Countdown to the Precious Metals Breakout Rally - Here is Our Targeted Entry Levels

If you have been following our research over the past few months, you already know that we’ve called just about every major move in Gold over the past 14+ months. Recently, we called for Gold to rally to $1300 area, establish a minor peak, stall and retrace back to setup a momentum base pattern. We predicted this move to take place back in January 2019 – nearly 30+ days before it happened.

Now, we are publishing this research post to alert you that we are about 15~30 days away from the momentum base setup in Gold which will likely mirror in Silver. Thus, we have about 20+ days to look for and target entry opportunities in both Gold and Silver before this momentum bottom/base sets up.

This Monthly Gold chart, below, shows you the historic peaks that make up a current resistance level near 1370. This level is critical in understanding how the momentum base and following breakout will occur. This resistance level must be broken before the upside rally can continue above $1400, then $1500. Ultimately, the momentum base we are expecting for form before April 21st is the “last base” to setup before a much bigger upside price move takes place. In other words, pay attention over the next 30 days before this move happens.

This next Monthly Silver chart is the real gem of the precious metals world. The upside potential for Silver is actually much bigger than Gold currently. Any breakout move will likely see Silver push well above $30 per ounce and we just need to watch the $18.90 level for signs the breakout is beginning. Silver will follow a similar basing patter as Gold. We expect only about 30 days of buying opportunity left before this basing pattern is completed. Again, watch the April 21st date as the key date for the breakout move to begin.

Palladium has reached our initial Fibonacci upside price targets. We expect price to consolidated and potentially rotate near the $1500 price level. Ideally, price could fall below the $1300 price level and target the $1100 area before finding any real support. As long as industrial demand continues for Palladium, we expect to see continued upside price activity over the long run. Right now, we are expecting a price contraction as global industrial demand may falter a bit.

Please consider the research we are presenting to you today. Our predictive modeling systems have been calling the metals markets quite accurately over the past 14+ months. If our prediction of a momentum base on or near April 21st is correct, then we should begin to see an incredible upside price swing in Gold and Silver shortly after this date. You won’t want to miss this one – trust us. There will be time to catch this move when it starts – it could be an extended upside move.

Pay attention and put April 21st on your calendar now.

If you like our research and our level of insight into the markets, then take a minute to visit our site to learn how we help our clients find and execute for success. We’ve been calling these market moves almost perfectly over the past 18+ months. Learn how our research team can help you stay ahead of these swings in price and find new opportunities for skilled traders. Take a minute to see how we can help you find and execute better trades by visiting The Technical Traders today.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Gold and Silver Prepare for a Momentum Rally - Here’s our Call on the Next Price Rotation

Today we warn of a potential downside price rotation in precious metals that may last 3 - 5+ weeks as metals set up for a massive breakout rally which we believe will start in late April or early May. Our custom indicators are suggesting that precious metals, and the general U.S. stock markets, may be setting up for a bit of a reprieve rotation after a very impressive recovery. Be patient as we believe this pullback in prices will provide an excellent buying opportunity for the eventual momentum rally setting up in about 30+ days.​

Let’s start by looking at our Custom Market Volatility indicators. The Weekly chart below highlights the recent recovery in the U.S. stock market since the December 24th, 2018 lows and also shows that the current recovery level is sitting right at a 61.8% Fibonacci level. It is our belief that a period of general price weakness will begin to unfold over the next 10 - 15+ days in the U.S. stock market. This rotation is very healthy for the next leg higher – the momentum rally we have been suggesting will take place in the near future.

We believe the downside rotation in the U.S. stock market will be the result of renewed calm from expectations that the global economy may begin a recovery process as the US/China trade issues and other geopolitical issues seem to become more resolved. We believe the recent upside move in the US stock markets were a flight to safety for many foreign investors fearing that US/China trade issues would result in very harsh outcomes near March 1st. If the trade issues appear to be close to a resolution, this flight to safety trade may wane a bit over the next 10 - 20+ days as emerging markets may see a dramatic upside bounce in valuations.

How does this relate to Gold and Silver? It is very likely that the upside pricing pressure in precious metals will stall a bit as the global equities markets take center stage. If our analysis is correct, the developed markets will contract while the emerging markets take focus. This falls right into line with our analysis that the US stock markets will pause/rotate over the next 10~20+ days in preparation for a larger upside price swing.

Our custom Gold/Silver Index is showing that precious metals are trading in a sideways Pennant/Flag formation near levels that have historically been resistance. We still believe the upside in the precious metals market over the long term is substantial, yet we believe the news of a US/China trade resolution and the resulting rally in the emerging markets will remove much of the upside pricing pressure in the precious metals markets for about 15+ days before momentum support is found.

Our researchers believe the timing of this move is right for a short term swing trade. Be prepared for rotation in nearly all the global markets and be prepared for emerging markets to see an upside price rally as a result of positive news from the U.S. and China over the next 2+ weeks.

Are you ready for these moves? Do you value the research we share with you and the insight we provide? Please take a minute to visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades. Support our work – become a member. We dedicate our efforts to providing you with more detailed and intuitive market research available anywhere else. Isn’t it time you invested in a team that can really help you make 2019 a great success?

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

Will Crude Oil Find Support Above $50 Dollars?

Recent global news regarding Venezuela, China, and global oil supply/production have resulted in the price of crude oil pausing over the past few weeks near $53 to $55 ppb. We believe the continued supply glut and uncertainty will result in oil prices falling, briefly, back below $50 ppb before any new price rally begins. Our researchers at The Technical Traders believe historical resistance near $54 - $55 is strong enough to drive prices lower before new momentum picks up for a renewed price rally.

Eventually, yes, oil will rally above $55 and attempt to target the $65+ price level. Yet we don’t believe that move is going to happen right now. We believe the global uncertainty, the slowing Chinese economy and the global supply glut will result in a fundamental price decrease before any momentum for an upside price move begins. Our analysis suggests a price move back below $50 ppb, likely targeting the $46 - $47 level, where basing may occur.

Uncertainty in Venezuela and other oil producing nations may result in a disruption in supply at some point in the future. We must be cautious of unknown situations that could result in dramatic price shifts. Yet, overall, with supply levels still high and slowing global economic expectations, it makes sense that oil would attempt to base and find support near recent lows – between $46 - $48.

Visit The Technical Traders here to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades in 2019. Learn how our proprietary predictive modeling systems have called these moves in the past and how our research team can assist you in finding great opportunities in the future.

Chris Vermeulen

How to Spot a Tradable Market Top

If you are a long term investor, swing trader, or day trader, then you could find one or all of the charts below interesting. What I am going to briefly cover and show you could make you think twice about how you are investing and trading your money. I will be the first to admit you should not, and cannot, always pick market tops or bottoms, but there are certain times when it’s worth betting on one.

Below I have shared three charts, each with a different time frame using daily, 30 minutes, and a 10-minute chart. Each chart also has a different technical analysis technique and strategy applied. Each shorter time frame chart as we work down the page zooms in closer to more imminent price action that should take place over the next few days.

DAILY CHART SIGNALS MARKET TOP – INVESTING/SWING TRADING

The daily chart below shows a clear overall trend which is to the downside. Trends are more likely to continue than they are to reverse, hence the saying “The Trend Is Your Friend.”

A key piece of data on this chart is the blue investing cycle line at the bottom. If this is trending down or below the 50 level, then money should be focused on profiting from falling prices via inverse ETF’s, short selling, or put options.

Equally important are the yellow and baby blue cycle lines at the bottom. When these enter the upper reversal zone, we should expect sellers to step into the market and for the price to fall.

30 MINUTE CHART SIGNALS MARKET TOP – SWING/MOMENTUM TRADING

I apologize for the noisy chart below, a lot is going on there, but if you focus on the yellow text and drawings, it will help keep things simple. This chart shows several reasons why we expect the price to fall. Based on technical and statistical analysis this chart points weakness over the next 1 - 3 trading days.

10-MINUTE CHART SIGNALS MARKET TOP – MOMENTUM/DAY TRADING

Monday night (Jan 7th) after the closing bell the SPY ETF chart generated a sizable price spike to the downside. Those of you who follow our spikes and or at least know about these setups then you know we expect the price to reach at least one if not all spike targets which are 30%, 50%, and 100% of the spike within 36 hours.

So far in 2019 we have has six price spikes five winners, one loser which is an 83% win rate thus far. Today’s spike is abnormally large not sure what that means regarding this one being a success but it is another spike signal, and the odds favor a move down once you see the other analysis supporting this setup.

CONCLUSION

If you are boring long term investor and have been stuck having to ride the stock market roller coaster with your life savings my trading newsletter can help you with your long term portfolio to not only avoid losses but profit from the collapse with one simple inverse exchange traded fund which trades like a stock and you buy and sell it at anytime! Knowing when you put your nest egg to work, and when to back away and protect it is crucial if you want to become wealthy or become wealthy.

On the flip side, if you are an active trader looking for monthly trades then be sure to join the Wealth Building Newsletter today and receive my daily pre-market video analysis, so you understand what took place yesterday, during overnight trading, and what to expect when the market opens.

Subscribe today and become part of our trading community and prosper from the coming market correction and real estate downturn.

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Will The Bubble Pop Regardless if the Fed Never Raises Rates?

The current overall SPX pattern is a broadening top, which is usually a very reliable pattern. The market continues to look as though it wants to go even lower. The momentum shift, which I have been expecting, has been slow to start, however one should be prepared for this occurrence ahead of time. Nevertheless, the large divergences which I have been viewing, in my proprietary oscillators, are most real, and, once the selling starts, the momentum should quickly move to the downside.

The current market is being supported by a lack of sellers more so than aggressive buying. With investors still thinking that there is no other place to store their money, they appear to be content with leaving their money with risk on assets within a market that is pushing to all time highs. This type of mentality usually leads to large losses rather than big gains. There isn’t any real opportunity for growth in the SPX that I can see right now.

Dow Theory: Market Indexes Must Confirm Each Other

The Dow Theory was formulated from a series of Wall Street Journal editorials which were authored by Charles H. Dow from 1900 until the time of his death in 1902. These editorials reflected Dow’s beliefs regarding how the stock market behaved and how the market could be used to measure the health of the business environment.

Dow first used his theory to create the Dow Jones Industrial Index and the Dow Jones Rail Index (now Transportation Index), which were originally compiled by Dow for TheWall Street Journal. Dow created these indexes because he felt they were an accurate reflection of the business conditions within the economy, seeing as they covered two major economic segments: industrial and rail (transportation). While these indexes have changed, over the last 100 years, the theory still applies to current market indexes.

Market indexes must confirm one another. In other words, a major reversal from a bull or bear market cannot be signaled unless both indexes (generally the Dow Industrial and Transports Averages) are in agreement. Currently, They are DIVERGING, issuing MAJOR NON-CONFIRMATION HIGH the Dow Jones Industrial average. If one couples this with the volatility index, this is a warning sign and a recipe for disaster.

The FEDs’ monetary policy over the last eight years has led to unproductive and reckless corporate behavior. The chart below shows U.S. non financials’ year on year change in net debt versus operating cash flow as measured by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITA).

The growth in operating cash flow peaked five years ago and has turned negative year over year. Net debt has continued to rise, which is not good for companies.

This has never before occurred in the post World War II period. In the cycle preceding the Great Recession, the peaks had been pretty much coincidental. Even during that cycle, they only diverged for two years, and by the time EBITA turned negative, year over year, as it has today, growth in net debt had been declining for over two years. Again, the current 5 year divergence is unprecedented in financial history. Today, most of that debt is used for financial engineering, as opposed to productive investments. In 2012, buybacks and M&A were $1.25 trillion, while all R&D and office equipment spending were $1.55 trillion. As valuations rose, since that time, R&D and office equipment grew by only $250 billion, but financial engineering grew by $750 billion, or three times this!

You can only live on your seed corn for so long. Despite there being no increase in their interest costs while growing their net borrowing by $1.7 trillion, the profit shares of the corporate sector peaked in 2012. The corporate sector, today, is stuck in a vicious cycle of earnings manipulation management, questionable allocation of capital, low productivity, declining margins and growing debt levels.

Conclusion:

In short, I continue to pound on the table to help keep you and fellow investors aware that something bad, financially, is going to take place – huge events like the tech bubble, the housing collapse a few years back, and now national financial instability. Experts saw all these events coming months and, in some cases, years in advance. Big things typically don’t happen fast, but once the momentum changes direction you better be ready for some life changing events and a change in the financial market place.

Follow my analysis in real time, swing trades, and even my long term investment positions so you can survive from the financial storm The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

A Half Dozen 2016 Stock Market Poisons

By Tony Sagami

Most of the “adults” on Wall Street are on vacation this week, and trading volume shrivels up to a trickle. That low volume is exactly the environment that the momentum crowd uses to paint the tape green. I call it the financial version of Reindeer Games.

However, once the “adults” return, the stock market will need to pay attention to the actual economic fundamentals and deal with facts—like, 2015 being the first year since 2009 when S&P 500 profits declined for the year.

I expect that 2016 is going to be a very difficult year for the stock market. Why do I say that? For any number of reasons, such as:

Poison #1: The Strong US Dollar

The greenback has been red hot. The US dollar index is up 9% in 2015 after gaining 13% in 2014.
A strong dollar can have a dramatic (negative) impact on the earnings of companies that do a significant amount of business outside of the US—for example, Johnson & Johnson, Ford, Yum Brands, Tiffany’s, Procter & Gamble, and hundreds more.

Poison #2: Depressed Energy Prices

I don’t have to tell you that oil prices have fallen like a rock. That’s a blessing when you stop at a gas station, but the impact on the finances of petro dependent economies, including certain US states, has been devastating. Plunging energy prices are going to clobber everything from emerging markets to energy stocks, to states like North Dakota and Texas.

Poison #3: Junk Bond Implosion

You may not have noticed because the decline has been orderly, but the junk bond market is on the verge of a total meltdown.

Third Avenue Management unexpectedly halted redemption of its high-yield (junk) Focused Credit Fund. Investors who want their money… tough luck. The investors who placed $789 million in this junk bond fund are now “beneficiaries of the liquidating trust” without any idea of how much they will get back and or even when that money will be returned. Third Avenue admitted that it may take “up to a year” for investors to get their money back. Ouch!

The problem is that the bids of the junkiest part of the junk bond market have collapsed. For example, the bonds of iHeartCommunications and Claire’s Stores have dropped 54% and 55%, respectively, since June!
What the junk bond market is experiencing is a liquidity crunch, the financial equivalent of everybody trying to stampede through a fire exit at the same time. In fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that blocking redemptions could lead to an increase in redemption requests at similar funds.

Poison #4: Rising Interest Rates

As expected, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates at its last meeting. The reaction (so far) hasn’t been too negative; however, we may have several more interest rate hikes coming our way.

Every single one of the 17 Federal Reserve members expects the fed funds rate to increase by at least 50 bps before the end of 2016, and 10 of the 17 expect rates to rise at least 100 bps higher in the next 12 months. I doubt our already struggling economy could handle those increases.

Poison #5: Government Interference

Sure, 2016 is an election year, which brings uncertainty and possibly turmoil. But the Obama administration could shove several changes down America’s throat via executive action—such as higher minimum wage, limits on drug pricing, gun control, trade sanctions including tariffs, immigration, climate change, and increased business regulation.

I don’t give the Republican led Congress a free pass either, as I have no faith that it will put the best interests of the US ahead of its desire to fight Obama.

Poison #6: China Contagion

We do indeed live in a small, interconnected world, and it’s quite possible that something outside of the US could send our stock market tumbling. Middle East challenges notwithstanding, the one external shock I worry the most about is one coming from China. The sudden devaluation of the yuan and the significant easing of monetary policy by the People’s Bank of China are signs that trouble is brewing.

However, I think the biggest danger is an explosion of non-performing loans in China. Debt levels in China, both public and private, have exploded, and I continue to hear anecdotal evidence that default and non-performing loans are on the rise.

Conclusion

To be truthful, I have no idea which of the above or maybe even something completely out of left field will poison the stock market in 2016, but I am convinced that trouble is coming. Call me a pessimist, a bear, or an idiot… but my personal portfolio and that of my Rational Bear subscribers are prepared to profit from falling stock prices.

Tony Sagami
30 year market expert Tony Sagami leads the Yield Shark and Rational Bear advisories at Mauldin Economics. To learn more about Yield Shark and how it helps you maximize dividend income, click here.

To learn more about Rational Bear and how you can use it to benefit from falling stocks and sectors, click here.

The article Connecting the Dots: A Half Dozen 2016 Stock Market Poisons was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.

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How to Momentum Trade Gold & Silver Stocks

Back on April 9th I posted a short tutorial on how to momentum trade gold along with my short term gold forecast.

Today I wanted to do a follow up video for my gold market traders for three reasons:

1. I had lots of great feedback from traders taking advantage of what I showed to profit in the past week.
2. To show you how and why this strategy works better with gold stocks and silver stocks.
3. To provide my short term gold forecast so you are on the right side of the market for next week.
4. Also you should see my major long term Gold Forecast

 

Get my gold forecast and gold trade alerts at The Gold & Oil Guy

See you in the markets!
Chris Vermeulen


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U.S. Dollar Index ETF UUP Trading Strategy

We all know quantitative easing devalues the Dollar but contrary to that general statement it looks as though we could see the dollar index continue to rise for a few more weeks. If we analyze the chart of the Dollar ETF (UUP) it is clear that the short term momentum has turned up. The break above the down trend line and recent bounce off support bodes well for the dollar index.

The bull flag chart pattern that has formed in the past month has a measured move price target of roughly $22.30. The level also happens to be a key pivot point on the chart along with high volume resistance. I expect the dollar to continue to work its way higher over the next week or two with $22.30 being the line in the sand where sellers will jump on price and drive it back down, or at minimum force price to consolidate for a few days.

US Dollar ETF Trading Strategy – Daily Chart Analysis




Chris Vermeulen – www.Gold & Oil Guy.com - Free Trading Ideas


Our new video: Why Market Makers Can’t Screw you with ETFs

Is this a buy signal in coffee? JO

Our trading partner Jim Robinson of INO.com is talking coffee today and he is sharing his expert analysis of charts to our readers. Each week he'll be be analyzing a different chart using our Trade Triangle technology and his experience. Today he is going to take a look at the technical picture of Coffee, contract (NYBOT_KC.Z13.E). Here at The Crude Oil Trader we are using ticker JO for our current coffee trades.

This week let's take a look at the December Coffee futures chart.

We use the weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle to tell the trend when trading futures and the daily MarketClub Trade Triangle to time the trade. December Coffee is on a weekly green MarketClub Trade Triangle and a daily red MarketClub Trade Triangle which is just exactly the way we want the Triangles to line up for a buy setup.

If December Coffee trades higher from here and puts in a daily green MarketClub Trade Triangle that is the place to go long because the weekly and daily Trade Triangles will then both be pointing up. If a long trade does happen in Coffee, then the stop if wrong is if Coffee trades lower and puts in a red daily Trade Triangle.

This is a great way to trade because we are getting long with the trend and will catch all the big trending moves when they happen, while cutting our loses short if the trade doesn't move our way. If Coffee continues lower from here and puts in a red weekly Trade Triangle then the long trade is off, which is fine, as we are following what the market is telling us, and lower prices from here would cancel the current long trade setup.

Coffee is a Chart to Watch right now, because a big move higher from here could be about to happen.




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The 30 Second Technical Flash Chart Report on U.S. Equities

Chris Vermeulen shows us how U.S. Equities opened higher on Monday and are, in his opinion,  setting up for a sharp pullback based on technical analysis using trends, cycles, momentum, volume, market breadth and key resistance zones.

Take a look at his chart work for a quick flash of what he thinks.

Entire article > "The 30 Second Technical Flash Chart Report on US Equities"



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U.S. Stock Market Foreshadows Another Rally – True Story!

Today our trading partner Chris Vermeulen paints a clear picture of this market with price, volume, momentum, cycles and sentiment. Will he start shorting the bounces? Let's find out......

Over the past couple week’s investors and traders have been growing increasingly bearish for the US stock market. While I too also feel this rally is getting long in the teeth there is no reason to exit long positions and start shorting.

My followers know I do not pick tops and I do not pick bottoms. This I explained in great detail in my previous report. There are more cons to that tactic and on several different levels (timing, volatility, emotions, lack of experience, addiction) than there are pro’s.

Keeping things simple, short and to the point here is my thinking for today and this week on the broad market. Remember my analysis is 100% technical based using price, volume, cycles, volatility, momentum and sentiment. I try not to let any emotions, gut feel, or bias flow into my projections. I say “TRY” because I am only human and at times when the market and emotions are flying high they still take control of me but that is few and far between.

So let’s get to the charts shall we!

SP500 Index Trading Daily Chart – SPY Exchange Traded Fund

The SP500 index continues to hold up within its rising trend channel and the recent pullback is bullish. Remember the trend is your friend and it can continue for very long periods of times ranging from days, weeks, and even months…

The US Stock Market MUSCLE Indexes

The charts below show and explain my thinking… But in short we need these two indexes to be strong if we want to see another major leg higher in the SPY, or to at least test the recent highs.

Today the market opened slightly higher and push up in the first 30 minutes with strong volume. Overall the market looks as though it needs a day pause/pullback before taking another run higher.

Small cap stocks are the ULTIMATE Risk On play and generate ridiculous gains in very short periods of time. I focus on these with my trading partner exclusively at ActiveTradingPartners.com where we have been making a killing on trades like NUGT up 21% in 1 day and IOC up 11% in 2 day.

Bullish Index Price, Volume & Candles

The SP500 has been very predictable the past couple weeks for both intraday trading during key reversal times in the market when price has pullback to a support zone, and also for swing trading. Last week we myself and followers bought SSO ETF when the market pulled back and we exited the next day for a 3.5% profit.

Yesterday was a perfect intraday example with the SP500 bottoming out at my 11:30am morning reversal time zone with price trading at support. Price then rallied into the close posting a 12 point gain on the SP500 futures for a simple momentum play pocketing $600.

US Stock Market Mid-Week Conclusion:

In short, I still like stocks as the place to be and will not get bearish until proven wrong. Once price reverses and the technical clearly paint a bearish picture with price, volume, momentum, cycles and sentiment will I start shorting the bounces.

This week is a pivotal one for the stock market so expect increased volatility and possibly lower lows still until the counter trend flushes the weak position out before moving higher.

If you like my simple, clean and profitable market analysis just click here to join my NEWSLETTER

Chris Vermeulen


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What's Behind the "Big Trade"

In today's free trading video John Carter will show you how you can grow any size account using options.

Here's just a few topics John will be covering.....

*    The difference between trading for income vs. growth

*   Our recent $223,234.00 trading day

*    John's favorite time frames to trade

*     How to trade momentum stocks

*    The one indicator we can’t trade without

                         And much more.....

Simply fill out your name and email address and click on the submit button, and it will take you right to the video.


Just click here to watch "What's Behind the Big Trade"

Seven Keys in Timing Stock Market Tops – Part II

Timing stock market tops and bottoms is risky business and we all know the more the more risk we take the more potential gain would could also made. Correctly timing a top or bottom for any investment is flat out exciting not to mention financially rewarding. But this high risk trading tactic does come with some major issues which you must FULLY understand so that you can protect your capital and self confidence.

On May 13th I wrote a special report on how to spot market tops just before they happen and how to do it with a very high probability of success. I also explain the major pit falls to be aware of so you stay on the right side of the market.

I recommend you read this special report right now.... "How to Spot and Time Stock Market Tops"

That special report truly showed you what was going to happen a few weeks before it did. Much like how this report shows you what is likely to happen in June.

Looking at the market with my YOU ARE HERE type of using cycles, volume, price patterns and momentum to forecast what is likely to unfold in the coming weeks. Depending on the time frame used for my analysis I can figure out with a high probability where price will be in a few minutes, hours or days also. Mall Market Directory – You Are Here

Stock market tops are tough to trade and time. That is because there are so many things happening in the media and emotions running wild that it’s tough to get a grasp on what you should really be focusing on to keep a level head trade around it.

Market tops are typically not an event but rather a progression that takes much longer than most individuals expect. I still find myself jumping the gun at times and I know this and have been through this process hundreds of times in various investments. The human brain is a powerful tool but emotions can force you to override your rules/strategy still.

Stop Fighting! – Bulls & Bears are BOTH Correct at this Stage

It does not matter where you go to get your stock market news and reports… Everyone is arguing their bullish or bearish case more than EVERY. There is a reason for this and it’s because the SP500, DJIA, RUT and NASDAQ appear to be entering a cycle top. What does this mean? It means the uptrend is almost over from a technical analyst point of view, and those who are have been bearish for a long time feel the market topping out more now than ever in their gut that this is the top.

Keeping it simple removing news, economic data, emotions and biases we are left with one thing which is technical analysis. This is based on price alone and that is important to remember because the only thing that pays you money for an investment is when price moves in your favor. Believe it or not price only has blips on the charts here and there which is based off news, economic data etc… In the big picture stock prices tend to lead economic data by several months and in some cases years.

So the big question is this… If price action is the only thing that pays you when trading why bother worrying about all the other opinions, news out there. That stuff only adds to the confusion and in most cases gets you on the wrong side of the market.

Timing the Market Top Conclusion:

In short, from a technical point of view the SP500 remains in an uptrend. But according to technical analysis the upside momentum is starting to slow. If we get a few more down days then the trend will flip and be down but it has not yet happened.

When the trend does reverse down you must remember that 80% of the time price will bounce back up to test near the recent highs before truly rolling over and collapsing. Think of it like a zombie movie. Just when you think you killed one it comes back to life for one last scare before its dead.

Just to touch on stock market bottoms so you do not get confused. Stock market bottoms are little different than tops so they are traded differently. I will cover them when the time comes.

Trading the market is not easy during this type of condition, which is why members and myself got long SSO on the 23rd and two days later sold out for a 3.5% gain. I am now looking to reload this week for another bounce/rally play but only time will tell if we get another setup.

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Is it finally time to go long coffee?

If you have been following us you know we have been adding to our long coffee position using ticker "JO". Are you on board or do you see coffee going lower. Coffee bears have gained back some momentum the last couple of days. Today we've asked our friend Jim Robinson at INO.com to provide his expert analysis of the coffee trade to our readers. Each week he'll be be analyzing a different chart for us using our Trade Triangles and his experience.....

Coffee could be turning bullish, so this week let's take a look at the Coffee Chart. With Futures we use the weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle for trend, and the daily MarketClub Trade Triangle for timing.

*    Coffee put in a weekly green Trade Triangle on what looks to be the breakout to the upside of the base.

*   Coffee put in a daily red Trade Triangle on what looks to be a test of the base.

*   If Coffee trades higher and puts in a green daily Trade Triangle odds would be with bulls.

The MACD made a bullish momentum divergence at the lows and is currently on a buy signal, which supports the bullish case for Coffee as of right now. If Coffee were to continue lower from here and puts in a red weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle, then odds would not be with the bullish case for Coffee any more.

So even though it looks to be a big bullish opportunity for Coffee, we'll just have to sit back and let the market tell us what to do next. So this looks to be a great Chart to Watch right now, as exciting things could be happening on the upside in Coffee soon.




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Top 3 Trading Indicators for Profitable & Simple Trading

Many investors and traders make the same mistakes assuming that one needs a complex trading system to consistently profit from the stock market. On the contrary, some of the top performing strategies are the ones with the least amount of moving parts and are simple. Because their simplicity they can be easily and consistently followed.

The methodologies we use for timing the market, picking stocks and option trades are very simple because we focus mainly on price, volume and momentum. These three indicators are the key to success. When these are used together you are able time your entries and exits during key turning points, clearly define risk and reward levels while maintaining a clear unbiased state of mind which allows one to trade almost emotionless.

As my Trading System Mastery coach taught me, if you do not have a detailed trading plan which a five year old could trade, then you do not have a solid strategy and will have unnecessary losses and emotional stress.

So here are a couple tips to keep things simple and emotionless: 





Our recent trade in Infoblox Inc. (BLOX):

This stock was flashing several signals (price, volume and momentum) that a bounce or rally was likely going to happen within a few weeks. This is a good example of a swing trade based purely on our main indicators.



Our Broad Market Outlook: Current stock market prices are starting to warn us that a market correction is near. You can read more about this in detail in our last report “Stocks Preparing for a Pullback, Buy Bas News, Sell the Good”.

We all know the market works with the saying.....

“If the market doesn’t shake you out, it will wait you out”.

How does this work? Simple really, during down trends and just before a market bottom we tend to see capitulation spikes in selling. These scare the last of the long positions out of the market and suck in the greedy shorts after the move has already been made.

During an uptrend which is what we are in now the market makes spike highs designed to scare out the shorts and get greedy long traders to buy more. Once again after the move has already been made and likely near the market top.

If you are the type of trader who always tries to pick tops and bottoms against the current trend then you may like to know this little tip… The largest percent moves typically happen during the last 75% of the trend. What does this mean? It means when you take your position against the trend trying to pick the dead top or bottom you are most likely going to get be caught on the wrong side of the market in a big way.

Most traders I know based on recent emails have been short the market for 1-3 weeks and many keep emailing me that they are adding more shorts each day because they feel the market is going to top. So me being a contrarian by nature in terms of what the masses are doing, if everyone is still holding on to their shorts we likely have not seen the top just yet. Another 1-2% jump from here should be enough to shake them out though.

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Are you ready? Gold Traders and Investors Better Get Ready To Rumble!

We have talked about how gold, silver and gold mining stocks have been flying under the media radar for over a year and that they were not catching the attention of traders, investors and the public anymore. I also said it would take some sharp price action (breakdown or rally) for it to be front and center again on TV, Radio and Newspapers.

But since gold has plummeted 17.5% dropping from $1600 down to $1320 per ounce with silver and gold stocks falling also they are now headline news once again. This move has caused some serious damage to the charts when looking at it from a technical analysis point of view. Below are some basic analysis points that show a new swing trading entry point.

The Technical Traders Chart Analysis

Broken Support – Once a support level has been broken it becomes resistance. Gold is trading under a major resistance level.

Momentum Bursts - Since the April 15th low, gold has been setting up for another short selling entry point. Remember the market tends to move in bursts of three, seven or ten days then price reverses direction or pauses. It has now been 10 days.

Moving Average Resistance – Gold has worked its way up to the 20 day moving average which can act as resistance.

Bearish Inside Bars – This type of chart pattern points to lower prices. When there is a big down day followed by 3, 7 or 10 up days inside the price action of the down bar we can typically expect another sharp drop which tests the recent lows as shown with the arrow on the chart.



Gold Short Selling Conclusion:

In short, gold is setting up for a low risk entry point that should allow us to profit from lower gold prices. Using an inverse ETF like DZZ or even the gold mining stock inverse ETF DUST could be played. These funds go up in value as the price of gold falls.

While I expect gold to pullback, I do not think it will make another leg lower. Instead, a test of the recent low or pierce of the low by a few bucks then reverse and start building a bullish basing pattern before going higher.

From our trading partner Chris Vermeulen.

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The Stock Market Trend & Hot Sector ETF’s

Trading with the trend should be your main focus for long term success no matter what type of trader you are (Options Trader, Stock Trader, or ETF Trader) although it’s not as easy as it sounds.

The good news is that there is a simple trading model that removes 95% of trading analysis and greatly reduces trading related emotions because the key technical analysis rules based on one of the world’s best chart technicians (John Murphy) technical analysis methods have been applied to the chart automatically. The key is to identify the trend of the market. Once that is known you can focus on trading strategies that take advantage of the current trend.

Over the past few years I have been creating this indicator/chart layout tool which converts my chart reading experience, tips and tricks into a simple system removing analysis paralysis which cause most individuals to second guess what they see and don’t pull the trigger. Using too many indicators or read/listening several other traders commentaries with different views than you causes this paralysis.

My simple red light, green light model clearly shows a viewer the current trend and expected price range (high and low) looking forward a couple days. I uses a series of data points like volatility, volume, cycles, momentum, chart patterns and logic rules. It even shows extreme pivot points helping you find low risk entry prices for both bull and bear market conditions.

Recent trends and signals for the SP500 Index Daily Chart:



Trading With the Trend – The Sweet Spots

Knowing the direction of the market is simple using the chart system above but trading with the trend is not that simple because of natural human behavior. Instead traders fall victim to trying to pick a top or bottom because they think the price is overbought or oversold and they want to catch the next big trend change.

We all know the saying “the market climbs a wall of worry”. Well, the biggest worry most traders have is buying long in a bull market because stocks and price always look overbought and ready to top each week… This leads to people trying to get fancy picking a top only to get their head handed to them a few days or weeks later depending on how stubborn they are to exit a losing position.

The key to long term success is to buy during broad market (SP500) corrections once sentiment, cycles and momentum are starting to flash extreme oversold conditions. These show up as green arrows on the trend chart. At that point most sectors and high beta stocks like IBM, GOOG etc… should be at a key entry points with most of the downside risk removed already. Remember ¾ stocks follow the broad market so it only makes sense to follow it also.

What about a runaway stock market? This is when the stock market does not pullback but just keep grinding its way higher and higher… The only thing you can do is sit in cash, or look for a stock or sector that is having a small pause or pullback and get long with a small position until you get that broad market pullback and major by signal to add more.

Below are a few sectors showing a minor pause/pullback within this bull market:


 

Mid-Week Trend Conclusion:

Overall, the broad market remains in an uptrend. While I would like to see the SP500 pullback and give us another major buy signal like it did in December and February I do mind that much if prices keep running higher as it just give us more cushion and potential profits for when the trend does eventually roll over and flip signals. I hope you found this report interesting. It’s just scratching the surface of this topic but it’s a start. Know the stock market trends by joining my free newsletter at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen


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Fed "Hopes" Giving Bulls Some Fresh Upside Near Term Technical Momentum

The U.S. stock indexes closed higher today as the bulls are gaining some fresh upside near term technical momentum. The market place was calmer and in more of a “risk on” mentality Tuesday following the weekend Greek elections that have at least temporarily assuaged the European Union debt and financial crisis.

There were reports Tuesday that Greece will form a new coalition government as soon as Wednesday. Traders and investors are awaiting the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting and its statement Wednesday afternoon. The Fed is determining its next course of U.S. monetary policy. Recent downbeat U.S. data has led to growing expectations for further easing of U.S. monetary policy.

Most reckon the Fed will implement some form of fresh easing of U.S. monetary policy at this week's meeting. The key will be how aggressive the Fed will respond with fresh easing.

All quotes are August contracts being reported.....

Crude oil closed up $0.85 a barrel at $84.45 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering in a bear market. The lower U.S. dollar index was also bullish for crude today. The crude bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

Natural gas closed down 8.4 cents at $2.584 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw a corrective pullback from recent solid gains. Prices did hit a fresh four week high early on today. Bulls have gained good upside near term technical momentum recently to suggest a market low is in place. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.

Gold futures closed down $3.10 an ounce at $1,623.90 today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw some profit taking pressure from recent gains and some position evening ahead of Wednesday's FOMC results. The key “outside markets” were bullish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. Gold market bulls have the slight near term technical advantage.

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Let's Compare Notes....ONG Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

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If you are a regular reader here you know we like to include trade ideas and opinions from many different sources. Here's is the "Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook" from the staff at ONG. They really take the emotion out of trading and stick to the facts. And the fact is, the bulls are in trouble here.

Crude oil's decline resumed by taking out 89.28 temporary low and reaches as low as 87.75 so far. 61.8% retracement of 74.95 to 100.55 at 88.55 is broken firmly, suggesting downside momentum is building up again. Deeper decline should be seen to 80 psychological level and then 74.95 support. On the upside, break of 92.21 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are developing into a three wave consolidation pattern. And, the third leg should have already started at 110.55. Deeper fall should eventually be seen to 74.95 low and possibly below. Though, we'd likely see strong support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. Hence we'll look for reversal signal below 74.95.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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Monday Brings Solid Downside Move in Crude Oil

Crude oil closed down $1.70 a barrel at $94.43 today. Prices closed near mid range today and hit a fresh 4 1/2 month low. The bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Prices today saw a downside “breakout” from a bearish pennant pattern on the daily bar chart.

Natural gas closed down 8.4 cents at $2.425 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw a corrective pullback from recent gains. The bulls still have some upside near term technical momentum. The bears do still have the overall near term technical advantage, however.

Gold futures closed down $20.10 an ounce at $1,563.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 4 1/2 month low. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for gold today aided by the U.S. dollar index moving higher. Serious near term chart damage has been inflicted recently. Gold bears have the solid near term technical advantage. A 2 1/2 month old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart.