Mid Week Market Summary - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold

November crude oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 95.07 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 85.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 94.12. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 95.07. First support is is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 90.75. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 85.77.

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November natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last week's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the late August high crossing at 4.163 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the late summer trading range. If November extends the decline off last week's high, July's low crossing at 3.786 is the next downside target. Closes below July's low crossing at 3.786 would confirm a downside breakout of the late summer trading range. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.100. Second resistance is the late August high crossing at 4.163. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.812. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.786.

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December gold closed lower on Wednesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the December 2013 low crossing at 1185.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1247.90 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1228.00. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1247.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1208.80. Second support is the December 2013 low crossing at 1185.00.

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Commodities Market Recap and this Weeks Stops and Trading Numbers....Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Coffee, Sugar and More!

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets......


Crude oil futures are trading below their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average stating that the trend is mixed as I am currently sitting on the sidelines as there is no trend currently. The fundamentals are bearish in oil as stock piles are at 85 year highs as prices peaked at 104 last month now looking at support between 97-98 dollars a barrel as I think lower prices are ahead however I am not currently participating in this market so wait for better chart structure to develop.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: OK

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Natural Gas Futures. I had been recommending a long position in the June natural gas as prices broke down yesterday hitting a 10 day low and stopping us out of the market for a loss so sit on the sidelines and wait for better chart structure to develop. This was a disappointing trade as I thought prices were going to break above 5.00 but that did not happen so it’s time to lick your wounds and find a better trend.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday at 1,309 while going out today around 1,290 down by about $20 for the trading week as the Ukrainian situation has stalled sending gold prices back down into the recent trading range. Gold futures are trading below their 20 but right at their 100 day moving average as prices have been consolidating in the last 5 weeks trading in a $30 range as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better chart pattern to develop but if you are looking to get into this market on the long side I would buy at today’s prices placing my stop at the 10 day low of 1,365 risking around $2,500 per contract and if you’re looking to get short this market I would sell at today’s price while putting my stop loss at 1,310 risking around $2,000 as the chart structure is relatively tight at the current time. Gold prices rallied from 1,180 all the way up near $1,400 an ounce 2 months ago so this is basically the 50% retracement and I think you will see a consolidation for quite some time so keep a close eye on this chart as it appears to me that a breakout is looming.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Is it Time to Admit That Gold Peaked in 2011?

Silver futures in New York continued their bearish trend this week settling last Friday at 19.55 finishing lower by about $.45 for the trading week as I still think there’s a possibility that a spike bottom occurred in last Fridays trade as $19 has been very difficult to break on the downside. Silver futures have come all the way from slightly above $22 in late February all the way down to today’s level and from $35 in 2013 so this is been a bear market for well over 1 year as there seems to be a lack of interest, however eventually silver will turn around and join the rest of commodities higher but at this point there’s just very little interest. Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is lower and as I’ve talked about many times before if you have deep pockets and you’re a longer-term investor I think prices down at these levels are relatively cheap and if prices went lower I would continue to dollar cost average as there is real demand for silver.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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Coffee futures in the July contract were sharply lower this week finishing down over 1150 points this Friday afternoon to close around 184.00 a pound and I’ve been recommending a long position in coffee for quite some time as we got stopped out at the 194 level today which was the 2 week low so sit on the sidelines and wait for another trend to develop as prices could possibly retest the recent lows of around 170. Coffee futures are trading below their 20 day and above their 100 day moving average as the trend is sideways to lower currently so look for another market that is in a stronger trend but keep a close eye on this market as I do think prices are limited to the downside and I would be an interested buyer around the 165 level which was hit in early April. Coffee prices broke above to new contract highs 3 weeks ago but prices have just petered out here in recent weeks as crop estimates start to come out in the next several weeks.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Sugar futures finished the week down around 20 points trading in nonvolatile action as prices are testing support at 17.07 settling this Friday at 17.20 and if that level is broken then I would place my stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 18.03 risking around 100 points or $1,100 dollars per contract. The chart structure is excellent at the current time as the trend is lower as prices are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving averages as prices have been in a 100 point trading range over the last month so keep a close eye on the 17 level for a possible short as the soft commodities have turned negative recently. TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING

Why Are So Many Boomers Working Longer?

When Do You Add To Your Winning Trade? This has always been a very interesting question because it can create a situation of going from rags to riches or from riches to rags in a very short amount of time. Many times I see traders abuse pyramiding or adding to positions with utter lack of any type of money management system in place and letting it ride which usually ends up in a complete wipeout of capital and sometimes even worse.

Commodity prices can move very quickly with large gains or loses like we experienced in the 2008 crash of stock and commodity prices, so you always have to use stops and not fall in love or marry a position. In my opinion the answer to this question is add only once to the trade if that position has made you at least 2%-3% of your account balance while still having stop losses on all positions that equal 2% loss at a maximum risk. Remember your stop loses will be different on both positions because of the fact that you entered those trades at a different date and price.

There are many different theories about how long does a meaningful consolidation have to last before you enter a trade on the breakout to the up or downside? In my opinion I always want to see a consolidation that lasts at least 8 or more weeks before I would consider entering. The reason that I want a longer consolidation is to try and avoid a bunch of false breakouts such as a 10 or 15 day consolidations which happen all the time, so I am trying to put the odds in my favor by trading the breakout of at least 8 weeks or more and the longer such as a 11 or 13 week consolidation the better. At this present time cocoa is in a major consolidation.

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Telephone Stocks Hang Up and Autos Run Us Over as Markets Head Lower. Here's our Summary - Gold, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500 and Coffee

The DOW closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends the decline off January's high. Today's sell off was triggered by a sharp decline in telephone stocks, disappointment over auto sales by Ford and General Motors and reports that Jos. A. Bank Clothiers will not enter into takeover talks.

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The SP500 closed sharply lower [March contract] on Monday and below the 2012-2013 uptrend line crossing near 1744.00 confirming that am intermediate trend change is taking place. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If March extends this year's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 25% retracement level of 2012's rally crossing at 1692.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1811.38 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1791.33. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1811.38. First support is today's low crossing at 1735.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of 2012's rally crossing at 1692.03.


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Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. Today's low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.00 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 99.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 98.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 99.58. First support is today's low crossing at 96.26. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.06.

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Natural gas [March contract] closed lower on Monday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a pause in the rally is possible or that a short term top has been posted. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.528 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 6.108 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.486. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 6.108. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.843. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.528.

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Gold closed higher [April contract] on Monday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If April extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1215.30 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 1306.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1280.10. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 1306.20. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1230.80. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1215.30.

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Coffee closed sharply higher on Monday [March contract] as it extends this rally off November's low. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends the rally off November's low, last July's high crossing at 13.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 11.87 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

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Commodities Close the Week on a High Note - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Corn and Coffee

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off last August's high. Today's mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the June 2013 low crossing at 90.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.76 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 95.12. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.76. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 91.24. Second support is the June 2013 low crossing at 90.05.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 3.897 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.328 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.328. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.430. First support is today's low crossing at 3.953. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 3.897.

Gold closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1266.70 is the next upside target. If April renews the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 1179.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1249.00. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1266.70. First support is December's low crossing at 1182.30. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1179.40.

Corn closed sharply higher on Friday following today's USDA report. The USDA caught the trade leaning the wrong way after releasing a lower than expected corn crop estimate for 2013's crop production and lower than expected ending stocks. The USDA estimated the 2013 corn crop at 13.925 billion bushels. The USDA juggled its harvested acreage and yields, putting the average for the crop nationwide at 158.8 bpa, which was down 1.6 bpa from its last estimate, though acreage went up 436,000. The USDA came in with a lower than expected figure on Dec. 1st corn inventories, which suggests feed usage in the first quarter of the marketing year was good despite the late harvest. That raised the total forecast for feeding during the marketing year by100 million bushels.

The USDA also increased its forecasted usage for ethanol by 50 million bushels due to strong demand. The increase usage from ethanol was offset by a 50 million bushel decline in other industrial usage, leaving ending stocks at 1.631 billion. Today's key reversal up along with the close above the previous reaction high crossing at 4.30 confirmed that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral signaling additional strength is possible near term. Closes above December's high crossing at 4.40 3/4 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.36. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.40 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.06 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.99 3/4.

Coffee closed higher on Friday and the high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 12.40 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 11.02 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Coffee Market Summary for Monday January 6th

Crude oil closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off December's high. Today's low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If February extends last week's decline, November's low crossing at 92.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.84 are needed to temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.84. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 100.75. First support is today's low crossing at 93.20. Second support is November's low crossing at 92.10.

Natural gas closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends last week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 4.158 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.388 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.388. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.532. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.206. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 4.158.

Gold closed slightly higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at 1267.50 is the next upside target. If February renews the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 1179.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1247.70. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1267.50. First support is December's low crossing at 1181.40. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1179.40.

Coffee closed sharply higher on Monday renewing the rally off November's low. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 12.40 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 11.02 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

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Crude Oil Closes Sharply Lower to Start 2014

Crude oil bulls got slaughtered right out of the gate to get 2014 started as crude oil closes sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 98.23 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that additional weakness is likely. If February extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 92.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 98.77 are needed to temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 98.77. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 100.75. First support is today's low crossing at 95.34. Second support is November's low crossing at 92.10.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's sharp decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends Tuesday's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 4.158 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.403 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.403. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.532. First support is today's low crossing at 4.213. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 4.158.

Gold closed higher on Thursday due to a short covering rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1224.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If February extends the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 1179.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1224.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1267.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1181.40. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1179.40.

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Commodity Markets Summary for Thursday December 19th

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday renewing the rally off November's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 99.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.19 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 99.17. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 99.87. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.19. Second support is November's low crossing at 91.77.

Natural gas closed sharply higher on Thursday renewing the rally off November's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.487 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.104 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.471. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.487. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.172. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.104.

The March S&P 500 closed lower due to light profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If March renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 1738.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1806.10. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1755.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1738.70.

Gold closed lower on Thursday renewing the decline off August's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February renews the decline off August high, June's low crossing at 1187.90 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 1267.50 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1267.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1294.70. First support is today's low crossing at 1190.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 1187.90.

COT Fund fav coffee closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 11.04 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

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Mid Week Market Summary for Wednesday December 11th

The S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March renews this year's rally into uncharted territory upside targets will be hard to project. Multiple closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 1774.80 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1805.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1774.80. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1769.00.

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 99.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.16 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 98.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 99.87. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.16. Second support is November's low crossing at 91.77.


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Natural gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.307 as it extends the rally off November's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.487 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.902 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.340. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.487. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.082. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.902.

Gold closed lower as it consolidated some of on Tuesday rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1250.50. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends Tuesday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1294.70 is the next upside target. If February renews the decline off August' high, June's low crossing at 1187.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1267.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1294.70. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1210.10. Second support is June's low crossing at 1187.90.

Silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last Wednesday's low. The low range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 20.805 is the next upside target. If January renews the decline off October's high, June's low crossing at 18.615 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 20.430. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 20.805. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 18.900. Second support is June's low crossing at 18.615.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off November's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 79.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 81.73. First support is today's low crossing at 79.87. Second support is October's low crossing at 79.35.

The Japanese Yen closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at .9640 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at .9857 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at .9845. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at .9857. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at .9678. Second support is weekly support crossing at .9640.

Coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 11.29 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. If March renews last week's decline, November's low crossing at 10.41 is the next downside target.

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The Market You Trade Is Not Random

The use of cycles is perhaps the most misunderstood areas of technical analysis. And is widely miss used within automated trading systems. This is because there are a wide variety of approaches ranging from magnetic, to astrology to time based cycles.

The purpose of this tutorial on cycle analysis and implementation into automated trading systems is to present a logical perspective on what cycles and how they enhance your technical analysis studies.

Originally I was attracted to cycle analysis back in 2001. Back then, there was very little information about cycle analysis and even less on how to identify them within financial instruments. Cycles can be somewhat measured using conventional indicators such as RSI, stochastics and moving averages.

But, better yet is a custom cycle analyzer indicator I created to make cycle identification and implementation automatic within my trading strategies and my fully automated trading system.

Read the entire article > "Here is how the moving average can help spot cycles"


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Mid Week Market Commentary - Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold for Tuesday Evening December 3rd

Crude oil closed sharply higher on Tuesday and above the reaction high crossing at 95.63 confirming that a low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January extends the rebound off last week's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 97.96 is the next upside target. If January renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 91.18 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 96.19. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 97.96. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 91.77. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 91.18.

Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.045 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.731 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.045. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 4.092. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.838. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.731.

Gold closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is still possible near term. If February extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at 1187.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1266.60 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1243.60. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1266.60. First support is today's low crossing at 1214.60. Second support is June's low crossing at 1187.90.

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Mid Week COT Market Summary for Thursday November 14th

December Nymex crude oil Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 91.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.14 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 94.18. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.14. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 92.86. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 91.54.

December Henry natural gas trades lower as it consolidates some of the rally off last Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.623 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.178 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.623. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.835. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.379. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.178.

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December gold was higher due to short covering on Wednesday night as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1251.00 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1316.40 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1294.80. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1316.40. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1275.80. Second support is October's low crossing at 1251.00.

The December U.S. Dollar traded higher in Wednesday evenings trading but remains below the 38% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 81.41. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 82.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 81.58. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October decline crossing at 82.14. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.96. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.26.

How much lower can COT favorite Coffee go? December coffee closed down 295 points at 102.85 cents on Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The coffee bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

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Mid Week Market Summary - Gold, Dollar, Crude Oil , Natural Gas and Coffee

December Nymex crude oil closed up $1.49 at $94.85 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering in a bear market. Crude oil bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. A nine week old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart.

December natural gas closed up 3.3 cents at $3.499 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering after hitting a contract low Tuesday. There was follow through buying today and a bullish “key reversal” up on the daily bar chart was confirmed. That is an early clue that a market bottom is in place for natural gas.

The December U.S. dollar index closed down 0.227 at 80.560 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The greenback bears have the overall near term technical advantage. However, it still appears a near term market low is in place.

December gold futures closed up $8.90 an ounce at $1,317.00. Prices closed near mid-range in more quiet trading. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the gold market today as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. The gold market bulls and bears are still on a level near term technical playing field.

And the world just wouldn't be right if we didn't include our favorite trade for 2013-14....coffee. December coffee closed down 230 points at 101.15 cents today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another contract low. The coffee bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. However, this market is now way oversold on a short term technical basis, and due for at least a good corrective bounce very soon.


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COT Week Ending Market Summary - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500 nad Gold

October crude oil closed lower on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 106.39 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 106.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.568 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.568. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The December S&P 500 closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1684.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1648.00 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1683.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1684.40. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1657.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1648.00.

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October gold closed sharply lower on Friday extending the decline off August's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1380.40 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1380.40. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1432.90. First support is today's low crossing at 1304.60. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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COT Market Summary for Thursday Sept. 12th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold, Coffee

October crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.54 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.54. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.556 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.556. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The December S&P 500 closed lower due to light profit taking on Thursday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1684.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1646.44 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1683.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1684.40. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1646.44. Second support is August's low crossing at 1621.00.

Day Trading History of 16 Major Candlestick Patterns
 
October gold closed sharply lower on Thursday extending the decline off August's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1382.20 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1382.20. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1432.90. First support is today's low crossing at 1322.40. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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December coffee closed slightly lower on Thursday but remains above the 20 day moving average. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends Wednesday's rally, August's high crossing at 12.70 is the next upside target. If December renews this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target.

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COT Market Summary for Wednesday Sept.11th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold and Coffee

October crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.45 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.45. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.543 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.543. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The December S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1684.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1646.12 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1680.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1684.40. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1646.12. Second support is August's low crossing at 1621.00.

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October gold closed lower on Wednesday extending yesterday's breakout below the 20 day moving average. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1351.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1390.00 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1351.60. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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And we just can't help ourselves.....December coffee closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 118.88 confirming that a low has been posted. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends today's rally, August's high crossing at 12.70 is the next upside target.

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Upside Reversal in Crude Oil Gives the Bulls Momentum

October crude oil posted an upside reversal on Tuesday ending a two day decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.34 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.34. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday and tested the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.457 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.457. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The September S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1611.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1659.67 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1649.80. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1659.67. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1625.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1611.47.

Day Trading History of 16 Major Candlestick Patterns

October gold closed higher on Tuesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1361.90 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 1489.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1396.10. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1361.90.

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Wednesdays market summary and a U.S. response. Wait for it, wait for it.

It's no surprise that yesterday's news that the U.S. was going to have a military response to Syria spooked the markets and sent the indices to their biggest loss in some time. Today, it looks like the markets are digested what they went through yesterday.

October crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this summer's rally. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.04. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

October Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.421 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.628. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.421. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

October gold closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, May's high crossing at 1489.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1346.80 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1383.50. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1346.80.

The September Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 81.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 80.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.99. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 82.61. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.77. Second support is June's low crossing at 80.61.

And last but not least.....September coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this summer's decline. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September renews this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 118.11 would confirm that a low has been posted.

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Crude Oil Shakes off the Nasdaq Blues and Ballmer News to Finish Higher

October crude oil closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 102.22 would confirm that a double top has been posted. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is the reaction low crossing at 102.22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's key reversal up. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1676.40 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1661.17. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1676.40. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1631.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45.

October gold closed higher on Friday renewing the rally off June's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 1424.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1333.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1399.40. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1424.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1333.70. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 1272.10.

September Henry natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.473 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.562. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.473. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.129.

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Markets Drop for a Fourth Day on Bond Price and Bank Worries

The September S&P 500 closed lower on Monday and below the 38% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1647.42 as it extended this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1683.59 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1683.49. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1705.00. First support is today's low crossing at 1646.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45.

September crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 102.22 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is the reaction low crossing at 102.22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

October gold closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 1424.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1323.60 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1382.40. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1424.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1323.60. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 1272.10.

September Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.416 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends today's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.327 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.501. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.327. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.129.

And of course we can't leave out coffee anymore. September coffee closed lower on Monday and the low range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 126.50 is the next upside target.

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Crude oil bulls hold their ground as the markets fall around them

September crude oil closed higher on Thursday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 102.22 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 102.22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

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The September S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off last week's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1647.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1688.79 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1688.79. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1705.00. First support is today's low crossing at 1656.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1647.42.

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September Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last week's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.448 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.448. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.478. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.129. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.000.

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October gold closed sharply higher on Thursday renewing the rally off June's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 1424.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1315.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1369.20. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1424.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1315.40. Second resistance is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1272.10.

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