The Death of an Energy ETF....RIP DXO

It has been no secret that the CFTC is looking into many exchange traded notes and exchange traded funds that deal in the energy markets, along with other futures and other investment vehicles, to see how the role of speculators has played in the price swings in the commodity markets. Today came the announcement that one ETN is going to be killed (ergo redeemed) as a result. Deutsche Bank announced that it will redeem all outstanding units of its PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long Exchange Traded Notes (NYSE: DXO). The financial firm said that limitations imposed by the exchange on which Deutsche Bank manages the exposure of the notes have resulted in a “regulatory event” as defined in the terms of the notes… and this is causing Deutsche Bank to redeem the notes.....complete story

The First Step in Trading Oil ETF's

Everyday I get emails and questions from traders and investors about trading crude oil using ETF's. And unfortunately most have had a bad experience with trading these ETF's based on crude oil futures because they did not do their homework first. Unlike equities, which entitle the holder to a continuing stake in a corporation, commodity futures contracts specify a delivery date for an underlying physical commodity.

Very important to understand is the Dow Jones—UBS Commodity Index. It uses the settlement prices for the underlying futures contracts. The DJ—AIGCI rolls its contracts over the course of 5 consecutive business days, starting on the 6th business day of the month. Each day, 20% of each futures position that is included in the month’s roll is rolled. Not all contracts are rolled every month.

Before you take another step trading crude oil ETF's such as DXO, DTO, SCO and UCO read and download "A Primer on Index Calculation and Performance".

Visit INO TV Options Channel

Waiting for Crude Oil to Reverse to the Downside

My optimal pullback target zone for the PowerShare DB Double Short Oil ETN (NYSE: DTO) is 82.00-79.00, which has been met today. However, so far the inability of the DTO to turn up with sustainability and leave little doubt that the correction off of the 7/13 high at 99.50 is complete is bothersome, and suggests perhaps that more corrective weakness is forthcoming ahead of my anticipation of a powerful upside pivot reversal.
Let’s notice that there is an unfilled gap from July 2 between 77.70 and 76.15 which might have to be satisfied.....Complete Story

4 FREE Videos from INO TV!

Trend Analysis For DXO

A lot of our readers use ticker DXO for going long crude oil so we thought we would share an example of what our Smart Scan technology can do. Just Click Here to sign up to get these free trend analysis in your in box everyday.

Smart Scan Chart Analysis for DXO shows the current downward trend is at a crossroads and has possibly ended. Look for choppy trading action in the near term. Look for a very weak downtrend and trade with very tight stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, DXO scored -60 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10........Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
-15........New 3 Day Low on Friday
-20........Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25........New 3 Week Low, Week Ending July 11th
+30........New 3 Month High in June
-60........Total Score



4 FREE Videos for INO TV! Click Here

Using DBO, USO and Oil to Play Crude Oil

This article provides some straightforward insight as to how a retail trader/investor can implement a directional play on the price of crude oil. Included is a discussion of the manner in which the forward market for crude oil can cause crude oil ETF returns to deviate from spot market returns. This article is not intended to be authoritative, comprehensive, or highly technical. It is simply a compilation of previous discussions on the topic.....Complete Story

Oil Hints Short Term Low Might be In, Natural Gas Looks to go Lower

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 72.85 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If August renews this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 62.25 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 71.29
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 72.85

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 66.37
Second support is the 38% retracement level at 62.25

For a free online tour of MarketClub….a risk FREE 30 day test drive...Just Click Here

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.71 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, August needs to close above 4.82 or below 3.52 to confirm a breakout of this spring's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.17
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.57

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.87
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.71

A Good Trading Education = a Good Trader = Good Profits….Watch INO TV

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extends this month's trading range. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above 81.97 or below 79.62 are needed to clear up near term direction in the market.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.97
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.69

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.62

4 FREE Videos for INO TV! Click Here

Crude Oil Bulls Still Have Near Term Advantage

July crude oil closed up $0.15 at $68.73 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high and hit another fresh 6 1/2 month high today. Crude oil bulls have the solid near term technical advantage. The "money game" in the commodity markets continues, whereby funds are flowing into commodities with crude oil leading the way. A six week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here

July natural gas closed down 11.0 cents at $4.139 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key "outside markets" were mixed for the natural gas futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were steady higher, crude oil prices were steady lower and the U.S. dollar was lower. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained some momentum recently.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

The September U.S. dollar index closed down 78 points at 78.83 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another fresh eight month low today. Prices are still in an 11 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the solid near term technical advantage.

4 FREE Videos for INO TV! Click Here

Have You Missed The Move In Crude?

Have you missed the move in crude oil? Here's a quick score card on ticker DXO. You be the judge.

Feel free to leave a comment to let our readers know where you think crude is headed.

MACD
DXO is trading above its 200 minute moving average. This is considered to be the sign of a bullish trend. There is added weight to this indication because the moving average is rising and suggests that there has been buying interest in this stock.

Bollinger Bands
DXO is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.

Parabolic SAR
Today, DXO closed above the trigger point for the Parabolic SAR and is currently registering a bullish signal. The current Significant Point, below which a reversal to the bearish side would occur, is 4.12.

Williams %R
According to the %R which is currently at -6.67% and above the critical level of -20, DXO may be overbought. While a stock that is overbought may continue to rally, investors should be especially careful when DXO begins to lose strength and the %R dips below -20.

Directional Movement Index
The +DI line is above the -DI line and the ADX is greater than 20. This is a bullish signal that indicates the stock is in a confirmed uptrend.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


~

What Is The Trend For Crude Oil?

Two of the most common tickers our readers seem to be using for trading crude oil are DXO and UCO. Here is a brief trend analysis on both tickers. Sign up for our free trend analysis service and get these in your in box automatically every morning!

DXO Strong Uptrend

Smart Scan Chart Analysis continues positive longer term. Look for this market to remain firm. Strong Uptrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, DXO scored +90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

-10.....Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
+15.....New 3 Day High on Friday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending May 9th
+30.....New 3 Month High in May
+90.....Total Score



UCO Very Weak Uptrend

Smart Scan Chart Analysis shows the current uptrend is at a crossroads and has possibly ended. Look for choppy trading action in the near term Very Weak Uptrend with very tight stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UCO scored +60 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

-10.....Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
+15.....New 3 Day High on Friday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending May 9th
-30.....New 3 Month Low in February
+60.....Total Score




Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


===================================================================================

Trend Analysis For DXO Mid Day Tuesday

Mid Day Trend Analysis For DXO is clearly in an uptrend

Smart Scan Chart Analysis is showing some near term weakness. However, this market remains in the confines of a longer term uptrend Uptrend with tight money management stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, DXO scored +70 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10.....Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
+15.....New 3 Day High on Monday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending March 28th
-30.....New 3 Month Low in February
+70.....Total Score

Crude Oil Close Above 10 Day Moving Average, Looks Like The Near Term Low Is In

April crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at $40.35 signaling that a short term low appears to have been posted.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.76 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If April renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at $35.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.76.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $47.99.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $37.12.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

Trend Analysis , DXO Double Long Crude

DXO Trend Call.....Sidelines Mode

Smart Scan Chart Analysis indicates a counter trend rally is underway.

It also indicates that the current down trend could be changing and moving into a trading range Sidelines Mode.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, DXO scored -55 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

-10 Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
-15 New 3 Day Low on Monday
+20 Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25 New 3 Week High, Week Ending January 10th
-30 New 3 Month Low in December
-55 Total Score



To get free daily portfolio trend analysis in your email sign up at out INO .Com Just click the link below!

Crude Inventory Numbers Spike Up

Crude oil inventory numbers took a big jump up on Wednesday with crude levels up more than 6 million barrels. A much larger gain then analyst predicted. This combined with a potential cease fire in the middle east has crude dropping more than $3.00 per barrel within minutes of inventory numbers being released at 10:30 eastern time.

Congratulations to all the traders out there that went short yesterday or this morning, make sure to take your profits. The DXO [long crude] traders will surely be looking at this as a buying opportunity and will be more than happy to strip your profits from you. First support is $44.05.

As I click the publish button on this blog post crude has fell $3.83.....is this fun or what?