ADL Gold Prediction Confirms Our Targets

The Gold rally we predicted to happen in late 2018 took place, almost perfectly, based on our ADL predictive modeling systems results. This rally took place in May through September 2019 and pushed Gold up to levels near $1600. The rest of the year, Gold consolidated near $1500 as a strong US Stock Market rally took hold in Q4 of 2019.

Our original prediction was that Gold would rally to levels near $1750 before the end of 2019 based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system (ADL). This did not happen in 2019 as out ADL modeling systems suggested, but it appears Gold is setting up for another massive upside rally in 2020.

Taking a look at our ADL predictive modeling systems on Monthly charts for Gold and Silver, we see two very interesting suggestions setting up :

• First, Gold may attempt a rally to a level above $1700 before March/April 2020 and potentially extend this rally to well above $1850 by August/September 2020.

• Second, Silver appears to lag behind this Gold rally by about 7 to 8 months. Silver does not appear to want to start a rally until well after July or August 2020.

If we consider what happened in 2008/09 with the global credit market crisis, both Gold and Silver contracted lower near the start of this crisis (in late 2008). Eventually, Gold began to move higher in August/September 2009 (well into the crisis event). Silver didn’t really start to accelerate higher will August 2010 – a full 12 months after the Gold rally started.

Our ADL system is suggesting that the Silver rally will lag behind the gold rally by about 10 to 14 months given the ADL predictions for price activity in 2020. Thus, Gold may continue to rally much higher fairly early in 2020, yet we won’t see much upside movement in Silver till after July 2020.

Monthly Gold ADL Chart

This first Monthly Gold ADL chart highlights the ADL predictive modeling systems suggestion related to future price targets. We can see the upside move in Gold should begin with an upside target near $1600-1625 over the next 60+ days. After that, the rally should accelerate higher in April/May 2020 with another move higher towards $1700-1725. By August/September 2020, Gold should attempt a rally to levels above $1800-1850 and then begin to consolidate above $1800 for a few months.

Silver Monthly ADL Chart

This Silver Monthly ADL chart suggests that Metals will react very similar in 2020 to what happened in 2008-09. While Gold began to rally in August 2009, Silver did not begin to accelerate higher till August/September 2010. This delay in the understanding that Silver presents valid protection against risk may take place in this current upside rally in Gold. If the ADL predictions are accurate, then Silver will continue to provide buying opportunities for many months near $17.50-$18.00 before a major upside price advance begin.

By July 2020, Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting Silver will advance to levels above $18.25, then begin a major price advance to levels above $19-20 fairly quickly. Please keep in mind the scope of these predictions related to the global markets and the U.S. Presidential elections. We read into this that a lot of chaos/turmoil may be taking place in the US/World after June/July 2020.

Weekly Gold Chart

This last chart is a Weekly Gold chart highlighting our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs and the major resistance level that has just been broken in Gold. The heavy GREEN arc and the BLACKLINE that we’ve drawn on this chart represent massive resistance originating from the lows near August 2018 in Gold. We believe this resistance level, once broken, will prompt a major upside price move in Gold to levels closer to or above $1700. If this price advance in Gold aligns well with our ADL predictions, then we believe fear will continue to drive future a future price advance in Gold and that fear may be related to continued Global stock market concerns and the U.S. elections.

2020 may be a very good year for precious metals traders who are able to identify solid entry trades for these moves. If our ADL predictions are accurate, Gold should rally over 25% before the end of 2020. Silver may rally as much as 15% before the end of 2020. The timing of these moves suggests Gold traders will have opportunities for bigger price advanced early in 2020 and will begin a larger upside price move after February/March 2020. Silver will begin an upside price move after basing near the March/April 2020.

2020 is going to be a fantastic year for skilled technical traders. Join us and our valued members in finding great trades and incredible opportunities in the markets by joining The Technical Traders.

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders Ltd.

Our ADL System Predicts Crude Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40.00

There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening. It has happened for our team of research so often lately that we are somewhat used to the accolades we receive from our followers and members. Our October 2018 Gold price predictions are still playing out accurately and continue to amaze people – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.

Today, we wanted to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling systems expectations for Crude Oil, but before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter. The research post we made on July 10, 2019 (see below). At that time, we warned that Crude Oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that Oil prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking much lower in November 2019. Ultimately, Oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019. Read our full prediction/research report from the link below.

Source: July 10, 2019: Predictive Modeling Suggest Oil Headed Much Lower

We believe the support level near $50.50 will act as a temporary support level over the next 3 to 10+ days before a moderate price breakdown below this level begins. Our expectations for November 2019 are that oil prices may fall to levels below $45 ppb on a deeper downward price move, yet will recover to levels near $47 near December 2019/January 2020.

We do believe the ultimate target for Crude Oil prices are to levels below $40 ppb and that price may attempt to make a move towards these level as early as January 2020. Our ADL predictive modeling system has shown us the path for oil prices and, so far, the real price has mirrored this expectation almost perfectly – even the high price in September aligned with our expected high price near $60.

Weakness should dominate in late October and early November – carrying all the way through most of November. Pay attention to the ADL chart above and our July 10th predictions. Oil will target levels below $40 by late December 2019 or early January 2020.

All it is going to take is for this $50.50 support level to be tested and breached for the next price move to begin. Be prepared for the volatility that may hit oil prices near this critical support level and be prepared for the next move to levels near $44~47.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Join Now and Get a Free 1 oz Silver Round or Gold Bar and Special Offer – Click Here

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong side of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends

It is becoming evident that the US/Chinese trade issues are going to become a point of contention for the markets going forward. We’ve been review as much news as possible in an attempt to build a consensus for the future of the U.S. markets and global markets. As of last week, it appears any potential trade deal with China has reset back to square one. The news we are reading suggests that China wants to reset their commitments with the US, remove all tariffs and wants the US to commit to buying certain levels of Chinese goods in the future. Additionally, China has yet to commit to stopping the IP/Technology theft from U.S. companies – which is a very big contention for the US.

This suggests the past 6+ months of trade talks have completely broken down and that this trade issue will likely become a market driver over the next 12+ months. The global markets had anticipated a deal to be reached by the end of March 2019. At that time, Trump announced that he was extending talks with China without installing any new tariffs. The intent was to show commitment with China to reach a deal at that time – quickly.

It appears that China had different plans – the intention to delay and ignore U.S. requests. It is very likely that China has worked to secure some type of “plan B” type of scenario over the past 6+ months and they may feel they are negotiating from a position of power at this time. Our assumption is that both the U.S. and China feel their interests are best served by holding their cards close to their chests while pushing the other side to breakdown through prolonged negotiations.

Our observations are that an economic shift is continuing to take place throughout the globe that may see these US/China trade issues become the forefront issue over the next 12 to 24 months – possibly lasting well past the November 2020 US Presidential election cycle. It seems obvious that China is digging in for a prolonged negotiation process while attempting to hold off another round of tariffs from the US. Additionally, China is dealing with an internal process of trying to shift away from “shadow banking” to eliminate the risks associated with unreported corporate and private debt issues.

The limited, yet still valid, resources we have from within China are suggesting that layoffs are very common right now and that companies are not hiring as they were just a few months ago. One of our friends/sources suggested the company he worked for has been laying off employees for over 30 days now and he just found out he was laid off last week. He works in the financial field.

We believe the long term complications resulting from a prolonged U.S./China trade war may create a foundational shift within the global markets over the next 16 to 24+ months headed into the November 2020 U.S. Elections. We’ve already authored articles about how the prior 24 months headed into major U.S. elections tend to be filled with price rotation while an initial downside price move is common within about 16+ months of a major US election event. This year may turn out to prompt an even bigger price rotation.

U.S. Stock Market volatility just spiked to levels well above 20 – levels not seen since October/November 2018, when the markets fell nearly 20% before the end of 2018. The potential for increased price volatility over the next 12+ months seems rather high with all of the foreign positioning and expectations that are milling around. It seems like the next 16+ months could be filled with incredibly high volatility, price rotation and opportunity for skilled traders.

Our primary concern is that the continued trade war between the U.S. and China spills over into other global markets as a constricted price range based trading environment. Most of the rest of the world is still trying to spark some increased levels of economic growth after the 2008-09 market crisis. The current market environment does not settle well for investor confidence, growth, and future success. The combination of a highly contested U.S. Presidential election, US/China trade issues, a struggling general foreign market, currency fluctuations attempting to mitigate capital risks and other issues, it seems the global stock markets are poised for a very big increase in volatility and price rotation over the next 2 years or so.

Our first focus is on the Hang Seng Index. This Weekly chart shows just how dramatic the current price rotation has been over the past few weeks and how a defined price channel could be setting up in the HSI to prompt a much larger downside objective. Should continue trade issues persist and should China, through the course of negotiating with the U.S., expose any element of risk perceived by the rest of the world, the potential for further price contraction is very real. China is walking a very fine line right now as Trump is pushing issues (trade issues and IP/Technology issues) to the forefront of the trade negotiations. In our opinion, the very last thing China wants is their dirty laundry, shady deals and political leadership strewn across the global news cycles over the next 24+ months.

The DAX Weekly Index is showing a similar price pattern. A very clear upper price trend channel which translates into a very clear downside price objective is price continues lower. Although the DAX is not related directly to the US/China trade negotiations, the global markets are far more interconnected now than ever before. Any rotation lower in China will likely result in a moderate price decrease in many of the major global market indexes.

As we’ve suggested within our earlier research posts, U.S. election cycles tend to prompt massive price rotations when the election cycles are intense. In our next post PART II of this report, we talk about what happened in the past election cycles reviewing the monthly charts and weekly SP500 index charts which are very telling in what could be about to happen next for the stock market from an investors standpoint.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think it's time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 7 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

One Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE (Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

Two Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE (Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 13 more silver rounds I’m giving away ​​​​​​​so upgrade or join now before it's too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen
Stay tuned for PART II next!

Gold – A Unique Repeat of the 2007 and How to Profit

Since Spring is in the air here are some colorful charts and show you where we feel the price of gold and stocks are within the current market cycles. Below are monthly charts of the SP500 index and the price of gold. The first chart shows a pattern that gold formed just before stocks hit all time new highs and the bear market started. The chart is a little noisy, lots of analysis, but we color coded each area to break it into clear bits size analysis. The chart shows you what happened and what is likely to happen again.

You Are Here in the Stock Market

This is the current monthly chart, and if you compare the price action with the above chart, you can’t help but think things are set up in a similar formation as 2007 – 2008.

What Does All This Mean?

It means, the stock market is nearing a significant top and all everyone’s long term buy and hold investments should be reviewed and prepared for a rebalancing later this year. Precious metals should do well this year, stocks should top out and for you to preserve their hard earned money cash is always king for those who don’t actively trade. But if you do trade or you are an active investor huge amounts of money can be made during times of increased volatility, precious metals, and falling stock market prices.

Today’s Stock Market Analysis – Wednesday April 28th

What an AWESOME DAY! All our positions rocketed higher with our most recent entry in SIL (silver miners) leading the way. We closed our TNA position to lock in 17.7% on the second portion of that trade. Yes, we do feel the markets will run higher, but we also like to lock in the quick, easy money trades like TNA especially when the overall market is looking and feeling a little top heavy for a day or three. The chart below of the SP500 index paints a color picture of what I feel will unfold in the very near term.

In Conclusion

Our analysis of the markets was DEAD ON. We called the 2678 level on the ES as a key resistance level to watch before any breakout to the upside would potentially happen. We also called this market bottom nearly three weeks ago on March 28, 2018 and we locked in 17.7% today with our subscribers. We have been nailing these market reversals with incredible accuracy all year and we are just getting started with our Advanced Dynamic Learning systems [preview that system here] we have developed.

The bottom line is that smart traders and investors look into the future and position their money where they feel it will increase in value the most. We say this all the time, which is money is continually looking for the best ROI and flows from one asset class to another as the market evolves. With potentially another major financial crisis forming, war, and a bear market in stocks we do not doubt that we are about to experience a huge rebalancing of money over the next few years, and I feel precious metals may be the next little hot pocket for trades.

So if you want our pre-market video analysis showing you where the markets, oil, and gold are headed every day and want out ETF trade alerts be sure to join the Wealth Building Newsletter Here!

Chris Vermeulen
The Technical Traders

Should You Consider Investing/Buying Gold or Bitcoin?

Our trading partner Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders just put together this great article comparing Bitcoin against traditional commodities for investing and storing wealth....

Recently, we have been asked by a number of clients about the precious metals and what our advice would be with regards to buying, selling or holding physical or trading positions in the metals.  There are really only a few short and simple answers to this question and they are revolve around the concept of providing a hedge against risk, capital preservation and opportunity for returns.  Let’s explore the details a bit further.

First, Gold, historically, has been and will continue to be the basis of physical wealth for the foreseeable future.  Currently, Gold and Silver are relatively low cost compared to other assets offering similar protection.   As of right now, Gold and Silver are nearing the lowest price ratio levels, historically, that have existed since 1990.  This means, the relationship of the price ratio for Gold and Silver are comparatively low in relationship to how Gold and Silver are priced in peak levels.  So, right now is the time to be acquiring Gold and Silver as a low price hedge against another global crisis event or market meltdown.

People are starting to park their money in digital currencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, rather than parking them in fiat currencies – I buy and hold my currencies in this crypto wallet CoinBase. This is primarily due to the Negative Interest Rate Policy as well as Zero Interest Rate Policy of the Central Banks, which explains the sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin, this year.

Taking a look at this chart of the DOW Index shown in relative Gold Ounce price levels, we can see that every peak in this ratio above 15 or so has resulted in a dramatic ratio level reversion (decline).  This reversion means that asset prices (the DOW price level) declined while the price of Gold rose or stayed relatively stable.  The current level is well above 17 and any peak in this level should start the next rally in precious metals while global equities contract.

Second, the fact that the Gold and Silver price ratio is historically very low (meaning they provide a very good hedging opportunity at historically very low price ratio levels) also means that cash can be traded for physical gold with very limited risk and provide an excellent hedge for inflation, global market crisis events and as long term investments.  Taking advantage of the current market conditions, one has to be aware that crisis events do exist and present a clear risk to future equity investments.

One could decide to risk further capital hedging with options or short positions as risk becomes more evident, but these are inherently more risky than a physical Gold or Silver investment.  Physical Gold or Silver, especially rare coins which include greater intrinsic value, can provide real capital, real gains, real hedging of risk and real return – whereas the short positions or options are only valuable if the trade is executed to profit.

The relationship of the US Dollar to Gold is key to understanding precious metals valuations.  As the US Dollar increases in value, this puts pressure on the price of Gold because most of the world operates in US Dollars and Gold is typically a hedge against risk and inflation.  Therefore, as the US Dollar increases in value, there is a perceived view that risks and inflation are less of a threat to the global economy.

As this chart, below, shows, the US Dollar is currently settling within a FLAG formation that could result in downside price action – below recent support.  When we consider the first chart, showing the price of Gold being historically very cheap and the ratio being above 17, we must assume that any downside price activity in Gold is a blessing right now because these levels have not been seen since 1999, 1965 or 1929.  In other words, this is potentially a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for investors.

Lastly, Gold and Silver are very limited in supply on this planet and, unless society decides that Gold or Silver is absolutely worthless as a substance, will likely continue to increase in value.  News that China and Russia are acquiring hundreds of tons of gold each year in preparation for a gold based currency is another set of reasons that you should consider starting your own physical hoard of precious metals.

The most important thing for you to understand about owning physical Gold and Silver is that it is a protective investment that can be liquidated or resold at almost any time in the future.  It can be traded, held, secured and transported easily.  You can physically take possession of your Gold and Silver and be assured that through any banking crisis, global market crisis or major global event, you have enough physical precious metal to operate in a crisis mode and likely attain great wealth/gains in the process.

Think of physical Gold and Silver like an “emergency kit”.  You hope you never need it, but when you do need it, you had better be prepared and have set aside some physical holdings before the crisis event happened.  Out here in California, we keep “Earthquake Kits” with emergency supplies, water, lanterns, food and other essentials.  Well, guess what is included in my Earthquake Kit?  Yup – Gold and Silver in proper quantities that I could barter and trade for items that are essential.

This final chart is the Gold to Silver ratio and is used to identify when price disparity between the two most common precious metals is opportunistic for one metal over the other.  When the price of Gold is high compared to the price of Silver, this ratio will climb.  When the price of Silver increases, because of perceived market risks, this ratio will decline.  Currently, one can see that we are nearing a peak in this ratio chart – meaning that Silver is much cheaper, in relative terms, than gold.  Because of this, investors should consider Silver and Gold as viable wealth protection.

Should another market crisis event unfold, both Silver and Gold will likely rally.  This chart is telling us that Silver will likely rally by a larger percentage value than Gold to result in a decline in this ratio and resulting in closer “parity” between the valuations of these two precious metals.  Again, currently, this is very close to a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for investors.

The point of my post is that I can think of no reasons why anyone would not want to attain some physical Gold and Silver at today’s prices to protect against known risks, provide a hedge against inflation and crisis events and to protect wealth from what we all know will happen in a crisis event – the banks will close or limit cash availability (think of Greece).  So, it is really up to you to determine if and how you want to prepare for what could happen in the future.  Will you have your “emergency kit” and be prepared or not?

Now is the time to consider building your “emergency kit” and to prepare for the next market crisis event.  Our research team is ready to assist you and to keep you updated with Daily and Weekly update for all the major markets.

Visit The Technical Traders Here to learn more about our services and newsletters today.

How Gold Stocks Could Deliver Historic Gains in the Years Ahead

By Doug Casey

My regular readers know why I believe the gold price is poised to move from its current level of around $1,250 per ounce to $1,500… $2,000… and eventually past $3,000. Right now, we are exiting the eye of the giant financial hurricane that we entered in 2007, and we’re going into its trailing edge. It’s going to be much more severe, different, and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009.

In a desperate attempt to stave off a day of financial reckoning during the 2008 financial crisis, global central banks began printing trillions of new currency units. The printing continues to this day. And it’s not just the Federal Reserve that’s doing it: it’s just the leader of the pack. The U.S., Japan, Europe, China… all major central banks are participating in the biggest increase in global monetary units in history.

These reckless policies have produced not just billions, but trillions in malinvestment that will inevitably be liquidated. This will lead us to an economic disaster that will in many ways dwarf the Great Depression of 1929–1946. Paper currencies will fall apart, as they have many times throughout history. This isn’t some vague prediction about the future. It’s happening right now. The Canadian dollar has lost 33% of its value since 2013. The Australian dollar has lost 27% of its value during the same time. The Japanese yen and the euro have crashed in value. And the U.S. dollar is currently just the healthiest horse on its way to the glue factory.

These moves show that we’re in the early stages of a currency crisis. But if you make the right moves, you could actually make windfall gains instead of suffering losses. Here’s how to do it. The huge winner during this crisis will be the only currency that has real value: gold.

Gold has been used as money for thousands of years because it has a unique combination of qualities. Very briefly, it’s durable, easily divisible, convenient to carry, consistent around the world, and has value in and of itself. Just as important, governments can’t create gold out of thin air. It’s the only financial asset that’s not simultaneously someone else’s liability.

When people wake up and realize that most banks and governments are bankrupt, they’ll flock to gold… just as they’ve done for centuries. Gold will rise multiples of its current value. I expect a 200% rise from current levels, at the minimum. There are many reasons, which we don’t have room to cover here, why gold could see a 400% or 500% gain.

This should produce a corresponding bull market in gold stocks… perhaps of a magnitude we’ve never seen. A true mania for gold stocks could develop over the coming years. This could make anyone who buys gold stocks at their current depressed levels very rich.

What History Teaches Us About Great Speculations

Many of the best speculations have a political element to them. Governments are constantly creating distortions in the market, causing misallocations of capital. Whenever possible, the speculator tries to find out what these distortions are, because their consequences are predictable.

They result in trends you can bet on. Because you can almost always count on the government to do the wrong thing, you can almost always safely bet against them. It’s as if the government were guaranteeing your success. The classic example, not just coincidentally, concerns gold.

The U.S. government suppressed its price for decades while creating huge numbers of dollars before it exploded upward in 1971. Speculators who understood some basic economics positioned themselves accordingly. Over the next nine years, gold climbed more than 2,000% and many gold stocks climbed by more than 5,000%.

Governments are constantly manipulating and distorting the monetary situation. Gold in particular, as the market’s alternative to government money, is always affected by that. So gold stocks are really a way to short government — or go long on government stupidity, as it were.

The bad news is that governments act chaotically, spastically.

The beast jerks to the tugs on its strings held by various puppeteers. But while it’s often hard to predict price movements in the short term, the long term is a near certainty. You can bet confidently on the end results of chronic government monetary stupidity. Mining stocks are extremely volatile for that very same reason. That’s good news, however, because volatility makes it possible, from time to time, to get not just doubles or triples but 10 baggers, 20 baggers, and even 100 to 1 shots.

When gold starts moving higher, it’s going to direct a lot of attention towards gold stocks. When people get gold fever, they are not just driven by greed, they’re usually driven by fear as well, so you get both of the most powerful market motivators working for you at once. It’s a rare class of securities that can benefit from fear and greed at once. Remember that the Fed‘s pumping-up of the money supply ignited a huge bubble in tech stocks in the late ‘90s, and then an even more massive global bubble in real estate that burst in 2008. But they’re still creating tons of dollars.

This will inevitably ignite other asset bubbles. Where? I can’t say for certain, but I say the odds are extremely high that as gold goes up, a lot of this funny money is going to pour into these gold stocks, which are not just a microcap area of the market but a nanocap area of the market. The combined market capitalization of the 10 biggest U.S. listed gold stocks is less than 6% of the size of Facebook. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When the public gets the bit in its teeth and wants to buy gold stocks, it’s going to be like trying to siphon the contents of the Hoover Dam through a garden hose.

Gold stocks, as a class, are going to be explosive. Now, you’ve got to remember that most of them are junk. Most will never, ever find an economical deposit. But it’s hopes and dreams that drive them, not reality, and even those without merit can still go up 10, 20, or 30 times your entry price. And companies that actually have the goods can go much higher than that.

You buy gold, the metal, because you’re prudent. It’s for safety, liquidity, insurance. The gold stocks, even though they explore for or mine gold, are at the polar opposite of the investment spectrum; you buy them for their extreme volatility, and the chance they offer for spectacular gains. It’s rather paradoxical, actually.

Why Gold Stocks Are an Ideal “Asymmetric Bet”

Because these stocks have the potential to go 10, 50, or even 100 times your entry price, they offer something called “asymmetry.” You probably learned about symmetry in grade school. It’s when the parts of something have equal form and size. For example, cut a square in half and the two parts are symmetrical.

Symmetry is attractive in some forms. The more symmetrical someone’s face is, the more physically attractive they are considered to be. Symmetry is often attractive in architecture. But when it comes to investing and speculating in the financial markets, the expert financial operator eschews symmetry. Symmetry is for suckers.

The expert financial operator hunts for extreme asymmetry.

An asymmetric bet is one where the potential upside of a position greatly exceeds its potential downside. If you risk $1 for the chance of making $20, you’re making an asymmetric bet. Amateur investors too often risk 100% of their money in the pursuit of a 10% return. These are horrible odds. But the financially and statistically illiterate take them. You might do better in a casino or most sports betting. It’s one of the key reasons most people struggle in the market.

I’ve always been more attracted to asymmetric bets… where I stand a good chance of making 10, 50, even 100 times the amount I’m risking. I’m not interested in even bets. I’m only taking the field if my potential upside is much, much greater than my potential downside. Because of the extreme asymmetry gold stocks offer—because of their extreme upside potential when they’re cheap—you don’t have to take a big position in them to make a huge impact on your net worth. A modest investment of $25,000 right now could turn into $500,000 in five years. It has happened before and it will happen again.

Right now gold stocks are near a historic low. I’m buying them aggressively. At this point, it’s possible that the shares of a quality exploration company or a quality development company (i.e., one that has found a deposit and is advancing it toward production) could still go down 10, 20, 30, or even 50 percent. But there’s an excellent chance that the same stock will go up by 10, 50, or even 100 times. I hate to use such hard to believe numbers, but that is the way this market works. When the coming resource bubble is ignited, the odds are excellent we’ll be laughing all the way to the bank in a few years.

No one, including me, knows that the Mania Phase is just around the corner. But I’ve operated in this market for over 40 years. This is a very reasonable time to be buying these stocks. And it’s absolutely a good time to start educating yourself about them. There’s an excellent chance a truly massive bubble is going to be ignited in this area. If so, the returns are going to be historic.

Regards,

Doug Casey
Founder, Casey Research

Note: Casey Research’s resident gold stock specialist, Louis James, has just unveiled a proprietary strategy for selecting small gold stocks. Over a 30 year historical backtest, the strategy had a 95% success rate. Remarkably, the strategy even produced winning plays during gold’s $700 drop from 2011 to 2015.

So, if the Mania Phase Doug predicts takes off, the asymmetrical gains you’ll see from these small gold stocks could hand you 10, 50, or even 100 times your money. Here, I explain the full story on Louis’ strategy so you can review it for yourself

This article was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

The Most “Horrifying” Chart in the World

By Justin Spittler

Larry Fink is terrified. Fink runs BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. The company manages a whopping $5.1 trillion. That's more than Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, or Wells Fargo. It’s more than the annual economic output of Japan, the world’s third largest economy. This makes Fink one of the most powerful people on the planet. Obviously, you don’t climb to the top in Wall Street by being easily rattled. But right now, Fink’s nervous. He’s worried about “a lot of dark shadows that could impact the direction of the marketplace.”

Fink’s especially worried about consumer confidence.…
Consumer confidence measures how everyday people feel about the economy and their own financial situation. It’s subjective. You can’t measure it. That’s why some investors don’t take it seriously. But they should. After all, sentiment is what really drives stocks. It’s far more important than earnings, valuations, or the health of the economy. It’s why stocks can rally despite serious fundamental problems. According to a recent survey by the University of Michigan, consumer confidence has been climbing since 2011. It recently hit the highest level since 2004.

Americans have good reason to be confident.…
After all, we just elected our first “investor” president. Unlike Obama, Donald Trump wants to put American businesses first. He also wants to cut taxes, ease regulations, and rebuild American infrastructure. These policies should help U.S. companies and workers. That’s why Americans are so confident. It’s why the S&P 500 has rallied 9% since Election Day. It’s why the Dow Jones Industrial Average just topped 20,000 for the first time ever. You can clearly see Trump’s impact on stocks in the chart below. You’ll also notice that consumer confidence hasn’t been this high since just before the 2008–2009 financial crisis.

Thanks to Trump, greed is in the air again…
But this isn’t a good thing. It’s a warning sign. Today, consumer confidence is even higher than it was in 2007. And we all know how that ended. The S&P 500 plunged 57% over the next two years. The Russell 2000, which tracks 2,000 small U.S. stocks, dropped 60%.

Fink doesn't think you should be buying stocks right now.…
He explained why in a Yahoo! Finance investor event last week:

When consumer confidence was at the lowest, that was the low point of the equity market. You should be buying then. And now consumer confidence is high and the S&P 500 is very high. Maybe you should be selling now.

Fink’s not the only Wall Street legend who thinks this, either. Sir John Templeton, one of the greatest stock pickers ever, famously said:

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.

This is why Fink thinks the chart above is “horrifying.” But that’s not the only thing keeping him up at night.

Fink says “we’re living in a bipolar world”.…

He continued:

In my conversations with CEOs in Europe and CEOs in the United States they may be very bullish about what may come but most business people are not investing today.

Some folks might find this confusing. After all, the stock market is supposed to reflect the health of the economy. But Dispatch readers know this hasn’t been the case lately. Since 2009, the U.S. economy has grown just 2% per year. That makes the current recovery one of the slowest on record. Meanwhile, stocks have been rallying for nearly eight years. That makes the current bull market one of the longest in U.S. history.

U.S. stocks are now incredibly expensive.…
Companies in the S&P 500 are trading at a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) of 28.9. That’s the highest level since the dot-com bubble. It means U.S. stocks are 73% more expensive than normal. And that’s just one measure. Last week, we showed you two other key metrics that prove how absurdly expensive U.S. stocks are today. In short, there’s not much upside in U.S. stocks, even if Trump can breathe life into the economy.

We recommend you take precautions today.…
You can get started by holding more cash and owning physical gold. Setting aside cash will help you avoid big losses if stocks crash. Gold will also help you weather the next financial crisis. That’s because gold is the ultimate safe haven asset. It’s survived everything from stock market crashes to full blown currency crises. It will survive the next financial crisis, too. To be clear, we aren’t saying U.S. stocks will crash this year or even the next. But these simple steps will protect you should the “unthinkable” happen.

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Chart of the Day

Silver is rallying. Today’s chart shows the performance of the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV), whichs tracks the price of silver. It’s the most active silver fund in the world. Every day, investors trade more than 9 million shares of SLV. This makes it a great way to track investor demand for silver. You can see in the chart below that SLV has been in a downtrend “channel” since last summer. A channel is a range that an asset trades in. The bottom line acts as support. The top line acts as resistance.

You can see SLV just “broke out” of this channel. It’s now in an uptrend. This tells us that silver should head higher in the near future. If you own silver, this is great news. If you don’t, now might be a good time to buy some. Just don’t wait too long. Silver could be headed much higher from here.

The article The Most “Horrifying” Chart in the World was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Forget Dow 20,000… This Indicator Tells the Real Story

By Justin Spittler

It finally happened. For the last six weeks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been bumping against a ceiling. Yesterday, it broke through. The Dow topped 20,000 for the first time ever. Most investors are excited about this. After all, 20,000 is a big, round number. It feels like a psychological win for the bulls.

But it’s not an invitation to dive into stocks…not yet, at least. We need to see if the Dow can hold this level.
If it closes the week above 20,000, stocks could keep rallying. If it doesn’t, nothing has really changed. It could even be a warning sign. Until then, sit tight. Don’t chase stocks higher…stick to your stop losses…and hold on to your gold.

Don’t lose sight of the big picture, either.…

Remember, U.S. stocks are still very risky:

➢ They’re expensive. The S&P 500 is trading at a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) of 28.4. That means large U.S. stocks are 70% more expensive than their historical average.

➢ We’re still in a profits recession. Profits for companies in the S&P 500 stopped growing in 2014.

➢ And Donald Trump is president of the United States. Trump could do wonders for the economy and stock market. But he could also unleash a major financial crisis. It's still too early to tell.

As you can see, "Dow 2,000" isn't necessarily a reason to celebrate. In fact, as we told you two weeks ago, there's something much more important you should be watching right now.

The bond market is flashing danger.…
The bond market is where companies borrow money. It’s the cornerstone of the global financial system.
It’s also bigger and more liquid than the stock market. This is why the bond market often signals danger long before it shows up in stocks.

The bond market started to unravel last summer.…
Just look at U.S. Treasury bonds. In July, the 10-year U.S. Treasury hit a record low of 1.37%. Since then, it’s nearly doubled to 2.55%. This is a serious red flag. You see, a bond’s yield rises when its price falls. In this case, yields skyrocketed because bond prices tanked. The same thing has happened in long term Treasury, municipal, and corporate bonds.

Bill Gross thinks bonds are entering a long-term bear market.…
Gross is one of the world’s top bond experts. He founded PIMCO, one of the world’s largest asset managers. He now runs a giant bond fund at Janus Capital. Two weeks ago, Gross said the bull market in bonds would come to an end when the 10-year yield tops 2.6%. Keep in mind, bonds have technically been in a bull market since the 1980s.

According to Gross, this number is far more important than Dow 20,000. And we’re only 50 basis points (0.5%) from hitting it. In other words, the nearly four-decade bull market in bonds could end any day now.
When it does, Gross says bonds will enter a secular bear market... meaning bonds could fall for years, even decades. This is why Casey Research founder Doug Casey has urged you to “sell all your bonds.”

If you haven’t already taken Doug’s advice, we encourage you to do so now.…
You should also take a good look at your other holdings. After all, problems in the bond market could soon spill over into the stock market. If this happens, utility stocks could be in big trouble. Utility companies provide electricity, gas, and water to our homes and businesses. They sell things we can’t live without. Because of this, most utility companies generate steady revenues. This helps them pay dependable dividends.

Many investors own utility stocks just for their dividends.…
That’s why a lot of people call them “bond proxies.” Utility stocks don’t just pay generous income like bonds, either. They also trade with bonds. You can see this in the chart below. It compares the performance of the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). XLU holds 28 utility stocks. TLT holds long-term Treasury bonds. XLU has traded with TLT for the better part of the last year. Both funds crashed after the election, too. But XLU has since rebounded.

You might find this odd. After all, the two funds basically moved in lockstep until a couple months ago.
But there’s a perfectly good explanation for this.…

Utility stocks pay more than Treasury bonds.…
Right now, XLU yields 3.4%. TLT yields 2.6%. That might not sound like big deal. But those extra 80 basis points (0.8%) provide a margin of safety. You see, the annual inflation rate is currently running at about 2.1%. That means the U.S. dollar is losing 2.1% of its value every year.

That’s bad news for everyday Americans. It’s also bad for bondholders. It means investors who own TLT are earning a “real” return (its dividend yield minus inflation) of 0.5%. Meanwhile, you’d be earning a real return of 1.3% if you owned XLU. Of course, utility stocks should pay more than government bonds. They’re riskier, after all. Unlike the government, utility companies can’t print money whenever they want. If they run into financial problems, they could go out of business.

Today, investors don’t seem to mind taking on extra risk for more income. But that could soon change…

Inflation could skyrocket under Donald Trump.…
If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know why. For one, Trump wants to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure projects. While this could help the economy in the short run, the U.S. government will have to borrow money to fix the country’s decrepit roads, bridges, and power lines. This would likely produce a lot more inflation. If that happens, real returns could shrink even more. And that could trigger a selloff in utility stocks and other "bond proxies," like telecom and real estate stocks. In short, if you own these types of stocks just for their dividends, you might want to consider selling them now.

We recommend sticking to dividend-paying stocks that meet the following criteria.…
The company should be growing. If it isn’t, you probably own the stock just for its dividend. That’s a bad strategy right now. It should have a low payout ratio. A payout ratio can tell us if a company’s dividend is sustainable or not. A payout ratio above 100% means a company is paying out more in dividends than it earns in income. Avoid these companies whenever possible.

It shouldn’t depend on cheap credit. After the 2008 financial crisis, a lot of companies borrowed money at rock-bottom rates to pay out dividends. If rates keep rising, these companies could have a tough time paying those dividends. If you own stocks that check these boxes, your income stream should be in good shape for now.

Chart of the Day

“Trump Years” stocks are on a tear. We all know U.S. stocks took off after the election. But some stocks did better than others. Bank stocks spiked on hopes that Trump would deregulate the financial sector. Oil and gas stocks rallied because Trump is pro-energy. Industrial stocks have also surged since Election Day.

Industrial companies manufacture and distribute goods. They include construction companies and equipment makers. E.B. Tucker, editor of The Casey Report, thinks these companies will stay very busy while Trump rebuilds America’s hollowed out economy.

He’s so sure of it that he recommended four “Trump Years” stocks last month. One of those stocks is up 11% in just six weeks. Yesterday, it spiked 8% after the company crushed its fourth quarter earnings report.
The company announced higher sales, fatter profits, and lower taxes. It raised its guidance for the year. In other words, it expects to make a lot more money this year…now that Trump’s in charge.

You can learn about this company and E.B.’s other “Trump Years” stocks by signing up for The Casey Report. Click here to begin your free trial.

The article Forget Dow 20,000… This Indicator Tells the Real Story was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Two Days with Real and Wannabee Elite

By Doug Casey

Recently I made a few comments about the world’s self-identified “elite”, and also about the migrants that are plaguing Europe. Happily, I was able to do some one stop shopping on both of these topics when I was in New York to attend a very elitist and Globalist conference. I’m not going to name it because its organizers/sponsors are business partners of mine. 

And since they spent multi millions putting it together, and I pretty much despised their invitees, I’m not about to identify it exactly. Just let me say that the conclave has aspirations to become another Council on Foreign Relations, Bilderberg, Bohemian Grove, Atlantic Council, or Davos. Same kind of people, same ideas. Uniformly bad ideas. But ideas that the public has been brainwashed into thinking are good.

A lot of people are afraid these groups control the world, or at least governments. They don’t. They’re social gatherings for high level government employees and NGO types who like to network, and feel relevant. And lots of their minions, who enjoy the rich food, pretending they’re big shots too, while listening to pontifications by actual big shots. They hope they can cozy up to them, close enough to ride a richer gravy train.

The avowed purpose of this conclave was to “build the public private partnership”—the exact definition of fascism. So there were also lots of big league corporate types who want to “make a difference”, and rich guys who want to be known for something besides having money.

Warren Buffett

The program opened with Warren Buffett’s talk about how he didn’t need $50 billion, didn’t believe anybody else did either, and why he was a “philanthropist” who would give it all away. The avuncular Buffett is an investment genius; I enjoyed and agreed with everything he said on investing. But, like his friend Bill Gates, he’s also an autistic idiot savant. That’s someone who is a genius at one thing, and a fool at most everything else.

Most people assume that if you know about investing, you must also know about economics, which is a related discipline. But that’s completely untrue. It’s analogous to thinking that someone who knows how to drive a car also knows how one works. Economics is the study of how men go about producing and consuming; investing is the practice of allocating capital for maximum returns. Buffett’s grasp of economics is shallow, conventional, and unrelated to his success as an investor.

Furthermore, if Buffett was really a philanthropist he wouldn’t dissipate his $50 billion on poor people in Third World countries (which is where I suspect most of what’s left after administrative expenses will go). That will assuage some liberal guilt, but will vanish without a trace like water poured into the Sahara.
And actually just make the root problem worse in many ways. If he really wants to help his fellow man, he would continue compounding capital at 20%, forever. Capital makes the world wealthy; consuming or frittering away capital makes the world poor. But enough on Buffett. He only exasperated me for about 40 minutes out of two full days.

George Soros

Much worse was George Soros. He spent his time not just passively endorsing (like Buffett), but actively promoting disastrous policies. In essence, these were his major points. 

1) Brexit should be overturned, regardless of the vote. 
2) The EU should spend at least $200 billion a year (in addition to what individual countries spend) both to make migrants welcome, and to install a Marshall Plan for Africa. 
3) All of Europe should import migrants at least proportionally to the 1mm entering Germany. He recognized that the migrants represent an “existential crisis” for Europe, but believes the solution is to accommodate them. 
4) The EU should actively arm against Russia. 
5) The EU in Brussels should be granted the right to tax.

As I listened to him I felt I’d been transported to Bizzarro World, or perhaps some magic land from Gulliver’s Travels, where everything is upside down, wrong is right, and black is white. Just as much of Soros’ presentation was on migration, so was much of the rest of the conference. It’s very much on the minds of the “elite”.

His new Marshall Plan would consist of Europe and the US sending trillions to African governments to develop the Continent. Strange, really. Africa has received about a trillion of foreign aid over the last 50 years; that capital has either been wasted on uneconomic boondoggles, or shipped off to the bank accounts of the ruling class. Soros is far from naïve; he’s got to know this. 

I wonder what he actually hopes to accomplish, and why? After all, he’s 84 years old, and doesn’t need any more money. Well, it’s hard to be sure how some people’s minds are wired. And, as The Phantom once asked, “Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men?”

Incidentally—completely contrary to conventional wisdom—I consider the much lauded Marshall Plan to have been an unnecessary and destructive boondoggle. But this isn’t the moment to explain why that’s true.
As I said above, the Summit was centered on migration. I’ve recently commented on the subject, and will reiterate a few points below before returning to the views of the Globalists and self-identified Elite.

A Word on Migration

Let me start by saying I’m all for immigration and completely open borders to enable opportunity seekers from anyplace to move anyplace else. With two big, critically important, caveats..... 

1) there can be no welfare or free government services, so everyone has to pay his own way, and no freeloaders are attracted 
2) all property is privately owned, to minimize the possibility of squatter camps full of beggars.

In the absence of welfare benefits, immigrants are usually the best of people because you get mobile, aggressive, and opportunity seeking people that want to leave stagnant and repressive cultures for vibrant and liberal ones. That was the case with the millions of immigrants who came to the US in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. And they had zero in the way of state support.

But what is going on in Europe today is entirely different. The migrants coming to Europe aren’t being attracted by opportunity in the new land so much as the welfare benefits and the soft life. Western Europe is a massive welfare state that providing free food, housing, medical care, schooling, and living expenses to all comers. Benefits like these will naturally draw in poor people from poor countries. For the most part they’ll be unskilled, poorly educated, and many will have a bad attitude. The question arises why—since they’re almost all Muslims—they aren’t being welcomed by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, or Brunei, which are wealthy Muslim countries.

What we’re talking about here is the migration of millions of people of different language, different race, different religion, different culture, and different mode of living. If you’re an alien and you’re 1 out of 10,000, or 1000, or even 100, you’re a curiosity, an interesting outsider. And you’d have to integrate in the new society. But an influx of millions of migrants can only destroy the old culture. And guarantee antagonism—especially when the locals are forced to pay for it. In many ways, what’s happening now isn’t just comparable to what happened 2,000 years ago with the migration of the Germanic barbarians into the Roman Empire. It’s potentially much more serious.

Although most of the migration will be out of Africa, it’s supposed to be official Chinese policy to migrate about 300 million Chinese into Africa in the years to come. They’re employed in building roads, mines, railroads and other infrastructure. The Africans like the goodies, but don’t like the Chinese. It has the makings of a race war a generation or so in the future. 

The problem won’t only be tens or hundreds of millions of Africans migrating to Europe, but tens or hundreds of millions of Chinese migrating to Africa. The EU is a huge aggravating factor with the migrant situation. Brussels is full of globalists and doctrinaire socialists who not only promote bad policies, but make the whole continent pay for the mistakes of its most misguided members.

The migrants, who are manifestly unwelcome in Hungary, Poland, and other Eastern European countries, will prove another big impetus for the breakup of the EU. Millions of Africans will want to emigrate, especially to the homelands of their ex-colonial masters in Europe. The colonizers are now themselves being colonized. Fair enough, I suppose; a case of the sins of the father truly devolving upon the sons.

If I was an African from south of the Sahara, I’d absolutely try to get to Italy or Greece or France or Spain or on my way to Northern Europe to cash in on the largesse of these stupid Europeans. I’m a fan of what’s left of Western Civilization. I hate to see it washed away. But that’s what will happen if the floodgate is opened.

Unless the Europeans get in front of this situation, it’s not just some refugees from the Near East they’ll have to deal with. Especially with the economic chaos of The Greater Depression, it’s going to be many millions from Africa, and then perhaps millions more from Central Asia, and even India and Bangladesh. The world is becoming a very small place. What happens when scores of thousands of migrants set up a squatter camp someplace—with no food, shelter, or sanitary facilities? What will happen when there are scores or hundreds of squatter camps? Unlike the Goths and the Vandals, who became the new aristocracy, the chances of the Africans integrating is essentially zero. 

The situation is likely to be most stressful…..

Some will say “But you have to be charitable, you can’t just let them starve because they’ve had some bad luck”. To that I’d say an individual, or a family, can have some bad luck. But the places these people come from have had “bad luck” for centuries. Their bad luck is the consequence of their political, economic, and social systems. Their cultures—let me note the elephant in the room—are backward, degraded, and unproductive. It makes no sense, it’s idiotic, to import—at huge expense—masses of people that have a culture of “bad luck”.

On just one day recently, the Italian Coast Guard rescued 10,000 Africans off the Libyan coast—almost all men from Guinea, Gambia, Nigeria, and neighboring countries—and transported them to Italy. It’s hard to see them ever going back home. But it’s certain they’ll encourage they’re friends and families to join them.
The situation can only get worse. Why? In 1950, the 250 million Africans were only 9% of the world’s population; it’s 27% now, but there will be 4 billion, for 40%, in 2100. 

Making that observation is highly politically incorrect, and presumably racist. I’ll have more to say on racism in the future. But the fact is that Africa has always been an economic basket case; if Vasco Da Gama had thrown out a wheel when he was rounding the Cape, he would also have had to throw out an instruction book on how to use it. But nobody could have read it.

Be that as it may. But Europeans made things worse when they conquered the continent and divided it up into political entities that made zero sense from a cultural, linguistic, religious or tribal viewpoint. That guaranteed chaos for the indefinite future. That’s why it’s always a mad scramble to get control of the government in these countries, in order to loot the treasury, entrench ones cronies, and punish ones enemies. Until there’s a bloody revolution, and the shoe goes on another foot.

Here’s the takeaway. The population of Africa is going up by several billion people in the years to come. The net wealth of the continent is going nowhere. The locals will want to move wholesale to Europe, where the living is easy. And where the politically correct Cultural Marxists are anxious to destroy their own civilization.
Meanwhile, there are hundreds of think tanks in the U.S. alone, most located within the Washington Beltway who believe that these people should be encouraged to migrate, or imported en masse. They’re populated by partisan academics, ex-politicos, retired generals and others circulating through the revolving doors of the military/industrial/political/academic complex.

They’re really just propaganda outlets, funded by foundations, and donors who want to give an intellectual patina to their views and, to use a popular phrase, “make a difference”.

Think tanks, and their cousins, the lobbyists and the NGOs, are mostly what I like to call Running Dogs, who act as a support system for the Top Dogs in the Deep State. Their product is “policy recommendations,” which influence how much tax you have to pay and how many new regulations you have to obey. Think tanks are populated almost exclusively by people who are, simultaneously, both “useful idiots” and “useless mouths.” They’re no friends of the common man.

The migration policies they’re promoting are creating minor chaos now. With world-class chaos in the wings.
Let me repeat, and re-emphasize, what I said earlier. The free-market solution to the migrant situation is quite simple. If all the property of a country is privately owned, anyone can come and stay as long as he can pay for his accommodations. When even the streets and parks are privately owned, trespassers, beggars, squatters, migrants, vagrants and the like have a problem. A country with 100% private property, and zero welfare, would only attract people who like those conditions. And they’d undoubtedly be welcome as individuals. But “migration” would be impossible.

This is how the migration problem could be solved. You don’t need the government. You don’t need the army. You don’t need visas or quotas. You don’t need laws. You don’t need treaties to solve the migration problem. All you need is privately owned property and the lack of welfare benefits. Instead, think tanks will come up with some cockamamie political solution. But the good news is that it will speed up the disintegration of the EU.

My prediction that the Continent will one day just be a giant petting zoo for the Chinese is intact—assuming the current wave of migrants approve. There will also be an exodus of capital and people from Europe to parts of Latin America, plus to the U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. This is, obviously, bad for Europe and good for the recipient countries, since these emigrants will be educated and affluent.
But, having said that, let me take you back to the conference where migration was a major topic of discussion by the elite.

Back to the Conference

Those are my thoughts on the topic of migration. Here’s what other attendees thought....

I spent a couple of hours listening to a panel entitled “Corruption in Latin America”. A bunch of ex-Presidents commiserated on how awful corruption is, and how new laws ought to be passed to stamp it out once and for all. They were all skilled, even enthusiastic, bullshit artists, who knew how to blather meaninglessly, saying nothing. They all agreed that illegal drugs were a major cause for corruption, but nobody thought to mention that maybe the problem wasn’t the drugs, but the fact they were illegal.
None of these people understood the actual causes and the nature of corruption. Which is ironic, since most of them were quite wealthy—something that’s hard to do on a Third World politician’s salary.

One especially naive panelist, representing the US State Department, said “many see the private sector as part of the problem”. What, one might ask, actually causes the problem?

The short answer was supplied by Tacitus 1900 years ago. He said “The more numerous the laws, the more corrupt the State”. That’s because the laws invariably have economic consequences, benefiting one group at the expense of another. The most practical way to obviate them is by paying off an official.

Naturally, nobody even broached the subject that laws themselves cause corruption. And corruption is actually not only necessary, but is encouraged, whenever economic laws are passed. Plan your life around corruption remaining endemic, no matter how much self-righteous apparatchiks blather on about it at conferences.

General David Petraeus

I listened to David Petraeus offer solutions to the world’s problems. They were what you might expect from an ex-general and CIA director. To David it’s all about using force and money “intelligently”. It never seemed to cross his mind that adventures like those in Iraq and Afghanistan ($6 trillion and counting, to accomplish absolutely nothing) might actually bankrupt the US. Or that he was intimately involved in the ongoing disaster.

My takeaway is that, after David collects say $20 million in the “private sector”, we’ll see him resurface as a candidate for the US Presidency. He’s smooth, polished, and confident. I was somewhat surprised that some general wasn’t tapped this election for a VP slot, since the military is the US Government’s most trusted branch by far. Rest assured there will be a general running in 2020.

Donald Rumsfeld also held the stage for 40 minutes. He was affable, likable, and entertaining, as are many sociopaths. Not even the faintest acknowledgement passed his lips about how the current migrant disaster was rooted in his unprovoked attacks on backward countries on the other side of the world. But why should he care? He’s already collected his $20 million in the “private sector” after many years of “service”.

The Migration Round Table

Another highlight was listening to a Round table on “The Public/ Private Partnership on Migration”. It might as well have been a meeting of the Soviet politburo, where everyone implicitly accepted the same totally flawed principles, speaking seriously and sincerely to each other about how they plan to change the world. These people were mainly interested in reinforcing each others views, like a conversation on NPR.

How to solve the refugee/migrant situation? No solutions were proposed by any of the 40 high government officials and think tank big shots. Everybody’s attention focused on two things: how awful the situation is, and how they can feed, clothe, and house the masses. I was amused at the sight of parasites talking to parasites about parasites.

References were made to “broader economic integration”, a nebulous phrase that can mean almost anything, and no references at all to freer markets. There were continual references to a “partnership” between the public and private sectors. It made me feel I was among aliens. How can there be a partnership between producers, and those who not only steal 50% of the production, but then want to direct where the remainder goes. These people all seemed to believe that if you earned money, you didn’t deserve to keep it. But if you needed money, you were entitled to it.

There was a discussion about how the crisis that started in 2007 has set back the progress of Africa. But zero discussion of what caused the crisis. Or what would happen when it stated up again (which is happening right now). The only discussion of how to create prosperity was about Special Economic Zones—areas insulated from the taxes and regulations affecting the rest of the country. Needless to say no one thought to ask why an entire country couldn’t become an SEZ.

A question occurred to me about the several hundred thousand refugees/migrants that still might be imported to the US—although it's much less likely with Trump as the President: Exactly who will pay for them, and how much will the pleasure of their company cost? These people have nothing but the rags on their backs. 

Will they be ferried to the US on commercial airliners? When they land, how will they be clothed? They’ll need to be fed for an indefinite period. And housed. And entertained. Mosques must be found, or founded, so they can worship. Very few have any marketable skills, and very few even speak English. Most of them could just stay on welfare for the rest of their lives.

It seems completely insane. But it’s clearly the “Globalist agenda”, endorsed by all these people. Of course there’s some perverse justice at work if the US winds up having to import a few million Muslim refuges. The Muslim world was, at least, stable before Bush and Obama went on a wild “regime change” adventure. Now chaos reigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya.

One justification put forward for migration to Europe was that its population was dropping, and it would need people, if only to take care of the oldsters. For what it’s worth, we’ll have robots doing that within a decade.

Conclusion?

You’re perhaps wondering how any sensible person could sit there and listen to such blather and nonsense for two days without reacting. Of course I wanted to debunk about 95% of what I heard. But the Summit was structured so that Guests didn’t have a forum from which to challenge the Nomenklatura and their Apparatchiks. So I sat there, observing an alien species in a sort of formalized mating ritual. No opportunity presented itself to shock these copulating dogs with a bucket of cold water. Certainly not from a seat in the Peanut Gallery.

Are conferences like this one, and its lookalikes, a waste of time? Completely. And keep that in mind before you make a contribution to a charity or an NGO. Could it have been worthwhile? Yes. If it had addressed the questions I posed above. But, even then, the answers would have been worthless, given the attendees.

I think migration is going to be one of the biggest problems in the next generation. It’s a sure thing that not just millions, but tens of millions of “feet people” and “boat people” are going to try to overrun Europe. If they’re accepted and resettled it will destroy what’s left of Western Civilization. If they’re repelled, it could result in millions of deaths, and be quite a scandal. I don’t know how this will sort out. But it’s going to be a big deal. And ugly.

What should you do? Own plenty of gold and silver, and make sure that you have one or more residences that are out of harm’s way.

Editor’s Note: If you haven't seen it yet, Doug Casey has just released his latest and most controversial prediction yet. It involves a shocking currency ban (not gold) that may soon take effect under the Trump presidency. 

Already, Fed members have met in private to discuss this matter. And the savings of millions could be devalued if this goes into effect. 

To watch the video and discover the 4 steps Doug is taking to prepare, click here.

The article Doug Casey’s Two Days with the Real and Wannabee Elite was originally published at caseyresearch.com.