Gold and Crude Oil Trend Analysis

With a Chart Analysis Score of -50, gold is stuck in a trading range. Despite the move up and pullback in gold last week, it did not change the status of our weekly Trade Triangle. We remain positive on this market longer term and expect we will see it move much higher in 2012 as inflation kicks in around the world. Long term traders should remain positive for this precious metal. Intermediate term traders should be out of this market at the moment and on the sidelines waiting for a buy signal with the weekly Trade Triangle.

BIG PICTURE   Trading Range
Monthly trade triangles for Long term trends = Bullish
weekly trade triangles for intermediate term trends = Bearish
daily trade triangles for short term trends = Bearish
Combined Strength of Trend Score = -50

The $101.75 area basis the January contract appears to be offering resistance for crude oil at the present time. Crude oil remains the shining star of the commodity world and has become the currency of choice. With all of our Trade Triangles green, giving us a +90 Chart analysis score, it would appear as though we are in a strong bullish trend. At the present time all our Trade Triangles remain in a positive mode which is the direction of the major long term trend. Major resistance remains between the $102 and $103 levels. Long term, and intermediate term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

BIG PICTURE Strong Trend Bullish
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Bullish
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Bullish
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Bullish

Combined Strength of Trend Score = +90

HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM
Score: 50 – 65 Trading Range
Score: 70 – 80 Emerging Trend
Score: 85 – 100 Strong Trend


Gold’s 4th Wave Consolidation Nears Completion and Breakout

Is It Reversal Time For the Markets?

At the start of a new week, have we turned around or is this just a correction in a larger bear market?

I think you’ll find today’s video interesting as the S&P 500 has made a remarkable recovery. However, it is back at a crucial Fibonacci retracement level which could present major problems for this index.

In our recent survey we asked traders if they were concerned about what is going on in Europe. A remarkable majority, over 75% said they were, and they do watch events in Europe very closely.
At this point, Europe is really the tail that wags the dog and we are not optimistic that things are going to work out in a positive fashion.

They have had a total of 13 summits in a period of 20 months trying to solve this problem. With the likes of Berlusconi, can you imagine telling him what to do? And other players like Nicholas Sarkozy shouting to Brian Cameron of Great Britain to shut up and butt out. And that’s the stuff we hear about!

Imagine the stuff we don’t heard about.

Let's look at the Trend Analysis for crude oil......

The crude oil market moved over resistance at $90 a barrel and it seems ready to test the Fibonacci retracement level of $91.80. Can this market in fact, close over resistance at $90? Our long term Trade Triangles continue to be negative and we expect they will once again dictate the tone of this market. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines and long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.

Well, December crude oil did close up $4.24 a barrel at $91.63 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 11 week high. Crude bulls gained good upside near term technical momentum today as prices pushed above what was a well defined sideways trading range on the daily bar chart. The crude market was boosted today by a weaker U.S. dollar index, higher U.S. stock indexes and ideas the EU debt crisis is seeing progress toward getting fixed.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70

Now, let’s go to todays video and look at the charts of the six markets we publicly cover and see some of those important retracement levels.

Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!

Adam Hewison: Do You See the Trees In a Forest, Or Do You Just See the Forest?

There is a saying that goes like this “can’t see the forest for the trees” is a reference to people who get so involved with the details of an issue that they lose sight of the big picture.

If your involved in the markets, it is easy to fall into the trap of just looking at the minute or hourly charts, rather than considering the market as a whole. When you can’t see the market for the minutia, it means that you are deeply involved in a situation, and you are perhaps focusing too much on the inner workings of the market, and not enough on the big trends.

With all of this talk of problems in Greece, defaults, contagion and a host of other problems in Europe, it is easy for traders to get distracted, and not see the forest for the trees.

The most important element in trading in my opinion, is the direction the major trend for that market. It doesn’t really matter what the news is, if the market is doing something else. As traders I believe we have to look at the forest in this case the big trends in the marketplace.

Let’s look at them now: S&P 500 index major trend down. Gold major trend up. Metals major trend down. Crude oil major trend down. Dollar index major trend up. CRB index major trend down.
So, there you have it, all the major trends in all the markets we are dealing with right now.

Everything else is just individual trees, that don’t mean a heck of a lot in the big picture.
It takes a tremendous amount of energy to move a market and change a major trend. This kind of energy normally does not happen in one or two days. As they say in statistics, one data point does not make a trend.

Let's take a look at our Trend Analysis and Trade Triangles for Crude Oil......

As the equity markets go, so goes the price of crude oil. The November contract appears to be having some problems with areas of resistance at the $84.00 and $84.50 levels. With both our long term monthly and intermediate term Trade Triangles in a negative mode we expect this market to have another push down to test the $80 and possibly the $78 a barrel level. While this market is presently higher for the week, it is lower for the month and the quarter. Intermediate and Long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.

November crude oil closed up $1.43 a barrel at $82.64 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today as trading has turned very choppy this week. A firmer U.S. stock market and steady U.S. dollar index today did support fresh buying interest in crude. The crude bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 75


Check out our Video... "How To Use Fibonacci Retracements"

Sharon Epperson: Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.



Complimentary Trend Analysis For Stock, Futures, And Forex

Share

Weekend Update: UNG - US Natural Gas Fund ETF

Considering how UNG has been trading in the past few months, this weeks trading was "relatively" stable. This is evidenced by the width of its Bollinger Bands which are tighter than normal. Additionally, UNG is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.

UNG's MACD is indicating a weak bearish signal. Although the indicator is above the critical level of 0, which implies that the underlying moving averages are bullish, the MACD has crossed below its 9day moving average or signal line. This suggests that positive momentum has begun to slow.

On Friday one of our favorite buy/sell indicators, the Parabolic Sar, showed the UNG closing above the trigger point for the Parabolic SAR and is currently registering a bullish signal. The current Significant Point, below which a reversal to the bearish side would occur, is 10.99.

The Stochastic Oscillator is registering a bearish signal as the %K is below the %D. However, UNG is neither overbought nor oversold.

The RSI is currently at 46.56%, just below the critical 50% line which indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Keep an eye on the trend of the RSI to see if the internal strength of UNG is improving or weakening.

Smart Scan Chart Analysis of UNG

Our "Smart Scan" technology shows a strong downtrend in place and that downtrend looks to continues negative longer term and for this market to remain weak. If trading this strong Downtrend make sure to use tight money management stops. The triangle Smart Scan is showing indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored -90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10......Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
-15......New 3 Day Low on Thursday
-20......Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25......New 3 Week Low, Week Ending October 17th
-30......New 3 Month Low in September
-90......Total Score



Just Click Here if you would like to Create a FREE portfolio to receive this type of FREE trend analysis in your inbox.

UNG - Still in a Downtrend, or Has the Tide Turned?

With all of the controversy UNG has been through this summer, more then ever we have to rely on technical analysis and trend indicators. We rely solely on Smart Scan Chart Analysis for the current trend and Smart Scan is still showing some near term weakness in UNG. However, UNG is now in a longer term uptrend and should be traded with tight money management stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored +70 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10......Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
+15......New 3 Day High on Wednesday
+20......Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25......New 3 Week High, Week Ending September 19th
-30......New 3 Month Low in September
+70......Total Score



To get these Smart Scan Analysis in your email inbox daily just Click Here to Create a FREE Stock Portfolio.

Get Your Favorite Market Analyzed, Instantly!

With all the movements in the market recently, especially today, traders and investors are focusing more and more on protecting capital. I’ve found that by properly knowing the trend of the symbols in my portfolio and keeping on top of those moves, I’m able to protect capital and pull profits out of the market when I can.

But staying on top of the changes and momentum shifts often becomes overwhelming, especially if you’re watching a large number of symbols and open positions, like me. One free tool that I utilize to help me keep on top of my portfolio is called Trend Analysis, from the team that runs MarketClub. Trend Analysis is a daily email analysis tool that gives me insight into exactly what my portfolio is doing.

Follow This Link to get your first symbol analyzed and from there you can easily add more symbols to get a daily update, which I find very helpful.

Again thanks go to the MarketClub team for making Trend Analysis available for no cost to us. Just click here to learn more about MarketClub.

Is it Time To Buy Natural Gas? Let's Look at The Charts

In all of my years of trading I have never seen so much attention given to natural gas, especially by retail traders. Investors have been piling into long positions as they see nat gas having no where to go but up. In my opinion that is just trading with emotion. What is the trend in natural gas? Let's take a look at at a trend analysis of UNG, the most common ticker for natural gas.

Smart Scan Chart Analysis confirms that a strong downtrend is in place and that the market remains negative longer term. Trade this trong downtrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders. Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored -100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

-10......Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
-15......New 3 Day Low on Wednesday
-20......Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25......New 3 Week Low, Week Ending August 22nd
-30......New 3 Month Low in July
-100.....Total Score


As you can see natural gas gets the worse grade possible. The pivot point for natural gas today is 3.12 and I have been calling for a target of 2.90. I know some pretty smart traders that have a 2.00 target on nat gas in the future. You say impossible? This reminds me of the days when sugar prices went into the pennies, and traders were drawn in all the way down. Remember the cliche, the trend is your friend. It holds true more today then ever.

To receive these daily trend analysis in your in box just create a FREE portfolio and sign up for a FREE trend analysis on your favorite tickers.

BP Says ‘Little Evidence’ of Recovery After Net Falls

BP, Europe’s second biggest oil company, said profit fell 53 percent on lower energy prices and there is “little evidence” of a recovery in demand. Second quarter net income fell to $4.39 billion, or 23.16 cents a share, from $9.36 billion, or 49.23 cents, in the year earlier period, London based BP said today in a statement. Excluding one time items and inventory changes, earnings beat analyst estimates. Almost two years into a turnaround led by Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward, BP said estimated cost cuts would exceed an earlier target as it increased production to more than 4 million barrels a day.....Complete Story

Get your favorite symbols' FREE Trend Analysis TODAY!

Oil Rebounds From Seven Week Low as Slump Is Viewed as Overdone

Crude oil rebounded from a seven week low as traders took the view that the decline in prices during the longest losing streak this year was overdone. Oil snapped a six day slump as traders bought contracts based on technical indicators. Crude has fallen below $62.55 a barrel yesterday, the lower resistance level of the Bollinger Band, indicating it was oversold. “In the short term, $60 may be the intraday support level, but in the longer term we have to go back to fundamentals, which are weak.....Complete Story

Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY! Click Here

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Morning

Crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally above the 20 day moving average crossing at 70.41. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 73.90 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 68.36 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 70.60

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 73.38
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 73.90

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.15
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 68.36

Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY! Click Here

Could This Be Crude Oil's New Trading Range?

I couldn't resist posting this chart from one of my favorite swing traders Atilla and his blog xtrends. Atilla has become popular this year as a die hard bear, an unfair title as he is just a realistic trader that looks at long term trends. And yes it's true, we are still in a bear market.

Here is his current view on the trading range we are in for crude oil

Just click on the chart to enlarge.....

What Is The Trend For Crude Oil?

Two of the most common tickers our readers seem to be using for trading crude oil are DXO and UCO. Here is a brief trend analysis on both tickers. Sign up for our free trend analysis service and get these in your in box automatically every morning!

DXO Strong Uptrend

Smart Scan Chart Analysis continues positive longer term. Look for this market to remain firm. Strong Uptrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, DXO scored +90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

-10.....Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
+15.....New 3 Day High on Friday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending May 9th
+30.....New 3 Month High in May
+90.....Total Score



UCO Very Weak Uptrend

Smart Scan Chart Analysis shows the current uptrend is at a crossroads and has possibly ended. Look for choppy trading action in the near term Very Weak Uptrend with very tight stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UCO scored +60 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

-10.....Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
+15.....New 3 Day High on Friday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending May 9th
-30.....New 3 Month Low in February
+60.....Total Score




Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


===================================================================================