Natural Gas Moving into a Downtrend

Natural Gas prices have made a decided turn to the downside over the last two weeks as has the short term temperature outlook and the nuclear power outage situation... all now more biased to the bearish side than they were in July. The spot natural gas futures price peaked at about $3.28/mmbtu on July 31 and has been continuing to slide ever since. In the last eight trading sessions the spot natural gas contract has lost $0.507/mmbtu or 15.5% since hitting the high of the uptrend.

Currently the market looks like it is trying to settle into a technical trading range of around $2.70/mmbtu to about $3.17/mmbtu. If the $2.70/mmbtu level is breached the next stopping point could be down to the $2.50/mmbtu level. The Nat Gas market has had a good recovery run rising from around $1.90/mmbtu back during the second week of April to the $3.28/mmbtu high previously highlighted.

The majority of the support for the rally has come from the consistent underperformance of weekly injections throughout the entire injection season so far. In fact weekly injections have averaged around 67% of last year which has resulted in the overhang in inventory continuing to narrow throughout the season. However, even with an underperformance of around 33% so far this season there is still a considerably large amount of gas in inventory versus last year at the moment......Read the entire CME Group article.

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EOG Resources Reports Second Quarter 2012 Results, Increases 2012 Crude Oil Production Growth Target to 37 Percent

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EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG) today reported second quarter 2012 net income of $395.8 million, or $1.47 per share. This compares to second quarter 2011 net income of $295.6 million, or $1.10 per share.

Consistent with some analysts' practice of matching realizations to settlement months and making certain other adjustments in order to exclude one time items, adjusted non GAAP net income for the second quarter 2012 was $312.4 million, or $1.16 per share. Adjusted non GAAP net income for the second quarter 2011 was $299.2 million, or $1.11 per share.

The results for the second quarter 2012 included impairments of $1.5 million, net of tax ($0.01 per share) related to certain non-core North American assets, net gains on asset dispositions of $75.1 million, net of tax ($0.28 per share) and a previously disclosed non cash net gain of $188.4 million ($120.7 million after tax, or $0.45 per share) on the mark to market of financial commodity contracts. During the quarter, the net cash inflow related to financial commodity contracts was $173.2 million ($110.9 million after tax, or $0.41 per share). (Please refer to the attached tables for the reconciliation of adjusted non-GAAP net income to GAAP net income.)

With 86 percent of North American wellhead revenues currently derived from crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids, EOG delivered strong earnings per share growth of 64 percent for the first half of 2012 compared to the same period in 2011. Discretionary cash flow increased 29 percent and adjusted EBITDAX rose 28 percent over the first half of 2011. (Please refer to the attached tables for the reconciliation of non-GAAP discretionary cash flow to net cash provided by operating activities (GAAP) and adjusted EBITDAX (non-GAAP) to income before interest expense and income taxes (GAAP).)

"EOG's financial and operating results get better and better. We are achieving this consistent string of home runs because EOG has captured the finest inventory of onshore crude oil assets in the entire United States and has the technical acumen to maximize reserve recoveries," said Mark G. Papa, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "EOG is the largest crude oil producer in the South Texas Eagle Ford and North Dakota Bakken with the sweet spot positions in both plays. In addition, we are uniquely positioned to market a significant portion of this crude oil at robust Brent type pricing through our own rail offloading facility at St. James, Louisiana, and to reach the Houston Gulf Coast market via the recently completed Enterprise Eagle Ford pipeline."

Read the entire EOG earnings report

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Forget "Libor Gate" .... Crude Oil Market Manipulation Is Far Worse

Since the Global Community all the sudden seems to be preoccupied with Market manipulation even though the authorities knew it was a problem for over 5 years with Libor Rate Fixing. It is high time authorities look at the Crude Oil market which has been manipulated for the last decade and all the sophisticated participants know it is rigged or artificially higher than the fundamentals of the economy dictate.

Consumers are paying an easy $35 dollars per barrel over what they would otherwise doll out for a barrel of oil, if fund managers didn`t use the benchmark futures contracts as their own personal ATMs.

Just a month ago Crude Oil WTI was $78 a barrel and today it is $93. Do you think the fundamentals changed one bit to merit this price swing? Nope! Supply levels are all at record highs around the world. Is it Iran? Please!! It is all about the money flows, nobody takes delivery anymore. Assets have become one big correlated risk trade.

Risk On, Risk Off. If the Dow is up a hundred, you can bet crude is up at least a dollar! It has nothing to do with fundamentals, inventory levels, supply disruptions, etc. It is all about fund flows.

Just click here to read the entire EconMatters article Forget "Libor Gate" .... Crude Oil Market Manipulation Is Far Worse


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ExxonMobil Disappoints, Misses on Earnings

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“First quarter results reflect our ongoing focus on developing and delivering energy needed to support job creation and economic growth. Despite continuing economic uncertainty, we are progressing our robust investment plans to meet the energy demands of the future.

“Capital and exploration expenditures were $8.8 billion as we continue with plans to invest about $37 billion per year over the next five years. “We continued to generate strong cash flow from operations and asset sales with $21.8 billion in the quarter.

“First quarter earnings of $9.5 billion were down 11% from the first quarter of 2011.
“Oil equivalent production was down over 5% from 2011. Excluding the impact of higher prices on entitlement volumes, OPEC quota effects and divestments, production was down 1%.
“The Corporation distributed more than $7 billion to shareholders in the first quarter through dividends and share purchases to reduce shares outstanding.”

FIRST QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

Earnings of $9,450 million, which included gains from asset sales of about $400 million, decreased 11% or $1,200 million from the first quarter of 2011. Earnings per share (assuming dilution) were $2.00, a decrease of 7%. Capital and exploration expenditures were $8.8 billion, up 13% from the first quarter of 2011. Oil equivalent production decreased over 5% from the first quarter of 2011.

Excluding the impact of higher prices on entitlement volumes, OPEC quota effects and divestments, production was down 1%. Cash flow from operations and asset sales was $21.8 billion, including proceeds associated with asset sales of $2.5 billion. Share purchases to reduce shares outstanding were $5 billion. Dividends per share of $0.47 increased 7% compared to the first quarter of 2011.

ExxonMobil and Rosneft announced the signing of agreements to progress a long term Strategic Cooperation Agreement to jointly explore for and develop oil and natural gas in Russia, and to share technology and expertise. Additionally, Rosneft will take equity in exploration and development projects in the United States and Canada.

In Romania, ExxonMobil’s affiliate drilled a successful deepwater new play test on the Neptun block in the Black Sea with the Deepwater Champion drillship and has additional 3D seismic data acquisition planned to support future drilling opportunities on the block.

ExxonMobil participated in a successful exploration well offshore Tanzania which discovered approximately 5 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas in a high quality reservoir. A second exploration well is planned to test another prospect on the block.

Get more details on year to year earnings at ExxonMobil.com

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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Feb. 19th

From the staff at Oil N' Gold .........

Crude oil rose to as high as 104.14 last week and the break of 103.74 resistance confirmed resumption of 74.95. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rally should head towards 114.83 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 100.84 minor support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the medium term up trend from 33.2 shouldn't be completed yet. Rise from 74.95 is indeed tentatively treated as resumption of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 95.44 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

WTI crude oil jumped to a 9 month high of 104.14 before ending the week at 103.24. The prompt month contract gained +4.63% during the week as driven by stronger than expected US data and unexpectedly decline in oil inventory. Brent crude oil also soared almost +2.0% although the Greek rescue deal dragged on. Tensions over Iran intensified.

Last week, there was conflicting news about oil exports from Iran to Europe. It was reported that Iran had decided to halt the supply of its crude to Europe before EU sanctions came into effect. However, it was denied by both spokesmen of both parties.

Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, wrote a letter last week to the EU's foreign policy head Catherine Ashton to seek negotiations about its nuclear program at the 'earliest possibility'. US' Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Ashton said they and allies are reviewing the letter to determine next steps.

How the situation evolves remains highly uncertain and military actions from either side cannot be ruled out. This should continue to support oil prices.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Let Them Eat Cake....That Might Be Tough With These Wheat Prices

After an initial pull back crude oil gained some strength overnight as investors seem to consider the Egypt unrest as little threat to the flow of oil through the Suez canal. It is great to play the threat of disruption in our trades but there is little proof that oil and energy is ever effected by these tense situations.

Still, many hedge funds and commercial traders got stuck on the wrong side of the trade last week as the Egypt fiasco unfolded right as many fund managers were peeling back their long crude positions. But maybe the trade we should be talking about is wheat. Wheat is the cause of the tension in Egypt as the population faces food shortages and other governments around the globe are increasing their wheat and rice inventory. Jordan bought 150,000 metric tons of wheat last Thursday and is in the market for more. And Libya did the same, buying 100,000 metric tons of wheat. Many companies in the middle east are selling gold reserves just to fund these massive purchases of wheat and rice.

Have we missed this trade and is a short on wheat in order? Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a double top with last August's high might be forming. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 8.03 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. With everything else that has gone on in wheat in the past year it would take a lot of nerve to sit on a short position in wheat at this point. This may only be the beginning.

Here's your pivot point, support and resistance numbers for Monday morning......

Crude oil was slightly lower overnight before gaining some strength as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.12 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 83.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.12. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 93.46. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 85.51. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 83.06. Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 88.06.

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends last week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 4.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.506 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.492. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.506. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.252. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 4.225. Natural gas pivot point for Monday morning is 4.315.

Gold was lower overnight and remains poised to extend this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1363.20 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If February extends this month's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing at 1296.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1343.7. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1363.20. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1309.10. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing at 1296.40. Gold pivot point for Monday morning is 1332.70.

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Crude Oil Pares Monthly Gain as Asian Shares Decline, Dollar Rebounds

Crude oil fell in New York, trimming a second monthly gain, as Asian equities dropped and the dollar’s rebound curbed investor demand for raw materials. Crude gave up yesterday’s 0.3 percent increase as equities declined, driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index toward its second weekly drop. Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consuming nation, reached the highest in 17 months after surging 5 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 22, according to Energy Department data. Futures have climbed 2.2 percent this month after an 11 percent rally in September.

“There’s no real consensus in markets so that’s why you’re getting this choppy trading where people are changing their view quite regularly, and that’s creating volatility,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “It does seem to be more sentiment driven and currency driven.” Crude for December delivery declined as much as 55 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $81.63 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $81.71 at 1:50 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract added 24 cents to $82.18. Prices, little changed this week, have gained 3 percent since the start of the year.

The dollar climbed 0.4 percent to $1.3876 against the 16 nation euro, damping the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. The yen rose against all major currencies......Read the entire article.


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B.I.G. Drowning in Crude

This week’s inventory report from the department of Energy showed a huge increase of 5.007 million barrels of crude oil versus expectations for a build of 1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories, on the other hand were down 4.387million barrels versus expectations for a build of 625 thousand barrels. Finally, distillate inventories were down 1.613 million barrels, which was slightly more than the forecast for a draw of 1.5 million barrels.

Below we highlight the weekly stockpiles of crude oil, gasoline, and distillates so far this year and compare them to their historical average. As shown in the charts, while stockpiles have been above average all year for all three, distillates and gasoline have been following their typical seasonal patterns. Crude oil, however, is a different story. As shown, not only have inventory levels of crude been above average all year, but they haven’t been following the seasonal script either. While they should have been declining over the last several months, stockpiles have actually remained relatively unchanged. With today’s large build, crude oil stockpiles are now at their highest point of 2010, and at a higher point relative to the historical average than at any other point this year.

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Oil N'Gold: Risk-Off Trades Dominate, Commodities Slump as USD Strengthens

Risk appetite remained weak in European session amid concerns about 'measured QE' policies. The dollar strengthened while growth currencies and other risk assets plunged. Aussie tumbled as inflation missed expectations. Focus in the US session will be on durable goods orders, new home sales and oil inventory data. Commodities fell across the board. The front month contract for WTI crude oil slipped below 82 ahead of official oil inventory report. Precious metals and base metals also slumped on profit taking.

The Wall Street Journal said that the Fed will likely announce a bond purchase program, worth a few hundred billion dollar spanning over several months, at the FOMC next week. The amount would be significantly lower than market expectations of at least $500B over 5 months. Investors took profits from previous 'short USD' trades as the selloff was probably over extended with such a 'small' amount of QE.

Currently trading at 0.9715, Australian dollar plummeted for a second day against the dollar as CPI surprisingly eased to +2.8% y/y in 3Q10 from +3.1% a quarter ago. This may prolong RBA's pause in tightening. Other commodity currencies, New Zealand and Canadian dollars also fell. The RBNZ will leave the official cash rate......Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Declines From Five Month High Before U.S. Government Supply Report

Crude oil fell from a five month high before a government report that may show U.S. crude supplies rose last week while traders bet that crude’s rally made the commodity too expensive. Crude earlier reached its highest price since May 4 after a report yesterday showed U.S. gasoline inventories dropped last week by the most since May 2009. The Energy Department may say today crude supplies rose by 413,000 barrels, a Bloomberg News survey shows. Oil’s 14 day relative strength index rose above 70, a sign that prices may drop after rising too far, too fast.

“There is some optimism in the market that inventories are decreasing and the oversupply is shrinking,” said Sintje Diek, an HSH Nordbank analyst in Hamburg. “This is an overreaction by the oil market. The higher prices are not sustainable.” Crude for November delivery traded at $82.71 a barrel, down 11 cents, or 0.1 percent, on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:08 p.m. London time. It earlier climbed as much as 51 cents to $83.33 a barrel. Brent crude for November settlement traded at $84.71 a barrel, down 13 cents, on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

New York futures rose 1.7 percent yesterday after the Institute for Supply Management’s index of non manufacturing businesses, which covers about 90 percent of the U.S. economy, climbed to 53.2 from 51.5 in August. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected the index would advance to 52. Crude’s 14 day relative strength index, a measure of how fast prices have risen or fallen in that period, was at 70.1 today. A reading of 70 or more can be taken as a sign that a market is “overbought” and prices may drop......Read the entire inventory report.


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Phil Flynn: When Bad News Becomes Good News

Oh sure the economic data did not get any better. New homes sales were a disaster and the Energy Information Agency report was very bearish yet the good news is that a lot of the bad news was already priced in. Now doesn’t that make you feel better? Yes things are lousy but as bad as they are at this point in time we actually priced in that things were even worse! Yippee!! Time to celebrate! Forget that doom and gloom of Tuesday. Now its doom and zoom as the market tries to tell itself hey nothing can be that bad! Can it?

Well I hate to be a bummer but it can. The oil inventory report shows that the economy has slipped back into recession. It is a portrait of everything that is wrong about the economy. Oil and product supplies are surging reflecting the same things we have seen in other markets. It shows that the economy, somewhere in the middle of summer, hit a brick wall and went back into recession. Oh sure some may say that the builds are seasonal and that this is to be expected yet the magnitude of oil supply and the direction demand is going is sending out clear signals that.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Hits Five Week Lows, Inventory Fears Weigh

Crude futures dropped below $74 Wednesday, hitting five week lows as equities fell and data from an industry trade group showed large builds in already high U.S. oil inventories. Light, sweet crude for September delivery recently traded $1.61, or 2.1%, lower at $74.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded $1.29 lower at $75.64 a barrel.

Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry trade group, said oil inventories rose by 5.8 million barrels last week, while stocks gasoline and distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, rose by around 2 million barrels each. The unexpected rise in inventories combined with falling equities Wednesday morning to push crude to the lowest level since July 7. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently down 48 points to 10357.

Growing stockpiles suggest that demand for oil and oil products is having trouble keeping up with supply, a worrying prospect for a market already flush with crude. Stockpiles at the Cushing, Okla., delivery point for Nymex benchmark crude are inching closer to record levels set in May. And inventories of gasoline remain above five-year averages amid the important U.S. summer driving season.

The Department of Energy is set to report its own statistics on inventories at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday. These more influential data are expected to show a 1.3-million-barrel decline in crude stocks, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts. Gasoline stocks are seen falling by 500,000 barrels, while distillate inventories are expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Tops $80 a Barrel for First Time Since May as Equities Rise

Crude oil surged above $81 a barrel for the first time since May as a rally in global equity markets increased speculation the economy is strengthening. Oil jumped as much as 3.6 percent after equities climbed on better than expected earnings and the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing gauge fell less than forecast. The dollar dropped against the euro, boosting the investment appeal of commodities.

“Oil is following the S&P 500,” said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Washington. “Fundamentals don’t seem to matter. You don’t need to be an oil analyst anymore. You just need to be a stock market analyst.” Crude for September delivery rose $2.44, or 3.1 percent, to $81.39 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $81.77, the highest price since May 5. Futures climbed 4.4 percent in July, the biggest monthly gain since March. Prices are up 17 percent from a year ago.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 2 percent to 1,123.86 following positive earnings reports from companies such as Humana Inc. and Oshkosh Corp. It jumped 6.9 percent in July, the biggest monthly advance since July 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened 191.94, or 1.8 percent, to 10,657.88. The MSCI World Index, a gauge of equities in 24 developed nations, rose 2.3 percent to 1,150.79, the highest level since May 13. European stocks climbed to a three-month high on gains among banks and basic resource producers.

“Equities did well in July and profits are generally OK, so people are feeling bullish across the board,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Snaps Five Days of Declines After Tumbling Below $70 a Barrel

Crude oil rose, snapping five days of declines, as some investors took the view a drop below $70 a barrel made the commodity attractive to buy. Oil pared yesterday’s 2.1 percent drop as the euro’s rebound from a four year low bolstered optimism the shared European currency will weather the region’s debt crisis. A U.S. Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show that refinery operating rates increased and gasoline inventories dropped, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“We’ve come from having oil at $87 a barrel to around $70 per barrel,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “Those who have already factored in a weak outlook for the euro zone, or don’t think that there’s the risk of another financial crisis happening, seem to think this is not such a bad time to buy.” Crude oil for June delivery gained as much as 64 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $70.72 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $70.38 at 9:02 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract fell $1.53 to $70.08 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Dec. 14. Prices had tumbled to $69.27 yesterday.

The dollar was at $1.2357 per euro from $1.2395 in New York. The euro weakened before a report forecast German investor confidence fell in May, after rising yesterday. Refineries probably operated at 88.6 percent of capacity last week, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous week, according to the median of analyst responses before the Energy Department report. “Refinery operations have been reasonably good,” National Australia Bank’s Westmore said.

Gasoline supplies declined 1 million barrels from 222.1 million the prior week, according to the Bloomberg survey. U.S. crude oil stockpiles probably increased by 625,000 barrels, the 15th time in 16 weeks as imports climbed. Brent crude oil for July delivery increased as much as 80 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $75.90 a barrel, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, and was at $75.71 at 8:31 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract slipped $2.83, or 3.6 percent, to $75.10.

Reporter Ben Sharples can be contacted at bsharples@bloomberg.net

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Crude Oil Rises a Fifth Day on Signs Global Fuel Demand to Recover

Crude oil rose for a fifth day on speculation demand will increase as the world economy recovers from recession. Oil traded above $85 a barrel as a Conference Board report tomorrow in the U.S., the world’s largest energy user, will probably show consumer confidence climbed to a three month high. Asian stock markets rose by the most in five weeks on expectations of higher earnings at Toyota Motor Corp. in Japan.

“People are becoming more bullish on oil demand growth,” said Serene Lim, an energy commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. “The more positive world economic data, especially in the U.S. data, is bringing about more optimism.” Crude oil for June delivery rose as much as 44 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $85.56 a barrel in after hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $85.36 at 1:39 p.m. in Singapore.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.5 percent to 127.24 as of 12:40 p.m. in Tokyo, with more than seven times as many stocks advancing as declining. Oil climbed 1.7 percent to $85.12 on April 23, the highest settlement since April 15, after government reports showed that U.S. sales of new homes surged in March and orders for non transport durable goods climbed. Commodities had rallied as the dollar fell against the euro for the first time in seven days.

A Commerce Department report on April 23 showed that sales of new U.S. homes increased 27 percent in March, the most in 47 years. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years, excluding cars and aircraft, climbed 2.8 percent.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Trades Little Changed Near $86 on Stronger Dollar, Growth in China

Crude oil fluctuated around $86 a barrel as economic growth in China accelerated and a stronger dollar dampened the investment appeal of commodities. Oil traded between $85.32 and $86.27 today as the economy in China, the second largest oil user, expanded by 11.9 percent in the first quarter. The dollar snapped a five day losing streak against the euro, and U.S. oil supplies fell for the first time in 11 weeks in a government report yesterday.

“The market’s sitting on top of what looks like very impressive data coming out of China,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “You’ve got the dollar pretty strong this morning, yet oil prices are not getting clobbered, which is not something we would have seen three or four months ago.” Crude oil for May delivery rose 15 cents to $85.99 a barrel at 9:53 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has climbed 75 percent in the past year.

China’s growth in gross domestic product was higher than the median 11.7 percent estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 24 economists. The U.S. is the largest energy consuming country. Chinese refiners processed 34.56 million metric tons of crude in March, 18 percent more than the same month last year, according to China Mainland Marketing Research Co., which compiles data for the government. That’s the highest level after volume reached 34.6 million tons in December.

“Today’s sentiment still seems bullish with strong economic statistics from China,” said Andy Sommer, an analyst at EGL AG in Dietikon, Switzerland. The dollar advanced 0.7 percent against the euro to $1.3553 from $1.3653 yesterday in New York.

U.S. Supplies
U.S. crude oil inventories dropped 2.2 million barrels, or 0.6 percent, last week to 354 million barrels, the Energy Department reported yesterday. It was the first decline since the week ended Jan. 22. Supplies were 5.1 percent above the five year average, down from 7.1 percent the week before. Manufacturing production in the U.S. accelerated in March as factories spearheaded the recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s.

Output at factories climbed 0.9 percent after a 0.2 gain in February that was revised from a previously estimated decline, Federal Reserve figures showed today. Warmer weather caused utility use to drop by the most in four years, limiting the overall gain in industrial production to 0.1 percent, less than anticipated. The number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly increased last week, indicating the improvement in the labor market will take time to unfold.

U.S. Jobs
Initial jobless applications increased by 24,000 to 484,000 in the week ended April 10, the highest level since Feb. 20, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. A Labor Department spokesman said the rise in claims was due more to administrative factors reflecting volatility around Easter than economic reasons.

Brent crude oil for May, which expires today, rose $1.30, or 1.5 percent, to $87.45 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Earlier, it touched $87.58, the highest level since October 2008. The more actively traded June contract gained 86 cents, or 1 percent, to $87.76 a barrel.

Reporter Margot Habiby can be contacted at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.


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Crude Oil Extends Gains on Unexpected Decline in U.S. Supply, Increase in Demand

Crude Oil climbed for a second day in New York after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected drop in supplies as gasoline demand increased the most in five years.
Oil rose 2.1 percent yesterday as crude stockpiles dropped 2.2 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said, the first decline in 11 weeks. Supplies were forecast to climb 1.3 million barrels, based on analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline use rose 1.3 percent in the four weeks ended April 9, the biggest gain since August 2004.

“The draw in crude was unexpected by the market and is a bit of a release because we have had so many weeks of builds, along with stronger imports into the U.S.,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “Demand for gasoline was also up.” Crude oil for May delivery gained as much as 37 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $86.21 a barrel and was at $86.12 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:25 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract gained $1.79 to settle at $85.84, ending a five day decline.

U.S. gasoline consumption climbed 119,000 barrels in the four weeks ended April 9 to 9.14 million barrels a day, the Energy Department said. That’s the highest level since October. The dollar traded at $1.3661 per euro from $1.3653 yesterday. A weaker dollar makes commodities more attractive as an alternative investment.
....Read the entire article.


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Phil Flynn: Big Build Bananza!

Maybe the oil bulls can take some comfort in the fact that oil was unable to close below $80 despite the fact that the euro hit a ten month low and the stock market actually closed lower. (It can do that you know.) Oil prices shook off a mighty crude oil inventory build according to the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency. The EIA reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by gigantic 7.3 million barrels from the previous week.

The build was on the back of strong imports which averaged 9.4 million barrels per day which was up a cool 969,000 barrels from last week. Yet draw downs in products kept the oil somewhat supported. The EIA reported a fall of 2.7 million barrels in gasoline supply and a 2.4 million barrel drop in distillates. The drop was inspired in part by strong gasoline demand. The EIA says that gasoline demand rose 2.7%, or 238,000 b/d, to 9.087 million barrels a day which according to David Bird at Dow Jones was the highest weekly level since November 20.

Still year over year demand was down 13,000 barrels per day for the corresponding week a year ago. Bird says that the gain in gasoline led a 504,000 barrel per day, or 2.7%, rise in total oil demand for the week, to 19.336 million barrels per duty which was a two week high.Increasing gas demand usually is a sign that things for consumers are getting a little better and we may see that optimism grow in gas demand numbers first.

Over the last few weeks I have scoffed at strong gas demand numbers but the trend may have to be now taken more seriously. Perhaps the rally in the stock market has been more reflective of an improving backdrop for the economy than we have expected. Assuming we avoid a double dip maybe we can see a better than expected summer driving season. Still that does not mean that retail gas prices will go straight up. With gas production rising we should be close to the seasonal top.

Still for oil the dollar remains the key. Yesterday the flight to the dollar helped sink commodities as Portugal’s debt rating was downgraded. The EU members meet today and tomorrow and the outcome of this meeting may be the catalyst for the next big move in commodities. We are still buying breaks and selling rallies at what we project will be the high or low for that particular day. Long term position traders, both bulls and bears, will have their days but until we break out of the larger range there will be mounting frustration. Iron condors may be another way to play a market that is locked in a range. Long term players are just in a rut.

Catch Phil daily on the Fox Business Network. And for buy and sell points across the commodity spectrum, just pick up the phone and call Phil at 800-935-6487.


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Oil Falls First Day in Five on Stronger Dollar, Forecast for Supply Gain

Crude oil fell in New York for the first day in five as the dollar extended gains against the euro and analysts forecast an increase in U.S. stockpiles, signaling weak demand in the biggest energy consuming nation. Oil slipped below $75 a barrel after the dollar strengthened on speculation the European Union will fail to take sufficient measures to help Greece tackle its fiscal deficit, damping the investment appeal of commodities. A weekly Energy Department report today may show crude and gasoline supplies increased last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“The market is hanging on its edge, waiting for the Department of Energy numbers,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “Prices could still come under pressure because there is still that inventory rise overhang in the market.” Crude oil for March delivery fell as much as 53 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $74.75 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $74.82 at 12:52 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose 1 percent to settle at $75.28. Futures have gained 5.1 percent this week, poised for the first weekly gain in five.

The 16 nation euro dropped to near a one week low against the dollar after the European Union stopped short of offering concrete steps to help Greece. The U.S. currency traded at $1.3665 per euro at 12:28 p.m. in Singapore from $1.3693 yesterday in New York.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Rises After Dollar Weakens, Report Shows Gain in Consumer Spending

Crude oil rose after the dollar dropped against the euro and U.S. manufacturing increased at the fastest pace since August 2004, signaling that fuel use in the world’s biggest energy consuming country will gain.

Oil climbed as much as 1.8 percent as the weak dollar bolstered the appeal of commodities. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index advanced to 58.4, higher than anticipated, from December’s 54.9, figures from the Tempe, Arizona-based group showed. A separate report showed that European manufacturing gained last month.

“The first factor at work is the weaker dollar,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The ISM number was very strong. The strength isn’t just here, European manufacturing is also expanding.”

Crude oil for March delivery rose 95 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $73.84 a barrel at 11:31 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures fell to $72.89 on Jan. 29, the lowest settlement since Dec. 21.

The greenback slipped 0.4 percent versus the euro to $1.3911, from $1.3863 on Jan. 29.

The U.S. manufacturing figure exceeded economists’ median forecast of 55.5, according to 67 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Readings higher than 50 signal an expansion. Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of the economy.

European manufacturing also accelerated more than estimated in January. An index of manufacturing in the 16-nation euro region increased to 52.4 from 51.6 in December, London-based Markit Economics said today.....Read the entire article.

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