over and over again – even when non-US geopolitical concerns spark some true fear in the markets.

If you’ve followed our research this week, we’ve been warning about how we believe this move is purely price and technical based and not really a fear based global price collapse. In other words, our technical systems, price modeling systems, and other advanced price analysis tools are suggesting this move is nearing an end and was likely a function of price rotation and less a function of true fear in the global markets.

Yes, there were a couple of key factors the precipitated this price move; the Fed, Earnings, Housing Data, Trade, and Geopolitical concerns and the US Elections. Yet the biggest concern for traders was the “deja vu” feeling that Housing could present another massive crash near an election. We’ve been through that and we know how ugly that can be if it were to unfold again.

Our researchers, at The Technical Traders, spent quite a bit of time going over the data and we continue to believe this downside price rotation in the global stock markets was nothing more than a technical price correction WITHOUT any real capitulation from other commodities. If the recent downside price collapse sowed any real fear into investors, then precious metals should have skyrocketed higher over the past 3+ weeks.

This Weekly Gold chart shows how prices advanced moderately over the past few weeks and failed to originate any real broad upside move as equity prices collapsed. Weeks ago, we predicted Gold would climb to near $1235, the CYAN line on this chart, before weakening to near $1200 again near the US mid term elections. After the elections, we believe that Gold will begin another price advance toward a price target near $1310 headed into 2019.

The YELLOW arrow showing the massive upside projections are based on our Fibonacci price modeling system and suggest that Gold may ultimately have an upside potential near $1435 or $1565 eventually. These upside targets, if reached, would be the result of REAL FEAR entering the global markets associated with a much greater contagion/capitulation event taking place. This may be something that happens in the future, as some point, but we don’t believe this is taking place now.

This Weekly Silver chart further illustrates the weakness in the precious metals sector throughout this recent global stock market collapse. The price of Silver actually fell slightly over the past few weeks and stayed near $14.75. A recent double bottom formation in Silver near $13.95 is a very strong indication that Silver is establishing a long-term base near the $14.00 level. You can see from our draws arrows that we believe Silver will continue to contract headed into the US mid-term elections, then begin a moderate advance higher.

We are actively searching for new trades within the precious metals sector that present clear opportunities for our members/subscribers as we believe this upside move in the metals will be one of the best trades in 2019. Although, right now, these trades are “set up trade” in the sense that we don’t expect any true fear to change price at the moment. We do expect investors to continue to look towards the precious metals markets as a form of protection from global events in the future and we believe that when the dam breaks and fear really does enter the markets, traders need to already be positioned within the precious metals sector – not chasing after the move.

Overall, our question still remains valid – where’s the capitulation in the precious metals? If this downside price movement within the global markets was “the top”, we have yet to see any real capitulation in precious metals, which we believe would be the first place to reflect this true fear. Without this capitulation, our researchers continue to believe this is a technical “reversion” move where price is moving lower to re-establish support for another upside price advance.

In conclusion, we do expect moderate price advances in the precious metals sector over the next 4~6+ months. We believe this sector will continue to attract investors as a means of protection against a sudden and more structural price collapse event in the future. Right now, though, we just don’t see the capitulation that would need to be in place if the downside equities move instilled any real fear in traders. It’s just not there – yet. Therefore, this recent downside swing appears to be a capital shift or reversion event where price will quickly attempt to find support, based (headed into the US mid-term elections – as we’ve been suggesting) and begin to move higher after November 12th.

Please visit The Technical Traders here for our Free Research to see all of our recent research posts and to help you understand what our researchers believe is really transpiring within the global markets.

Additionally, please visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades and stay ahead of these market moves. Learn how we help our subscribers by delivering specialized content, video, research, trading signals and more. The next few years are going to be full of fantastic trading opportunities. Now is the time to start to take advantage of these setups and create greater success for your future.

Chris Vermeulen

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Detailed Map of Expected Price Movement Before the Breakout

Our research team was hard at work over the past few days. Not only were they able to call this downside price swing 3+ weeks in advance, they also called the market bottom within 0.5% of the absolute lows. Now, they have put together a suggested “map” of what to expect in regards to price rotation, support, resistance and the eventual price breakout that we are expecting to happen near or after November 8~12. Today, we are sharing this detailed map with all of our followers.

Our research team, at The Technical Traders, have honed their skills over the past few decades by studying market correlations, price relationships, advanced price modeling and more. Our objective is to be able to identify price patterns, opportunities, and setups while attempting to accurately predict the future of price so that we can keep our followers and members uniquely aware of future opportunities. As you can imagine, it is not an easy job and we often take heat for some of our research posts.

Today, we are sticking out neck out (again) and attempting to predict the future of the ES price rotation as this deeper rotation continues to play out. Our research team believes it has identified key price levels and dates/times that are relevant to this future price rotation. By no means is this research set in stone in regards to exact dates/times. These are suggestions which we believe to be accurate based on our research and analysis of the markets. Use them as guides to how this price rotation plays out.

This first chart is a Daily ES chart that shows three very important components of the current market price rotation.

   *  The Support Zone below the recent lows is actually very critical to the true understanding of price rotation. As long as this support zone is not completely breached, prices should continue to push higher overall.

   *  The Rotation Zone is where we believe the price will continue to consolidate within a fairly tight range before the November 8 - 12 bottom sets up. Volatility will continue to be greater than normal throughout this Rotation Zone.

   *  The post November 8 -12 breakout is likely to attempt to target 3131 initially (a Fibonacci extension target) and we believe this move higher could explode fairly quickly.

Now that we have explained the general sense of our research, let’s dig into the numbers a bit.

Our expectation is that a price peak will occur near early morning trading on October 26 (morning session in NY). We believe this peak will end near 2830 (a Fibonacci 50% retracement level) and we believe an extended basing pattern will precede this price peak. The extended basing pattern, which is expected to end near 2770 (a Fibonacci 25% retracement level) is already starting to form and should last from now until near October 23 or 24. We believe the upside move between the end of the basing pattern and the October 26th peak will be very fast and end fairly quickly – so be prepared.

The October 26th price peak will set up a very important component of our final analysis – the peak-to-peak price channel (highlighted in YELLOW now) and will allow us to determine when and where price volatility predicts the breakout move to occur. Our research team believes another bout of extended basing will occur after the October 26th peak that will likely push just below the 2771 support levels (to near 2750) retesting the Support Zone and presenting a “false low price breakout” pattern that may sucker many longs out of the market (and potentially set up massive short seller pressures in the market). This move may be critical to the eventual upside breakout that we are predicting.

Think of it like this, Fibonacci price theory suggests that price MUST attempt to establish new higher high prices or lower low prices at all times. Failure to accomplish these new price levels results in a consolidating/congesting price trend that typically forms as Pennants or Flags in price. Near the Apex of these pennant/flag formations, false breakouts (or what we call “washout lows or highs”) are common. These are price functions that operate as a “shakeout move” where price searches for direction and where buyers and sellers are stacked on top of one another attempting to ride the next wave. Price MUST attempt to establish a new higher high or lower low – so it must attempt to rally up and break the 2945 level or it must sell off and attempt to break the 2712 level. We expect extreme volatility near or after the November 8 - 12 apex setup. Price could fall deep into the Support Zone before reversing higher with a bigger rally that attempts to run well above the 2945 level.

The vertical blue line is the November 8 date where we expect the absolute bottom to form and where we expect the next big price rally to initiate. Near after this date, we expect the price to rotate with greater volatility and attempt an upside breakout move near or after November 12. The key Fibonacci levels at 2771 & 2829 are certain to become key price rotation levels near this November 8 - 12 price breakout.

At this point, we have outlined some very detailed and structured price rotation levels that should clearly help you understand what is transpiring within the US Equities markets right now. If you take only one thing away from reading this article, please understand the Support Zone that we’ve highlighted on our charts is super critical to the ability for the US Equities markets to continue to push higher. If this level is completely breached by lower prices (prices falling all the way below these price channels on the Daily chart, above), then our predictions of price rotation, extended basing and an ultimate upside price breakout are invalid. This Support Zone MUST hold for our analysis to become valid.

This level of research and understanding as related to technical and price analysis is not something one stumbles upon blindly. This takes years of study, practice, research, and understanding to be able to “see into the future” as we do. Sure, anyone that understands basic trend lines and Fibonacci concepts can draw some lines on a chart – but their overall success rate will quickly illustrate their true understanding of the markets. Take a minute to visit the Technical Traders website and read some of our recent research posts and pay attention to how we accurately predicted a 5 - 8% price correction 3+ weeks before this recent move happened.

Ask yourself, how did we know it was going to happen and how did we know it would stop near 2700? Visit The Technical Traders "Free Research"

To read all of our recent research posts or read how we predicted this downside price move by clicking here: Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices for U.S. Elections

Chris Vermeulen

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Why the Bitcoin Breakdown May Push Prices Below $5000

Recent market turmoil across the global stock markets has refocused investors on the concerns of global economics, trade, and geopolitical issues – away from cryptocurrencies. The biggest, Bitcoin, has been under extended pricing pressure recently and our research team believes Bitcoin will breach the $6000 level to the downside fairly quickly as extended global market downtrends continue.

The premise of our analysis is simple, the factors weighing on foreign investors and Bitcoin investors are that currencies are fluctuating wildly, local stock markets are declining and local economies may be contracting. All of this operates as a means for investors to turn to a “protectionism” stance where they attempt to protect capital/cash and attempt to limit downside risks.

 The fact that Bitcoin has yet to break higher and has continued to fall under further pricing and adoption pressure means those investors that were hungry for the next great rally may be getting tired of waiting for this next move – if it ever happens. Our belief is that any downside pressure in Bitcoin below $5800 will likely push many crypto enthusiasts over the end and prompt them to sell out before prices attempt to move down further.

Our research team believes a deeper downside price rotation is setting up in Bitcoin that will push prices below the $5000 level before the end of this year. The uncertainty of the global equities markets are creating an environment where cryptos have simply lost their appeal. There has been no real substantial upside price move over the past 6+ months and the FLAG formation setting up is a very real warning sign that the eventual breakout move could be very dangerous.

Additionally, when we add our proprietary Advanced Learning Cycle system to the research, which points to much lower price rotation over the next 30+ days, we begin to see the very real possibility that Bitcoin could fall below $5000 very quickly and potentially target $4000 as an ultimate low.

As much as we would like to inform our followers that we believe Bitcoin will rally back to $18k fairly quickly, that is simply not the case. All of our indicators are suggesting that Bitcoin will fall to below $5000, and possibly towards $4000, before any real support is found. If you are a bitcoin believer, be aware that you may have a substantial opportunity to use your skills at this price swing plays out. Looking to buy back in near $4000 is much better than trying to hold for an additional $2000 loss.

Visit The Technical Traders to learn more about our research team and resources to help you become a better trader. Be prepared and build your skills to target greater success with our dedicated team. Read some of our other research to see for yourself how well we’ve been calling these recent market moves. Isn’t it time you invested in your future success?

Chris Vermeulen

Monday, October 8, 2018

Will Crude Oil Follow These Historical Patterns?

Our research team and partners at Technical Traders Ltd., has been very interested in crude oil recently as the current rally appears to have rotated lower near a top. Our predictive modeling systems, predictive cycle analysis and other tools suggest Oil/Energy may be setting up for a downward price trend. This may be an excellent opportunity for skilled traders to identify profitable trades as this trend matures.

This Daily Crude Oil Chart shows our Predictive Cycle Modeling system and shows the projected price cycles out into the future. One can see the downside projected price levels very clearly. This cycle analysis tool does not predict price levels, it just predicts price trends. We can’t look at this indicator and think that $72 ppb is a price target (near the right side). We can only assume that a downward price cycle is about to hit and use historical price as a guide to where price may attempt to fall to.

Using our adaptive Fibonacci price modeling tool, we can see from the chart below that downside price targets are currently near $72 ppb, $67 ppb and $65 ppb. Therefore, we believe the $72 price level will become the first level of support, where our price cycle tool suggests a small rotation may occur, and the $67 price level may become the ultimate downside target level.

We believe the current price rotation in Oil/Energy may be setting up for a decent downside price move with a lower price target at or below $67 ppb. Historical data shows that this type of price action, downward, at this time is historically accurate and predictable. If you want to know how you can profit from this move and learn how our research team continues to find and execute superior trades for our members, visit The Technical Traders to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen

Friday, October 5, 2018

Our New Target Levels for the Coming Gold and Silver Rally

Our modeling systems are suggesting that Gold and Silver will begin a new upside rally very quickly. We wrote about how our modeling systems are suggesting this upside move could be a tremendous opportunity for investors over 2 weeks ago. Our initial target is near the $1245 level and our second target is near the $1309 level. Recent lows help to confirm this upside projection as the most recent low prices created a price rotation that supports further upside price action. What is needed right now is a push above $1220 before we begin to see the real acceleration higher.

The Daily Gold chart, below, shows our Fibonacci modeling system suggesting that $1235 to $1250 are the upside target ranges. Near these levels, we should expect some price rotation before another leg higher begins. Currently, support near $1180 is the floor in Gold.

If you are a fan of the shiny metals and want to know what we believe is likely to happen over the next 8+ months, then please take a moment to join the Wealth Building Newsletter to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades. We provide even more detailed research and predictive price modeling for our subscribers and we believe this bottom setting up in Gold may be the last time you see $1200 prices for a while. Check out The Technical Traders today.

Chris Vermeulen

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Why We Expect a 3rd Quarter Earnings Surprise

Our focus is on developing and deploying very specialized price modeling and predictive analysis systems. Our objective is to inform our members of these potential price moves and to assist them in finding successful trading opportunities. We are alerting all of our followers of a potential move today, because we believe this move could frighten some investors as we expect price rotation as Q3 earnings data is released just before the November 2018 mid-term elections.

The weekly $INDU (Dow Industrial Average) chart shows our Adaptive Predictive Learning (ADL) modeling system at work. In this example, we asked our ADL system what it believed would be the most likely outcome originating from July 23, 2018. The reason we selected this date is because this weekly price bar prompted the current upside price move. This type of price trigger can often generate highly accurate future predictive price data.

This bar consisted of 11 unique price markers that predict future price moves, first lower, then back to the upside, with a range of probability from 83% to 96%. The initial downside price move suggests that an initial -800 to -1000 pt move (-4%) will take place before November 10, 2018. Subsequently, price should begin to move upward again after the US mid-term elections and through the end of 2018.

In conclusion, October is known as a weak month for US equities so get ready for price volatility and expect the Tech heavy NASDAQ to rotate in a larger range than the S&P and the $INDU. Additionally, expect the VIX to increase in value over the next 30+ days as October passes.

I will admit the charts in July/Early September were showing signs of a market correction in mind September but no bearish reversal pattern formed and price continued higher. During this time we closed out a position in YINN for 14% profit and another 4.3% in the IYT ETF. This goes to show how we can profit to the long side even when we are expecting a sell off the markets. We trade based on technical analysis and use our ADL and other forecasting analysis to add more conviction to a move, but we don’t trade based on predictions along.

If you want to know how we help our members find and execute for greater success, visit The Technical Traders to see our completed trades for this year and learn how we can help you find great opportunities now and in the future.

Chris Vermeulen

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Is Gold and the Miners About to Explode Upward?

After many weeks of pricing pressure as the U.S. Dollar extended a rally delivering nearly unending devaluation pricing in most commodities, Gold is setting up for a big upside rally and is likely to extend beyond $1240 in this initial run higher. We believe the immediate bottom has formed in Gold and we believe the upside move will consist of two unique legs higher. The first leg is likely to run to near $1240 - 1250 and end near the middle of November 2018. The second leg of this move will likely run to near $1310 and end near May 2019.

This move is the precious metals and miners will likely coincide with some moderate U.S. Dollar weakness as well as extended global market concerns related to the trade war with China, economic factors originating from China and the EU as well as concerns stemming from the existing emerging market issues. The bottom line is that all of these global concerns are setting up a nearly perfect storm for Gold, Silver and the mining sector to see some extended rallies over the next 6+ month – possibly longer.

Get our Free Newsletter Right Here

This Weekly Gold chart shows our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system and we’ve highlighted key price points that are currently being predicted as targets. The CYAN colored line on this chart (near $1245) shows a number of key Fibonacci projected price levels align near this level. These coordinated price targets usually result in key price levels that price will target. So, $1240 - 1250 is setting up as our first upside target.

The second key level is the MAGENTA level near $1300. This lone target well above the other aligns with historical support going back to October/November 2017.

Ultimately, our Fibonacci price modeling system is showing projected price targets as high as $1435 and $1570 – see the YELLOW ARROWS on the chart below. These levels are valid targets given the current price rotation and the potential for these levels to be reached, eventually, should not be discounted. Our Fibonacci price modeling systems are adaptive and learns from price activity as it operates. It identifies these levels based on price activity, relational modeling and active learning of Fibonacci price structure and price theory. We believe these levels will become strong upside targets over the next 12+ months which indicates we have a potential for a massive 18% to 30% upside potential in Gold.

Please take a moment to read some of our other research posts at The Technical Traders to learn how we keep our members keenly aware of these market moves before they happen and help our members find profits with strategic trading signals. Our most recent trade has already gained over 8% in less than 2 days.

Our team of researchers are dedicated to helping you find and execute greater success and our advanced proprietary price modeling solutions are some of the best in the industry. Isn’t it time you decided to invest in your future by finding a solid team of professionals to help you create greater success?

Stock & ETF Trading Signals