Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and More

The three major indexes closed higher on Friday July 7th after this weeks employment report showed that 222,000 jobs were added in June marking the second largest job haul of the year and underscoring that the labor market remains healthy. If the futures markets renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are going to be hard to project.

So there is nobody better time than now to ask than our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give you a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week. Mike has been a senior analyst for over 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 46.35 a barrel while currently trading at 44.75 down about a $1.60 for the trading week despite the fact that this week's EIA report showed a 6.3 million barrel draw down as the short term and longer term trend remains weak. The United States continues to increase production, and that is the main problem as the Trump administration wants to become a major exporter. I'm not involved in oil, but I still have a bearish bias to the downside as prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the trend is lower as there were rumors that Russia might be against production cut sending prices lower to end the trading week. The commodity markets, in general, remain choppy and this is not the same oil market from 10 years ago with the U.S. changing the dynamics as we continue to produce more and more. It looks to me that production will increase over the next several years as OPEC is not nearly as powerful as they used to be which is a good thing for U.S. security. I still think prices will test the contract low which was hit on June 21st around $42 in the coming weeks.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the August contract hit a 2 month low currently trading at 1,215 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,242 down over $25 for the trading week continuing its bearish trend breaking the May 9th low of 1,217 as it looks to me that prices as I've stated in previous blogs prices are headed towards the 1,200 level. The monthly employment number came out today stating that we added 220,000 new jobs sending the stock market higher once again as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals & into the equity market. I think this trend will continue with the possibility that we will retest the January 5th low around 1,189 as this market is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis. Gold prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as silver and platinum prices continue to move lower as well. The trend is your friend in the commodity markets and if you are short stay short & place the proper stop loss as I see no reason to own gold at the current time. The U.S dollar is near a 10 month low coupled with major problems with North Korea, however that is still not able to support gold as that tells you how weak this market actually has become.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the September contract are lower by about $0.55 this Friday afternoon currently trading at 15.45 an ounce hitting a 15 month low after settling last Friday at 16.62 down about $1.20 for the trading week and trading lower 5 out of the last 6 trading sessions as the precious metals remain on the defensive. In my opinion it looks to me that prices will retest the March 2016 low around 14.78 as all the interest is in the stock market as we added another 220,000 jobs as the monthly employment report was released sending the stock market sharply higher and the precious metals sharply lower as this trend is for real to the downside. Silver prices are trading far below their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you this trend is lower and is getting stronger on a weekly basis as I see no reason to own any of the precious metals at the present time. Volatility in silver has certainly expanded over the last week as we've had two 50 cent down days with larger volume than normal which is not a good sign if you're bullish as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as catching a falling knife can be very dangerous and if you are short stay short as you are on the right side of this trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the September contract are trading right near a three week high after settling last Friday in New York at 125.35 a pound while currently trading at 128.80 up about 300 points for the trading week. Coffee is now trading above its 20 day moving average, but still below its 100 day which stands at 136.60 as the trend remains mixed. I am keeping a close eye on this market to the upside as the agricultural sectors have all come alive as it looks to me that short term bottoms are in place as the chart structure is starting to improve with the 10 day low standing at 123.30. It will improve on a daily basis as the spike bottom which happened on June 22nd at 115.50 looks to be the short term low in my opinion. Volatility in coffee has come to a crawl once again which is a good thing therefore lowering the monetary risk as all of the bad news has already been priced into coffee & many of the soft commodities so keep a close eye on this for a bullish position possibly in next week's trade as this sleeping giant will awaken once again just like what happened in the grain market.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and More

The three major indexes all closed higher on Friday, setting the stage for a steady or higher opening on Monday. But will our major commodities join them in a possible bull market run this week? There is nobody better to ask than our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give you a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week. Mike has been a senior analyst for over 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract have traded higher for the 7th consecutive trading session are currently at 45.34 after settling last Friday in New York at 43.01 a barrel up about $2.30 for the trading week right at a 2 week high. I have not been involved in crude oil for quite some time. The energy sector had a positive week with the U.S dollar down around 150 points helping support prices, and crude is now trading above its 20 day moving average for the 1st time in awhile, but still below its 100 day and this trend remains mixed so avoid this sector. Oil prices bottomed out on June 21st around 42.05, and I'm still not bullish the energy sector. I still think lower prices are ahead as U.S rig counts continue to increase on a weekly basis as the U.S will become a net exporter which means we will rely less on Mideast oil which is a great thing for U.S security and a great thing for prices. Gasoline and heating oil which are byproducts of crude oil also have rallied this week, and they remain very bearish as gas prices at the pump for the Fourth of July weekend are the lowest in 12 years. I paid a $1.96 just the other day.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,256 an ounce while currently trading at 1,243 down about $13 for the trading week. I'm currently not involved in this market, but I do think lower prices are ahead despite the fact that the U.S dollar was down about 150 points this week, but was still unable to lend any support to gold prices. Gold is still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower, if you are short a futures contract place the stop loss at the 10 day high which stands at 1,260. The chart structure is solid with the next level of support at 1,235, and if that is broken, I think we could retest the 1,200 level rather quickly. I do not have any precious metal recommendations. I still believe that they remain weak except for copper prices which have broken out to the upside. Gold remains relatively nonvolatile over the last several weeks, and we need some fresh fundamental news such as interest rate hikes or global geopolitical problems to start pushing prices in either direction.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Silver futures in the September contract are currently trading at 16.65 an ounce unchanged this Friday afternoon after settling last Friday in New York at 16.70 unchanged for the week with extremely low volatility. Prices have nothing fundamentally speaking to push prices up or down at present. Silver is still trading below it's 20 and 100 day moving average as this trend remains to the downside despite the U.S dollar being down about 150 points which help support silver prices, but this market remains weak as there's very little demand despite historically low prices. The next major level support is 16.40 and if that is broken prices could retest the May 9th low of 16.12. The commodity markets remain weak despite small rallies across the board. The only exception is the wheat market which is being propelled by exceptional droughts in the Dakotas sending massive volatility into that market. Silver prices have remained extremely choppy in 2017 as we have been trading between 16/18 for many months so I'd avoid this market in my opinion & look at other markets that are beginning to trend with higher volatility.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Coffee futures settled last Friday in New York at 123.00 a pound while currently trading at 126 up about 300 points for the trading week right at a two week high as a possible spike bottom may have occurred on June 22nd at the 115.50 level. Prices are now trading above their 20 day, but still below their 100 day moving average as this trend remains mixed in my opinion. Coffee has entered their frost season in Brazil and rumors of colder temperatures have pushed up prices in recent days. This market has been bearish over the last several months, but everything comes to an end, and I avoided this market. I wrote about in many previous blogs I was not going to take a short position as I'm still looking at a possible bullish position if prices hit a four week high as the chart structure is solid. My only soft commodity recommendation is a bearish position in the cotton market as traders await the highly anticipated USDA crop report which will be released at 11 o'clock today. It will certainly send high volatility across the board so avoid this market and look at other scenarios with a better risk/reward scenario. I still think coffee prices remain choppy over the next several weeks.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Sugar and More

It's time once again to check in with our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 45.83 a barrel while currently trading at 44.65 down over $1 for the trading week testing lows we haven't seen since November 2016. I'm not involved in this market, but I do think lower prices are ahead for the entire energy sector. At present, my only energy recommendation is a short natural gas position as complex oversupply issues continue to put pressure on prices in the short term. We are still trading far below the 20 and 100 day moving average, and that's telling you that the short term trend is lower in natural gas. The next major level of support is all the way down at the 42 level as Rig counts in the United States continue to increase supply, so if you are short a futures contract stay short & place the proper stop loss as I think lower prices are ahead. Gasoline and heating oil are also at fresh contract lows putting pressure on crude oil, and there is nothing right or positive to say about this sector at present. Today's slight rally across the board is just a dead cat bounce in my opinion and is due to oversold conditions.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Natural gas futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.03 while currently trading at 3.03 unchanged for the trading week despite Thursday's trade rallying 12 points due to a bullish inventory report. I recommended a short position from the 3.17 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high standing at 3.10 as the chart structure is outstanding. Natural gas prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average which tells you that the trend is lower as we retested 4 month lows in Wednesday's trade. Stay short as mild temperatures in the 7/10 day forecast for Midwestern part of the United States could put pressure back on this market as the energy sector looks very weak in my opinion. Natural gas prices are just an eyelash away from getting stopped out as this trade has experienced very low volatility since the entry point, but if we are stopped out we will move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the trends are coming back in the commodity sectors which is a great thing to see, but stay short as who knows what Monday's price action will bring.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Gold prices settled last Friday in New York at 1,271 an ounce while currently trading at 1,256 down about $15 for the trading week and topping out at the 1,300 level. The Federal Reserve announced that they raised interest rates a .25 point and plan on raising interest rates further down the road and this sent gold prices to a three week low. I am not involved in any of the precious metals as they have been incredibly choppy in 2017 and the monetary risk and the risk/reward has not met my criteria as prices are now trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average. I'm advising clients to avoid this sector and gold at the present time. The commodity markets, in general, remain weak in my opinion except for a select few with the stock market continuing to move higher taking money flows out of the gold and moving them into the Dow Jones once again. I think that trend will continue despite the terrorist attacks happening on a weekly basis coupled with uncertainty worldwide. Prices seem to have one more leg lower to the downside with a possible retest of 1,215 in my opinion. Silver prices this week also went into the negative as those prices remain extremely choppy as well, but one day the trends will come back in the metals so keep a close eye on this market & wait for the chart structure to improve.
Trend: Mixed - Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the October contract are trading lower for the 6th consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 14.47 a pound while currently trading at 13.60 down nearly 80 points and continuing its bearish trend. I'm not sure anyone knows how low prices could go. The next significant level of support is around the February 2016 low of 12.45, and if that is broken it could retest the August 2015 lows around 10.00 that's how bearish this commodity is. This is due to overproduction and a very weak Brazilian Real which continues to put pressure on anything grown in Brazil. Sugar prices are trading far under their 20 and 100 day moving average and this trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis. I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as that would be counter trend trading and trying to pick a bottom is very dangerous over the long haul. The soft commodities still look very weak as the agricultural sectors except for a couple continue to head lower so, if you do have a short futures position stay short & place the proper stop loss as you are on the right side of this trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Silver, Coffee and More

Both the SP500 [key reversal down] and NASDAQ [below the 20 day moving average] closed sharply lower on Friday while the Dow managed to close higher extending the rally off April's low into uncharted territory. This will make upside targets hard to project for the Dow.

So let's get ready for this weeks trading with a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures settled last Friday in New York at 47.66 a barrel while currently trading at 45.55 down about $2 for the trading week, but still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as prices are looking to retest the May 5th low of 44.13 in my opinion. The longer term and short term trend is to the downside as large supplies continue to keep a lid on prices. Gasoline and heating oil also continue to move lower, and my only recommendation in the energy sector is short the natural gas market at this time. The chart structure in oil is poor as the 10 day high is around $52 which is over $6 away. I'm currently waiting for the monetary risk to be lowered and I am looking at a short position possibly in next week's trade. There are concerns about gasoline demand which has also pushed oil lower over the last several weeks, but this market has been very choppy in 2017 as the volatility in the commodity markets are starting to rise once again as the summer months are upon us and historically speaking this is when you see large price swings up or down.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Natural gas futures settled last Friday in New York at 2.99 while currently trading at 3.04 up 5 points in an extremely low volatile trading week. I've been recommending a short position from the 3.17 level, and if you took the trade place the stop loss in Monday's trade at 3.26. Tuesday it will be lowered to 3.17 as the chart structure is becoming outstanding. For the bearish momentum to continue prices have to break the February 28th low of 2.88 which is still quite a distance away so stay short and continue to place the proper stop loss as the trend is still lower in my opinion. Prices are still underneath their 20 and 100 day moving average looking for some fresh fundamental moves to put some volatility back into this market. The energy sector, in general, continues its bearish momentum this week as oversupply issues continue to hamper this market as production levels in natural gas are increasing in 2017 and 2018. Higher temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States are expected this weekend and that has helped prop up prices here in the short term, but the 7/10 day forecast still has average temperatures, so let's see what develops next week. I'm still looking at adding more contracts to the downside.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday at 17.52 an ounce while currently trading at 17.28 trading lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session after topping out at 6 week highs earlier in the week around 17.74. I'm currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy in my opinion. Silver prices are trading right at their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average as the U.S dollar has rallied somewhat over the last couple days putting pressure on gold and silver prices. The chart structure is poor therefore the monetary risk is too high for me to enter into this market at this time. The next major level of support is right at the 17 level, and for this market to continue its bullish momentum, we would have to break 17.75. Volatility has come upon us once again which is excellent to see in my opinion. Many of the commodity markets remain mixed as they are not trading in unison and that's what I'd like to see occur once again like we experienced in years past.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor - Improving

Coffee futures in the July contract is currently trading at 128.25 a pound after settling last Friday in New York at 125.25 up about 300 points for the trading week. I'm currently not involved in this market. However, I will not initiate a short position as I think coffee prices are cheap and I'm looking at a bullish position once a true breakout occurs. Coffee futures are still trading under their 20 day and 100 day moving average which stands at 139 which is quite a distance away. However, the chart structure is rather solid at the present time, and the volatility is really low as prices have been grinding lower. At the present time, we are in the frost season in the country of Brazil which is the largest producer in the world as colder temperatures are expected this weekend, but no frost as the agricultural markets are starting to stabilize despite the fact of the Brazilian Real remaining very weak against the U.S dollar. If you take a look at the daily chart, there is major support around the 125 level which was hit in the last 5 trading sessions and unable to break. I do believe we are finding support as prices are bottoming out in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Sugar, Cotton, Corn and more....Just Click Here!

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and More

The NASDAQ 100 closed higher for the seventh day in a row on Friday as investors struggled to find fresh reasons to push shares to records after a six session winning streak ahead of a holiday weekend. Both the SP500 and Dow closed slightly lower on Friday as they both consolidated some of this week's gains ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday. The high range closes in the SP500 and Dow set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading.

So let's get ready for this weeks trading with a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude Oil futures in the July contract are trading lower for the 2nd consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 50.67 a barrel while currently trading at 48.82 down nearly $2 for the trading week right at a two week low. Crude oil has remained incredibly choppy in 2017, and I'm not involved in this market. Traders were disappointed with OPEC's decision in Thursday's trade that sold off oil nearly $3 a barrel as Rig counts in the United States continue to climb. Oil's fundamentals remain bearish with prices still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower. I am advising clients to avoid this commodity at present. I don't have any trade recommendations for the 1st time in over two decades because of how choppy the commodity markets are presently. However, things will change as we enter the summer months when historically speaking volatility comes back and the trends do as well.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor - Choppy

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Gold futures in the June contract are trading higher by $10 this Friday afternoon after settling last Friday at 1,253 while currently trading at 1,267 up about $14 for the trading week and hitting a four week high. Gold is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the upside as a weaker U.S dollar coupled with a terrorist attack this week helped propel prices higher. The next major level of resistance is at 1,275 & if that is broken, I would have to think that prices will retest the April 17th high of 1,297 as this is one of the only few bullish trends out of the commodity sectors. I am not involved in this market at present as the chart structure remains poor. The U.S dollar is right near a seven month low as that has certainly helped gold prices come off recent lows as that trend seems to be strong to the downside. The stock market hit all time highs once again in Thursday's trade having very little effect on gold prices as money flows seem to be going into both sectors which is very unusual, but can happen periodically with investors being interested in both sectors. In my opinion, I still believe gold prices are limited to the upside as all the excitement is in the equity markets, but there are so many problems worldwide right now that prices are supported in the short term.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor - Choppy

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.79 an ounce while currently trading at 17.30 up about $0.50 for the trading week right near a four week high and this market remains very choppy in my opinion. Silver prices are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at 17.43 which is just an eyelash away with the next major level of resistance at the 18/18.50 level. Terrorism throughout the world and tensions with North Korea have bolstered the precious metals in recent weeks including silver prices. Silvers chart structure is poor, meaning the monetary risk is too high and the trend is too choppy to enter into a new trade, so be patient as we could be involved over the next couple of weeks. It's time to look at other markets that are beginning to trend as there are few and far between. Silver historically speaking is an inflationary commodity, but at present inflation is still under 2% in the United States with many of the agricultural markets near recent lows once again. Silver has had a hard time sustaining any real type of rally in 2017.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor - Choppy

Coffee futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 132.10 a pound while currently trading at 130.00 down about 200 points for the trading week continuing its slow grinding bearish momentum to the downside. I'm not involved in this market and will not take a short position and I'm advising clients to avoid coffee at present. The agricultural markets continue to look weak and the Brazilian Real is the main culprit and has put pressure on sugar, coffee, orange juice and soybean prices as these markets all look to head lower in my opinion. However, I do think the downside is limited as that is the reason I am not going short. Coffee's trading under its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as large production numbers are coming out of the country of Brazil which is the biggest producer in the world as a weak currency and abundant supply continues to keep a lid on prices. The chart structure in coffee is still is very solid and as I've written about in previous blogs, I'm interested in a bullish position if prices break the 137.75 area which is still quite a distance away so keep a close eye on this market as the volatility will not stay this low for much longer.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Sugar, Cotton, Corn and more....Just Click Here!

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Dollar, Coffee and Sugar

It's been a crazy end to the week of January 9th through January 13th with the recent wild ride up we had in crude oil going through a calming period you might say it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the March contract settled last Friday at 54.87 a barrel while currently trading at 53.24 down about $1.50 for the trading week as I'm sitting on the sidelines looking at a possible short position as prices are right near a 4 week low. The chart structure will start to improve later next week therefore lowering monetary risk as we enter the long holiday Martin Luther King weekend as trading does not continue until Tuesday as prices are now trading below their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is mixed so avoid this commodity at present. Oil prices have rallied significantly over the last several months due to the fact that OPEC has cut production and are certainly trying to prop up prices. However I'm a technical trader, and when the risk/reward becomes in your favor I will take that trade, but at this point in time, your going to have to wait until next week before pulling the trigger. Major support is around Tuesday's low of 51.59 as that would also be the 4 week low as that would be the entry point so keep a close eye on this market as the trends are starting to come back in many commodity sectors.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,176 an ounce while currently trading at 1,196 up $20 for the trading week continuing its bullish momentum right at a 7 week high. I have been sitting on the sidelines in this market looking at entering into a bullish position as I do think the precious metal sector has bottomed, however, the chart structure needs to improve as the 10 day low stands at 1,149 which is too far away, in my opinion, risking too much money so be patient as we could be in a bullish position in several of the precious metals later next week. Gold prices are still trading above their 20 day but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the shorter term trend is mixed as the U.S dollar is also near a 4 week low as gold prices have been hit over the last year as all the interest remains in the S&P 500 which is right near another all time high. Trading is all about risk/reward & its not in your favor at the present time, but could be later next week or on a significant price decline as I'm looking at buying this market around the 1,180 level which could happen on any given day so be nimble and quick as trading does not resume until Tuesday afternoon because of the holiday weekend in the United States.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor - Improving

The U.S dollar in the March contract is trading lower for the 2nd consecutive session at 101.20 hitting a 4 week low as prices may have topped out on January 3rd at 103.81 as I'm looking at entering into a possible short position, however the monetary risk is too high at the present time as the 10 day high stands at 103.81 risking around $2,600 per contract plus slippage and commission which is too high for this commodity which generally is a lower volatility market. The U.S dollar is trading below its 20 day but still above its 100 day moving average which stands at 99.52 as the rally in the bond market has stalled out as the yield on the 10 year note is around 2.39% as we wait for the Trump administration to take place next week as that certainly will add some clarity to a lot of situations as volatility certainly will increase in my opinion. The chart structure will improve next week so keep a close eye on this market & look to sell on some type of relief rally. Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 144.20 a pound while currently trading at 148.75 hitting a 6 week high as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for the chart structure to improve therefore lowering monetary risk as I am bullish coffee as I do think prices are headed higher. Dry weather conditions in the country of Brazil is starting to concern investors pushing up prices here over the last several weeks coupled with the fact of very strong demand despite estimates of nearly 55 billion bags being produced, however the tide has turned in the coffee market, so you want to play this to the upside in my opinion. Coffee prices are trading above their 20 & 100 day moving averages telling you that the trend is higher as the commodity markets, in general, are starting to perk up in early 2017 as I do think the giant bearish trends are over with. The chart structure is terrible at present as the 10 day low is way too far away so I will have to be patient as 3/5 days have to come off the calendar therefore improving monetary risk, but I'm certainly not recommending any type of short position.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 20.75 a pound while currently trading at 20.82 in a relatively nonvolatile trading week still digesting the sharp rally that we experienced over the last 4 weeks. Sugar prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines, but could be involved in a bullish position next week as the chart structure will turn outstanding therefore lowering monetary risk which then meets my criteria. The commodity markets, in general, look bullish almost across the board as dry weather conditions in Brazil are pushing prices up in coffee and sugar in recent weeks coupled with the fact that the U.S dollar has also hit a 4 week low helping support prices. I trade the sugar market quite often actually & had a short position last month before getting stopped out right around Christmas as this commodity is very trendy and now the trend, in my opinion, is to the upside.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar

It's been a crazy end to the week of November 28th through December 2nd with the wild ride up we had in crude oil and that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the January contract settled last Friday in New York at 46.06 a barrel while currently trading at 50.55 up about $4.50 for the trading week all due to the fact of OPEC cutting 4.5% of production sending prices in Wednesdays and Thursdays trade sharply higher now hitting a 5 week high. Prices bottomed out around November 14th at 42.74 & now has rallied about $8 as this market remains extremely choppy and has gone nowhere over the last 6 months as I am currently sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is poor therefore the monetary risk is too high to enter in my opinion. The energy sector has caught fire including natural gas as winter is now upon us which is the high demand for heating oil as well, however I still think this market remains choppy for the rest of 2016 as a strong U.S dollar could limit prices to the upside in my opinion so look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk. Crude oil is now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average with major resistance around the $52 level which was hit in the month of October on a couple of different occasions and if that level is broken you have to think that the bullish trend would continue, but at present I'm recommending no position. 
Trend: Higher 
Chart Structure: Poor

Natural gas futures in the January contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.20 while currently trading at 3.46 up significantly for the trading week hitting a 5 week high. At the current time, I'm sitting on the sidelines as I wrote about this market 2 weeks ago as I was looking to get into a bullish position. However, the chart structure did not meet my criteria as the monetary risk was too high at the time. Natural gas prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as prices look to retest the contract high which was hit on October 18th at 3.67 as we enter the extremely volatile winter season which can cause tremendous price spikes due to very cold weather in the Midwestern part of the United States. Natural gas has been on a wild roller coaster bottoming out on November 9th at 2.72 as I'm looking for a consolidation before entering as the entire energy sector has caught fire over the last several weeks. There is a price gap between 3.22/3.25 and that makes me nervous if you have a bullish position as I do think that gap will be closed within the next week so let's keep a close eye on that price level. 
Trend: Higher 
Chart Structure: Poor

Gold futures in the February contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,181 an ounce while now trading at 1,175 hitting a fresh 8 month low as prices continue to move southward on a weekly basis as I am kicking myself as I am not short, however, I have not been picking a bottom either. At present, I'm telling investors to avoid this market, but certainly, do not be buying this commodity as I do believe lower prices are ahead as I'm still very bullish the U.S dollar and the stock market as a whole since both of those are negative towards gold prices. The 10 year note today broke 2.40% which is the highest yield since January and I do believe interest rates are going higher which is not another negative influence towards gold prices. Gold futures continue to move lower despite the fact that crude oil is about $6 in the last 2 trading sessions which generally is very bullish most inflationary commodities, however, that shows you how weak gold is at present as demand is lacking. 
Trend: Lower 
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.55 an ounce while currently trading at 16.53 basically unchanged with the week trading in a very nonvolatile manner as prices are stuck in a two week consolidation after hitting a 5 month low. Silver prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to occur which could develop in the next couple of weeks as the chart structure is improving on a daily basis, therefore, lowering monetary risk. Gold prices have been falling rather dramatically ever since the Trump election as that has put severe pressure on silver prices ,however if we are going to expand the economy & do huge infrastructure stimulus I would think that silver prices look cheap as copper prices are still right near recent highs and sharply higher from their 2016 lows. Trading is all about risk/reward and at present I just don't see a trade in this commodity as trading to trade is a very dangerous over the course of time as you must be patient and wait for probabilities to improve in your favor. 
Trend: Lower - Mixed 
Chart Structure: Improving

Coffee futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 155.0 a pound while currently trading at 145.60 down about 900 points from trading week with prices not seen since mid August as prices topped out last month around the 1.80 level, but at the current time I'm sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure has been poor in this market for months. Coffee prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average for the 1st time in months & that tells you that the short term trend is lower with the next major level of support around the 140 level as I do believe coffee prices are getting cheap. A strong U.S dollar is certainly keeping a lid on many agricultural products including coffee, but my only short position in the soft commodities is a short sugar position which also continues to move lower. However, the volatility will be to the upside in coffee as were starting to enter the very volatile and critical winter growing season in the country of Brazil. Many of the commodity markets have been very choppy over the last several months, and that's why I only have 1 trade recommendation as I'm waiting for better chart structure to develop across many different sectors as that might take some time. 
Trend: Lower 
Chart Structure: Poor

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Coffee, Sugar

It's Saturday and that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. 

Crude oil futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 38.50 a barrel while currently trading 40.65 up over $2 for the trading week now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average for the first time in 6 months. The selloff in the U.S dollar has pushed up oil prices tremendously over the last several weeks. Oil prices are trading higher for the 3rd consecutive day; however this rally has been based on very low volume which is a little concerning as I'm sitting on the sidelines in this market as I have missed the rally to the upside. The U.S dollar has hit a 6 month low and that has propped up many commodity prices and especially crude oil as gasoline and heating oil also have rallied substantially. You will notice this at your local gas station as you are paying much more than you were just three or four weeks ago as the tide has turned in the commodity markets. Rumors are circulating that Saudi Arabia is going to urge OPEC to start cutting production, therefore, pushing up prices even higher as their economy is struggling due to low prices. However, the chart structure is poor and sometimes you miss trades as this did not meet criteria to enter into and that's exactly what happened to me, as I am leery of this market in 42/45 level as I assume production will come back onto the table because of higher prices.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Natural gas futures in the April contract is now trading above its 20 day, but still below its 100 day moving average settling last Friday in New York at 182 while currently trading at 194. I was recommending a short position getting stopped out earlier in the week as now I'm currently sitting on the sidelines. Natural gas prices are trading at a 4 week high. However, the chart structure is poor meaning that the 10 day low it's too far away to meet my criteria to enter into a new trade so keep a close eye on this market as we could get involved to the upside soon. The fundamentals remain bearish. However, that has already been reflected in the price as supplies are huge at the present time, but the bearish short term trend has ended in my opinion. The energy sector has caught fire over the last several weeks as crude oil is now trading at 42 a barrel which has also supported gas prices in the short term, but look at other markets that are beginning to trend with higher potential.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,259 an ounce while currently trading at 1,254 down slightly for the trading week in a very highly volatile trading manner as prices reacted sharply to the upside off of the Federal Reserve statement of not raising interest rates sending prices up over $40 in Thursday's trade. At the current time, I'm sitting on the sidelines in this market as I have missed the upside. However, I am not bullish gold at this price level as I think prices are topping out. However I'm not recommending a short position, but if you believe my opinion, I would sell a mini contract while placing the stop loss above the most recent high of 1,287 risking $30 or $1,000 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. Negative interest rates throughout the world have spooked investors back into the gold market as commodities, in general, have rallied as a whole. However, I remain bullish the stock market which continues to move higher as I think money flows will come out of the precious metals here in the short term. Remember when trading commodities it’s all based on risk as the risk/reward on the short side I think is in your favor, but it does not meet my criteria for an official entry into a new trade which has to be a 4 week low, but decide for yourself what's best for your trading account.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Coffee futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 125.80 a pound while currently trading at 134.50 trading higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session up around 900 points for the trading week hitting a 5 month high. I've been recommending a bullish position from around the 121.50 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss below the 10 day low which currently stands at 119 as the chart structure is terrible at the present time due to the fact that coffee prices have exploded to the upside over the last week. The commodity markets, in general, have rallied substantially due to the fact that the U.S dollar has hit a 6 month low and it certainly looks to me that the bear markets are over with in the short term. However, if you have missed this trade the risk/reward is not your favor at the current time as you missed the boat so you must look at other markets that are beginning to trend. The next major level of resistance is the October high around 142 as I think prices could test that level next week as coffee prices are still cheap in my opinion as demand currently is strong. At the current time, I'm recommending a bullish position in cocoa and coffee as the soft commodity markets have certainly caught fire recently including the sugar market so start looking at the commodities to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.13 a pound while currently trading at 15.86 continuing its remarkable bullish run to the upside hitting a 14 month high as I'm sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure has not met my criteria towards entering into the trade. However, I'm certainly not recommending any type of short position as it looks to me that prices are headed even higher. Sugar futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the upside as the commodity markets have caught fire as who knows how high sugar prices can actually go as production cuts throughout major growing regions throughout the world are causing concerns about carryover levels pushing prices up tremendously over the last 3 weeks. Remember when you trade commodities the trend is your friend and trading with the path of least resistance is the most successful way to trade in my opinion over the course of time so do not sell sugar at this point, but if you have missed this trade sit on the sidelines and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the horse has left the barn in this market in the short term.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, U.S. Dollar, Gold, Silver, Sugar

It's Saturday and that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. 

Crude oil futures in the April contract settled last Friday at 31.91 a barrel while currently trading at 32.00 basically unchanged for the trading week with a possible double bottom being created around $29 the level occurring. Crude oil prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as the long term trend is also to the downside despite the fact that several countries decided to freeze production this week, but that still leaves production at record levels as investors found that as another negative situation.

The volatility in crude oil is extremely high at the current time as I’m looking to possibly enter into a short position on any type of rally as the chart structure has improved tremendously, therefore, lowering monetary risk, but at this point I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for an opportunity which could develop any day. The commodity markets in general still look weak as I still have many short positions in several different commodity sectors including natural gas which is hitting another contract low today as supplies are just too high across the board despite the fact that the U.S dollar may have topped out.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Natural gas prices in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.03 while currently trading at 1.89 trading lower 7 out of the last 8 trading sessions as the original recommendation was a short position in the March contract as we rolled over and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 2.23 as the chart structure is very poor at the present time.

Natural gas prices continue to move lower on a weekly basis as this trade has gone straight down from the original recommendation so continue to place the proper stop loss as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis, as I still see lower prices ahead possibly retesting 1.75 and if that is broken I think we can test 1.50 as extremely warm weather in the Midwestern part of the United States continues to plague this commodity.

The fundamentals in natural gas are extremely bearish with all time high inventories as we were producing too many products especially in the energy sector including natural gas so continue to play this to the downside as I'm looking at adding more contracts once some type of price kickback develops, as I still see no reason to own natural gas especially as we enter the month of March, as springtime is upon us.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

The U.S dollar in the March contract settled last Friday at 95.98 while currently trading at 96.92 up around 100 points for the trading week as I’m currently recommending a short position from around the 96.90 level while placing my stop loss above the 10 day high at 97.50 risking around 60 points or $600 per contract plus slippage and commission.

The dollar is trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as prices are near a 4 month low due to the fact that the interest rates in the United States have been dropping dramatically, as lower rates mean a lower U.S dollar generally. Volatility in the dollar certainly has increased because of the stock market which is on a roller coaster ride daily sending shockwaves into currency markets.

The next major level of support is around the 95.00 level and if that is broken I think we can retest the 93 level in the coming weeks as it certainly looks to me that interest rates are even going lower as worldwide rates have turned negative in certain countries which is an amazing situation in my opinion as the risk/reward is in your favor at the present time as I am still recommending this trade even if you did not take the original advice.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,239 an ounce while currently trading at 1,231 down about $8 for the trading week trading in a highly volatile manner. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the upside as prices have skyrocketed from the contract low around 1,050 and now have rallied over $200 in a matter of weeks as panic around the world is sending gold prices sharply higher.

At the current time, I am sitting on the sidelines as the risk is too much for me to tolerate as the only recommendation in the precious metals currently is the silver market as the gold chart structure is terrible. The S&P 500 has been extremely volatile in the year 2016 and that has supported gold prices however the S&P has rallied significantly over the last week, but it has not been a negative influence on gold as there is demand for gold at the current time and I’m certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as that would be counter trend and poor trading in my opinion so avoid this market at the present time.

Trading is all about risk as I see other opportunities in the commodity markets where the risk/reward is in your favor coupled with outstanding chart structure as gold does not meet any of my criteria to enter into a trade as sometimes you miss trades and that’s exactly what has occurred in this situation.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.79 an ounce while currently trading at 15.47 down about $.30 in a highly volatile trading week with large swings on a daily basis as I have been recommending a bullish position from around 14.80 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss below the 10 day low which now stands at 14.90 a chart structure has improved tremendously over the last several days.

The next major level of resistance in silver is around the $16 level as we will have to roll out of the March contract into the May contract early next week due to expiration as I will give the new stop loss in that blog as well. Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the upside as money flows continue to go back into the precious metals for the first time in several years as the precious metals have fallen tremendously from their highs just hit in the year 2011.

In my opinion, the U.S dollar has topped out which is bullish the precious metals so stay long this market while placing the proper stop loss as volatility has certainly come back into this market which is generally a bullish indicator.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 13.12 while currently trading at 12.64 a pound hitting a fresh 5 month low as I’ve been recommending a short position originally in the March contract as we rolled over into the May contract and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 13.50 as the chart structure is poor.

Sugar prices are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive day as I still think there’s a probability that prices will fill the gap at 11.80 which is still another 85 points away as prices are still trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis so stay short in my opinion while placing the proper stop loss.

Sugar prices experienced a rounding top which I’ve talked about in many previous blogs over the last several weeks peeking out around 15.50 as being nimble is a major key to success in my opinion as waiting for the trade to develop is definitely beneficial in the long run so stay short as I’m looking to add more contracts once the chart structure and the risk/reward meet my criteria as lower prices are ahead in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, U.S. Dollar, Coffee, Sugar

Today it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the last weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the March contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a contract and multi year low in Thursday’s trade before rallying this Friday currently trading at 28.10 a barrel up nearly $2 on massive short covering ending the week. Crude oil futures traded as low as 26.05 in Thursday’s trade only to rally, but this market certainly remains weak, but at the current time on sitting on the sidelines as the risk does not meet my criteria as the chart structure is very poor presently. As a trader you must think about probabilities of success and at the current time I’m only focused on the soft commodities as they have very tight chart structure with solid trends to the downside as crude oil remains choppy down these levels as the easy money to the downside has already been made in my opinion. The problem with crude oil is the fact that we have huge worldwide supplies as there is a possibility that the United States might be entering a recession due to the fact that the world has slowed down tremendously as global growth is a thing of the past in the short term.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Natural gas futures in the March contract continue to head lower despite the fact of very cold temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States currently trading at 1.98 as I’ve been recommending a short position from around the 2.14 level and if you took that trade continue place your stop loss at the 10 day high which now stands at 2.17 as the chart structure is outstanding at the present time. Natural gas prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside as the long term now trend line is also intact so I remain short as I think there’s a possibility that we can retest the December 18th contract low around 191 as winter is almost behind us, therefore, demand could weaken even more. If you did not take the original trade wait for some type of price rally before entering, therefore, lowering risk as the 10 day high will not be lowered for another 9 days, so you’re going to have to be patient with the risk tolerance at this point. Natural gas prices are trending stronger on a weekly basis in my opinion as who knows how low prices could actually go.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

Gold prices experienced a wild trading week settling last Friday in New York at 1,157 an ounce while currently trading at 1,233 up around $75 for the trading week hitting a 1 year high as panic has struck the financial markets sending huge money flows into the interest rate market and precious metals. At the current time, I’m sitting on the sidelines in gold as the chart structure is terrible as the risk is huge at this point, but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as that would be counter trend so avoid this market at the present time. The S&P 500 has certainly propped up gold prices here in the short-term as gold prices are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside as my only recommendation in the precious metals is silver. Gold is in overbought territory in my opinion as volatility is huge at the current time as we had over a $50 rally in Thursday’s trade as I think volatility will continue to remain high as there is so much uncertainty worldwide at the present time. The U.S dollar has also entered into a bearish trend topping out around the 100 level which is a fundamental bullish indicator towards gold prices.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

The U.S dollar in the March contract settled last Friday at 97.05 while currently trading at 96.12 continuing its bearish momentum as I missed this trade to the downside as I’m currently on sitting on the sidelines remaining bearish, but the chart structure and the risk/reward did not meet my criteria to enter into a short position. The dollar is trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as prices are right at a 4 month low due to the fact that the interest rates in the United States have been dropping dramatically, as lower rates mean a lower U.S dollar generally. Volatility in the dollar certainly has increased because of the stock market which is on a roller coaster ride daily sending shockwaves into currency markets as I’m looking to enter into a short position once the risk/reward is in my favor which could happen sometime next week so keep a close eye on this market as we could be entering into a new trade soon. The next major level of support is around 95.00 level and if that is broken, I think we can retest the 93 level in the coming weeks as it certainly looks to me that interest rates are even going lower as worldwide rates have turned negative in certain countries which is an amazing situation in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the March contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as this market remains extremely choppy and has been over the last 6 months as I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to develop. Coffee settled last Friday in New York at 123.20 a pound while currently trading at 115.40 down about 800 points for the trading week as the commodity markets and especially the soft commodities remain weak in my opinion. However, a breakout has not occurred at the present time. Recently there has been very little fresh fundamental news to dictate short term price action as this is basically a technical trade, but keep an eye on this market as a breakout will occur in my opinion, so you are going to have to be patient as I do like trading the coffee market, but have not been involved for many months. As a trader you must be diversified for example sometimes the grain market or any other market might go sideways for a long period of time, so it’s tough to go to make money, however that’s why you must be diversified and look at all markets, as something is always developing, therefore, giving you a better chance of success in my opinion so keep a close eye on this market as I’m very hopeful one day we will be involved.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 13.14 a pound while currently trading at 13.12 basically unchanged for the trading week as I have been recommending a short position for several weeks and if you took the original trade we were short the March contract and now we have rolled over into the May contract while now placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands around 13.50 as chart structure is outstanding at the present time. Sugar prices are right near a 4 month low as one of my main reasons for selling this market was the fact of a rounding top on the daily chart taking about 3 months to occur, but as a trader, you must have patience as this paid off here in the short-term. The chart structure at the current time is outstanding as the 10 day low will not be lowered for another 7 days, so you’re going to have to be patient with the risk situation, as the next major level of support is around 12.75 and if that is broken I think we could test the contract low around 11.50 so remain short in my opinion as I still see no reason to own many of the commodities as currently I’m short cocoa, cotton, and, of course, the sugar market.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellant

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Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Crude Oil, Gold, Coffee, Sugar and Markets

Over the past few weeks, the likelihood of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve Bank has grown substantially. Both economic data and hints from a number of Federal Reserve policymakers now point towards a December rate hike and now on Wall Street 70% of investors polled believe a rate hike in December is possible. 

So let us take a look at the data and what Fed officials are saying that is making investors believe a hike is coming. Our trading partner Mike Seery  is back to give our us a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week.

Crude oil futures in the January contract are up 90 cents this Friday afternoon in New York settling at 42.00 last Friday while currently trading at 42.60 as this market has been on the defensive for quite some time due to the fact of massive worldwide supplies as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines at the current time. Oil prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a double top at the 52 dollar level with the next major level of support at the contract low which was hit in late August around 40.00 as we could be entering a short position next week as the chart structure is starting to improve dramatically on a daily basis. Crude oil has stabilized in recent days due to the fact of terrorism and especially the possibility of that spreading to the Middle East, however worldwide supplies are massive and that is the real problem coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar which is higher once again today as the Federal Reserve basically will raise interest rates in the month of December which is also another negative, but as a trader I look for risk/reward to be in your favor and that could be in next week’s trade to the short side as I’m not convinced that prices are headed lower. In my opinion think if the oil market moves higher you’re going to need OPEC to cut production and I’m not sure if they are willing to do that at the current time, but if that does happen that would certainly put the short term bottom into this market.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the December contract settled in New York last Friday at 1,081 an ounce while currently trading at 1,081 unchanged for the trading week still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside, however I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market as prices have dropped $100 in the last three weeks as the chart structure is awful at the current time. Earlier in the week prices traded at a new contract low of 1,062 and now has rallied for the 2nd straight day as I still see no reason to own gold at current time as money flows are coming out of the precious metals once again and into the equity markets as I think that trend will continue for the rest of 2015. Gold prices have stabilized here in recent days due to the fact of all the terrorism that is occurring throughout the world and it looks to me that that probably could continue here in the short term, but the easy money to the downside has been made in gold as I think you will start to see a consolidation of the recent downdraft in prices so avoid this market at the current time and look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the March contract settled in New York last Friday at 115.80 a pound while currently trading at 122.75 up nearly 700 points for the trading week having one of the strongest weeks in quite some time bottoming out at the 115 level. As I’ve written about in previous blogs as I think coffee is in the process of bottoming, however at the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a trend to develop as prices are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend currently is mixed. The contract low was hit around the 115 level as prices are getting very cheap in my opinion as we are starting to enter the volatile season as I think we are squeezing blood out of a turnip at these levels, but I will be patient and wait for better chart structure to develop therefore lowering monetary risk as I think over the long haul prices are headed higher. The next major resistance is at 125 which is just an eyelash away as the soft commodity markets except for cotton have rallied over the last several weeks as traders remember in early 2014 a drought hit key coffee growing regions in the country of Brazil sending prices sharply higher in just a matter of weeks.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.04 a pound while currently trading at 15.04 unchanged for the trading week still in a very volatile trade as prices are swinging up and down on a daily basis as the chart still looks bullish in my opinion, however I am sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is poor at the current time. Sugar prices are actually trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average which is one of the only few commodities you can say that about as the trend still remains higher with major resistance at 15.50 as strong demand continues to prop up prices here in the short term coupled with the fact of lower production numbers coming out of Brazil. Sugar prices have rallied around 35% over the last three months as this was a very bearish trend for the several years as prices used to trade in the 30’s in 2011 as that’s how far prices have come down due to over production in Brazil, but that scenario has changed going into 2016 as weather is now the main focus to drive prices higher.
Trend: Higher - Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Mike Seerys Trading Theory
What Does Risk Management Mean To You? I generally tell people that the reason people lose money in commodities is not due to the fact that they are bad at predicting where prices are headed, however they are bad when it comes to losing trades and refusing to take a loss which results for heavy monetary losses that are difficult to come back from. For example if a customer has $100,000 account in my opinion on any given trade he or she should risk 2% – 3% of the account value meaning if you are wrong the worst case scenario is still a $97,000 remaining balance, however what I always see is traders risking ridiculous amounts of money and instead of the 3% stop loss will risk 20% to 30% on any given trade or even higher therefore if you are wrong on two or three trades that $100,000 dollar account could dwindle down to nothing very quickly and I’ve seen it many times throughout my career. What many traders forget to realize is they might have 4 or 5 commodity positions on and if you have too many contracts on all at the same time and all of those trades go against you which is very possible the losses can add up to be staggering so what I am suggesting to you is if you have $100,000 account risk between $2,000 – $3,000 per trade so if you lose on five straight trades the worst case scenario is that your down $15,000 and still have an $85,000 balance which is very possible to still come back from and your still in the game.

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


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Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Crude Oil, Coffee, Sugar and Corn Markets

Last week U.S. retail sales were reported and rose less than expected in October. One of the big surprises was the automobile sector and the decline in the purchases of new cars. All of this weighed on the markets, pushing back the bulls once again. So our trading partner Mike Seery  is back to give our us a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week.

Crude oil futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside hitting a 10 week low as prices settled last Friday in New York at 44.90 while currently trading at 40.50 a barrel down around $4 for the trading week continuing its longer term bearish trend. At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is very poor which means that the 10 day high is too far away risking too much money in my opinion, however keep a close eye on this market as the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade therefore lowering monetary risk. In my opinion it looks to me that prices are going to test the August 24th low of 39.22 as high inventories continue to pressure prices coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar hampering many commodity markets in 2015 and unless OPEC cuts production prices will probably remain on the defensive for some time to come. The weather in much of the United States has been above normal which is putting pressure on heating oil futures because of the lack of demand and therefore putting pressure on crude oil, but we are starting to enter the winter months as that could change very quickly but at the present time the 7/10 day weather forecast remains warm.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Coffee futures in the March contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling in New York last Friday at 121.15 while currently trading at 118.80 down over 200 points for the trading week continuing its short term bearish trend. Prices look to retest the contract low which was hit on September 24th at 117.80 as coffee is acting nonvolatile at the current time as historically speaking coffee is one of the most volatile commodities in the world, but there is very little fresh fundamental news to dictate short term price action. At the current time I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop, however I do think prices are limited to the downside as I think you're starting to squeeze blood out of a turnip as we start to enter the volatile winter season as in 2014 a drought hit the country of Brazil sending prices sharply higher so keep a close eye on this market for a possible bullish pattern to develop in the coming weeks. Coffee prices have been extremely choppy over the last six months as I've had a couple recommendations that fizzled out but as a trader you can't give up because the trend always comes back it's just a matter of time and patience.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 14.46 a pound while currently trading at 15.08 up about 60 points for the trading week as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop and at the current time I’m advising clients to avoid this market. Sugar prices are highly volatile with many sharply higher and sharply lower trading sessions with major resistance at the peak high around 15.50 and support around the three week low at 14.00 which was hit in Monday's trade as production numbers out of Brazil continue to swing prices on a daily basis. Sugar prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is still higher as this has been one of the few commodities that continue to have a bullish trend due to less production in Brazil and key growing regions throughout the world coupled with the fact of very strong demand pushing prices up around 35% from lows hit just 3 months ago. If you’re looking to pick a top I would sell a futures contract at today’s price while placing your stop at 15.55 risking around 45 points or $500 per contract plus slippage and commission, but I am currently involved in other markets with better risk/reward parameters.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.73 a bushel while currently trading at 3.60 down around $.13 for the trading week as I've been recommending a short position from the 3.79 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 3.84, however the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis therefore lowering monetary risk next week. Prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as prices reacted to the USDA crop report which raised carryover and production numbers sending prices to a new contract low so continue to play this to the downside in my opinion as lower prices are ahead. Many of the commodity markets continue to move lower especially crude oil which is also putting pressure on corn prices as I think the next major level of support is 3.50 as volatility is relatively low, but if you have missed this trade move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend. At the current time I’m recommending many short positions including soybeans and corn as I think oversupply issues will continue to keep a lid on prices for the rest of 2015.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

What does Mike mean when he talks about chart structure and why does he think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade?

Mike tells us "I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss."

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


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