Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, 10 Year Notes, Sugar and More

Trading for the week of March 13th through March 17th ended with the market indexes closing slightly lower on Friday. The Dow and SP500 Stochastics and RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If these indexes resume the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be very difficult to project.

So no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the April contract settled last Friday New York at 48.49 a barrel while currently trading at 48.75 up slightly for the trading week as I've been sitting on the sidelines, but I do have a bearish bias to the downside as I think lower prices are ahead. The chart structure is relatively poor at present as the 10 day high stands at 53.80 which is way too much risk in my opinion, however I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as I do think prices could retest the contract lows which was hit on November 14th, 2016 around the 45.18 level as the commodity markets look weak at present despite the fact that the U.S dollar ended the week on a negative note. Oil prices are trading right near a 14 week low trading under their 20 & 100 day average telling you that the short term trend is lower as oversupply situations continue to hamper this market and I am looking at a short position if prices rally and the chart structure improves, therefore, lowering monetary risk as we could be short in next week's trade. Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,201 an ounce while currently trading at 1,229 up about $28 for the trading week all based off of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. However, stating that they will take precaution down the road sending many commodities higher while sending the U.S dollar sharply lower. At present I'm now recommending a short position from the 1,229 level and if you take that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 1,237 risking around $250 per mini contract or $800 on the large contract plus slippage and commission as the risk/reward are highly in your favor as the chart structure is outstanding. Gold prices hit a 6 week low earlier this week telling you that the short term trend is lower as prices are trading right at their 20 & 100 day moving average with major support around the 1,200 level & if that is broken the bearish trend should continue in my opinion so take a shot at the short side as the monetary risk is low.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.92 an ounce while currently trading at 17.37 up about $0.45 for the trading week all due to the fact that the Federal Reserve said they might slow down on interest rates hikes later in the year pushing the precious metals sharply higher. At present, I'm not involved in silver as I do have a short position in gold as I will wait for better chart structure to develop in this market as the chart structure is poor and the trend is mixed. Silver prices are trading right at their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is sideways with the next major level of support around the 17 level and if that is broken you have to think that we could test the contract lows around the 16 area, but look at other markets that are beginning to trend with a better risk/reward scenario. The U.S dollar fell sharply this week as that's what helped propel the precious metals as I still think interest rates are on the rise as this look like a massive short covering rally in my opinion, however, avoid this market at the current time.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

The 10-year notes in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 123-00 while now trading at 123-26 as this market reacted positively to the Federal Reserve announcement which said they will be patient at raising rates sending many sectors higher. I am currently short a position from around the 123-17 level while placing my stop loss above 123.28 on a closing basis only risking around $330 per contract plus slippage and commission as volatility in all of the commodity sectors will certainly be heightened in the coming weeks. The 10 year note is currently yielding about 2.52% hovering right at a 4 month low as the trend is lower as the only interest is in the stock market to the upside as higher interest rates are coming in my opinion so let's keep a close eye on this report.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 18.22 a pound while currently trading at 17.62 down about 60 points for the trading week ending on a sour note down over 60 points in today's trading session as I've been sitting on the sidelines as I missed this trade to the downside, however as I've written about in previous blogs I think prices are headed lower. Sugar prices hit lows that we have not seen since June 2016 with the next major level support all the way down at the 16.00 level as there is more room to run to the downside in my opinion as the soft commodities still look weak as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as this trend is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis. The chart structure at present is very poor because prices have dropped rather dramatically over the last several weeks topping out around the 21 level if you are short a futures contract stay short in my opinion & place the stop loss above the 10 day high which now stands at 19.84. However, the chart structure will improve every day in next week's trade, therefore, lowering the monetary risk.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Silver, Sugar, Wheat Futures and More

Trading for the week of March 6th through March 10th ended with the market indexes closing higher on Friday following the latest jobs report, which showed that 235,000 jobs were created in February while January number was revised to show 238,000, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.7%. Hourly pay increased 2.8% from February 2016 to February 2017, up from 2.6% in the prior month.

Time to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the April contract are currently trading at 49.50 a barrel after settling last Friday in New York at 53.33 down nearly $4 for the trading week near a 14 week low as the true breakout was below 51.86. However, I am not involved in this market as I'm waiting for some type of price rally to enter into a short position, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. If you are short this market I would place my stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 54.44 as the chart structure is very poor because prices absolutely collapsed over the last several days having its worst one day performance in over 11 months. Prices are now trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as massive supplies continue to put a lid on this market coupled with the fact of a strong U.S dollar as the commodities, in general, look weak across the board, but wait for some type of price rally before entering, but I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as I think lower prices are ahead.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,226 an ounce while currently trading at 1,204 continuing its bearish momentum right near a 6 week low as the precious metals continue to move lower on a daily basis due to a strong U.S dollar. At the current time I have no trade recommendations in the precious metal sector as it looks to me that gold might even possibly retest the contract low around 1,150, but avoid this market at present & look at other trades that are beginning to trend with a better risk/reward scenario. Gold prices are now trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as crude oil prices have also broken out of a tight consolidation which is another negative towards all commodity prices in my opinion. The U.S stock market is higher across the board today as the monthly unemployment number came in as the United States added around 235,000 new jobs as all the interest lies in the S&P 500 & not in gold at the current time.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.74 an ounce while currently trading at 17.02 down over $0.70 for the trading week as prices have hit a 6 week low trading lower for the 4th straight day. I was recommending a bullish position in silver for around two months getting stopped out in last week's trade which I considered very disappointing. However, prices have dropped much further as that is why you must have an exit strategy because you don't know how high or low prices can go as the precious metals, in general, have fallen out of bed. Silver prices are now trading under their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you the short term trend is lower as the contract low is around the $16 mark which was hit in December 2016 and it looks to me that prices might head down to that level, however, avoid this market at present as the chart structure is terrible therefore the monetary risk is too high. At present, I do not have any trade recommendations in the precious metals as my main focus is in the grain market to the downside as the commodities look weak in my opinion due to a strong U.S dollar.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 19.52 a pound while currently trading at 18.13 looking to retest the contract low which was hit in December 2016 and if that is broken you could head all the way down to the February 2016 low around 12.50 as this market remains very bearish. At present I am not involved as the chart structure did not meet my criteria when the original breakout occurred, however I do think lower prices are ahead and if you do have a short position place your stop loss above the 10 day high which now stands at 19.80 and will not improve for another 5 trading sessions, so you will have to accept the monetary risk. The commodity markets, in general, look very weak as the U.S dollar despite selling off this Friday afternoon continues to hamper commodity prices and especially the agricultural markets as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position in sugar as the momentum is getting stronger on a daily basis. Sugar prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that the short term trend is lower and expect to see stop some stops below that level as the large funds will add to their short positions in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Wheat futures in the May contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.53 a bushel while currently trading at 4.45 down about 8 cents for the trading week reacting pretty neutral to yesterday's USDA crop report lowering carryover levels by about 10 million bushels as the grain market still looks weak in my opinion. At present, I'm not involved in wheat as I am short oats, corn, and soybeans as I do think the whole complex is headed lower. However, wheat prices are still near a 4 week low with poor chart structure, so I probably will not be involved in this market for some time. The next major level of support is 4.38, and if that is broken, I think we will join the rest of the grains to the downside as we are now trading under the 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that short-term trend is lower. The U.S dollar is still hovering right near a 7 week high around the 102 level as that has finally put some pressure on many of the commodity sectors which have been rallying until the last week or so, but wheat has remained choppy for months so avoid this market & look at other trades with better potential.
Trend: Mixed - Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Platinum, Silver, Wheat Futures and More

Trading for the week of February 13th through February 17th ended with the market indexes closing higher going into the long holiday weekend. While all three major indexes are overbought stochastic and RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible for the near term.

Time to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 53.86 a barrel while currently trading at 53.08 down about $0.80 for the trading week still stuck in a 2 month consolidation with very little volatility which is extremely surprising in my opinion as I'm looking at a possible bullish position if prices break the 4 week high of 54.34 as the chart structure is starting to improve tremendously. Prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that short term trend is higher as a breakout is looming in my opinion as the risk/reward will be in your favor in next week's trade. OPEC continues to signal that they may cut production in 2017 and that is propping up prices, however the U.S dollar is still at 101 which continues to be a hindrance to commodity prices and crude oil & if there could be any weakness in the dollar I think you could really start to see the commodity markets accelerate to the upside. Crude prices and a false breakout in last weeks trade when prices traded at a 9 week low only to rally as the next breakout, in my opinion, will be the real one and I think it will be to the upside so keep a close eye on this market for a possible bullish position in next weeks trade.
Trend: Higher - Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,235 an ounce while currently trading at 1,244 right near a 3 month high as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines as I'm involved in all the other precious metals as you don't want to be too overloaded on one side as that can be dangerous if things fall apart. I am certainly not recommending any type of short position as I do think prices are headed higher & if you do have a futures position on I would place my stop under the 10 day low standing at 1,217 which is about $30 away or $3,000 risk per contract plus slippage & commission. Gold prices are trading above their 20, and 100-day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as the next major level of resistance was hit on February 8th at 1,246, and if that is broken, I think prices will head back up to the 1,300 level where prices were trading right when Trump was elected. Volatility in gold is relatively low despite the fact of all the worldwide turmoil as money flows continue to go into the S&P 500 which hit another all time high in yesterday's trade, however, gold prices are not selling off, and that is a good sign in my opinion as there is demand for precious metals and equities at present.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

Platinum futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at $1,011 an ounce while currently trading at $1,014 up about $3 for the week as I've been recommending a bullish position around the $1,008 level & if you took that trade the 10 day low has been raised to 990 as the chart structure will not improve for another 9 days, so you're going to have to accept the monetary risk at this point. Platinum prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as I've also recommended bullish positions in silver & copper and I do think gold prices will continue to grind higher. However, I'm not recommending a position in that market. The next major level of resistance is the February 9th high around $1,032 & if that is broken I think prices could head towards $1,100 and expand volatility as that is what we really need at this time across the board as this is not typical of the commodity markets to go this long without some type of craziness happening. The U.S dollar is still around 101 as that is keeping volatility low and a lid on prices here in the short term, but I do believe that demand is coming back for these commodities and that the bullish trends are developing.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

Silver futures in the March contract are currently trading at 18.03 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 17.93 up about $0.10 in an extremely low volatile trading manner which is shocking in my opinion as I've been recommending a bullish position around an average price of 17.00 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss under the 10 day low which now has been raised to 17.54 as the chart structure is excellent. Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that the short term trend is higher with the next major level of resistance around the recent high of 18.20 as I will be rolling over into the May contract in today's trade as expiration is coming upon us. At present am also recommending a bullish position in platinum & copper as I do think the precious metals look cheap, but we do need some volatility to enter this market as this trade is putting me to sleep despite the fact that prices continue to move higher. The main problem with the commodities at current time is the fact that the U.S dollar is at 101 and is relentless and will not selloff, but eventually, if we do get some weakness prices could accelerate to the upside and that is what I'm waiting for so remain bullish & place the proper stop loss. Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

Wheat futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.52 bushel while currently trading at 4.47 down about 5 cents experiencing a wild trading session in Thursday's trade selling off around 20 cents from the session high as this market is all based on weather conditions in the Great Plains section of the United States at present. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 4.40 level and if you took that trade, the stop loss has been raised to 4.27 as the chart structure is now outstanding therefore lowering monetary risk as we will be rolling over into the May contract as expiration is upon us. Wheat prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as record temperatures are reaching the Midwestern part of the United States on this long holiday weekend as we are closed on Monday as we will reopen on Tuesday morning due to the Presidents' Day holiday. The main concern about the wheat is the fact that it is still February and 65° is way too warm as we could still have a cold snap that could adversely affect the quality of the wheat and that's why you're seeing prices somewhat propped up here in recent days so continue to place proper stop loss while always maintaining the risk of 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Platinum, Silver, US Dollar, Coffee and More

Trading for the week of February 6th through February 10th ended with the S&P 500 closing higher. Posting a new record high as it renews the long term rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Of course that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the March contract settled last Friday at 53.83 a barrel while currently trading at 53.70 basically unchanged as I'm looking for a breakout above 54.34 for a bullish position to the upside as prices have gone nowhere over the last 2 months. Oil in Wednesday's trade hit a 9 week low creating a false breakout to the downside before rallying & finished higher on the trading session as prices have now traded up for the last 3 consecutive days so keep a close eye on this market as I still think higher prices are ahead. OPEC continues to hint that they might cut production in 2017 as they would like to see prices between $65/$75 a barrel and I think they will use their power to enhance prices as we are still trading above the 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher. The chart structure will start to improve later next week as a breakout is looming in my opinion as we are just not going to trade sideways forever as the commodity markets still look bullish in my opinion. If prices do break the 54.40 level, I think we could retest the double top around $56. However, we need some fresh fundamental news to push prices higher as the dollar remains stubbornly high.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Platinum futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at $1,006 an ounce while currently trading at the same price as I am now recommending a bullish position from around the 1,008 level and if you take this trade place your stop loss under $988 as the chart structure is outstanding. Platinum prices are down $16 in early trade this Friday morning so take advantage of the price dip as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend remains to the upside. At present I'm also recommending bullish positions in silver and in the copper market as the precious metals, in general, continue to move higher, however, early strength from U.S dollar has put pressure on platinum, but the risk/reward is now in your favor which is what trading is all about. The next major level of resistance is yesterday’s high of $1,032 which were levels that we have not seen since the month of October and if that is broken you would have to think that the bullish trend would continue so play this to the upside while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.48 an ounce while currently trading at 17.77 up around $0.30 for the trading week continuing its nonvolatile bullish momentum as I've been recommending a bullish position over the last month with an average price around the 17 level and if you took the trade place your stop loss at 10 day low which now stands at 17.10 as that will improve on Tuesday at 17.26, therefore, lowering monetary risk. The next major level of resistance is Wednesday's high around 17.87 & if that is broken, I think prices will head to the $18 range as I'm also recommending a bullish position in copper which is up about 1000 points this Friday afternoon as I remain bullish the entire precious metal sector. Silver prices are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as I still think prices are going to retest the $19 level that's where silver was trading right when Trump was elected, as the commodity markets are looking strong despite the fact that the U.S dollar remains firm so continue to play this to the upside.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

The U.S dollar in the March contract settled last Friday at 99.84 while currently trading at 100.81 up about 100 points for the trading week as I've been recommending a bearish position from around the 99.85 level & if you took the trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which was touched earlier in the trading session at 101.01 on a closing basis only. The dollar is trading higher for the 7th consecutive trading session with very low volatility as we are hanging in there by the skin of our teeth as I'm also recommending a bullish Euro currency as the commodity markets are higher across the board today despite the strength in the dollar. Prices are trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the short term trend is higher, but I will continue to place the proper stop and if we are stopped out then look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the trends are coming back mostly to the upside.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

Coffee futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 148.70 a pound while currently trading at 147.90 basically unchanged for the week as I was recommending a bullish position last week getting stopped out taking the loss and moving on as the chart structure was excellent at the time. However, prices continue to drift lower. Coffee prices are trading right at their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average which stands around 152 as I am still bullish coffee prices over the longer term, but when prices hit a 2 week low its time to move on & look at other trends that are beginning. At the current time, coffee is mixed to sideways. However, that doesn't mean we won't be involved relatively soon once again so keep a close eye on this market as this is a sleeping giant which is the largest commodity contract in the world as the risk is always higher in coffee than any other market. Growing conditions in the country of Brazil are currently ideal as certain dry pockets received substantial rain over the last week sending prices lower as its a long growing season and things can change on a dime as I remain bullish the entire commodity sector.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Whoever Does Not Respect the Penny is Not Worthy of the Dollar

By Nick Giambruno

This definitive sign of a currency collapse is easy to see…When paper money literally becomes trash. Maybe you’ve seen images depicting hyperinflation in Germany after World War I. The German government had printed so much money that it became worthless. Technically, German merchants still accepted the currency, but it was impractical to use. It would have required wheelbarrows full of paper money just to buy a loaf of bread.

At the time, no one would bother to pick up money off the ground. It wasn’t worth any more than the other crumpled pieces of paper on the street. Today, there’s a similar situation in the U.S. When was the last time you saw someone make the effort to pick up a penny off the street? A nickel? A dime?

Walking around New York City recently, I saw pennies, nickels, and dimes just sitting there on busy sidewalks. This happened at least five times in one day. Even homeless people wouldn’t bother to bend over and pick up anything less than a quarter. The U.S. dollar has become so debased that these coins are essentially pieces of rubbish. They have little to no practical value.

Refusing to Acknowledge the Truth

It costs 1.7 cents to make a penny and 8 cents to make a nickel, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office. The U.S. government loses tens of millions of dollars every year putting these coins into circulation. Why is it wasting money and time making coins almost no one uses? Because phasing out the penny and nickel would mean acknowledging currency debasement. And governments never like to do that. It would reveal their incompetence and theft from savers.

This isn’t new or unique to the U.S. For decades, governments around the world have refused to phase out worthless currency denominations. This helps them deny the problem even exists. They refuse to issue currency in higher denominations for the same reason. Take Argentina, for example. The country has some of the highest inflation in the world. In the last 12 months, the peso has lost over half its value.

I was just in Argentina, and the largest bill there is the 100 peso note, which is worth around $7. It’s not uncommon for Argentinians to pay with large wads of cash at restaurants and stores. The sight would unnerve many Americans, who’ve been trained by the government through the War on Cash to view it as suspicious and dangerous.

For many years, the Argentine government refused to issue larger notes. Fortunately, that’s changing under the recently elected pro market president Mauricio Macri. His government has promised to introduce 200, 500 and 1,000 peso notes in the near future.

This is the opposite of what’s happening in the U.S., where the $100 bill is the largest bill in circulation. That wasn’t always the case. At one point, the U.S. had $500, $1,000, $5,000, and even $10,000 bills. The government eliminated these large bills in 1969 under the pretext of fighting the War on Some Drugs. The $100 bill has been the largest ever since. But it has far less purchasing power than it did in 1969.

Decades of rampant money printing have debased the dollar. Today, a $100 note buys less than a $20 note did in 1969. Even though the Federal Reserve has devalued the dollar over 80% since 1969, it still refuses to issue notes larger than $100.

Pennies and Nickels Under Sound Money

For perspective, consider what a penny and a nickel would be worth under a sound money system backed by gold. From 1792 to 1934, the price of gold was around $20 per ounce. Under this system, it took around 2,000 pennies to make an ounce of gold. At today’s gold price, a “sound money penny” would be worth about 55 modern pennies. A “sound money nickel” would be worth about $3. I don’t pick up pennies off the sidewalk. But I would if pennies were backed by gold. If that were to happen, I doubt there would be many pennies sitting on busy New York sidewalks.

Ron Paul said it best when he discussed this issue…

“There is an old German saying that goes, ‘Whoever does not respect the penny is not worthy of the dollar.’ It expresses the sense that those who neglect or ignore the small things cannot be trusted with larger things, and fittingly describes the problems facing both the dollar and our nation today.

Unless Congress puts an end to the Fed’s loose monetary policy and returns to a sound and stable dollar, the issue of U.S. coin composition will be revisited every few years until inflation finally forces coins out of circulation altogether and we are left with only worthless paper.”

There’s an important lesson here.

Politicians and bureaucrats are the biggest threats to your financial security. For years, they’ve been quietly debasing the country’s currency… and inviting a currency catastrophe. Most people have no idea how bad things can get when a currency collapses….let alone how to prepare.

How will you protect your savings in the event of a currency crisis? This just released video will show you exactly how. Click here to watch it now.

The article Whoever Does Not Respect the Penny is Not Worthy of the Dollar was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

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