For the first time in a year WTI crude oil is traded below $54 a barrel hitting a low of $53.63. Oil fell as much as 6% as fears are surfacing that OPEC's planned production cuts will do little to stave off a surge in global stockpiles.
Bitcoin finally made a significant move to break out of the tight trading range that it had been trapped in. Unfortunately for Bitcoin bulls, it was not the move that they were looking for as it dropped almost 13% on Monday and continued lower Tuesday shedding another 4.8% to trade at the new yearly low of $4,547.00. The cryptocurrency is now down more than 60% year to date and more than 70% since its all time high. Where will it stop? $3000, $2000 or $1000?
Not to be outdone by oil and Bitcoin, stocks are all continuing the sell off that started Monday with the S&P 500 dropping 1.6%, the DOW is once again below 25k, shedding 2% and the NASDAQ is trading back below 7,000 losing 1.6%. The recent sell off has once again pushed the stock market back below the yearly open, shedding all of the gains that came with record highs earlier in the year which has driven all three indexes into correction/bear market territory. It's looking more and more like we have a good to chance to end the year lower unless we get the Santa Clause rally.
Jeremy Lutz
INO/MarketClub
Trade ideas, analysis and low risk set ups for commodities, Bitcoin, gold, silver, coffee, the indexes, options and your retirement. We'll help you keep your emotions out of your trading.
Monday, November 26, 2018
Gold Extends Consolidation Giving Silver Another Chance
Gold and silver exchange leading roles in the market quite often, especially on the short term charts. Last time I wrote about it silver saved gold from collapse at the start of this month. The white metal unexpectedly bounced off the earlier low reversing the drop of the yellow metal.
This time gold took the lead as its failure to break below the Bear Flag let silver lick its wounds and return above the $14 handle.
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Both metals are still trapped in the middle of the range set by the earlier heavy drop, which first occurred in gold and then it was repeated in the silver market. In this post, I have focused on the local structure as the bigger picture remains unchanged.
The top metal couldn’t break below the trendline support of a Bear Flag (orange) and then quickly restored most of its losses coming back above $1200. It is interesting that the forecasted drop unfolded quite differently in each metal. Silver tagged the earlier trough, but gold failed even to breach the vertically sloped trendline. It looks like strong demand appeared right at the round number of the gold price in the $1200 area.
This move up could build another leg of a prolonged correction, which is labeled as third 3rd (blue line) on the chart. The target for this leg is located on the upside of the trend channel ($1260-$1270), and it perfectly matches with the earlier top established this July. It is worth to mention that the triple legged corrections are not as regular as simple AB/CD double leg moves.
Currently, gold shows signs of a minor correction, therefore, I put the Fibonacci retracement levels to highlight the area where the last move up within the 3rd leg up could emerge. This area is located between $1209 and $1213, and it coincides with the trendline support contact point.
The break below $1190 is needed to invalidate the current growth structure.
Silver has a lot of tricks on the chart, and from the very beginning of this horizontal consolidation, I was puzzled to break down the initial structure, although gold has been hinting clearly at the large consolidation in both metals. The main assistant of the trader is time, as more time passes, the chart the structure of the instrument becomes clearer.
As gold didn’t confirm the end of the consolidation, then we should consider the continuation of it for silver as well despite that it retested the earlier low to establish the fresh one at $13.88.
It looks like we got a very complex BC junction, which consists of two counter-trend moves down (small red down arrows). The complexity emerged due to the additional pro-trend (counter-trend relative to red down arrows) sub-junction (small blue up arrows), which let silver synchronize the move with gold as earlier it has been lagging. What was considered to be a second CD leg up, turned out to be a lesser degree CD leg up of a sub-junction. The complexity of the silver chart structure was caused by the unstable nature of the market demand as central banks favor gold, and only cross-market bargain hunters eliminate the excessive miscorrelation.
The second leg (CD segment) up could finally retest the $15 round level to complete this large flat correction. The minor correction that started at the end of last week already hit below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($14.21) and could dip further to the $14 round level as gold have more room down for the same minor retracement.
The drop below $13.88 would terminate this leg up.
Aibek Burabayev
Contributor, Metals
This time gold took the lead as its failure to break below the Bear Flag let silver lick its wounds and return above the $14 handle.
Get These Articles in Your Inbox Daily....Right Here
Both metals are still trapped in the middle of the range set by the earlier heavy drop, which first occurred in gold and then it was repeated in the silver market. In this post, I have focused on the local structure as the bigger picture remains unchanged.
The top metal couldn’t break below the trendline support of a Bear Flag (orange) and then quickly restored most of its losses coming back above $1200. It is interesting that the forecasted drop unfolded quite differently in each metal. Silver tagged the earlier trough, but gold failed even to breach the vertically sloped trendline. It looks like strong demand appeared right at the round number of the gold price in the $1200 area.
This move up could build another leg of a prolonged correction, which is labeled as third 3rd (blue line) on the chart. The target for this leg is located on the upside of the trend channel ($1260-$1270), and it perfectly matches with the earlier top established this July. It is worth to mention that the triple legged corrections are not as regular as simple AB/CD double leg moves.
Currently, gold shows signs of a minor correction, therefore, I put the Fibonacci retracement levels to highlight the area where the last move up within the 3rd leg up could emerge. This area is located between $1209 and $1213, and it coincides with the trendline support contact point.
The break below $1190 is needed to invalidate the current growth structure.
Silver has a lot of tricks on the chart, and from the very beginning of this horizontal consolidation, I was puzzled to break down the initial structure, although gold has been hinting clearly at the large consolidation in both metals. The main assistant of the trader is time, as more time passes, the chart the structure of the instrument becomes clearer.
As gold didn’t confirm the end of the consolidation, then we should consider the continuation of it for silver as well despite that it retested the earlier low to establish the fresh one at $13.88.
It looks like we got a very complex BC junction, which consists of two counter-trend moves down (small red down arrows). The complexity emerged due to the additional pro-trend (counter-trend relative to red down arrows) sub-junction (small blue up arrows), which let silver synchronize the move with gold as earlier it has been lagging. What was considered to be a second CD leg up, turned out to be a lesser degree CD leg up of a sub-junction. The complexity of the silver chart structure was caused by the unstable nature of the market demand as central banks favor gold, and only cross-market bargain hunters eliminate the excessive miscorrelation.
The second leg (CD segment) up could finally retest the $15 round level to complete this large flat correction. The minor correction that started at the end of last week already hit below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($14.21) and could dip further to the $14 round level as gold have more room down for the same minor retracement.
The drop below $13.88 would terminate this leg up.
Aibek Burabayev
Contributor, Metals
Friday, November 23, 2018
Crude Oil and Bitcoin Hit New Yearly Lows
For the first time in a year WTI crude oil is traded below $54 a barrel hitting a low of $53.63. Oil fell as much as 6% as fears are surfacing that OPEC's planned production cuts will do little to stave off a surge in global stockpiles.
Bitcoin finally made a significant move to break out of the tight trading range that it had been trapped in. Unfortunately for Bitcoin bulls, it was not the move that they were looking for as it dropped almost 13% on Monday and continued lower Tuesday shedding another 4.8% to trade at the new yearly low of $4,547.00. The cryptocurrency is now down more than 60% year to date and more than 70% since its all time high. Where will it stop? $3000, $2000 or $1000?
Not to be outdone by oil and Bitcoin, stocks are all continuing the sell off that started Monday with the S&P 500 dropping 1.6%, the DOW is once again below 25k, shedding 2% and the NASDAQ is trading back below 7,000 losing 1.6%. The recent sell off has once again pushed the stock market back below the yearly open, shedding all of the gains that came with record highs earlier in the year which has driven all three indexes into correction/bear market territory. It's looking more and more like we have a good to chance to end the year lower unless we get the Santa Clause rally.
Jeremy Lutz
INO/MarketClub
Bitcoin finally made a significant move to break out of the tight trading range that it had been trapped in. Unfortunately for Bitcoin bulls, it was not the move that they were looking for as it dropped almost 13% on Monday and continued lower Tuesday shedding another 4.8% to trade at the new yearly low of $4,547.00. The cryptocurrency is now down more than 60% year to date and more than 70% since its all time high. Where will it stop? $3000, $2000 or $1000?
Not to be outdone by oil and Bitcoin, stocks are all continuing the sell off that started Monday with the S&P 500 dropping 1.6%, the DOW is once again below 25k, shedding 2% and the NASDAQ is trading back below 7,000 losing 1.6%. The recent sell off has once again pushed the stock market back below the yearly open, shedding all of the gains that came with record highs earlier in the year which has driven all three indexes into correction/bear market territory. It's looking more and more like we have a good to chance to end the year lower unless we get the Santa Clause rally.
Jeremy Lutz
INO/MarketClub
Monday, November 12, 2018
Will Crude Oil Find Support Near $60 Dollars
Our research team warned of this move in crude oil back on October 7, 2018. At that time, we warned that oil may follow a historical price pattern, moving dramatically lower and that lows near $65 may become the ultimate bottom for that move. Here we are with a price below that level and many are asking “where will it go from here?”.
We believe the support near $65, although clearly broken, may eventually become resistance for a future upside price move. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a new target near $52.00 - $53.00 and we believe this downside move in crude oil is far from over at this point.
The current global climate for oil is that suppliers are pumping more and more oil into the market at a time when, historically, prices should continue to decline. One of our research tools includes the ability to identify overall bias models for each week, month or quarter. Historically, crude oil is dramatically weaker in the month of November and relatively flat for the month of December.
Analysis for the month of November = 11
* Total Monthly Sum : -44.52000000000001 across 36 bars
Analysis for the month of December = 12
* Total Monthly Sum : -0.699999999999922 across 36 bars
We believe the price of oil will continue to drift lower to target the $52.00 - $53.00 Fibonacci support level before attempting to find any real price support. This equates to an addition -6 to -8% price decline for skilled traders. We will alert you with a new research post as this downward price move continues or new research becomes available.
We have been calling these types of market moves all year and recently called the top in the U.S. equity markets nearly 40 days before it happened. Want to know what we think is going to happen for the rest of 2018 and into early 2019? Visit the Technical Traders Free Research to read all of our public research posts. Isn’t it time you invested in a team of researchers and tools to assist you in finding greater trading success?
Chris Vermeulen
We believe the support near $65, although clearly broken, may eventually become resistance for a future upside price move. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a new target near $52.00 - $53.00 and we believe this downside move in crude oil is far from over at this point.
The current global climate for oil is that suppliers are pumping more and more oil into the market at a time when, historically, prices should continue to decline. One of our research tools includes the ability to identify overall bias models for each week, month or quarter. Historically, crude oil is dramatically weaker in the month of November and relatively flat for the month of December.
Analysis for the month of November = 11
* Total Monthly Sum : -44.52000000000001 across 36 bars
Analysis for the month of December = 12
* Total Monthly Sum : -0.699999999999922 across 36 bars
We believe the price of oil will continue to drift lower to target the $52.00 - $53.00 Fibonacci support level before attempting to find any real price support. This equates to an addition -6 to -8% price decline for skilled traders. We will alert you with a new research post as this downward price move continues or new research becomes available.
We have been calling these types of market moves all year and recently called the top in the U.S. equity markets nearly 40 days before it happened. Want to know what we think is going to happen for the rest of 2018 and into early 2019? Visit the Technical Traders Free Research to read all of our public research posts. Isn’t it time you invested in a team of researchers and tools to assist you in finding greater trading success?
Chris Vermeulen
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Thursday, November 8, 2018
U.S. Equities Roar to Life After Elections
Our research team is writing this message to alert all investors and traders of a pending rotation in the U.S. stock market that may happen between now and November 15th. The upside price breakout that is occurring on November 7th, the day after the US mid-term elections, is an incredible display of global investor sentiment regarding the GOP success in the Senate and the continued business friendly expectations originating out of Washington DC. The move, today, shows how clearly a global capital market shift is still engaged in the U.S. markets and how much global investors are counting on the US to drive ROI and economic growth going forward.
Yet, we feel it is important to urge investors that our modeling systems are still suggesting an ultimate price bottom should be setting up near November 8th - 15th and that we could still see a bit of downward price rotation over the next few days before this ultimate price bottom completes. It might be too easy to get caught up in this move, today, and fail to properly understand the price rotation risks that are still active in the time/price horizon.
The ES is currently +48.00 as of the creation of this post (+1.74%). This is an incredible move higher and the 2790 level becomes critical support for the markets as long as price is able to stay above that level.
The NQ is currently +172.50 (+2.45%) and shows just how clearly investors are piling into technology, healthcare and bio-tech after the US elections. This is a real vote from investors that they believe President Trump will be able to navigate any issues going forward and that the US economy will continue to push out strong numbers.
Follow our analysis to read our most recent research posts. We have already positioned our members for this “ultimate bottom” that our predictive modeling systems suggest is in the midst of forming. We called this entire downside move, bottom rotation and the ultimate bottom pattern setting up near November 12th back on September 17. If you want to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades, visit The Technical Traders to learn more.
Chris Vermeulen
Check out Chris' "Three Hour Mastery Trading Course" Right Here
Yet, we feel it is important to urge investors that our modeling systems are still suggesting an ultimate price bottom should be setting up near November 8th - 15th and that we could still see a bit of downward price rotation over the next few days before this ultimate price bottom completes. It might be too easy to get caught up in this move, today, and fail to properly understand the price rotation risks that are still active in the time/price horizon.
The ES is currently +48.00 as of the creation of this post (+1.74%). This is an incredible move higher and the 2790 level becomes critical support for the markets as long as price is able to stay above that level.
The NQ is currently +172.50 (+2.45%) and shows just how clearly investors are piling into technology, healthcare and bio-tech after the US elections. This is a real vote from investors that they believe President Trump will be able to navigate any issues going forward and that the US economy will continue to push out strong numbers.
Follow our analysis to read our most recent research posts. We have already positioned our members for this “ultimate bottom” that our predictive modeling systems suggest is in the midst of forming. We called this entire downside move, bottom rotation and the ultimate bottom pattern setting up near November 12th back on September 17. If you want to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades, visit The Technical Traders to learn more.
Chris Vermeulen
Check out Chris' "Three Hour Mastery Trading Course" Right Here
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