The narrative a while back was that the world would face a shortage of heavy crude because sanctions on Iran and Venezuela had reduced production and exports. Some also implied that shale oil would fill up U.S. storage because American refiners were designed to process the heavy, high sulfur crudes from Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and the like.
But the light, sweet crude is in high demand for export, and that appetite is likely to continue to grow with the implementation of IMO 2020 around the corner, going into effect January 1st. Freight rates from the U.S. Gulf to Europe have surged to record highs.
Equinor ASA and Unipec, the trading arm of China's top refiner Sinopec, have provisionally chartered Aframax tankers for $60,700 per day, an increase of almost 30 percent in a week, a new record high, according to shipbroker Poten & Partners. Aframax tankers are the “workhorse” of the U.S.-Europe oil trade, which has risen more than 60 percent in 2019 compared to 2018.
The EPIC pipeline began service in August. It has the capacity to deliver 400,000 b/d from the Permian Basin to terminals on the Gulf Coast. The new Cactus II pipeline system also started shipping crude oil in August. It has the capacity to deliver 670,000 b/d of crude oil from the Permian.
And the Gray Oak pipeline began service in November and will be capable of delivering 900,000 b/d at capacity. This new takeaway capacity will effectively reduce the production breakeven costs of substantial Permian crude oil because the pipeline charges are significantly lower than trucking costs.
This should provide stimulus to shale oil production growth, which had slowed due to takeaway pipeline capacity constraints.
Exports Rising
U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.412 million barrels per day for the weeks ending December 13, 2019. Crude oil exports were 33 percent higher than the same weeks last year. But in the year-to-date, exports are over 50 percent higher.
Exports of crude oil and petroleum products have surged to almost 9 million barrels per day. This makes the United States the largest petroleum exporting country in the world.
Net oil imports have recently dropped below zero, making the U.S. a net oil exporter for the first time in modern history. As a result, the U.S. economy is no longer vulnerable overall to a spike in oil prices, though such a development would hurt consumers while helping domestic oil producers.
The U.S. balance of payments and trade would not be adversely impacted. This is a positive tailwind for the value of the U.S. dollar.
It also has political and defense spending implications. For example, following the attacks on Saudi Arabia in September, President Trump did not put the U.S. military at risk to defend KSA. He also did not counter-attack Iran on behalf of Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia reportedly began talks with Iran to defuse the situation, something the Kingdom did not have to try when the U.S. felt obligated to protect its oil supply for economic reasons.
Conclusions
The U.S. shale revolution is being re-booted by the opening up of new pipes in the second half of 2019. Given strong foreign demand and lower effective breakeven costs, a new surge may be in the works. Market observers who saw growth slowing may be in for a wake-up call over the coming six months when the new economic conditions take hold.
Check back to see my next post!
Best,
Robert Boslego
INO.com Contributor - Energies
Trade ideas, analysis and low risk set ups for commodities, Bitcoin, gold, silver, coffee, the indexes, options and your retirement. We'll help you keep your emotions out of your trading.
Showing posts with label Venezuela. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Venezuela. Show all posts
Friday, December 27, 2019
American Shale Oil In High Demand
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Monday, January 28, 2019
Will Crude Oil Find Support Above $50 Dollars?
Recent global news regarding Venezuela, China, and global oil supply/production have resulted in the price of crude oil pausing over the past few weeks near $53 to $55 ppb. We believe the continued supply glut and uncertainty will result in oil prices falling, briefly, back below $50 ppb before any new price rally begins. Our researchers at The Technical Traders believe historical resistance near $54 - $55 is strong enough to drive prices lower before new momentum picks up for a renewed price rally.
Eventually, yes, oil will rally above $55 and attempt to target the $65+ price level. Yet we don’t believe that move is going to happen right now. We believe the global uncertainty, the slowing Chinese economy and the global supply glut will result in a fundamental price decrease before any momentum for an upside price move begins. Our analysis suggests a price move back below $50 ppb, likely targeting the $46 - $47 level, where basing may occur.
Uncertainty in Venezuela and other oil producing nations may result in a disruption in supply at some point in the future. We must be cautious of unknown situations that could result in dramatic price shifts. Yet, overall, with supply levels still high and slowing global economic expectations, it makes sense that oil would attempt to base and find support near recent lows – between $46 - $48.
Visit The Technical Traders here to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades in 2019. Learn how our proprietary predictive modeling systems have called these moves in the past and how our research team can assist you in finding great opportunities in the future.
Chris Vermeulen
Eventually, yes, oil will rally above $55 and attempt to target the $65+ price level. Yet we don’t believe that move is going to happen right now. We believe the global uncertainty, the slowing Chinese economy and the global supply glut will result in a fundamental price decrease before any momentum for an upside price move begins. Our analysis suggests a price move back below $50 ppb, likely targeting the $46 - $47 level, where basing may occur.
Uncertainty in Venezuela and other oil producing nations may result in a disruption in supply at some point in the future. We must be cautious of unknown situations that could result in dramatic price shifts. Yet, overall, with supply levels still high and slowing global economic expectations, it makes sense that oil would attempt to base and find support near recent lows – between $46 - $48.
Visit The Technical Traders here to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades in 2019. Learn how our proprietary predictive modeling systems have called these moves in the past and how our research team can assist you in finding great opportunities in the future.
Chris Vermeulen
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Monday, November 14, 2016
A Chicken in Every Pot
By Jeff Thomas
That’s a pretty powerful statement. Is it historically supportable? Let’s visit a current example – Venezuela – to examine the overall process of collectivism, then look at a few other historical cases and see what we can learn. Collectivism will always eventually destroy the economy of any nation, no matter how great it may be.Venezuela – 17 Years of Collectivism
In 1980, Venezuela was deemed to be the fourteenth most economically free country in the world. Today, it’s a veritable train wreck, having failed in every conceivable way. How did this happen? Was it just bad luck? No, quite the contrary.
Venezuela’s prosperity was fueled primarily by the export of oil. The downward spiral began in the 1980s as a result of a drop in the world oil price. Until that time, there had been strong public support for the free market, but diminished oil receipts resulted in a decline in living standards for most all Venezuelans, which left them open to claims by collectivist political candidates that the whole problem was the free market. In 1999, they elected Hugo Chávez, who promised to solve the problem through collectivism – the promise of a chicken in every pot.
Mister Chávez began to take from the “haves” and provide largesse for the “have-nots.” Not surprisingly, he was highly praised by the have-nots. So, he went further. He nationalized many of Venezuela’s industries. Industry became less and less profitable, so less and less money flowed through the system each year. Eventually, the revenue to the government was insufficient to pay for the promised largesse. The leader then died and the new leader, Nicolás Maduro, inherited a zombie economy. In desperation, he introduced capital controls and increased nationalization and regulations, hoping to squeeze as much as possible from the economy before it went off the cliff. The result was a fully dysfunctional economy, replete with massive job losses, increasing shortages, and, finally, starvation.
Again, having once been number fourteen on the list of economically free countries, Venezuela is now at the very bottom – at number 152 – as a direct result of collectivism. As Margaret Thatcher once said, “The trouble with socialism is that, eventually, you run out of other people’s money.” Quite so. It does take a while, however. A newly collectivist state at first appears to be solving problems. What it’s really doing is feeding off of past profits. It gobbles up the economy’s store of nuts, but when these nuts are gone, that’s it – there’s no more, and the economy collapses. People starve.
Venezuela now has increasing shortages of food, hyperinflation has set in, the government is totally corrupt, the government is running out of funds for entitlements, and government healthcare is overburdened and failing. Like Cuba in the 1980s, there are no longer any dogs or cats on the streets of Caracas, and for the same reason as in Cuba – they’re being eaten by those with no other source of protein.
USSR – 74 Years
Vladimir Lenin introduced collectivism to Russia in 1917. He was able to do so because a revolution had just been completed by the people of Russia as a result of their dissatisfaction with a decline in the standard of living of most Russians. For decades thereafter, capitalism existed within the primarily communist system, but eventually, the parasite sucked the host dry. The USSR collapsed in 1991 for the same reason Venezuela is collapsing today.
China – 29 Years
Mao Tse-tung took over China in 1949 with a collectivist regime. But the 10,000-year rule he promised fell a bit short. It ended in 1978 in an economic dead-end. It followed the same path as the USSR, but the process was quicker.
Cuba – 57+ Years
Cuba lasted a bit longer. In the 1950s Cubans had become dissatisfied, due to the decline in the standard of living for the majority of Cubans, and were ripe targets for collectivist promises. They welcomed Fidel Castro in 1959. Cuba limped along for decades, but in recent years, the coffers of the state have dried up and the only hope to keep paying the salaries to government leaders lies in the grassroots cuentapropista movement – a rebirth of the free market. Collectivism in Cuba is nearing its end.
In each of the above countries, the pattern has been roughly the same.
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A formerly prosperous country experiences a period in which the standard of living for the majority of citizens drops significantly.
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The voters react by electing a new leader who promises a chicken in every pot (in essence, collectivism, although it is not always called that at the time of the election).
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The new leader begins to rob the producers of wealth to provide largesse for those with less. This has a direct positive benefit for those with less, resulting in an increase in voters supporting collectivist promises over a period of years.
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Over time, the free market experiences a permanent loss of wealth, resulting in diminished largesse for those who are now dependent upon it.
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The government imposes increasing capital controls and other regulations, which deteriorate the free market more severely, causing inflation, shortages of goods, loss of jobs, and eventually starvation and systemic collapse.
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The voters choose a new leader who promises fiscal responsibility.
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With a return to a freer market, prosperity slowly reappears.
So what does the above review tell us? Has the world learned its lesson? Not at all. What we can surmise from the above is that, whenever the standard of living for the majority of citizens drops significantly in a jurisdiction, the voters will be ripe for empty promises. In every such case, collectivism will appear to be the best solution.
Collectivism is by its very nature a parasitical system that creates nothing. It therefore will always eventually destroy the economy of any nation where it’s implemented, no matter how great that nation may be. The only uncertainty is the number of years required for destruction.
Today we’re witnessing the collapse of the primary jurisdictions of the former “free” world. They’re operating on a quasi-capitalist system that has been eroded by repeated injections of collectivism (primarily socialism and fascism). Increasingly, voters in each of these jurisdictions are becoming convinced that the promises made by collectivist candidates “just make sense.” As the system continues to spiral downward, as it inevitably will, the scales are likely to tip, not in the direction of a return to the free market, but in the direction of full-on collectivism.
Editor’s Note: Socialism often leads to economic and societal collapse, hyperinflation, shortages, and shrinking personal freedom. This has happened most recently in Venezuela.
The truth is, it can happen anywhere. The U.S. is not immune. In fact, it’s extremely vulnerable.
Increasing socialism, bad financial decisions, and massive debt levels will cause another financial crisis sooner rather than later.
We believe the coming crash is going to be much worse, much longer, and very different than what we saw in 2008 and 2009. Unfortunately, most people have no idea what really happens when an economy collapses, let alone how to prepare….
That’s exactly why Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video.
It also reveals how financial shock far greater than 2008 could strike America by the end of the year. And how it could either wipe out a big part of your savings... or be the fortune-building opportunity of a lifetime.
Click here to watch now |
The article A Chicken in Every Pot was originally published at caseyresearch.com.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2015
This “Pig” Just Made a Massive Bet on Gold
By Dan Steinhart
Stan Druckenmiller is going big on gold.Druckenmiller is one of the world’s most successful and respected traders. As a hedge fund manager from 1986 to 2010, he generated an incredible average annual return of 30%. Druckenmiller was also George Soros’s right hand man at Quantum, Soros’s famed hedge fund. Quantum’s now legendary 1992 trade shorting the British pound was Druckenmiller’s idea. It made Quantum about $1 billion. People say the trade “broke the Bank of England.”
Most professional investors preach diversification. But Druckenmiller says he’s successful because he’s not afraid to concentrate his bets when he really believes in a trade. He calls it “being a pig.” The first thing I heard when I got in the business, not from my mentor, was bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.
I’m here to tell you I was a pig. And I strongly believe the only way to make long-term returns in our business that are superior is by being a pig. I think diversification and all the stuff they’re teaching at business school today is probably the most misguided concept everywhere.
Druckenmiller’s fund recently bought $300 million worth of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), an ETF that tracks the price of gold. It’s a huge bet, even for a big time trader like Druckenmiller. He put 20% of his fund’s money into this trade, and it’s his largest position. Druckenmiller seems to like gold for the same reasons Casey Research likes gold. He has harshly criticized the Federal Reserve for creating the frothy conditions that led to the 2008 financial crisis. And he says the Fed’s policies today are more reckless today than ever.
If you look at the real root cause behind the financial crisis, we’re doubling down. Our monetary policy is so much more reckless and so much more aggressively pushing the people in this room and everybody else out the risk curve that we’re doubling down on the same policy that really put us there…..The Fed cut interest rates to nearly zero after the financial crisis. This has encouraged all kinds of bad investing and reckless speculation. When the banks pay microscopic interest rates, people get desperate and pile into junk bonds, stocks, and real estate. This drives asset prices higher and higher.....which creates a lot of danger.
It also leads to depreciating paper currencies…which will eventually lead to much higher gold prices. In just the last year, the Japanese yen has dropped 18% versus the US dollar. The euro has dropped 17%...the Australian dollar has dropped 20%...and the Canadian dollar has dropped 17%. Regular readers know this is part of the “Currency Wars.” Governments are devaluing their currencies in an attempt to stoke their economies. Politicians think that making a currency cheaper (usually by printing more currency units) will provide an economic stimulus.It doesn’t work. If devaluing currencies were the path to prosperity, countries like Zimbabwe and Venezuela would be the richest countries on Earth…instead of economic basket cases.
Gold has been struggling....…
The price of gold has fallen 41% since hitting an all time high in August 2011. Druckenmiller’s huge bet indicates that he thinks the bottom is finally in. Druckenmiller has made a career out of getting big calls like this correct. We wouldn’t want to bet against him.
If you agree that gold is near its bottom, you could buy physical gold or shares of GLD like Druckenmiller. That could easily give you a 50-to-75% gain in the coming years. If you want a chance at much bigger gains, consider investing in gold stocks. Gold stocks are highly leveraged to the price of gold. In a bull market, gold stocks rise much more than the price of gold. It’s common for the best run gold companies to increase by 20-to-1 or even 30-to-1 during a gold bull market.
International Speculator is our advisory focused on the best small gold stocks with huge upside potential. Right now, gold stocks look like they’re near the end of one of the worst bear markets in history. In fact, gold stocks are cheaper today than they’ve been in at least twenty years…as we’ll show you in a moment.
International Speculator will teach you how to position yourself in the best gold stocks before the next bull market begins.
Click here to read more about the opportunity we have to buy gold stocks today… at prices we probably won’t see again for another twenty years once the bull gets going.
The article This “Pig” Just Made a Massive Bet on Gold was originally published at caseyresearch.com.
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Friday, April 19, 2013
Fridays Earnings...Schlumberger and Baker Hughes SLB BHI
Schlumberger (SLB) reports 1st quarter EPS of $1.01, beats by $0.02. Revenue of $10.67B misses by $0.08B. “The outlook for North America remains uncertain, with lower than expected rig activity and continuing pricing weakness," CEO Paal Kibsgaard says. Oilfield services revenue from North America, the region which generates most of the top line, fell 4.2% to $3.29B. Overall drilling revenue was $4.1B, up 9% year over year. Shares +0.5% premarket.
Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) announced today adjusted net income for the first quarter of 2013 of $290 million or $0.65 per diluted share. This compares to net income of $0.49 per diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2012, and $0.86 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2012. Adjusted net income for the first quarter of 2013 excludes a foreign exchange loss of $23 million before and after tax ($0.05 per diluted share) related to the devaluation of Venezuela's currency in February 2013.
Today Market Update Video
Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) announced today adjusted net income for the first quarter of 2013 of $290 million or $0.65 per diluted share. This compares to net income of $0.49 per diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2012, and $0.86 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2012. Adjusted net income for the first quarter of 2013 excludes a foreign exchange loss of $23 million before and after tax ($0.05 per diluted share) related to the devaluation of Venezuela's currency in February 2013.
Today Market Update Video
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Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Nearly 69% of U.S. Crude Oil Imports Originated From Five Countries in 2011
The amount of crude oil the United States imported from its top five foreign suppliers—Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria—increased slightly during 2011, even though total U.S. crude oil imports fell to their lowest level in 12 years. As a result, the crude oil from these five countries accounted for a bigger share of overall U.S. crude oil imports, nearly 69%, or just over 6.1 million barrels per day (bbl/d).
Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria have consistently been America's five largest crude oil suppliers, although their rankings varied from year to year. However, U.S. purchases of crude oil in 2011 increased from Canada and Saudi Arabia and declined from Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria, according to final trade data from EIA's February 2012 Company Level Imports report.
Combined crude oil imports from the five countries increased by less than 1% during 2011 to 6.1 million bbl/d. At the same time, total U.S. imports fell about 3%, or 0.3 million bbl/d, to 8.9 million bbl/d. That marked the lowest annual level of crude oil imports for the United States since 1999.
The combination of lower total U.S. crude oil imports and higher crude oil shipments from the top five foreign suppliers boosted their market share to about 69% of all U.S. crude oil imports during 2011, compared to 66% in 2010.
Highlights from the U.S. top crude oil importing countries in 2011 included:
Check out our latest Video, Market Analysis and Forecast for the Dollar, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, and the SP500
Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria have consistently been America's five largest crude oil suppliers, although their rankings varied from year to year. However, U.S. purchases of crude oil in 2011 increased from Canada and Saudi Arabia and declined from Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria, according to final trade data from EIA's February 2012 Company Level Imports report.
Combined crude oil imports from the five countries increased by less than 1% during 2011 to 6.1 million bbl/d. At the same time, total U.S. imports fell about 3%, or 0.3 million bbl/d, to 8.9 million bbl/d. That marked the lowest annual level of crude oil imports for the United States since 1999.
The combination of lower total U.S. crude oil imports and higher crude oil shipments from the top five foreign suppliers boosted their market share to about 69% of all U.S. crude oil imports during 2011, compared to 66% in 2010.
Highlights from the U.S. top crude oil importing countries in 2011 included:
- Canada. Crude oil imports averaged a record 2.2 million bbl/d, up 12% from the year before, and topped 2 million bbl/d for the first time because more oil is now being transported by rail.
- Saudi Arabia. Crude oil imports averaged 1.2 million bbl/d, up 10% from the year before, and were the highest level since 2008.
- Mexico. Crude oil imports of 1.1 million bbl/d were down 4.5% from the year before and the second lowest since 1995, reflecting the steady decline in Mexico's crude oil production and rising domestic fuel demand.
- Venezuela. Crude oil imports of 0.9 million bbl/d were down 5% from the year before and the lowest since 1992.
- Nigeria. Crude oil imports of 0.8 million bbl/d were down 22% from the year before and the lowest since 2002, due in part to civilian unrest that disrupted the country's crude oil production.
Check out our latest Video, Market Analysis and Forecast for the Dollar, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, and the SP500
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
OPEC Agrees to 30 Million Barrel Output Limit
OPEC decided to increase its production ceiling to 30 million barrels a day, the first change in three years, moving the group’s supply target nearer to current output. “We have an agreement to maintain the market in balance and we’re going to adjust the level of production of each country to open space for Libyan production,” Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting ended today in Vienna.
The group won’t set individual quotas for each member nation, a person with knowledge of OPEC policy said earlier today while the ministers were still in talks. The 30 million barrel a day limit is for all of OPEC’s 12 member nations, including Iraq and Libya, United Arab Emirates Oil Minister Mohamed al-Hamli said after the meeting ended.
OPEC is raising its quota to more closely match actual production while at the same time gauging the possibility of a slowing global economy and rising Libyan supply. Its last meeting in June broke up without consensus when six members including Iran and Venezuela opposed a formal push to pump more oil by Saudi Arabia and three.....Read the entire Bloomberg article.
The Currency War Big Picture Analysis for Gold, Silver & Stocks
The group won’t set individual quotas for each member nation, a person with knowledge of OPEC policy said earlier today while the ministers were still in talks. The 30 million barrel a day limit is for all of OPEC’s 12 member nations, including Iraq and Libya, United Arab Emirates Oil Minister Mohamed al-Hamli said after the meeting ended.
OPEC is raising its quota to more closely match actual production while at the same time gauging the possibility of a slowing global economy and rising Libyan supply. Its last meeting in June broke up without consensus when six members including Iran and Venezuela opposed a formal push to pump more oil by Saudi Arabia and three.....Read the entire Bloomberg article.
The Currency War Big Picture Analysis for Gold, Silver & Stocks
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Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Rigzone: Crude Oil Diplomacy to the Rescue? Cuban Drilling off Keys to Begin by Year End
For 51 years the U.S. has imposed an economic embargo against Cuba, severely crippling the island's economy for its effrontery in choosing a socialist path for development, a policy confirmed and intensified in the wake of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Now the unlikeliest of economic interests may be bringing the two countries closer together, oil.
Specifically, oil deposits in the Florida Straits between Key West and Cuba.
Spain's largest oil company, Repsol-YPF, has contracted the massive Italian made Scarabeo 9 semi submersible oil rig, currently en route from Singapore, to arrive in the Florida Straits by the end of the year after the end of hurricane season to begin exploring Cuba's offshore reserves. Repsol-YPF, which drilled Cuba's first onshore well in 2004, intends initially to drill six wells with the Scarabeo 9 rig.
Cuba, which currently produces a paltry roughly 50,000 barrels of oil per day from onshore sources, is understandably keen to begin exploiting its offshore reserves, which estimates place between 5-20 billion barrels of crude in a 43,000 square mile drilling area containing 59 maritime fields it has designated off its northern coast. While Fidel Castro's close ally, Venezuelan Hugo Chávez currently dispatches 120,000 bpd to Cuba on very favorable financing terms, the arrangement is heavily dependent on the friendship between octogenarian Castro and cancer stricken Chávez, hardly a recipe for permanency.
While Repsol-YPF is the first out of the gate, other concessionaires include Norway's Statoil, India's state owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Brazilian state oil company Petroleo Brasileiro, or Petrobras. Note the total absence of U.S. oil companies, that'll punish those pesky Commies.....Read the entire Rigzone article.
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Specifically, oil deposits in the Florida Straits between Key West and Cuba.
Spain's largest oil company, Repsol-YPF, has contracted the massive Italian made Scarabeo 9 semi submersible oil rig, currently en route from Singapore, to arrive in the Florida Straits by the end of the year after the end of hurricane season to begin exploring Cuba's offshore reserves. Repsol-YPF, which drilled Cuba's first onshore well in 2004, intends initially to drill six wells with the Scarabeo 9 rig.
Cuba, which currently produces a paltry roughly 50,000 barrels of oil per day from onshore sources, is understandably keen to begin exploiting its offshore reserves, which estimates place between 5-20 billion barrels of crude in a 43,000 square mile drilling area containing 59 maritime fields it has designated off its northern coast. While Fidel Castro's close ally, Venezuelan Hugo Chávez currently dispatches 120,000 bpd to Cuba on very favorable financing terms, the arrangement is heavily dependent on the friendship between octogenarian Castro and cancer stricken Chávez, hardly a recipe for permanency.
While Repsol-YPF is the first out of the gate, other concessionaires include Norway's Statoil, India's state owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Brazilian state oil company Petroleo Brasileiro, or Petrobras. Note the total absence of U.S. oil companies, that'll punish those pesky Commies.....Read the entire Rigzone article.
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Thursday, December 2, 2010
OPEC Expected to Keep Oil Production Quota Unchanged
OPEC will probably keep its production quota unchanged when it meets on Dec. 11 in Ecuador, ministers from Angola, Venezuela and Libya said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries considers oil at $80 to $85 a barrel a “comfortable price,” Angola’s Minister of Petroleum Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said yesterday. Crude traded around $86 a barrel in New York today. Venezuela’s energy minister Rafael Ramirez, who said he prefers a price level of $100 a barrel, told reporters in Doha today that the group will likely maintain its existing output target.
“The current environment is of some stability,” Angola’s Vasconcelos said in an interview. “The sentiment among members is for maintaining the production level.” Libya’s top oil official, Shokri Ghanem, said yesterday in Doha that the organization will seek stricter compliance with the current production target. OPEC, which produces about 40 percent of the world’s oil, hasn’t changed its formal limit since December 2008, when it announced record supply cuts and a quota of 24.845 million barrels a day.
The group’s adherence to that level has faltered as recovering demand and rising prices encourage members to exceed their individual allocations. Compliance among the 11 nations bound by quotas slipped to 51 percent in October, according to data from the group published on Nov. 11. Qatari Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said today he won’t attend the Dec. 11 gathering in Quito, Ecuador.
Angola’s Vasconcelos said he expects the country’s oil production to increase to 1.9 million barrels a day next year, close to its maximum capacity. Angola pumped an average of 1.73 million barrels a day in November, according to a Bloomberg survey of producers and analysts on Nov. 30. OPEC’s 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Iraq is exempt from the quota system.
Posted courtesy of Bloomberg News
Bloomberg reporter Grant Smith can be reached at gsmith52@bloomberg.net
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“The current environment is of some stability,” Angola’s Vasconcelos said in an interview. “The sentiment among members is for maintaining the production level.” Libya’s top oil official, Shokri Ghanem, said yesterday in Doha that the organization will seek stricter compliance with the current production target. OPEC, which produces about 40 percent of the world’s oil, hasn’t changed its formal limit since December 2008, when it announced record supply cuts and a quota of 24.845 million barrels a day.
The group’s adherence to that level has faltered as recovering demand and rising prices encourage members to exceed their individual allocations. Compliance among the 11 nations bound by quotas slipped to 51 percent in October, according to data from the group published on Nov. 11. Qatari Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said today he won’t attend the Dec. 11 gathering in Quito, Ecuador.
Angola’s Vasconcelos said he expects the country’s oil production to increase to 1.9 million barrels a day next year, close to its maximum capacity. Angola pumped an average of 1.73 million barrels a day in November, according to a Bloomberg survey of producers and analysts on Nov. 30. OPEC’s 12 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Iraq is exempt from the quota system.
Posted courtesy of Bloomberg News
Bloomberg reporter Grant Smith can be reached at gsmith52@bloomberg.net
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Saturday, October 9, 2010
Iraq Raises Crude Oil Reserve Estimates
Iraq raised its estimate of crude oil reserve, by +24%, to 143.1B barrels, making it the third largest reserve in the world, after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. More impressively, its oil reserve has surpassed that of Iran. The news is important to future oil supply. Indeed, Iraq signed several contracts with multinational oil companies to raise output and 2 rounds of auctions were completed last year. The government also announced plans to hold its first auction of contracts to develop natural gas on October 20. What we should be worrying about is that the security situation, political environment and legal framework in Iraq may make exploration difficult.
Courtesy Oil N' Gold
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Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Only a Handful of Investors Truly Understand
Think of it as light heavy oil, thick and gooey enough that it needs a pump to get out of the ground, but not so thick that it needs expensive heating to flow, hence the name cold flow. Now when I say that cold flow heavy oil is the most profitable, I mean that producers get more profit per barrel (the netback) than from other types of oil.
For every dollar producers put in the ground to get the oil, they get anywhere from $3-$7 back, sometimes up to $11, compared to $1-$3 for light oil. That's due to two factors:
1. The heavy oil is shallow so it doesn't cost much to get out, and
2. U.S. refineries love Canadian crude as Mexico and Venezuela heavy oil production declines, so heavy oil prices in Canada are now strong
And Canada has more of this oil than anyone else in the world. The real opportunity comes from the fact that right now, at this very moment, only a few junior and intermediate producers focus on cold flow heavy oil. That will soon change and as a result, investors will see a host of explosive new profit opportunities as this massive Canadian resource gets developed.
But make no mistake, the biggest, juiciest profits will come from those companies who are already in the cold flow heavy oil game. I've just prepared a new research report that examines three fast growing producers who stand to provide early investors with astounding returns as a result of this opportunity.
This new report, "North America's Heavy Oil and 3 Junior Heavy Oil Producers Set to Explode", spells out all the details, including:
* A detailed explanation of heavy oil and how big the market for it might be * How new technology will impact the market and create new opportunities for forward-thinking investors in the coming months * Why we're in the midst of extraordinary times for Canadian heavy oil producers and how long these good times might last * And most importantly, the names of three carefully selected junior/intermediate Canadian heavy oil producers perfectly positioned to take advantage of this unique market scenario.
You can claim your copy of this detailed report "North America's Heavy Oil and 3 Junior Heavy Oil Producers Set to Explode", immediately via email by clicking the link below.
While this report includes the type of research that might ordinarily cost hundreds of dollars, and includes three stocks with triple digit profit potential. But don't delay, as word begins to spread of the opportunity in cold flow heavy oil, the stocks revealed in this report will begin to move up sharply and I wouldn't want you to miss out.
Click here to order your copy of this in-depth report right now!
Share
For every dollar producers put in the ground to get the oil, they get anywhere from $3-$7 back, sometimes up to $11, compared to $1-$3 for light oil. That's due to two factors:
1. The heavy oil is shallow so it doesn't cost much to get out, and
2. U.S. refineries love Canadian crude as Mexico and Venezuela heavy oil production declines, so heavy oil prices in Canada are now strong
And Canada has more of this oil than anyone else in the world. The real opportunity comes from the fact that right now, at this very moment, only a few junior and intermediate producers focus on cold flow heavy oil. That will soon change and as a result, investors will see a host of explosive new profit opportunities as this massive Canadian resource gets developed.
But make no mistake, the biggest, juiciest profits will come from those companies who are already in the cold flow heavy oil game. I've just prepared a new research report that examines three fast growing producers who stand to provide early investors with astounding returns as a result of this opportunity.
This new report, "North America's Heavy Oil and 3 Junior Heavy Oil Producers Set to Explode", spells out all the details, including:
* A detailed explanation of heavy oil and how big the market for it might be * How new technology will impact the market and create new opportunities for forward-thinking investors in the coming months * Why we're in the midst of extraordinary times for Canadian heavy oil producers and how long these good times might last * And most importantly, the names of three carefully selected junior/intermediate Canadian heavy oil producers perfectly positioned to take advantage of this unique market scenario.
You can claim your copy of this detailed report "North America's Heavy Oil and 3 Junior Heavy Oil Producers Set to Explode", immediately via email by clicking the link below.
While this report includes the type of research that might ordinarily cost hundreds of dollars, and includes three stocks with triple digit profit potential. But don't delay, as word begins to spread of the opportunity in cold flow heavy oil, the stocks revealed in this report will begin to move up sharply and I wouldn't want you to miss out.
Click here to order your copy of this in-depth report right now!
Share
Labels:
Canada,
Crude Oil,
heavy crude,
Keith Schaefer,
production,
Venezuela
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Venezuela, Iran Ink Oil Invest Deals for South Pars, Dokobuki Field
Iran and Venezuela signed three oil deals Sunday during a Venezuelan presidential visit as the Islamic republic tries to mitigate the risk of new sanctions, Iranian news agencies said Monday. The accords were signed as Tehran is coming under increased international pressure over its nuclear program, including a threat to enforce sanctions against import products to Iran. The semi-official Mehr news agency said on Monday that Iran and Venezuela signed three memorandums of understanding in the energy sector in Tehran on Sunday as part of a visit to the country by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. They include two agreements of reciprocal investments in Iran and Venezuela each worth $760 million, according to Mehr and Shana, Iran's Oil Ministry news agency.....Read the entire article
Labels:
Hugo Chavez,
Iran,
Mehr News,
sanctions,
Venezuela
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Cuba Begins Expansion of JV Refinery with Venezuela
The Cuban authorities have begun the expansion of the storage capacity of a Cuban-Venezuelan refinery, local media reported Thursday. Cuban Basic Industry Minister Yadira Garcia hailed the advance of the work, including the installation of four tanks, each one with a capacity of 20,000 cubic meters, reports said. During a tour of these facilities Wednesday, Garcia said expanding the storage capacity of the refinery is "strategic" work.....Complete Story
Labels:
Crude Oil,
Cuba,
Stochastics,
Venezuela,
Yadira Garcia
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Venezuela to Borrow to Pay Oil Debts
Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez' announcement that the state will borrow more money to help pay off national oil company debts follows the disclosure by President Hugo Chavez of a letter urging Moscow to cooperate in selling oil at $100 a barrel.
State petroleum company Petroleos de Venezuela has run up billions of dollars in debts to contractors since global oil prices began tumbling nearly a year ago. Although denying that PDVSA had cash-flow problems.....Complete Story
State petroleum company Petroleos de Venezuela has run up billions of dollars in debts to contractors since global oil prices began tumbling nearly a year ago. Although denying that PDVSA had cash-flow problems.....Complete Story
Labels:
Crude Oil,
debt,
Moscow,
Rafael Ramirez,
Venezuela
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Oil and Gas Rise on Dollar Weakness, OPEC Wants $80 a Barrel
"Oil, Gasoline Rise as Dollar Drop Boosts Appeal of Commodities"
Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel and gasoline climbed for the first time in five days as a weaker dollar bolstered the appeal of commodity futures as an alternative investment. Oil climbed as the U.S. currency slipped the most in a month against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve will temper expectations for an interest rate increase this year. An Energy Department report tomorrow is forecast to show that U.S. crude oil supplies fell.....Complete Story
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"OPEC Would Like Oil at $80 a Barrel for Investments"
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would like oil to reach a price level of $80 a barrel so that most investments in the industry can go ahead, OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said Tuesday. "We would like to reach the $80 per barrel, so that investment could be met," he said during a press conference after meeting with European Union officials. He said the current level of between $60 a barrel.....Complete Story
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
"Japan May End $1.5 Billion Venezuela Loan on Seizures"
Japan may cancel a planned $1.5 billion loan for Venezuela’s El Palito and Puerto La Cruz oil refineries after the South American nation seized Japanese company assets, said a person familiar with the situation. The Japan Bank for International Cooperation, or JBIC, is reviewing loans for the upgrades after Venezuela took over Japanese iron and chemicals assets and fell behind on payments to oil service contractors, according to the person, who declined to be identified because the review isn’t public.....Complete Story
A Good Trading Education = a Good Trader = Good Profits….Watch INO TV
Labels:
Crude Oil,
inventories,
Japan,
Natural Gas,
OPEC,
Venezuela
Friday, May 22, 2009
Crude Oil Rises As Dollar Continues To Show Weakness
"Crude Oil Rises as Dollar Drops Against Euro, Equities Gain"
Crude oil rose as the dollar fell to a four month low against the euro and the U.S. stocks increased for the first time in four days. Oil rose as much as 1.5 percent in New York after the dollar dipped against major currencies on speculation the U.S. may lose its AAA credit rating. Equities gained as unexpected profit at Sears Holdings Corp. overshadowed concern the government faces higher interest rates to finance the rescue of the financial industry......Complete Story
USO & Crude Oil On The Move Click Here
"Oil Market Turns to OPEC Advantage, But Pitfalls Abound"
Global oil markets have turned in OPEC's favor after months of drilling a hole in the cartel's coffers, but internal wrangling in the producer group could still cap recent oil price gains. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' deep production cuts over the past five months are beginning to whittle down a mountain of excess supply. World crude demand appears to be stabilizing and will get a top up with the start of the.....Complete Story
Is the Dollar in Trouble? Click Here
"Venezuela Oil Keeps Luring Bidders in Bets Chavez Isn’t Forever"
Chevron Corp. and Total SA are pursuing new Venezuelan oil projects after President Hugo Chavez tore up past agreements, seized assets of contractors and expelled producers that wouldn’t accept new terms. The strategy, producers and analysts say, is to tap crude reserves that Chavez touts as the world’s largest. Decisions to push ahead under a regime whose leader vows to “bury capitalism” are bets that the companies can buy enough time to outlast Chavez, said Peter Zeihan, a vice president at Stratfor, a geopolitical.....Complete Story
Monday, April 6, 2009
Crude Oil Declines As Stocks Fall
"Crude Oil Falls for a Second Day as U.S. Equities Decline"
Crude oil fell for a second day in New York as U.S. stocks declined on speculation that bank loan losses will increase. Oil fell as much as 4.2 percent after Mike Mayo, analyst at Calyon Securities, advised selling bank shares and International Business Machines Corp.’s purchase of Sun....Complete Story
"Venezuela to Develop Iran's Oil Fields"
Venezuela would participate in developing Iran's oil fields, according to a report released by Iran's Press TV website on Sunday. Venezuelan state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to develop "17 small oil fields in Iran," the report said....omplete Story
"Oil Prices Slide In Line With Stock Markets"
Oil prices dropped more than a dollar on Monday after earlier bouncing above 54 dollars per barrel in London, as traders tracked fresh falls on global stock markets.
In London trade on Monday, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in May dived 1.16....Complete Story
Thursday, March 26, 2009
The Battle Insues, Obama and Oil Industry
"Oil, Gasoline Rise as Gains for Equities Signal Strengthening Fuel Demand"
Crude oil rose to the highest in almost four months and gasoline gained as an advancing U.S. stock market signaled that fuel demand will increase....Complete Story
"Obama Revives Battle with Oil Industry"
The Obama administration's push to raise taxes on the oil industry is reigniting a battle the industry fought and won last year....Complete Story
"Petrobras May Compete For Iraqi Oil Deal"
Petrobras could join a U.S. firm and two European companies in competing for a contract to develop Iraq's Nahr Bin Umar oil field....Complete Story
"US Company Halts More Oil Rigs In Venezuela"
U.S oil driller Helmerich & Payne said Wednesday it is continuing to halt operations in Venezuela due to delayed payments from Venezuela's state oil company....Complete Story
Labels:
Crude Oil,
Helmerich Payne,
Iraq,
Petrobras,
RSI,
Stochastics,
Venezuela
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
NYMEX Crude Up On Surprise EIA Draw, China Stimulus Boost
"NYMEX-Crude up on surprise EIA draw, China, OPEC"
U.S. crude futures held gains above $3 late Wednesday morning, after government data showed a surprise drawdown in domestic crude supplies last week, not the
increase forecast by analysts....Complete Story
"Venezuela to Cut Oil Contracts As Prices Fall"
Venezuela said it will seek to renegotiate contracts with oil-service companies, with PDVSA planning to cut its spending on oil-service contractors by 40%....Complete Story
"Ecuador Will Not Confiscate Perenco's Oil Fields Over Tax Debt"
Ecuadorean Oil Minister Derlis Palacios said Wednesday that the country will not seize the oil fields of French company Perenco over debts....Complete Story
"Oil Gains a Second Day on Speculation China Will Boost Stimulus Spending"
Crude oil rose for a second day on speculation China will broaden efforts to boost economic growth, bolstering fuel demand in the world’s third largest economy....Complete Story
"Exxon Seen Using $31.4 Billion Cash Hoard for Field Stakes, Not Takeovers"
Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest oil company, will probably tap its $31.4 billion mountain of cash to buy stakes in offshore fields from state oil companies rather than mounting takeover bids for major rivals....Complete Story
Friday, January 30, 2009
Crude Oil Industry Headline News
"Total in Fresh Talks with Venezuela on Expanding Ops"
Total is in fresh talks with the Venezuela government about expanding its operations in the South American nation....Complete Story
"Exxon, Chevron Top Analyst Earnings Estimates on Refining Gains"
Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., the biggest U.S. oil companies, exceeded analyst earnings estimates as increased fourth quarter refining profits blunted the impact of a record drop in crude prices....Complete Story
"Mexico's President Meets with Top Oil Cos, Talks Energy Reform"
Mexican President Felipe Calderon met with top executives from some of the world's largest oil companies at the World Economic Forum in Davos....Complete Story
"Nigerian Militants to End Truce in Oil-Rich Delta"
Nigeria's main militant group said on Friday it was calling off a ceasefire after a military strike on one of its camps in the Niger Delta, warning of a "sweeping assault" on the oil industry....Complete Story
"California Rejects Offshore Oil Deal"
California's Land Commission said no to an offshore oil drilling deal saying it would open the door for further offshore development. Environmental groups and the Plains Exploration and Production company....Complete Story
Labels:
Chevron,
Crude Oil,
Davos,
deepwater exploration Mexico,
Exxon,
Felipe Calderon,
Nigerian,
Venezuela
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