Crude Oil Prices - Will They Hold Above Key Support Level Or Begin To Unwind?

Talk of a global recession may prompt a broad decline in crude oil prices as the excesses of the past 10+ years unwind. This unwinding process pushed to the forefront for traders and investors has been prompted by a massive inflationary expansion after the COVID-19 lock downs. How will it play out in the short term and long term?

We believe crude oil will contract as the initial reduction in demand associated with high priced gasoline and oil products and the threat of a global recession recede. This decline in crude oil prices is complicated as China/Asia economic and COVID crisis events continue to disrupt consumer discretionary income and asset valuation levels.....Continue Reading Here.

Fed Comments Help To Settle Global Market Expectations

The recent Fed comments should have helped settle the global market expectations related to if and when the Fed will start raising rates and/or taking further steps to curb inflation trends. 

Additionally, the Fed has been telegraphing its intentions very clearly over the past few months, providing ample time for traders and investors to alter their approach to pending monetary tightening actions. Read the full Fed Statement here.

In my opinion, foreign markets are more likely to see increased risks and declining price trends for two reasons. 

First, at risk nations/borrowers struggle to reduce debt levels. 

Second, foreign market traders/investors struggle to adapt to the transition away from speculative “growth” trends. 

I think the U.S. Dollar may continue to show strength over the next 4+ months as the foreign traders pile into U.S. economic strength while the Fed initiates their tightening actions.

So it makes sense to me that global markets would recoil from Fed tightening while debt-heavy corporations/nations seek relief from rising debt obligations....Continue Reading Here.

Forget Dow 20,000… This Indicator Tells the Real Story

By Justin Spittler

It finally happened. For the last six weeks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been bumping against a ceiling. Yesterday, it broke through. The Dow topped 20,000 for the first time ever. Most investors are excited about this. After all, 20,000 is a big, round number. It feels like a psychological win for the bulls.

But it’s not an invitation to dive into stocks…not yet, at least. We need to see if the Dow can hold this level.
If it closes the week above 20,000, stocks could keep rallying. If it doesn’t, nothing has really changed. It could even be a warning sign. Until then, sit tight. Don’t chase stocks higher…stick to your stop losses…and hold on to your gold.

Don’t lose sight of the big picture, either.…

Remember, U.S. stocks are still very risky:

➢ They’re expensive. The S&P 500 is trading at a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) of 28.4. That means large U.S. stocks are 70% more expensive than their historical average.

➢ We’re still in a profits recession. Profits for companies in the S&P 500 stopped growing in 2014.

➢ And Donald Trump is president of the United States. Trump could do wonders for the economy and stock market. But he could also unleash a major financial crisis. It's still too early to tell.

As you can see, "Dow 2,000" isn't necessarily a reason to celebrate. In fact, as we told you two weeks ago, there's something much more important you should be watching right now.

The bond market is flashing danger.…
The bond market is where companies borrow money. It’s the cornerstone of the global financial system.
It’s also bigger and more liquid than the stock market. This is why the bond market often signals danger long before it shows up in stocks.

The bond market started to unravel last summer.…
Just look at U.S. Treasury bonds. In July, the 10-year U.S. Treasury hit a record low of 1.37%. Since then, it’s nearly doubled to 2.55%. This is a serious red flag. You see, a bond’s yield rises when its price falls. In this case, yields skyrocketed because bond prices tanked. The same thing has happened in long term Treasury, municipal, and corporate bonds.

Bill Gross thinks bonds are entering a long-term bear market.…
Gross is one of the world’s top bond experts. He founded PIMCO, one of the world’s largest asset managers. He now runs a giant bond fund at Janus Capital. Two weeks ago, Gross said the bull market in bonds would come to an end when the 10-year yield tops 2.6%. Keep in mind, bonds have technically been in a bull market since the 1980s.

According to Gross, this number is far more important than Dow 20,000. And we’re only 50 basis points (0.5%) from hitting it. In other words, the nearly four-decade bull market in bonds could end any day now.
When it does, Gross says bonds will enter a secular bear market... meaning bonds could fall for years, even decades. This is why Casey Research founder Doug Casey has urged you to “sell all your bonds.”

If you haven’t already taken Doug’s advice, we encourage you to do so now.…
You should also take a good look at your other holdings. After all, problems in the bond market could soon spill over into the stock market. If this happens, utility stocks could be in big trouble. Utility companies provide electricity, gas, and water to our homes and businesses. They sell things we can’t live without. Because of this, most utility companies generate steady revenues. This helps them pay dependable dividends.

Many investors own utility stocks just for their dividends.…
That’s why a lot of people call them “bond proxies.” Utility stocks don’t just pay generous income like bonds, either. They also trade with bonds. You can see this in the chart below. It compares the performance of the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). XLU holds 28 utility stocks. TLT holds long-term Treasury bonds. XLU has traded with TLT for the better part of the last year. Both funds crashed after the election, too. But XLU has since rebounded.

You might find this odd. After all, the two funds basically moved in lockstep until a couple months ago.
But there’s a perfectly good explanation for this.…

Utility stocks pay more than Treasury bonds.…
Right now, XLU yields 3.4%. TLT yields 2.6%. That might not sound like big deal. But those extra 80 basis points (0.8%) provide a margin of safety. You see, the annual inflation rate is currently running at about 2.1%. That means the U.S. dollar is losing 2.1% of its value every year.

That’s bad news for everyday Americans. It’s also bad for bondholders. It means investors who own TLT are earning a “real” return (its dividend yield minus inflation) of 0.5%. Meanwhile, you’d be earning a real return of 1.3% if you owned XLU. Of course, utility stocks should pay more than government bonds. They’re riskier, after all. Unlike the government, utility companies can’t print money whenever they want. If they run into financial problems, they could go out of business.

Today, investors don’t seem to mind taking on extra risk for more income. But that could soon change…

Inflation could skyrocket under Donald Trump.…
If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know why. For one, Trump wants to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure projects. While this could help the economy in the short run, the U.S. government will have to borrow money to fix the country’s decrepit roads, bridges, and power lines. This would likely produce a lot more inflation. If that happens, real returns could shrink even more. And that could trigger a selloff in utility stocks and other "bond proxies," like telecom and real estate stocks. In short, if you own these types of stocks just for their dividends, you might want to consider selling them now.

We recommend sticking to dividend-paying stocks that meet the following criteria.…
The company should be growing. If it isn’t, you probably own the stock just for its dividend. That’s a bad strategy right now. It should have a low payout ratio. A payout ratio can tell us if a company’s dividend is sustainable or not. A payout ratio above 100% means a company is paying out more in dividends than it earns in income. Avoid these companies whenever possible.

It shouldn’t depend on cheap credit. After the 2008 financial crisis, a lot of companies borrowed money at rock-bottom rates to pay out dividends. If rates keep rising, these companies could have a tough time paying those dividends. If you own stocks that check these boxes, your income stream should be in good shape for now.

Chart of the Day

“Trump Years” stocks are on a tear. We all know U.S. stocks took off after the election. But some stocks did better than others. Bank stocks spiked on hopes that Trump would deregulate the financial sector. Oil and gas stocks rallied because Trump is pro-energy. Industrial stocks have also surged since Election Day.

Industrial companies manufacture and distribute goods. They include construction companies and equipment makers. E.B. Tucker, editor of The Casey Report, thinks these companies will stay very busy while Trump rebuilds America’s hollowed out economy.

He’s so sure of it that he recommended four “Trump Years” stocks last month. One of those stocks is up 11% in just six weeks. Yesterday, it spiked 8% after the company crushed its fourth quarter earnings report.
The company announced higher sales, fatter profits, and lower taxes. It raised its guidance for the year. In other words, it expects to make a lot more money this year…now that Trump’s in charge.

You can learn about this company and E.B.’s other “Trump Years” stocks by signing up for The Casey Report. Click here to begin your free trial.

The article Forget Dow 20,000… This Indicator Tells the Real Story was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Do You Own the Next Enron?

By Justin Spittler

Companies are hiding more from you than you realize. Back in the late 90s, energy company Enron was a Wall Street darling. From 1998 to 2000, its stock surged 342%. It became America’s seventh biggest corporation…but the company was a farce. Management used shady accounting to inflate its sales and profits. When the fraud came to light, Enron’s stock plummeted. In 2001, it filed for bankruptcy.

In April, former Enron CEO Andy Fastow issued a serious warning…..
Fastow was one of the main actors in the Enron scandal. He spent six years in jail for his crimes. According to Fastow, many corporate executives are now doing what he did at Enron. He even accused tech giant Apple (AAPL) of misleading investors. Business Insider reported:

His point – an entirely correct one – is that the world’s largest company today is engaged in tax dodging behavior that, while perhaps technically legal, is clearly designed to increase profits and inflate the stock by misleading and confusing regulators (and perhaps investors) via a massively complex web of entities – exactly what he did at Enron! And this is 100% routine, common behavior among most large US companies.

Some people might find Fastow’s claim ridiculous. He is a convicted felon, after all. But Casey readers know better than to trust Corporate America.

Regulators have accused Valeant (VRX) and SunEdison (SUNE) of similar crimes..…
You’ve probably heard about the drug maker Valeant and the renewable energy company SunEdison. Their downfalls have been two of the year’s biggest investing stories. Like Enron, both companies were hot investments. From January 2013 to July 2015, Valeant gained 332%. SunEdison’s stock surged 892% over the same period.

Like Enron, both companies used “creative accounting.” According to The Wall Street Journal, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is investigating whether “SunEdison misrepresented its cash position to investors as its stock collapsed.” Valeant is under investigation for its pricing and accounting practices. And like Enron, both stocks have crashed. SunEdison plunged 99% before it announced plans to file bankruptcy. Valeant’s stock has plummeted 89%.

The mainstream media paints Valeant and SunEdison as a couple “bad apples”…
According to most reports, it’s rare for public companies to pull tricks on investors. But if you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know that’s not true. For the past few months, we’ve been telling you about the huge surge in share buybacks. A share buyback is when a company buys its own stock from shareholders.

Buybacks reduce the number of shares that trade on the market. This boosts a company’s earnings per share, which can lead to a higher stock price. But buybacks do not actually improve the business. They just make it look better “on paper.” According to research firm FactSet, 76% of the companies in the S&P 500 bought back their own shares between November and January. Most companies used debt to pay for these buybacks. The Wall Street Journal reported last week:

The biggest 1,500 nonfinancial companies in the U.S. increased their net debt by $409 billion in the year to the end of March, according to Société Générale, using almost all—$388 billion—to buy their own shares, net of newly issued stock. Companies have become far and away the biggest customer for their own shares.

Companies are also using “financial engineering” to make their businesses appear healthier…
Financial engineering is when companies use accounting tricks to goose their sales, profits, or cash on the balance sheet. It’s how Enron, Valeant, and SunEdison hid problems from investors. Many other companies are doing similar things.

As you may know, U.S. corporations are required to report “GAAP” earnings per share. GAAP based earnings comply with accepted accounting guidelines. A growing number of companies are also reporting “adjusted” earnings that do not comply with GAAP. Many companies use adjusted earnings to strip out “temporary” factors like the strong dollar or a warm winter. Management decides what to leave out and include when measuring adjusted earnings.

Two-thirds of the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average report adjusted earnings…
In 2014, adjusted earnings were 12% better than GAAP earnings. Last year, they were 31% better. Companies say adjusted earnings give a more complete picture of their business. But it’s becoming obvious that companies are using non-GAAP earnings to hide weaknesses.

As Dispatch readers know, the U.S. is in its weakest “recovery” since World War II. Europe, Japan, and China are all growing at their slowest pace in decades too. With the economy so weak, many companies have had to “get creative” to grow earnings.

Sales for companies in the S&P 500 have fallen four straight quarters..…
Earnings are on track to decline a fourth straight quarter. That hasn’t happened since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. These results would be even uglier if companies didn’t report adjusted earnings.

You see, it’s much easier for companies to mask weak sales or profits when the economy is growing. When the economy slows, those problems become too big to hide. Right now, the global economy is clearly slowing. So expect to hear about more “Enrons” in the coming months.

The stock market is a dangerous place to put your money right now..…
If you're going to invest in stocks, keep three important things in mind. You should avoid investing in businesses you don’t understand. Many hedge funds wish they had followed this advice with Valeant and SunEdison. Despite these companies’ complex and unclear business models, some of the largest hedge funds in the world invested in them. This earned Valeant and SunEdison the nickname “hedge fund hotels.” We also encourage you to avoid companies with a lot of debt. These firms will struggle to pay the bills as the economy worsens.

Finally, we recommend you steer clear of companies that need buybacks to increase earnings. Buybacks can give stocks a temporary boost, but they’re no way to grow a business. In short, money spent on buybacks is money not spent on new machinery, equipment, or anything else that can help a company grow. It’s especially a poor use of cash when stocks are expensive…like they are today.

We encourage you to set aside cash and own physical gold..…
A cash reserve will help you avoid big losses during the next big selloff. It will also put you in a position to buy world-class businesses for cheap after the “rotten apples” are exposed. Physical gold is another proven way to defend your wealth. Gold has served as real money for centuries because it has a rare set of qualities: It’s durable, transportable, easily divisible, has intrinsic value, and is consistent across the world.

It’s also protected wealth through the worst financial crises in history. Investors buy it when they’re nervous about stocks or the economy. This year, gold is up 22%. It’s at its highest level since January 2015. For other proven strategies to protect your money from a stock market crash, watch this short video. In it, you’ll learn how to fully “crisis proof” your wealth. Click here to view this free presentation.

Chart of the Day

The U.S. stock market is wobbling on one leg. Dispatch readers know buybacks have been a major driver of U.S. stocks. Since 2009, S&P 500 companies have shelled out more than $2 trillion on buybacks. As noted, buybacks can make earnings look better “on paper.” They can also prop up share prices. With the economy slowing and earnings in decline, buybacks have been one of the things keeping stocks afloat…but even that’s starting to give way.

Today’s chart compares the performance of PowerShares Buyback Achievers Fund (PKW) this year versus the S&P 500. PKW tracks companies that bought back more than 5% of their shares over the past year. Holdings include McDonald's (MCD), Lowes (LOWE), and Macy’s (M).

From March 2009 to May 2015, PKW gained 314%. The S&P 500 rose 215% over the same period. Since then, PKW has fallen 10%. The S&P 500 is down 3%. Investors appear to be losing confidence in companies that buy a lot of their own stock. That’s a big problem for the stock market, which is showing major signs of weakness.

The article Do You Own the Next Enron? was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

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Breakfast Inflation is Either Wonderful or Terrible

By John Mauldin

Is inflation making breakfast more or less affordable? It depends on what you order. Recently my Mauldin Economics colleague, Tony Sagami, showed how basic grocery staples are rising in price. His evidence: the Wisconsin Farm Bureau’s semiannual “Marketbasket” survey. The survey shows prices for a basic grocery list rising 2.7% in the last year.

Not every item rose, however. The full breakdown since last spring is tells us more.

The six month price changes span a wide range. Eggs jumped 72% and milk dropped 13%. Several other items had double digit percentage changes. The list illustrates how differently we can perceive inflation. A hearty breakfast devotee who ate eggs (up 72%) and toast (white bread +25%) saw very high breakfast inflation.

Someone who liked their daily Cheerios (down 6%) and milk (down 13%) had a different experience. Other goods and services have similar differences. That’s why “average” CPI inflation never precisely reflects our own individual experiences. Few people are exactly average. We all spend our money differently.

No surprise, then, that some of us see high inflation while others don’t.

This article is based on John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter of Nov. 1, 2015. You can read the full issue here.

The article Breakfast Inflation is Either Wonderful or Terrible was originally published at mauldineconomics.com

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The Global Depression and Deflation Is Currently Underway!

"The clear and present danger is, instead, that Europe will turn Japanese: that it will slip inexorably into deflation, that by the time the central bankers finally decide to loosen up it will be too late." Paul Krugman, "The Euro: Beware of What you Wish for", Fortune (1998)

Most central bank policy makers, investors, and analysts around the world today are gripped by the worry of declining growth rates, dwindling international commodity prices, high unemployment, and other macroeconomic figures.

The Global Depression and Deflation Is Currently Underway!

However, not many have given much consideration to one economic factor that has the potential to disrupt global economies, shut down economic activities, and become a catalyst for a worldwide depression. We are talking about 'deflation' that if not tamed, could bring global economies to their knees creating a worldwide chaos never seen before in scale or length.

Paul Krugman, the renowned American economist and distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, had forewarned about the threat of deflation for European economies. He suggested that the European Central Bank policy makers need to look into the situation now before it's too late for them to do anything about the situation.

The Eurozone today has well entered into a deflationary phase with other major economies including the US, UK, and Japan slowly heading into the same direction. In Japan and many European economies such Greece, Spain, Bulgaria, Poland, and Sweden, prices have been decreasing gradually for the past decade. This has created a number of problems for the central bank policy makers as they try to find out ways to diffuse the negative effects of deflation such as a slump in economic activity, drop in corporate incomes, reduced wages, and many other problems. What the World can Learn from Japan's Lost Decade (1990-2000)

The impact of the ongoing global deflationary trends on economies can be gauged by what Japan had experienced during the period between 1990 - 2000, which is also known as Japan's lost decade. The collapse of the asset bubble in 1991 heralded a new period of low growth and depressed economic activity. The factors that played a part in Japan's lost decade include availability of credit, unsustainable level of speculation, and low rates of interest.

When the government realized the situation, it took steps that made credit much more difficult to obtain which in turn led to a halt in the economic expansion activity during the 1990s.

Japan was fortunate to come out of the situation unhurt and without experiencing a depression. However, the effects of that period are being felt even today as corporations feel threatened of another deflationary spiral that could eat away at their profits. The situation analysts feel is about repeat in the Western economies, and that includes the US.

Deflationary Trend Could Threaten the Fragile US Economy

Inflation rates in the US is hovering near zero percent level for the past year. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index has stayed well below the Fed's 2% target rate since March 2012. Although, the US economy hasn't entered into a deflationary stage at the moment, the continuous low level inflation despite the fed's rate being at near zero levels for about a decade has increased the possibility that the US economy could also plunge into a deflationary stage similar to that of the Euro zone.

The deflationary trend could turn out to be a big concern for policy makers and investors that may well lead to a global depression. The lingering memories of the 2008 financial crises that had literally rocked the world are still fresh in the minds of most people. That is why it's important for central banks to implement policies to fight the debilitating effects of deflation.

But, the question is how can the central banks combat the current or looming deflation trend? The Japan's lost decade has taught us that trying to contain the possibility of deflation and its negative effects can be difficult for policy makers. Economists have suggested various ways in which the debilitating effects of deflation can be countered.

However, one policy that central banks can use to fight off deflation is what economists call a Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP).

NIRP simply refers to refers to a central bank monetary measure where the interest rates are set at a negative value. The policy is implemented to encourage spending, investment, and lending as the savings in the bank incur expenses for the holders. On October 13ths I wrote in detail about NIRP. Then on October 23rd Ron Insana on CNBC talk about it here.

This unconventional policy manipulates the tradeoff between loans and reserves. The end goal of the policy is to prevent banks from leaving the reserves idle and the consumers from hoarding money, which is one of the main causes of deflation, which leads to dampened economic output, decreased demand of goods, increased unemployment, and economic slowdown.

Central banks around the world can use this expansionary policy to combat deflationary trends and boost the economy. Implementing a NIRP policy will force banks to charge their customers for holding the money, instead of paying them for depositing their money into the account. It will also encourage banks to lend money in the accounts to cover up the costs of negative rates.

Has the Negative Rates Policy Been Implemented in the Past?

Despite not being well known or publicized in the media, NIRP has been implemented successfully in the past to combat deflation. The classic example can be given of the Swiss Central Bank that implemented the policy in early 1970s to counter the effects of deflation and also increase currency value.

Most recently, central banks in Denmark and Sweden had also successfully implemented NIRP in their respective countries in 2012 and 2010 respectively. Moreover, the European Central Bank implemented the NIRP last year to curb deflationary trend in the Eurozone.

In theory, manipulating rates through NIRP reduces borrowing costs for the individuals and companies. It results in increased demand for loans that boosts consumer spending and business investment activity. Finance is all about making tradeoffs and decisions. Negative rates will make the decision to leave reserve idle less attractive for investors and financial institutions. Although, the central bank's policy directly affects the private and commercial financial institutions, they are more likely to pass the burden to the consumers.

This cost of hoarding money will be too much for consumers due to which they will invest their money or increase their spending leading to circulation of money in the economy, which leads to increase in corporate profits and individual wages, and boosts employment levels. In essence, the NIRP policy will combat deflation and thereby prevent the potential of global depression knocking at the door once more.

Final Remarks

The possibility of deflation causing another global recession is very real. Central policy makers around the world should realize that deflation has become a global problem that requires instant action. In the past, even the most efficient and robust economies used to struggle in taming inflation rates. In the coming months, most economies around the world, including the US, will have difficulty curbing the effects of deflation.

The fact is that central bank policy makers have largely ignored the possibility of deflation causing havoc in the economy similar to what happened in Japan during its "lost decade". The quantitative easing program that is being used in the US by the Feds to boost economy is not proving effective in raising the inflation rate to its targeted levels. In fact, the inflation level is drifting even lower and is hovering dangerously close to the negative territory.

Blaming the low inflation levels on the low level of oil prices is not justified. Inflation levels were hovering at low levels well before the great plunge in commodity prices. Moreover, low level inflation rates cannot be blamed on muted wage levels. The fact is that unemployment rates have decreased both in the US and the UK in the past few years, but consumer spending has largely remained unmoved.

Taming deflation is necessary if the central banks want to avoid its debilitating effects on the economy. Policies like the Quantitive Easing program used by the Feds may allow easy access to credit, dampen exchange rate, and reduce risks of financial meltdown; but it cannot prevent the possibility of another more severe situation of deflation wreaking havoc on the economy.

The concept of NIRP may seem counter intuitive at first, but it is the only effective way of combating the deflationary trend. The world economy could sink further into a deflationary hole if no action is taken to curb the trend. And the time to start thinking about it is now. Any delay could result in a global economic meltdown that may cause deep financial difficulties for millions of people around the world.

We as employees, business owners, traders and investors are about to embark on a financial journey that couple either cripple your financial future or allow to be more wealthy than you thought possible. The key is going to that your money is position in the proper assets at the right time. Being long and short various assets like stocks, bonds, precious metals, real estate etc.

Follow me as we move through this global economic shift at the Global Financial Reset Wealth System

See you in the markets,
Chris Vermeulen

Our trading partner Chris Vermeulan originally posted this article at CNA Finance

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Another Government Ponzi Scheme Starts to Crack - Do You Depend on It?

By Nick Giambruno

Government employees get to do a lot of things that would land an ordinary citizen in prison. For example, it’s legal for them to threaten and commit offensive, rather than defensive, violence. They can take property from others without their consent. They spy on anyone’s email and bank accounts whenever they please. They go into trillions of dollars in debt and then stick the unborn with the bill. They counterfeit the currency. They lie with misleading statistics and use accounting wizardry no business could get away.

And this just scratches the surface…...

The U.S. government also gets to run a special type of Ponzi scheme. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary a Ponzi scheme is.....An investment swindle in which some early investors are paid off with money put up by later ones in order to encourage more and bigger risks.

In the private sector, people who run Ponzi schemes are rightly punished for their fraud. But when the government runs a Ponzi scheme, something very different happens. It’s no secret that the Social Security system is effectively one giant Ponzi scheme.

Actually, I think it’s worse. That’s because the government uses force and the threat of force to coerce people into it. People don’t have the option to opt out. They either pay the tax for Social Security or someone with a gun will show up sooner or later. I imagine Bernie Madoff’s firm would have lasted a lot longer had he been able to operate this way.

This whole practice is particularly egregious for young people. They have no chance at collecting the future benefits the government has promised to them. But they’re hardly the only people that are going to be disappointed in the system, which will eventually break down.

There are simply too many people cashing out at the top and not enough people paying in… even with the government’s coercion. That’s a function of demographics, but also the economic reality in which there are fewer people with quality jobs for the government to sink its fangs into. I expect both of those trends to increase and strain the system.

Actually, it’s already starting to happen.

Recently, the government announced that there would be no Social Security benefit increase next year. That’s only happened twice before in the past 40 years. You see, the government links Social Security benefit increases to their own measure of inflation. If the government says “no inflation” then there are no benefit increases. It’s like letting a student grade his own paper.

So it’s no surprise that the official definition of inflation is not reflective of the real increases in the costs of living most people feel. Medical care costs are skyrocketing. Rent and food prices are reaching record highs in many areas. Electricity and utility costs are soaring. Taxes, of course, are going nowhere but up.

But the government says there’s no shred of inflation. In actuality, it amounts to a stealth decrease in benefits.
One reason for this is that they constantly change the way they calculate inflation so as to understate it. Free market analysts have long documented this sham. If you take a global view, it’s easy to see that fudging official inflation statistics is standard operating procedure for most governments.

Incidentally, governments and the financial media don’t even understand what inflation is in the first place.
To them, inflation means an increase in prices. But that is not at all how the word was originally used. Inflation initially meant an increase in the supply of money and nothing else. Rising prices were a consequent of inflation, not inflation itself.

It’s not being overly fussy to insist on the word’s proper usage. It’s actually an important distinction. The perversion of its usage has only helped proponents of big government. To use “inflation” to mean a rise in prices confuses cause and effect. More importantly, it also deflects attention away from the real source of the problem…central bank money printing. And that problem shows no signs of abating. In fact, I think the opposite is the case. The money printing is just getting started.

At least this is what we should prudently expect as long as the U.S. government needs to finance its astronomical spending, fueled by welfare and warfare policies. As long as the government spends money, it will find some way to make you pay for it - either through direct taxation, money printing, or debt (which represents deferred taxation/money printing).

It’s as simple as that.

Like most other governments that get into financial trouble, I think they’ll opt for the easy option…money printing. This has tremendous implications for your financial security. Central banks are playing with fire and are risking a currency catastrophe.

Most people have no idea what really happens when a currency collapses, let alone how to prepare. How will you protect your savings in the event of a currency crisis? This video we just released will show you exactly how. Click here to watch it now.

The article was originally published at internationalman.com.

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By John Mauldin 

There is presently a bull market in complacency. There are very few alarm bells going off anywhere; and frankly, in reaction to my own personal complacency, I have my antenna up for whatever it is I might be missing that would indicate an approaching recession.

It was very easy to call the last two recessions well in advance because we had inverted yield curves. In the US at least, that phenomenon has a perfect track record of predicting recessions. The problem now is that, with the Federal Reserve holding the short end of the curve at the zero bound, there is no way we can get an inverted yield curve, come hell or high water. For the record, inverted yield curves do not cause recessions, they simply indicate that something is seriously out of whack with the economy. Typically, a recession shows up three to four quarters later.

I know from my correspondence and conversations that I am not the only one who is concerned with the general complacency in the markets. But then, we’ve had this “bull market in complacency” for two years and things have generally improved, albeit at a slower pace in the current quarter.

With that background in mind, the generally bullish team at GaveKal has published two short essays with a rather negative, if not ominous, tone. Given that we are entering the month of October, known for market turbulence, I thought I would make these essays this week’s Outside the Box. One is from Pierre Gave, and the other is from Charles Gave. It is not terribly surprising to me that Charles can get bearish, but Pierre is usually a rather optimistic person, as is the rest of the team.

I was in Toronto for two back-to-back speeches before rushing back home this morning. I hope you’re having a great week. So now, remove sharp objects from your vicinity and peruse this week’s Outside the Box.

Your enjoying the cooler weather analyst,

John Mauldin

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A Worrying Set Of Signals

By Pierre Gave
Regular readers will know that we keep a battery of indicators to gauge, among other things, economic activity, inflationary pressure, risk appetite and asset valuations. Most of the time this dashboard offers mixed messages, which is not hugely helpful to the investment process. Yet from time to time, the data pack points unambiguously in a single direction and experience tells us that such confluences are worth watching. We are today at such a point, and the worry is that each indicator is flashing red.

Growth: The three main indices of global growth have fallen into negative territory: (i) the Q-indicator (a diffusion index of leading indicators), (ii) our diffusion index of OECD leading indicators, and (iii) our index of economically-sensitive market prices. Also Charles’s US recession indicator is sitting right on a key threshold (see charts for all these indicators in the web version).

Inflation: Our main P-indicator is at a maximum negative with the diffusion index of US CPI components seemingly in the process of rolling over; this puts it in negative territory for the first time this year.

Risk appetite: The Gavekal velocity indicator is negative which is not surprising given weak market sentiment in recent weeks. What worries us more is the widening of interest rate spreads—at the long end of the curve, the spread between US corporate bonds rated Baa and treasuries is at its widest since 2009; at the short-end, the TED spread is back at levels seen at the height of the eurozone crisis in 2012, while the Libor-OIS spread is at a post-2008 high. Moreover, all momentum indicators for the main equity markets are at maximum negative, which has not been seen since the 2013 “taper tantrum”.

These weak readings are especially concerning, as in recent years, it has been the second half of the year when both the market and growth has picked up. We see three main explanations for these ill tidings:

1) Bottoming out: If our indicators are all near a maximum negative, surely the bottom must be in view? The contrarian in us wants to believe that a sentiment shift is around the corner. After all, most risk-assets are oversold and markets would be cheered by confirmation that the US economy remains on track, China is not hitting the wall and the renminbi devaluation was a one-off move. If this occurs, then a strong counter-trend rally should ramp up in time for Christmas.

2) Traditional indicators becoming irrelevant: Perhaps we should no longer pay much attention to fundamental indicators. After all, most are geared towards an industrial economy rather than the modern service sector, which has become the main growth driver. In the US, industrial production represents less than 10% of output, while in China, the investment slowdown is structural in nature. The funny thing is that employment numbers everywhere seem to be coming in better than expected. In this view of things, either major economies are experiencing a huge drop in labor productivity, or our indicators need a major refresh (see Long Live US Productivity!).

3) Central banks out of ammunition: The most worrying explanation for the simultaneous decline in our indicators is that air is gushing out of the monetary balloon. After more than six years of near zero interest rates, asset prices have seen huge rises, but investment in productive assets remains scarce.

Instead, leverage has run up across the globe. According to the Bank for International Settlements’ recently released quarterly review, developed economies have seen total debt (state and private) rise to 265% of GDP, compared to 229% in 2007. In emerging economies, that ratio is 167% of GDP, compared to 117% in 2007 (over the period China’s debt has risen from 153 to 235% of GDP). The problem with such big debt piles is that it is hard to raise interest rates without derailing growth.

Perhaps it is not surprising that in recent weeks the Federal Reserve has backed away from hiking rates, the European Central Bank has recommitted itself to easing and central banks in both Norway and Taiwan made surprise rate cuts. But if rates cannot be raised after six-years of rising asset prices and normalizing growth, when is a good time? And if central banks are prevented from reloading their ammunition, what will they deploy the next time the world economy hits the skids?

Hence we have two benign interpretations and one depressing one. Being optimists at heart, we want to believe that a combination of the first two options will play out. If so, then investors should be positioned for a counter-trend rally, at least in the short-term. Yet we are unsettled by the market’s muted response to the Fed’s dovish message. That would indicate that investors are leaning towards the third option. Hence, we prefer to stay protected and for now are not making a bold grab for falling knifes. At the very least, we seek more confirmation on the direction of travel.

Positioning For A US Recession

By Charles Gave
Since the end of last year I have been worried about an “unexpected” slowdown, or even recession, in the world’s developed economies (see Towards An OECD Recession In 2015). In order to monitor the situation on a daily basis, I built a new indicator of US economic activity which contains 17 components ranging from lumber prices and high-yield bond spreads to the inventory-to-sales ratio. It was necessary to construct such an indicator because six years of extreme monetary policy in the US (and other developed markets) has stripped “traditional” cyclical economic data of any real meaning (see Gauging The Chances Of A US Recession).

Understanding this diffusion index is straightforward. When the reading is positive, investors have little to worry about and should treat “dips” as a buying opportunity. When the reading is negative a US recession is a possibility. Should the reading fall below – 5 then it is time to get worried – on each occasion since 1981 that the indicator recorded such a level a US recession followed in fairly short order. At this point, my advice would generally be to buy the defensive team with a focus on long dated US bonds as a hedge. This is certainly not a time to buy equities on dips.

Today my indicator reads – 5 which points to a contraction in the US, and more generally the OECD. Such an outcome contrasts sharply with official US GDP data, which remains fairly strong. Pierre explored this discrepancy in yesterday’s Daily (see A Worrying Set Of Signals), so my point today is to offer specific portfolio construction advice in the event of a developed market contraction. My assumption in this note is simply that the US economy continues to slow. Hence, the aim is to outline an “anti-fragile” portfolio which will resist whatever brickbats are hurled at it.

During periods when the US economy has slowed, especially if it was “unexpected” by official economists, then equities have usually taken a beating while bonds have done well. For this reason, the chart below shows the S&P 500 divided by the price of a 30 year zero coupon treasury.

A few results are immediately clear:

• Equities should be owned when the indicator is positive.
   
• Bonds should be held when the indicator is negative.
   
• The ratio of equities to bonds (blue line) has since 1981 bottomed at about 50 on at least six occasions. Hence, even in periods when fundamentals were not favorable to equities (2003 and 2012) the indicator identified stock market investment as a decent bet. 
Today the ratio between the S&P 500 and long dated US zeros stands at 75. 

This suggests that shares will become a buy in the coming months if they underperform bonds by a chunky 33%. The condition could also be met if US equities remain unchanged, but 30 year treasury yields decline from their current 3% to about 2%. Alternatively, shares could fall sharply, or some combination in between. 


Notwithstanding the continued relative strength of headline US economic data, I would note that the OECD leading indicator for the US is negative on a YoY basis, while regional indicators continue to crater. The key investment conclusion from my recession indicator is that equity positions, which face risks from worsening economic fundamentals, should be hedged using bonds or upping the cash component.

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The article Outside the Box: A Worrying Set Of Signals was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.

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Closing the Sausage Factory

By John Mauldin

“Bureaucracy destroys initiative. There is little that bureaucrats hate more than innovation, especially innovation that produces better results than the old routines. Improvements always make those at the top of the heap look inept. Who enjoys appearing inept?”

– Frank Herbert, Heretics of Dune

“Economies naturally grow. People innovate as they go through life. They also look around at what others are doing and adopt better practices or tools. They invest, accumulating financial, human and physical capital.

Something is deeply wrong if an economy is not growing, because it means these natural processes are impeded. That is why around the world, since the Dark Ages, lack of growth has been a signal of political oppression or instability. Absent such sickness, growth occurs.”

– Adam Posen, “Debate: The Case for Slower Growth”

Today’s letter will be shorter than usual, because I’m at Camp Kotok in Grand Lake Stream, Maine, where the first order of business today is trying to outfish my son (not likely to happen, this year). But I’ve been looking closer at productivity barriers, and I want to give you some points to ponder.

The New Normal?

Like many of you readers, I’m old enough to remember a time when 2.3% annual GDP growth was a disappointment. We always knew America could do better. Not anymore, apparently. Some people actually cheered last week’s first estimate for 2Q real GDP growth. It was 4.4% in nominal terms, but inflation brought the figure back down. While certain segments are growing like crazy, for the most part we are muddling along in a slow growing malaise. You might even call it “stagnant.”

I for one still think the United States can do more. We have a large population of intelligent people who want to build a solid future for their children. They’re willing to work hard to do it. If that’s not happening – and clearly it isn’t – some barrier must be standing in their way. What is this barrier to productivity and growth? There are actually several, but government red tape is one of the biggest. I thought about this after reading an excellent Holman Jenkins column in the Wall Street Journal last week.

Jenkins led me to an audio recording of an interesting discussion on “The Future of Freedom, Democracy and Prosperity,” conducted at a symposium held at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution last month.
Government research & development funding has fallen off considerably from its peak in the 1970s moonshot days. This holds back worker productivity. The federal government is doing too much to slow down business and not enough to boost it.

The three economists who spoke at Stanford all pointed to important productivity barriers emanating from Washington DC.....

One of the participants, Hoover economist John Cochrane, spoke of fears that America is drifting toward a “corporatist system” with diminished political freedom. Are rules knowable in advance so businesses can avoid becoming targets of enforcement actions? Is there a meaningful appeals process? Are permissions received in a timely fashion, or can bureaucrats arbitrarily decide your case by simply sitting on it?

The answer to these questions increasingly is “no.” Whatever the merits of 1,231 individual waivers issued under ObamaCare, a law implemented largely through waivers and exemptions is not law-like. In such a system, where even hairdressers and tour guides are subjected to arbitrary licensing requirements, all the advantages accrue to established, politically connected businesses.

The resources that businesses put into complying with government regulations is staggering. I have often envied people outside the highly regulated financial industry for their freedom to operate rationally. In my business we seem to spend half our time – and an ungodly fraction of our money – just maneuvering through the regulatory morass.

Intrusive federal regulations touch every part of the economy:

• Energy and mining companies have to deal with environmental protection rules.
• Drug companies and health care providers must satisfy the FDA and Medicare.
• Cloud technology companies have to process FBI and NSA demands for user information.
• Retailers and consumer product makers are required to abide by the fine print on millions of product labels.

I could go on, but you get the point. Anything you do attracts bureaucratic oversight now. We may laugh at “helicopter parents” hovering over their children at school, but we all have a helicopter government looking over our shoulders at work.

Before anyone calls me an anarchist, I think some government regulation is perfectly appropriate. We all want clean drinking water. Everyone appreciates knowing our cars meet crash survival standards. I’m glad FAA is keeping order in the skies.

The problem arises when agencies enforce confusing, contradictory, and excessive regulations and try to micromanage the nation’s businesses. Every business owner I know is glad to play by the rules. They just want to know what the rules say, and that is frequently very hard to do.

A few weeks ago, in “Productivity and Modern-Day Horse Manure,” I explained that growth is really quite simple: if we want GDP to grow, we need some combination of population growth and productivity growth.

The US population is growing, thanks mainly to immigration, but the effectiveness of the workforce is another matter. Baby Boomer retirements are rapidly removing productive assets from the economy. To offset that trend, we need to make younger workers more productive.The red tape that constantly spews out of Foggy Bottom is not helping matters.

Regulatory Capture

The red tape hurts the economy overall, but it does help certain parties. The largest players in any niche often “capture” their regulators. Then they use their influence to tilt enforcement away from themselves and toward smaller competitors.

Put simply, new regulations can be great for your business if you are already well established and have the resources to comply with government mandates. New entrants rarely have those resources. The resulting lack of competition boosts profits for the big players but hurts consumers. The competition that would normally lead to better, less expensive goods and services never happens.

Holman Jenkins makes another great point about how over regulation affects growth.

Another participant, Lee Ohanian, a UCLA economist affiliated with Hoover, drew the connection between the regulatory state and today’s depressed growth in labor productivity. From a long-term average of 2.5% a year, the rate has dropped to 0.7% in the current recovery. Labor productivity is what allows rising incomes. A related factor is a decline in business start ups. New businesses are the ones that bring new techniques to bear and create new jobs. Big, established companies, in contrast, tend to be net job shrinkers over time.

Recall our economic growth formula: population growth plus productivity growth. The US population grew at a peak rate of 1.4% in 1992, and growth has been trending down ever since. Now it is around 0.75% per year. Add that to 0.7% productivity growth, and you see why Jeb Bush’s 4% growth target will be so hard to hit.

Blame Flows Downhill

Business leaders love to complain about the bureaucrats who run Washington’s alphabet-soup agencies. I think the problem goes deeper. With only a few exceptions, the regulators I’ve met over the years have been competent professionals. They weren’t intentionally trying to hurt my business. Often the regulations confused them as much as they confused me.

The real blame, I think, starts on Capitol Hill. Our legislative process is a sausage factory. Congress passes vague, complicated laws riddled with exceptions for this and zero tolerance for that. The result is superficially attractive but a mess inside. People in the alphabet agencies then have to remove the sausage skin and make sense of the contents. This would be a tough job for anyone. I certainly don’t envy them.

Jenkins mentions Obamacare’s convoluted waivers and exemptions. Even its advocates admit the law is a crazy mess. But how and why did it get that way?

To continue reading this article from Thoughts from the Frontline – a free weekly publication by John Mauldin, renowned financial expert, best selling author, and Chairman of Mauldin Economics – please click here.

The article Thoughts from the Frontline: Closing the Sausage Factory was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.

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Silver is Vital to Human Existence. Check Out the New Way We Intend to Profit.

By Jeff Clark

It’s the news everyone dreads—a call from the hospital. And it’s about one of the most important people in the world…...Your mother.

Every ALL CAPS ITEM below contains silver or is required in its use.

You hear the nurse talking urgently through your TELEPHONE and you realize it’s serious….

You grab your REMOTE CONTROL and turn down the volume on your PLASMA TV that’s playing your favorite DVD movie. You push the BUTTON and the SPEAKERS go mute. You press “save” on the KEYBOARD of your COMPUTER.

“Yes, she’s okay,” the nurse tells you. “But you need to come to the HOSPITAL right away.” That’s all you need to hear. You yell to your spouse and grab your CELLPHONE to call your siblings. “Is she alright?” your wife asks frantically. She was using the VACUUM CLEANER and WASHING MACHINE and didn’t hear the conversation.

“Yes, but hurry,” you reply, reaching to turn off the STOVE.

Your wife springs into action—she pushes the TOYS out of the way, grabs a WATER BOTTLE from the REFRIGERATOR and closes the MICROWAVE door.

You run to the bedroom and put on that new SUNBLOCK SHIRT she got you and check yourself in the MIRROR. You notice the glint off your SOLAR PANELS shines brightly through the WINDOW. You’re sweating and are glad the AIR CONDITIONER and AIR PURIFIER are working.

Your wife opens the LATCH to the front door. You notice she’s wearing those EARRINGS you got her for Christmas, the ones you put in with the CD of her favorite singer.

You unlock the car with your REMOTE KEY and rev up the ENGINE. Your wife opens the POWER WINDOWS while you adjust the POWER SEATS.

You leave the RADIO off, and are impatient at the STOPLIGHT, even though you can already see the CELLPHONE TOWERS on top of the hospital. Your wife is talking to your other family members on her CELLPHONE.

You pull up to the toll booth and the SCANNER beeps you through quickly. Your wife glances at her WATCH, and you remember she needs a new BATTERY.

You enter the hospital through the AUTOMATIC DOOR and a receptionist uses an IPAD to give you the room number. The indoor temperature is cool and you remember reading about the new INSULATION the hospital used in construction. You quickly push the ELEVATOR BUTTON for the second floor.

You reach the room and there is your mother, lying on a RECLINING BED, with a BREATHING TUBE in her mouth. She’s connected to NUMEROUS HOSPITAL DEVICES, some of which display readouts on a COMPUTER SCREEN. You try not to panic, as you see various SURGICAL INSTRUMENTS lying on a nearby SILVER tray.

“Your mother is on MEDICATION,” says a doctor walking into the room. He has a STETHOSCOPE around his neck and EYEGLASSES perched on his nose. “She fell and sustained some injuries, but she will be okay.” You see the BANDAGES on her face and arms, and the doctor notices your concern.

“We’ll take some X-RAYS to be sure she didn’t break any bones,” he says. “And she’s already on ANTIBIOTICS, so we’ll catch any infection before it starts.” You take a deep breath of relief as you realize she’ll be okay. You grasp your mother’s arm and notice she’s still wearing her favorite BRACELET.

The doctor uses a LAPTOP to update her status. The nurse uses a WATER PURIFIER to fill the water pitcher and sets it on the ANTI-SCRATCH surface of the nearby table. You settle into a PLASTIC CHAIR beside your mother and take a deep, relaxing breath. It then dawns on you just how much…..

Silver Is Essential to Modern Life

There are numerous medical examples like this every day, where silver served a cornerstone purpose to treat a hospital patient. In fact, if you’ve ever been treated by a doctor or admitted to a hospital, you’ve been a direct recipient of one or more of the medical benefits of silver. From simple bandages to life-saving equipment in operating rooms, silver is quite literally a lifesaving precious metal.

Silver is used in nearly every major industry today, from biocides and electronics to solar panels and batteries. In fact, silver is so embedded in modern life that you do not go one day without using a product made with or by silver. It’s everywhere, even if you don’t see it.

Due to the exponential increase in the number of uses for this precious metal, demand has exploded. Check out silver’s growth…

• Jewelry and silverware use is up 27.2% since 2011.

• India imported 5,500 tonnes of silver last year, 180% more than just two years ago.

• Solar power accounted for 29% of added electricity capacity in America last year. “Eventually solar will become so large that there will be consequences everywhere,” says the US Solar Energy Industries Association.

• China’s solar industry is exploding—it represented about 0.2% of the global market in 2009, but last year soared to 17%.

• Silver demand in China exceeded a quarter million ounces last year for the first time in history.

• New uses for silver continue to be discovered. The latest fashion—a “scough”—uses silver nanoparticles to trap and kill germs and pollutants.

• Total industrial demand is projected to increase 5% per year through 2016—and outpace global GDP growth.

• In spite of the fall in price, ETF demand soared in 2014, as total holdings exceeded the 2011 record high.

Demand is relentless.

But Here’s the Best Part…

If you’re an investor, the price of silver is poised for a massive rebound, after one of the most severe bear markets in history. Silver has declined three consecutive years—and hasn’t fallen four straight years since 1991. The price is so undervalued that adjusted for inflation, $17 silver is equivalent to about $4 in the year 2000!

In fact, silver is currently trading below its price before the financial crisis struck in 2008, and before the first QE program was introduced. It’s basically trading as if no money has been printed!

There is a clear disconnect between this precious metal and its price.

And that is our opportunity. The silver price has overreacted so dramatically to the downside that it is one of the most compelling investments today. In fact, it’s hard to find a more distorted market full of opportunity.

While hopefully you won’t need silver to save your life anytime soon, we’re convinced it will be a portfolio-saving investment in the very near future.

Just like gold, a stash of silver bullion will help us maintain our standard of living. In fact, silver may be more practical to use for small purchases, as there will be times you may not want to sell a full ounce of gold. And in a high inflation/decaying dollar scenario, the silver price is likely to exceed consumer price inflation, giving us further purchasing power protection.

The bottom line is that silver is quite possibly the buying opportunity of this decade. The next few years could be very exciting. And if you like bargains, silver’s neon “Sale!” sign is flashing like a disco ball.
To take advantage of this potentially life-changing setup, we have a special offer in the just-released issue of BIG GOLD…..

All investors should own a stash of sovereign bullion coins—Eagles, Maple Leafs, Philharmonics, etc. They’re the most recognizable around the world and the most liquid, an important trait when it comes time to sell.

However, we’ve identified a potentially lucrative trend in the silver market, where we can buy bullion coins with numismatic potential. In other words, these coins could increase in value much more than standard bullion coins. Even many veteran silver investors have not caught on to this trend.

How do we know these coins have numismatic upside? Because it’s already happened with similar coins. In fact, a similar coin from 2011 is now selling for near a 100% premium. And this occurred while precious metals were in a bear market!

Right now, you can buy this coin for roughly the same premium as a silver Eagle. In other words, there is essentially no risk to buying these coins—if for some reason they never accrue any numismatic value, they’ll still always sell for at least the price of bullion since they contain a full ounce.

And here’s the best part: our recommended dealer has discounted these coins exclusively for BIG GOLD readers. The price is lower than you’ll find anywhere else in the bullion market, handing us even further savings. We also include a similar discount on a gold coin with numismatic potential.

There’s much more to our May issue… We detail why we think the next bull market in gold could kick into high gear very soon (it’s in Jeff Clark’s introduction). It’s a development most mainstream investors are completely overlooking—which is our opportunity, because they’ll be surprised by this event and rush into the precious metals market literally overnight. If we’re right, it could light a fire under the gold price.

But you need to invest now, before it takes place, and while the discounted premium on these coins is still available. Either way, don’t let the current bear market fool you—it’s stretched to an extreme and will shift into a new bull market soon. Markets cycle, as history has repeatedly shown, and this market is due for its next upcycle.

Test drive BIG GOLD at no risk, with a 3 month, money back guarantee. It comes with the discount on the two bullion products that have numismatic potential, plus all our current stock recommendations, including tables that show the prices they’d hit if they matched past bull markets. The potential gains are enormous—and a tremendous opportunity if you don’t own precious metals stocks.

If you don’t like it, cancel. But we think you’ll find tremendous value for the low price. Get started now.

Jeff Clark
COT Precious Metals Analyst


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Will Gold Win Out Against the US Dollar?

By Louis James

It is an essential impossibility to solve problems created by excess debt and artificial liquidity with more of the same. That’s our credo here at Casey Research, and the reason why we believe the gold price will turn around and not only go higher, but much, much higher.

While fellow investors around the world may not agree with gold loving contrarians like us, they are buyers: gold is up in euros and almost everything else, except the dollar.

The dollar’s rise has been strong and seems all but unstoppable. But look at it in big picture terms, as in the chart below, and ask yourself how sustainable the situation is.

I’m skeptical of reading too much into such charts. A peak like the one in the early 1980s would certainly take the USD much higher, and for several years to come. But still, this is an aberration. It’s not the new normal, but rather the new abnormal.

More to the point, gold hasn’t collapsed since the dollar began its latest surge last July. Just look at this one-year chart of gold vs. the US dollar. The dollar is up sharply (in EUR, as a proxy for everything-not-the-dollar and for comparability to the chart below), but gold is only moderately down.

Gold has been trading almost sideways over the last year.

That might seem like damnation by faint praise, but it’s critically important. With the USD skyrocketing and commodities plummeting, gold should be dropping like—well, like a gold balloon—if the critics are right and it has no practical value at all, except to dentists and fashion accessory designers.

But gold is money, the best store of wealth millennia of human experience have devised, and more and more people are recognizing this. Consider this chart of gold vs. the euro, which documents my contention that people outside the US do not see gold as a barbarous relic, but as an essential holding to safeguard their future.

Pretty much everywhere but in the US, gold is up, not down.

This chart supports my view that gold rebounded last November when it breached its 2013 low because international buyers saw that as an opportunity. The US has gone from primarily exporting inflation to exporting gold and inflation.

The fact that the dollar has risen faster than gold has dropped has important, positive effects on miners operating outside the US. If costs are paid in Canadian dollars, Mexican pesos, euros, or really hard-hit currencies like the Brazilian real, then those costs have just gone way down relative to the price of gold.

Of course, there’s a good chance that there’ll be more sell-offs before the gold bull resumes its charge… but they should be regarded as opportunities. Because once the gold market rises again, the best small-cap mining stocks have the potential to go vertical.

Watch eight industry experts discuss where we are in the gold cycle, and how to prepare your portfolio for gains of up to 500% or even 1,000%, in Casey’s recent online event, GOING VERTICAL. Click here for the video.


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Bears Run For Cover!

From our trading partner Phil Flynn....

Ultra bears are starting to change their tune on oil as weak Chinese manufacturing data and strong manufacturing data in Germany both point to better demand. China's demand may rise as the Chinese government will be forced to act swiftly to reach their growth target and should soon add stimulus increasing oil demand. Factory activity in China fell to 49.2, according to HSBC, a number that should force the Chinese government's hand.

In Germany, we are already seeing the QE impact on oil demand. The Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing and services industries across the region rose to a much stronger than expected 54.1 ked by a 0.4 percent expansion in Germany. Germany is the beneficiary of being the strongest economy in the Eurozone at a time when the ECB central bank has launched unprecedented stimulus. On top of that you see the U.K. inflation rate come in at the lowest rate in history. The inflation rate fell below zero for the first time in history and all of a sudden this QE madness is likely to continue.

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Now one might think that might be bearish as the dollar might continue its historic upward move as the rate differential outlook could cause continued safe haven buying. But now it seems that the Fed may be influenced into not rating rates quickly as the dollar strength is causing more problems. We saw in the FOMC that Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned that the Fed will not be impatient in raising rates. The Fed's Stanley Fischer suggested that the Fed will be data, and perhaps dollar dependent on raising rates and warned that there would not be a "smooth upward path" for interest rates hikes.

Oil bears are also counting on another big inventory increase. Yet data from Genscape, the private forecaster, is suggesting that the build might be much less than the 4 million barrel builds that is being bandied about. Genscape reports that the increase of less than 2 million barrels are around 1.6 million. That should reduce fears of storage over flowing. In fact the Energy Information Administration reported that although inventory levels at Cushing are at their record high, storage utilization (inventories as a percent of working storage capacity) are not at record levels. Capacity utilization at Cushing is now 77%, a large increase from a recent low of 27% in October 2014. However, utilization reached 91% in March 2011, soon after EIA began surveying storage capacity twice a year, starting in September 2010."

See Phil on the Fox Business Network and follow him on Twitter @energyphilflynn!

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2015 Outlook: What You Really Need to Know

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

In the January issue of BIG GOLD, I interviewed 17 analysts, economists, and authors on what they expect for gold in 2015. Some of those included what we affectionately call our Casey Brain Trust—Doug Casey, Olivier Garret, Bud Conrad, David Galland, Marin Katusa, Louis James, and Terry Coxon. The issue was so popular that we decided to reprint this portion.

I think you’ll find some very insightful and useful reading here (click on a link to read his bio)…..

Doug Casey, Chairman

Jeff: The Fed and other central banks have kept the economy and markets propped up longer than you thought they could. Has the Fed succeeded in staving off crisis?

Doug: I’m genuinely surprised things have held together over the last year. The trillions of currency units created since 2007 have mostly inflated financial assets, creating bubbles everywhere. There’s an excellent chance that the bubble will burst this year. I don’t know whether it will result in a catastrophic deflation, extreme inflation, or both in sequence. I’m only sure it will result in chaos and extreme unpleasantness.

Jeff: Are we still going to get rich from gold stocks? Or should we face reality and start exiting?

Doug: The fact so many people are discouraged with gold and mining stocks is just another indicator that we’re at the bottom. Gold and silver are now, once more, superb speculations. And I think we’ll see some 10-to-1 shots in gold stocks—if not this year, then 2016. I can afford to wait with those kinds of returns in prospect.

Olivier Garret, CEO

Jeff: The crash in the general markets we warned about didn’t materialize. Have those risks dissipated, or should we still expect to see a major correction?

Olivier: Last October the risk of a very severe market correction was indeed very serious; hence our call to subscribers to batten down the hatches, tighten their portfolios, and have cash and gold on hand. We warned of further downturn across all commodities, including oil. We also highlighted the dollar would be strong and that an excellent short term speculation was to be long 10 to 30 year Treasuries, as they would be considered a safe haven.

Let’s look at where we are today. Clearly, the S&P did not extend its correction after its initial dip in mid-October. In light of the possibility of a perfect storm coming, the Fed announced that it may not end QE in early 2015 as anticipated if the economy failed to continue to pick up. Then the Bank of Japan announced its version of QE infinity, followed by the largest Japanese pension fund’s decision to invest in equities worldwide.

The bulls were reassured and came back with a vengeance; the crash was averted. That said, fundamentals are still very weak, and market growth is concentrated within the largest-cap stocks. Mid- and small-caps are hurting, and many economic indicators are still concerning.

Jeff: What about lower energy prices—aren’t these good for the economy?

Olivier: In theory, yes. In practice, there is another crisis brewing. Most of the development of new shale resources in the US has been financed by debt based on oil prices of $80 and above. This easy debt was immediately securitized, just like home mortgages were in 2003-2006, and we have a monstrous bubble about to pop with oil around $55. The potential risk of another derivative crisis is as high or higher than in 2007.

Jeff: Does that mean the inevitable is imminent?

Maybe, maybe not. We know central bankers will do whatever it takes to provide liquidity to the markets. That said, I do not believe central bankers are wizards endowed with supernatural powers that enable them to stem all crises. Bernanke told us in 2007 and 2008 that there was no real estate crisis and that he had everything under control—will Janet Yellen be better?

My view is that our subscribers should be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. Sacrifice a bit of performance for safety, and use money you can afford to lose to speculate on opportunities that could bring outsized upside. I believe subscribers should continue to hold cash (in dollars), gold (the ultimate hedge against crisis), and stocks in best-of-breed companies that are unlikely to collapse during a financial meltdown.

For speculations, I still believe that we should be invested in the best gold producers, in well-managed explorers with good management and first-class resources, in long-term Treasuries, and top-quality tech companies.

Jeff: As a former turnaround professional, what would signal to you that the gold market is about to turn around?

Olivier: Two things: market capitulation, and valuations for the best companies not seen in decades. The cure for low prices is low prices.

Cyclical markets do turn around, and I would rather buy low and hold on until the market turns around than buy in the later stage of a bull market. At this point, the gold market presents amazing value for the patient investor. In my opinion, that is all that matters. The gold market may take longer than I want to turn around, but I know I am near an all time low.

Bud Conrad, Chief Economist

Jeff: What role do big banks and government currently play in gold’s behavior? Is this role here to stay?

Bud: I’ve looked at the huge demand for gold from China, Russia, India, and private investors and been surprised the price has eroded over the last three years. My explanation is that the “paper gold futures market” sets the price of gold, with very little physical gold being traded. There are two parts of futures market trading: one is the minute by minute trading of only paper contracts that dominate 99% of the trading, in which every long position is matched by a short position. That is why the futures market is called “paper gold.”

Almost all trades are unwound and rolled over to another contract. Only a few thousand contracts are held into the second process, called the “delivery process.” Just a handful of big banks dominate that delivery process, so they are in a position to affect the market. There is surprisingly little physical gold used in the delivery process compared to the 200,000 ongoing paper trading of the contracts not yet in delivery every day, where no physical gold is used.

Big players can place huge orders to move the “paper price” for a short term, but eventually 99% of these paper positions are unwound before delivery, so their effect in the longer term is canceled. The delivery process is the only time where physical gold is actually sold (delivered) or purchased (stopped). The gold price can be influenced in one direction in this process by bringing gold to the market from their own account (or the reverse).

Big banks gain a big benefit from the Fed driving their borrowing rate to zero with the QE policy. Banks lend that money at higher rates and have become very profitable. If gold were soaring, then the Fed would be less inclined to keep rates low, as it would be concerned that the dollar is purchasing less and inflation is returning. So banks are happy to have the gold price contained so the Fed is more likely to keep rates low.

The above chart shows that in the delivery process for the December 2014 contract, only three banks—JP Morgan, Bank of Nova Scotia, and HSBC—handled most of the transactions. Big banks can act as either traders for other customers or as trading for the banks themselves in their in-house account. In the December contract, 90% of the gold was purchased by HSBC and JP Morgan for themselves, and Bank of Nova Scotia provided over half of the gold from its in house account. With so few players, the delivery market is prone to being dominated and price being set.

Jeff: So if the big players influence the market, why should we own gold?

Bud: I see the regulators issuing big fines to banks who have been caught manipulating foreign exchange, LIBOR, and even the London Gold Fix (which is being changed) as evidence that the methods used to influence the futures market will be curtailed by the regulators. So gold will become the recognized alternative to paper money issued in excessive amounts to fix whatever problems the governments want.

I also see the collapse of the petrodollar as leaving all currencies in limbo, which will lead to big swings in the currency wars, where ultimately gold will be the winner. Governments themselves are recognizing the value of gold, as I’m sure Russia does after the ruble collapsed in half since last summer.

David Galland, Partner

Jeff: What personal benefits have you achieved from living in Argentina?

David: Most important, my stress levels have fallen significantly. Even though I wouldn’t consider myself a high stress type, I used to be on meds for moderately high blood pressure and for acid reflux… both of which I take as signs of stress. After a few months back in Cafayate, I am med-free.

Second, living in the Argentine outback provides perspective on what actually matters in life. Life in Cafayate is very laid back, with time for siestas, leisurely meals, and any number of enjoyable activities with agreeable company. There is none of the ceaseless dosing of bad news that permeates Western cultures. After a week of unplugging, you realize that most of what passes as important or urgent back in the US is really just a charade.

Finally, my personal sense of freedom soars, as life in rural Argentina is very much live and let live.
In sharp contrast, returning to the USA for even a short visit reveals the national moniker “land of the free” as blatant hypocrisy. There are laws against pretty much everything, and worse, a no-strikes willingness to enforce them. That a person can get mugged by a group of police over selling loose cigarettes tells you pretty much everything you need to know.

Jeff: Gold and gold stocks have been hammered. What would you say to those precious metals investors sitting on losses?

David: I doubt anything anyone can say will prove a panacea for the pain some have suffered, but I do have some thoughts. Like many of our readers, I have taken big losses as well, but because I have long believed in moderation in most things, especially the juniors, I have taken those losses only on smallish positions.

Specifically, about 20% of our family portfolio is in resource investments, with about half in the stocks and the rest held as an insurance position in the physical metals, diversified internationally. So a 70% loss on 10% of our portfolio, while painful, is not the end of the world.

I guess my primary message would be to continue to view the sector for what it is: physical metals for insurance, and moderate positions in the stocks—big and small—as speculative investments.

I remain convinced the massive government manipulations that extend into all the major markets must eventually begin to fail, at which time investors will come back into the resource sector in droves. When the worm begins to turn, I anticipate the physical metals will recover first—and $1,200 gold is starting to look like a fairly solid foundation. The BIG GOLD companies, which I’m starting to personally get interested in, will rally soon thereafter.

When the producers decisively break through resistance levels on the upside, it will be time to refocus on the best juniors.

But regardless, per my first comment, while these stocks can offer life-changing returns, being highly selective and moderate in the size of your positions is the right approach. Then you can sit tight and wait for the market to prove you right.

Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist

Jeff: I loved your book The Colder War. And I liked your concluding recommendation to buy gold. Are events playing out as you expected? And does the fall in the oil price change the game at all?

Marin: First off, thank you. A lot of personal time was spent completing the book. And yes, most of the events are playing out as expected in the book. I expect this trend to continue over the next decade, as the Colder War will take many years to play out.

As I stated to all our energy subscribers and to attendees at the last Casey Conference in San Antonio, we expected a significant drop in oil prices, but it has happened a lot faster than I expected. I think we will continue to see volatility in oil; we’ll probably get a rally to the mid-$60s for WTI, but I think it will hit $45 before January 1, 2016.

This definitely makes Putin’s strategy harder to implement—but we are in the Colder War, not the Colder Battle, and wars are made of many battles. Putin’s strategy is still being implemented, and it will play out over many years.

Jeff: You’re calling for the end of the petrodollar system. This is very bullish for gold, but won’t that process take many years? Or should investors buy gold now?

Marin: The process is well underway, and yes, as I point out in the book, the demise of the petrodollar will take many years—but it will happen.

Each investor must evaluate his position and situation, but I don’t believe anyone knows when the bottom in gold will happen, and I see gold as insurance. You never know exactly when you need health insurance, but speaking from personal experience, it’s good to have, and good to have as much as you can afford, because when you need it, trust me, you won’t regret it.

Resources are in the “valley of darkness” right now—but this is part of the cycle. The key is portfolio survival. If you can get to the other side, the riches will be much greater than you can fathom. I’m speaking from personal experience. I’ve been through this before, and while it was stressful, what happened on the other side blew away my own expectations. We are in a cyclical business, and this bottom trend has been nasty—longer and lower than most have expected—but I am excited, because this is what I have been waiting for and what will take my net worth to a new level.

I see no difference in the outcome for yourself, Louis James, and all of those who follow you and survive to the other side. I believe there will be significant upside in gold stocks, especially certain junior gold explorers and developers. Subscribers are in good hands with you and Louis in that regard, and I always read my BIG GOLD and International Speculator when I get the email, regardless of where I am—the most recent being in an airport in Mexico. Keep up the great work, Jeff; even though it’s a difficult market, you’re doing the right things. It will pay off—maybe not on our desired schedules, but it will pay off.

Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist

Jeff: The junior resource sector tends to progress in cycles. Is the current down cycle about over, or should investors expect the recovery to drag out for several more years?

L: That’s essentially a market timing question—literally the million-dollar question we all wish we could answer definitively. That’s not an option, and I’m sure your readers know better than to listen to anyone who claims to be able to time the market with any precision or reliability.

That said, I don’t want to dodge the question; for what it’s worth, Doug Casey and I both feel that gold has likely bottomed. Yes, it’s true that I felt that December 2013 was the bottom—but it’s also true that most of our stocks are up since then. So, gold may have put in a double bottom, but our stocks outperformed the metal and the market.

Either way, if we’re right, the next big move should be upward, and that’s as good for BIG GOLD readers as it is for International Speculator readers.

I should also add that precious metals are not just “resources”—gold is money, not a regular commodity like pork bellies or corn. It’s the world’s most tested and trusted means of preserving wealth. So even though resource commodities tend to move as a group in cycles, gold and silver can be expected to act differently during times of crisis.

And 2015 looks fraught with crises to me… I am cautiously quite bullish for this year.

Jeff: Where will gold speculators get the biggest bang for their buck in 2015?

L: If you mean when, statistically the first and fourth quarters of the year tend to be the strongest for gold, making now a good time to buy.

As to what to buy, it depends on whether you want to maximize potential gains or minimize risk. The most conservative move is to stick with bullion, which is not a speculation at all, but a sort of forex deal in search of safety. For more leverage with the least amount of added risk, there’s the best of the larger, more stable producers that you recommend in BIG GOLD. For greater wealth-creation potential, as opposed to wealth preservation, there are the junior stocks I follow in the International Speculator.

As to where in the world to invest, I’d say it’s easier to get in on the ground floor investing in an exploration or development company working in less well-known countries—you always pay more of a premium for North American projects where the rule of law is well established. That’s obviously riskier too, but that doesn’t mean you have to go to a kleptocratic regime with a history of nationalization. There are stable places off most investors’ radars, like Ireland and Scandinavia. Africa plays may be oversold in the wake of the Ebola outbreak, but that story isn’t done yet, so even I am waiting before going long there again.

Terry Coxon, Senior Economist

Jeff: In spite of profligate money printing over the past six years, there’s been minimal inflation. Should we give up on this notion that money printing causes inflation?

Terry: No, you shouldn’t. As Milton Friedman put it, the lags between changes in the money supply and changes in prices are “long and variable.” I’m surprised we haven’t yet seen the inflationary effects of a better than 60% increase in the M1 money supply. But the Federal Reserve has essentially guaranteed that those effects are coming, since they are committed to keep printing until price inflation shows up. And when it does appear, the delayed effects of all the money creation that has occurred to date will start to take hold. There won’t be “just a little” inflation.

Jeff: What do you watch to tell you the next gold bull market is about to get underway?

Terry: Beats me. I won’t know it is happening until it’s already started. But because high inflation rates are already baked in the cake, so is another strong period for gold. That’s a reason to own gold now, and the reason is compelling if you believe, as I do, that there’s little downside. At this point, given the metal’s weak performance since 2011, virtually everyone who lacks a clear understanding of the reason for owning it has already sold. So it’s safe to buy.

 10 other analysts were also interviewed, plus Jeff recommended a new stock pick. Tomorrow’s BIG GOLD issue has another new stock recommendation—an exciting company that has the biggest high-grade deposit in the world. Now is the time to buy, before gold enters the next bull market!

Check it Out Here

The article 2015 Outlook: What You Really Need to Know was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

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