Learn How to Take Advantage of Volatility And Profit From It

Volatility is the most common way to measure risk in the financial markets. While there are a plethora of methods, calculations, and derivatives to calculate volatility, they are all trying to accomplish the same goal: what is the price of a security going to do in the future? Without a crystal ball, there’s no perfect answer, but let’s go through a few common ways that we can estimate future volatility.

Let’s Talk Volatility

Generally speaking, there are two types of volatility that traders and investors use in an effort to understand risk – historical volatility and implied volatility....Continue Reading Here.

 

Utilities Continues To Rally – Is It Sending A Warning Signal Yet?

We have experienced an incredible rally in many sectors over the past 5+ months. My research team has been pouring over the charts trying to identify how the next few weeks and months may play out in terms of continued trending or risks of some price volatility setting up. We believe the Utilities Sector may hold the key to understanding how and when the US markets will reach some level of stronger resistance as many sector ETFs are trading in new all time high price ranges.

Utilities Sector Resistance at $71.10 Should Not Be Ignored

The Utilities Sector has continued to rally since setting up a unique bottom in late February 2021. A recent double top setup, near $68, suggests resistance exists just above current trading levels. Any continuation of this uptrend over the next few weeks, targeting the $70 Fibonacci 100% Measured Move, would place the XLU price just below the previous pre COVID19 highs near $71.10 (the MAGENTA Line).

My research suggests the momentum up this recent uptrend may continue to push prices higher into early May, quite possibly setting up the Utilities ETF for a rally above $70. Yet, we believe the resistance near $71.10 will likely act as a strong barrier for price and may prompt a downward price correction after the completion of the Fibonacci 100% Measured Price Move. In other words, the recent rally across many sectors will likely continue for a bit longer before key resistance levels begin to push many sectors into some sideways trading ranges....Continue Reading Here.

Mid-Caps & Transportation Show Upside Targets For Next Rally

An important technical conclusion stemming from the recent volatility spike is that prices must continue to push higher, above previous highs, in order to confirm the continued upside price expectations. 

The recent volatility spike and downside rotation in the US major stock market were big enough to reset many trending systems and prompt new upside price targets. In this research article, I will share our targets on the Mid-Caps and the Transportation ETFs to show you want we expect from the potential rally.

IWM Breakout Above $218.35 Suggest Rally is Just Starting

The IWM, the Ishares Russell 2000 ETF, Daily chart highlights the recent rotation in price and shows a Fibonacci price extension range from the late December 2020 lows to the recent late January 2021 highs. I use these Fibonacci price extensions as a means of measuring potential upside or downside price targets, which seem to be fairly accurate. Watching what happens near the 61.8% level on the chart will guide us in determining if the 100% target level will be reached quickly or after a bit of consolidation....Read More Here.

Custom Index Charts Suggest U.S. Stock Market Ready for a Pause

Weeks after the Election Rally initiated a moderately strong upside breakout rally, our Custom Index charts suggest the US stock market may be ready for a brief pause in trending before any new trends continue. Global traders and investors jumped into the US stock market just days before the US elections expecting something big to take place. The rally that initiated just days before the US election pushed our Custom Index charts well into the upper range of the 2016 to 2018 upward sloping price channel. This suggests the US stock markets have ended the downward price reversion and are now attempting to extend into the upward price channel....attempting to resume the upward trending that started after the 2016 elections.

Weekly Smart Cash and Volatility Indexes

The Weekly Smart Cash Index, below, highlights the impressive rally recently and the upward sloping price channel that is back in play for price. The highlighted range of the upward sloping price channel is actually the lower half of the std deviation range of the 2016 to 2018 price channel. So, as of right now, the Smart Cash Index price level has yet to really breach the middle of this channel and is still only within the lower half of the channel. Still, the support near the lower boundary of this level has been retested two or three times over the past six months and held. This suggests the lower channel level (the lower heavy BLUE line) is now acting as moderate price support....Continue Reading Here.

SPY Expectations for the Rest of September

Research Highlights....

* Over the past 28 years, the SPY has gained an average of 

   3.45% in 15 of those years; it has fallen by 6.42% in the 

   other 13 years. 

* The critical support level for SPY is 332.85. If the SPY finds

   support at this level then you can expect continued, 

   moderate price increases. 

* Prepare for a moderate increase in volatility for the rest of September – watch the VIX.

My research team and I have been pouring over the charts in an effort to attempt to identify any support or weakness related to the increase in volatility over the past 7+ trading days. The VIX is currently at 29.71 after reaching a high of 38.28. We believe the increased price volatility is here to stay – at least through the end of 2020. This means skilled technical traders should prepare for some potentially large and aggressive price swings over the next few weeks and months.

September 11th and Historical Price Modeling

As we come to September 11, 2020, and reflect on the 9/11 terrorist attacks, we become more centered on what really matters in life for most of us – family, friends, health, safety, and opportunity. Even though we near a potential rotation in the market, we must never lose focus on these most essential components of our lives....Continue Reading Here.

Wild Volatility Continues as U.S. Markets Attempt to Establish New Trend

We’ve continued to attempt to warn investors of the risks ahead for the U.S. and global markets by generating these research posts and by providing very clear data supporting our conclusions. Throughout the entire months of May and June, we’ve seen various economic data points report very mixed results – and in some cases, surprise numbers as a result of the deep economic collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event. This research post should help to clear things up going forward for most traders/investors.

As technical traders, we attempt to digest these economic data factors into technical and price analysis while determining where and what to trade. We attempt to identify the “Best Asset Now” (BAN) for trading based on our proprietary technical analysis and predictive modeling tools. We also attempt to stay away from excessive risks in the markets. The reason we adopt this strategy is to help protect assets and to attempt to assist our clients and followers in avoiding sometimes foolish trading decisions that can destroy your account and future.....Read More Here

ADL Gold Prediction Confirms Our Targets

The Gold rally we predicted to happen in late 2018 took place, almost perfectly, based on our ADL predictive modeling systems results. This rally took place in May through September 2019 and pushed Gold up to levels near $1600. The rest of the year, Gold consolidated near $1500 as a strong US Stock Market rally took hold in Q4 of 2019.

Our original prediction was that Gold would rally to levels near $1750 before the end of 2019 based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system (ADL). This did not happen in 2019 as out ADL modeling systems suggested, but it appears Gold is setting up for another massive upside rally in 2020.

Taking a look at our ADL predictive modeling systems on Monthly charts for Gold and Silver, we see two very interesting suggestions setting up :

• First, Gold may attempt a rally to a level above $1700 before March/April 2020 and potentially extend this rally to well above $1850 by August/September 2020.

• Second, Silver appears to lag behind this Gold rally by about 7 to 8 months. Silver does not appear to want to start a rally until well after July or August 2020.

If we consider what happened in 2008/09 with the global credit market crisis, both Gold and Silver contracted lower near the start of this crisis (in late 2008). Eventually, Gold began to move higher in August/September 2009 (well into the crisis event). Silver didn’t really start to accelerate higher will August 2010 – a full 12 months after the Gold rally started.

Our ADL system is suggesting that the Silver rally will lag behind the gold rally by about 10 to 14 months given the ADL predictions for price activity in 2020. Thus, Gold may continue to rally much higher fairly early in 2020, yet we won’t see much upside movement in Silver till after July 2020.

Monthly Gold ADL Chart

This first Monthly Gold ADL chart highlights the ADL predictive modeling systems suggestion related to future price targets. We can see the upside move in Gold should begin with an upside target near $1600-1625 over the next 60+ days. After that, the rally should accelerate higher in April/May 2020 with another move higher towards $1700-1725. By August/September 2020, Gold should attempt a rally to levels above $1800-1850 and then begin to consolidate above $1800 for a few months.

Silver Monthly ADL Chart

This Silver Monthly ADL chart suggests that Metals will react very similar in 2020 to what happened in 2008-09. While Gold began to rally in August 2009, Silver did not begin to accelerate higher till August/September 2010. This delay in the understanding that Silver presents valid protection against risk may take place in this current upside rally in Gold. If the ADL predictions are accurate, then Silver will continue to provide buying opportunities for many months near $17.50-$18.00 before a major upside price advance begin.

By July 2020, Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting Silver will advance to levels above $18.25, then begin a major price advance to levels above $19-20 fairly quickly. Please keep in mind the scope of these predictions related to the global markets and the U.S. Presidential elections. We read into this that a lot of chaos/turmoil may be taking place in the US/World after June/July 2020.

Weekly Gold Chart

This last chart is a Weekly Gold chart highlighting our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs and the major resistance level that has just been broken in Gold. The heavy GREEN arc and the BLACKLINE that we’ve drawn on this chart represent massive resistance originating from the lows near August 2018 in Gold. We believe this resistance level, once broken, will prompt a major upside price move in Gold to levels closer to or above $1700. If this price advance in Gold aligns well with our ADL predictions, then we believe fear will continue to drive future a future price advance in Gold and that fear may be related to continued Global stock market concerns and the U.S. elections.

2020 may be a very good year for precious metals traders who are able to identify solid entry trades for these moves. If our ADL predictions are accurate, Gold should rally over 25% before the end of 2020. Silver may rally as much as 15% before the end of 2020. The timing of these moves suggests Gold traders will have opportunities for bigger price advanced early in 2020 and will begin a larger upside price move after February/March 2020. Silver will begin an upside price move after basing near the March/April 2020.

2020 is going to be a fantastic year for skilled technical traders. Join us and our valued members in finding great trades and incredible opportunities in the markets by joining The Technical Traders.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd.

100% Measured Moves May Signal a Top

One type of Fibonacci price structure we use to attempt to measure price trends and identify potential tops/bottoms is the “100% Measured Move” structure. This is a price structure where a previous price move is almost perfectly replicated in a subsequent price trend after a brief period of retracement or price correction. These types of patterns happen all the time in various forms across multitudes of symbols to create very solid trading signals for those that are capable of identifying trends and opportunities using this technique. If you want my daily analysis and trade ideas, be sure to get my updates by joining my free trend signals email list.

The first thing we look for is a strong price trend or the initially confirmed reversal of a price trend. We find that these trending price ranges and initial “impulse trends” tend to prompt 100% measured moves fairly accurately. The explosive middle trend is where one can’t assume any type of Fibonacci 100% measured move will happen. Those explosive moves in a trend that tend to happen in the middle of a price trend are what we call the “expansion wave” of a trend and will typically be 160% or more the size of the initial impulse trend.

These trade setups we call the “100% measured moves” are naturally occurring price rotations that skilled traders can use to identify strong trade potential setups. They are more common in rotating markets where a moderate trend bias is in place (for example in the current YM or ES chart).

First, let’s take a look at this YM Weekly Chart to highlight the most recent 100% Measured Move. The original upside price move between June 2019 and July 2019 resulted in a 2787 point price rally that replicated between August 2019 and November 2019 – after a brief price retracement. Currently, price is rotating near the peak of this 100% measured price move near 27,875 while attempting to set up a new price trend.

In this ES Weekly example chart, we see a 100% Measured Move that originated in June 2019 and ended in July 2019 – just like on the YM chart. Although the completion of the 100% measured move didn’t originate until the low that formed before price rallied to take out the previous high near 3029.50. Remember, the other facets of Fibonacci price theory are also still at play in the markets while these 100% Measured Moves are taking place. Thus, rotation between a previous price peak and valley (without establishing any new price highs or new price low) are considered “price rotation” – not trending. The 100% Measured Move that did take place recently did complete a full 100% advancement and is now stalling near the 3040 level peak.

If you are not familiar with some of my forecasting and trading strategies for trading the S&P 500, or my gold trading signals be sure to click those links to see some pretty interesting charts like these.

SP500 Index Trend Identification and Trade Signal System

Cycle and Price Prediction System

Concluding Thoughts

Once these 100% measured moves complete, price usually attempts to stall or wash out a bit before attempting to establish a new price trend. At this point, given the examples we’ve illustrated, we believe the US market will enter a period of rotation and moderate volatility as these 100% measured moves have completed the upside price advance for now. Some level of price rotation after these 100% measured moves have completed will potentially allow for another attempt at a future 100% price advance after setting up a new price leg.

These techniques don’t always work, we recently got stopped out on a TVIX (vix/volatility trade for a loss) but we just close out our thirst natural gas trade for a quick 7% profit. The previous UGAZ trade netted 20%, and the one before that was 7.95%.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, but stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short term swing trading and long term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2 year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible with our BLACK FRIDAY offer, PLUS get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

Crude Oil Fails at Critical Fibonacci Level

Crude Oil recently rallied up to the $63 level and failed. This level is a key Fibonacci price level based on our proprietary adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system. It represents a Fibonacci Long Trigger Level that would suggest that a new bullish price trend could setup if and when the price of Crude Oil rallies and closes above this level.

The fact that Crude Oil rallied above this level early on Monday, May 13, and failed to hold above this level suggests this is a failed price rally and a failed attempt to rotate higher. The failure of this price move suggests that Crude Oil may fall below current support, near $61, and begin a new downside price leg over the next 10+ trading sessions.

This Daily Crude Oil chart highlights the narrow price range, between $61 and $64.75, where a range of support and resistance levels are found with our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system. The fact that this failed price rally cleared the $63 level, then fell sharply afterward suggests that support for any upside price rally in Crude Oil is very weak. We would expect the price to rotate lower and retest the $61 level before breaking this level and moving much lower to find ultimate support.

We continue to attempt to reinforce one basic Fibonacci theory price rule for all of our followers to understand: Price must ALWAYS attempt to establish new price highs or new price lows at ALL TIMES.

We want to continue to push this message out to our followers so they can begin to understand how this price theory rule actually works in real-time application. This failed attempt to break the Bullish Fibonacci price trigger level is/was an attempt to establish a new price high. Failure to establish this new price high suggests that price will attempt to establish a new price low.

This weekly Crude Oil chart highlights the key Fibonacci trigger price levels that are located in a very narrow range near $63.25. The failed move higher, suggests a new price low will be attempted and ultimate support is currently near the $52.25 level.

With the US/China trade new still hitting the news cycles, we expect some extended volatility in the markets as well as currency price fluctuations in an attempt to mitigate the trade/stock market volatility/pricing. Additionally, we expect commodity price levels to come under continued pressure for two main reasons:

A. the U.S. Presidential election cycle continue to draw attention away from economic activity, and....

B. the global economy is already showing signs of economic and manufacturing weakness.

This US/China trade issue will certainly put more pressure on commodity prices while creating a renewed level of FEAR in the markets.

As we’ve been warning everyone for the past 5+ months – get ready for some really big moves in 2019 and 2020. This type of market is a skilled traders dream come true. Big moves, big rotations, and big profits. Also, if you have not read our Recent Gold Bottom article be sure to read that now.

This is proving to be an incredible trading year for traders who follow our trade alerts newsletter.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think it's time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 4 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE 

(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE 

(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 4 more silver rounds I’m giving away ​​​​​​​so upgrade or join now before it's too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!
Chris Vermeulen

How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends

It is becoming evident that the US/Chinese trade issues are going to become a point of contention for the markets going forward. We’ve been review as much news as possible in an attempt to build a consensus for the future of the U.S. markets and global markets. As of last week, it appears any potential trade deal with China has reset back to square one. The news we are reading suggests that China wants to reset their commitments with the US, remove all tariffs and wants the US to commit to buying certain levels of Chinese goods in the future. Additionally, China has yet to commit to stopping the IP/Technology theft from U.S. companies – which is a very big contention for the US.

This suggests the past 6+ months of trade talks have completely broken down and that this trade issue will likely become a market driver over the next 12+ months. The global markets had anticipated a deal to be reached by the end of March 2019. At that time, Trump announced that he was extending talks with China without installing any new tariffs. The intent was to show commitment with China to reach a deal at that time – quickly.

It appears that China had different plans – the intention to delay and ignore U.S. requests. It is very likely that China has worked to secure some type of “plan B” type of scenario over the past 6+ months and they may feel they are negotiating from a position of power at this time. Our assumption is that both the U.S. and China feel their interests are best served by holding their cards close to their chests while pushing the other side to breakdown through prolonged negotiations.

Our observations are that an economic shift is continuing to take place throughout the globe that may see these US/China trade issues become the forefront issue over the next 12 to 24 months – possibly lasting well past the November 2020 US Presidential election cycle. It seems obvious that China is digging in for a prolonged negotiation process while attempting to hold off another round of tariffs from the US. Additionally, China is dealing with an internal process of trying to shift away from “shadow banking” to eliminate the risks associated with unreported corporate and private debt issues.

The limited, yet still valid, resources we have from within China are suggesting that layoffs are very common right now and that companies are not hiring as they were just a few months ago. One of our friends/sources suggested the company he worked for has been laying off employees for over 30 days now and he just found out he was laid off last week. He works in the financial field.

We believe the long term complications resulting from a prolonged U.S./China trade war may create a foundational shift within the global markets over the next 16 to 24+ months headed into the November 2020 U.S. Elections. We’ve already authored articles about how the prior 24 months headed into major U.S. elections tend to be filled with price rotation while an initial downside price move is common within about 16+ months of a major US election event. This year may turn out to prompt an even bigger price rotation.

U.S. Stock Market volatility just spiked to levels well above 20 – levels not seen since October/November 2018, when the markets fell nearly 20% before the end of 2018. The potential for increased price volatility over the next 12+ months seems rather high with all of the foreign positioning and expectations that are milling around. It seems like the next 16+ months could be filled with incredibly high volatility, price rotation and opportunity for skilled traders.

Our primary concern is that the continued trade war between the U.S. and China spills over into other global markets as a constricted price range based trading environment. Most of the rest of the world is still trying to spark some increased levels of economic growth after the 2008-09 market crisis. The current market environment does not settle well for investor confidence, growth, and future success. The combination of a highly contested U.S. Presidential election, US/China trade issues, a struggling general foreign market, currency fluctuations attempting to mitigate capital risks and other issues, it seems the global stock markets are poised for a very big increase in volatility and price rotation over the next 2 years or so.

Our first focus is on the Hang Seng Index. This Weekly chart shows just how dramatic the current price rotation has been over the past few weeks and how a defined price channel could be setting up in the HSI to prompt a much larger downside objective. Should continue trade issues persist and should China, through the course of negotiating with the U.S., expose any element of risk perceived by the rest of the world, the potential for further price contraction is very real. China is walking a very fine line right now as Trump is pushing issues (trade issues and IP/Technology issues) to the forefront of the trade negotiations. In our opinion, the very last thing China wants is their dirty laundry, shady deals and political leadership strewn across the global news cycles over the next 24+ months.

The DAX Weekly Index is showing a similar price pattern. A very clear upper price trend channel which translates into a very clear downside price objective is price continues lower. Although the DAX is not related directly to the US/China trade negotiations, the global markets are far more interconnected now than ever before. Any rotation lower in China will likely result in a moderate price decrease in many of the major global market indexes.

As we’ve suggested within our earlier research posts, U.S. election cycles tend to prompt massive price rotations when the election cycles are intense. In our next post PART II of this report, we talk about what happened in the past election cycles reviewing the monthly charts and weekly SP500 index charts which are very telling in what could be about to happen next for the stock market from an investors standpoint.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think it's time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 7 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

One Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE (Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

Two Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE (Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 13 more silver rounds I’m giving away ​​​​​​​so upgrade or join now before it's too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen
Stay tuned for PART II next!

U.S. Stock Markets Could Rally Beyond Expectations

Late Sunday afternoon, President Trump surprised the global markets with the announcement of increased trade tariffs with China relating to the ongoing trade negotiations and delayed trade talks between the two global superpowers. The global markets reacted immediately upon the open Sunday night (Asian open). The VIX short position puts quite a bit of professional traders at risk of big losses today while those of us that were prepared for an increase in volatility and price rotation is poised for some incredible opportunities.

The U.S. stock market is set up for a price move that will likely make many people very wealthy while frustrating many others over the next few months. We’ve recently posted many articles regarding the 2020 U.S. Presidential election cycle and the fear cycle that comes from these major political events. In November 2016, we remember watching Gold rally $60 early in the election night, then fall $100 as news began reporting the surprise winner. There is so much capital, and future capital expectations that ride on these election cycles – it can actually drive the markets in one direction or another.

Get Our Free Market Research Right Here

Right now, we have two things we want to alert you to regarding our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling utility. First, the current trend is Bullish and the chance of a downside price move is still valid. Remember, one of the primary price rules within Fibonacci price theory is that price must ALWAYS attempt to seek out new highs and new lows – at all times. This means that once price establishes new price highs, any failure to continue establishing new price highs, through standard price rotation, will result in its price attempting to establish new price lows.

So, as we continue with our expectations, remember that any failure of price to continue the push higher means it WILL rotate lower and attempt to establish new price lows.

Taking a look at this IWM Monthly chart shows a very clear price rotation near the end of 2018 and that the current price has yet to rally above the October 2018 highs. In this instance, we have a FAILURE to establish new price highs within the current price move. We also have a new price low established in December 2018. This high and low sets up the range of $173.99 and $125.80. Fibonacci price theory tells us that PRICE WILL attempt to establish a new price high or new price low from within this range. Therefore, the price WILL either continue to rally higher and break the $173.99 level or price WILL reverse lower, without reaching the $173.99 level and target the $125.80 level.

Our modeling system is currently telling us that price and trend is bullish and that the current price level has clearly rallied above the Fibonacci price trigger levels near $143.50. Should price rotate lower and breach these Fibonacci price trigger levels, then we would expect the price to move much lower. Right now, we don’t expect that to happen based on a strong U.S. economy, employment and earnings.

This Monthly SPX chart shows a similar setup – yet the main difference is that the current HIGH PRICES are clearly above the October 2018 previous highs. Thus, in this instance the SPX has reached “new price highs” as a component of Fibonacci price theory and, because of this fact, must continue to strive for new price highs or risk failing and rotating lower to establish new price lows.

In fact, the past three trading sessions are proprietary SP500 index trading system issued two quick winning trades for members. The two trades pulled 2.5% and 2% out of the market in less than 24 hours from the entry prices. This momentum and trend trading system are going to be a new trading weapon for us to follow and trade the markets once we implement this into the member’s area for viewing the charts and signals at any time.

Take a look at last weeks trade and today’s trade which both hit T1 (Target 1).

Take a look at the chart below then consider what that last statement really means. It suggests that we have already reached into new price high territory. Fibonacci theory suggests that “once new price highs are established, the trend MUST continue to attempt to establish new higher price highs – OR FAIL and attempt to establish a new price low. Well, a failure at this level could mean a price move all the way back towards recent lows near December 2018 – near $2346.58. Therefore, it is critical that we see other markets, like the IWM, continue to push higher in an attempt to support this broader upside price move for all the U.S. major stocks.

The most important factor going forward is to be prepared to think and react very quickly to price rotations, news, and the election cycle process. Take a look at how volatile the market has become over the past 12 months and consider the fact that we could continue to see this type of volatility in the markets for the next 15+ months – at least through the election cycle process.

Remember also that the US economy is operating on very strong fundamentals, employment, and outputs. Disruption of future expectations could lead to a massive displacement of capital in the global markets. Watch crude oil, gold, silver and other commodities for any signs of weakness. And pay attention to the levels we are suggesting in this research post. If the SPX falls below $2600 – be prepared. If the IWM falls below $142 – be prepared. Price is always seeking out new price highs and new price lows. If it can’t get one side, it will attempt to get the other.

The global market “Shake out” that we wrote about weeks ago is just starting. Our expectations are that an increase in price volatility, as well as a minor price rotation, will take place in the U.S. markets before a continued upside price bias will drive prices higher again. There are two main drivers that will become leaders of any bigger rotation in the global markets – Metals and Commodities. If we begin to see a collapse in commodity prices, pretty much across the board, while metals breakout into a rally, then we are setting up for a bigger downside price move. Until that happens, continue to expect an upside price bias to continue in the U.S. stock market.

Secondly, should a massive currency revaluation event take place, where global currencies weaken as the U.S. Dollar stays strong, then we could be setting up for a “slow unraveling” of foreign debt markets and foreign equity markets. This would be almost like a “slow bleed out” as a currency devaluation event prompt incredible pricing pressures on local foreign governments to support their economies. These devaluation events, if they happen, could prompt a hyper inflation type of event that could disrupt weaker nations to such a degree that they could weaken world leading economies that have exposure to these foreign nations – Think China/Russia.

Our advice continues to be to look for opportunities as the volatility increases and continue to expect an upside price bias in the U.S. stock market – at least until we have any strong evidence that price trend has changed. Don’t buy into the doom-sayers just yet. In our opinion, this U.S. upside price move is not over yet.

If you want to become a technical trader and pull money from the markets during times when most others cannot be sure to join the Wealth Trading Newsletter today. Plus, for a few days only I’m giving away and shipping Free Silver Rounds to subscribers who join our select membership levels.

Chris Vermeulen @ The Technical Traders

Waiting for the Russell 2000 to Confirm the Next Big Move

While we have recently suggested the US stock market is poised for further upside price activity with a moderately strong upside price “bias”, our researchers continue to believe the U.S. stock markets will not break out to the upside until the Russell 2000 breaks the current price channel, Bull Flag, formation. Even though the U.S. stock markets open with a gap higher this week, skilled traders must pay attention to how the Mid-Caps and the Russell 2000 are moving throughout this move.

As we continue to advise our clients that the upside pricing cycle in the U.S. stock market is being underestimated, see this research post: we also believe that increased volatility and price rotation will continue to drive larger rotations in price before the final breakout upside move takes place. We want to continue to warn traders that we still don’t have any confirmed upside breakout with price continuing to stay within this price channel in the Russell 2000. Eventually, when and if the price does breakout to the upside, we will have a very clear indication that continued higher prices and a larger upside move is happening. Until then, we need to stay cautious about the types and levels of rotation that continue within the markets.

Recently, volatility has started to increase as can be seen in this VIX chart. If the Russell 2000 is not able to break this trend channel with this current upside price move, then we fully expect continued price rotation in the U.S. stock markets and another increase in the VIX as this rotation takes place. The NQ recently rotated downward by nearly 4% while historical volatility continues to narrow. When volatility diminishes in extended price trends, we’ve learned to expect aggressive price rotation can become more of a concern. We expect the VIX to spike above 16~18 on moderate volatility as we get closer to the cycle inflection date near June/July 2019.

Volatility Index – VIX chart by TradingView

Overall, our researchers believe the upside price bias in the U.S. stock market will continue for another 30+ days as our research and predictions regarding precious metals and the longer term equities price cycles continue to play out. Skilled traders need to be aware that this upside price bias may include larger price rotation and volatility as we get closer to the May/June/July 2019 cycle inflection points. Stay aware of the risks as 4~6%+ price rotations should be expected over the next 30+ days throughout this upside price bias.

Do you want to find a team of dedicated researchers and traders that can help you find and execute better trades in 2019 and beyond? Please visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you prepare for the big moves in the global markets and find better opportunities for greater success in the future. Our team of researchers and traders continue to scan the markets for new trades and unique opportunities.

How Bitcoin Will Make You Big Money Again

If you are a Bitcoin fan or looking for the next opportunity for a Bitcoin rally, you may not have long to wait before a price breakout takes place. Our research team at The Technical Traders believes a price breakout may occur before the end of 2018 – the only question is will it be a breakout rally or a breakdown crash before the next mega rally?

Cryptos and, in particular, Bitcoin has increased in popularity and adoption over the past 24 months across the globe. Recently, Citigroup has announced new technology making Crypto transactions more secure and reducing the risk of such transactions. Additionally, Circle recently announced a US Dollar based Crypto currency that is backed by Goldman-Sachs. News from Europe is that the EU has been urged to adopt common Crypto Currency rules that will fuel more attention and enterprise on developing suitable Crypto solutions for the European markets.

All of this plays into our research that a breakout/breakdown is inevitable and it is just a matter of time before this coiling price consolidation “apexes” and expands.

This chart shows massive breakdown washout below $6000 taking it back to prices before crypto became popular in early 2017.

This next chart below shows our cycle analysis and how much bitcoin moved from our cycle bottoms to tops. We are now at NEARING a critical juncture of a $6000 breakdown which is clearly a support level, and a potential major cycle bottom or continuation down cycle. Huge money can be made from this extreme volatility that is about to unfold and savvy technical traders can see the profit potential unfolding.

We urge all traders to keep Cryptos in focus over the next few weeks and months. Our research team shares our proprietary analysis and research with our paid members regarding the Crypto currency trends and trades.

If you want to learn what we believe will be the next big move in the Crypto markets, then visit The Technical Traders to learn more. Our proprietary modeling systems are clearly showing us what we should expect over the next few weeks and months. As a member, you will have access to this research and benefit from our Daily Research Videos.

Chris Vermeulen

How to Trade as We Near March Top in Equities

Our focus is to provide you with updated and accurate market price predictions for all of 2018, we believe we are entering a period that will be fantastic for traders and active investors. We believe this recent volatility has shaken out the low volatility expectations and will allow the markets to start moving in a more normal rotational mode going forward. This means we’ll have lots of trading opportunities to profit from.

For those of you who have not been following our research over the past 2 to 3 months, we urge you to visit our Technical Traders Ltd. website to read our published research and to learn how we’ve been calling these moves in the markets for our members. We called the early 2018 market rally weeks before it started. We called the lower price rotation over a month before it happened. We called the bottom in this price correction almost to the day and told our members that we believed a very quick Pennant price formation was set up that will drive prices higher which we have seen this week.

Members know price should move higher leading to a March 15 price cycle peak. After that point, we’ll refresh our analysis for our members and attempt to provide further guidance. Today/Friday we closed our Short position in UVXY for a quick 50% in 9 days.

In this post, we are going to focus on one of our price modeling systems based on Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling and show you why we believe this recent price move will likely stabilize within a range while attempting future moves. Let’s start with the INDU.

WEEKLY DOW JONES CHART

This first chart is the INDU Weekly chart with our Fibonacci Modeling system at work. We’ve highlighted certain areas with notes to help you understand it in more detail. This adaptive modeling system tracks price high and low points in various cycle lengths, then attempts to adapt a major and moderate cycle analysis model to key Fibonacci predictive points. The end result is that we can see where key Fibonacci price trigger levels are and also see what our predictive modeling system is telling us where prices is likely headed.

This weekly, chart shows us that the current support level (originating from near April 2017) is nearly exactly where the current price correction found support. This level is currently acting as a strong base for current price action and will likely continue to provide very strong support going forward. You can also see the Bearish Fibonacci Price Level near 25,776 that is acting like Resistance. Notice that this Bearish Fibonacci Price Level also coincides with the BLUE Fibonacci projected price level.

It is still our opinion that the US major markets will continue moderate price rotation within these levels for the next 5+ days before reaching an intermediate price low cycle near February 21. After this price low cycle is reached, we believe a new price advance will begin to drive the US majors higher reaching a peak near March 15.

DAILY DOW JONES CHART

This next INDU Daily chart provides more detail of our projected analysis. Again, please read the notes we’ve made on this chart to assist you in understanding how we are reading it and interpreting it. The most recent price peak and trough clearly show the volatility spike that happened last week. It also shows us that the recent trough in price aligned almost perfectly with a Bullish Fibonacci Price Level from November 2017. We interpret this as a clear “double bottom” formation at Fibonacci Support.

The purple horizontal line is the Support Level originating from the earlier, Weekly, chart for reference.

This Daily chart shows more detail in terms of the Fibonacci Projected Price Levels and also shows the wide range of price that we are currently experiencing. Over time, this wide range will likely diminish a bit as the trend continues to consolidate price rotation into more narrow bands, but right now we have a very wide range of price volatility that we have to deal with.

Additionally, the current upward price rotation is above the Bullish Fibonacci Price Level from the recent lows. This is a clear indication that prices want to continue to push higher till some new price peak is in place. We expect that will happen fairly soon.

Notice how the Fibonacci Projected Price Levels are quite a way away from the current price levels? This is because the recent increase in volatility is alerting the price modeling system that we expect larger range price rotation. As newer and more moderate price rotations form, these levels will begin to consolidate a bit with new price levels.

As of right now, our analysis has really not changed much since last week. We believe the Feb 21 price low will prompt a rally into the March 15 price peak. At that time, we’ll take a fresh look at these modeling systems to see what they can tell us about the future.

DAILY SP500 (SSO ETF) CHART

The last chart I wanted to share with you is the Daily SSO chart. This chart helps to firm up our analysis of what to expect in the immediate future as well as continues to support our analysis that the US Majors will likely stall near current levels and retrace slightly headed into the Feb 21 price low. Remember, we don’t believe this Feb 21 price low will be anywhere close to the recent lows. This move lower will be much more subdued and moderate in size and scope.

With this SSO chart, the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is showing a potential “Major Bottom” near the recent lows. This happens when the system identifies a potentially massive or major price bottom. Over time, the modeling system will confirm this trigger or replace it with a new trigger when it forms.

We still see the massive price volatility in this chart. We still see the Fibonacci Price Trigger Levels that tell us we are below the Bearish Price Trigger (near the recent top) and above the Bullish Price Trigger (near the recent bottom), so what should expect price to do? At this point, the most recent Price Trigger Breach is the Bullish Price Trigger – thus we are expecting prices to continue higher overall. The new Bearish Fibonacci Price Trigger, below the current prices, is what we would watch for any signs of price weakness. When that level is breached, then we begin a new potential down leg.

Right now, we will issue this one simple warning – the upside move is likely to be ending soon and preparing for our February 21 price low point. The fact that prices are showing that they’ve already reached the Fibonacci Projected Price Level is telling us this upside leg may be over for now which is the reason we exited our short UVXY position here for a 50% profit.

Next, we expect the US majors to rotate lower for a few days headed into a February 21 price low. This will be following by an almost immediate and strong upside push to a March 15th price peak.

This means we will be setting up for some great trades over the next few days/weeks. Imagine being able to know that near February 20-22, we should be able to “pick” the best opportunities for quick trades where the US majors begin a new up leg? Also, imagine how critical this type of information can be to you going forward?

Our research team at The Technical Traders site has a combined 53 years of trading and analysis experience. We develop specialized and proprietary price modeling systems, like these, to assist us in being able to provide our members with an “edge” in the markets. Of course, we are not always 100% accurate with our predictions – no one can be 100% accurate. We simply do our best to make sure our members get the best we can offer them each and every day. We want them to understand the opportunities that are playing out and we help them find the best trade triggers for profits each week.

Stay tuned for our next post on Sunday with an instant trade setup, 

so be sure to join our free mailing list!

If you find this information valuable and would like to include it in your daily trading activities, visit here and sign up for the Technical Traders Wealth Building Newsletter today!

Chris Vermeulen

Three Trades for This Wild Market

It has been an emotional ride for most traders since stocks started to sell off last Friday in a big way. This crash we just experienced is VERY much like the Aug 2015 crash. Price and volatility both have parabolic price movements that could either make you a lot of money or lose a bundle depending on where your money was positioned.

This post is to quickly share three recent trades we have taken one of them (REALLY BAD) and what to expect in the markets moving forward.

On Monday while the markets were under serious pressure cascading lower our only open position at the time was DUST. This is an inverse gold miners fund that allows us to profit when gold stocks fall in value. We had been expecting gold stocks to fall for a couple weeks and got into the position on Jan 26th. Gold stocks fell quickly and we took partial profits at 11% within 3 days.

We continued to hold the balance of DUST in anticipation of a second leg down in gold stocks which our technical analysis was showing should happen within a couple days which it did. On Monday, Feb 5th while stocks were under more selling pressure money rotated into the gold stocks as a safe haven and that is we decided to close the position with a 20% profit it 7 days. This was a good trade, but the next one isn’t.

You Can See Our Play By Play Trade Alerts for This Here

Also, on February 5th we were anticipating the panic selling and looking for a washout low to be put in place Monday/Tuesday of this week. Thus far everything has played out exactly as we expected in terms of price action. What I love about technical analysis is that if done correctly you can predict, or at least have a very good idea of what price should do next, and because we knew panic selling was coming we were not totally caught off guard. But I will admit, I expected half the price movement and volatility that actually took place this time around.

Terribly Unfortunate Trade

* I always short UVXY when the vix is high, and fade the fear. But no shares were available to short Monday.

* The only other way to do this was to buy XIV and inverse VIX fund which works in most cases but not nearly as good as short selling UVXY.

* Volatility jumped 100% Monday, XIV fund imploded and lost 98% of its value catching hedge funds, professional traders, and us off guard.

* XIV is still trading, it will take many months to regain and reduce some of its draw down.

Tuesday's Clawback Trade

During extreme situations like XIV position dropping 98% there are two ways to deal with it. Take the loss and move on, or use the extreme market conditions to get back into a trade and catch the next big move to help minimize XIV draw down. So we took a short sell trade on UVXY Tuesday at the open. The VIX was set to gap sharply higher into a level it has only ever reached a few times in before. By shorting the VIX it means we profit when the VIX falls in value which it did.

We opened the trade right at the opening bell and the VIX when into free fall hitting our first profit target within 18 minutes for a 36% profit. We still hold half the position expecting a larger gain over the next few days. Currently, this short UVXY position is up over 50% and we are looking for roughly 70% before we close it out.

Take a listen to my audio Squawk Box broadcast today to subscribers to get a feel for the XIV, volatility, and the stock market.....Visit Here

CONCLUSION

In short, February has been exciting, to say the least. I feel this price action is a major warning and signal that the bull market is coming to an end. What I feel is going to unfold is similar price action we say from Aug 2015 crash – Feb 2016. Big price rotation, and elevated volatility. And this time, stocks may not find support at the lows created this week and trigger the first leg down in a new bear market.

It’s likely going to take most of 2018 to form and unfold, but we aware…

Join us at Technical Traders Ltd. Wealth Building Newsletter and take advantage of the next major trend changes and profit.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Team

Hidden Gems Shows A Foreboding Future

A quick look at any of the US majors will show most investors that the markets have recently been pushing upward towards new all time highs. These traditional market instruments can be misleading at times when relating the actual underlying technical and fundamental price activities. Today, we are going to explore some research using our custom index instruments that we use to gauge and relate more of the underlying market price action.

What if we told you to prepare for a potentially massive price swing over the next few months? What if we told you that the US and Global markets are setting up for what could be the “October Surprise of 2017” and very few analysts have identified this trigger yet? Michael Bloomberg recently stated “I cannot for the life of me understand why the market keeps going up”. Want to know why this perception continues and what the underlying factors of market price activity are really telling technicians?

At ATP we provide full time dedicated research and trading signal solution for professional and active traders. Our research team has dedicated thousands or hours into developing a series of specialized modeling systems and analysis tools to assist us in finding successful trading opportunities as well as key market fundamentals. In the recent past, we have accurately predicted multiple VIX Spikes, in some cases to the exact day, and market signals that have proven to be great successes for our clients. Today, we’re going to share with you something that you may choose to believe or not – but within 60 days, we believe you’ll be searching the internet to find this article again knowing ATP (Active Trading Partners) accurately predicted one of the biggest moves of the 21st century. Are you ready?

Let’s start with the SPY. From the visual analysis of the chart, below, it would be difficult for anyone to clearly see the fragility of the US or Global markets. This chart is showing a clearly bullish trend with the perception that continued higher highs should prevail.

Additionally, when we review the QQQ we see a similar picture. Although the volatility is typically greater in the NASDAQ vs. the S&P, the QQQ chart presents a similar picture. Strong upward price activity in addition to historically consistent price advances. What could go wrong with these pictures – right? The markets are stronger than ever and as we’ve all heard “it’s different this time”.

Most readers are probably saying “yea, we’ve heard it before and we know – buy the dips”.

Recently, we shared some research with you regarding longer term time/price cycles (3/7/10 year cycles) and prior to that, we’ve been warning of a Sept 28~29, 2017 VIX Spike that could be massive and a “game changer” in terms of trend. We’ve been warning our members that this setup in price is leading us to be very cautious regarding new trading signals as volatility should continue to wane prior to this VIX Spike and market trends may be muted and short lived. We’ve still made a few calls for our clients, but we’ve tried to be very cautious in terms of timing and objectives.

Right now, the timing could not be any better to share this message with you and to “make it public” that we are making this prediction. A number of factors are lining up that may create a massive price correction in the near future and we want to help you protect your investments and learn to profit from this move and other future moves. So, as you read this article, it really does not matter if you believe our analysis or not – the proof will become evident (or not) within less than 60 days based on our research. One way or another, we will be proven correct or incorrect by the markets.

Over the past 6+ years, capital has circled the globe over and over attempting to find suitable ROI. It is our belief that this capital has rooted into investment vehicles that are capable of producing relatively secure and consistent returns based on the global economy continuing without any type of adverse event. In other words, global capital is rather stable right now in terms of sourcing ROI and capital deployment throughout the globe. It would take a relatively massive event to disrupt this capital process at the moment.

Asia/China are pushing the upper bounds of a rather wide trading channel and price action is setting up like the SPY and QQQ charts, above. A clear upper boundary is evident as well as our custom vibrational/frequency analysis arcs that are warning us of a potential change in price trend. You can see from the Red Arrow we’ve drawn, any attempt to retest the channel lows would equate to an 8% decrease in current prices.

Still, there is more evidence that we are setting up for a potentially massive global price move. The metals markets are the “fear/greed” gauge of the planet (or at least they have been for hundreds of years). When the metals spike higher, fear is entering the markets and investors avoid share price risks. When the metals trail lower, greed is entering the markets and investors chase share price value.

Without going into too much detail, this custom metals chart should tell you all you need to know. Our analysis is that we are nearing the completion of Wave C within an initial Wave 1 (bottom formation) from the lows in Dec 2016. Our prediction is that the completion of Wave #5 will end somewhere above the $56 level on this chart (> 20%+ from current levels). The completion of this Wave #5 will lead to the creation of a quick corrective wave, followed by a larger and more aggressive upward expansion wave that could quickly take out the $75~95 levels. Quite possibly before the end of Q1 2018.

We’ve termed this move the “Rip your face off Metals Rally”. You can see from this metals chart that we have identified multiple cycle and vibrational/frequency cycles that are lining up between now and the end of 2017. It is critical to understand the in order for this move to happen, a great deal of fear needs to reenter the global markets. What would cause that to happen??

Now for the “Hidden Gem”....

We’ve presented some interesting and, we believe, accurate market technical analysis. We’ve also been presenting previous research regarding our VIX Spikes and other analysis that has been accurate and timely. Currently, our next VIX Spike projection is Sept 28~29, 2017. We believe this VIX Spike could be much larger than the last spike highs and could lead to, or correlate with, a disruptive market event. We have ideas of what that event might be like, but we don’t know exactly what will happen at this time or if the event will even become evident in early October 2017. All we do know is the following....

The Head-n-Shoulders pattern we first predicted back in June/July of this year has nearly completed and we have only about 10~14 trading days before the Neck Line will be retested. This is the Hidden Gem. This is our custom US Index that we use to filter out the noise of price activity and to more clearly identify underlying technical and price pattern formations. You saw from the earlier charts that the Head n Shoulders pattern was not clearly visible on the SPY or QQQ charts – but on THIS chart, you can’t miss it.

It is a little tough to see on this small chart but, one can see the correlation of our cycle analysis, the key dates of September 28~29 aligning perfectly with vibration/frequency cycles originating from the start of the “head” formation. We have only about 10~14 trading days before the Neck Line will likely be retested and, should it fail, we could see a massive price move to the downside.

What you should expect over the next 10~14 trading days is simple to understand.

Expect continued price volatility and expanded rotation in the US majors.

• Expect the VIX to stay below 10.00 for only a day or two longer before hinting at a bigger spike move (meaning moving above 10 or 11 as a primer)
• Expect the metals markets to form a potential bottom pattern and begin to inch higher as fear reenters the markets _ Expect certain sectors to show signs of weakness prior to this move (possibly technology, healthcare, bio-tech, financials, lending)
• Expect the US majors to appear to “dip” within a 2~4% range and expect the news cycles to continue the “buy the dip” mantra.

The real key to all of this is what happens AFTER October 1st and for the next 30~60 days after. This event will play out as a massive event or a non event. What we do know is that this event has been setting up for over 5 months and has played out almost exactly as we have predicted. Now, we are 10+ days away from a critical event horizon and we are alerting you well in advance that it is, possibly, going to be a bigger event.

Now, I urge all of you to visit our website to learn more about what we do and how we provide this type of advanced analysis and research for our clients. We also provide clear and timely trading signals to our clients to assist them in finding profitable trading opportunities based on our research. Our team of dedicated analysts and researchers do our best to bring you the best, most accurate and advanced research we can deliver. The fact that we called this Head-n-Shoulders formation back in June/July and called multiple VIX Spike events should be enough evidence to consider this call at least a strong possibility.

If you want to take full advantage of the markets to profit from these moves, then join us today here at the Active Trading Partners and become a member.