Watch Chris’ Video Analysis Here
Showing posts with label traders. Show all posts
Showing posts with label traders. Show all posts
Monday, March 25, 2024
The A.I. and Stock Market Tops Are In Final Blow Off Stage
Watch Chris’ Video Analysis Here
Friday, May 12, 2023
Missing The Biggest Stock Market Rallies
Missing The Biggest Stock Market Rallies....Are They Worth The Agony For The Buy and Hold Investor?
I have read so many articles recently from the investment industry and the so called financial professionals about what happens to your investment account value if you don’t follow the buy and hold method.
What I have learned is just how good some professionals are at making people see precisely what they want them to through the use of misleading titles, graphs, and averages. The findings extrapolated from the presented scenarios can be downright unethical when you dig just beneath the surface.
I have read so many articles recently from the investment industry and the so called financial professionals about what happens to your investment account value if you don’t follow the buy and hold method.
What I have learned is just how good some professionals are at making people see precisely what they want them to through the use of misleading titles, graphs, and averages. The findings extrapolated from the presented scenarios can be downright unethical when you dig just beneath the surface.
Monday, March 27, 2023
Gold’s Momentum and Underperforming Gold Miners – Is A Breakout Rally Imminent?
The mismatch in performance between gold and gold miners raises concerns and suggests caution, as it may indicate a temporary rise in gold prices. Gold miners may not catch up with gold prices until the stock market experiences a sustained rally.
The current situation in the gold market remains convoluted and confusing, and the next major super cycle rally may not happen until later this year or next year….Watch Here.
Thursday, December 22, 2022
Why Gold And Oil Falling In Value Are A Bad Sign For 2023
Friday, December 16, 2022
Stock Indexes Rejected At Resistance Signal Another Correction
But if not, we could be in for a doozy of a bear market in the first half of 2023. This week we had more hawkish Fed talk on Wednesday, suggesting that rates will remain higher for a longer period of time....Continue Reading Here.
Monday, January 25, 2021
Technology & Energy Sectors Are Hot – Are You Missing Out?
Recently, we published a research article suggesting a lower U.S. Dollar would prompt major sector rotations in the US and global markets where we highlighted the fact that the Materials, Industrials, Technology, and Discretionary sectors had been the hottest sectors of the past 180 days, but the Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials had shown the best strength over the past 90 days....Read More Here.
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Revisiting Our July 2019 Crude Oil Predictions & Our 2020 Forecast
When it comes to our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system, we get asked questions from our friends and followers about how it could predict a virus event or how it could predict a price event so far out into the future. The truth of the matter is the ADL predictive modeling system doesn’t predict unknown virus, banking or other types of events.
What it does do, quite well we might add, is identify historically accurate price events (almost like unique DNA markers) and attempts to identify future price events that align with recent price bar (DNA) setups. In other words, it maps the markets highest probability outcomes by studying past price activity and using a unique DNA like mapping system. Once this analysis is complete for any chart, we can ask it what is likely to happen in the future.
On July 8, 2019, our researchers did exactly that and posted an article regarding our findings that many people continue to write us about. Some, at first, in total disbelief that Crude Oil could fall to levels below $40 ever again and others that wanted to know how we came up with these numbers. We set our ADL system to show us what is expected on a Monthly Crude Oil chart going forward and it draws the likely outcome and volatility (highs & Lows).
If our ADL predictive modeling is correct, we will see rotation between $47 and $64 over the next 3+ months before a breakdown in price hits in November 2019. This will be followed by two fairly narrow price range months (December 2019 and January 2020) where oil prices will tighten near $45 to $50. After that tightening, we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020 that could see oil prices trade as low as $22 and as high as $51 over a two to three-month span.
The most critical component of this early research is the statement we have timed perfectly with our system was “we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020” and the following price predictions.
The ADL predictive modeling system provided us with a hint that volatility would skyrocket throughout this time in Crude Oil. And, as we all know, this next Daily Crude Oil chart highlights the incredible collapse from early January 2020 (near $65.00) to levels just below $50 in early February. After that, the high price level was near $54.50 and the current low price level is $27.34. We believe this downward price rotation in Crude Oil completely validates our earlier ADL predictive analysis.
Imagine having this type of forecast for our trading and investing! Be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter before closing this page so you don’t miss our next special report!
Based on short term Fibonacci price momentum targets we could see fall as low as $17 per barrel, but this price target will change dramatically over the next few days depending on if oil bounces higher from here it is now.
If our research is correct, Crude oil may find a bottom somewhere near $17 to $24, the potential rally back up to somewhere above $37 - $41 ppb before staging another massive selloff. The massive volatility suggested by the ADL system also suggests a broad price range over the next 60+ days.
Thus, we believe crude oil will attempt to form a bottom below $30, then attempt a brief rally to “fill the gap” (or partially fill the gap). After that, supply side economics will take over and crude oil should begin to move back towards the to $30 price level again – just as our ADL predictive modeling system suggested.
As of today, we are getting dozens of emails asking about what we see for the US major markets and global markets with our systems. Everyone wants to know “what’s next?”. Most of that research is delivered to our active subscribers/members and you can gain access to that information simply by visiting my website. You really don’t want to miss these next huge moves.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short term swing traders.
Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders
What it does do, quite well we might add, is identify historically accurate price events (almost like unique DNA markers) and attempts to identify future price events that align with recent price bar (DNA) setups. In other words, it maps the markets highest probability outcomes by studying past price activity and using a unique DNA like mapping system. Once this analysis is complete for any chart, we can ask it what is likely to happen in the future.
On July 8, 2019, our researchers did exactly that and posted an article regarding our findings that many people continue to write us about. Some, at first, in total disbelief that Crude Oil could fall to levels below $40 ever again and others that wanted to know how we came up with these numbers. We set our ADL system to show us what is expected on a Monthly Crude Oil chart going forward and it draws the likely outcome and volatility (highs & Lows).
Here is a link to the original article....Just Visit Here
This Screen Capture From The Original July 2019 Article Clearly States
If our ADL predictive modeling is correct, we will see rotation between $47 and $64 over the next 3+ months before a breakdown in price hits in November 2019. This will be followed by two fairly narrow price range months (December 2019 and January 2020) where oil prices will tighten near $45 to $50. After that tightening, we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020 that could see oil prices trade as low as $22 and as high as $51 over a two to three-month span.
The most critical component of this early research is the statement we have timed perfectly with our system was “we believe an extremely volatile price move will happen in February through April 2020” and the following price predictions.
The ADL predictive modeling system provided us with a hint that volatility would skyrocket throughout this time in Crude Oil. And, as we all know, this next Daily Crude Oil chart highlights the incredible collapse from early January 2020 (near $65.00) to levels just below $50 in early February. After that, the high price level was near $54.50 and the current low price level is $27.34. We believe this downward price rotation in Crude Oil completely validates our earlier ADL predictive analysis.
Imagine having this type of forecast for our trading and investing! Be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter before closing this page so you don’t miss our next special report!
What's Next With The Price of Crude Oil?
If our research is correct, Crude oil may find a bottom somewhere near $17 to $24, the potential rally back up to somewhere above $37 - $41 ppb before staging another massive selloff. The massive volatility suggested by the ADL system also suggests a broad price range over the next 60+ days.
Thus, we believe crude oil will attempt to form a bottom below $30, then attempt a brief rally to “fill the gap” (or partially fill the gap). After that, supply side economics will take over and crude oil should begin to move back towards the to $30 price level again – just as our ADL predictive modeling system suggested.
As of today, we are getting dozens of emails asking about what we see for the US major markets and global markets with our systems. Everyone wants to know “what’s next?”. Most of that research is delivered to our active subscribers/members and you can gain access to that information simply by visiting my website. You really don’t want to miss these next huge moves.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short term swing traders.
Visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders
Saturday, February 22, 2020
Gold Rallies as Fear Take Center Stage
Gold has rallied extensively from the lows near $1560 over the past 2 weeks. At first, this rally didn’t catch too much attention with traders, but now the rally has reached new highs above $1613 and may attempt a move above $1750 as metals continue to reflect the fear in the global markets.
We’ve been warning our friends and followers of the real potential in precious metals for many months – actually since early 2018. Our predictive modeling system suggests Gold will rally above $1650 very quickly, then possibly stall a bit before continuing higher to target the $1750 range.
The one thing all skilled traders must consider is the longer term fear that is building in the markets. Many traders are concerned about the global economy with the Coronavirus spreading economic worries throughout Asia, Japan, and Europe. We believe this fear will push precious metals continually higher over the next 24+ months with a real upside target above $2100 eventually.
Right now, skilled traders need to understand that wave after wave of higher price rotation will continue to happen in Gold and Silver. If you missed the $1450 level and missed the $1550 level, this is your time to attempt to find your entry point near $1650 or below that level. Ultimately, real fear has yet to result in a parabolic rally in Gold and Silver – but it is likely going to happen within the next 24+ months.
As skilled traders, our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that any price rotation below $1550 would be an excellent buying opportunity. These levels really depend on where the current rally ends and what happens in the global markets over the next 60+ days.
Less than 7 days ago, we published this research article suggesting that our ADL predictive modeling system was telling us that Gold would rally above $1650 within 15 to 30 days. It is very likely this rally will start a multiple leg upside price advance in precious metals where Silver will finally breach the $20 to $21 level as Gold advances higher.
February 13, 2020: Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Will Break Above $1650 Within 15 - 30 Days
Once fear really enters the markets, we’ll see huge sector rotation and a massive price reversion event take place. Historically, Gold and Silver will react to this move, but the parabolic price move in precious metals will come 4 to 6+ months after the reversion event in the global markets. So, from a historical standpoint, any entry-level near current price levels is exceptional.
Trust us, you really don’t want to miss this next move in precious metals. Our Fibonacci price modeling system and Adaptive Dynamic Learning modeling system are suggesting price levels above $2400 as an ultimate upside price target for Gold.
Join my Swing Trading ETF Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders
We’ve been warning our friends and followers of the real potential in precious metals for many months – actually since early 2018. Our predictive modeling system suggests Gold will rally above $1650 very quickly, then possibly stall a bit before continuing higher to target the $1750 range.
The one thing all skilled traders must consider is the longer term fear that is building in the markets. Many traders are concerned about the global economy with the Coronavirus spreading economic worries throughout Asia, Japan, and Europe. We believe this fear will push precious metals continually higher over the next 24+ months with a real upside target above $2100 eventually.
Right now, skilled traders need to understand that wave after wave of higher price rotation will continue to happen in Gold and Silver. If you missed the $1450 level and missed the $1550 level, this is your time to attempt to find your entry point near $1650 or below that level. Ultimately, real fear has yet to result in a parabolic rally in Gold and Silver – but it is likely going to happen within the next 24+ months.
As skilled traders, our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that any price rotation below $1550 would be an excellent buying opportunity. These levels really depend on where the current rally ends and what happens in the global markets over the next 60+ days.
Less than 7 days ago, we published this research article suggesting that our ADL predictive modeling system was telling us that Gold would rally above $1650 within 15 to 30 days. It is very likely this rally will start a multiple leg upside price advance in precious metals where Silver will finally breach the $20 to $21 level as Gold advances higher.
February 13, 2020: Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Will Break Above $1650 Within 15 - 30 Days
Once fear really enters the markets, we’ll see huge sector rotation and a massive price reversion event take place. Historically, Gold and Silver will react to this move, but the parabolic price move in precious metals will come 4 to 6+ months after the reversion event in the global markets. So, from a historical standpoint, any entry-level near current price levels is exceptional.
Trust us, you really don’t want to miss this next move in precious metals. Our Fibonacci price modeling system and Adaptive Dynamic Learning modeling system are suggesting price levels above $2400 as an ultimate upside price target for Gold.
Join my Swing Trading ETF Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders
Sunday, January 26, 2020
The Black Swan Event Begins
As the Asian markets opened on late Sunday, traders expected a reactionary price move related to the threat of the Wuhan virus and the continued news of its spread. The U.S. Dow Jones futures markets opened close to -225 points lower on Sunday afternoon and were nearly -300 points lower within the first 25 minutes of trading. Gold opened $10 higher and continued to rally to a level above $15 higher.
If this is early price activity, or a reactionary price move, related to fear of what may come, then the warnings signs are very clear that global traders and investors believe this virus outbreak may very well turn into a major Black Swan event.
Our research team believes a 5% to 8% rotation should be considered a normal reversion range where price may find immediate support and attempt to rally from these support levels. Anything beyond 10% may set up a much bigger price reversion event, something akin to a Black Swan event. Therefore, we are advising our friends and followers to take the necessary steps to protect your wealth and assets as this move continued to extend.
This 30 minute YM futures chart highlights the reactionary downside price move (GAP) taking place on the open of the Asian markets. This GAP lower may be just the beginning of a much broader downside price move. We are going to have to wait and see what happens related to the Wuhan virus over the next 14+ days.
Gold shot up nearly 1% in early trading on Sunday. Fear is driving investors to pile into the precious metals markets. As news of this virus continues to hit the news cycle, we expect metals will continue to push higher and higher – likely targeting the $1750 level in Gold.
If you want to see what the big money players own check out these gold charts and a very different interpretation of the gold COT Data here.
If you have not been following our research and if you have not already positioned your portfolio for this potential reversion event, then now would be a good time to start taking action. Do some research on the 1855 Third Plague Event in China where more than 15 million people died (nearly 1.25% of the total global population at the time). If those levels hold for this event, then possibly 60 to 80 million people may die over related to this event.
Crude oil is collapsing again and just his out downside target of $53. Our energy sector trade idea is up over 15% already.
Remember, all of this is speculation at this point. Yet we urge traders to act now to take action to prevent further erosion of their wealth and retirement accounts. Visit the Technical Traders website to learn how we can help you plan for these events, protect your wealth, and find great trades.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life changing if handled properly.
Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders
If this is early price activity, or a reactionary price move, related to fear of what may come, then the warnings signs are very clear that global traders and investors believe this virus outbreak may very well turn into a major Black Swan event.
Our research team believes a 5% to 8% rotation should be considered a normal reversion range where price may find immediate support and attempt to rally from these support levels. Anything beyond 10% may set up a much bigger price reversion event, something akin to a Black Swan event. Therefore, we are advising our friends and followers to take the necessary steps to protect your wealth and assets as this move continued to extend.
30 Minute YM Futures Chart
This 30 minute YM futures chart highlights the reactionary downside price move (GAP) taking place on the open of the Asian markets. This GAP lower may be just the beginning of a much broader downside price move. We are going to have to wait and see what happens related to the Wuhan virus over the next 14+ days.
30 Minute Gold Futures Chart
Gold shot up nearly 1% in early trading on Sunday. Fear is driving investors to pile into the precious metals markets. As news of this virus continues to hit the news cycle, we expect metals will continue to push higher and higher – likely targeting the $1750 level in Gold.
If you want to see what the big money players own check out these gold charts and a very different interpretation of the gold COT Data here.
If you have not been following our research and if you have not already positioned your portfolio for this potential reversion event, then now would be a good time to start taking action. Do some research on the 1855 Third Plague Event in China where more than 15 million people died (nearly 1.25% of the total global population at the time). If those levels hold for this event, then possibly 60 to 80 million people may die over related to this event.
Crude oil is collapsing again and just his out downside target of $53. Our energy sector trade idea is up over 15% already.
Remember, all of this is speculation at this point. Yet we urge traders to act now to take action to prevent further erosion of their wealth and retirement accounts. Visit the Technical Traders website to learn how we can help you plan for these events, protect your wealth, and find great trades.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life changing if handled properly.
Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders
Friday, November 29, 2019
100% Measured Moves May Signal a Top
One type of Fibonacci price structure we use to attempt to measure price trends and identify potential tops/bottoms is the “100% Measured Move” structure. This is a price structure where a previous price move is almost perfectly replicated in a subsequent price trend after a brief period of retracement or price correction. These types of patterns happen all the time in various forms across multitudes of symbols to create very solid trading signals for those that are capable of identifying trends and opportunities using this technique. If you want my daily analysis and trade ideas, be sure to get my updates by joining my free trend signals email list.
The first thing we look for is a strong price trend or the initially confirmed reversal of a price trend. We find that these trending price ranges and initial “impulse trends” tend to prompt 100% measured moves fairly accurately. The explosive middle trend is where one can’t assume any type of Fibonacci 100% measured move will happen. Those explosive moves in a trend that tend to happen in the middle of a price trend are what we call the “expansion wave” of a trend and will typically be 160% or more the size of the initial impulse trend.
These trade setups we call the “100% measured moves” are naturally occurring price rotations that skilled traders can use to identify strong trade potential setups. They are more common in rotating markets where a moderate trend bias is in place (for example in the current YM or ES chart).
First, let’s take a look at this YM Weekly Chart to highlight the most recent 100% Measured Move. The original upside price move between June 2019 and July 2019 resulted in a 2787 point price rally that replicated between August 2019 and November 2019 – after a brief price retracement. Currently, price is rotating near the peak of this 100% measured price move near 27,875 while attempting to set up a new price trend.
In this ES Weekly example chart, we see a 100% Measured Move that originated in June 2019 and ended in July 2019 – just like on the YM chart. Although the completion of the 100% measured move didn’t originate until the low that formed before price rallied to take out the previous high near 3029.50. Remember, the other facets of Fibonacci price theory are also still at play in the markets while these 100% Measured Moves are taking place. Thus, rotation between a previous price peak and valley (without establishing any new price highs or new price low) are considered “price rotation” – not trending. The 100% Measured Move that did take place recently did complete a full 100% advancement and is now stalling near the 3040 level peak.
If you are not familiar with some of my forecasting and trading strategies for trading the S&P 500, or my gold trading signals be sure to click those links to see some pretty interesting charts like these.
Once these 100% measured moves complete, price usually attempts to stall or wash out a bit before attempting to establish a new price trend. At this point, given the examples we’ve illustrated, we believe the US market will enter a period of rotation and moderate volatility as these 100% measured moves have completed the upside price advance for now. Some level of price rotation after these 100% measured moves have completed will potentially allow for another attempt at a future 100% price advance after setting up a new price leg.
These techniques don’t always work, we recently got stopped out on a TVIX (vix/volatility trade for a loss) but we just close out our thirst natural gas trade for a quick 7% profit. The previous UGAZ trade netted 20%, and the one before that was 7.95%.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, but stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short term swing trading and long term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2 year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible with our BLACK FRIDAY offer, PLUS get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders
The first thing we look for is a strong price trend or the initially confirmed reversal of a price trend. We find that these trending price ranges and initial “impulse trends” tend to prompt 100% measured moves fairly accurately. The explosive middle trend is where one can’t assume any type of Fibonacci 100% measured move will happen. Those explosive moves in a trend that tend to happen in the middle of a price trend are what we call the “expansion wave” of a trend and will typically be 160% or more the size of the initial impulse trend.
These trade setups we call the “100% measured moves” are naturally occurring price rotations that skilled traders can use to identify strong trade potential setups. They are more common in rotating markets where a moderate trend bias is in place (for example in the current YM or ES chart).
First, let’s take a look at this YM Weekly Chart to highlight the most recent 100% Measured Move. The original upside price move between June 2019 and July 2019 resulted in a 2787 point price rally that replicated between August 2019 and November 2019 – after a brief price retracement. Currently, price is rotating near the peak of this 100% measured price move near 27,875 while attempting to set up a new price trend.
In this ES Weekly example chart, we see a 100% Measured Move that originated in June 2019 and ended in July 2019 – just like on the YM chart. Although the completion of the 100% measured move didn’t originate until the low that formed before price rallied to take out the previous high near 3029.50. Remember, the other facets of Fibonacci price theory are also still at play in the markets while these 100% Measured Moves are taking place. Thus, rotation between a previous price peak and valley (without establishing any new price highs or new price low) are considered “price rotation” – not trending. The 100% Measured Move that did take place recently did complete a full 100% advancement and is now stalling near the 3040 level peak.
If you are not familiar with some of my forecasting and trading strategies for trading the S&P 500, or my gold trading signals be sure to click those links to see some pretty interesting charts like these.
SP500 Index Trend Identification and Trade Signal System
Cycle and Price Prediction System
Concluding Thoughts
Once these 100% measured moves complete, price usually attempts to stall or wash out a bit before attempting to establish a new price trend. At this point, given the examples we’ve illustrated, we believe the US market will enter a period of rotation and moderate volatility as these 100% measured moves have completed the upside price advance for now. Some level of price rotation after these 100% measured moves have completed will potentially allow for another attempt at a future 100% price advance after setting up a new price leg.
These techniques don’t always work, we recently got stopped out on a TVIX (vix/volatility trade for a loss) but we just close out our thirst natural gas trade for a quick 7% profit. The previous UGAZ trade netted 20%, and the one before that was 7.95%.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, but stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short term swing trading and long term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2 year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible with our BLACK FRIDAY offer, PLUS get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders
Tuesday, August 6, 2019
Natural Gas and Crude Oil Diverging Setups for Technical Traders
Over the past few weeks and months, we’ve been alerting our followers to the incredible setups in Natural Gas and Crude Oil. If you’ve been following our research, you already know on May 21st we called for Oil to break down from $62 level with a target of $55 then $49 price levels.
We’ve been alerting that Natural Gas was setting up an incredible seasonal trade with a move that was likely to push lower into the $2.00 to $2.20 level – suggesting any move into this range would be a solid buying opportunity for the seasonal upside move. Well, here we are about 35 days later and look at what happened.
The US/China trade issues and global economic turmoil is taking a toll on Crude Oil. Price rotated downward very sharply last week with an incredible -8% downside move in one day. Currently, price is resting just above the Moving Average and should soon breakdown below this level towards the $49 price level. At that point, price should stall, briefly, before attempting to find support below $50.
Our Fibonacci price modeling system suggests true support is found near $45 and $40. Be prepared for a potential downside move of -20% to -25% from current levels.
Natural Gas has done exactly what we expected. On this Weekly chart, you can see our shaded BLUE support range area and our GREEN and RED arrows from months ago highlighting what we expected to happen in price. Yes, price is lower than we currently expected, but it has aligned with our expected price rotation almost perfectly.
At this point, the sub $2.20 level is a perfect opportunity for skilled technical traders to prepare for the seasonal trend that will push Natural Gas back above the $2.65 to $3.15 level. Allow us to go through our expectations with you so you understand how to plan for and trade this move.
August is typically moderately bearish for NG. So expect to try to pick your entry for this trade in August. The ratio of bearish price activity in August is 1.2x the bullish price activity.
September is STRONGLY BULLISH – with an upside ratio of 10x compared to historical downside price activity. September is where we should see a big upside price move.
October is still STRONGLY BULLISH – with an upside ratio of 3x compared to historical downside price activity.
November is moderately bullish with a 1.3x upside ratio compared to downside price activity.
This means two things. First, Crude Oil should continue to breakdown and target the $49 price level over the next few days and weeks while Natural Gas sets up an incredible upside price setup below $2.25 for skilled technical traders. Oil is moving lower because of lower demand related to the global economic slowdown and larger supply issues. Natural Gas is setting up a seasonal pattern that could become a fantastic trading opportunity for traders that time their entries and understand the setup. In late August or early September price should begin to rally well above $2.50 with an ultimate upside target of well above $3.00.
In short, if you want to know what the market is going to nearly every day and get my trade alerts complete with entry, targets and stop prices join my Wealth Building Newsletter here at The Technical Traders.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders
We’ve been alerting that Natural Gas was setting up an incredible seasonal trade with a move that was likely to push lower into the $2.00 to $2.20 level – suggesting any move into this range would be a solid buying opportunity for the seasonal upside move. Well, here we are about 35 days later and look at what happened.
Crude Oil Weekly Chart
The US/China trade issues and global economic turmoil is taking a toll on Crude Oil. Price rotated downward very sharply last week with an incredible -8% downside move in one day. Currently, price is resting just above the Moving Average and should soon breakdown below this level towards the $49 price level. At that point, price should stall, briefly, before attempting to find support below $50.
Our Fibonacci price modeling system suggests true support is found near $45 and $40. Be prepared for a potential downside move of -20% to -25% from current levels.
Natural Gas Weekly Chart
Natural Gas has done exactly what we expected. On this Weekly chart, you can see our shaded BLUE support range area and our GREEN and RED arrows from months ago highlighting what we expected to happen in price. Yes, price is lower than we currently expected, but it has aligned with our expected price rotation almost perfectly.
At this point, the sub $2.20 level is a perfect opportunity for skilled technical traders to prepare for the seasonal trend that will push Natural Gas back above the $2.65 to $3.15 level. Allow us to go through our expectations with you so you understand how to plan for and trade this move.
August is typically moderately bearish for NG. So expect to try to pick your entry for this trade in August. The ratio of bearish price activity in August is 1.2x the bullish price activity.
September is STRONGLY BULLISH – with an upside ratio of 10x compared to historical downside price activity. September is where we should see a big upside price move.
October is still STRONGLY BULLISH – with an upside ratio of 3x compared to historical downside price activity.
November is moderately bullish with a 1.3x upside ratio compared to downside price activity.
If you want to get access to my trading indicators and market prediction tools
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
This means two things. First, Crude Oil should continue to breakdown and target the $49 price level over the next few days and weeks while Natural Gas sets up an incredible upside price setup below $2.25 for skilled technical traders. Oil is moving lower because of lower demand related to the global economic slowdown and larger supply issues. Natural Gas is setting up a seasonal pattern that could become a fantastic trading opportunity for traders that time their entries and understand the setup. In late August or early September price should begin to rally well above $2.50 with an ultimate upside target of well above $3.00.
In short, if you want to know what the market is going to nearly every day and get my trade alerts complete with entry, targets and stop prices join my Wealth Building Newsletter here at The Technical Traders.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders
Thursday, March 14, 2019
Countdown to the Precious Metals Breakout Rally - Here is Our Targeted Entry Levels
If you have been following our research over the past few months, you already know that we’ve called just about every major move in Gold over the past 14+ months. Recently, we called for Gold to rally to $1300 area, establish a minor peak, stall and retrace back to setup a momentum base pattern. We predicted this move to take place back in January 2019 – nearly 30+ days before it happened.
Now, we are publishing this research post to alert you that we are about 15~30 days away from the momentum base setup in Gold which will likely mirror in Silver. Thus, we have about 20+ days to look for and target entry opportunities in both Gold and Silver before this momentum bottom/base sets up.
This Monthly Gold chart, below, shows you the historic peaks that make up a current resistance level near 1370. This level is critical in understanding how the momentum base and following breakout will occur. This resistance level must be broken before the upside rally can continue above $1400, then $1500. Ultimately, the momentum base we are expecting for form before April 21st is the “last base” to setup before a much bigger upside price move takes place. In other words, pay attention over the next 30 days before this move happens.
This next Monthly Silver chart is the real gem of the precious metals world. The upside potential for Silver is actually much bigger than Gold currently. Any breakout move will likely see Silver push well above $30 per ounce and we just need to watch the $18.90 level for signs the breakout is beginning. Silver will follow a similar basing patter as Gold. We expect only about 30 days of buying opportunity left before this basing pattern is completed. Again, watch the April 21st date as the key date for the breakout move to begin.
Palladium has reached our initial Fibonacci upside price targets. We expect price to consolidated and potentially rotate near the $1500 price level. Ideally, price could fall below the $1300 price level and target the $1100 area before finding any real support. As long as industrial demand continues for Palladium, we expect to see continued upside price activity over the long run. Right now, we are expecting a price contraction as global industrial demand may falter a bit.
Please consider the research we are presenting to you today. Our predictive modeling systems have been calling the metals markets quite accurately over the past 14+ months. If our prediction of a momentum base on or near April 21st is correct, then we should begin to see an incredible upside price swing in Gold and Silver shortly after this date. You won’t want to miss this one – trust us. There will be time to catch this move when it starts – it could be an extended upside move.
Pay attention and put April 21st on your calendar now.
If you like our research and our level of insight into the markets, then take a minute to visit our site to learn how we help our clients find and execute for success. We’ve been calling these market moves almost perfectly over the past 18+ months. Learn how our research team can help you stay ahead of these swings in price and find new opportunities for skilled traders. Take a minute to see how we can help you find and execute better trades by visiting The Technical Traders today.
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
Now, we are publishing this research post to alert you that we are about 15~30 days away from the momentum base setup in Gold which will likely mirror in Silver. Thus, we have about 20+ days to look for and target entry opportunities in both Gold and Silver before this momentum bottom/base sets up.
This Monthly Gold chart, below, shows you the historic peaks that make up a current resistance level near 1370. This level is critical in understanding how the momentum base and following breakout will occur. This resistance level must be broken before the upside rally can continue above $1400, then $1500. Ultimately, the momentum base we are expecting for form before April 21st is the “last base” to setup before a much bigger upside price move takes place. In other words, pay attention over the next 30 days before this move happens.
This next Monthly Silver chart is the real gem of the precious metals world. The upside potential for Silver is actually much bigger than Gold currently. Any breakout move will likely see Silver push well above $30 per ounce and we just need to watch the $18.90 level for signs the breakout is beginning. Silver will follow a similar basing patter as Gold. We expect only about 30 days of buying opportunity left before this basing pattern is completed. Again, watch the April 21st date as the key date for the breakout move to begin.
Palladium has reached our initial Fibonacci upside price targets. We expect price to consolidated and potentially rotate near the $1500 price level. Ideally, price could fall below the $1300 price level and target the $1100 area before finding any real support. As long as industrial demand continues for Palladium, we expect to see continued upside price activity over the long run. Right now, we are expecting a price contraction as global industrial demand may falter a bit.
Please consider the research we are presenting to you today. Our predictive modeling systems have been calling the metals markets quite accurately over the past 14+ months. If our prediction of a momentum base on or near April 21st is correct, then we should begin to see an incredible upside price swing in Gold and Silver shortly after this date. You won’t want to miss this one – trust us. There will be time to catch this move when it starts – it could be an extended upside move.
Pay attention and put April 21st on your calendar now.
If you like our research and our level of insight into the markets, then take a minute to visit our site to learn how we help our clients find and execute for success. We’ve been calling these market moves almost perfectly over the past 18+ months. Learn how our research team can help you stay ahead of these swings in price and find new opportunities for skilled traders. Take a minute to see how we can help you find and execute better trades by visiting The Technical Traders today.
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
Friday, January 18, 2019
Crude Oil Will Find Strong Resistance Between $52 - $55
Our Adaptive Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting Crude Oil may have already reached very strong resistance levels just above $50 ppb. It is our opinion that a failed rally above $55 ppb will result in another downward price move where prices could retest the $42 low – or lower.
You can see from this Daily Crude oil chart that price has formed a consolidated price channel between $50 and $53 ppb. This price channel aligns with a November 2018 price consolidation zone. It is our belief that any advance above $55-56 ppb, will result in a new upward price move to $64-65 ppb.
This Weekly crude oil chart highlights the Fibonacci projected price zones that represent the incredibly strong resistance level currently setup in Crude. The Weekly chart shows a zone between $50-56 as a critical resistance zone. One key element of Fibonacci price theory is that price must always attempt to seek out new highs or new lows as it rotates. Thus, if this current upside move fails to establish new highs above this resistance zone, then it must move lower to attempt to establish new lows. This means the $40 price target is a very viable immediate objective.
Global demand for oil, as well as global economic data, could be key to understand the future demand and price for oil. At this point, a new upper fractal top formation will generate new Fibonacci price targets to the downside. If our opinion proves to be correct, we will learn of these new price targets within a few weeks.
Want to learn how we called the move in Oil from $76 to $43?
Visit The Technical Traders Free Research Right Here to read all of our recent research posts.
We help traders find and execute better trade by using our proprietary tools to keep them informed and to alert them to new trade opportunities. Visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you make 2019 a fantastic year.
Chris Vermeulen
You can see from this Daily Crude oil chart that price has formed a consolidated price channel between $50 and $53 ppb. This price channel aligns with a November 2018 price consolidation zone. It is our belief that any advance above $55-56 ppb, will result in a new upward price move to $64-65 ppb.
This Weekly crude oil chart highlights the Fibonacci projected price zones that represent the incredibly strong resistance level currently setup in Crude. The Weekly chart shows a zone between $50-56 as a critical resistance zone. One key element of Fibonacci price theory is that price must always attempt to seek out new highs or new lows as it rotates. Thus, if this current upside move fails to establish new highs above this resistance zone, then it must move lower to attempt to establish new lows. This means the $40 price target is a very viable immediate objective.
Global demand for oil, as well as global economic data, could be key to understand the future demand and price for oil. At this point, a new upper fractal top formation will generate new Fibonacci price targets to the downside. If our opinion proves to be correct, we will learn of these new price targets within a few weeks.
Want to learn how we called the move in Oil from $76 to $43?
Visit The Technical Traders Free Research Right Here to read all of our recent research posts.
We help traders find and execute better trade by using our proprietary tools to keep them informed and to alert them to new trade opportunities. Visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you make 2019 a fantastic year.
Chris Vermeulen
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Let’s Look at the Three Issues That Might Drive Crude Oil Lower
Crude Oil has been a major play for some traders over the past few months. With price, rotation ranges near $5~$7 and upside pressure driving a price assent from below $45 to nearly $75 peaks. This upside price move has been tremendous.
Over the past few weeks, many things have changed in the fundamentals of the Oil market. Supply continues to outpace demand, trade tariffs and slowing global economies are now starting to become real concerns, foreign suppliers have continued to increase production, US Dollar continues to strengthen and social/political unrest is starting to become more evident in many foreign nations.
In fact, we felt so strongly that big downside move in crude oil was about to happen we posted a warning to oil traders two days before the drop started.
When we consider what could happen with oil in the future with regards to over-supply and the potential for constricting global markets, we have to understand that support will likely be identified at levels that are much lower than current price – possibly below $60. Yet, at the same time, we must understand that disruptions in supply and/or regional chaos, such as war or political turmoil, in specific regions could cause the price of oil to skyrocket as these disruptions continue.
* A stronger US Dollar is making it more expensive for foreign nations to purchase Oil on the open market as well as moving capital away from foreign local investments and migrating capital into the US Equities markets
* Supply issues (the increased capacity for greater supply) is resulting in a glut of oil available on the open market when we have dozens of supply ships still waiting to offload throughout the world. In other words, we have an over-supply of oil at the moment.
* A lack of any urgency or crisis event to support Oil above $65 at the moment. Given the slow, but consistent, transition towards cleaner more energy efficient vehicles and energy as well as the lack of any real conflict or crisis event to disrupt supply, it appears there is no real support for Oil above $65 – at least so far.
This Daily Crude Light chart shows a simple price channel that correlates recent price lows into a channel and shows a Fibonacci Retracement range for recent price rotations. We can see that the price of Crude is holding just above the 50% retracement level right now and any breach below $70 would be a very strong downside price breakout. Should price drop below $68, we could see a selloff to below $64 as price may attempt to establish a new “price low” to the downside.
This Monthly Crude chart below shows us where we believe support and resistance price zones are located. You can see from the highlighted areas that resistance is located between $70~86 and support is located between $44~56 on this longer-term monthly chart. You can also see that the Fibonacci retracement levels for the current upside move are currently nearing 55~57% (above the 50% level and nearing the 61.8% level). The combination factor that Crude has recently rotated lower, near the upper price channel, within the resistance zone, above 50% and nearing 61.8% Fibonacci level, strongly suggests that we could see a stronger downside price swing in the near future. Until $60 is breached, consider this move simple rotation. Once $60 is breached to the downside, then consider this a deeper downside price move.
With so many factors in play throughout the world, one has to be aware that Crude Oil is a commodity that correlates to expected economic activities, global crisis events, and supply/demand factors. Right now, an almost perfect storm is setting up for Oil to continue to fall to new lows which will likely push Crude below $60 ppb (eventually) and may push it down to near $55 ppb (our upper support zone). We caution traders/investors through – any crisis news item, war or other disruption in supply could dramatically alter the factor that makes up this price prediction. Right now, without any of these issues, we see Oil continuing to fall towards the $60 price level.
Also, visit The Technical Traders Free Market Research to read all of our most recent free research posts. We believe you’ll quickly see the value in what we provide our members and our visitors by reading and understanding how we have continued to stay ahead of these market moves for months.
53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.
Get our advanced research and market reporting, Daily market videos, detailed trading signals and join the hundreds of other traders that follow our research every day and profit.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd.
Over the past few weeks, many things have changed in the fundamentals of the Oil market. Supply continues to outpace demand, trade tariffs and slowing global economies are now starting to become real concerns, foreign suppliers have continued to increase production, US Dollar continues to strengthen and social/political unrest is starting to become more evident in many foreign nations.
In fact, we felt so strongly that big downside move in crude oil was about to happen we posted a warning to oil traders two days before the drop started.
When we consider what could happen with oil in the future with regards to over-supply and the potential for constricting global markets, we have to understand that support will likely be identified at levels that are much lower than current price – possibly below $60. Yet, at the same time, we must understand that disruptions in supply and/or regional chaos, such as war or political turmoil, in specific regions could cause the price of oil to skyrocket as these disruptions continue.
RIGHT NOW, THREE KEY ISSUES ARE DRIVING OIL LOWER
* A stronger US Dollar is making it more expensive for foreign nations to purchase Oil on the open market as well as moving capital away from foreign local investments and migrating capital into the US Equities markets
* Supply issues (the increased capacity for greater supply) is resulting in a glut of oil available on the open market when we have dozens of supply ships still waiting to offload throughout the world. In other words, we have an over-supply of oil at the moment.
* A lack of any urgency or crisis event to support Oil above $65 at the moment. Given the slow, but consistent, transition towards cleaner more energy efficient vehicles and energy as well as the lack of any real conflict or crisis event to disrupt supply, it appears there is no real support for Oil above $65 – at least so far.
DAILY CRUDE LIGHT CHART
This Daily Crude Light chart shows a simple price channel that correlates recent price lows into a channel and shows a Fibonacci Retracement range for recent price rotations. We can see that the price of Crude is holding just above the 50% retracement level right now and any breach below $70 would be a very strong downside price breakout. Should price drop below $68, we could see a selloff to below $64 as price may attempt to establish a new “price low” to the downside.
MONTHLY CRUDE CHART
This Monthly Crude chart below shows us where we believe support and resistance price zones are located. You can see from the highlighted areas that resistance is located between $70~86 and support is located between $44~56 on this longer-term monthly chart. You can also see that the Fibonacci retracement levels for the current upside move are currently nearing 55~57% (above the 50% level and nearing the 61.8% level). The combination factor that Crude has recently rotated lower, near the upper price channel, within the resistance zone, above 50% and nearing 61.8% Fibonacci level, strongly suggests that we could see a stronger downside price swing in the near future. Until $60 is breached, consider this move simple rotation. Once $60 is breached to the downside, then consider this a deeper downside price move.
With so many factors in play throughout the world, one has to be aware that Crude Oil is a commodity that correlates to expected economic activities, global crisis events, and supply/demand factors. Right now, an almost perfect storm is setting up for Oil to continue to fall to new lows which will likely push Crude below $60 ppb (eventually) and may push it down to near $55 ppb (our upper support zone). We caution traders/investors through – any crisis news item, war or other disruption in supply could dramatically alter the factor that makes up this price prediction. Right now, without any of these issues, we see Oil continuing to fall towards the $60 price level.
Also, visit The Technical Traders Free Market Research to read all of our most recent free research posts. We believe you’ll quickly see the value in what we provide our members and our visitors by reading and understanding how we have continued to stay ahead of these market moves for months.
53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.
Get our advanced research and market reporting, Daily market videos, detailed trading signals and join the hundreds of other traders that follow our research every day and profit.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd.
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
Gold – A Unique Repeat of the 2007 and How to Profit
Since Spring is in the air here are some colorful charts and show you where we feel the price of gold and stocks are within the current market cycles. Below are monthly charts of the SP500 index and the price of gold. The first chart shows a pattern that gold formed just before stocks hit all time new highs and the bear market started. The chart is a little noisy, lots of analysis, but we color coded each area to break it into clear bits size analysis. The chart shows you what happened and what is likely to happen again.
This is the current monthly chart, and if you compare the price action with the above chart, you can’t help but think things are set up in a similar formation as 2007 – 2008.
It means, the stock market is nearing a significant top and all everyone’s long term buy and hold investments should be reviewed and prepared for a rebalancing later this year. Precious metals should do well this year, stocks should top out and for you to preserve their hard earned money cash is always king for those who don’t actively trade. But if you do trade or you are an active investor huge amounts of money can be made during times of increased volatility, precious metals, and falling stock market prices.
What an AWESOME DAY! All our positions rocketed higher with our most recent entry in SIL (silver miners) leading the way. We closed our TNA position to lock in 17.7% on the second portion of that trade. Yes, we do feel the markets will run higher, but we also like to lock in the quick, easy money trades like TNA especially when the overall market is looking and feeling a little top heavy for a day or three. The chart below of the SP500 index paints a color picture of what I feel will unfold in the very near term.
Our analysis of the markets was DEAD ON. We called the 2678 level on the ES as a key resistance level to watch before any breakout to the upside would potentially happen. We also called this market bottom nearly three weeks ago on March 28, 2018 and we locked in 17.7% today with our subscribers. We have been nailing these market reversals with incredible accuracy all year and we are just getting started with our Advanced Dynamic Learning systems [preview that system here] we have developed.
The bottom line is that smart traders and investors look into the future and position their money where they feel it will increase in value the most. We say this all the time, which is money is continually looking for the best ROI and flows from one asset class to another as the market evolves. With potentially another major financial crisis forming, war, and a bear market in stocks we do not doubt that we are about to experience a huge rebalancing of money over the next few years, and I feel precious metals may be the next little hot pocket for trades.
So if you want our pre-market video analysis showing you where the markets, oil, and gold are headed every day and want out ETF trade alerts be sure to join the Wealth Building Newsletter Here!
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders
This is the current monthly chart, and if you compare the price action with the above chart, you can’t help but think things are set up in a similar formation as 2007 – 2008.
It means, the stock market is nearing a significant top and all everyone’s long term buy and hold investments should be reviewed and prepared for a rebalancing later this year. Precious metals should do well this year, stocks should top out and for you to preserve their hard earned money cash is always king for those who don’t actively trade. But if you do trade or you are an active investor huge amounts of money can be made during times of increased volatility, precious metals, and falling stock market prices.
What an AWESOME DAY! All our positions rocketed higher with our most recent entry in SIL (silver miners) leading the way. We closed our TNA position to lock in 17.7% on the second portion of that trade. Yes, we do feel the markets will run higher, but we also like to lock in the quick, easy money trades like TNA especially when the overall market is looking and feeling a little top heavy for a day or three. The chart below of the SP500 index paints a color picture of what I feel will unfold in the very near term.
Our analysis of the markets was DEAD ON. We called the 2678 level on the ES as a key resistance level to watch before any breakout to the upside would potentially happen. We also called this market bottom nearly three weeks ago on March 28, 2018 and we locked in 17.7% today with our subscribers. We have been nailing these market reversals with incredible accuracy all year and we are just getting started with our Advanced Dynamic Learning systems [preview that system here] we have developed.
The bottom line is that smart traders and investors look into the future and position their money where they feel it will increase in value the most. We say this all the time, which is money is continually looking for the best ROI and flows from one asset class to another as the market evolves. With potentially another major financial crisis forming, war, and a bear market in stocks we do not doubt that we are about to experience a huge rebalancing of money over the next few years, and I feel precious metals may be the next little hot pocket for trades.
So if you want our pre-market video analysis showing you where the markets, oil, and gold are headed every day and want out ETF trade alerts be sure to join the Wealth Building Newsletter Here!
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders
Sunday, March 25, 2018
This Week's Stock Market Analysis & Warning in Layman's Terms
As you likely know, the stock market, trading, and even long term investing are not easy. That’s why in this post we want to make the complex simple for you. We will do this in a way that will give you that “Eureka!” moment regarding knowing what the stock market is doing now, and where it is headed over the next 12-36 months.
Last August we spotted trends in the underlying financial system that are very early warning signs that the bull market in stocks will be coming to an end, along with this growing economy. There is a ton of data taken into account for this information, but we have broken it down into simple bite size points that simply make logical sense, from a technical analysts perspective.
Back in April 2017, we posted an article showing the first set of data that most traders and investors do not see or follow, mortgage delinquency rates. Delinquency rates in Single Family Residential Mortgages and other Consumer Loans began to climb through the second half of 2016 and continue to rise today. We shared with readers a way to take advantage of this using the Real Estate Bear Fund (DRV). This fund is now up over 20% and climbing as it rises when real estate falls. The rise and timing of this delinquency rate increase coincide almost identically with the Fed when they raise rates. And the problem is not just mortgages defaulting, the same is happening with commercial loans, and credit card debt.
Just look at what has the fed being doing like a mad-man of late? Ya, jacking up rates like they are going out of style!
The graph below shows a red line which is the fed rate, and as that rises so do loan delinquency rates (blue line). You will also see the grey shaded areas on the graph, and these are bear markets (falling stock prices). It’s obvious that we are headed towards financial issues once again with debt and the stock market.
On March 18th 2018 we post an update showing how real estate foreclosures are starting to rise dramatically! Subscribers to our Wealth Building Trading Newsletter took advantage of this as we got long SRS inverse real estate fund which jumped over 5% in the first two days of owning it.
Because we are traders and investors our focus is on making money, so we are only looking at the blue wave/cycle on the diagram below. The blue cycle is the stock market, and the numbers posted along that cycle indicate which stocks/assets should be the most in favor, rising.
As you can see the numbers 9 and 11 at the top are both commodity based (precious metals and energy). And knowing that commodities typically perform well just before a bear market in stocks unfolds, we are on the cusp of a new trade that could last a few months and post significant gains.
Take a look at the commodity index chart below. Without getting to deep in to stage analysis I will just say commodities have formed a very strong “Stage 1” and are primed and ready for a multi-month rally.
This market appears to be in a EUPHORIC “wonderland” moment driven by the fact that the global central banks have created a waterfall event of cheap money that is driving all of this asset valuation recovery. And, as capital is continually searching for the best environment for ROI, it is moving into the best areas of the global economy for survival purposes which we feel should soon be commodity-related assets, then eventually cash once the bear market takes hold.
In short, as long as the capital continues to flow into the securities (stocks) and commodities in search for the best return on investment, we will continue to see markets hold up. But, stay cautious because when the markets turn and money is no longer looking for the next top performing sector or commodity, but rather just wants to exit investments as a whole and convert to cash (cash is king), that is when the bear market starts, and it could be very quick and violent.
Additionally, as we’ve shown with these charts and graphs today, we are entering a frothy period in the markets, and we would urge all investors to be critically aware of the risks involved in being blind to these facets of the current stock market and housing bubbles.
With 53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
Last August we spotted trends in the underlying financial system that are very early warning signs that the bull market in stocks will be coming to an end, along with this growing economy. There is a ton of data taken into account for this information, but we have broken it down into simple bite size points that simply make logical sense, from a technical analysts perspective.
First Warning
Back in April 2017, we posted an article showing the first set of data that most traders and investors do not see or follow, mortgage delinquency rates. Delinquency rates in Single Family Residential Mortgages and other Consumer Loans began to climb through the second half of 2016 and continue to rise today. We shared with readers a way to take advantage of this using the Real Estate Bear Fund (DRV). This fund is now up over 20% and climbing as it rises when real estate falls. The rise and timing of this delinquency rate increase coincide almost identically with the Fed when they raise rates. And the problem is not just mortgages defaulting, the same is happening with commercial loans, and credit card debt.
Just look at what has the fed being doing like a mad-man of late? Ya, jacking up rates like they are going out of style!
The graph below shows a red line which is the fed rate, and as that rises so do loan delinquency rates (blue line). You will also see the grey shaded areas on the graph, and these are bear markets (falling stock prices). It’s obvious that we are headed towards financial issues once again with debt and the stock market.
Mortgage Rates and Delinquency Rates on the Rise
On March 18th 2018 we post an update showing how real estate foreclosures are starting to rise dramatically! Subscribers to our Wealth Building Trading Newsletter took advantage of this as we got long SRS inverse real estate fund which jumped over 5% in the first two days of owning it.
Second Warning – Asset and Business Cycles
Because we are traders and investors our focus is on making money, so we are only looking at the blue wave/cycle on the diagram below. The blue cycle is the stock market, and the numbers posted along that cycle indicate which stocks/assets should be the most in favor, rising.
As you can see the numbers 9 and 11 at the top are both commodity based (precious metals and energy). And knowing that commodities typically perform well just before a bear market in stocks unfolds, we are on the cusp of a new trade that could last a few months and post significant gains.
COMMODITY PRICE INDEX
Take a look at the commodity index chart below. Without getting to deep in to stage analysis I will just say commodities have formed a very strong “Stage 1” and are primed and ready for a multi-month rally.
Third Warning – Psychology of the Market
This market appears to be in a EUPHORIC “wonderland” moment driven by the fact that the global central banks have created a waterfall event of cheap money that is driving all of this asset valuation recovery. And, as capital is continually searching for the best environment for ROI, it is moving into the best areas of the global economy for survival purposes which we feel should soon be commodity-related assets, then eventually cash once the bear market takes hold.
Stock Market Conclusion
In short, as long as the capital continues to flow into the securities (stocks) and commodities in search for the best return on investment, we will continue to see markets hold up. But, stay cautious because when the markets turn and money is no longer looking for the next top performing sector or commodity, but rather just wants to exit investments as a whole and convert to cash (cash is king), that is when the bear market starts, and it could be very quick and violent.
Additionally, as we’ve shown with these charts and graphs today, we are entering a frothy period in the markets, and we would urge all investors to be critically aware of the risks involved in being blind to these facets of the current stock market and housing bubbles.
With 53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
Three Trades for This Wild Market
It has been an emotional ride for most traders since stocks started to sell off last Friday in a big way. This crash we just experienced is VERY much like the Aug 2015 crash. Price and volatility both have parabolic price movements that could either make you a lot of money or lose a bundle depending on where your money was positioned.
This post is to quickly share three recent trades we have taken one of them (REALLY BAD) and what to expect in the markets moving forward.
On Monday while the markets were under serious pressure cascading lower our only open position at the time was DUST. This is an inverse gold miners fund that allows us to profit when gold stocks fall in value. We had been expecting gold stocks to fall for a couple weeks and got into the position on Jan 26th. Gold stocks fell quickly and we took partial profits at 11% within 3 days.
We continued to hold the balance of DUST in anticipation of a second leg down in gold stocks which our technical analysis was showing should happen within a couple days which it did. On Monday, Feb 5th while stocks were under more selling pressure money rotated into the gold stocks as a safe haven and that is we decided to close the position with a 20% profit it 7 days. This was a good trade, but the next one isn’t.
Also, on February 5th we were anticipating the panic selling and looking for a washout low to be put in place Monday/Tuesday of this week. Thus far everything has played out exactly as we expected in terms of price action. What I love about technical analysis is that if done correctly you can predict, or at least have a very good idea of what price should do next, and because we knew panic selling was coming we were not totally caught off guard. But I will admit, I expected half the price movement and volatility that actually took place this time around.
* I always short UVXY when the vix is high, and fade the fear. But no shares were available to short Monday.
* The only other way to do this was to buy XIV and inverse VIX fund which works in most cases but not nearly as good as short selling UVXY.
* Volatility jumped 100% Monday, XIV fund imploded and lost 98% of its value catching hedge funds, professional traders, and us off guard.
* XIV is still trading, it will take many months to regain and reduce some of its draw down.
During extreme situations like XIV position dropping 98% there are two ways to deal with it. Take the loss and move on, or use the extreme market conditions to get back into a trade and catch the next big move to help minimize XIV draw down. So we took a short sell trade on UVXY Tuesday at the open. The VIX was set to gap sharply higher into a level it has only ever reached a few times in before. By shorting the VIX it means we profit when the VIX falls in value which it did.
We opened the trade right at the opening bell and the VIX when into free fall hitting our first profit target within 18 minutes for a 36% profit. We still hold half the position expecting a larger gain over the next few days. Currently, this short UVXY position is up over 50% and we are looking for roughly 70% before we close it out.
Take a listen to my audio Squawk Box broadcast today to subscribers to get a feel for the XIV, volatility, and the stock market.....Visit Here
CONCLUSION
In short, February has been exciting, to say the least. I feel this price action is a major warning and signal that the bull market is coming to an end. What I feel is going to unfold is similar price action we say from Aug 2015 crash – Feb 2016. Big price rotation, and elevated volatility. And this time, stocks may not find support at the lows created this week and trigger the first leg down in a new bear market.
It’s likely going to take most of 2018 to form and unfold, but we aware…
Join us at Technical Traders Ltd. Wealth Building Newsletter and take advantage of the next major trend changes and profit.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Team
This post is to quickly share three recent trades we have taken one of them (REALLY BAD) and what to expect in the markets moving forward.
On Monday while the markets were under serious pressure cascading lower our only open position at the time was DUST. This is an inverse gold miners fund that allows us to profit when gold stocks fall in value. We had been expecting gold stocks to fall for a couple weeks and got into the position on Jan 26th. Gold stocks fell quickly and we took partial profits at 11% within 3 days.
We continued to hold the balance of DUST in anticipation of a second leg down in gold stocks which our technical analysis was showing should happen within a couple days which it did. On Monday, Feb 5th while stocks were under more selling pressure money rotated into the gold stocks as a safe haven and that is we decided to close the position with a 20% profit it 7 days. This was a good trade, but the next one isn’t.
Also, on February 5th we were anticipating the panic selling and looking for a washout low to be put in place Monday/Tuesday of this week. Thus far everything has played out exactly as we expected in terms of price action. What I love about technical analysis is that if done correctly you can predict, or at least have a very good idea of what price should do next, and because we knew panic selling was coming we were not totally caught off guard. But I will admit, I expected half the price movement and volatility that actually took place this time around.
Terribly Unfortunate Trade
* I always short UVXY when the vix is high, and fade the fear. But no shares were available to short Monday.
* The only other way to do this was to buy XIV and inverse VIX fund which works in most cases but not nearly as good as short selling UVXY.
* Volatility jumped 100% Monday, XIV fund imploded and lost 98% of its value catching hedge funds, professional traders, and us off guard.
* XIV is still trading, it will take many months to regain and reduce some of its draw down.
Tuesday's Clawback Trade
During extreme situations like XIV position dropping 98% there are two ways to deal with it. Take the loss and move on, or use the extreme market conditions to get back into a trade and catch the next big move to help minimize XIV draw down. So we took a short sell trade on UVXY Tuesday at the open. The VIX was set to gap sharply higher into a level it has only ever reached a few times in before. By shorting the VIX it means we profit when the VIX falls in value which it did.
We opened the trade right at the opening bell and the VIX when into free fall hitting our first profit target within 18 minutes for a 36% profit. We still hold half the position expecting a larger gain over the next few days. Currently, this short UVXY position is up over 50% and we are looking for roughly 70% before we close it out.
Take a listen to my audio Squawk Box broadcast today to subscribers to get a feel for the XIV, volatility, and the stock market.....Visit Here
CONCLUSION
In short, February has been exciting, to say the least. I feel this price action is a major warning and signal that the bull market is coming to an end. What I feel is going to unfold is similar price action we say from Aug 2015 crash – Feb 2016. Big price rotation, and elevated volatility. And this time, stocks may not find support at the lows created this week and trigger the first leg down in a new bear market.
It’s likely going to take most of 2018 to form and unfold, but we aware…
Join us at Technical Traders Ltd. Wealth Building Newsletter and take advantage of the next major trend changes and profit.
Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Team
Friday, February 2, 2018
Gold And Gold Miners Preparing for Big Move
Just a few days ago we alerted our members and followers to a massive setup in the Palladium market that had not been seen in years. This chart formation provides an incredible opportunity for a trader to take advantage of and profit from the expected price decline. We alerted our members and followers on January 24th of this move.
As of today, Palladium has rotated downward by over 9% from the recent highs and should continue to move lower as this multi-month rotation extends. Even though this initial move lower (-9%) reaches our initial predicted target levels, we still believe support won’t be found till prices reach near the $1000 price level. If that support fails to hold, the price of Palladium could fall to the $900. This total move could be over -20% by the time this downward swing ends.
As an additional bonus, the other metals and Miner ETFs are starting a move in correlation with this massive rotation in Palladium. The aggressive move in Palladium may become a catalyst for the other metals and miners to sell off further.
We warned weeks ago about this cycle top in gold and how it should rotate lower and move to near $1300 before finding support. This move has just started really and would equate to a -3.8~4.2% downward price correction.
The ability to see these moves and act on them provides our members with the ability to take a single trading signal and deploy multiple successful trades from it. We got our member’s long DUST near the very bottom of the market in anticipation of this move in the metals markets. Knowing that this move was set up and that it could be somewhat aggressive, we simply waited for the proper setup and trigger to alert our members.
The overall potential from our DUST trade remains substantial. Currently, we have already locked in +11% for our members and we believe the final move could be much larger.
The reason we are alerting you, today, of the progress of our calls, is that the market conditions are changing, and these types of trade setups are going to happen every month and a lot of money can be made by taking advantage of them each month. Join our Wealth Building Newsletter here at The Technical Traders and let us boost your trading returns with our daily analysis video, market updates, and trade alerts.
We just closed out another winning trade and members locked in a quick 9.1% profit with falling price of natural gas.
Our articles, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors to explore the tools and techniques that discretionary and algorithmic traders need to profit in today’s competitive markets. Created with the serious trader and investor in mind – whether beginner or professional – our approach will put you on the path to win. Understanding market structure, trend identification, cycle analysis, volatility, volume, when and when to trade, position management, and how to put it all together so that you have a winning edge.
Chris Vermeulen
Founder Technical Traders Ltd.
As of today, Palladium has rotated downward by over 9% from the recent highs and should continue to move lower as this multi-month rotation extends. Even though this initial move lower (-9%) reaches our initial predicted target levels, we still believe support won’t be found till prices reach near the $1000 price level. If that support fails to hold, the price of Palladium could fall to the $900. This total move could be over -20% by the time this downward swing ends.
As an additional bonus, the other metals and Miner ETFs are starting a move in correlation with this massive rotation in Palladium. The aggressive move in Palladium may become a catalyst for the other metals and miners to sell off further.
We warned weeks ago about this cycle top in gold and how it should rotate lower and move to near $1300 before finding support. This move has just started really and would equate to a -3.8~4.2% downward price correction.
The ability to see these moves and act on them provides our members with the ability to take a single trading signal and deploy multiple successful trades from it. We got our member’s long DUST near the very bottom of the market in anticipation of this move in the metals markets. Knowing that this move was set up and that it could be somewhat aggressive, we simply waited for the proper setup and trigger to alert our members.
The overall potential from our DUST trade remains substantial. Currently, we have already locked in +11% for our members and we believe the final move could be much larger.
The reason we are alerting you, today, of the progress of our calls, is that the market conditions are changing, and these types of trade setups are going to happen every month and a lot of money can be made by taking advantage of them each month. Join our Wealth Building Newsletter here at The Technical Traders and let us boost your trading returns with our daily analysis video, market updates, and trade alerts.
We just closed out another winning trade and members locked in a quick 9.1% profit with falling price of natural gas.
Our articles, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors to explore the tools and techniques that discretionary and algorithmic traders need to profit in today’s competitive markets. Created with the serious trader and investor in mind – whether beginner or professional – our approach will put you on the path to win. Understanding market structure, trend identification, cycle analysis, volatility, volume, when and when to trade, position management, and how to put it all together so that you have a winning edge.
Chris Vermeulen
Founder Technical Traders Ltd.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
