Time to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Crude oil futures in the April contract are currently trading at 49.50 a barrel after settling last Friday in New York at 53.33 down nearly $4 for the trading week near a 14 week low as the true breakout was below 51.86. However, I am not involved in this market as I'm waiting for some type of price rally to enter into a short position, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. If you are short this market I would place my stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 54.44 as the chart structure is very poor because prices absolutely collapsed over the last several days having its worst one day performance in over 11 months. Prices are now trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as massive supplies continue to put a lid on this market coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar as the commodities, in general, look weak across the board, but wait for some type of price rally before entering, but I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as I think lower prices are ahead.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,226 an ounce while currently trading at 1,204 continuing its bearish momentum right near a 6 week low as the precious metals continue to move lower on a daily basis due to a strong U.S dollar. At the current time I have no trade recommendations in the precious metal sector as it looks to me that gold might even possibly retest the contract low around 1,150, but avoid this market at present & look at other trades that are beginning to trend with a better risk/reward scenario. Gold prices are now trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as crude oil prices have also broken out of a tight consolidation which is another negative towards all commodity prices in my opinion. The U.S stock market is higher across the board today as the monthly unemployment number came in as the United States added around 235,000 new jobs as all the interest lies in the S&P 500 & not in gold at the current time.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.74 an ounce while currently trading at 17.02 down over $0.70 for the trading week as prices have hit a 6 week low trading lower for the 4th straight day. I was recommending a bullish position in silver for around two months getting stopped out in last week's trade which I considered very disappointing. However, prices have dropped much further as that is why you must have an exit strategy because you don't know how high or low prices can go as the precious metals, in general, have fallen out of bed. Silver prices are now trading under their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you the short term trend is lower as the contract low is around the $16 mark which was hit in December 2016 and it looks to me that prices might head down to that level, however, avoid this market at present as the chart structure is terrible therefore the monetary risk is too high. At present, I do not have any trade recommendations in the precious metals as my main focus is in the grain market to the downside as the commodities look weak in my opinion due to a strong U.S dollar.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 19.52 a pound while currently trading at 18.13 looking to retest the contract low which was hit in December 2016 and if that is broken you could head all the way down to the February 2016 low around 12.50 as this market remains very bearish. At present I am not involved as the chart structure did not meet my criteria when the original breakout occurred, however I do think lower prices are ahead and if you do have a short position place your stop loss above the 10 day high which now stands at 19.80 and will not improve for another 5 trading sessions, so you will have to accept the monetary risk. The commodity markets, in general, look very weak as the U.S dollar despite selling off this Friday afternoon continues to hamper commodity prices and especially the agricultural markets as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position in sugar as the momentum is getting stronger on a daily basis. Sugar prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that the short term trend is lower and expect to see stop some stops below that level as the large funds will add to their short positions in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
Wheat futures in the May contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.53 a bushel while currently trading at 4.45 down about 8 cents for the trading week reacting pretty neutral to yesterday's USDA crop report lowering carryover levels by about 10 million bushels as the grain market still looks weak in my opinion. At present, I'm not involved in wheat as I am short oats, corn, and soybeans as I do think the whole complex is headed lower. However, wheat prices are still near a 4 week low with poor chart structure, so I probably will not be involved in this market for some time. The next major level of support is 4.38, and if that is broken, I think we will join the rest of the grains to the downside as we are now trading under the 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that short-term trend is lower. The U.S dollar is still hovering right near a 7 week high around the 102 level as that has finally put some pressure on many of the commodity sectors which have been rallying until the last week or so, but wheat has remained choppy for months so avoid this market & look at other trades with better potential.
Trend: Mixed - Lower
Chart Structure: Poor
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