Crude Oil Breaks Downward – Rejecting The $120 Price Level

The recent downward Crude Oil trend may have caught many traders by surprise. Just before the US Fed raised interest rates on June 15, 2022, Crude oil was trading above $120ppb. Less than 5 days later, it collapsed -12% and has continued to trend lower. Currently, Crude Oil is near -17% lower than recent highs.

It appears Crude Oil has confirmed resistance near $120 and is devaluing as consumers pull away from traditional driving/spending habits while the Fed aggressively attempts to burst the inflation bubble. This type of contraction in Crude Oil is very similar to what happened in 2008-09 when the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) hit – Crude Oil collapsed more than -70% after IYC started trending lower in 2007....Continue Reading Here

Trading Crude Oil With USO

Crude oil, like most commodities, is not priced as a single data point like a stock. Instead, commodities, like oil, trade via futures contracts. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a particular commodity or security at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Futures contracts are standardized for quantity and quality specifications to facilitate trading on a futures exchange....Continue Reading Here.

Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance - Breakdown Pending

Our research team believes Crude Oil and Energy, in general, has stalled near major resistance and maybe setting up a big downside move as the COVID-19 virus continues to roil regional and global economies.

The recent news that the COVID-19 virus cases have skyrocketed suggests further economic shutdowns may push oil prices below $35 ppb over the next few weeks and months. Our researchers believe Oil has already set up a resistance level near $42 and will begin to move lower as concerns about the economic recovery transition through expectations related to oil demand going forward. We believe the renewed global economic demand for oil will present a very real possibility that oil could collapse below $35 ppb over the next 30 days.

We believe this pending downside move in Crude Oil will set up a great trade opportunity in ERY, the Direxion Bear Energy 2x ETF. At this point in time, we are just waiting for the technical confirmation of this trade trigger. Once we receive confirmation from our price modeling systems, we believe ERY may rally 20% to 30% or more from current levels....Continue Reading Here.

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Will Crude Oil Find Support Near $60 Dollars

Our research team warned of this move in crude oil back on October 7, 2018. At that time, we warned that oil may follow a historical price pattern, moving dramatically lower and that lows near $65 may become the ultimate bottom for that move. Here we are with a price below that level and many are asking “where will it go from here?”.

We believe the support near $65, although clearly broken, may eventually become resistance for a future upside price move. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a new target near $52.00 - $53.00 and we believe this downside move in crude oil is far from over at this point.

The current global climate for oil is that suppliers are pumping more and more oil into the market at a time when, historically, prices should continue to decline. One of our research tools includes the ability to identify overall bias models for each week, month or quarter. Historically, crude oil is dramatically weaker in the month of November and relatively flat for the month of December.

Analysis for the month of November = 11
    *  Total Monthly Sum : -44.52000000000001 across 36 bars

Analysis for the month of December = 12
    *  Total Monthly Sum : -0.699999999999922 across 36 bars

We believe the price of oil will continue to drift lower to target the $52.00 - $53.00 Fibonacci support level before attempting to find any real price support. This equates to an addition -6 to -8% price decline for skilled traders. We will alert you with a new research post as this downward price move continues or new research becomes available.

We have been calling these types of market moves all year and recently called the top in the U.S. equity markets nearly 40 days before it happened. Want to know what we think is going to happen for the rest of 2018 and into early 2019? Visit the Technical Traders Free Research to read all of our public research posts. Isn’t it time you invested in a team of researchers and tools to assist you in finding greater trading success?

Chris Vermeulen

U.S. Equities Roar to Life After Elections

Our research team is writing this message to alert all investors and traders of a pending rotation in the U.S. stock market that may happen between now and November 15th. The upside price breakout that is occurring on November 7th, the day after the US mid-term elections, is an incredible display of global investor sentiment regarding the GOP success in the Senate and the continued business friendly expectations originating out of Washington DC. The move, today, shows how clearly a global capital market shift is still engaged in the U.S. markets and how much global investors are counting on the US to drive ROI and economic growth going forward.

Yet, we feel it is important to urge investors that our modeling systems are still suggesting an ultimate price bottom should be setting up near November 8th - 15th and that we could still see a bit of downward price rotation over the next few days before this ultimate price bottom completes. It might be too easy to get caught up in this move, today, and fail to properly understand the price rotation risks that are still active in the time/price horizon.

The ES is currently +48.00 as of the creation of this post (+1.74%). This is an incredible move higher and the 2790 level becomes critical support for the markets as long as price is able to stay above that level.

The NQ is currently +172.50 (+2.45%) and shows just how clearly investors are piling into technology, healthcare and bio-tech after the US elections. This is a real vote from investors that they believe President Trump will be able to navigate any issues going forward and that the US economy will continue to push out strong numbers.

Follow our analysis to read our most recent research posts. We have already positioned our members for this “ultimate bottom” that our predictive modeling systems suggest is in the midst of forming. We called this entire downside move, bottom rotation and the ultimate bottom pattern setting up near November 12th back on September 17. If you want to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades, visit The Technical Traders to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen

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Crude Oil and Gas ETFs are Having a Good 2018

Thus far in 2018, the oil and gas industry has been booming. Rig counts in the US are up, prices at the pump are up, and the oil and gas ETFs tracking the sector are up by a lot.

Investors who have been following the industry over the past year could have made some serious money as a few of the leveraged ETFs are up 238% or more. The Velocity Shares 3X Long Crude Oil ETN (UWT) is up 247% over the last 12 months and is up more than 70% year to date. The UBS ETRACS ProShares Daily 3X Long Crude ETN (WTIU) has risen 240% over the last year and 64% year to date. Finally, the Proshares UltraPro 3X Crude Oil ETF (OILU) is up 238% over the last 12 months and 63% year to date.

But, perhaps your less risky and don’t like investing in the leveraged ETFs? Well, you still could have done well as the United States Brent Oil Fund LP (BNO) is up 71% over the last year and 19.9% since the start of 2018. Or perhaps you went with the ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF (OILK) which is up 62% in the past 12 months and 23% year to date. Or either the iPath Series B S&P GSCI Crude Oil ETN (OILB) or the United States Oil Fund LP (USO) which are both up more than 61% over the last year and 23% year to date.

There have been some reasons why the industry has been on a tear over the last, and many of that reason don’t show signs of changing in the short term. OPEC is committed to increasing the price of oil (despite its recent modest increase in production), smaller U.S. outfits still need slightly higher prices before they can add additional rigs and become profitable, the economy appears to be healthy and growing, US consumers have not yet begun to fell the “pain at the pump” again really.

While recent data and projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration don’t indicate massive price increases for oil and gas shortly, they are predicting increases. Speaking of the government, despite President Trump's promises, he has yet been able to change the shift we saw occur during the later Obama years when electric plants switched to natural gas from coal. This is something that really could change the oil and gas landscape in coming years if natural begin to climb naturally. Depending on which resource, oil or natural gas is more profitable, U.S. producers could flip-flop from one to another, causing the prices of both to climb. But, this would be something to watch for in a much longer time horizon than what we are discussing today.

Some investors may feel the run in oil and gas has already taken place and that greener pastures should be explored, as opposed to trying to get on a moving train. But, if the economic reasons for the price increases haven’t changed, then prices should theoretically continue to climb until something else changes.

Furthermore, while OPEC and Russia both talk about higher output, the fact of the matter is both parties want the price of oil to either remain where it is or increase. Most of the countries in OPEC need Oil and Gas money in order to run their governments, while it is clear to most, that some high ranking Russian government officials have personal interests in the industry.

Furthermore, the argument could be made that both Russia and OPEC would rather see prices stay flat as opposed to climbing back to $100 a barrel because current prices keep some of the U.S. producers out of business and this gives Russia and OPEC more control on global production and price stability.

But, regardless of why Russia and OPEC may want to prices getting out of control, they still want to maintain current prices, giving oil and gas a reasonably stable price floor.

Buying different oil and gas ETFs, ETNs or other funds may not produce the huge returns we have seen in the past 12 or 7 months, but they could still bear fruit worth eating. The leveraged investments appear to be extremely risky at this time, even though I don’t see prices falling, but simply because of the daily costs associated with these funds. Buying a solid group of oil and gas ETFs made up of both the companies operating in the industry and the commodities themselves could pay healthy dividends in the coming year.

Matt Thalman
INO.com Contributor - ETFs

Crude Oil Retesting $30 Dollars or Lower?

Recently, Light Crude has seen a dramatic 35%+ increase in value.  As the current price continue to flirt with $40 per barrel, the likelihood of a further price rise is on everyone’s mind.  With recent lows near $26 per barrel, what is the possibility that oil will form a base above $30 and attempt a rally?

Historically, the 2009 low price for oil was $33.20.  This level should be viewed as a key level of support for current price action.  The recent price rotation below this level is a sign that oil prices are under extreme pressure in the current economic environment with a supply glut and slower than expected demand.

It is my opinion that the price of oil will continue to reflect the supply/demand aspects of the global markets in relation to global economic activity.  Thus, my analysis is that Oil will likely attempt to retest support, near $30 or below, in the immediate future in direct relation to continued supply production in conjunction with slower global demand.

(Baltic Dry Index Chart – LongTerm)

The BDI Index continues to attempt to push to new lows.  This is a strong indication that global exports and international demand from consumers and business is continuing to diminish.

Crude Oil Analysis & Trade Signals: www.The Gold & Oil Guy.com

(DOWT – Transportation Chart)

Even though the DOW Transportation Index has risen recently, the current direction is decisively bearish in indicates the next level of support is near 6265 – clearly 1400 points below current levels.

(Baltic Dry Index Recent)

The longer the BDI continues to push to new lows, the more likely we are to see continued contraction in demand for commodities and global exports.  Thus, with the continued supply production throughout the globe and continued global contraction, one could expect that Oil prices will continue to be under pressure globally.

The simple mechanics of the equation are that certain ME and foreign countries require continued income from oil production/sales.  As the continued decline in Oil prices creates economic pressure, these countries have little alternative but to continue producing and selling as any price to feed their need for dollars.  This creates a mechanism that propels a vicious cycle or over production and sales in an attempt to generate dollars that are desperately needs to fund a relatively mature economy.

As all things are in a constant state of flux, it become important to understand that price rotation in the Oil market will likely continue between $28 and $42 for a period of time.  This is really a traders market in the sense that a nearly rotation level this large, in percentage relation, is available for all traders.  Be cautious of rallies as they may be short-lived. I expect a number of weeks of rotation near $36 ppb followed by a lower price rotation back to near $25 ppb between April 5th and May 5th.

After that price rotation lower, then I expect one of two targets to be tested, $21 ppb or $37 ppb.  It all depends on how the global markets are performing in a month or two.

(CL Chart)

(XOI Chart)

Right now, expect continued price rotation between $42 ppb and $28 ppb till shortly after April 5th.  Then expect much larger price rotation till after May 5th.  At that point, we’ll have to see how the global economic factors are playing out to make further price expectations.

I expect there to be some big trades around crude oil for both short term swing trades and long term trend trades but the market just is not yet here.

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Chris Vermeulen

Spotting Reversals Using Simple Patterns in the Markets

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The crude oil, gold, coffee and sugar bulls took another beating this week and it's no surprise traders are dumping positions like crazy. Don't let your emotions get the best of you, put John's simple trading methods to work recognizing those reversals and be ready for them.

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See you in the markets putting this to work,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO at the Crude Oil Trader


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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Coffee and Corn Markets Recap

Our trading partner Michael Seery is back this week to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. Mike has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the June contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I have been sitting on the sidelines for the last several months in this market but if have a long futures position I would continue place your stop loss above the 10 day low which stands at 56.00 however in my opinion I think prices have topped out.

Strong demand and a very weak U.S dollar have pushed crude oil prices up from a contract low around $46 a barrel to around $63 in Wednesdays trade which has been a remarkable rally in my opinion but I think this market is overextended so I’m still going to remain sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as this market will remain volatile for the rest of 2015 in my opinion giving you many trading opportunities.

Many of the commodity markets rallied in recent weeks as the U.S dollar is hitting a 3 month low which has been very supportive, however with record supplies overhanging that should keep a lid on prices at this point in time but I just don’t know where short term prices are headed so I’m looking at other markets that are beginning to trend.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures settled last Friday at 1,174 an ounce while currently trading at 1,185 in a relatively quiet trading week while still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average continuing its lower to choppy trend as the true breakout does not occur on the upside until 1,225 is broken or on the downside at 1,170 as I remain neutral at the current time.

The chart structure is starting to improve as gold prices have gone sideways for the last six weeks consolidating the recent down move as the U.S dollar is hitting a three month low and has been supporting gold and silver in recent weeks so be patient and keep an eye on this market at the current time. The monthly unemployment came out strong stating that the unemployment rate is 5.4% sending the stock market sharply higher as I’m surprised that gold futures are not lower this afternoon as the interest rates in the United States have been on the rise sending volatility into the commodity markets as I still see no reason to own gold at the current time but currently this market is stuck in a consolidation and in my opinion it’s very difficult to make money when a trend is not in sight.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Coffee futures in the July contract are higher by 300 points this Friday afternoon currently trading at 134.70 a pound after settling last Friday at 134.20 in a very nonvolatile trading week. I have been recommending a short position when prices broke 135 in last week’s trade and if you took that recommendation place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 144 risking around 1000 points or $3,800 per contract plus slippage and commission.

The chart structure will improve dramatically next week helping lower monetary risk as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as big production could come out of Brazil which could send prices in my opinion as low as 100 a pound as the Brazilian Real has strengthened against the U.S dollar in recent weeks, but still remains in a long-term bear market which is negative for anything grown in Brazil.

The next level of support is Wednesdays low around 130 as many of the soft commodities were higher this Friday afternoon so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion as I think the risk/reward is in your favor.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

This Chart Must Be Broken Before a Bear Market Can Be Confirmed

Corn futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average after settling last Friday in Chicago at 3.80 a bushel while currently trading at 3.79 down slightly for the trading week as 55% of the crop has already been planted with expectations for this Monday’s crop report as high as 85% as the weather in the Midwestern part of the United States is excellent and especially in the state of Illinois. I have been recommending a short position when corn prices broke 3.95 a bushel and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 3.87 risking around $.8 or $400 from today’s price level plus slippage and commission as the chart structure remains outstanding.

Expectations of this year’s crop are around 13.6 billion bushels which is 500 million bushels less than last year, however carry over levels are very large coupled with a strengthening dollar compared to last year as I still remain bearish especially as the weather remains ideal, however it’s an extremely long growing season as we usually do get some type of weather scare to the upside due to hot and dry weather forecasts, however the trend is your friend and the weather forecasts are bearish.

Traders await next week’s USDA crop report which definitely can send volatility back into this market but weather is the main focus at this time as we head into the hot and dry summer season which can send volatility into this market as we suffered a drought in 2012 sending prices to a record high of around $8.50 so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts while also placing the proper stop loss.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Coffee Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are down $1.00 this Thursday afternoon currently trading at 49.00 a barrel after closing last Friday at 40.87 basically unchanged for the trading week with very volatile trading sessions including yesterday when prices were up about $3 dollars as I’m still sitting on the sidelines in this market as the trend remains mixed and very choppy. Crude oil futures have been consolidating between $45 – $55 for the last three months after falling out of bed from around $90 a barrel to around $45 and that doesn’t surprise me as we could see sideways action for several more months to come so be patient and look at another market that’s currently trending.

If you take a look at the daily chart there’s a possible double bottom being created around the $45 level and if you are bullish this market and think prices have bottomed I would probably take a shot at today’s price level while placing my stop loss below $45 risking around $4,000 per contract plus slippage and commission, however like I stated I’m currently waiting for a true breakout to occur. Traders are awaiting tomorrow’s monthly unemployment number, however markets will be closed so the reaction will happen on Sunday night and that will send high volatility into the market as expectations are 244,000 new jobs added as a stronger economy certainly creates stronger demand for gasoline and crude oil.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures in the June contract are down $11 this Thursday afternoon in New York trading at 1,197 an ounce basically unchanged for the trading week as investors are awaiting tomorrow’s monthly appointment number which should send high volatility into this market as prices have rallied about $60 over the last three weeks as profit-taking ensued in today’s trading action. Gold futures are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as tomorrows trade should be very interesting.

Estimates are around 244,000 new jobs added so any number higher than that will probably send gold prices sharply lower as that might in turn tell the Federal Reserve that interest rates might have to be raised sooner rather than later. The next major resistance in gold prices is at 1,220 as that’s the true breakout to the upside in my opinion, however the chart structure remains poor at the current time so wait for a tighter trading range to develop allowing you to place your stop loss minimizing risk as much as possible and try to stick with trades that are trending as this market remains very choppy so avoid gold at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 17.07 an ounce while currently trading at 16.85 on this holiday shortened week due to the Good Friday holiday tomorrow the markets will be closed finishing down around 20 cents for the trading week still hovering near a 6 week high. Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I have been sitting on the sidelines in this market as the chart structure is poor at the current time, however if you are bullish silver prices and think prices have bottomed my recommendation would be to buy at today’s price while placing your stop loss at the 10 day low which currently stands at 16.47 risking about $.40 or $400 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

Volatility in silver and the precious metals as a whole has come back as weakness in the S&P 500 is starting to put money back into the precious metals in the short term as the U.S dollar has been consolidating their recent run up as I still see choppiness ahead in silver as I’m waiting for a better chart pattern and tighter chart structure to develop therefore allowing you to place a tighter stop loss minimizing monetary risk. TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Coffee futures in the May contract are currently trading up 300 points at 137.80 a pound basically finishing unchanged for the trading week as volatility remains high despite the fact that prices remain in an extremely tight trading range over the last four weeks between 130 – 145 as a breakout is looming in my opinion as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to develop.

If you have been following my previous blogs I have very few recommendations at the current time as many of the commodity markets are consolidating in the sideways pattern just like the coffee market as a breakout will not occur until prices break above 145 or below 130 as we start to enter the frost season in Brazil which can occur in May and June like it did in 1994 sending prices from 60 all the way up to around 260 in a matter of weeks.

In my opinion coffee prices are on the verge of a bottoming pattern and we might go sideways for quite some time so keep a close eye on this market as this sleeping giant will wake up once again. Coffee prices traded as high as 230 just 6 months ago dropping dramatically as excellent weather conditions persisted throughout the growing year in Brazil but that has already been priced into the market as volatility certainly will increase. Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Excellent


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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are down $1.50 this Friday afternoon trading at 49.70 after settling last Friday at 46.57 up over $3 dollars for the trading week as prices traded as high as 52.48 in yesterday’s trade because of the fact of a possible war developing between Saudi Arabia and Yemen sending prices sharply higher.

I was recommending a short position in crude oil getting stopped out in yesterday’s trade giving back most of the profits, however the trade was still slightly profitable but disappointing as prices rallied 4 straight trading sessions before today with a possible double bottom around the 45.00 level being created. At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as a true breakout to the upside will be above 55.00 and the downside breakout won’t occur until prices break the contract low around 45.00 a barrel so keep an eye on this market as the chart structure remains outstanding.

Crude oil futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside, however my exit strategy is if I’m short and prices hit a two week high against me then it’s time to move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as you must have an exit strategy as holding and never getting out of a position is extremely dangerous in my opinion as you must be nimble. At the current time I’m holding very few positions as I got stopped out of many positions in the last week so currently I’m only short sugar, lean hogs, and soybeans and I will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for new trends to develop.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday at 1,185 an ounce currently trading at 1,200 up $15 for the trading week closing higher 8 out of the last 9 trading sessions in an impressive rally which started all the way back at 1,140 peeking out in yesterday’s trade at 1,220 as Saudi Arabia is sending ground troops into the country of Yemen sending the market sharply higher as that altercation looks to stay for some time to come.

Gold futures are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I was recommending a short position last week getting stopped out in last Fridays trade and that’s why you must have an exit strategy as the 10 day high was 1,177 as we have rallied $43 higher from that level this week with major resistance at 1,220 which is the true breakout in my opinion, and if that level is broken I would be recommending a bullish position but at this point in time I am neutral as the chart structure is poor at the current time due to the fact of the recent run up in prices.

Gold futures have been extremely choppy over the last six months and choppy markets in my opinion are very difficult to trade successfully so at this point look for another trend that is starting to develop.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.88 an ounce while currently trading this Friday afternoon at 17.08 up around 20 cents for the trading week hitting a four week high and now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside. I was recommending a short position in silver getting stopped out last week at the 2 week high which was around 16.20 and currently I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as the 10 day low is around 15.35 which is a $1.70 away as the risk is too high at the moment. Silver futures traded as high as 17.40 in yesterday’s trade on news that Saudi Arabia is sending ground troops into the country of Yemen as a possible war is at hand as the U.S dollar has also dropped about 4% from its contract high lending support to the precious metals as a whole. In my opinion I think you should wait for better chart structure to develop so be patient and keep an eye on this market as the trend may have turned to the upside but I will wait for a lower risk trade before entering.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor


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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are up $1.20 a barrel currently trading at 46.70 as I've been recommending a short position when prices broke out to contract lows earlier last week and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss at the 10 day high which currently stands at 52.00 risking around $7 dollars or $3,500 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure remains poor, however it will start to tighten up on a daily basis next week.

Crude oil futures rallied today because of the fact that the U.S dollar is down 160 points pushing up many commodity prices, however as the trend follower I continue to think lower prices are ahead so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts on risking 2% of your account balance as oversupply issues are currently keeping a lid on prices.

The precious metals, grain market, stock markets, and the energy complex were all higher today as it seems to me that we had a relief rally taking place due to the fact that of the FOMC minutes which were construed bullish as interest rates are not going higher in the short term . As a trader I believe you must follow the trend and the short term trend is to the downside so don’t let a 1 or 2 day rally bother you as you must stick to the rules and that sometimes means giving back profits.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract are higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session hitting a 2 week high as I have been recommending a short position getting stopped out in today's trade licking my wounds as I'm a little disappointed as it was all based on the FOMC minutes as they are not going to raise interest rates anytime soon pushing up many of the commodity markets especially the precious metals.

Gold futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average, however as an exit strategy when I'm short and prices hit a two week high it’s time to move on and sit on the sidelines as prices settled last Friday at 1,152 while currently trading at 1,187 up over $30 in an impressive week especially considering the fact that the NASDAQ 100 has crossed 5000 once again as everything is basically higher across the board this afternoon.

I've been recommending a short position from around 1,160 getting stopped out at 1,177 as it was a losing trade but nothing horrific but disappointing as always when you're on the wrong side of a trade, however I do think we will be sitting on the sidelines in this market for quite some time waiting for better chart structure to develop as I think prices will chop around trading off of the U.S dollar which has turned very volatile at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the May contract are sharply higher this Friday afternoon trading up $.75 in New York hitting a four week high as I’ve been recommending a short position in silver prices getting stopped out around the 16.20 level as prices have skyrocketed off the FOMC minutes stating that they will not raise interest rates sending many commodities sharply higher on short covering alone. Silver futures are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average as I’m now advising clients to sit on the sidelines and wait for better chart structure to develop as prices settled last Friday at 15.50 finishing up almost $1.40 for the trading week having one of its best weeks in months as the U.S dollar is down 160 points pushing up the precious metals in today’s action.

I’ve been recommending a short position from around the 15.60 level losing around $.60 on the trade or $600 per mini contract and I’m disappointed but it’s time to move on and look at another market that is currently trending as many of the commodities may have experienced a short term bounce as it looks like interest rates flat out are not going higher. The chart structure in silver at the current time is terrible as prices have skyrocketed in the last three days as volatility is high once again so look at a different market with less risk at the current time as the 15.50 breakout to the downside was false and that happens so you have to deal with it and risk as little amount of money as possible.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor


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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the April contract are trading lower for the 4th consecutive trading session hitting new contract lows at 44.98 a barrel as I’ve been recommending a short position in yesterday trade around the $48 level & if you took that trade continue place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 52.40 risking around $7 dollars or $3,500 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

Prices in my opinion are headed sharply lower as prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving as prices were consolidating over the last six weeks but you’re going to have to be patient in this trade as the 10 day high will not be lowered for another five days so continue to play this to the downside taking advantage of any rallies maintaining the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.

The U.S dollar is sharply higher again this week pushing many of the commodity markets including the S&P 500 lower which has been very resilient until recently as there seems to be a worldwide slowdown occurring as the commodity markets all look weak so continue to trade with the trend as I don’t know how low prices can go but I do think in my opinion prices are headed lower as whenever a commodity makes a new contract low that’s not a good sign if you are in a bullish position.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract settled in New York last Friday at $1,164 an ounce while currently trading at 1,156 down about 8 dollars for the trading week in a relatively nonvolatile trading session still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I have been recommending a short position as of last Friday and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,214 risking around $2,400 per mini contract, however the chart structure will start to improve dramatically next week lowering the stop loss.

The problem with gold at current time is the fact that the U.S dollar is sharply higher this week once again continuing to put pressure on the commodity markets as I don't see that trend stopping anytime soon as the next level of support is 1,130 – 1,140 & if that level is broken you would have to think that gold prices will trade below 1,100 and if you look at platinum prices they are hitting another contract low so I think gold will catch up to platinum to the downside.

Many of the commodity markets continue to go lower as well with crude oil prices retesting contract lows once again also pressuring the precious metals as the trend is your friend and I continue to think that there is no reason to own gold at this time so continue to sell as well as maintaining the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 15.80 while currently trading in New York at 15.50 down about $.30 for the trading week hitting a four month low while breaking critical support at 15.55 an ounce as I’m recommending a short position in this market & if you took this trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which was lowered to 16.58 risking around $1,100 per mini contract plus slippage and commission, however the chart structure will tighten up considerably next week.

I sound like a broken record as I’m pessimistic the entire commodity market due to the fact that the U.S dollar hit a 12 year high once again as I do think prices can retest the December 1st 2014 low of 14.70 an ounce as I see no reason to own the precious metals at this time especially with higher interest rates on the horizon and an incredibly strong U.S dollar both very pessimistic fundamental indicator towards the precious metals and silver prices as a whole.

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside and if 14.70 is broken you can see a freefall in prices possibly down around the 12.50 level in the next 6 to 8 weeks as the trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving


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He's Back....Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil and gold. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the April contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside however I have been recommending investors to sit on the sidelines in this market as prices have been in a tight consolidation trading between $48 – $55 for the last five weeks as I’m waiting for another trend to develop.

Crude oil futures settled last Friday at 49.76 a barrel while currently trading at 49.70 basically unchanged but currently down $1.00 this Friday as the U.S dollar is up 130 points putting pressure on many of the commodity markets. At the current time there is a struggle between the bulls and bears as deflation is a worldwide concern, however the U.S monthly unemployment number came in very strong which could increase demand especially when you’re starting to enter a strong driving season which can push prices higher however sit on the sidelines and wait for a trend to occur making sure that you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the chart structure currently is outstanding so a breakout is looming in my opinion.

Oil prices are consolidating over the last month or so after falling from around $90 and that is understandable as prices could go sideways for several more months but as a trader I want to follow the trend and this trend is mixed at the current time so look at other markets.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the April contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside after settling last Friday at 1,213 while trading at 1,172 down $22 this Friday afternoon as the monthly unemployment report was construed as bullish sending gold to a 9 week low.

The U.S dollar is hitting another contract high up 110 points putting pressure on the precious metals as I'm currently recommending a short position in the mini contract which is $33 for every dollar move while placing your stop above the 10 day high which currently stands 1,223 risking around 50 points or $1800 per contract plus slippage and commission.

In my opinion I believe the U.S dollar will continue its bullish trend and therefore should continue putting bearish pressure on gold and silver prices here in the short term as the next level of support is at 1,165 and if that is breached I think that we test the contract low around 1,130 so continue to play this to the downside as the chart structure will start to improve later next week tightening the stop and reducing monetary risk.

Many of the commodity and stock markets were lower today due to the fact that United States treasury bonds plummeted this afternoon sending yields higher as now the speculation is that the Federal Reserve will start to raise rates in June which is another pessimistic fundamental indicator towards gold prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Weekly Futures Recap with Mike Seery....Crude Oil, Gold, Coffee and More

Our trading partner Mike Seery is out with his calls for this week and he includes some of reliable rules to protect our profits.

Crude oil futures in the March contract settled last Friday at 49.00 while currently trading at 47.50 up about $.80 in early trade this Friday morning in New York as extreme volatility has occurred in recent days and if you’re still short this market I would now place my stop above yesterday’s high which currently stands at 51.73 risking around $4.25 or $4,250 per contract plus slippage and commission from today’s price levels. Crude oil futures are trading significantly below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend still remains bearish as oversupply has decimated prices in recent weeks as who knows how far prices can actually go but stick to the rules as the 10 day high has tightened up considerably as prices have gone sideways in the last week or so with big trading ranges.

Crude oil prices have been dramatically cut in recent months due to the fact that Saudi Arabia refuses to cut supply coming out earlier this week reiterating that fact that they will not cut which keeps sending prices lower as they are trying to squeeze some American companies to get out of the business as the U.S is now a major producer which we weren’t just 5 years ago and that’s what’s changed the situation. The crude oil market I believe for the 1st time in history is not putting any price premium as in the past we always had a $10 or $20 price premium due to the fact of chaos in the Mideast but at this point problems in the Mideast are not affecting crude oil prices so this market still could remain bearish for some time to come especially with the U.S dollar hitting a 9 year high which is pessimistic all commodity prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the February contract are slightly lower this Friday afternoon in New York after settling last Friday at 1,216 currently trading at 1,260 as I’m currently recommending a long futures position while placing your stop loss below the 10 day low which is around 1,209 risking around $50 or $1,650 on a mini contract plus slippage and commission. Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a 5 month high as the chart structure will also start to improve on a daily basis starting next week as the market has caught fire recently due to worldwide problems as money is pouring back into the precious metals and out of the S&P 500 in the beginning of 2015.

Yesterday the Swiss government announced they will let the Swiss Franc float rocketing that currency up while sending shock waves through the bond and currency markets and it certainly looks to me that problems are here to stay here for a while as Europe is a mess and this could push gold up to the next resistance level of 1,300 – 1,320 so take advantage of any price dip while maintaining the proper stop loss risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as gold has finally turned into a short-term bull market once again.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Improving

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Coffee futures in the March contract have been extremely volatile in recent weeks due to the fact of concerns of lack of rain down in Brazil pushing prices up in over the last several weeks as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as coffee prices are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average telling you the trend is mixed. Coffee prices settled last Friday at 180 and are currently trading at 175.30 topping out around the 185 area as volatility should increase as the next 3 weeks are very critical to the coffee crop as traders are keeping a close eye on Brazilian weather.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I think it’s very difficult historically speaking to have back to back droughts, but you never know as the weather is unpredictable, however this market has been choppy so wait for a better trend to develop and avoid any type of futures position at this time in my opinion. Many of the commodity markets are still heading lower because of the U.S dollar hitting a 9 year high and if adequate rain comes to key coffee growing regions over the next 3 weeks I would have to think that a retest of the 160 level would be in the cards so have patience and wait for a trend to develop.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Summary with Mike Seery

Crude oil futures are lower this Friday afternoon currently trading in the February contract at 52.60 a barrel after hitting new lows earlier in the trading session trading as low as $52 a barrel and if you’re still short this market the chart structure is improving tremendously so continue to place your stop loss at the 10 day high which stands at 58.53 and that stop will be lowered next week as well as volatility certainly has slowed down in recent weeks due to the holidays.

Crude oil futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I never try to catch a falling knife as this market continues to move lower and that is why I will continue to move my stop to the 10 day high allowing you to try to take advantage of much of the move as possible as nobody knows how low prices could go.

The problem with oil is two fold as the 1st is that we have record supplies and the 2nd is the U.S dollar is hitting another all time year high once again pushing most commodity prices lower but it’s really all about the oversupply issue as the United States is now an exporter with record domestic supplies at the current time, however if you are currently not short this market you have missed the boat and I would sit on the sidelines and look for another market at the current time.

Ever since Thanksgiving when the Saudis announced that they will not cut production prices have been in a free fall and that’s terrific for consumers as gasoline prices in many parts of the country are under $2 a gallon which is remarkable in my opinion happening in such a quick period of time, however prices have been lower in the past so do not try to buy this market in my opinion as I still remain bearish.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Gold futures in the February contract witnessed another extremely volatile trading session with another $20 trading range currently trading up $4 at 1,188 after trading as low as 1,167 earlier in the session as the U.S dollar hit another multi-year high pressuring many the commodity prices, however bottom feeders appeared thinking that gold was overdone to the downside.

Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market waiting for better chart structure to develop as the market is just too volatile in my opinion, however if you are bearish this market I would sell at today’s price while placing my stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,210 risking around $23 or $2,300 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is relatively solid at the current time.

Gold futures remain in a long term downtrend as investors are still putting money into the S&P 500 and out of the precious metals especially with a strong U.S dollar which looks to head higher in my opinion and with worldwide problems cooling down especially with Russia there’s really no reason to own gold at the current time.

Gold futures traded over the last 2 months in a price range between $1,140-$1,240 and now around mid-range so I’m waiting for a trend to develop as traders are waiting next Friday’s monthly unemployment report which should send even more volatility into this market so make sure if you are in the futures market that you use the proper amount contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as this market is high risk.
Trend: Lower
Chart Stucture: Excellent

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Weekly Crude Oil, Dollar and Gold Market Summary for Week Ending Friday November 28th

Crude oil futures in the January contract are down $6 a barrel as OPEC announced on Thanksgiving that they will not cut production as the trade was expecting 1 million barrels to be cut sending prices to a 5 year low with the next major level of support all the way back to May 24th of the year 2010 at 67.15 and I still do believe with OPEC and Saudi Arabia definitely wanting lower prices that they will get their wish as prices remain bearish in my opinion. Crude oil futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that trend is lower and if you’re still short this market I would place my stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 77.83 which is around 1000 points or $10,000 risk per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure now has turned terrible. The chart structure before today’s activity was very solid as the 10 day high was very close to where prices were trading, however when you move $5 lower in one day that’s what’s going to happen. If you’re not short this market I would sit on the sidelines because I think the risk is too high but definitely do not try and pick a bottom because who knows how low prices can actually go. The U.S dollar continues its bullish momentum up another 60 points today also contributing to a weaker energy market as the world is awash with energy supplies at the current time and you have to remember in 2008 prices traded around $35 a barrel and that was with a weak U.S dollar so prices still can head lower.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Terrible

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The U.S dollar is rallying sharply this Friday afternoon currently trading at 88.42 in the December contract as I’ve been recommending a bullish position in the U.S dollar while placing your stop loss below the 10 day low which currently stands at 87.23 risking around $1,200 dollars plus commission and slippage per contract as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. The U.S dollar is trading above its 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside as crude oil prices are down nearly $5 which is really putting pressure on several of the foreign currencies such as the Canadian dollar which is down 150 points and I still do believe we’re in a longer-term secular bull market in the U.S dollar. The European countries look to head into recession as the trend is your friend in the commodity markets so continue to play this to the upside while placing the proper stop loss while using the proper amount of contracts risking only 2% of your account balance on any given trade in case you are wrong. The strong U.S dollar is pressuring many commodity prices to the downside as the next major resistance is at 88.51 which was the most recent high hit last week and I do think prices will continue to move higher as investors feel much safer buying the U.S dollar than buying any other currency which are all seemingly in turmoil at the current time.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures this Friday afternoon after the Thanksgiving holiday are sharply lower due to the fact that crude oil prices are down nearly $5 also pressuring the precious metals to the downside as gold in the February contract is currently trading down $29 at 1,167 after settling last Friday at 1,198 as I still remain neutral in this market as prices are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average so avoid this market at the current time. In my opinion choppy markets are difficult to trade as the longer term downtrend line in gold is still intact in my opinion as a strong U.S dollar and S&P 500 continue to take money out of gold as the money flow continues to go into those 2 sectors as I still think there’s a possible retest of 1,130 in the month of December and if you remember in 2013 December was also a negative month to the downside as the stock market in my opinion will continue to climb higher throughout the rest of the year. The chart structure in gold is poor at the current time as prices have been choppy in recent weeks so look for a better market to trade and keep an eye on this and hopefully better chart structure will develop over the course of the next several weeks but I’m feeling that we will not be involved in the gold market until at least early 2015.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Week Ending Crude Oil, Gold and Coffee Markets Summary for Friday November 21st

Our trading partner Mike Seery brings us his weekly call on crude oil, gold and coffee. Could crude oil really be headed lower? If king dollar gets it's way it just might be headed much lower. Here's what Mike has to say about this and other futures commodity trades.

Crude oil futures are up 30 cents in the January contract trading higher for the 2nd consecutive trading session as a short term bottom may have been placed as China cut their interest rate today sending crude oil sharply higher in early trade trading as high as 77.82 a barrel before retracing while currently trading at 76.22 if you are still short this market I would place my stop above the 10 day high which in Monday’s trade will come down to 77.92 risking around 170 points or $1,700 per contract. The U.S dollar was sharply higher and that’s generally very bearish the commodity markets, however with China cutting their interest rate that combated the negativity coming out of the Euro currency causing short covering across the board as many of the commodities including energies, metals, and the grain sector were all higher today but continue to place your stop loss at that level and see what Monday’s trade brings. The fundamentals in oil still remain very bearish as Saudi Arabia has not cut production & the United States continues its torrid pace of production flooding the world market so even if you are stopped out on this trade sit on the sidelines and wait for another trend to develop as I’m not totally convinced that lower prices aren’t ahead in 2015. Crude oil futures are still trading slightly below their 20 but still far below their 100 day moving average telling you the trend is still to the downside and if the U.S dollar continues to move higher that eventually will put pressure on prices once again in my opinion but on a day to day basis anything can occur.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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As I talked about in yesterday’s blog I am telling investors to remain neutral as I do believe gold prices will remain choppy to lower for the rest of 2014 as prices rallied $9 to trade around $1,200 per ounce as extreme volatility has entered this market and I think today’s price action was very impressive due to the fact that the U.S dollar was up over 50 points which is generally very bearish precious metals, however China cut their interest rate pushing many commodities prices higher. Gold futures are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average moving higher despite the fact that the ECB looks like they’re going to utilize more stimulus which is remarkable in my opinion as I do think if the U.S dollar continues to move higher eventually that will be very bearish gold prices so sit on the sidelines as you do not want to trade a choppy market. This market is extremely volatile with big up price swings and down swings so avoid and move on to a trendy market like the S&P 500. Volatility in gold is amazing lately with many days of a $30 – $50 trading range which is incredible going into the holiday season, however if you remember last year gold’s low was near December 31st and we opened up the next day around $20 higher and I think the same thing will happen because of the fact that stock sales which are losers are sold to offset winning trades come the month of December so I still look for another leg down but still would sit on the sidelines at the current time. TREND: NEUTRAL
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Coffee futures in the March contract sold off around 600 for the trading week currently trading at 190.70 in New York with high volatility in the last week with several sharply higher and lower trading sessions as I am advising investors to stay away from this market as the trend is extremely choppy and difficult to trade successfully in my opinion. Coffee prices are trading right at their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is neutral as this volatility will remain for months to come as weather in Brazil is very fickle on a week to week basis as drought concerns are still in the back of traders’ minds as the weather currently is positive for production. The chart structure in coffee presently is very poor as I like to trade markets with tight chart structure which allows you to place tighter stop losses lowering monetary risk in my opinion. TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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