Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Coffee, Sugar

It's Saturday and that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. 

Crude oil futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 38.50 a barrel while currently trading 40.65 up over $2 for the trading week now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average for the first time in 6 months. The selloff in the U.S dollar has pushed up oil prices tremendously over the last several weeks. Oil prices are trading higher for the 3rd consecutive day; however this rally has been based on very low volume which is a little concerning as I'm sitting on the sidelines in this market as I have missed the rally to the upside. The U.S dollar has hit a 6 month low and that has propped up many commodity prices and especially crude oil as gasoline and heating oil also have rallied substantially. You will notice this at your local gas station as you are paying much more than you were just three or four weeks ago as the tide has turned in the commodity markets. Rumors are circulating that Saudi Arabia is going to urge OPEC to start cutting production, therefore, pushing up prices even higher as their economy is struggling due to low prices. However, the chart structure is poor and sometimes you miss trades as this did not meet criteria to enter into and that's exactly what happened to me, as I am leery of this market in 42/45 level as I assume production will come back onto the table because of higher prices.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Natural gas futures in the April contract is now trading above its 20 day, but still below its 100 day moving average settling last Friday in New York at 182 while currently trading at 194. I was recommending a short position getting stopped out earlier in the week as now I'm currently sitting on the sidelines. Natural gas prices are trading at a 4 week high. However, the chart structure is poor meaning that the 10 day low it's too far away to meet my criteria to enter into a new trade so keep a close eye on this market as we could get involved to the upside soon. The fundamentals remain bearish. However, that has already been reflected in the price as supplies are huge at the present time, but the bearish short term trend has ended in my opinion. The energy sector has caught fire over the last several weeks as crude oil is now trading at 42 a barrel which has also supported gas prices in the short term, but look at other markets that are beginning to trend with higher potential.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,259 an ounce while currently trading at 1,254 down slightly for the trading week in a very highly volatile trading manner as prices reacted sharply to the upside off of the Federal Reserve statement of not raising interest rates sending prices up over $40 in Thursday's trade. At the current time, I'm sitting on the sidelines in this market as I have missed the upside. However, I am not bullish gold at this price level as I think prices are topping out. However I'm not recommending a short position, but if you believe my opinion, I would sell a mini contract while placing the stop loss above the most recent high of 1,287 risking $30 or $1,000 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. Negative interest rates throughout the world have spooked investors back into the gold market as commodities, in general, have rallied as a whole. However, I remain bullish the stock market which continues to move higher as I think money flows will come out of the precious metals here in the short term. Remember when trading commodities it’s all based on risk as the risk/reward on the short side I think is in your favor, but it does not meet my criteria for an official entry into a new trade which has to be a 4 week low, but decide for yourself what's best for your trading account.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Coffee futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 125.80 a pound while currently trading at 134.50 trading higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session up around 900 points for the trading week hitting a 5 month high. I've been recommending a bullish position from around the 121.50 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss below the 10 day low which currently stands at 119 as the chart structure is terrible at the present time due to the fact that coffee prices have exploded to the upside over the last week. The commodity markets, in general, have rallied substantially due to the fact that the U.S dollar has hit a 6 month low and it certainly looks to me that the bear markets are over with in the short term. However, if you have missed this trade the risk/reward is not your favor at the current time as you missed the boat so you must look at other markets that are beginning to trend. The next major level of resistance is the October high around 142 as I think prices could test that level next week as coffee prices are still cheap in my opinion as demand currently is strong. At the current time, I'm recommending a bullish position in cocoa and coffee as the soft commodity markets have certainly caught fire recently including the sugar market so start looking at the commodities to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.13 a pound while currently trading at 15.86 continuing its remarkable bullish run to the upside hitting a 14 month high as I'm sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure has not met my criteria towards entering into the trade. However, I'm certainly not recommending any type of short position as it looks to me that prices are headed even higher. Sugar futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the upside as the commodity markets have caught fire as who knows how high sugar prices can actually go as production cuts throughout major growing regions throughout the world are causing concerns about carryover levels pushing prices up tremendously over the last 3 weeks. Remember when you trade commodities the trend is your friend and trading with the path of least resistance is the most successful way to trade in my opinion over the course of time so do not sell sugar at this point, but if you have missed this trade sit on the sidelines and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the horse has left the barn in this market in the short term.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, U.S. Dollar, Gold, Silver, Sugar

It's Saturday and that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. 

Crude oil futures in the April contract settled last Friday at 31.91 a barrel while currently trading at 32.00 basically unchanged for the trading week with a possible double bottom being created around $29 the level occurring. Crude oil prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as the long term trend is also to the downside despite the fact that several countries decided to freeze production this week, but that still leaves production at record levels as investors found that as another negative situation.

The volatility in crude oil is extremely high at the current time as I’m looking to possibly enter into a short position on any type of rally as the chart structure has improved tremendously, therefore, lowering monetary risk, but at this point I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for an opportunity which could develop any day. The commodity markets in general still look weak as I still have many short positions in several different commodity sectors including natural gas which is hitting another contract low today as supplies are just too high across the board despite the fact that the U.S dollar may have topped out.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Natural gas prices in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.03 while currently trading at 1.89 trading lower 7 out of the last 8 trading sessions as the original recommendation was a short position in the March contract as we rolled over and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 2.23 as the chart structure is very poor at the present time.

Natural gas prices continue to move lower on a weekly basis as this trade has gone straight down from the original recommendation so continue to place the proper stop loss as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis, as I still see lower prices ahead possibly retesting 1.75 and if that is broken I think we can test 1.50 as extremely warm weather in the Midwestern part of the United States continues to plague this commodity.

The fundamentals in natural gas are extremely bearish with all time high inventories as we were producing too many products especially in the energy sector including natural gas so continue to play this to the downside as I'm looking at adding more contracts once some type of price kickback develops, as I still see no reason to own natural gas especially as we enter the month of March, as springtime is upon us.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

The U.S dollar in the March contract settled last Friday at 95.98 while currently trading at 96.92 up around 100 points for the trading week as I’m currently recommending a short position from around the 96.90 level while placing my stop loss above the 10 day high at 97.50 risking around 60 points or $600 per contract plus slippage and commission.

The dollar is trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as prices are near a 4 month low due to the fact that the interest rates in the United States have been dropping dramatically, as lower rates mean a lower U.S dollar generally. Volatility in the dollar certainly has increased because of the stock market which is on a roller coaster ride daily sending shockwaves into currency markets.

The next major level of support is around the 95.00 level and if that is broken I think we can retest the 93 level in the coming weeks as it certainly looks to me that interest rates are even going lower as worldwide rates have turned negative in certain countries which is an amazing situation in my opinion as the risk/reward is in your favor at the present time as I am still recommending this trade even if you did not take the original advice.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,239 an ounce while currently trading at 1,231 down about $8 for the trading week trading in a highly volatile manner. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the upside as prices have skyrocketed from the contract low around 1,050 and now have rallied over $200 in a matter of weeks as panic around the world is sending gold prices sharply higher.

At the current time, I am sitting on the sidelines as the risk is too much for me to tolerate as the only recommendation in the precious metals currently is the silver market as the gold chart structure is terrible. The S&P 500 has been extremely volatile in the year 2016 and that has supported gold prices however the S&P has rallied significantly over the last week, but it has not been a negative influence on gold as there is demand for gold at the current time and I’m certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as that would be counter trend and poor trading in my opinion so avoid this market at the present time.

Trading is all about risk as I see other opportunities in the commodity markets where the risk/reward is in your favor coupled with outstanding chart structure as gold does not meet any of my criteria to enter into a trade as sometimes you miss trades and that’s exactly what has occurred in this situation.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.79 an ounce while currently trading at 15.47 down about $.30 in a highly volatile trading week with large swings on a daily basis as I have been recommending a bullish position from around 14.80 and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss below the 10 day low which now stands at 14.90 a chart structure has improved tremendously over the last several days.

The next major level of resistance in silver is around the $16 level as we will have to roll out of the March contract into the May contract early next week due to expiration as I will give the new stop loss in that blog as well. Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the upside as money flows continue to go back into the precious metals for the first time in several years as the precious metals have fallen tremendously from their highs just hit in the year 2011.

In my opinion, the U.S dollar has topped out which is bullish the precious metals so stay long this market while placing the proper stop loss as volatility has certainly come back into this market which is generally a bullish indicator.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 13.12 while currently trading at 12.64 a pound hitting a fresh 5 month low as I’ve been recommending a short position originally in the March contract as we rolled over into the May contract and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 13.50 as the chart structure is poor.

Sugar prices are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive day as I still think there’s a probability that prices will fill the gap at 11.80 which is still another 85 points away as prices are still trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis so stay short in my opinion while placing the proper stop loss.

Sugar prices experienced a rounding top which I’ve talked about in many previous blogs over the last several weeks peeking out around 15.50 as being nimble is a major key to success in my opinion as waiting for the trade to develop is definitely beneficial in the long run so stay short as I’m looking to add more contracts once the chart structure and the risk/reward meet my criteria as lower prices are ahead in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, U.S. Dollar, Coffee, Sugar

Today it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the last weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the March contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a contract and multi year low in Thursday’s trade before rallying this Friday currently trading at 28.10 a barrel up nearly $2 on massive short covering ending the week. Crude oil futures traded as low as 26.05 in Thursday’s trade only to rally, but this market certainly remains weak, but at the current time on sitting on the sidelines as the risk does not meet my criteria as the chart structure is very poor presently. As a trader you must think about probabilities of success and at the current time I’m only focused on the soft commodities as they have very tight chart structure with solid trends to the downside as crude oil remains choppy down these levels as the easy money to the downside has already been made in my opinion. The problem with crude oil is the fact that we have huge worldwide supplies as there is a possibility that the United States might be entering a recession due to the fact that the world has slowed down tremendously as global growth is a thing of the past in the short term.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Natural gas futures in the March contract continue to head lower despite the fact of very cold temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States currently trading at 1.98 as I’ve been recommending a short position from around the 2.14 level and if you took that trade continue place your stop loss at the 10 day high which now stands at 2.17 as the chart structure is outstanding at the present time. Natural gas prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside as the long term now trend line is also intact so I remain short as I think there’s a possibility that we can retest the December 18th contract low around 191 as winter is almost behind us, therefore, demand could weaken even more. If you did not take the original trade wait for some type of price rally before entering, therefore, lowering risk as the 10 day high will not be lowered for another 9 days, so you’re going to have to be patient with the risk tolerance at this point. Natural gas prices are trending stronger on a weekly basis in my opinion as who knows how low prices could actually go.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

Gold prices experienced a wild trading week settling last Friday in New York at 1,157 an ounce while currently trading at 1,233 up around $75 for the trading week hitting a 1 year high as panic has struck the financial markets sending huge money flows into the interest rate market and precious metals. At the current time, I’m sitting on the sidelines in gold as the chart structure is terrible as the risk is huge at this point, but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as that would be counter trend so avoid this market at the present time. The S&P 500 has certainly propped up gold prices here in the short-term as gold prices are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside as my only recommendation in the precious metals is silver. Gold is in overbought territory in my opinion as volatility is huge at the current time as we had over a $50 rally in Thursday’s trade as I think volatility will continue to remain high as there is so much uncertainty worldwide at the present time. The U.S dollar has also entered into a bearish trend topping out around the 100 level which is a fundamental bullish indicator towards gold prices.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

The U.S dollar in the March contract settled last Friday at 97.05 while currently trading at 96.12 continuing its bearish momentum as I missed this trade to the downside as I’m currently on sitting on the sidelines remaining bearish, but the chart structure and the risk/reward did not meet my criteria to enter into a short position. The dollar is trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as prices are right at a 4 month low due to the fact that the interest rates in the United States have been dropping dramatically, as lower rates mean a lower U.S dollar generally. Volatility in the dollar certainly has increased because of the stock market which is on a roller coaster ride daily sending shockwaves into currency markets as I’m looking to enter into a short position once the risk/reward is in my favor which could happen sometime next week so keep a close eye on this market as we could be entering into a new trade soon. The next major level of support is around 95.00 level and if that is broken, I think we can retest the 93 level in the coming weeks as it certainly looks to me that interest rates are even going lower as worldwide rates have turned negative in certain countries which is an amazing situation in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the March contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as this market remains extremely choppy and has been over the last 6 months as I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to develop. Coffee settled last Friday in New York at 123.20 a pound while currently trading at 115.40 down about 800 points for the trading week as the commodity markets and especially the soft commodities remain weak in my opinion. However, a breakout has not occurred at the present time. Recently there has been very little fresh fundamental news to dictate short term price action as this is basically a technical trade, but keep an eye on this market as a breakout will occur in my opinion, so you are going to have to be patient as I do like trading the coffee market, but have not been involved for many months. As a trader you must be diversified for example sometimes the grain market or any other market might go sideways for a long period of time, so it’s tough to go to make money, however that’s why you must be diversified and look at all markets, as something is always developing, therefore, giving you a better chance of success in my opinion so keep a close eye on this market as I’m very hopeful one day we will be involved.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 13.14 a pound while currently trading at 13.12 basically unchanged for the trading week as I have been recommending a short position for several weeks and if you took the original trade we were short the March contract and now we have rolled over into the May contract while now placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands around 13.50 as chart structure is outstanding at the present time. Sugar prices are right near a 4 month low as one of my main reasons for selling this market was the fact of a rounding top on the daily chart taking about 3 months to occur, but as a trader, you must have patience as this paid off here in the short-term. The chart structure at the current time is outstanding as the 10 day low will not be lowered for another 7 days, so you’re going to have to be patient with the risk situation, as the next major level of support is around 12.75 and if that is broken I think we could test the contract low around 11.50 so remain short in my opinion as I still see no reason to own many of the commodities as currently I’m short cocoa, cotton, and, of course, the sugar market.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellant

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Mike Seerys Weekly Natural Gas Futures Recap

Our trading partner Michael Seery is back with his weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Natural gas futures in the June contract settled last Friday at 2.68 while currently trading at 2.56 down around 12 points for the trading week as I have been recommending a short position in the last several weeks as this trade has basically gone sideways to slightly lower and if you took the original recommendation place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2.73 risking around 17 points or $425 per mini contract plus slippage and commission and if you are trading the March contract the risk would be $1,700 plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time.

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Many of the commodity markets were lower this afternoon, however average temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States are dragging natural gas prices lower with the next major resistance around 2.50 so continue to play this to the downside and take advantage of any rallies as the chart structure is outstanding allowing you to place a very tight stop therefore lowering monetary risk as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as prices closed at the weekly low.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil Market Recap for Week Ending Friday December 19th

Crude oil futures in the February contract are up $3 this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 57.40 after settling last Friday around 58.08 a barrel finishing down nearly $1 for the trading week and traded as low as 53.94 before slightly rallying as oversupply and lack of demand continue to push oil prices to 5 year lows.

If you’re still short this market I would continue to place my stop above the 10 day high which in Monday’s trade will be 64.35 risking around 700 points or $7,000 per contract plus slippage and commission, however the chart structure will improve on a daily basis as the 10 day high will be lowered significantly in the next several days.

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This has been one of the best trends in recent memory as prices have basically collapsed in recent weeks ever since OPEC announced that they will not cut production on Thanksgiving Day which sent prices sharply lower as there is also huge supplies here in the U.S. so who knows how low prices can go as I still highly recommended not to be buying this market so if you are currently not short I would sit on the sidelines and look for a market with better chart structure and less risk.

Crude oil futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as consumers around the country are certainly benefiting from lower oil prices at the pump which is also good for the stock market in my opinion as volatility in oil is as high as I’ve ever seen it so be careful as volatility is here to stay.
Trend: Lower
Chart structure: Improving

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Week Ending Crude Oil, Gold and Coffee Markets Summary for Friday November 21st

Our trading partner Mike Seery brings us his weekly call on crude oil, gold and coffee. Could crude oil really be headed lower? If king dollar gets it's way it just might be headed much lower. Here's what Mike has to say about this and other futures commodity trades.

Crude oil futures are up 30 cents in the January contract trading higher for the 2nd consecutive trading session as a short term bottom may have been placed as China cut their interest rate today sending crude oil sharply higher in early trade trading as high as 77.82 a barrel before retracing while currently trading at 76.22 if you are still short this market I would place my stop above the 10 day high which in Monday’s trade will come down to 77.92 risking around 170 points or $1,700 per contract. The U.S dollar was sharply higher and that’s generally very bearish the commodity markets, however with China cutting their interest rate that combated the negativity coming out of the Euro currency causing short covering across the board as many of the commodities including energies, metals, and the grain sector were all higher today but continue to place your stop loss at that level and see what Monday’s trade brings. The fundamentals in oil still remain very bearish as Saudi Arabia has not cut production & the United States continues its torrid pace of production flooding the world market so even if you are stopped out on this trade sit on the sidelines and wait for another trend to develop as I’m not totally convinced that lower prices aren’t ahead in 2015. Crude oil futures are still trading slightly below their 20 but still far below their 100 day moving average telling you the trend is still to the downside and if the U.S dollar continues to move higher that eventually will put pressure on prices once again in my opinion but on a day to day basis anything can occur.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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As I talked about in yesterday’s blog I am telling investors to remain neutral as I do believe gold prices will remain choppy to lower for the rest of 2014 as prices rallied $9 to trade around $1,200 per ounce as extreme volatility has entered this market and I think today’s price action was very impressive due to the fact that the U.S dollar was up over 50 points which is generally very bearish precious metals, however China cut their interest rate pushing many commodities prices higher. Gold futures are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average moving higher despite the fact that the ECB looks like they’re going to utilize more stimulus which is remarkable in my opinion as I do think if the U.S dollar continues to move higher eventually that will be very bearish gold prices so sit on the sidelines as you do not want to trade a choppy market. This market is extremely volatile with big up price swings and down swings so avoid and move on to a trendy market like the S&P 500. Volatility in gold is amazing lately with many days of a $30 – $50 trading range which is incredible going into the holiday season, however if you remember last year gold’s low was near December 31st and we opened up the next day around $20 higher and I think the same thing will happen because of the fact that stock sales which are losers are sold to offset winning trades come the month of December so I still look for another leg down but still would sit on the sidelines at the current time. TREND: NEUTRAL
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Coffee futures in the March contract sold off around 600 for the trading week currently trading at 190.70 in New York with high volatility in the last week with several sharply higher and lower trading sessions as I am advising investors to stay away from this market as the trend is extremely choppy and difficult to trade successfully in my opinion. Coffee prices are trading right at their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is neutral as this volatility will remain for months to come as weather in Brazil is very fickle on a week to week basis as drought concerns are still in the back of traders’ minds as the weather currently is positive for production. The chart structure in coffee presently is very poor as I like to trade markets with tight chart structure which allows you to place tighter stop losses lowering monetary risk in my opinion. TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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How Low Can Crude Oil Go?

Our trading partner Mike Seery is laying out his bearish view on crude oil. How low can it go?

Crude oil futures in the November contract are down $1.50 a barrel currently trading at 89.53 right near two year lows with extreme choppiness over the last several weeks with many rallies and sell offs as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines but now the trend clearly is to the downside, however the chart structure is terrible at the current time so I am not taking a short at this time, however if you are interested in selling this market I would sell a futures contract at today’s price of 89.53 while placing my stop above $95 risking around $5,500 per contract.

The chart structure is very poor as volatility is extremely high but I am certainly not recommending anybody to buy this market as I do think prices are headed lower and if the chart structure improves in the next couple of days I will take a shot at the downside as we are awash in supplies worldwide plus the fact that the U.S dollar hit 2 year highs today as I see oil prices possibly heading down to the $80 level here in the next couple of months due to the fact of low demand and the fact that many of the commodity markets continue bearish trends as deflation is a problem not inflation.

The fact that prices are not rallying with havoc over in the mid East as oil used to rally sharply on problems in the Middle East but now the U.S is an exporter of oil so these ISIS events are not as important as they used to be so continue to sell any type of rally while placing your stop loss properly risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: TERRIBLE

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Commodities Market Recap and this Weeks Stops and Trading Numbers

Today our trading partner Michael Seery gives our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.....

Crude oil futures in the June contract finished up around $.35 this Friday afternoon in New York as prices were down about $2.00 for the trading week right near 4 week lows and I am neutral in this market currently and waiting for a better trend to develop as supplies are at 85 year highs here in the United States which is a bearish factor however you also have problems in the Ukrainian region which is a bullish indicator so this market could remain choppy so wait for better chart structure to develop. Crude oil futures are trading below their 20 day moving average but above their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed so look for a better trending market to get involved with.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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Natural gas futures in the June contract finished lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session finishing higher by 3 points for the trading week to close around 4.69 as I’m recommending a long position in this contract placing my stop loss below the 10 day low which stands at 4.50 risking around 20 points or $500 per contract as the trend is still higher in my opinion as the risk reward situation is highly in your favor as we enter the demand season of summer.

Natural gas prices have been in a bull market for quite some time and if you read some of my previous blogs several months back when prices were in the low $3 I was recommending if you have deep pockets and a longer term horizon to buy natural gas as prices were extremely cheap due to the fact of large supplies, however we had an extremely cold winter which reduced supplies dramatically and I do think natural gas prices will be sharply higher from today’s level in the next year as prices have bottomed out in my opinion.

As a trader I focus on today and tomorrow only so when I can buy a natural gas contract and risk 1,500 I will take that trade even if I don’t believe the trade. Natural gas prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is higher after we consolidated in the month March after the big run-up in early winter as prices seem to be resuming back up to the upside so play this market to the upside using my stop loss and proper risk management.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING

Fed Proof Your Portfolio

Gold prices had a volatile trading week basically finishing unchanged to settle around 1,298 in the June contract after having a tremendous reversal selling off down to 1,272 when the monthly unemployment number was released adding 280,000 jobs which is bullish the economy and bearish gold but then turned on a dime with the Ukrainian problems escalating sending gold finishing up $14 this Friday right near session highs as prices have been consolidating in recent weeks. I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in the gold market for quite some time as this market remains choppy and it might be bottoming at the current price levels as gold rallied $200 to start the year but now has given back over $100 so were at about the 50% retracement so if your bullish gold I would buy a futures contract at today’s price while placing my stop at the 10 day low which is also the 10 week low of 1,268 an ounce risking around $3,000 per contract. I’ve lived through many of these political escalations including one last August with Syria and they always seem to fizzle away so we will see if today’s rally will do the same but sit on the sidelines and see what develops. The one thing gold does have going for it is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average which is telling you that the trend might be turning higher as prices could be bottoming out.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Why Are So Many Boomers Working Longer?

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as volatility has come back into this market in the last week as prices reversed sharply off of yesterday’s contract lows of 18.66 to go out this Friday afternoon at 19.47 an ounce and if you been reading any of my previous blogs for months I’ve been talking about the possibility of silver bottoming at the $19 level and if you have deep pockets and you’re a longer-term investor I’m recommending that you buy silver as I think prices are cheap. I am bullish silver not because of the Ukrainian problems but because of the fact that the commodity markets are in a bullish trend and silver will catch up eventually as this is a highly inflationary commodity with a lot of demand as silver is used in smart phones unlike gold which really has no purpose except for a flight to quality and jewelry. Prices reversed today because of the Ukrainian situation seems to be escalating and it sent prices sharply higher but the true breakout in this market is at 20.40 that’s where I really would be recommending to get long and if you are in a futures contract already I would be adding to my position if prices break that level as a spike bottom may have occurred in yesterday’s price action.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Here's our Critical Line in the Sand for Silver

Coffee futures settled last Friday at 207 while going out this afternoon in New York at 203 continuing its high volatility as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as the chart structure is starting to improve with the 10 day low currently standing at 194 which is about 1000 points away or $3,500 risk. As I’ve talked about in previous blogs coffee is a very large contract and should not be traded with a small trading account due to its high volatility as prices remain strong in my opinion so I’m sticking with my previous recommendation and just keep my stop at the 2 week low as will start to see some estimates on the Brazilian crop which should give us some short term price direction. Prices have basically stalled out in the low 200s in recent weeks as prices are still consolidating the giant move up we had earlier in the year as coffee prices are about 80% in the year 2014 as the drought in Brazil really took its toll so I remain bullish.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING


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The Odds Are In Your Favor To Trade Gold This Quarter

Using MarketClub's weekly and daily Trade Triangles, I have found that over the last 6 1/2 years, the second quarter of the year has shown the most consistent profits in gold. These past results showed a quarterly gain on average of $7,104.83 on one futures contract.

Gold (XAUUSDO) enjoyed a nice move up earlier in the year, reaching a high of $1393.35 and has pulled back to an important Fibonacci support area. I want to watch this market very carefully and wait for the weekly Trade Triangle to turn green to get bullish on gold. That's not to say I am not longer term bullish, it only means that my timing will kick in when the weekly Trade Triangle turns into a green Trade Triangle.

Besides the Fibonacci support area, the RSI indicator is also at a very low level, similar to that of December 2013.

Trading Results

Q2 of 2008            $965.00
Q2 of 2009            $870.00
Q2 of 2010         $7,057.00
Q2 of 2011         $6,700.00
Q2 of 2012         $4,223.00
Q2 of 2013       $31,260.00
TOTAL             $42,629.00
AVE GAIN         $7,104.83

The results are based on signals using MarketClub's real time spot gold prices and margin of $8,333. This particular trading strategy and results are based on trading one futures contract, both from the long and short side. An ETF could be substituted, but I suspect the results would be quite different.

Trading Rules

How to use MarketClub's Trade Triangles to trade gold:

Use the weekly Trade Triangle to determine the major trend and initial positions. Use the daily Trade Triangles for timing purposes.

Gold entry and exit signals are generated from the spot Gold (XAUUSDO) chart.

Let me give you an example: if the last weekly Trade Triangle is GREEN, this indicates that the major trend is up for that market. You would use the initial GREEN weekly Trade Triangle as an entry point. You would then use the next RED daily Trade Triangle as an exit point. You would only reenter a long position if and when a GREEN daily Trade Triangle kicked in.

You would then use the next RED daily Trade Triangle as an exit point, provided that the GREEN weekly Trade Triangle is still in place and the trend is positive for that market. The reverse is true when you have a RED weekly Trade Triangle. You would use the initial RED weekly Trade Triangle as an entry point for a short position. You would then use the next GREEN daily Trade Triangle as an exit point.

Only Trade With Risk Capital

Even if the odds are in your favor, don't forget that there are no guarantees in trading and only funds that you can afford to lose should be used to trade with.

See you in the markets!
Adam Hewison

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Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery - SP 500, Gold, Coffee, Sugar

We’ve asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

SP 500 Futures
The S&P 500 in the March contract hit another all time record high trading higher by 2 points at 1855 rallying about 16 points in the last 2 trading days as investors are extremely bullish this market due to the fact of low interest rates and a weakening U.S dollar pushing commodity prices higher which also helped push up stock prices. The S&P 500 is trading above its 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside as this bull market continues in my opinion as Friday’s remain the most bullish day of the week in equities as investors continue to think that higher prices are ahead with the next major target at 1900 in the next possible couple of months as mergers and acquisitions are taking place with solid earnings across the board and nowhere else to go due to the fact of extremely low interest rates so look to continue to buy the S&P 500 in my opinion especially on dips.

Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

Gold Futures
Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average basically settling unchanged for the trading week going out this Friday afternoon in New York down about $8 at 1,323 after prices hit 1,345 in Wednesday’s trade as the trend still continues to the upside. I think this is just a possible pause as prices have had a heckuva rally in the last 2 months and I have been recommending a long position in gold for quite some time while placing my stop below the 10 day low which currently stands around 1,315 which is only $8 away so that stop is very tight with a high probability of getting clipped at that price on Monday, however continue to focus on gold and silver to the upside and if you’re lucky enough to get some panic selling I would still be looking at buying as 2013 created the low in gold prices in my opinion.

Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

Coffee Futures
This is an actual email that I received from a major coffee producer in Brazil that was sent to me late Thursday night..... “I have been following your comments and suggestions on barchart´s page and have found quite accurate. I live in Machado, state of Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica producing area in Brazil and the lack of rain mixed with unusual hot temperatures are quite scary. However, the worse is yet to come. Even if it the amount of rain gets back to normality by March and April, coffee trees are no longer capable to produce enough energy for the flowering season that must happen between October and November. Having said that, 2015´s crop could be a total disaster if on top of that frost decides to show up by late May".

Coffee could face some corrections but price has no other place to go but up as Brazil alone is consuming around 25 million bags per year. If we´re down to 50 million bags this year ( I like to be optimistic) that will be quite interesting to watch. I continue to recommend a long position either with a futures contract or some type of bull call option spread for the month of July as 2.00 a pound is the next level of resistance as prices closed right as new contract highs at 180.30 a pound in the May contract.

Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

Sugar Futures
Sugar futures finished lower this Friday afternoon closing around 17.66 a pound in the May contract but rallied about 65 points for the week all due to the drought worsening in central Brazil which is cutting crop estimates which is pushing prices right near 3 ½ month highs. Sugar futures have rallied from 15.00 a pound in late January to all the way above 18.00 in yesterday’s trade as this market remains bullish and I have been recommending a long position when the breakout occurred at 16.58 I would place my stop loss at the 10 day low of 16.00 if you are long. Sugar futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average; however the chart structure is very poor as volatility has entered in the last couple of weeks having wild trading sessions of 80 points or more so make sure you have a proper money management technique in place limiting your risk in case you are wrong but I do believe prices are headed higher.

Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

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Weekly Coffee Futures Recap for Friday February 21st

It's time to check in with our trading partner Mike Seery for his take on where coffee ended the week.


Coffee futures in the May contract rallied 3000 points this week closing right near contract highs at 170 a pound all due to the fact of a major drought in central Brazil which is the largest grower of coffee in the world sending prices up about 60% in the year 2014 and I’m still recommending if your long this market to continue to stay long as I think 2.00 is coming relatively soon and could happen on Monday especially if no rain happens over the weekend. Volatility is very high in this market currently so if that scares you look at the July bull call option spreads limiting your risk to what the premium costs allowing you to live through these daily fluctuations as this volatility should continue for months to come.

Coffee futures are trading far above their 20 & 100 day moving average with awful chart structure currently, however if you are long a futures contract I would place my stop below the 10 day low which is around 135 a pound which is quite a distance away, however this stop will be raised on a daily basis and will become relatively tight in the next 5 days. When you trade the commodity markets you want to let your winners run and get out of your losers relatively quickly and this is the perfect example of one market like coffee that can make your entire year

Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Awful

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Gold Mini Contract Trade Entry Point with Stop

Gold futures in the April contract are trading above their 20 day but below their 100 day moving average which is pretty close at 1,275 going out this Friday afternoon in New York at 1,267 up about $10 after closing last Friday at 1,240 having one of its best trading weeks in quite some time. The next major resistance in gold is at 1,280 and if that level is broken we believe a bull market is underway as the gold market looks like it's finally bottomed entering new 2 month highs as the trend line has now been broken as prices are starting to climb higher.

We have not been particularly bullish gold for quite some time but things have changed and this is the most bullish we have been as we love the chart pattern on the daily chart and think prices have bottomed so if you're looking to take a shot to the upside my suggestion would be to buy a mini contract at today's price placing a stop below the contract low of 1,180 risking around $2,600 as last Friday's monthly unemployment number was very disappointing once again sending investors into treasury bonds and gold and we do believe gold prices are headed higher.

Last year gold was down 32% & was the 1st down year in 12 years and we do think prices may have gotten too low as volatility has now entered the stock market which is pushing money back in the gold sector and we do think prices will hit 1,300 the next couple of weeks as we are in the start of a bull market once again.

Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Excellent

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TV Pundits are Talking Coffee...Is that the Top? JO JVA

One of the oldest trading cliches in the book. "When the TV pundits are talking about it, and the barbers and taxi cab drivers are talking about it...the top is in". But not in coffee this year. We think we are just getting started. And when we talk coffee we always check in with our favorite coffee trader Mike Seery. Here's what Mike is saying....

Coffee futures have been the big story in recent weeks due to the fact of a huge rally in the last 2 weeks caused by hot & dry conditions in central Brazil which is causing prices to move much higher as we have not seen a drought since 1989 and there are no rains forecast in the next 7 days which could push prices up even higher.

Coffee is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average settling at 137.85 a pound in the May contract up about 1000 points this week with extreme volatility as Brazil's crop is estimated between 54 – 55 million bags and that could be lowered if this drought continues in the month of February and as I talked about in previous blogs the volatility is extremely high.

So I would look at bull call option spreads for the month of July limiting your risk to what the premium costs also allowing you to stay in the market without getting stopped out because there are days like Thursday when prices were down 700 points which is around $3,000 a futures contract as the volatility is here to stay and I do think higher prices are coming.

The 50% retracement from the recent high to the low is right around 130 so if you’re looking to get into a futures contract I would look to buy that level placing my stop at the 10 day low which currently is at 115 risking around $5,500 per contract.

Coffee is a very large contract and if you're right it will pay you off tremendously as I've gone through similar events in this market especially in 1994 when prices went from $.75 to 2.70 in a matter of months due to a frost and if this drought does continue expect coffee possibly getting up to the $2 a pound level as prices could really explode just like what happened in the grain market in 2012.

Current coffee trend: HIGHER
Current chart structure: TERRIBLE

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Using 3X ETF's....Maybe this is now Doable

For years we have resisted using the 3X ETF's for our near term and day trading. These can potentially cut your head off over night. The main reason we have not been willing to use these tickers is that our traditional research including the resistance, support and pivot numbers just don't work.

But our friend and trading partner Chris Vermeulen is trying to convince us that he has it figured out. He has been telling us this for years but now he has created a program that....well, in all honesty looks like he was right.

Check out Chris new AlgoTrades Program

Here is his most recent trade using the ES Mini futures contract.....

On Jan 13th 2014 our algorithmic trading system took a long position in the SP500 futures trading contact. In less than 24 hours our algorithm system was able to identify resistance in the market the following session. This invisible overbought market condition which only our algorithmic trading system identified automatically sold 1/3rd of our long position for a quick $1100 profit and adjusted the protective stop to breakeven on the balance of the position.

Quick note: While this trade was executed on the ES mini futures contract using our futures trading system, we do have a 3x automated trading system for ETFs. We know the most of our followers and the general public prefer ETF trading because they understand them more and have less risk. So we built this 3x automated trading system using the 3 times leveraged exchange traded funds.

As of today (Jan 15th) we are sitting with a risk free trade, $1100 in realized gains, and another $2400 in gains on the remainder of our position. This type of trade setup has happened twice in the past 10 days. The first trade took $500 in profit and was stopped out the next day and now this trade.

Click here to read Chris' entire article and check out his chart work on this trade.



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Are the Coffee Bulls Getting the Green Light? JO JVA

Today we are going to take a look at the technical picture for the March Coffee contract NYBOT:KC.H14.E

We'll be analyzing the current coffee chart using the MarketClub Trade Triangle technology. Full disclosure, we are long coffee using the ETF JO.

With futures we use the weekly MarketClub Trade Triangles to tell us the trend and the daily MarketClub Trade Triangles for timing the entry and exits to the trade.

Coffee made a base, has made a breakout of the base to the upside and a test of the base, which means a bottom is probably in for Coffee.

When ever the weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle is green, then you can use daily green Trade Triangles as entry signals to go long in the market.

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Weekly Futures Market Recap - Natural Gas, Gold and Coffee

For this weeks weekly futures recap we've asked our trading partner Mike Seery to weigh in on three of our favorite markets. Natural gas, gold and coffee......

Natural gas futures were up another 24 points this week in the January contract trading at 4.35 still above its 20 & 100 day moving average now hitting a 6 month high continuing its bullish momentum with extreme cold weather throughout much of the country stirring up demand as temperatures are far above average causing natural gas prices to continue its bullish run.

Many of the other commodities are starting to move higher with natural gas and in my opinion a triple bottom has occurred around 3.50 and as I’ve written in many previous blogs I am just outright bullish the natural gas sector due to the fact that I do believe the United States government is going to mandate natural gas usage here in the next 3 to 5 years which could double or triple prices just on demand without factoring any weather premium and in my opinion I’m advising all investors who have a long term horizon to be buying natural gas in the December contract of 2015 and holding because prices could skyrocket from these ridiculously low levels.

Remember natural gas prices traded as high as 13 – 14 just in the year 2008 that’s how far we’ve come and with the green energy policies and the trend getting away from fossil fuels continuing I believe natural gas demand will soar in the next decade as traders will shake their heads wondering why they were not in natural gas at 4.00.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Gold futures had a wild trading week with a $30 up day and $30 down day finishing up about $5 for the trading week in the February contract going out this Friday in New York at 1,235 an ounce finishing up $11 this Friday afternoon as the trend still remains bearish in my opinion & I still believe that there’s a high probability that prices will retest the summer lows of 1,180 here in the next couple of weeks.

Next week will be very interesting to see if the Fed does taper bond purchases and how these markets will react so expect extreme volatility in the precious metals especially if tapering is announced. I would definitely expect prices to drop rather significantly quickly but the opposite could happen as well as if there is no tapering you could get a big knee jerk reaction to the upside so I’m advising just to sit on the sidelines and see what the statement says and go from there because it’s like flipping a coin at this time but the trend is to the downside so at least in the short term prices still look vulnerable.

Gold is still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average we really have gone nowhere in the last month but we had extreme volatility as there is major support down at those levels. Gold is down about 35% from its all-time high of about 1,900 just a couple years ago and eventually there will be a bottom in this market I just don’t think quite yet.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: OK

Coffee futures have broken out to a 7 week high trading nearly up 900 points this week currently at 115.20 in the March contract as a possible bottom has finally been formed after hovering around 5 year lows as the bulls have come back in this market with the next major resistance at 120. If you think coffee prices have bottomed my recommendation would be to buy a futures contract place a stop below the contract low of about 104 risking around $4,000 per contract as coffee is one of the largest commodities contracts with as every 100 points equaling $375 profit or loss.

The fundamentals have not changed in coffee with large world supplies and low demand at this time but eventually prices come to a bottom but I’m not 100% convinced that the sell off is over but I certainly would not be short this market as the short term trend is higher and I always try to trade with the short term trend. Coffee futures are trading above their 20 day moving average but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at 119 and I suspect that there will be some buy stops up at that level so prices could still have more room to run to the upside in the next several days.currently.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


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Weekly Futures Market Recap - SP 500, Bonds, Gold, Coffee

It's the weekend and that means it's time to check in with Michael Seery of INO.com for his weekly recap of the Futures market. Seery has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets......


The S&P 500 rose sharply this Friday afternoon after finishing lower for 5 consecutive trading days which is very rare in the month of December as this Friday afternoon prices finished up 19 points at 1803 and remember the fact we have not have a down day on a Friday since early October as Friday generally is a positive up day going into the weekend.

I’ve been recommending a long position in the S&P 500 for quite some time I do believe we will continue to move higher possibly up to the 1850 level here by New Year’s as there’s no other game in town with excellent earnings and the possibility of tapering coming after the monthly unemployment number which showed 203, 000 new jobs with an unemployment rate of 7.0% which was considered very bullish despite the fact that there could be tapering of US bonds soon , but that story is becoming old sending prices sharply higher right near all time highs once again.

The NASDAQ 100 is up 25 points at 3503 despite the fact that Apple Computer was down nearly $8 as investors are still in love with the technology sector especially after a minor setback that it had the last week and I still suggest you be bullish either with options or outright futures positions. The NASDAQ 100 cash index I believe will break 4500 which is the next stop which will take a couple of months in my opinion but prices remain strong.

Both of these markets are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average despite the five day losing streak & that just shows you how far prices have comes to the upside and I do think there’s more good news around the world which should prop up stock prices especially with low interest rates in Europe and the Japanese continuing their QE programs which will prop up the Nikkei so across the world bullish news will continue to push equity prices higher.

Bond Futures

The 5 year note sold off sharply this Friday afternoon hitting a 6 week low before rallying to finish down 3 ticks at 120-08 as the monthly unemployment was construed bullish the stock market and bearish bonds because of the possibility of tapering. I'm recommending a short position in the five year note as the government cannot continue to print forever and one day if you're a long-term investor this will pay off as interest rates will start to rise eventually as the five year note is only yielding 1.50% at the present time. This is an excellent market with low volatility compared to many of the other commodity markets and it has excellent chart structure and I'm recommending outright futures contract to the downside & If you are long term investor I would continue to sell the five year note futures and I would not place a stop because I would hold on continuing to rollover for years to come because the five year note eventually could go back up to 4% or 5% which would be a huge gain if you are short the futures for the entire time and that could take several years but will pay you off in the long run in my opinion. The five year note is now trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average and it looks like a possible head and shoulders top has been formed so take a shot at the downside.

The 10 year note is currently trading at 124-09 in the March contract finishing lower for the 3rd straight trading session and it also looks like its topped out so I'm recommending a short position placing your stop above 125.20 risking around $1,500 per contract as I do think prices will retest at 120 level down the road as the yield on the 10 year stands at 2.89% as people are rotating out of bonds and continue to pour money into the S&P 500 which I think will continue for the rest of the year so sell rallies in the bond market. Trend....mixed. Chart Structure....excellent.

Gold Futures

The monthly unemployment report came out at this morning stating that we added 203, 000 new jobs which was construed very bullish sending the stock market higher and gold lower due to the fact of tapering possibly happening as soon as March as the unemployment rate is now 7.0% as traders see no reasonable to own gold as the economy here in the United States and around the world are improving dramatically sending the S&P right near record highs once again today and selling off gold by $4 at 1,228 currently here on the night session this Friday afternoon in New York. Gold is trading below its 20 & 100 day moving average continuing its bearish trend hitting a 5 month low with major support at 1,210 which was hit twice this week and rebounded but it looks to me that we almost certainly have to retest 1,180 which was last summer’s low. Trend lower....Chart structure....excellant.

Coffee Futures

Coffee in the March contract closed down over 450 points this week at 106.40 reversing earlier gains hitting a 4 week high at 1 point trading up at 112.90 on Wednesday before a major reversal sent it right back down into its recent trading range as many the commodity markets were sharply higher this week but the coffee fundamentals still at this time remain bearish. If your bullish coffee prices as we’ve have had a nice sideways channel for over 4 weeks and that’s what to look for in a bottoming pattern so my recommendation would be to buy a futures contract at today’s price placing a stop below the contract low at 104 risking around $1,100 per contract but I remain neutral on coffee because there really is no trend right now. It would not surprise me if you get a snap back to the upside like we’ve gotten in oil, gold, and silver prices today as massive short covering is taking place and that could happen in coffee as well because of the short interest currently. Trend....neutral. Chart structure excellent.

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Weekly Futures Recap with Mike Seery

We’ve asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been a commodity Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude oil futures for the November contract are flirting with 4 month lows finishing lower by $1.10 at 101.90 this Friday afternoon in New York as global supplies are high while demand remains weak pressuring prices in recent months.

Crude oil is trading below its 20 day and right at its 100 day moving average and I’m still recommending traders to sell the futures contract and place a stop at the 10 day high which stands at 104.38 and I think there is a chance of crude oil dropping quickly possibly down to the $90 price level as the geo political news is bearish with Syria a distant memory.

I love trades that have a great risk/reward scenario and crude oil can pay you off big time if you are right on the trade while the risk at the 10 day high at the time of my recommendation earlier in the week was only $500.

The coffee market which I’ve talked about previously in many blogs continues to move sideways in a nonvolatile trading action up 200 points for the trading week trading at 116.60 a pound up 200 points in the December contract this Friday afternoon, however it is right at its 20 day but still below its 100 day moving average as the Vietnamese harvest is only a couple weeks away which could put harvest pressure on prices again with the possibility of going down to 100 in my opinion.

There is very little interest in coffee at this time and I’ve been trading for over 20 years and I can’t remember such a nonvolatile market as coffee generally is one of the most volatile markets in the world, however with huge supplies globally and excellent weather across the globe this market still looks weak hitting another 4 1/2 year low this week and a very bearish trade on Thursday when prices were up 300 points and then settled lower meaning traders are taking advantage of any higher prices to sell but keep an eye on this market I still think if you’re longer term trader buying coffee if prices reach 100 could pay you off in the long run.

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Platts: ICE Brent futures lose previous quarter's premium to NYMEX WTI, Dubai

After a strong performance at the beginning of the year, the forward Brent complex lost some of its strength to WTI and Dubai crude futures in the second quarter of 2013 on a combination of European demand woes and stronger East and West crudes.

The narrowing of the spread between the ICE Brent futures and NYMEX light sweet contract, known as Brent/WTI spread, was a notable change in the quarter.

Toward the end of June, the ICE Brent front-month futures contract narrowed its premium to front-month NYMEX crude to below $6/barrel, more than halving from the beginning of the quarter. (A trend which of course has continued, with the spread tumbling below $5/b and even $4/b in just the first three days of July.)


Here's a short video in which John Carter shows how he trades oil and how he identifies targets when to take profit.

Weekly Energy Recap with Mike Seery

The energy futures bucked the trend this week despite the fact that the dollar continues to surge higher but is not putting any pressure on energy prices as July crude oil is still trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average finishing up around $.90 this Friday afternoon at 96.40 a barrel climbing higher for the 3rd consecutive day following the S&P 500 to the upside.

I’ve been advising traders to sit on the sideline in this market because there is no chart structure and I guess the trend might be to the upside but at this point I don’t believe there’s a solid trend to sink your teeth in with major resistance at 98 – 100 which could be tested next week. This market is showing incredible strength in my opinion due to the fact that gold is falling out of bed with many other commodities but even with record supplies here in the United States prices still continue to hang near the top and of the trading range.

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Heating oil futures for the June contract are trading above their 20 day moving average but below their 100 day moving average trading right at 4 week highs up around 300 points the trading week looking to breakout to the upside with major resistance at 2.95 as crude oil is propping up all of the products.

Unleaded gasoline for the June contract is trading above its 20 day moving average but still below its 100 day moving average hitting a 5 week high today as I’ve stated many previous blogs I believe a triple bottom may have occurred in unleaded gas prices and I think were headed higher as demand season for gas starts Memorial Day weekend.

The chart structure in heating oil and in unleaded gasoline is much better than it is in crude oil so focus on the products at this time especially unleaded gas to the upside as prices here in Chicago are flirting around 4.75 a gallon because the fact that we have extremely high taxes and a special summer blend so there is a chance that we could see prices head higher at the pump the summer.

Trend: Higher – Chart structure excellant

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