Weekend Update: UNG - US Natural Gas Fund ETF

Considering how UNG has been trading in the past few months, this weeks trading was "relatively" stable. This is evidenced by the width of its Bollinger Bands which are tighter than normal. Additionally, UNG is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.

UNG's MACD is indicating a weak bearish signal. Although the indicator is above the critical level of 0, which implies that the underlying moving averages are bullish, the MACD has crossed below its 9day moving average or signal line. This suggests that positive momentum has begun to slow.

On Friday one of our favorite buy/sell indicators, the Parabolic Sar, showed the UNG closing above the trigger point for the Parabolic SAR and is currently registering a bullish signal. The current Significant Point, below which a reversal to the bearish side would occur, is 10.99.

The Stochastic Oscillator is registering a bearish signal as the %K is below the %D. However, UNG is neither overbought nor oversold.

The RSI is currently at 46.56%, just below the critical 50% line which indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Keep an eye on the trend of the RSI to see if the internal strength of UNG is improving or weakening.

Smart Scan Chart Analysis of UNG

Our "Smart Scan" technology shows a strong downtrend in place and that downtrend looks to continues negative longer term and for this market to remain weak. If trading this strong Downtrend make sure to use tight money management stops. The triangle Smart Scan is showing indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored -90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10......Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
-15......New 3 Day Low on Thursday
-20......Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25......New 3 Week Low, Week Ending October 17th
-30......New 3 Month Low in September
-90......Total Score



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Natural Gas Fund Issues First New Shares Since July

U.S. Natural Gas Fund, the largest exchange traded fund in the fuel, issued 7 million new shares today, the first new units for the ETF since July because of regulatory efforts to limit market speculation. The new shares, worth $79 million, are backed by a total return swap with an investment grade counterparty, the fund said on its Web site. The Alameda, California based ETF, known as UNG, has said it would offer new shares starting Sept. 28 to purchasers who bought creation baskets of 100,000 units, which are then sold on the open market.

“UNG continues to work to re-balance the existing portfolio of natural gas exposure by using a range of suitable investments including listed futures contracts, listed cleared swaps, as well as over the counter total return swaps,” John Hyland, the fund’s chief investment officer, said in an e-mail. The $4 billion fund grew 11 fold since the start of the year to 347.4 million shares outstanding before it ran out in July. The fund backs its shares with natural gas contracts or swaps, and has been unable to expand its fuel holdings on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Intercontinental Exchange.....Read the entire article

Natural Gas Fund, UNG, Says New Share Creation Tougher Than Expected

The U.S. Natural Gas Fund,UNG,the largest exchange traded fund in the fuel, has found it more difficult than expected to create units using a new process that has purchasers trade natural gas swaps for shares. The Alameda, California based fund has gotten inquiries from market makers and hedge funds, said Jim Stegall, manager of institutional sales for the fund. Many investors prefer swaps of a few weeks or less, while the fund wants six month swaps.

“The vast majority hear that and they don’t want anything to do with that,” Stegall said. The complex swaps for shares creation process may take several weeks, he said.
The $3.9 billion fund grew 11 fold since the start of the year to 347.4 million shares outstanding before it ran out in July. The fund backs its shares with natural gas contracts.....read the entire article

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Natural Gas Fund to Offer Limited Sale of New Shares

U.S. Natural Gas Fund, the world’s largest exchange traded fund in the fuel, will begin selling new shares under “limited circumstances” beginning Sept. 28, the fund said today in a regulatory filing. The fund, which ran out of new shares on July 7, may condition the creation and sale of new shares on a purchaser’s ability to sell to the fund investments that track the price of natural gas, including over the counter swaps, the fund said in its filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has moved to curb energy speculation and imposed limits on natural gas trading. That has forced the fund to halt new share creation while it looks for alternative natural gas investments, it said in an Aug. 12 filing with the SEC.....Read the entire article

Scaling Into the Natural Gas UNG ETF

After this morning’s marginal new recovery high at 14.00, the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (NYSE: UNG) reversed to the downside in reaction to “in-line” inventory data, which pressed indices to an intraday low so far at 13.25. We initiated a 25% long position in our model portfolio at 13.32. If the UNG is unable to consolidate and lift off from the 13.30/25 area, then I will be looking for another loop down towards 13.00, where we will add another 25% long position.....Complete Article

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