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See you in the markets putting this to work,
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President/CEO @ the Crude Oil Trader
Trading Success Doesn’t Have To Be Hard with this Breakthrough Strategy any Trader Can Use
Showing posts with label Adam Hewison. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Adam Hewison. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Thursday, January 22, 2015
Is this ETF Laying the Foundation for a Rally in Crude Oil?
Picking bottoms is not something one should do if you're going to be a successful trader. But looking at market that may be forming a bottom is a good exercise, and one that you should be doing on a regular basis. I had done this before gold reversed to the upside traded over $1300 an ounce. Maybe it's time to look at crude oil and see if it's beginning to set itself up for a move to the upside.
Technically, the Trade Triangles remain negative on crude oil, so there is no reversal showing up with those technical tools. The story is a little bit different with the RSI indicator. This particular indicator is showing that there is a big positive divergence on the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (PACF:XLE), and it is one that spans months.
Today I'm looking at the ETF XLE and the fact that if it closes higher for the week, it will be a positive sign. The previous week saw a very important Japanese candlestick formation call a "Dragon Fly Doji" this can be interpreted as a strong indication of reversal. It all depend's on how XLE closes this Friday.
Should XLE close higher than ($76.56) the market will have created a "Bullish Engulfing Line" confirming that the previous weeks, "Dragon Fly Doji" was indeed a reversal to the upside.
Take a look at both charts, one is a daily graph showing a large positive divergence on the RSI indicator. The other graph is a weekly Candlestick chart highlighting the “Dragon Fly Doji” and the potential for a “Bullish Engulfing Line” to occur this week.
So here is my 3 step strategy for the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (PACF:XLE):
1. I'm going to watch this market closely and have it on my radar.
2. I want to watch the 50 line on the RSI. A close over this line will be another important clue and strong indication that this market is bottoming or has bottomed out.
3. I'm also watching the weekly Trade Triangle on crude oil, should this Trade Triangle turn green, you'll want to BUY XLE, as it closely tracks crude oil.
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Monday, January 12, 2015
Last Week's Volatility Could Be A Harbinger Of Things To Come
There's a war going on right now and I don't mean overseas, I mean right here in the markets. Last week was a perfect example as the intraday swings of the S&P500 clocked in at a staggering 6.5%. Market volatility often is a precursor of things to come, and the irony of all this action was that the market closed with a loss of -0.65% for the week.
The net weekly change for the DOW was -0.53% and there was an even smaller loss of -0.42% for the NASDAQ. All three indices formed an important Japanese candlestick pattern, a weekly doji candle. Why is this important? A doji candlestick often signals indecision in the market. When the doji forms in an uptrend or downtrend, this is normally seen as significant, as it is a signal that the buyers are losing conviction when formed in an uptrend and a signal that sellers are losing conviction if seen in a downtrend.
What To Watch For This Week
A lower weekly close would indicate to me that the buyers are beginning lose control of this aging bull market. Here is the "line in the sand" for each of the indices that I am watching. Once below this line, watch for heavy liquidation to come in across the board.
DOW: 17.262 S&P500: 1,992 NASDAQ: 4.090
Gold Is Now Officially On The Move
You might remember on January 7th, I wrote a post on gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) and the key neckline level. The key neckline in gold was broken to the upside last Friday when gold closed out the week with a very positive 2.9% gain. I now have a confirmed upside target zone of $1,340, which equates to about $132-$134 on the ETF, GLD. To follow all of the entry and exit points for gold, check in daily with the World Cup Portfolio.
How High Can The Dollar Go?
The U.S. Dollar Index (NYBOT:DX) continues to push higher against most currencies with another weekly gain of 0.85% in the Dollar Index. The question on everyone's mind is, how high can the dollar go without a correction? To this observer, it appears that there are technical storm clouds gathering that could spell trouble for the dollar. Take a look at the RSI indicator and check out the negative divergence that is building on the weekly charts. If you are long the dollar, you might want to review and tighten your stops.
How Low Can Crude Oil Go
That's a question better asked to Saudi Arabia as they continues to keep their oil spigots open to the world. Here is my analysis, the trend is down and picking bottoms or tops in markets is not a high percentage game. Before crude oil (NYMEX:CL.H15.E) changes trend, it needs to begin to base out and find a floor. I will leave picking bottoms to others. Meanwhile, the trend is your friend.
Have a Different View?
I invite your comments, pro or con. As always, we appreciate your feedback.
Just Click Here to get all of my Blog Post in your inBox
Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.comCo-Creator, MarketClub
Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!
The net weekly change for the DOW was -0.53% and there was an even smaller loss of -0.42% for the NASDAQ. All three indices formed an important Japanese candlestick pattern, a weekly doji candle. Why is this important? A doji candlestick often signals indecision in the market. When the doji forms in an uptrend or downtrend, this is normally seen as significant, as it is a signal that the buyers are losing conviction when formed in an uptrend and a signal that sellers are losing conviction if seen in a downtrend.
What To Watch For This Week
A lower weekly close would indicate to me that the buyers are beginning lose control of this aging bull market. Here is the "line in the sand" for each of the indices that I am watching. Once below this line, watch for heavy liquidation to come in across the board.
DOW: 17.262 S&P500: 1,992 NASDAQ: 4.090
Gold Is Now Officially On The Move
You might remember on January 7th, I wrote a post on gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) and the key neckline level. The key neckline in gold was broken to the upside last Friday when gold closed out the week with a very positive 2.9% gain. I now have a confirmed upside target zone of $1,340, which equates to about $132-$134 on the ETF, GLD. To follow all of the entry and exit points for gold, check in daily with the World Cup Portfolio.
How High Can The Dollar Go?
The U.S. Dollar Index (NYBOT:DX) continues to push higher against most currencies with another weekly gain of 0.85% in the Dollar Index. The question on everyone's mind is, how high can the dollar go without a correction? To this observer, it appears that there are technical storm clouds gathering that could spell trouble for the dollar. Take a look at the RSI indicator and check out the negative divergence that is building on the weekly charts. If you are long the dollar, you might want to review and tighten your stops.
How Low Can Crude Oil Go
That's a question better asked to Saudi Arabia as they continues to keep their oil spigots open to the world. Here is my analysis, the trend is down and picking bottoms or tops in markets is not a high percentage game. Before crude oil (NYMEX:CL.H15.E) changes trend, it needs to begin to base out and find a floor. I will leave picking bottoms to others. Meanwhile, the trend is your friend.
Have a Different View?
I invite your comments, pro or con. As always, we appreciate your feedback.
Just Click Here to get all of my Blog Post in your inBox
Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.comCo-Creator, MarketClub
Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!
Saturday, April 5, 2014
The Odds Are In Your Favor To Trade Gold This Quarter
Using MarketClub's weekly and daily Trade Triangles, I have found that over the last 6 1/2 years, the second quarter of the year has shown the most consistent profits in gold. These past results showed a quarterly gain on average of $7,104.83 on one futures contract.
Gold (XAUUSDO) enjoyed a nice move up earlier in the year, reaching a high of $1393.35 and has pulled back to an important Fibonacci support area. I want to watch this market very carefully and wait for the weekly Trade Triangle to turn green to get bullish on gold. That's not to say I am not longer term bullish, it only means that my timing will kick in when the weekly Trade Triangle turns into a green Trade Triangle.
Besides the Fibonacci support area, the RSI indicator is also at a very low level, similar to that of December 2013.
Trading Results
Q2 of 2008 $965.00
Q2 of 2009 $870.00
Q2 of 2010 $7,057.00
Q2 of 2011 $6,700.00
Q2 of 2012 $4,223.00
Q2 of 2013 $31,260.00
TOTAL $42,629.00
AVE GAIN $7,104.83
The results are based on signals using MarketClub's real time spot gold prices and margin of $8,333. This particular trading strategy and results are based on trading one futures contract, both from the long and short side. An ETF could be substituted, but I suspect the results would be quite different.
Trading Rules
How to use MarketClub's Trade Triangles to trade gold:
Use the weekly Trade Triangle to determine the major trend and initial positions. Use the daily Trade Triangles for timing purposes.
Gold entry and exit signals are generated from the spot Gold (XAUUSDO) chart.
Let me give you an example: if the last weekly Trade Triangle is GREEN, this indicates that the major trend is up for that market. You would use the initial GREEN weekly Trade Triangle as an entry point. You would then use the next RED daily Trade Triangle as an exit point. You would only reenter a long position if and when a GREEN daily Trade Triangle kicked in.
You would then use the next RED daily Trade Triangle as an exit point, provided that the GREEN weekly Trade Triangle is still in place and the trend is positive for that market. The reverse is true when you have a RED weekly Trade Triangle. You would use the initial RED weekly Trade Triangle as an entry point for a short position. You would then use the next GREEN daily Trade Triangle as an exit point.
Only Trade With Risk Capital
Even if the odds are in your favor, don't forget that there are no guarantees in trading and only funds that you can afford to lose should be used to trade with.
See you in the markets!
Adam Hewison
Make sure to catch Adam on INO TV
Sign up for one of our Free Trading Webinars....Just Click Here!
Gold (XAUUSDO) enjoyed a nice move up earlier in the year, reaching a high of $1393.35 and has pulled back to an important Fibonacci support area. I want to watch this market very carefully and wait for the weekly Trade Triangle to turn green to get bullish on gold. That's not to say I am not longer term bullish, it only means that my timing will kick in when the weekly Trade Triangle turns into a green Trade Triangle.
Besides the Fibonacci support area, the RSI indicator is also at a very low level, similar to that of December 2013.
Trading Results
Q2 of 2008 $965.00
Q2 of 2009 $870.00
Q2 of 2010 $7,057.00
Q2 of 2011 $6,700.00
Q2 of 2012 $4,223.00
Q2 of 2013 $31,260.00
TOTAL $42,629.00
AVE GAIN $7,104.83
The results are based on signals using MarketClub's real time spot gold prices and margin of $8,333. This particular trading strategy and results are based on trading one futures contract, both from the long and short side. An ETF could be substituted, but I suspect the results would be quite different.
Trading Rules
How to use MarketClub's Trade Triangles to trade gold:
Use the weekly Trade Triangle to determine the major trend and initial positions. Use the daily Trade Triangles for timing purposes.
Gold entry and exit signals are generated from the spot Gold (XAUUSDO) chart.
Let me give you an example: if the last weekly Trade Triangle is GREEN, this indicates that the major trend is up for that market. You would use the initial GREEN weekly Trade Triangle as an entry point. You would then use the next RED daily Trade Triangle as an exit point. You would only reenter a long position if and when a GREEN daily Trade Triangle kicked in.
You would then use the next RED daily Trade Triangle as an exit point, provided that the GREEN weekly Trade Triangle is still in place and the trend is positive for that market. The reverse is true when you have a RED weekly Trade Triangle. You would use the initial RED weekly Trade Triangle as an entry point for a short position. You would then use the next GREEN daily Trade Triangle as an exit point.
Only Trade With Risk Capital
Even if the odds are in your favor, don't forget that there are no guarantees in trading and only funds that you can afford to lose should be used to trade with.
See you in the markets!
Adam Hewison
Make sure to catch Adam on INO TV
Sign up for one of our Free Trading Webinars....Just Click Here!
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Coffee - It's more then just Starbucks' Achilles' Heel
If you having been following us you know that coffee [ticker JO] has been one of our favorite trades for early 2014. Our trading partner Adam Hewison sent us this great post on coffee and it's effect on price action in Starbucks [SBUX].......
Today, I am going to be analyzing the relationship between Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX) and its main raw commodity, coffee beans.
Let me start off by saying that I really like Starbucks and the coffee it sells. In fact, my favorite drink at Starbucks is a Venti Coffee Frappuccino with one third the ice, blended five times. Major Challenges
Starbucks faces a major challenge, one it cannot control - the price of its major commodity, coffee.
With one of the worst droughts in history hitting Brazil's coffee belt region, it is rapidly pushing prices higher. This is no ordinary drought as it is forcing more than 140 cities in Brazil to ration water. Reports in Brazilian newspapers indicate that some neighborhoods are receiving water only every three days. This is serious, as Brazil produces most of the world's coffee.
With Coffee (NYBOT:KC.H14.E) prices at 14 month highs, there is little to suggest that this trend is going to change any time soon. It would appear as though early predictions are indicating that coffee supplies could be 5 million bags lower than consumption for the 2014–2015 season.
The other side of the coin is that there are more and more people drinking coffee. We are seeing that in developing markets such as Brazil, India, and China where they are acquiring a taste for this delicious beverage.
I'm sure that Starbucks can put pressure on the growers and the wholesalers, but that will only go so far in savings. Eventually, they're going to have to take a hit on their bottom line because of the drought in Brazil and higher raw commodity prices.
When does the consumer eventually say that cup of coffee at Starbucks is just too expensive? Will consumers, instead of having one cup every day, cut back to maybe every other day?
A Tale Of Two Charts
In the two charts below, you'll see a broad yellow column highlighting the same time frames on each chart. It shows the high period in Starbucks and a low period in coffee prices.
What Does This Company Do?
Starbucks Corporation operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, packaged roasted whole bean and ground coffees, single serve products, juices and bottled water.
Chart Legend & Technical Picture For Starbucks (Black Numbers)
1. All Trade Triangles are red and negative
2. Yellow column shows high in stock prices and inverse in coffee price
3. Downtrend firmly in place
Chart Legend & Technical Picture For Coffee (Black Numbers)
1. All Trade Triangles are green and positive
2. Yellow column shows low in coffee prices and inverse in stock price
3. Uptrend firmly in place
To summarize, I expect the current downtrend in Starbucks to continue unless there is a dramatic reversal in coffee prices or a reversal with the Trade Triangles.
If I am correct in my analysis and these two trends continue, Starbucks could move down to the following Fibonacci support levels:
38.2% @ $67.85
50% @ $63.31
61.8% @ $58.77
I hope you found this Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX)/Coffee (NYBOT:KC.H14.E) comparison informative and helpful.
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
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This weeks special....Get our FREE "Channel Trading Program"
Let me start off by saying that I really like Starbucks and the coffee it sells. In fact, my favorite drink at Starbucks is a Venti Coffee Frappuccino with one third the ice, blended five times. Major Challenges
Starbucks faces a major challenge, one it cannot control - the price of its major commodity, coffee.
With one of the worst droughts in history hitting Brazil's coffee belt region, it is rapidly pushing prices higher. This is no ordinary drought as it is forcing more than 140 cities in Brazil to ration water. Reports in Brazilian newspapers indicate that some neighborhoods are receiving water only every three days. This is serious, as Brazil produces most of the world's coffee.
With Coffee (NYBOT:KC.H14.E) prices at 14 month highs, there is little to suggest that this trend is going to change any time soon. It would appear as though early predictions are indicating that coffee supplies could be 5 million bags lower than consumption for the 2014–2015 season.
The other side of the coin is that there are more and more people drinking coffee. We are seeing that in developing markets such as Brazil, India, and China where they are acquiring a taste for this delicious beverage.
I'm sure that Starbucks can put pressure on the growers and the wholesalers, but that will only go so far in savings. Eventually, they're going to have to take a hit on their bottom line because of the drought in Brazil and higher raw commodity prices.
When does the consumer eventually say that cup of coffee at Starbucks is just too expensive? Will consumers, instead of having one cup every day, cut back to maybe every other day?
A Tale Of Two Charts
In the two charts below, you'll see a broad yellow column highlighting the same time frames on each chart. It shows the high period in Starbucks and a low period in coffee prices.
What Does This Company Do?
Starbucks Corporation operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, packaged roasted whole bean and ground coffees, single serve products, juices and bottled water.
Chart Legend & Technical Picture For Starbucks (Black Numbers)
1. All Trade Triangles are red and negative
2. Yellow column shows high in stock prices and inverse in coffee price
3. Downtrend firmly in place
Chart Legend & Technical Picture For Coffee (Black Numbers)
1. All Trade Triangles are green and positive
2. Yellow column shows low in coffee prices and inverse in stock price
3. Uptrend firmly in place
To summarize, I expect the current downtrend in Starbucks to continue unless there is a dramatic reversal in coffee prices or a reversal with the Trade Triangles.
If I am correct in my analysis and these two trends continue, Starbucks could move down to the following Fibonacci support levels:
38.2% @ $67.85
50% @ $63.31
61.8% @ $58.77
I hope you found this Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX)/Coffee (NYBOT:KC.H14.E) comparison informative and helpful.
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
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Thursday, November 14, 2013
Exxon Mobil - The Surprising Big Chart Picture
While our trading partner Adam Hewsion was reviewing his energy portfolio this morning, he stopped and looked at the chart for Exxon Mobile (NYSE:XOM). He immediately noticed major resistance coming in at the $95 level. Can Exxon break through this major resistance level and take off to the upside?
He measured from the resistance at $95 all the way down to the low in July of 2010, the difference is around $35. If he then added $35 to the breakout point, it takes us to his target zone of $130 per share for Exxon. Now remember, the market must move over the $95 level for this to happen.
Just Click Here to take a look at Adam's chart work and details for a potential ExxonMobil trade.
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He measured from the resistance at $95 all the way down to the low in July of 2010, the difference is around $35. If he then added $35 to the breakout point, it takes us to his target zone of $130 per share for Exxon. Now remember, the market must move over the $95 level for this to happen.
Just Click Here to take a look at Adam's chart work and details for a potential ExxonMobil trade.
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Friday, August 16, 2013
Adam weighs in ...... Is Gold Indicating Trouble Ahead?
As another trading week comes to a close, it is worth noting that gold is closing at a nine week high for a Friday. I believe that this is a significant event, and believe that gold has now put in a base to move higher later this year and next year.
It's a little ironic that hedge fund traders, like George Soros, recently divested themselves of their long gold positions, as it now appears that the market has put in a major base and wants to move higher.
Our long term monthly Trade Triangle for gold continues to be in a negative mode. However, this Trade Triangle [click here to get a free trial of Adam's Trade Triangle technology] is slowly beginning to flatten out and I would not be surprised to see it change to green in the not too distant future. In today's report, I will be covering gold and a gold stock that you may want to trade, as it flashed a major buy signal today.
I will also be covering some very interesting stocks that I think have potential on the upside after their recent correction from their highs, as well as my analysis of the major markets and what I am looking for in next week's market.
Have a great trading day and a super weekend,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub
P.S. Click here to check out Adam's INO TV. It's FREE!
John Carter's "Dirty Secrets of Weekly Options".... New Video
Thursday, August 1, 2013
How To Find The Right Timing Techniques To Trade Crude Oil
Today I want to share with you how you can trade in the crude oil markets using MarketClub's Trade Triangle technology for timing.
It's a short lesson that visually illustrates how and when you should use this successful timing technique.....
Watch "How To Find The Right Timing Techniques To Trade Crude Oil"
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Friday, April 12, 2013
Adam's Video Update: Gold and Crude Oil Prices Head South
Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid day market update for Friday, the 12th of April.
Gold
Gold (XAUUSDO) continues to come under pressure and is going to close out the week on a negative note. It would appear as though nobody wants to hold gold anymore. The gold market is close to a key area of support around the $1,500 area. A close below that area today does not auger too well for this market. Rumors that Cyprus is selling gold to improve its bank balances is also adding downside pressure on an already depressed market. We will be checking in on gold today and analyzing just how far this market can go from here.
Watch Today's Video Update Here
Crude Oil
The crude oil market (CL.M13.E) flashed another negative Trade Triangle this morning is quickly entering a critical juncture were it needs to find support. At the moment, we are in choppy trading markets that are indicative of potential trend changes in the future. We will be jumping into the oil patch today and analyzing just what's going on with this market using our Trade Triangle technology.
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ
The key thing in trading is not to fight the major trend, the odds favor letting the trend develop and then move with the trend. At the beginning of 2013, many analysts were thinking the fundamentals and debt load was too great for stocks to move higher. Since that time, we have seen double digit moves in the major indices.
Using our Trade Triangle technology, we were able to capture 95% of the move up and remain positive on the market. Providing that the Fed keeps pumping money into the system to the tune of $85 billion a month, will the market continue to move higher? On the other hand, markets have a tendency to over shoot both on the upside and downside. Technical analysis can help in deciphering when the market is changing course.
Bailout Nation
Once again, Cyprus is in the headlines over confusion with the state of the financial bailout and it has led to some sharp moves in European markets this Friday. The negative market action wiped out most of the positive reaction and the better-than-expected Euro-zone industrial production figures. The story on Cyprus has not yet been written and I still believe that Cyprus is the tip of the iceberg for Europe.
Watch Today's Video Update Here
Potential Chaos Ahead
North Korea - ticking down towards ...
Japan - Kuroda is the king risk
Europe - Portugal and Ireland - economic risk
The Fed - Hints QE is coming to an end
May 19th – Debt ceiling suspension expire
Have a great trading day,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub
Check out our "Trade Triangle Technology" and give it a test drive!
Gold
Gold (XAUUSDO) continues to come under pressure and is going to close out the week on a negative note. It would appear as though nobody wants to hold gold anymore. The gold market is close to a key area of support around the $1,500 area. A close below that area today does not auger too well for this market. Rumors that Cyprus is selling gold to improve its bank balances is also adding downside pressure on an already depressed market. We will be checking in on gold today and analyzing just how far this market can go from here.
Watch Today's Video Update Here
Crude Oil
The crude oil market (CL.M13.E) flashed another negative Trade Triangle this morning is quickly entering a critical juncture were it needs to find support. At the moment, we are in choppy trading markets that are indicative of potential trend changes in the future. We will be jumping into the oil patch today and analyzing just what's going on with this market using our Trade Triangle technology.
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ
The key thing in trading is not to fight the major trend, the odds favor letting the trend develop and then move with the trend. At the beginning of 2013, many analysts were thinking the fundamentals and debt load was too great for stocks to move higher. Since that time, we have seen double digit moves in the major indices.
Using our Trade Triangle technology, we were able to capture 95% of the move up and remain positive on the market. Providing that the Fed keeps pumping money into the system to the tune of $85 billion a month, will the market continue to move higher? On the other hand, markets have a tendency to over shoot both on the upside and downside. Technical analysis can help in deciphering when the market is changing course.
Bailout Nation
Once again, Cyprus is in the headlines over confusion with the state of the financial bailout and it has led to some sharp moves in European markets this Friday. The negative market action wiped out most of the positive reaction and the better-than-expected Euro-zone industrial production figures. The story on Cyprus has not yet been written and I still believe that Cyprus is the tip of the iceberg for Europe.
Watch Today's Video Update Here
Potential Chaos Ahead
North Korea - ticking down towards ...
Japan - Kuroda is the king risk
Europe - Portugal and Ireland - economic risk
The Fed - Hints QE is coming to an end
May 19th – Debt ceiling suspension expire
Have a great trading day,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub
Check out our "Trade Triangle Technology" and give it a test drive!
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Adam's Daily Video Update: The Bear is Back!
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Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Will Crude Oil be the New Gold Standard in 2012?
February crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off December's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If February extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 103.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 98.70 would signal that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is November's high crossing at 103.28. Second resistance is the May 2011 high crossing at 105.34. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 98.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 92.73.
With a Chart Analysis Score of +100, this market is in a strong upward trend. The crude oil market has resistance starting at $102 up to the $103 level. Long and intermediate term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.
Monthly Trade Triangles for long term trends is bullish. Weekly Trade Triangles for intermediate term trends is bullish. And daily Trade Triangles for short term trends are bullish.
Just click here to check out Adam Hewisons first video of 2012.
Five Best Trade Ideas for the Next Two Weeks
Friday, December 16, 2011
Adam Hewison: Five Ways to Improve Your Trading During “Silly Season”
Trading is a serious business. If you want to be successful you have to practice, just like an athlete would. I don’t think there is an athlete out there who just woke up and said I’m going to be a world class athlete and achieved that goal without practicing.
After December 15 most successful traders who made their money during the year are headed to either Florida, Palm Springs, or just taking a break to spend time with family. What makes the silly season, silly?
It has everything to do with the lack of volume in trading. When you have very little volume it is easy for markets to be, forgive me because I am about to say the M word – manipulated – by just a few traders. You do not want to be ending your year at the mercy of markets that are erratic at best. You may as well just head out to Las Vegas and take a shot at the roulette wheel.
So how can you avoid this trading trap? Here’s what I do every year.....
After the 15th I close out all of my positions win, lose, or draw, and say thank you very much for another good year. Once I have cleared my trading book I’m free to enjoy the silly season without falling prey to the big M. I let the markets be the markets, because I know they will be there next year and I want to be prepared physically and mentally to take advantage of them.
That being said, here are my five key recommendations for you during silly season.....
1. Enjoy time with your family and friends.
2. Be appreciative what you have, not what you don’t have. There are a lot more folks that have a whole lot less than you than folks who have more.
3. Give something back. It doesn’t matter what it is, or how small, give something back; it will make you feel good.
4. Enjoy the season. Forget about the markets they will be there next year.
5. Take some quiet time for yourself to regenerate your spirit.
For me, number 5 means sitting in a quiet room by myself and thinking about all of the different things that have happened in the past year. Doing this keeps me grounded and prepares me for the year ahead. This quiet time helps me put everything into perspective and gets me in the right frame of mind for trading in the New Year. This quiet time restores your inner strength, which is something you need in trading.
So there you have it. That is how I avoid silly season and prepare myself for the new trading year.
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Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Adam Hewison: Was Last Week’s Market Rally a Head Fake?
The rally was pretty unusual in the fact that it was on very light volume and it took off to the upside very quickly without any kind of market consolidation.
This is going to be a big week! Are we going to continue going up? Or are we going to see the longer term downtrend kick in? A downside reversal could be quite dramatic. This also holds true for the crude oil market, which has been mirroring the US equity markets.
The problems in Europe remain and we see little reason to celebrate any victories on that front. Greece will eventually default, and it remains to be seen if Ireland, Spain and Italy will dodge a bullet.
Every week it seems we go from “the world is coming to an end” to euphoria. Eventually the markets will sort out this conundrum. Our view longer term remains with our Trade Triangle technology which remains negative on the equity markets indicating long term weakness.
Now, let’s go to the 6 major markets we track every day. Click here for unlimited access to this and other trading videos FREE!
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Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Adam Hewison: Harrisburg, PA. Seeks Bankruptcy..... Is America Next in Line?
It’s not difficult to believe that Harrisburg Pennsylvania is filing for bankruptcy with overwhelming debt of almost half $1 billion. It shows once again that politicians have no clue when it comes to spending money, particularly when it’s someone else’s money.
The question we must all ask ourselves is what’s next? In our home state of Maryland we have $20 billion unfunded liability for entitlements. I’m sure it’s the same across the country. We have had reckless politicians spending too much money and not being held responsible for when things go wrong. It was interesting to see what was happening in the Ukraine, where they’re jailing their former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, to a seven year jail term for abuse of power during term as prime minister.
Just imagine how that would play out in other countries, including the United States. It certainly would make politicians think before committing and spending money that we don’t have. At the moment, no one is held responsible.
It also looks like the politicians in the Euro Zone have kicked the can down the road. This just moves the financial disaster to future generations. No one politician wants to assume responsibility for the incredible amount of future debt they are creating. What does this all have to do with the markets?
We will rely on our Trade Triangle technology to keep us in the loop and in the markets at the right time.
Let's check out the action in the crude oil markets today.....
With both weekly and monthly Trade Triangles in place, we see little enthusiasm to go long this market at the present time. Presently this market is overbought and we expect to see a pullback from current levels. As you know this market has been closely tied in to the movements of the S&P 500. Overall we still view the trend in this market as negative. Intermediate and Long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market. Please note that we are switching to the December contract for crude oil.
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 65
November crude oil posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rebound off last week's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If November extends the rally off last week's low, September's high crossing at 90.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.64 would temper the near term friendly outlook.
First resistance is September's high crossing at 90.69.
Second support is July's high crossing at 101.39.
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.95.
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.65.
Just click here to watch todays video that covers the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
Here is a preview of our MarketClub Trade Triangle Chart Analysis and Smart Scan technology
Just imagine how that would play out in other countries, including the United States. It certainly would make politicians think before committing and spending money that we don’t have. At the moment, no one is held responsible.
It also looks like the politicians in the Euro Zone have kicked the can down the road. This just moves the financial disaster to future generations. No one politician wants to assume responsibility for the incredible amount of future debt they are creating. What does this all have to do with the markets?
We will rely on our Trade Triangle technology to keep us in the loop and in the markets at the right time.
Let's check out the action in the crude oil markets today.....
With both weekly and monthly Trade Triangles in place, we see little enthusiasm to go long this market at the present time. Presently this market is overbought and we expect to see a pullback from current levels. As you know this market has been closely tied in to the movements of the S&P 500. Overall we still view the trend in this market as negative. Intermediate and Long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market. Please note that we are switching to the December contract for crude oil.
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 65
November crude oil posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rebound off last week's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If November extends the rally off last week's low, September's high crossing at 90.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.64 would temper the near term friendly outlook.
First resistance is September's high crossing at 90.69.
Second support is July's high crossing at 101.39.
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.95.
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.65.
Just click here to watch todays video that covers the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
Here is a preview of our MarketClub Trade Triangle Chart Analysis and Smart Scan technology
Monday, October 10, 2011
Adam Hewison: If Slovakia Votes No, Crude Oil Tanks on Tuesday
These are job openings that the private sector needs to fill. I know from our own experience here at our company, finding competent people it extremely difficult. Part of the problem, in my opinion, is that many job applicants have no skills.
The CEO of Cummings, Tim Selso said he can’t find skilled workers for his manufacturing plants. This is a common complaint that many CEOs share.
According to economists, the average worker contributes about $45,000 a year to GDP. If we could just fill 1/3 of those jobs, it would have a huge impact on the economy.
Like many traders today, we were surprised at the velocity of the rally which is based on a potential agreement coming into place in Europe. At the moment no one knows what the deal is, and nobody in a position of authority is indicating what the deal is. The vote from Slovakia has the potential to torpedo any recovery and is a big hurdle approaching tomorrow. If that tiny country votes “no” to this proposed agreement, it could send stocks, and in particular bank stocks, to the cellar!
That leaves us with just one option.....What are the Trade Triangles saying?
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 55
The November crude oil market has rallied back to an area that was previous support and should present some fairly serious resistance. We were somewhat surprised at today’s action however, our Trade Triangles remain in a sideways mode indicating a trading range.
We are not totally convinced that this market has turned around and we expected to once again reverse and test the $80 level. As you know, this market has been closely tied in to the movements of the S&P 500. Overall we still view the trend in this market as negative. Intermediate and Long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.
November crude oil closed up $2.40 a barrel at $85.38 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit a fresh three week high. Bulls have gained solid upside technical momentum just recently. Prices have rallied around $10.00 a barrel from last week's low. Higher U.S. stock indexes and a sharply lower U.S. dollar index helped to boost the crude oil market again today. The bulls have the near term technical advantage.
How To Find Winning Trades In Any Market
Saturday, October 1, 2011
Adam Hewison: There Is Only One Word to Describe Q3 .... Volatility
I think there is only one word to describe Q3: volatility. Volatility ruled the markets and has pushed many investors to the sidelines. Conservatively, it is better to be in cash than be long the equity markets at the present time.
I find it hard to believe that some of the pundits say we can go into defensive stocks. My question would be why? Why be in the market when it’s going down? It just makes no sense to me.
The philosophy behind our Trade Triangle Technology is very simple.
We want to be long the market when it is going up and either short or out of the market when it is going down. The reality is the market can only do three things: it can go up, down, or sideways, that’s it! How many things in life do you know that are that simple?
Yesterday, we talked about the major trends in the markets and how important it is to know the direction of the trend for each and every market you have an interest in.
Let's see what our Trade Triangles are telling us about the crude oil market.....
Crude oil has been quite predictable. Tell me what the equity markets are going to do tomorrow, and I’ll tell you what the crude oil market will also do. This market is lower for the quarter and the month, but at the moment is slightly higher for the week. Our Trade Triangles are still indicating a very negative mode and we would not be surprised to see the $78 level tested again. A market close below $80 a barrel today, should be viewed as extremely negative for the crude oil. Intermediate and Long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 85
Check out Adams daily video on the six markets he publicly covers.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Adam Hewison: Do You See the Trees In a Forest, Or Do You Just See the Forest?
If your involved in the markets, it is easy to fall into the trap of just looking at the minute or hourly charts, rather than considering the market as a whole. When you can’t see the market for the minutia, it means that you are deeply involved in a situation, and you are perhaps focusing too much on the inner workings of the market, and not enough on the big trends.
With all of this talk of problems in Greece, defaults, contagion and a host of other problems in Europe, it is easy for traders to get distracted, and not see the forest for the trees.
The most important element in trading in my opinion, is the direction the major trend for that market. It doesn’t really matter what the news is, if the market is doing something else. As traders I believe we have to look at the forest in this case the big trends in the marketplace.
Let’s look at them now: S&P 500 index major trend down. Gold major trend up. Metals major trend down. Crude oil major trend down. Dollar index major trend up. CRB index major trend down.
So, there you have it, all the major trends in all the markets we are dealing with right now.
Everything else is just individual trees, that don’t mean a heck of a lot in the big picture.
It takes a tremendous amount of energy to move a market and change a major trend. This kind of energy normally does not happen in one or two days. As they say in statistics, one data point does not make a trend.
Let's take a look at our Trend Analysis and Trade Triangles for Crude Oil......
As the equity markets go, so goes the price of crude oil. The November contract appears to be having some problems with areas of resistance at the $84.00 and $84.50 levels. With both our long term monthly and intermediate term Trade Triangles in a negative mode we expect this market to have another push down to test the $80 and possibly the $78 a barrel level. While this market is presently higher for the week, it is lower for the month and the quarter. Intermediate and Long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.
November crude oil closed up $1.43 a barrel at $82.64 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today as trading has turned very choppy this week. A firmer U.S. stock market and steady U.S. dollar index today did support fresh buying interest in crude. The crude bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 75
Check out our Video... "How To Use Fibonacci Retracements"
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Adam Hewison: The Big Picture
That’s why it’s important to look at the big picture, and the big trends. What looked like a possible reversal yesterday, did not change the big trends in the markets. It just doesn’t happen in one day.
So let’s look at the big trends in the various markets we cover. Equity markets, the big trend is down. Metal markets, the big trend is up. Crude oil, the big trend is down. The dollar index, the big trend is up. And lastly, the CRB index, the big trend is down. Providing you are trading in the direction of the major trend, you have the odds in your favor. Always remember to keep your trading logs and game plan up to date. They will help you become a better trader.
Let's look at where we stand in the crude oil and gold markets......
The crude oil market once again came very close to moving over the $90 a barrel level, and at the time of this report has failed. Presently the Trade Triangles are mixed, indicating that this market is in a trading range. We would use a trading range type strategy to trade this market. Those tools would consist of the Williams % R indicator, the Donchian Trading Channels, and the Parabolic SAR indicator. The big trend monthly Trade Triangle remains negative for this market. Look for crude oil to continue to move in a sideways to lower manner.
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60
With a golds chart analysis Score of + 55, it would appear that the gold market is in near term trading range. Providing that our monthly and weekly Trade Triangles remain intact, we want to approach this market from the long side. The Williams % R is not yet in an oversold condition. The $1,850 to $1,900 levels are resistance for gold, at the moment. Support comes in around the $1,800 area and extends all the way down to $1750. Looking at the market, it would possibly appear as though we have put in a double top. This will only be confirmed with a close below the $1,750 level. Intermediate and long term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
Here is a preview of our MarketClub Trade Triangle Chart Analysis and Smart Scan technology
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Adam Hewison: Is The Market Ready For A Rally?
The gold market once again bounced over the $1,800 an ounce hurdle and is currently trading at $1,822. This market needs to regroup further if it is going to challenge the $2000 level. The trend is in a positive mode despite the recent $200 pullback.
Crude oil is now very much overbought and approaching the upper levels of the Donchian trading channel. We expect that this channel and the fact that this market is overbought will provide enough resistance to any halt any further upside action.
The dollar index continues to bounce off the support level of 73.50 which we have outlined on numerous occasions. Currently this market is trading at 74.00. The CRB index has rallied quite dramatically after making a low on August 9th. This market is largely reflective of the move in crude oil.
Now, let’s go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70
The S&P 500 index rallied to its best levels since August 5th. However, this market is heavily overbought and we still view the longer term trend, based on our monthly Trade Triangle, as negative for this market. We would not rule out a potential rally to the 1230 level or even the 1259 level, both of which represent Fibonacci retracements. You may remember that the 1250 area was key support in this index. It would not be unusual for the market to go back up and test this level now as resistance.
SILVER
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85
The silver market is definitely the stepchild of the metals market and would appear to be regrouping around the $41.00 level. Both of our intermediate and long term indicators are friendly to the silver market and we would not rule out further strength in the near term. The Williams % R indicator is trading around –50 and it is neither oversold nor overbought at this time.
GOLD
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85
The gold market appears to be settling down around the $1,800 an ounce level and with our intermediate and longer term indicators still positive, we must remain in the bullish camp for now. It would appear as though the $1,770 level should provide some support on any pullbacks in this market.
The goal market is in the mid range of its major oscillator, the Williams % R, and therefore is not giving us any clues as to its next swing direction. We would imagine a move over $1,850 will be a very positive indicator for gold. Both intermediate and long term traders should maintain long positions with money management stops in place.
CRUDE OIL
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 65
Please note that our comments are based on the October contract. The 89.19 level we mentioned yesterday was enough to stop the current rally today. The crude oil October contract is very close to the top of the Donchian trading channel. On top of that, the market is extremely overbought and we would not be surprised to see a pullback from current levels. At the present time our long term indicator is negative and our short term weekly Trade Triangle is positive, sending a mixed picture for crude oil. However, the longer term monthly Trade Triangle must be given more weight then the two shorter term ones.
DOLLAR INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 60
Once again the dollar index bounced from the support level at 73.50. The market traded over the 74 level after finding support at 73.50. With a Chart Analysis Score of –60 we would want to trade this market using our Donchian Trading Channels and our Williams %R indicator. The index remains below its 200 day moving average while our longer term Trade Triangle remains positive.
REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60
This index has put in a good performance largely through the move up in crude oil and other commodity type markets. At the moment our indicators are mixed, indicating the absence of a strong trend in either direction. The CRB index is overbought and also at the top of the Donchian trading channel.
We would not be surprised to see some profit taking coming in to this market and a pullback from current levels. Our bias is towards inflation in the future, but I’m expecting to see more of a two way market in this index in the next week or so. Intermediate and short term traders should be out of the market and on the sidelines at the present time.
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Thursday, August 18, 2011
Adam Hewison: The Trend is Your Friend – How True Those Words are Today!
We feel we have a target rich area for trading opportunities right now. Some of the best money can be made during periods just like this. A key to being successful in markets that are having large moves is to be disciplined and follow MarketClub’s Trade Triangles.
So let’s go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100
Today’s action in the S&P 500 is a further reinforcement of the downward trend that has been in place for quite some time. As we said in yesterday’s comments, you must remember that the major trend is down for the equity markets and strong rallies represent shorting opportunities. Looking at the weekly charts, a close at current levels would be extremely negative. The lowest close we have seen on the S&P500 this year is 1119.46. This is another level to watch carefully. We see this market going lower.
SILVER
SILVER
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 75
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 75
Consider these words of wisdom… Do not buy silver because you think it is cheap in comparison to gold. The market continues to be in a broad trading range without a clear-cut trend at this time. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines and out of silver. A Chart Analysis Score of + 75 indicates a two-way market and a trading range. Let us be patient and wait for our Trade Triangles to kick in and give us a solid signal.
GOLD
GOLD
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
The gold market moved to new highs today taking out the previous high of $1814.41. This last surge in gold was caused by a panicky situation in Europe, especially with the European banks. Uncertainty over bank stocks pushed many of the European banks and the US banks to the downside today. Long Term, intermediate and short term traders should hang on for the ride and protect profits with money management stops.
CRUDE OIL
CRUDE OIL
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100
$88.32 was a 50% Fibonacci retracement area, and this level was hit yesterday. It was enough to stop this market on the upside. As you know, we have been bearish on crude oil from the weekly Trade Triangle on August 1st at $94.02 a barrel. Long Term, intermediate and short term traders should hang on for the ride and protect profits with money management stops. The longer term trend for crude oil is down based on our Trade Triangle technology.
DOLLAR INDEX
DOLLAR INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 60
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 60
Our comments today remain pretty much the same as they were yesterday, as there has been very little directional change in this market. The 73.50 level continues to act as support for the dollar index. This market has remained in a fairly well defined trading range for the last several months. With a Chart Analysis Score of -60 we would want to approach this market using our Donchian Trading Channels as well as our Williams %R indicator. The index remains below its 200 day moving average, while our longer-term Trade Triangle remains positive.
REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB commodity index has turned back from the Fibonacci retracement level of 50% at 332.95. This level was hit yesterday. While our bias is towards inflation, the index is currently indicating that we are in more of a deflationary scenario. We want to remain patient and let our Trade Triangles signal when this market has made a trend change to the upside. Long Term, intermediate and short term traders should hang on for the ride and protect profits with money management stops.
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As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves.
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