FREE workshop....Big Profits from Breakouts & Mega Trends

We are excited to announce that this Thursday our friends Todd and Roger will be putting on a New FREE LIVE interactive trading workshop, where we’ll teach you how to incorporate Bollinger Bands and Price Envelopes into your trading for much bigger gains which will help you maximize the percentage of winning trades you take while decreasing your losses significantly.

They have decided to call this workshop "Big Profits from Breakouts and Mega Trends". You’ll also learn an ETF trading model that generated Todd over 963% return in just over 6 years.

Click here to REGISTER Thursday June 15th at 4:30 ET

It’s FREE to attend and it’s going to be actionable trading strategies you can start using the very next day!

Here’s just a few of the actionable strategies you’re going to learn:

* How To Use Bollinger Bands and Price Envelopes for Profitable Breakouts

* How Professional Traders Use Trailing Stops to Ride Massive Trends

* The Rules to the Turtles Trend Following System That Made Billions Over the Past Decade

* How to avoid Massive Losing Periods That Come With Buy and Hold

* How to Take Advantage of Increased Volatility So You Can Lock in Profits with Trailing Stops

* You’ll be Introduced to an ETF Trading Model That Generated Over 963% Return In Just Over 6 Years!

PLUS…Learn a lot more and get ALL your questions answered LIVE!

Click Here to REGISTER: Thursday June 15th at 4:30 ET

I couldn’t be more excited to have Todd and Roger show you firsthand how an ex hedge-fund manager with tremendous success and experience trades the markets.

Have a profitable day we hope to see you there!

 
See you in the markets,
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

P.S. I recommend you attend this class if you're interested in learning trading strategies you can incorporate into your trading right away. We anticipate this workshop will be fill up very quickly so get your reserved seat asap.

New Video: John Carter's Proven Strategies for Q4 and 2016

 

There are very few traders that have as unique of a story as our friend and trading partner John Carter. From watching his dad place his trades as "hand draws" to becoming a successful trader himself. It wasn't an easy path he took.

There have been lots of bumps, direction changes, and heartbreak along the way. But through time John has learned that if you want to have a 6 figure trading account like his, options are your best way to get there.

Today John is sharing with us his latest free video that will give us an insight into how he will be using options to close out the year and moving forward into 2016.

Watch > John's Proven Strategies for Q4 and 2016

In this FREE video from John will give you two proven strategies he's using in 2016 that are sure to work for you. Now, when a trader like John Carter says "hey, here are my two best strategies" you'd be nuts not to at least hear him out and see if it can be applied to what you are doing.

So click here for his best two 2016 strategies

And here's what else he's showing you in this free video:

  *  His two proven Strategies John used to make 30k last week!

  *  How to make and find successful trades from your phone

  *  How to Successfully Trade 2016 Economic Disasters

  *  How to find trades that won't run your stops

John even shows you exactly what he's currently trading. This is my favorite part.....just watch!

See you in the markets putting this to work!
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader



While you are here get John's latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Commodities Market Recap and this Weeks Stops and Trading Numbers....Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Coffee, Sugar and More!

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets......


Crude oil futures are trading below their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average stating that the trend is mixed as I am currently sitting on the sidelines as there is no trend currently. The fundamentals are bearish in oil as stock piles are at 85 year highs as prices peaked at 104 last month now looking at support between 97-98 dollars a barrel as I think lower prices are ahead however I am not currently participating in this market so wait for better chart structure to develop.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: OK

Get our "Advanced Crude Oil Study – 15 Minute Range"

Natural Gas Futures. I had been recommending a long position in the June natural gas as prices broke down yesterday hitting a 10 day low and stopping us out of the market for a loss so sit on the sidelines and wait for better chart structure to develop. This was a disappointing trade as I thought prices were going to break above 5.00 but that did not happen so it’s time to lick your wounds and find a better trend.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday at 1,309 while going out today around 1,290 down by about $20 for the trading week as the Ukrainian situation has stalled sending gold prices back down into the recent trading range. Gold futures are trading below their 20 but right at their 100 day moving average as prices have been consolidating in the last 5 weeks trading in a $30 range as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better chart pattern to develop but if you are looking to get into this market on the long side I would buy at today’s prices placing my stop at the 10 day low of 1,365 risking around $2,500 per contract and if you’re looking to get short this market I would sell at today’s price while putting my stop loss at 1,310 risking around $2,000 as the chart structure is relatively tight at the current time. Gold prices rallied from 1,180 all the way up near $1,400 an ounce 2 months ago so this is basically the 50% retracement and I think you will see a consolidation for quite some time so keep a close eye on this chart as it appears to me that a breakout is looming.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Is it Time to Admit That Gold Peaked in 2011?

Silver futures in New York continued their bearish trend this week settling last Friday at 19.55 finishing lower by about $.45 for the trading week as I still think there’s a possibility that a spike bottom occurred in last Fridays trade as $19 has been very difficult to break on the downside. Silver futures have come all the way from slightly above $22 in late February all the way down to today’s level and from $35 in 2013 so this is been a bear market for well over 1 year as there seems to be a lack of interest, however eventually silver will turn around and join the rest of commodities higher but at this point there’s just very little interest. Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is lower and as I’ve talked about many times before if you have deep pockets and you’re a longer-term investor I think prices down at these levels are relatively cheap and if prices went lower I would continue to dollar cost average as there is real demand for silver.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Here's our Critical Line in the Sand for Silver

Coffee futures in the July contract were sharply lower this week finishing down over 1150 points this Friday afternoon to close around 184.00 a pound and I’ve been recommending a long position in coffee for quite some time as we got stopped out at the 194 level today which was the 2 week low so sit on the sidelines and wait for another trend to develop as prices could possibly retest the recent lows of around 170. Coffee futures are trading below their 20 day and above their 100 day moving average as the trend is sideways to lower currently so look for another market that is in a stronger trend but keep a close eye on this market as I do think prices are limited to the downside and I would be an interested buyer around the 165 level which was hit in early April. Coffee prices broke above to new contract highs 3 weeks ago but prices have just petered out here in recent weeks as crop estimates start to come out in the next several weeks.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Check out our Coffee Traders Facebook page

Sugar futures finished the week down around 20 points trading in nonvolatile action as prices are testing support at 17.07 settling this Friday at 17.20 and if that level is broken then I would place my stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 18.03 risking around 100 points or $1,100 dollars per contract. The chart structure is excellent at the current time as the trend is lower as prices are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving averages as prices have been in a 100 point trading range over the last month so keep a close eye on the 17 level for a possible short as the soft commodities have turned negative recently. TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING

Why Are So Many Boomers Working Longer?

When Do You Add To Your Winning Trade? This has always been a very interesting question because it can create a situation of going from rags to riches or from riches to rags in a very short amount of time. Many times I see traders abuse pyramiding or adding to positions with utter lack of any type of money management system in place and letting it ride which usually ends up in a complete wipeout of capital and sometimes even worse.

Commodity prices can move very quickly with large gains or loses like we experienced in the 2008 crash of stock and commodity prices, so you always have to use stops and not fall in love or marry a position. In my opinion the answer to this question is add only once to the trade if that position has made you at least 2%-3% of your account balance while still having stop losses on all positions that equal 2% loss at a maximum risk. Remember your stop loses will be different on both positions because of the fact that you entered those trades at a different date and price.

There are many different theories about how long does a meaningful consolidation have to last before you enter a trade on the breakout to the up or downside? In my opinion I always want to see a consolidation that lasts at least 8 or more weeks before I would consider entering. The reason that I want a longer consolidation is to try and avoid a bunch of false breakouts such as a 10 or 15 day consolidations which happen all the time, so I am trying to put the odds in my favor by trading the breakout of at least 8 weeks or more and the longer such as a 11 or 13 week consolidation the better. At this present time cocoa is in a major consolidation.

Want more call for this weeks commodity markets? Orange Juice, Wheat, Cotton, Cattle....Just Click Here!


Sign up for one of our Free Trading Webinars....Just Click Here!

Is this a "Bearish Outside Reversal" in Natural Gas?

June Natural Gas (NG.M14.E) opened sharply higher in Sunday evenings session, but since the open prices plummeted to a 5 day low. The sell off confirmed a bearish outside reversal ahead of today's U.S. session. June Natural Gas futures remain under pressure from last week's EIA storage report that showed a larger than expected supply build of 82 bcf. Recent weather forecasts have been calling for warmer temperatures across the country which could limit the size of upcoming supply injections.

In recent weeks, we have been in a sideways trend in the June Natural Gas Market as the market decides on which direction it is headed next. The technical analysis in Natural Gas points to bearish in the near term, making way for a potential swing trading opportunity.

In today's trading session, I will be looking to sell June Natural Gas futures at 4.660, or a breach of the 20 Day Moving Average. This breach would confirm the outside reversal in today’s trading session. My first downside target would be 4.500, a recent area of support in the market, at which point I would roll stops to break even. If the 4.500 are is hit, then I would look at 4.380 as my next target, which would be support from the long term trendline. To mitigate risk on the trade, stop loss orders should be placed just above today’s trading range and rolled behind the trade accordingly.

See you in the market!
 Posted courtesy of James Leeney and our trading partners at INO.com



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Commodities Market Recap and this Weeks Stops and Trading Numbers

Today our trading partner Michael Seery gives our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.....

Crude oil futures in the June contract finished up around $.35 this Friday afternoon in New York as prices were down about $2.00 for the trading week right near 4 week lows and I am neutral in this market currently and waiting for a better trend to develop as supplies are at 85 year highs here in the United States which is a bearish factor however you also have problems in the Ukrainian region which is a bullish indicator so this market could remain choppy so wait for better chart structure to develop. Crude oil futures are trading below their 20 day moving average but above their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed so look for a better trending market to get involved with.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Get our "Advanced Crude Oil Study – 15 Minute Range"

Natural gas futures in the June contract finished lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session finishing higher by 3 points for the trading week to close around 4.69 as I’m recommending a long position in this contract placing my stop loss below the 10 day low which stands at 4.50 risking around 20 points or $500 per contract as the trend is still higher in my opinion as the risk reward situation is highly in your favor as we enter the demand season of summer.

Natural gas prices have been in a bull market for quite some time and if you read some of my previous blogs several months back when prices were in the low $3 I was recommending if you have deep pockets and a longer term horizon to buy natural gas as prices were extremely cheap due to the fact of large supplies, however we had an extremely cold winter which reduced supplies dramatically and I do think natural gas prices will be sharply higher from today’s level in the next year as prices have bottomed out in my opinion.

As a trader I focus on today and tomorrow only so when I can buy a natural gas contract and risk 1,500 I will take that trade even if I don’t believe the trade. Natural gas prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is higher after we consolidated in the month March after the big run-up in early winter as prices seem to be resuming back up to the upside so play this market to the upside using my stop loss and proper risk management.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING

Fed Proof Your Portfolio

Gold prices had a volatile trading week basically finishing unchanged to settle around 1,298 in the June contract after having a tremendous reversal selling off down to 1,272 when the monthly unemployment number was released adding 280,000 jobs which is bullish the economy and bearish gold but then turned on a dime with the Ukrainian problems escalating sending gold finishing up $14 this Friday right near session highs as prices have been consolidating in recent weeks. I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in the gold market for quite some time as this market remains choppy and it might be bottoming at the current price levels as gold rallied $200 to start the year but now has given back over $100 so were at about the 50% retracement so if your bullish gold I would buy a futures contract at today’s price while placing my stop at the 10 day low which is also the 10 week low of 1,268 an ounce risking around $3,000 per contract. I’ve lived through many of these political escalations including one last August with Syria and they always seem to fizzle away so we will see if today’s rally will do the same but sit on the sidelines and see what develops. The one thing gold does have going for it is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average which is telling you that the trend might be turning higher as prices could be bottoming out.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Why Are So Many Boomers Working Longer?

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as volatility has come back into this market in the last week as prices reversed sharply off of yesterday’s contract lows of 18.66 to go out this Friday afternoon at 19.47 an ounce and if you been reading any of my previous blogs for months I’ve been talking about the possibility of silver bottoming at the $19 level and if you have deep pockets and you’re a longer-term investor I’m recommending that you buy silver as I think prices are cheap. I am bullish silver not because of the Ukrainian problems but because of the fact that the commodity markets are in a bullish trend and silver will catch up eventually as this is a highly inflationary commodity with a lot of demand as silver is used in smart phones unlike gold which really has no purpose except for a flight to quality and jewelry. Prices reversed today because of the Ukrainian situation seems to be escalating and it sent prices sharply higher but the true breakout in this market is at 20.40 that’s where I really would be recommending to get long and if you are in a futures contract already I would be adding to my position if prices break that level as a spike bottom may have occurred in yesterday’s price action.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Here's our Critical Line in the Sand for Silver

Coffee futures settled last Friday at 207 while going out this afternoon in New York at 203 continuing its high volatility as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the chart structure is starting to improve with the 10 day low currently standing at 194 which is about 1000 points away or $3,500 risk. As I’ve talked about in previous blogs coffee is a very large contract and should not be traded with a small trading account due to its high volatility as prices remain strong in my opinion so I’m sticking with my previous recommendation and just keep my stop at the 2 week low as will start to see some estimates on the Brazilian crop which should give us some short term price direction. Prices have basically stalled out in the low 200s in recent weeks as prices are still consolidating the giant move up we had earlier in the year as coffee prices are about 80% in the year 2014 as the drought in Brazil really took its toll so I remain bullish.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING


Want more....Silver, Corn, Sugar, Cocoa, Wheat....Just click here.

Where Should You Place Your Stops?

Identifying where stops exist in the market is an important lesson to learn because placing a correct stop loss will improve your trading tremendously over the course of time. Nobody knows for sure where stops should be located, however we have learned a couple of things over our 30 year career and we have a general idea where stops are placed and why.

Buy stops are generally placed above the 10 day high as well as above contract highs as the bulls generally are buying more and the short selling are getting stopped out. Sell stops are usually placed at the 10 day low as well as below contract lows which means the shorts are adding to their position and the longs are getting stopped out as they figure they are wrong. The other common places to have stops are at certain moving averages such as the 20 or 100 day moving average where traders think either the trend is turning bullish or the market is starting to break down.

Placing stops to close or not at important price levels can get very frustrating because the market can stop you out and then go the direction that you thought leaving you behind and out of the market. Placing stops is one of the most important aspects of trading in my opinion.

"What 10-Baggers (and 100-Baggers) Look Like"

Come Monday morning....will you be trading with us or against us?

Did you make it to John Carters webinars this week?

If not it's not to late to see what you missed, here is a replay of one of the webinars.

What's next? Some of us are starting John's training classes this Saturday. And we'll be putting these methods to work first thing Monday morning. Click here to sign today

The week got started when John showed us some live trades that proved that his methods of trading were working for anyone and everyone.....no matter how much money they had in their trading account.

Here's just a sample of what the webinars covered.......

*   The difference between trading for income vs. growth

*   Why attempt to double your account "before" it goes to zero in 12 months or less

*   How to control risk while being an aggressive trader

*   What Stops to use and when

*   The mindset of an aggressive trader

Click Here to Register for classes starting on Saturday

Come Monday morning.....will you be trading with us or against us?

See you in the markets!

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader

John Carters "Small Account Growth Secrets" Webinar

Last week we showed you some live trades from our trading partner John Carter that proved....with the right mindset and a little training anyone can earn a regular income trading.

Whatever your account size, if you're focused on trading for income, then you need to attend one (if not both) of the webinars that John Carter is putting on Tuesday, June 11th at 8:00PM New York Time or Wednesday, June 12th at 1:00PM New York Time

You can reserve Your Seat HERE now as there is limited seating available.

Here's just a sample of what John is going to share.......

*   The difference between trading for income vs. growth

*   Why attempt to double your account "before" it goes to zero in 12 months or less

*   How to control risk while being an aggressive trader

*   What Stops to use and when

*   The mindset of an aggressive trader

Click Here to Register

I will be attending and hope to see you there!

Ray C. Parrish
The Crude Oil Trader

John Carters "Small Account Growth Secrets" Webinar

U.S. Crude Stocks Seen Down on Higher Runs, Lower Imports

U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely fell last week for the third straight week due to increased refinery utilization and lower imports, an expanded Reuters poll of analysts showed on Tuesday.

For Wednesday morning trading crude oil prices are near steady in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy but bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $85.00 and then at this week's high of $85.89. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $83.00 and then at $82.50.

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

New Video: Where is Crude Oil Headed and How Will it Effect The Market

No surprise, interest in crude oil has spiked this week. And part of that may have come from the crude oil alert that we put here on our blog on October 12.

What is interesting about crude oil is the fact that seasonally, it should be going down. However, the market appears to be doing just the opposite. We have written about this before and when something is supposed to happen and the opposite occurs, it’s time to pay attention.

What was also interesting in crude oil is the fact that all of our “Trade Triangles” are all green giving a perfect 100% Chart Analysis score. This indicates that there are some strong trends in place and the odds are that the market should go higher. However, this is not a guarantee and all trades should be managed with stops.

In our new short video, we show some levels that crude oil could potentially go to. I also indicate a key level that many professional traders are watching and if this level is broken, it will certainly be a game changer that could effect the markets.

Just Click Here to watch the new video, and as always this video is free to view and there are no registration requirements. The one request we have is that you leave a comment about your thoughts on crude oil.

Is it Time to Buy Natural Gas? Let's Look at the Current Trend Chart

Smart Scan Chart Analysis for UNG confirms that a strong downtrend in natural gas is in place and that the market remains negative longer term. Trade this strong Downtrend with tight money management stops. A "Trade Triangle" indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders. As we can see the answer is obvious.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored -100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

-10......Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
-15......New 3 Day Low on Friday
-20......Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25......New 3 Week Low, Week Ending August 22nd
-30......New 3 Month Low in August
-100.....Total Score



To receive a Smart Scan analysis on your favorite stock just Click Here to create a FREE portfolio.

How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively

Stops are enormously important part of a traders arsenal of trading tools. Some traders confirm that stops are the most important part of their trading armour.

So here are three ways to use stops to protect your capital and lock in profits from a trade. These three money management techniques can be used in stock, futures and forex trading.

Click Here For A Video Version of This Lesson

The important rule is that you do use a real stop in the marketplace. A friend of mine joked with me that that he had never seen a “mental stop” filled electronically or in the pits.

If the market is good your stop will not be hit. If the market is bad or changing direction then you’ll want to be out of it anyway. That is why stops are so crucial to trading success.

Here are the three most commonly used types of stops. Which one do you use?
(1) Dollar stop.
(2) Percentage stop.
(3) Chart stop.
If you chose (1) you’d be correct, but, you would also be correct if you had chosen 2 or 3. All three are money management stops and are used to either lock in profits or protect capital.
————————————————–
1) A dollar stop, is when you set a predetermined dollar amount to a trade. Let’s say you want to risk $500 on a grain trade or $750 on a stock trade. Once you get your fill back from your broker or electronically online you simply figure from your fill price where to put your stop.

Pros: Easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can place stops too close in a volatile market
————————————————–
2) Percentage stop, is a very simple way for you to place a stop on a position. Here’s how it works. Let’s say your trading account is 100,000 dollars and let’s say you only want to risk 1% of your total portfolio on any one trade. You simply take a $1,000 risk which represents 1% of your over all portfolio. This can help enormously in avoiding taking BIG LOSSES. A 1% loss is easy to absorb. A 30% or 40% loss in a trade is an account killer, and should be avoided at all costs.

Pros: Easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can place stops too close.
————————————————–
3) Chart stop, a chart stop is where you place a stop that is either above or below a crucial chart level. The good thing about a chart stop is that this level is often used by other traders. That can both be a good thing and a bad thing, here’s why. Using either one of our first two examples only you know where the stop is. With a chart stop, a great many traders/brokers know that is where the stops are. In an illiquid market this type of stop should not be used, as many times brokers gun for the stops. In a highly liquid and active market this is a good stop to use.

Pros: Very easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can’t be used in thinly traded markets.
————————————————–
So there you have it. Now you have all three ways to manage your money and protect your profits in the future.

Use stops.....let them work for you.

Click Here For A Video Version of This Lesson

A special thanks goes out to guest blogger Adam Hewison

Learn How To Effectively Use Stops In This New Video

This simple trading tip can and will make a difference in your trading results in 2009.

Stops are enormously important part of a traders arsenal of trading tools. Some traders confirm that stops are the most important part of their trading armour.

So here are three ways to use stops to protect your capital and lock in profits from a trade. These three money management techniques can be used in stock, futures and forex trading.

The important rule is that you do use a real stop in the marketplace. A friend of mine joked with me that that he had never seen a “mental stop” filled electronically or in the pits.

If the market is good your stop will not be hit. If the market is bad or changing direction then you’ll want to be out of it anyway. That is why stops are so crucial to trading success.

Click Here To Watch Video

Here are the three most commonly used types of stops. Which one do you use?

(1) Dollar stop.
(2) Percentage stop.
(3) Chart stop.

If you chose (1) you’d be correct, but, you would also be correct if you had chosen 2 or 3. All three are money management stops and are used to either lock in profits or protect capital.

1) A dollar stop, is when you set a predetermined dollar amount to a trade. Let’s say you want to risk $500 on a grain trade or $750 on a stock trade. Once you get your fill back from your broker or electronically online you simply figure from your fill price where to put your stop.

Pros: Easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can place stops too close in a volatile market

————————————————–

2) Percentage stop, is a very simple way for you to place a stop on a position. Here’s how it works. Let’s say your trading account is 100,000 dollars and let’s say you only want to risk 1% of your total portfolio on any one trade. You simply take a $1,000 risk which represents 1% of your over all portfolio. This can help enormously in avoiding taking BIG LOSSES. A 1% loss is easy to absorb. A 30% or 40% loss in a trade is an account killer, and should be avoided at all costs.

Pros: Easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can place stops too close.

————————————————–

3) Chart stop, a chart stop is where you place a stop that is either above or below a crucial chart level. The good thing about a chart stop is that this level is often used by other traders. That can both be a good thing and a bad thing, here’s why. Using either one of our first two examples only you know where the stop is. With a chart stop, a great many traders/brokers know that is where the stops are. In an illiquid market this type of stop should not be used, as many times brokers gun for the stops. In a highly liquid and active market this is a good stop to use.

Pros: Very easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can’t be used in thinly traded markets.

————————————————–

So there you have it. Now you have all three ways to manage your money and protect your profits in 2009.

Use stops…let them work for you.

Click Here To Watch Video