Sunday, December 15, 2013

Weekly Futures Market Recap - Natural Gas, Gold and Coffee

For this weeks weekly futures recap we've asked our trading partner Mike Seery to weigh in on three of our favorite markets. Natural gas, gold and coffee......

Natural gas futures were up another 24 points this week in the January contract trading at 4.35 still above its 20 & 100 day moving average now hitting a 6 month high continuing its bullish momentum with extreme cold weather throughout much of the country stirring up demand as temperatures are far above average causing natural gas prices to continue its bullish run.

Many of the other commodities are starting to move higher with natural gas and in my opinion a triple bottom has occurred around 3.50 and as I’ve written in many previous blogs I am just outright bullish the natural gas sector due to the fact that I do believe the United States government is going to mandate natural gas usage here in the next 3 to 5 years which could double or triple prices just on demand without factoring any weather premium and in my opinion I’m advising all investors who have a long term horizon to be buying natural gas in the December contract of 2015 and holding because prices could skyrocket from these ridiculously low levels.

Remember natural gas prices traded as high as 13 – 14 just in the year 2008 that’s how far we’ve come and with the green energy policies and the trend getting away from fossil fuels continuing I believe natural gas demand will soar in the next decade as traders will shake their heads wondering why they were not in natural gas at 4.00.

Gold futures had a wild trading week with a $30 up day and $30 down day finishing up about $5 for the trading week in the February contract going out this Friday in New York at 1,235 an ounce finishing up $11 this Friday afternoon as the trend still remains bearish in my opinion & I still believe that there’s a high probability that prices will retest the summer lows of 1,180 here in the next couple of weeks.

Next week will be very interesting to see if the Fed does taper bond purchases and how these markets will react so expect extreme volatility in the precious metals especially if tapering is announced. I would definitely expect prices to drop rather significantly quickly but the opposite could happen as well as if there is no tapering you could get a big knee jerk reaction to the upside so I’m advising just to sit on the sidelines and see what the statement says and go from there because it’s like flipping a coin at this time but the trend is to the downside so at least in the short term prices still look vulnerable.

Gold is still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average we really have gone nowhere in the last month but we had extreme volatility as there is major support down at those levels. Gold is down about 35% from its all-time high of about 1,900 just a couple years ago and eventually there will be a bottom in this market I just don’t think quite yet.

Coffee futures have broken out to a 7 week high trading nearly up 900 points this week currently at 115.20 in the March contract as a possible bottom has finally been formed after hovering around 5 year lows as the bulls have come back in this market with the next major resistance at 120. If you think coffee prices have bottomed my recommendation would be to buy a futures contract place a stop below the contract low of about 104 risking around $4,000 per contract as coffee is one of the largest commodities contracts with as every 100 points equaling $375 profit or loss.

The fundamentals have not changed in coffee with large world supplies and low demand at this time but eventually prices come to a bottom but I’m not 100% convinced that the sell off is over but I certainly would not be short this market as the short term trend is higher and I always try to trade with the short term trend. Coffee futures are trading above their 20 day moving average but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at 119 and I suspect that there will be some buy stops up at that level so prices could still have more room to run to the upside in the next several days.currently.

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