Understanding Market Dynamics To Identify Changing Trends

Chris sits down with Craig Hemke of Sprott Money to talk about where the markets may be going. Topics and questions we cover include the following:

• What are the best assets to be in as we move into September and the coming Fall season? 
• If Crude and Gold are holding their value, what does this indicate may happen to the overall markets next?
• What does it mean if Copper continues to decline?
• As yields go higher, is there potential for Bonds (TLT) to test new lows?
• Should investors who have the buy and hold strategy being deployed in their portfolios begin to consider a different strategy?
• What will turn a fear of missing out (FOMO) into outright fear in the market?
• Looking at the Gold chart, what levels should we be watching now for support and resistance?

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and More

The three major indexes closed higher on Friday July 7th after this weeks employment report showed that 222,000 jobs were added in June marking the second largest job haul of the year and underscoring that the labor market remains healthy. If the futures markets renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are going to be hard to project.

So there is nobody better time than now to ask than our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give you a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week. Mike has been a senior analyst for over 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 46.35 a barrel while currently trading at 44.75 down about a $1.60 for the trading week despite the fact that this week's EIA report showed a 6.3 million barrel draw down as the short term and longer term trend remains weak. The United States continues to increase production, and that is the main problem as the Trump administration wants to become a major exporter. I'm not involved in oil, but I still have a bearish bias to the downside as prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the trend is lower as there were rumors that Russia might be against production cut sending prices lower to end the trading week. The commodity markets, in general, remain choppy and this is not the same oil market from 10 years ago with the U.S. changing the dynamics as we continue to produce more and more. It looks to me that production will increase over the next several years as OPEC is not nearly as powerful as they used to be which is a good thing for U.S. security. I still think prices will test the contract low which was hit on June 21st around $42 in the coming weeks.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the August contract hit a 2 month low currently trading at 1,215 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,242 down over $25 for the trading week continuing its bearish trend breaking the May 9th low of 1,217 as it looks to me that prices as I've stated in previous blogs prices are headed towards the 1,200 level. The monthly employment number came out today stating that we added 220,000 new jobs sending the stock market higher once again as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals & into the equity market. I think this trend will continue with the possibility that we will retest the January 5th low around 1,189 as this market is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis. Gold prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as silver and platinum prices continue to move lower as well. The trend is your friend in the commodity markets and if you are short stay short & place the proper stop loss as I see no reason to own gold at the current time. The U.S dollar is near a 10 month low coupled with major problems with North Korea, however that is still not able to support gold as that tells you how weak this market actually has become.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the September contract are lower by about $0.55 this Friday afternoon currently trading at 15.45 an ounce hitting a 15 month low after settling last Friday at 16.62 down about $1.20 for the trading week and trading lower 5 out of the last 6 trading sessions as the precious metals remain on the defensive. In my opinion it looks to me that prices will retest the March 2016 low around 14.78 as all the interest is in the stock market as we added another 220,000 jobs as the monthly employment report was released sending the stock market sharply higher and the precious metals sharply lower as this trend is for real to the downside. Silver prices are trading far below their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you this trend is lower and is getting stronger on a weekly basis as I see no reason to own any of the precious metals at the present time. Volatility in silver has certainly expanded over the last week as we've had two 50 cent down days with larger volume than normal which is not a good sign if you're bullish as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as catching a falling knife can be very dangerous and if you are short stay short as you are on the right side of this trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the September contract are trading right near a three week high after settling last Friday in New York at 125.35 a pound while currently trading at 128.80 up about 300 points for the trading week. Coffee is now trading above its 20 day moving average, but still below its 100 day which stands at 136.60 as the trend remains mixed. I am keeping a close eye on this market to the upside as the agricultural sectors have all come alive as it looks to me that short term bottoms are in place as the chart structure is starting to improve with the 10 day low standing at 123.30. It will improve on a daily basis as the spike bottom which happened on June 22nd at 115.50 looks to be the short term low in my opinion. Volatility in coffee has come to a crawl once again which is a good thing therefore lowering the monetary risk as all of the bad news has already been priced into coffee & many of the soft commodities so keep a close eye on this for a bullish position possibly in next week's trade as this sleeping giant will awaken once again just like what happened in the grain market.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Sugar, , Cotton, Wheat, Soybean and more....Just Click Here!

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and More

The three major indexes all closed higher on Friday, setting the stage for a steady or higher opening on Monday. But will our major commodities join them in a possible bull market run this week? There is nobody better to ask than our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give you a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week. Mike has been a senior analyst for over 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract have traded higher for the 7th consecutive trading session are currently at 45.34 after settling last Friday in New York at 43.01 a barrel up about $2.30 for the trading week right at a 2 week high. I have not been involved in crude oil for quite some time. The energy sector had a positive week with the U.S dollar down around 150 points helping support prices, and crude is now trading above its 20 day moving average for the 1st time in awhile, but still below its 100 day and this trend remains mixed so avoid this sector. Oil prices bottomed out on June 21st around 42.05, and I'm still not bullish the energy sector. I still think lower prices are ahead as U.S rig counts continue to increase on a weekly basis as the U.S will become a net exporter which means we will rely less on Mideast oil which is a great thing for U.S security and a great thing for prices. Gasoline and heating oil which are byproducts of crude oil also have rallied this week, and they remain very bearish as gas prices at the pump for the Fourth of July weekend are the lowest in 12 years. I paid a $1.96 just the other day.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,256 an ounce while currently trading at 1,243 down about $13 for the trading week. I'm currently not involved in this market, but I do think lower prices are ahead despite the fact that the U.S dollar was down about 150 points this week, but was still unable to lend any support to gold prices. Gold is still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower, if you are short a futures contract place the stop loss at the 10 day high which stands at 1,260. The chart structure is solid with the next level of support at 1,235, and if that is broken, I think we could retest the 1,200 level rather quickly. I do not have any precious metal recommendations. I still believe that they remain weak except for copper prices which have broken out to the upside. Gold remains relatively nonvolatile over the last several weeks, and we need some fresh fundamental news such as interest rate hikes or global geopolitical problems to start pushing prices in either direction.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Silver futures in the September contract are currently trading at 16.65 an ounce unchanged this Friday afternoon after settling last Friday in New York at 16.70 unchanged for the week with extremely low volatility. Prices have nothing fundamentally speaking to push prices up or down at present. Silver is still trading below it's 20 and 100 day moving average as this trend remains to the downside despite the U.S dollar being down about 150 points which help support silver prices, but this market remains weak as there's very little demand despite historically low prices. The next major level support is 16.40 and if that is broken prices could retest the May 9th low of 16.12. The commodity markets remain weak despite small rallies across the board. The only exception is the wheat market which is being propelled by exceptional droughts in the Dakotas sending massive volatility into that market. Silver prices have remained extremely choppy in 2017 as we have been trading between 16/18 for many months so I'd avoid this market in my opinion & look at other markets that are beginning to trend with higher volatility.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Coffee futures settled last Friday in New York at 123.00 a pound while currently trading at 126 up about 300 points for the trading week right at a two week high as a possible spike bottom may have occurred on June 22nd at the 115.50 level. Prices are now trading above their 20 day, but still below their 100 day moving average as this trend remains mixed in my opinion. Coffee has entered their frost season in Brazil and rumors of colder temperatures have pushed up prices in recent days. This market has been bearish over the last several months, but everything comes to an end, and I avoided this market. I wrote about in many previous blogs I was not going to take a short position as I'm still looking at a possible bullish position if prices hit a four week high as the chart structure is solid. My only soft commodity recommendation is a bearish position in the cotton market as traders await the highly anticipated USDA crop report which will be released at 11 o'clock today. It will certainly send high volatility across the board so avoid this market and look at other scenarios with a better risk/reward scenario. I still think coffee prices remain choppy over the next several weeks.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Dow Jones Industrial, Cotton and more....Just Click Here!

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Sugar and More

It's time once again to check in with our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 45.83 a barrel while currently trading at 44.65 down over $1 for the trading week testing lows we haven't seen since November 2016. I'm not involved in this market, but I do think lower prices are ahead for the entire energy sector. At present, my only energy recommendation is a short natural gas position as complex oversupply issues continue to put pressure on prices in the short term. We are still trading far below the 20 and 100 day moving average, and that's telling you that the short term trend is lower in natural gas. The next major level of support is all the way down at the 42 level as Rig counts in the United States continue to increase supply, so if you are short a futures contract stay short & place the proper stop loss as I think lower prices are ahead. Gasoline and heating oil are also at fresh contract lows putting pressure on crude oil, and there is nothing right or positive to say about this sector at present. Today's slight rally across the board is just a dead cat bounce in my opinion and is due to oversold conditions.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Natural gas futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.03 while currently trading at 3.03 unchanged for the trading week despite Thursday's trade rallying 12 points due to a bullish inventory report. I recommended a short position from the 3.17 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high standing at 3.10 as the chart structure is outstanding. Natural gas prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average which tells you that the trend is lower as we retested 4 month lows in Wednesday's trade. Stay short as mild temperatures in the 7/10 day forecast for Midwestern part of the United States could put pressure back on this market as the energy sector looks very weak in my opinion. Natural gas prices are just an eyelash away from getting stopped out as this trade has experienced very low volatility since the entry point, but if we are stopped out we will move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the trends are coming back in the commodity sectors which is a great thing to see, but stay short as who knows what Monday's price action will bring.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Gold prices settled last Friday in New York at 1,271 an ounce while currently trading at 1,256 down about $15 for the trading week and topping out at the 1,300 level. The Federal Reserve announced that they raised interest rates a .25 point and plan on raising interest rates further down the road and this sent gold prices to a three week low. I am not involved in any of the precious metals as they have been incredibly choppy in 2017 and the monetary risk and the risk/reward has not met my criteria as prices are now trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average. I'm advising clients to avoid this sector and gold at the present time. The commodity markets, in general, remain weak in my opinion except for a select few with the stock market continuing to move higher taking money flows out of the gold and moving them into the Dow Jones once again. I think that trend will continue despite the terrorist attacks happening on a weekly basis coupled with uncertainty worldwide. Prices seem to have one more leg lower to the downside with a possible retest of 1,215 in my opinion. Silver prices this week also went into the negative as those prices remain extremely choppy as well, but one day the trends will come back in the metals so keep a close eye on this market & wait for the chart structure to improve.
Trend: Mixed - Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the October contract are trading lower for the 6th consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 14.47 a pound while currently trading at 13.60 down nearly 80 points and continuing its bearish trend. I'm not sure anyone knows how low prices could go. The next significant level of support is around the February 2016 low of 12.45, and if that is broken it could retest the August 2015 lows around 10.00 that's how bearish this commodity is. This is due to overproduction and a very weak Brazilian Real which continues to put pressure on anything grown in Brazil. Sugar prices are trading far under their 20 and 100 day moving average and this trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis. I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as that would be counter trend trading and trying to pick a bottom is very dangerous over the long haul. The soft commodities still look very weak as the agricultural sectors except for a couple continue to head lower so, if you do have a short futures position stay short & place the proper stop loss as you are on the right side of this trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Dow Jones Industrial, Cotton and more....Just Click Here!

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Silver, Coffee and More

Both the SP500 [key reversal down] and NASDAQ [below the 20 day moving average] closed sharply lower on Friday while the Dow managed to close higher extending the rally off April's low into uncharted territory. This will make upside targets hard to project for the Dow.

So let's get ready for this weeks trading with a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures settled last Friday in New York at 47.66 a barrel while currently trading at 45.55 down about $2 for the trading week, but still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as prices are looking to retest the May 5th low of 44.13 in my opinion. The longer term and short term trend is to the downside as large supplies continue to keep a lid on prices. Gasoline and heating oil also continue to move lower, and my only recommendation in the energy sector is short the natural gas market at this time. The chart structure in oil is poor as the 10 day high is around $52 which is over $6 away. I'm currently waiting for the monetary risk to be lowered and I am looking at a short position possibly in next week's trade. There are concerns about gasoline demand which has also pushed oil lower over the last several weeks, but this market has been very choppy in 2017 as the volatility in the commodity markets are starting to rise once again as the summer months are upon us and historically speaking this is when you see large price swings up or down.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Natural gas futures settled last Friday in New York at 2.99 while currently trading at 3.04 up 5 points in an extremely low volatile trading week. I've been recommending a short position from the 3.17 level, and if you took the trade place the stop loss in Monday's trade at 3.26. Tuesday it will be lowered to 3.17 as the chart structure is becoming outstanding. For the bearish momentum to continue prices have to break the February 28th low of 2.88 which is still quite a distance away so stay short and continue to place the proper stop loss as the trend is still lower in my opinion. Prices are still underneath their 20 and 100 day moving average looking for some fresh fundamental moves to put some volatility back into this market. The energy sector, in general, continues its bearish momentum this week as oversupply issues continue to hamper this market as production levels in natural gas are increasing in 2017 and 2018. Higher temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States are expected this weekend and that has helped prop up prices here in the short term, but the 7/10 day forecast still has average temperatures, so let's see what develops next week. I'm still looking at adding more contracts to the downside.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday at 17.52 an ounce while currently trading at 17.28 trading lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session after topping out at 6 week highs earlier in the week around 17.74. I'm currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy in my opinion. Silver prices are trading right at their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average as the U.S dollar has rallied somewhat over the last couple days putting pressure on gold and silver prices. The chart structure is poor therefore the monetary risk is too high for me to enter into this market at this time. The next major level of support is right at the 17 level, and for this market to continue its bullish momentum, we would have to break 17.75. Volatility has come upon us once again which is excellent to see in my opinion. Many of the commodity markets remain mixed as they are not trading in unison and that's what I'd like to see occur once again like we experienced in years past.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor - Improving

Coffee futures in the July contract is currently trading at 128.25 a pound after settling last Friday in New York at 125.25 up about 300 points for the trading week. I'm currently not involved in this market. However, I will not initiate a short position as I think coffee prices are cheap and I'm looking at a bullish position once a true breakout occurs. Coffee futures are still trading under their 20 day and 100 day moving average which stands at 139 which is quite a distance away. However, the chart structure is rather solid at the present time, and the volatility is really low as prices have been grinding lower. At the present time, we are in the frost season in the country of Brazil which is the largest producer in the world as colder temperatures are expected this weekend, but no frost as the agricultural markets are starting to stabilize despite the fact of the Brazilian Real remaining very weak against the U.S dollar. If you take a look at the daily chart, there is major support around the 125 level which was hit in the last 5 trading sessions and unable to break. I do believe we are finding support as prices are bottoming out in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Sugar, Cotton, Corn and more....Just Click Here!

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and More

The NASDAQ 100 closed higher for the seventh day in a row on Friday as investors struggled to find fresh reasons to push shares to records after a six session winning streak ahead of a holiday weekend. Both the SP500 and Dow closed slightly lower on Friday as they both consolidated some of this week's gains ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday. The high range closes in the SP500 and Dow set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading.

So let's get ready for this weeks trading with a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude Oil futures in the July contract are trading lower for the 2nd consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 50.67 a barrel while currently trading at 48.82 down nearly $2 for the trading week right at a two week low. Crude oil has remained incredibly choppy in 2017, and I'm not involved in this market. Traders were disappointed with OPEC's decision in Thursday's trade that sold off oil nearly $3 a barrel as Rig counts in the United States continue to climb. Oil's fundamentals remain bearish with prices still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower. I am advising clients to avoid this commodity at present. I don't have any trade recommendations for the 1st time in over two decades because of how choppy the commodity markets are presently. However, things will change as we enter the summer months when historically speaking volatility comes back and the trends do as well.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor - Choppy

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Gold futures in the June contract are trading higher by $10 this Friday afternoon after settling last Friday at 1,253 while currently trading at 1,267 up about $14 for the trading week and hitting a four week high. Gold is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the upside as a weaker U.S dollar coupled with a terrorist attack this week helped propel prices higher. The next major level of resistance is at 1,275 & if that is broken, I would have to think that prices will retest the April 17th high of 1,297 as this is one of the only few bullish trends out of the commodity sectors. I am not involved in this market at present as the chart structure remains poor. The U.S dollar is right near a seven month low as that has certainly helped gold prices come off recent lows as that trend seems to be strong to the downside. The stock market hit all time highs once again in Thursday's trade having very little effect on gold prices as money flows seem to be going into both sectors which is very unusual, but can happen periodically with investors being interested in both sectors. In my opinion, I still believe gold prices are limited to the upside as all the excitement is in the equity markets, but there are so many problems worldwide right now that prices are supported in the short term.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor - Choppy

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.79 an ounce while currently trading at 17.30 up about $0.50 for the trading week right near a four week high and this market remains very choppy in my opinion. Silver prices are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at 17.43 which is just an eyelash away with the next major level of resistance at the 18/18.50 level. Terrorism throughout the world and tensions with North Korea have bolstered the precious metals in recent weeks including silver prices. Silvers chart structure is poor, meaning the monetary risk is too high and the trend is too choppy to enter into a new trade, so be patient as we could be involved over the next couple of weeks. It's time to look at other markets that are beginning to trend as there are few and far between. Silver historically speaking is an inflationary commodity, but at present inflation is still under 2% in the United States with many of the agricultural markets near recent lows once again. Silver has had a hard time sustaining any real type of rally in 2017.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor - Choppy

Coffee futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 132.10 a pound while currently trading at 130.00 down about 200 points for the trading week continuing its slow grinding bearish momentum to the downside. I'm not involved in this market and will not take a short position and I'm advising clients to avoid coffee at present. The agricultural markets continue to look weak and the Brazilian Real is the main culprit and has put pressure on sugar, coffee, orange juice and soybean prices as these markets all look to head lower in my opinion. However, I do think the downside is limited as that is the reason I am not going short. Coffee's trading under its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as large production numbers are coming out of the country of Brazil which is the biggest producer in the world as a weak currency and abundant supply continues to keep a lid on prices. The chart structure in coffee is still is very solid and as I've written about in previous blogs, I'm interested in a bullish position if prices break the 137.75 area which is still quite a distance away so keep a close eye on this market as the volatility will not stay this low for much longer.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Sugar, Cotton, Corn and more....Just Click Here!

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, NASDAQ 100 and More

Trading for the week of May 8th through May 12th ended with the Dow and SP500 indexes closing lower as investors reacted to an uncertain political environment stemming from President Donald Trump's firing of former Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey. Meanwhile, retail sales and consumer prices rose in the latest month, albeit by a slower pace than had been expected, offering a mixed picture of the state of the economy. The NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday, the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when next weeks trading begins.

So as we like to say....no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the June contract are trading higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session after settling last Friday at 46.22 while currently trading at 48.00 a barrel and I'm currently not involved in this market. Oil prices had a spike bottom last Friday which was May 5th at 43.76 & has rallied about $4. This market remains choppy just like all the other commodity sectors. However, if you are short a futures contract, I would place the stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 49.32 as prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower. OPEC has come back into the news possibly cutting production once again to try to prop up prices as oversupply issues are the biggest problem with this sector as every time prices rally rig counts in the United States increase, therefore, putting pressure back on prices. Prices have surged over the last several days off of the API report which showed a larger draw down of crude oil supplies, but basically, I think a lot of this was short covering as prices were in oversold territory.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,226 an ounce while currently trading at 1,230 down about $4 for the trading week and is still hovering right near a 7 week low. I'm currently sitting on the sidelines at present. As I've written about in previous blogs, I remain bearish on gold, and I think the stock market will continue to move higher. If you are short a futures contract, I would place your stop above the 10 day high which stands at 1,272 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. Gold prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that the short term trend is lower as volatility is relatively low. I don't expect that to continue for much longer as generally speaking volatility starts to increase in the summer months for the commodity markets. The precious metals have been on the defensive over the last couple of months as silver and platinum are also right near multi month lows as the commodity markets remain extremely choppy and have been over the last 6 months.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor - Improving

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.27 an ounce while currently trading at 16.45 up about $0.20 for the trading week and it's still right near a 5 month low as prices have rebounded due to oversold conditions in my opinion. At the current time, I'm not involved in silver as prices have dropped over $2 from their April 17th high and the chart structure is very poor. Silver futures are trading far under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside and prices are probably looking to retest the December 23rd low around 15.84. The precious metals remain weak because all of the interest remains in the U.S stock market which is right near all time highs once again. Silver prices have been extremely choppy over the last 6 months rallying several dollars and then selling off several dollars as that has been the case with many of the commodity sectors. In years past we had terrific trends, but that has not been the case in 2017 as the risk/reward is not in favor at the present time so move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

The Nasdaq 100 in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 5648 while currently trading at 5678 up another 30 points hitting another all time high this week. I'm not involved in this commodity. However, I am very bullish the stock market, and I've written about this in many previous blogs, I do think higher prices are ahead. The NASDAQ 100 is trading far above it's 20 and 100 day moving average being propelled by Apple Computer. Apple is up another $2 hitting another all time high as the tech sector is still on fire. I'm certainly not recommending any bearish position as this is the strongest trend out of all of the markets at the current time. I do think the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 will continue to follow. However, the NASDAQ is the strongest of all of the stock indices and clearly is the leader to the upside. Fundamentally speaking this market has the perfect situation occurring with extremely low interest rates coupled with outstanding earnings and a Trump administration that is pro business so who knows how high prices can go, but in my opinion, they are going much higher so if you are in a bullish position stay long.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Wheat, Sugar, Corn and more....Just Click Here!

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, NASDAQ 100 and More

Trading for the week of May 1st through May 5th ended with the SP500 hitting a new record high on a rebound in U.S. job growth, U.S. non-farm payrolls grew by 211,000 jobs last in April. After plummeting a day earlier crude oil and energy prices rebounded on news that Saudi Arabia and Russia are ready to join in on OPEC production cuts.

So as we like to say....no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the June contract are up 60 cents this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 46.10 a barrel breaking the low that was hit on March 27th at 47.63 this week. I think prices could re-test the November low around the $42 level as the trend remains to the downside. Crude oil prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as the precious metals & the entire energy sector continue to be under pressure over the last several weeks. My only recommendation is a short natural gas position. The chart structure in crude oil is not that great, and I will wait for the monetary risk to be lowered. I'm certainly not advising any type of bullish position as this markets trend is negative and coupled with the fact of very poor fundamentals as worldwide supplies are massive as now the problem could be waning demand. Oil prices traded above $53 in mid April as prices have now dropped about $7 a barrel rather quickly, so let's keep a close eye on this market for a possible short position in the coming days ahead.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the June contract are unchanged this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 1,228 an ounce after settling last week at 1,268 down about $60 and continuing its bearish momentum. I was looking at a short position. However, I did not take the trade as the chart structure and the risk did not meet my criteria to enter into a trade. I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as I still think lower prices are ahead. Gold futures have now hit a 7 week low trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average. I will look for some type of price rally before entering a short position as the next major level of support is all the way down to the 1,200 level with silver and platinum hitting recent lows helping to put pressure on gold prices. If the 1,200 level is broken we could retest the contract lows that were hit on December 15th 2016 at the 1,130 level. I see no reason to own gold at present as the stock market continues to move higher on a weekly basis as that's where all the action is at the moment.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.26 while currently trading at 16.33 an ounce. It's down nearly $1 for the trading week and selling off about $2.40 since the April 17th high around 18.72. That was a 5 month high and prices have just absolutely fallen out of bed. I have not been involved in silver for several months as the chart structure is terrible at the present time therefore the monetary risk does not meet my criteria, and it looks to me that prices could retest the December 23rd low around 15.84. Prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the short term trend is lower as money flows are coming out of the precious metals and into the equity markets. The volatility in silver and many of the other commodity sectors is starting to rise as we enter the volatile summer season. I'm not involved in any precious metals at the current time as I was stopped out of copper earlier in the week.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

The NASDAQ 100 in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 5580 while currently trading at 5637 up nearly 60 points and continuing to hit record highs on a weekly basis. I'm not involved in this market, but I am bullish and I do think prices are headed higher. If you're long a futures contract, I would place the stop-loss under the 10 day low standing at 5471 as the risk is still about $3,300 per mini contract plus slippage & commission, but I'm certainly not recommending any type of short position as this market has good momentum to the upside. Obamacare looks to be on its last legs with the House of Representatives passing phase 1 of the new healthcare bill which is also bullish this market. I think that the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 will soon follow, but the tech industry is on fire with outstanding earnings almost across the board with Google and Amazon continuing to propel this market higher. The NASDAQ is trading far above it's 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher. Low-interest rates and great optimism about future growth in the United States continue to push prices higher.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, NASDAQ 100 and More

Trading for the week of April 24th through April 28th ended with the 3 major indexes again closing lower. The markets appear overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June contracts extend this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard...or impossible to project.

So as we like to say....no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Natural gas futures in the June contract are currently trading at 3.28 after settling last Friday in New York at 3.19. I have been recommending a short position from the 3.17 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high standing at 3.33. The original risk was around $800 per 2 mini contracts plus slippage and commission. The chart structure in natural gas is outstanding at the present time as prices are above their 20 and 100 day moving average. Colder temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States are pushing up prices here the last several days, but I will remain short & place the proper stop loss. Many of the commodity markets have experienced incredibly choppy trends in 2017. However, we are entering the summer months and historically speaking the trends and the volatility come back, so we will have to be patient. Natural gas supplies are still extremely high and that is why this market has been in a bearish trend for several years.
Trend: Lower- Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,289 an ounce while currently trading at 1,267 down about $20 for the week. I'm currently sitting on the sidelines as prices have now hit a 2 week low and my bias is to the downside. I am bullish the stock market & I think money flows are going to continue to come out of the precious metals and into the equity market and I'm looking at a short position in the next week or so. Gold prices are trading under their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average topping out around the 1,300 level 2 weeks ago. Prices have been in rally mode in 2017 due to geopolitical tensions throughout the world. I've stated in many previous blogs these always seem to fade away and that's exactly what's happening right now as silver prices continue their decline and I think that will start to put pressure on gold prices here in the short term. If you are bearish gold, my recommendation would be to sell at today's price level while placing the stop loss above 1,300 as an exit strategy. I will continue to sit on the sidelines as I'm waiting for better chart structure. Therefore, the monetary risk would be lowered as the risk is too high in my opinion at this point time. However, I am certainly bearish gold.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the July contract have traded lower 9 out of the last 10 trading sessions after settling last Friday in New York at 17.93 while currently trading at 17.22 down over $0.70 for the trading week hitting a 6 week low. I'm not currently involved in this market as the chart structure is terrible. Therefore, the monetary risk is too high. Silver prices are now trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average with major support back down at the 17 level as the equity markets in the United States continue to hit all time highs. Money flows are coming out of the precious metals so avoid this market as there really is no trend. At the current time, my only recommendation in the precious metals is a short a copper position. I'm negative on gold, but not involved as I still think stocks move higher. Therefore, the precious metals should continue to drift lower. Avoid this market at the present time & look at other trends with better chart structure and a better risk/reward scenario as the trends in 2017 have been tough to come by.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

The NASDAQ 100 settled last Friday in Chicago at 5442 while currently trading at 5581 up about 140 points for the week hitting another record high this week. As I've talked about in previous blogs, I'm not involved in this market. However, I'm extremely bullish and still think higher prices are ahead as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as this trend is very strong. The problem with this market is the chart structure is poor and there is a price gap around the 5460 level. I'm hoping that the price gets filled before entering into a bullish position as prices are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that this trend is strong and who knows how high prices can go. If you take a look at the Dow Jones and the S&P 500, they have not hit all time highs. I think both of those markets will continue to catch up to the NASDAQ as money flows are finally coming out of the precious metals and into the equity market as the Trump administration tax plans are finally starting to be released. That is extremely bullish for companies in the United States as now it could be a fair game worldwide for the first time in decades. Remember Apple Computer did $80 billion last year in profits and if you take a 20% reduction in taxes which is an increase of $16 billion for one company per year. That is why you see these markets explode to the upside and this will continue in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Gold, Silver, Copper, Sugar and More

Trading for the week of April 17th through April 21st ended with the 3 major indexes closing lower. This is a tough market to call right now as the different markets are giving mixed signals on the general direction of the economy and each individual market.

So as we like to say....no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Gold futures in the June contract are currently trading at 1,286 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,288 basically unchanged for the trading week as I am not involved in the gold market as prices remain right near contract highs due to tensions between North Korea and the United States coupled with the fact of a weaker U.S dollar in recent weeks. Gold prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as we are ending the week on a positive note up about $4 as 1,300 is the main resistance and if that is broken I think we could go to levels before the U. S. election around 1,330 an ounce. At the current time I don't have any precious metal recommendations as silver is right near a 2 week low, but there is demand for gold as there is so much uncertainty in the world at this time and if you are bullish a futures position I would place the stop loss under the 10 day low standing at 1,248 which is still $40 away as the chart structure is not solid at the present time, as I do expect volatility to increase in the coming weeks as well.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

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Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 18.58 an ounce while currently trading at 17.98 down about $0.60 for the trading week as I've been discussing the May contract, but that is near expiration so I will focus on the July contract going forward as I'm not involved in this market at present. Silver prices are trading lower for the 5th consecutive day and if you are long futures contracts I would still place the stop under the 10 day low standing at 17.80 which is just an eyelash way as this market remains very choppy in my opinion. Silver prices are trading under their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average really going nowhere over the last several months as I do not have any trade recommendations in the precious metals at the current time. The U.S dollar continues to flip flop up and down on a daily basis and that's why you're seeing the choppy commodity markets as gold prices have also stalled out around the 1,300 level as the precious metals had been rallying due to a possible conflict with North Korea & the United States which now seems to be diminishing on a daily basis.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

Copper futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.5860 a pound while currently trading at 2.5470 down about 400 points for the trading week right near a 3 month low. At present I'm not involved in this market, but I do think lower prices are ahead and if you are short place the stop at the 10 day high which in Monday's trade stands at 2.66 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade, therefore, the monetary risk will be lowered as I'm still looking at a short position on any type of rally. Copper prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as there is major support at the 2.50 level and if that is broken, I think we could head substantially lower as the commodity markets are having a hard time sustaining any real bullish momentum. Copper prices were trading around the 2.10 level just let last October but with the Trump administration's possible stimulus plan sending copper prices to around the 2.80 level around quickly as now were kind of a no man's land, but the trend is lower so stay short.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Sugar futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.57 a pound while currently trading at 16.38 down about 20 points for the trading week still stuck in a 2 week consolidation as prices are still right near a one year low. I'm not currently involved in sugar ,but if you are short as I do have clients who are involved in this marketplace your stop loss above the 10 day high at 17.13 as the next major level of support is the contract low which was hit on April 5th around 16.20 & if that is broken I think prices could head down to the low 15's rather quickly. Sugar prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that the trend is to the downside as overproduction and lack of demand continue to keep a lid on prices as the soft commodities still look weak except for cotton prices. At present, I only have one soft recommendation & that is a bearish trade in the orange juice market, but I am bearish sugar as I do think lower prices are ahead as the chart structure is excellent at present, therefore, allowing you to place a tight stop loss.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Silver, Copper, Coffee, Sugar and More

Trading for the week of April 10th through April 14th ended with the Dow leading indexes closing lower as markets volatility rears it's ugly head due to fed spooked financials and weaker transports.

So no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Silver futures in the May contract are up 27 cents at 18.55 an ounce trading higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session breaking major resistance as I will be recommending a bullish position if prices close above 18.50 while then placing the stop loss under the 10-day low which was also Monday's low around 17.73 risking around $800 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. The chart structure is relatively solid at present as the next major level of resistance is last November's high around $19 an ounce as gold and silver prices have broken out to the upside. The 10 year note is significantly higher once again hitting a 6 month high as interest rates have been heading lower in recent weeks, and that is bullish the precious metals and commodities in general as there seems to be what they call a flight to quality which affects the bond and precious metals market as investors park their money as a so called safe haven. Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher so let's look at playing this to the upside as the risk/reward are in your favor in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

Get Chris Vermeulen's Short & Long Term Gold Projections

Copper futures in the May contract are higher by 250 points this Thursday in New York currently trading at 2.5700 a pound after hitting a 3 month low in yesterday's trade as I'm looking at a short position, however the chart structure is poor as the 10 day high stands around 2.71 as the risk/reward is not in your favor at present. However, I am certainly not recommending any type of bullish trade as the trend clearly is to the downside. I will wait for the chart structure to improve which could take a couple more days as prices are now trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend has turned negative in the short term with the next major level of support down to 2.50 which was tested back in December 2016 on multiple occasions only to rally every single time. This is a unique situation in the precious metals as bullish trends continue in gold and silver, however we have a bearish trend in copper and that can happen at certain times due to the fact that gold and silver are used as a flight to quality where copper is an industrial metal so keep a close eye on this market for a short position.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the July contract are trading higher by 100 points at 141.25 in the July contract up in a slow manner with low volatility over the last several months as it looks to me that coffee prices are bottoming out in the short term. I have written about coffee many times in the past as I'm currently not involved in this market and haven't been for several months as I think prices are limited to the downside as it looks to me that the 138 level has held as prices are now at a 3 week high. Coffee prices are now trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at 148 as that is the critical level for the bullish momentum to continue in my opinion so keep a close eye on this market to the upside. At present, I am recommending a short position in orange juice and in cotton and I am also bearish sugar. However, coffee prices are starting enter to enter the month of May with the chance of a frost occurring in Brazil, so there could be a price premium put into this market to the upside and if a frost does occur prices move substantially higher & extremely quickly like they did in 1994.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.77 a pound while currently trading at 16.83 in a lackluster holiday trading week as tomorrow is Good Friday as the markets will be closed. I have not been involved in the sugar market, but I have remained bearish over quite some time. I have clients that are short and if you are in this market to the downside place your stop loss above the 10 day high standing at 17.18 which is just an eyelash away as prices actually traded as high as 17.16 earlier in the trading session. Many of the commodity markets have reacted to the positive side over the last several days due to the fact that bond interest rates in the United States have been going lower and that is supporting prices, however if you're short, continue to place the proper stop and don't 2nd guess as I think that's the kiss of death over the course of time. Sugar futures are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the trend is lower, but for this market to resume its bearish trend the 16 level has to be breached in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Gold, Coffee, Sugar, Copper and More

Trading for the week of March 27th through March 31st ended with the SP500 and Dow indexes closing slightly lower as markets consolidated this week's rally. This leaves markets neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term and the same goes for the NASDAQ 100.

So no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday at 1,251 an ounce while currently trading at 1,247 in a very nonvolatile trading week right near major resistance as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the short term trend is higher. At present, I am not, involved in the precious metals as the U.S dollar continues to flip flop which had made the commodity markets basically go sideways over the last several months. For the gold rally to continue in my opinion prices, have to break major resistance around 1,268 which is still about $20 away as the U.S stock market continues to hover near all time highs which generally is a negative towards gold prices. Gold prices bottomed out last month around the 1,200 level as that's when the Federal Reserve stated that they might slow down on raising interest rates sending prices back up towards the upper end of the trading range, however prices still remain choppy over the last several months so wait for a true trend to develop as there are very few markets that have strong trends at the current time.
Trend: Mixed - Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

Get Chris Vermeulen's Short & Long Term Gold Projections

Coffee futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 137.60 a pound while currently trading at 138.50 in a very nonvolatile trading week as I am not involved in coffee at present as I'm waiting for a breakout to occur as the chart structure has improved tremendously due to the fact that prices continue to go nowhere. Coffee prices continue to trade under their 20 day moving average as the 100 day stands at 147 as I'm very surprised at how low the volatility is as historically speaking coffee is one of the most explosive commodities in the world with huge price swings and huge risk as I don't see this continuing for much longer. Ideal weather conditions in the country of Brazil continue to keep a lid on prices as Brazil is the largest producer in the world and also the largest producer of many commodities in the world as we are starting to enter the frost season which is about 5 weeks away & certainly will send volatility back into this market, but at the present time look at other markets. In my opinion, I do believe prices are limited to the downside as eventually I do think higher prices are ahead, but there is very little fundamental news to push prices in either direction.
Trend: Mixed - Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.71 a pound while currently trading at 16.78 down nearly 100 points for the trading week continuing its bearish momentum as I am not involved in this commodity at present, but do have clients who are short a futures position and if that is the case place your stop above the 10 day high which now stands at 18.17. Sugar prices are trading well below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as prices are retesting the May 2016 lows and I do think there's a possibility that we could even go as low as 12.50 which was hit in February 2016 as this market remains bearish in my opinion so stay short. The chart structure will not improve for another week so you're going to have to accept the monetary risk as overproduction and lack of demand continue to put pressure on sugar prices here in the short term as I still do believe lower prices are ahead, however, if you have missed the trade like I did move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the risk/reward is not in your favor.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Copper futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.63 a pound while currently trading at 2.65 as I was recommending a bearish position from around 2.61 getting stopped out in Thursday's trade around the 2.70 level taking the loss and moving on as this market remains choppy. Copper prices are trading right at their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as prices hit a 3 week high following the stock market which is hovering right near at all time highs as the NASDAQ 100 did hit all time highs as I was also stopped out of that trade as I have no precious metal recommendations at the current time. The chart structure in copper is relatively solid as we could be involved once again in the next couple of weeks so keep a close eye on this market as it still looks expensive.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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The Bear Market in Commodities Is Over…Here’s How Casey Analysts Are Cashing In

By Justin Spittler

It’s official. The bear market in commodities is over. If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know commodities have been in a crushing bear market for more than five years. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks 22 different commodities, has plunged 58% since April 2011.

In January, it hit its lowest level since 1999. Then, commodity prices took off. According to the Financial Times, 15 out of the 22 commodities that make up the Bloomberg Commodity Index are up on the year. The price of oil is up 85% since February. Sugar is up 81% since August. Soybeans are up 33% since March.

The index is up 11%. It’s off to its best start to any year since 2008. And it’s up 21% since mid-January.
According to the popular definition, a bull market begins when a stock, commodity, or index rises 20% from a low. By that measure, commodities are “officially” in a bull market.

You can see how commodities have bottomed in the chart below:

For months, we’ve been saying commodities were close to a bottom..…
The 5-plus year bear market in commodities has slammed the world’s largest miners. According to accounting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers, the world’s 40 largest publicly traded miners lost a combined $27 billion last year. To survive, commodity companies have cut spending to the bone. They laid off hundreds of thousands of workers. They sold parts of their business and abandoned projects. Some companies even cut their prized dividends.

This is classic behavior of a bottom..…
As you may know, commodities are cyclical. They go through big booms and busts. That’s because commodities like copper, natural gas, and oil have unique supply/demand dynamics. For example, when oil prices get too low, many companies that produce oil go out of business. Also, when oil prices are cheap, folks are likely to use more of it. You’re likely to drive more when gasoline prices are cheap than when they’re expensive.

Eventually, prices get so low that demand exceeds supply. Prices bottom out and begin to rise. That’s when a commodity bear market turns into a commodity bull market. When a commodity bull market gets going, the gains can be huge. During the 2002–2008 commodity bull market, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 172%. Shares of some of the world’s largest mining companies climbed many times higher. For example, Anglo American (AAL.L) returned 464% over the period. BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) returned 1,106%.

The weak dollar has also given commodities a boost..…
The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen 5% this year. This index tracks the dollar’s performance against major currencies like the euro and Japanese yen. The dollar is the world’s most important currency. Most investors “think” in dollars. If you look up the price of sugar, corn, or gold, you’ll see its price in dollars. So when the dollar loses value, it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of a commodity. That’s why a weak dollar is good for commodities.

Still, there’s at least one reason to be skeptical about the rally in commodities..…
Commodities are the “building blocks” of the global economy. And Dispatch readers know that economic growth has come to a standstill. China, the world’s largest commodity consumer, is growing at its slowest pace since 1990. The U.S. is growing at its slowest pace since World War II. Japan’s economy hasn’t grown at all in two decades. When the economy slows, developers build fewer homes, office buildings, and bridges. That means they use less copper, aluminum, steel, and other commodities.

If you’re buying commodities today, make sure to buy ones that can do well while the economy struggles..…
Some commodities depend more on economic growth than others. For example, lumber, which is used to build homes, benefits from the tailwind of a growing economy. Soybean prices, on the other hand, can rise no matter how well the economy is doing. That’s because people have to eat no matter what’s happening with the economy.

So while the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 11% this year, not every commodity has rallied. Natural gas prices are still down 9% on the year. Copper is down 3%. Meanwhile, soybean prices are up 34% Although several Casey analysts have recommended commodity investments this year, they’ve been very selective about the types of commodities they recommend. This approach has paid off…..

➢ Nick Giambruno, editor of Crisis Investing, used the crash in oil prices to pick shares of a world-class oil company. This stock is up 13% since March.

➢ E.B. Tucker, editor of The Casey Report, used the turnaround in commodities to buy two gold stocks. One of those is up 47% since March. The other is up 31% since April. He also recommended a silver stock that’s jumped 36% since April.

➢ Louis James, editor of International Speculator, is cashing in on the commodity rebound too. One of his stocks has surged 162% since September. Another is up 122% since July. A third is up 63% since March.

Most investors would do well owning just gold..…
As we often say, gold is real money. It’s preserved wealth for thousands of years because it has unique set of qualities: It’s durable, easy to transport, and easily divisible. It has intrinsic value that folks recognize around the world. Like many commodities, gold “officially” entered a new bull market earlier this year. It’s in an uptrend, yet still cheap. It’s trading 34% below its 2011 high. Unlike many commodities, gold can do well even if the economy is struggling. It’s a safe haven asset that’s protected wealth through history’s worst financial crises.

Casey Research founder Doug Casey thinks we’re on the verge of a major financial crisis..…
Doug says the coming crisis will be “much more severe, different, and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009.” When it hits, “paper currencies will fall apart, as they have many times throughout history.”
Doug says this will spark a “true mania” in gold. That’s why we encourage everyone own physical gold. Putting just 10% or 15% of your wealth in gold could help you avoid big losses during the next financial crisis.

Finally, an important announcement from Jim Rickards..…
Part of our job at Casey Research is to share interesting opportunities with you. That's why we're passing along this important news from our good friend Jim Rickards. You've probably heard of Rickards. He’s one of the most respected analysts in the business. He’s a gold expert and author of The New Case for Gold. Jim recently launched a new service to help readers take advantage of the coming gold boom. Because he’d like as many folks as possible to read his service, he’s arranged a special deal exclusive to Casey Research readers. You can learn more by watching this free video. In short, if you take Rickards up on his special offer today, he’ll send you two “G-series” gold coins in the mail.

Again, this deal is only for Casey Research readers. Click here for the full story.

REMINDER: Casey Research founder Doug Casey will be in Poland next weekend..…
Doug will be presenting at the "Alternative for Difficult Times" seminar in Warsaw on June 18 and 19. Nick Giambruno, editor of International Man, will be there too. Doug and Nick will be there for the Polish launch of Doug's classic book, Crisis Investing. They will also be presenting at a seminar discussing the impending global financial hurricane, the state of freedom around the world, and how you can protect yourself and even profit from these trends.

Click here for more information.

Chart of the Day

Gold has been one of the best places to put your money this year. Today’s chart shows the performance of gold, commodities, bonds, U.S. stocks, and global stocks this year. You can see gold is up 17% this year. It’s crushed stocks, bonds, and even commodities as a group. For most of this year, gold was the top performing commodity. It was up more than 22% at one point. Then, it cooled off. It’s down more than 3% since late April.

We think gold is in the early innings of a major bull market. And, as we often say, bull markets don’t move in straight lines. It’s healthy for gold to take a “breather” after its red hot start to the year. If you’re looking to buy gold, we recommend using down days as buying opportunities. And again, for specifics on a coming opportunity in gold, we recommend you check out Jim Rickards' short video right here.

The article The Bear Market in Commodities Is Over…Here’s How Casey Analysts Are Cashing In was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

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Mike Seerys Weekly Recap of the Crude Oil, Gold, Coffee, Sugar and Markets

Over the past few weeks, the likelihood of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve Bank has grown substantially. Both economic data and hints from a number of Federal Reserve policymakers now point towards a December rate hike and now on Wall Street 70% of investors polled believe a rate hike in December is possible. 

So let us take a look at the data and what Fed officials are saying that is making investors believe a hike is coming. Our trading partner Mike Seery  is back to give our us a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week.

Crude oil futures in the January contract are up 90 cents this Friday afternoon in New York settling at 42.00 last Friday while currently trading at 42.60 as this market has been on the defensive for quite some time due to the fact of massive worldwide supplies as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines at the current time. Oil prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a double top at the 52 dollar level with the next major level of support at the contract low which was hit in late August around 40.00 as we could be entering a short position next week as the chart structure is starting to improve dramatically on a daily basis. Crude oil has stabilized in recent days due to the fact of terrorism and especially the possibility of that spreading to the Middle East, however worldwide supplies are massive and that is the real problem coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar which is higher once again today as the Federal Reserve basically will raise interest rates in the month of December which is also another negative, but as a trader I look for risk/reward to be in your favor and that could be in next week’s trade to the short side as I’m not convinced that prices are headed lower. In my opinion think if the oil market moves higher you’re going to need OPEC to cut production and I’m not sure if they are willing to do that at the current time, but if that does happen that would certainly put the short term bottom into this market.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the December contract settled in New York last Friday at 1,081 an ounce while currently trading at 1,081 unchanged for the trading week still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside, however I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market as prices have dropped $100 in the last three weeks as the chart structure is awful at the current time. Earlier in the week prices traded at a new contract low of 1,062 and now has rallied for the 2nd straight day as I still see no reason to own gold at current time as money flows are coming out of the precious metals once again and into the equity markets as I think that trend will continue for the rest of 2015. Gold prices have stabilized here in recent days due to the fact of all the terrorism that is occurring throughout the world and it looks to me that that probably could continue here in the short term, but the easy money to the downside has been made in gold as I think you will start to see a consolidation of the recent downdraft in prices so avoid this market at the current time and look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the March contract settled in New York last Friday at 115.80 a pound while currently trading at 122.75 up nearly 700 points for the trading week having one of the strongest weeks in quite some time bottoming out at the 115 level. As I’ve written about in previous blogs as I think coffee is in the process of bottoming, however at the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a trend to develop as prices are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend currently is mixed. The contract low was hit around the 115 level as prices are getting very cheap in my opinion as we are starting to enter the volatile season as I think we are squeezing blood out of a turnip at these levels, but I will be patient and wait for better chart structure to develop therefore lowering monetary risk as I think over the long haul prices are headed higher. The next major resistance is at 125 which is just an eyelash away as the soft commodity markets except for cotton have rallied over the last several weeks as traders remember in early 2014 a drought hit key coffee growing regions in the country of Brazil sending prices sharply higher in just a matter of weeks.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.04 a pound while currently trading at 15.04 unchanged for the trading week still in a very volatile trade as prices are swinging up and down on a daily basis as the chart still looks bullish in my opinion, however I am sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is poor at the current time. Sugar prices are actually trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average which is one of the only few commodities you can say that about as the trend still remains higher with major resistance at 15.50 as strong demand continues to prop up prices here in the short term coupled with the fact of lower production numbers coming out of Brazil. Sugar prices have rallied around 35% over the last three months as this was a very bearish trend for the several years as prices used to trade in the 30’s in 2011 as that’s how far prices have come down due to over production in Brazil, but that scenario has changed going into 2016 as weather is now the main focus to drive prices higher.
Trend: Higher - Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Mike Seerys Trading Theory
What Does Risk Management Mean To You? I generally tell people that the reason people lose money in commodities is not due to the fact that they are bad at predicting where prices are headed, however they are bad when it comes to losing trades and refusing to take a loss which results for heavy monetary losses that are difficult to come back from. For example if a customer has $100,000 account in my opinion on any given trade he or she should risk 2% – 3% of the account value meaning if you are wrong the worst case scenario is still a $97,000 remaining balance, however what I always see is traders risking ridiculous amounts of money and instead of the 3% stop loss will risk 20% to 30% on any given trade or even higher therefore if you are wrong on two or three trades that $100,000 dollar account could dwindle down to nothing very quickly and I’ve seen it many times throughout my career. What many traders forget to realize is they might have 4 or 5 commodity positions on and if you have too many contracts on all at the same time and all of those trades go against you which is very possible the losses can add up to be staggering so what I am suggesting to you is if you have $100,000 account risk between $2,000 – $3,000 per trade so if you lose on five straight trades the worst case scenario is that your down $15,000 and still have an $85,000 balance which is very possible to still come back from and your still in the game.

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


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