Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, NASDAQ 100 and More

Trading for the week of May 8th through May 12th ended with the Dow and SP500 indexes closing lower as investors reacted to an uncertain political environment stemming from President Donald Trump's firing of former Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey. Meanwhile, retail sales and consumer prices rose in the latest month, albeit by a slower pace than had been expected, offering a mixed picture of the state of the economy. The NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday, the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when next weeks trading begins.

So as we like to say....no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the June contract are trading higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session after settling last Friday at 46.22 while currently trading at 48.00 a barrel and I'm currently not involved in this market. Oil prices had a spike bottom last Friday which was May 5th at 43.76 & has rallied about $4. This market remains choppy just like all the other commodity sectors. However, if you are short a futures contract, I would place the stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 49.32 as prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower. OPEC has come back into the news possibly cutting production once again to try to prop up prices as oversupply issues are the biggest problem with this sector as every time prices rally rig counts in the United States increase, therefore, putting pressure back on prices. Prices have surged over the last several days off of the API report which showed a larger draw down of crude oil supplies, but basically, I think a lot of this was short covering as prices were in oversold territory.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,226 an ounce while currently trading at 1,230 down about $4 for the trading week and is still hovering right near a 7 week low. I'm currently sitting on the sidelines at present. As I've written about in previous blogs, I remain bearish on gold, and I think the stock market will continue to move higher. If you are short a futures contract, I would place your stop above the 10 day high which stands at 1,272 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. Gold prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that the short term trend is lower as volatility is relatively low. I don't expect that to continue for much longer as generally speaking volatility starts to increase in the summer months for the commodity markets. The precious metals have been on the defensive over the last couple of months as silver and platinum are also right near multi month lows as the commodity markets remain extremely choppy and have been over the last 6 months.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor - Improving

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.27 an ounce while currently trading at 16.45 up about $0.20 for the trading week and it's still right near a 5 month low as prices have rebounded due to oversold conditions in my opinion. At the current time, I'm not involved in silver as prices have dropped over $2 from their April 17th high and the chart structure is very poor. Silver futures are trading far under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside and prices are probably looking to retest the December 23rd low around 15.84. The precious metals remain weak because all of the interest remains in the U.S stock market which is right near all time highs once again. Silver prices have been extremely choppy over the last 6 months rallying several dollars and then selling off several dollars as that has been the case with many of the commodity sectors. In years past we had terrific trends, but that has not been the case in 2017 as the risk/reward is not in favor at the present time so move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

The Nasdaq 100 in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 5648 while currently trading at 5678 up another 30 points hitting another all time high this week. I'm not involved in this commodity. However, I am very bullish the stock market, and I've written about this in many previous blogs, I do think higher prices are ahead. The NASDAQ 100 is trading far above it's 20 and 100 day moving average being propelled by Apple Computer. Apple is up another $2 hitting another all time high as the tech sector is still on fire. I'm certainly not recommending any bearish position as this is the strongest trend out of all of the markets at the current time. I do think the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 will continue to follow. However, the NASDAQ is the strongest of all of the stock indices and clearly is the leader to the upside. Fundamentally speaking this market has the perfect situation occurring with extremely low interest rates coupled with outstanding earnings and a Trump administration that is pro business so who knows how high prices can go, but in my opinion, they are going much higher so if you are in a bullish position stay long.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, NASDAQ 100 and More

Trading for the week of May 1st through May 5th ended with the SP500 hitting a new record high on a rebound in U.S. job growth, U.S. non-farm payrolls grew by 211,000 jobs last in April. After plummeting a day earlier crude oil and energy prices rebounded on news that Saudi Arabia and Russia are ready to join in on OPEC production cuts.

So as we like to say....no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the June contract are up 60 cents this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 46.10 a barrel breaking the low that was hit on March 27th at 47.63 this week. I think prices could re-test the November low around the $42 level as the trend remains to the downside. Crude oil prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as the precious metals & the entire energy sector continue to be under pressure over the last several weeks. My only recommendation is a short natural gas position. The chart structure in crude oil is not that great, and I will wait for the monetary risk to be lowered. I'm certainly not advising any type of bullish position as this markets trend is negative and coupled with the fact of very poor fundamentals as worldwide supplies are massive as now the problem could be waning demand. Oil prices traded above $53 in mid April as prices have now dropped about $7 a barrel rather quickly, so let's keep a close eye on this market for a possible short position in the coming days ahead.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the June contract are unchanged this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 1,228 an ounce after settling last week at 1,268 down about $60 and continuing its bearish momentum. I was looking at a short position. However, I did not take the trade as the chart structure and the risk did not meet my criteria to enter into a trade. I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as I still think lower prices are ahead. Gold futures have now hit a 7 week low trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average. I will look for some type of price rally before entering a short position as the next major level of support is all the way down to the 1,200 level with silver and platinum hitting recent lows helping to put pressure on gold prices. If the 1,200 level is broken we could retest the contract lows that were hit on December 15th 2016 at the 1,130 level. I see no reason to own gold at present as the stock market continues to move higher on a weekly basis as that's where all the action is at the moment.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.26 while currently trading at 16.33 an ounce. It's down nearly $1 for the trading week and selling off about $2.40 since the April 17th high around 18.72. That was a 5 month high and prices have just absolutely fallen out of bed. I have not been involved in silver for several months as the chart structure is terrible at the present time therefore the monetary risk does not meet my criteria, and it looks to me that prices could retest the December 23rd low around 15.84. Prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the short term trend is lower as money flows are coming out of the precious metals and into the equity markets. The volatility in silver and many of the other commodity sectors is starting to rise as we enter the volatile summer season. I'm not involved in any precious metals at the current time as I was stopped out of copper earlier in the week.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

The NASDAQ 100 in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 5580 while currently trading at 5637 up nearly 60 points and continuing to hit record highs on a weekly basis. I'm not involved in this market, but I am bullish and I do think prices are headed higher. If you're long a futures contract, I would place the stop-loss under the 10 day low standing at 5471 as the risk is still about $3,300 per mini contract plus slippage & commission, but I'm certainly not recommending any type of short position as this market has good momentum to the upside. Obamacare looks to be on its last legs with the House of Representatives passing phase 1 of the new healthcare bill which is also bullish this market. I think that the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 will soon follow, but the tech industry is on fire with outstanding earnings almost across the board with Google and Amazon continuing to propel this market higher. The NASDAQ is trading far above it's 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher. Low-interest rates and great optimism about future growth in the United States continue to push prices higher.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, NASDAQ 100 and More

Trading for the week of April 24th through April 28th ended with the 3 major indexes again closing lower. The markets appear overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June contracts extend this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard...or impossible to project.

So as we like to say....no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Natural gas futures in the June contract are currently trading at 3.28 after settling last Friday in New York at 3.19. I have been recommending a short position from the 3.17 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high standing at 3.33. The original risk was around $800 per 2 mini contracts plus slippage and commission. The chart structure in natural gas is outstanding at the present time as prices are above their 20 and 100 day moving average. Colder temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States are pushing up prices here the last several days, but I will remain short & place the proper stop loss. Many of the commodity markets have experienced incredibly choppy trends in 2017. However, we are entering the summer months and historically speaking the trends and the volatility come back, so we will have to be patient. Natural gas supplies are still extremely high and that is why this market has been in a bearish trend for several years.
Trend: Lower- Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,289 an ounce while currently trading at 1,267 down about $20 for the week. I'm currently sitting on the sidelines as prices have now hit a 2 week low and my bias is to the downside. I am bullish the stock market & I think money flows are going to continue to come out of the precious metals and into the equity market and I'm looking at a short position in the next week or so. Gold prices are trading under their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average topping out around the 1,300 level 2 weeks ago. Prices have been in rally mode in 2017 due to geopolitical tensions throughout the world. I've stated in many previous blogs these always seem to fade away and that's exactly what's happening right now as silver prices continue their decline and I think that will start to put pressure on gold prices here in the short term. If you are bearish gold, my recommendation would be to sell at today's price level while placing the stop loss above 1,300 as an exit strategy. I will continue to sit on the sidelines as I'm waiting for better chart structure. Therefore, the monetary risk would be lowered as the risk is too high in my opinion at this point time. However, I am certainly bearish gold.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the July contract have traded lower 9 out of the last 10 trading sessions after settling last Friday in New York at 17.93 while currently trading at 17.22 down over $0.70 for the trading week hitting a 6 week low. I'm not currently involved in this market as the chart structure is terrible. Therefore, the monetary risk is too high. Silver prices are now trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average with major support back down at the 17 level as the equity markets in the United States continue to hit all time highs. Money flows are coming out of the precious metals so avoid this market as there really is no trend. At the current time, my only recommendation in the precious metals is a short a copper position. I'm negative on gold, but not involved as I still think stocks move higher. Therefore, the precious metals should continue to drift lower. Avoid this market at the present time & look at other trends with better chart structure and a better risk/reward scenario as the trends in 2017 have been tough to come by.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

The NASDAQ 100 settled last Friday in Chicago at 5442 while currently trading at 5581 up about 140 points for the week hitting another record high this week. As I've talked about in previous blogs, I'm not involved in this market. However, I'm extremely bullish and still think higher prices are ahead as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as this trend is very strong. The problem with this market is the chart structure is poor and there is a price gap around the 5460 level. I'm hoping that the price gets filled before entering into a bullish position as prices are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that this trend is strong and who knows how high prices can go. If you take a look at the Dow Jones and the S&P 500, they have not hit all time highs. I think both of those markets will continue to catch up to the NASDAQ as money flows are finally coming out of the precious metals and into the equity market as the Trump administration tax plans are finally starting to be released. That is extremely bullish for companies in the United States as now it could be a fair game worldwide for the first time in decades. Remember Apple Computer did $80 billion last year in profits and if you take a 20% reduction in taxes which is an increase of $16 billion for one company per year. That is why you see these markets explode to the upside and this will continue in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Gold, Silver, Copper, Sugar and More

Trading for the week of April 17th through April 21st ended with the 3 major indexes closing lower. This is a tough market to call right now as the different markets are giving mixed signals on the general direction of the economy and each individual market.

So as we like to say....no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Gold futures in the June contract are currently trading at 1,286 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,288 basically unchanged for the trading week as I am not involved in the gold market as prices remain right near contract highs due to tensions between North Korea and the United States coupled with the fact of a weaker U.S dollar in recent weeks. Gold prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as we are ending the week on a positive note up about $4 as 1,300 is the main resistance and if that is broken I think we could go to levels before the U. S. election around 1,330 an ounce. At the current time I don't have any precious metal recommendations as silver is right near a 2 week low, but there is demand for gold as there is so much uncertainty in the world at this time and if you are bullish a futures position I would place the stop loss under the 10 day low standing at 1,248 which is still $40 away as the chart structure is not solid at the present time, as I do expect volatility to increase in the coming weeks as well.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

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Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 18.58 an ounce while currently trading at 17.98 down about $0.60 for the trading week as I've been discussing the May contract, but that is near expiration so I will focus on the July contract going forward as I'm not involved in this market at present. Silver prices are trading lower for the 5th consecutive day and if you are long futures contracts I would still place the stop under the 10 day low standing at 17.80 which is just an eyelash way as this market remains very choppy in my opinion. Silver prices are trading under their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average really going nowhere over the last several months as I do not have any trade recommendations in the precious metals at the current time. The U.S dollar continues to flip flop up and down on a daily basis and that's why you're seeing the choppy commodity markets as gold prices have also stalled out around the 1,300 level as the precious metals had been rallying due to a possible conflict with North Korea & the United States which now seems to be diminishing on a daily basis.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

Copper futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.5860 a pound while currently trading at 2.5470 down about 400 points for the trading week right near a 3 month low. At present I'm not involved in this market, but I do think lower prices are ahead and if you are short place the stop at the 10 day high which in Monday's trade stands at 2.66 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade, therefore, the monetary risk will be lowered as I'm still looking at a short position on any type of rally. Copper prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as there is major support at the 2.50 level and if that is broken, I think we could head substantially lower as the commodity markets are having a hard time sustaining any real bullish momentum. Copper prices were trading around the 2.10 level just let last October but with the Trump administration's possible stimulus plan sending copper prices to around the 2.80 level around quickly as now were kind of a no man's land, but the trend is lower so stay short.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Sugar futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.57 a pound while currently trading at 16.38 down about 20 points for the trading week still stuck in a 2 week consolidation as prices are still right near a one year low. I'm not currently involved in sugar ,but if you are short as I do have clients who are involved in this marketplace your stop loss above the 10 day high at 17.13 as the next major level of support is the contract low which was hit on April 5th around 16.20 & if that is broken I think prices could head down to the low 15's rather quickly. Sugar prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that the trend is to the downside as overproduction and lack of demand continue to keep a lid on prices as the soft commodities still look weak except for cotton prices. At present, I only have one soft recommendation & that is a bearish trade in the orange juice market, but I am bearish sugar as I do think lower prices are ahead as the chart structure is excellent at present, therefore, allowing you to place a tight stop loss.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Silver, Copper, Coffee, Sugar and More

Trading for the week of April 10th through April 14th ended with the Dow leading indexes closing lower as markets volatility rears it's ugly head due to fed spooked financials and weaker transports.

So no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Silver futures in the May contract are up 27 cents at 18.55 an ounce trading higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session breaking major resistance as I will be recommending a bullish position if prices close above 18.50 while then placing the stop loss under the 10-day low which was also Monday's low around 17.73 risking around $800 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. The chart structure is relatively solid at present as the next major level of resistance is last November's high around $19 an ounce as gold and silver prices have broken out to the upside. The 10 year note is significantly higher once again hitting a 6 month high as interest rates have been heading lower in recent weeks, and that is bullish the precious metals and commodities in general as there seems to be what they call a flight to quality which affects the bond and precious metals market as investors park their money as a so called safe haven. Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher so let's look at playing this to the upside as the risk/reward are in your favor in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

Get Chris Vermeulen's Short & Long Term Gold Projections

Copper futures in the May contract are higher by 250 points this Thursday in New York currently trading at 2.5700 a pound after hitting a 3 month low in yesterday's trade as I'm looking at a short position, however the chart structure is poor as the 10 day high stands around 2.71 as the risk/reward is not in your favor at present. However, I am certainly not recommending any type of bullish trade as the trend clearly is to the downside. I will wait for the chart structure to improve which could take a couple more days as prices are now trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend has turned negative in the short term with the next major level of support down to 2.50 which was tested back in December 2016 on multiple occasions only to rally every single time. This is a unique situation in the precious metals as bullish trends continue in gold and silver, however we have a bearish trend in copper and that can happen at certain times due to the fact that gold and silver are used as a flight to quality where copper is an industrial metal so keep a close eye on this market for a short position.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the July contract are trading higher by 100 points at 141.25 in the July contract up in a slow manner with low volatility over the last several months as it looks to me that coffee prices are bottoming out in the short term. I have written about coffee many times in the past as I'm currently not involved in this market and haven't been for several months as I think prices are limited to the downside as it looks to me that the 138 level has held as prices are now at a 3 week high. Coffee prices are now trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at 148 as that is the critical level for the bullish momentum to continue in my opinion so keep a close eye on this market to the upside. At present, I am recommending a short position in orange juice and in cotton and I am also bearish sugar. However, coffee prices are starting enter to enter the month of May with the chance of a frost occurring in Brazil, so there could be a price premium put into this market to the upside and if a frost does occur prices move substantially higher & extremely quickly like they did in 1994.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.77 a pound while currently trading at 16.83 in a lackluster holiday trading week as tomorrow is Good Friday as the markets will be closed. I have not been involved in the sugar market, but I have remained bearish over quite some time. I have clients that are short and if you are in this market to the downside place your stop loss above the 10 day high standing at 17.18 which is just an eyelash away as prices actually traded as high as 17.16 earlier in the trading session. Many of the commodity markets have reacted to the positive side over the last several days due to the fact that bond interest rates in the United States have been going lower and that is supporting prices, however if you're short, continue to place the proper stop and don't 2nd guess as I think that's the kiss of death over the course of time. Sugar futures are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the trend is lower, but for this market to resume its bearish trend the 16 level has to be breached in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Gold, Coffee, Sugar, Copper and More

Trading for the week of March 27th through March 31st ended with the SP500 and Dow indexes closing slightly lower as markets consolidated this week's rally. This leaves markets neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term and the same goes for the NASDAQ 100.

So no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday at 1,251 an ounce while currently trading at 1,247 in a very nonvolatile trading week right near major resistance as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the short term trend is higher. At present, I am not, involved in the precious metals as the U.S dollar continues to flip flop which had made the commodity markets basically go sideways over the last several months. For the gold rally to continue in my opinion prices, have to break major resistance around 1,268 which is still about $20 away as the U.S stock market continues to hover near all time highs which generally is a negative towards gold prices. Gold prices bottomed out last month around the 1,200 level as that's when the Federal Reserve stated that they might slow down on raising interest rates sending prices back up towards the upper end of the trading range, however prices still remain choppy over the last several months so wait for a true trend to develop as there are very few markets that have strong trends at the current time.
Trend: Mixed - Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

Get Chris Vermeulen's Short & Long Term Gold Projections

Coffee futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 137.60 a pound while currently trading at 138.50 in a very nonvolatile trading week as I am not involved in coffee at present as I'm waiting for a breakout to occur as the chart structure has improved tremendously due to the fact that prices continue to go nowhere. Coffee prices continue to trade under their 20 day moving average as the 100 day stands at 147 as I'm very surprised at how low the volatility is as historically speaking coffee is one of the most explosive commodities in the world with huge price swings and huge risk as I don't see this continuing for much longer. Ideal weather conditions in the country of Brazil continue to keep a lid on prices as Brazil is the largest producer in the world and also the largest producer of many commodities in the world as we are starting to enter the frost season which is about 5 weeks away & certainly will send volatility back into this market, but at the present time look at other markets. In my opinion, I do believe prices are limited to the downside as eventually I do think higher prices are ahead, but there is very little fundamental news to push prices in either direction.
Trend: Mixed - Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.71 a pound while currently trading at 16.78 down nearly 100 points for the trading week continuing its bearish momentum as I am not involved in this commodity at present, but do have clients who are short a futures position and if that is the case place your stop above the 10 day high which now stands at 18.17. Sugar prices are trading well below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as prices are retesting the May 2016 lows and I do think there's a possibility that we could even go as low as 12.50 which was hit in February 2016 as this market remains bearish in my opinion so stay short. The chart structure will not improve for another week so you're going to have to accept the monetary risk as overproduction and lack of demand continue to put pressure on sugar prices here in the short term as I still do believe lower prices are ahead, however, if you have missed the trade like I did move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the risk/reward is not in your favor.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Copper futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.63 a pound while currently trading at 2.65 as I was recommending a bearish position from around 2.61 getting stopped out in Thursday's trade around the 2.70 level taking the loss and moving on as this market remains choppy. Copper prices are trading right at their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as prices hit a 3 week high following the stock market which is hovering right near at all time highs as the NASDAQ 100 did hit all time highs as I was also stopped out of that trade as I have no precious metal recommendations at the current time. The chart structure in copper is relatively solid as we could be involved once again in the next couple of weeks so keep a close eye on this market as it still looks expensive.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, 10 Year Notes, Sugar and More

Trading for the week of March 13th through March 17th ended with the market indexes closing slightly lower on Friday. The Dow and SP500 Stochastics and RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If these indexes resume the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be very difficult to project.

So no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the April contract settled last Friday New York at 48.49 a barrel while currently trading at 48.75 up slightly for the trading week as I've been sitting on the sidelines, but I do have a bearish bias to the downside as I think lower prices are ahead. The chart structure is relatively poor at present as the 10 day high stands at 53.80 which is way too much risk in my opinion, however I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as I do think prices could retest the contract lows which was hit on November 14th, 2016 around the 45.18 level as the commodity markets look weak at present despite the fact that the U.S dollar ended the week on a negative note. Oil prices are trading right near a 14 week low trading under their 20 & 100 day average telling you that the short term trend is lower as oversupply situations continue to hamper this market and I am looking at a short position if prices rally and the chart structure improves, therefore, lowering monetary risk as we could be short in next week's trade. Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,201 an ounce while currently trading at 1,229 up about $28 for the trading week all based off of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. However, stating that they will take precaution down the road sending many commodities higher while sending the U.S dollar sharply lower. At present I'm now recommending a short position from the 1,229 level and if you take that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 1,237 risking around $250 per mini contract or $800 on the large contract plus slippage and commission as the risk/reward are highly in your favor as the chart structure is outstanding. Gold prices hit a 6 week low earlier this week telling you that the short term trend is lower as prices are trading right at their 20 & 100 day moving average with major support around the 1,200 level & if that is broken the bearish trend should continue in my opinion so take a shot at the short side as the monetary risk is low.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.92 an ounce while currently trading at 17.37 up about $0.45 for the trading week all due to the fact that the Federal Reserve said they might slow down on interest rates hikes later in the year pushing the precious metals sharply higher. At present, I'm not involved in silver as I do have a short position in gold as I will wait for better chart structure to develop in this market as the chart structure is poor and the trend is mixed. Silver prices are trading right at their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is sideways with the next major level of support around the 17 level and if that is broken you have to think that we could test the contract lows around the 16 area, but look at other markets that are beginning to trend with a better risk/reward scenario. The U.S dollar fell sharply this week as that's what helped propel the precious metals as I still think interest rates are on the rise as this look like a massive short covering rally in my opinion, however, avoid this market at the current time.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

The 10-year notes in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 123-00 while now trading at 123-26 as this market reacted positively to the Federal Reserve announcement which said they will be patient at raising rates sending many sectors higher. I am currently short a position from around the 123-17 level while placing my stop loss above 123.28 on a closing basis only risking around $330 per contract plus slippage and commission as volatility in all of the commodity sectors will certainly be heightened in the coming weeks. The 10 year note is currently yielding about 2.52% hovering right at a 4 month low as the trend is lower as the only interest is in the stock market to the upside as higher interest rates are coming in my opinion so let's keep a close eye on this report.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 18.22 a pound while currently trading at 17.62 down about 60 points for the trading week ending on a sour note down over 60 points in today's trading session as I've been sitting on the sidelines as I missed this trade to the downside, however as I've written about in previous blogs I think prices are headed lower. Sugar prices hit lows that we have not seen since June 2016 with the next major level support all the way down at the 16.00 level as there is more room to run to the downside in my opinion as the soft commodities still look weak as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as this trend is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis. The chart structure at present is very poor because prices have dropped rather dramatically over the last several weeks topping out around the 21 level if you are short a futures contract stay short in my opinion & place the stop loss above the 10 day high which now stands at 19.84. However, the chart structure will improve every day in next week's trade, therefore, lowering the monetary risk.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Silver, Sugar, Wheat Futures and More

Trading for the week of March 6th through March 10th ended with the market indexes closing higher on Friday following the latest jobs report, which showed that 235,000 jobs were created in February while January number was revised to show 238,000, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.7%. Hourly pay increased 2.8% from February 2016 to February 2017, up from 2.6% in the prior month.

Time to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the April contract are currently trading at 49.50 a barrel after settling last Friday in New York at 53.33 down nearly $4 for the trading week near a 14 week low as the true breakout was below 51.86. However, I am not involved in this market as I'm waiting for some type of price rally to enter into a short position, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. If you are short this market I would place my stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 54.44 as the chart structure is very poor because prices absolutely collapsed over the last several days having its worst one day performance in over 11 months. Prices are now trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as massive supplies continue to put a lid on this market coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar as the commodities, in general, look weak across the board, but wait for some type of price rally before entering, but I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as I think lower prices are ahead.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,226 an ounce while currently trading at 1,204 continuing its bearish momentum right near a 6 week low as the precious metals continue to move lower on a daily basis due to a strong U.S dollar. At the current time I have no trade recommendations in the precious metal sector as it looks to me that gold might even possibly retest the contract low around 1,150, but avoid this market at present & look at other trades that are beginning to trend with a better risk/reward scenario. Gold prices are now trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as crude oil prices have also broken out of a tight consolidation which is another negative towards all commodity prices in my opinion. The U.S stock market is higher across the board today as the monthly unemployment number came in as the United States added around 235,000 new jobs as all the interest lies in the S&P 500 & not in gold at the current time.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.74 an ounce while currently trading at 17.02 down over $0.70 for the trading week as prices have hit a 6 week low trading lower for the 4th straight day. I was recommending a bullish position in silver for around two months getting stopped out in last week's trade which I considered very disappointing. However, prices have dropped much further as that is why you must have an exit strategy because you don't know how high or low prices can go as the precious metals, in general, have fallen out of bed. Silver prices are now trading under their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you the short term trend is lower as the contract low is around the $16 mark which was hit in December 2016 and it looks to me that prices might head down to that level, however, avoid this market at present as the chart structure is terrible therefore the monetary risk is too high. At present, I do not have any trade recommendations in the precious metals as my main focus is in the grain market to the downside as the commodities look weak in my opinion due to a strong U.S dollar.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 19.52 a pound while currently trading at 18.13 looking to retest the contract low which was hit in December 2016 and if that is broken you could head all the way down to the February 2016 low around 12.50 as this market remains very bearish. At present I am not involved as the chart structure did not meet my criteria when the original breakout occurred, however I do think lower prices are ahead and if you do have a short position place your stop loss above the 10 day high which now stands at 19.80 and will not improve for another 5 trading sessions, so you will have to accept the monetary risk. The commodity markets, in general, look very weak as the U.S dollar despite selling off this Friday afternoon continues to hamper commodity prices and especially the agricultural markets as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position in sugar as the momentum is getting stronger on a daily basis. Sugar prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that the short term trend is lower and expect to see stop some stops below that level as the large funds will add to their short positions in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Wheat futures in the May contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.53 a bushel while currently trading at 4.45 down about 8 cents for the trading week reacting pretty neutral to yesterday's USDA crop report lowering carryover levels by about 10 million bushels as the grain market still looks weak in my opinion. At present, I'm not involved in wheat as I am short oats, corn, and soybeans as I do think the whole complex is headed lower. However, wheat prices are still near a 4 week low with poor chart structure, so I probably will not be involved in this market for some time. The next major level of support is 4.38, and if that is broken, I think we will join the rest of the grains to the downside as we are now trading under the 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that short-term trend is lower. The U.S dollar is still hovering right near a 7 week high around the 102 level as that has finally put some pressure on many of the commodity sectors which have been rallying until the last week or so, but wheat has remained choppy for months so avoid this market & look at other trades with better potential.
Trend: Mixed - Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Platinum, Silver, Wheat Futures and More

Trading for the week of February 13th through February 17th ended with the market indexes closing higher going into the long holiday weekend. While all three major indexes are overbought stochastic and RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible for the near term.

Time to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 53.86 a barrel while currently trading at 53.08 down about $0.80 for the trading week still stuck in a 2 month consolidation with very little volatility which is extremely surprising in my opinion as I'm looking at a possible bullish position if prices break the 4 week high of 54.34 as the chart structure is starting to improve tremendously. Prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that short term trend is higher as a breakout is looming in my opinion as the risk/reward will be in your favor in next week's trade. OPEC continues to signal that they may cut production in 2017 and that is propping up prices, however the U.S dollar is still at 101 which continues to be a hindrance to commodity prices and crude oil & if there could be any weakness in the dollar I think you could really start to see the commodity markets accelerate to the upside. Crude prices and a false breakout in last weeks trade when prices traded at a 9 week low only to rally as the next breakout, in my opinion, will be the real one and I think it will be to the upside so keep a close eye on this market for a possible bullish position in next weeks trade.
Trend: Higher - Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,235 an ounce while currently trading at 1,244 right near a 3 month high as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines as I'm involved in all the other precious metals as you don't want to be too overloaded on one side as that can be dangerous if things fall apart. I am certainly not recommending any type of short position as I do think prices are headed higher & if you do have a futures position on I would place my stop under the 10 day low standing at 1,217 which is about $30 away or $3,000 risk per contract plus slippage & commission. Gold prices are trading above their 20, and 100-day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as the next major level of resistance was hit on February 8th at 1,246, and if that is broken, I think prices will head back up to the 1,300 level where prices were trading right when Trump was elected. Volatility in gold is relatively low despite the fact of all the worldwide turmoil as money flows continue to go into the S&P 500 which hit another all time high in yesterday's trade, however, gold prices are not selling off, and that is a good sign in my opinion as there is demand for precious metals and equities at present.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

Platinum futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at $1,011 an ounce while currently trading at $1,014 up about $3 for the week as I've been recommending a bullish position around the $1,008 level & if you took that trade the 10 day low has been raised to 990 as the chart structure will not improve for another 9 days, so you're going to have to accept the monetary risk at this point. Platinum prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as I've also recommended bullish positions in silver & copper and I do think gold prices will continue to grind higher. However, I'm not recommending a position in that market. The next major level of resistance is the February 9th high around $1,032 & if that is broken I think prices could head towards $1,100 and expand volatility as that is what we really need at this time across the board as this is not typical of the commodity markets to go this long without some type of craziness happening. The U.S dollar is still around 101 as that is keeping volatility low and a lid on prices here in the short term, but I do believe that demand is coming back for these commodities and that the bullish trends are developing.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

Silver futures in the March contract are currently trading at 18.03 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 17.93 up about $0.10 in an extremely low volatile trading manner which is shocking in my opinion as I've been recommending a bullish position around an average price of 17.00 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss under the 10 day low which now has been raised to 17.54 as the chart structure is excellent. Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that the short term trend is higher with the next major level of resistance around the recent high of 18.20 as I will be rolling over into the May contract in today's trade as expiration is coming upon us. At present am also recommending a bullish position in platinum & copper as I do think the precious metals look cheap, but we do need some volatility to enter this market as this trade is putting me to sleep despite the fact that prices continue to move higher. The main problem with the commodities at current time is the fact that the U.S dollar is at 101 and is relentless and will not selloff, but eventually, if we do get some weakness prices could accelerate to the upside and that is what I'm waiting for so remain bullish & place the proper stop loss. Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

Wheat futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.52 bushel while currently trading at 4.47 down about 5 cents experiencing a wild trading session in Thursday's trade selling off around 20 cents from the session high as this market is all based on weather conditions in the Great Plains section of the United States at present. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 4.40 level and if you took that trade, the stop loss has been raised to 4.27 as the chart structure is now outstanding therefore lowering monetary risk as we will be rolling over into the May contract as expiration is upon us. Wheat prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as record temperatures are reaching the Midwestern part of the United States on this long holiday weekend as we are closed on Monday as we will reopen on Tuesday morning due to the Presidents' Day holiday. The main concern about the wheat is the fact that it is still February and 65° is way too warm as we could still have a cold snap that could adversely affect the quality of the wheat and that's why you're seeing prices somewhat propped up here in recent days so continue to place proper stop loss while always maintaining the risk of 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Platinum, Silver, US Dollar, Coffee and More

Trading for the week of February 6th through February 10th ended with the S&P 500 closing higher. Posting a new record high as it renews the long term rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Of course that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the March contract settled last Friday at 53.83 a barrel while currently trading at 53.70 basically unchanged as I'm looking for a breakout above 54.34 for a bullish position to the upside as prices have gone nowhere over the last 2 months. Oil in Wednesday's trade hit a 9 week low creating a false breakout to the downside before rallying & finished higher on the trading session as prices have now traded up for the last 3 consecutive days so keep a close eye on this market as I still think higher prices are ahead. OPEC continues to hint that they might cut production in 2017 as they would like to see prices between $65/$75 a barrel and I think they will use their power to enhance prices as we are still trading above the 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher. The chart structure will start to improve later next week as a breakout is looming in my opinion as we are just not going to trade sideways forever as the commodity markets still look bullish in my opinion. If prices do break the 54.40 level, I think we could retest the double top around $56. However, we need some fresh fundamental news to push prices higher as the dollar remains stubbornly high.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Platinum futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at $1,006 an ounce while currently trading at the same price as I am now recommending a bullish position from around the 1,008 level and if you take this trade place your stop loss under $988 as the chart structure is outstanding. Platinum prices are down $16 in early trade this Friday morning so take advantage of the price dip as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend remains to the upside. At present I'm also recommending bullish positions in silver and in the copper market as the precious metals, in general, continue to move higher, however, early strength from U.S dollar has put pressure on platinum, but the risk/reward is now in your favor which is what trading is all about. The next major level of resistance is yesterday’s high of $1,032 which were levels that we have not seen since the month of October and if that is broken you would have to think that the bullish trend would continue so play this to the upside while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.48 an ounce while currently trading at 17.77 up around $0.30 for the trading week continuing its nonvolatile bullish momentum as I've been recommending a bullish position over the last month with an average price around the 17 level and if you took the trade place your stop loss at 10 day low which now stands at 17.10 as that will improve on Tuesday at 17.26, therefore, lowering monetary risk. The next major level of resistance is Wednesday's high around 17.87 & if that is broken, I think prices will head to the $18 range as I'm also recommending a bullish position in copper which is up about 1000 points this Friday afternoon as I remain bullish the entire precious metal sector. Silver prices are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as I still think prices are going to retest the $19 level that's where silver was trading right when Trump was elected, as the commodity markets are looking strong despite the fact that the U.S dollar remains firm so continue to play this to the upside.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

The U.S dollar in the March contract settled last Friday at 99.84 while currently trading at 100.81 up about 100 points for the trading week as I've been recommending a bearish position from around the 99.85 level & if you took the trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which was touched earlier in the trading session at 101.01 on a closing basis only. The dollar is trading higher for the 7th consecutive trading session with very low volatility as we are hanging in there by the skin of our teeth as I'm also recommending a bullish Euro currency as the commodity markets are higher across the board today despite the strength in the dollar. Prices are trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the short term trend is higher, but I will continue to place the proper stop and if we are stopped out then look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the trends are coming back mostly to the upside.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

Coffee futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 148.70 a pound while currently trading at 147.90 basically unchanged for the week as I was recommending a bullish position last week getting stopped out taking the loss and moving on as the chart structure was excellent at the time. However, prices continue to drift lower. Coffee prices are trading right at their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average which stands around 152 as I am still bullish coffee prices over the longer term, but when prices hit a 2 week low its time to move on & look at other trends that are beginning. At the current time, coffee is mixed to sideways. However, that doesn't mean we won't be involved relatively soon once again so keep a close eye on this market as this is a sleeping giant which is the largest commodity contract in the world as the risk is always higher in coffee than any other market. Growing conditions in the country of Brazil are currently ideal as certain dry pockets received substantial rain over the last week sending prices lower as its a long growing season and things can change on a dime as I remain bullish the entire commodity sector.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver & US Dollar

Trading for the week of January 30th through February 3rd ended with the market indexes closing in their higher ranges. Does that mean that we are sure the markets continue higher from here? No, but of course that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 53.17 a barrel while currently trading at 53.60 up slightly for the trading week as prices have been stuck in a $2 range for the last 3 trading weeks as I've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the trend to develop which I think might be to the upside. Oil prices are right at their 20 day but above their 100 day moving average as the chart structure is excellent at the current time as the United States released the monthly unemployment report which stated 227,000 new jobs were added which is a bullish indicator towards crude oil as there could be more demand with more people employed. The U.S dollar is still hovering around 100 which is still a longer term bearish fundamental indicator, but it seems to me that many of the commodities have already reflected that in their price so keep a close eye on this market to the upside as a 4 week high could be at hand next week. OPEC is hinting that they could possibly cut production once again in 2017 as it seems to me that they want prices back up into the $65/$75 level as that will take time, but I do think with growth coming back into the United States that is bullish stocks and commodities longer term.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Natural gas futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.35 while currently trading at 3.06 down about 30 points for the trading week as I have been sitting on the sidelines in this market as it has remained choppy over the last several months. If you take a look at the daily chart there is a price gap which occurred on November 18th between 3.02/3.06 and I do think that will be filled with the possibility of retesting the contract low around 2.80, but at that level, you have to start thinking prices are getting cheap. Warmer weather in the Midwestern part of the United States is the main culprit for lower prices as the city of Chicago did not receive any snow in the month of January which is remarkable in my opinion coupled with above average temperatures, therefore, increasing supplies. Natural gas prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower. However, I'm advising clients to avoid this market at present and look at other markets that are beginning to trend with a better risk/reward scenario.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,191 an ounce while currently trading at 1,213 up over $20 for the trading week right near a 10 week high as I've been sitting on the sidelines in this commodity recommending bullish positions in silver and copper. Gold prices are still trading above their 20 day but below their 100 day moving average as the trend is mixed to higher in my opinion as the U.S dollar is still hovering right around the 100 level as I'm also recommending a short position in that currency at present. The monthly unemployment number was released this morning adding about 227,000 new jobs having very little impact on gold prices in today's trade. The next major level of resistance is yesterday's high around 1,227 and if that is broken, I think we could go back to around the 1,300 level right where we were before the Trump election as there is still room to run to the upside. I want to wait for better chart structure as the 10 day low is too far away at present coupled with the fact that I am already recommending two other precious metals as they all follow one another up or down, so you don't want to be too top-heavy.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.14 an ounce while currently trading at 17.50 up about $0.35 for the trading week as I have been recommending a bullish position originally from around 16.76 and now have added on 2 separate occasions as I remain bullish the precious metals and especially silver prices. If you took the original trade continue to place your stop loss under the 10 day low which stands at 16.63 as the chart structure is not very solid at present due to the run up in prices, however, it will improve but it will take 4 more trading sessions. Silver prices are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as I'm also recommending a bullish position in copper which is down 500 points today & has been stuck in the mud over the last 3 weeks. At the current time I'm also recommending a bearish U.S dollar position and if that trade works out, you would have to think that would benefit silver prices as I still think historically speaking silver is very cheap and still has exceptional demand.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving - Poor

The U.S dollar in the March contract settled last Friday at 100.52 while currently trading at 99.85 down about 75 points for the trading week as I am now recommending a bearish position from around 99.85 & if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 101.01 risking around $1,200 per contract plus slippage and commission. The chart structure will not improve for another 6 days, so you're going to have to accept the monetary risk as prices are still trading below their 20 day but right at their 100 day moving average right near major support in my opinion. The United States released its monthly unemployment number adding 227,000 new jobs having very little impact on the currency market this afternoon as prices are still right near a 6 week low, so I will continue to place the proper stop loss while risking 2% of the account balance on any given trade. Volatility in the dollar is relatively high as we are having large price swings on a daily basis so make sure place the proper amount of contracts, therefore, managing risk properly.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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