This Might be our Most Important Post EVER!

This has been a big week around here. Our trading partner John Carter has been sharing some game changing videos that have culminated into his wildly popular webinars, "Being the Architect of the Big Trade".

If you haven't seen the videos or the webinar please do that asap after finishing reading this entire article.

Here is John's video from two weeks ago.

And Here is the Replay of John's Webinar, which will only be up until midnight Friday evening February 28th

John sent us this message this morning and I want you to read it, because it could be our most important post ever.

John Carter here......

This may be the most important email I’ve ever sent to you. (Print Now)

In 1984 I read a book about Arnold Schwarzenegger and ever since then he has been one of my idols. Arnold’s dream was to come to America to become rich and famous. He had no idea how he would do this.

Arnold said, “I was a 15 year old farm kid growing up in Austria when I was first inspired by a bodybuilding magazine with a picture of Reg Park on the cover from one of his Hercules movies. My life was never the same. Reg Park became my idol and I could not have picked a better hero to inspire me. Reg went from bodybuilding to the movies. He became a smart and successful businessman, and he was the first person who gave me a glimpse of what my life could someday become if I dreamed big and worked hard.”

The biggest thing he said that stuck with me is, “I read this magazine and there was the whole plan laid out. I had my blueprint to accomplish my dreams.”

When I was 18 and decided that I wanted to become a trader I knew I only needed to find a blueprint for success. Since then I’ve developed and implemented several blueprints for successful trading.

My most important blueprint is for building wealth

Every trader would love to start with a million dollar trading account, but this rarely happens. Today I trade a few seven figure accounts, but 25 years ago I funded my first account with $1,000 (equivalent to about $5,000 today). What I needed and I what I discovered was a blueprint for building wealth.

LAST CHANCE LINK

Did you know most trading strategies taught out there are designed for accounts larger than $25,000 yet they are taught to traders with a $5,000 account as if they will have the same edge as someone with a larger account? This is simply not true.

Most traders start with under $25,000 in their account and those accounts need to utilize specific strategies to build wealth.

How does a trader go about building wealth?

1) You have to start with a goal. I think a reasonable goal with the strategies I’m going to share is to double an account and do it in a year.

2) You need to develop the right money management and trading mindset

3) You have to control your risk through appropriate position sizing

4) You need to have a written trading plan with the strategies you’re going to use and when

5) You need to know where your targets are so you don’t leave money on the table

LAST CHANCE LINK

For the first (and last) time I’m going to share my exact blueprint for wealth building.

The blueprint will include:

1) Step by step, A and B happens you do C blueprint. There will be nothing left to interpretation.

2) How to manage your risk – when to go big, and when not to “piss away your chips.”

3) How to structure your wealth building trades so that even when they don’t work out you still make money

4) The 3 “how to crush it” strategies that were most profitable in 2013

5) Identify the exact levels when a stock will “rip the market makers heads off”

And much more…

My goal with this course is to leave with you the exact blueprint for building wealth like Reg Park gave to Arnold.

Here is what you'll get when you join the Ultimate Options Trading Blueprint and 3 day mentorship:

1) Access to the Saturday course and 3 full days of live trading, analysis, and follow up sessions

2) You Get to Keep Everything - All audio and video will be recorded and you will get the on demand links and DVD. You will be able to download all my notes, the action plan, and PDFs I share with you during the course.

3) Fast Answers to Your Relevant Questions Answered by Henry, Darrell, Brian, Jeff, and myself throughout the course.

4) Homework: Special Bonus - Beginners Guide to Option on demand link

5) Homework: Options 101 Class on demand link

6) How to prepare your mind for the class and success

LAST CHANCE LINK

Here are the answers to some of the biggest questions we've been getting:

Q: I’m new to options should I go to this class?

A: Every journey starts with a single step. As part of the class we have included a few homework assignments that will quickly get you up to speed. I can teach anyone options in 1 hour and that exactly what I do in your options 101 homework assignment.

Q: When is this class?

A: The strategies class will be held Saturday March 1st from 2:00PM – 6:00PM New York time or 1-5 central. The 3 day live trading mentorship is Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday March 4th, 6th, and 7th during market hours with a lunch break midday.

Q: Will the course be RECORDED?

A: YES. Every single second of the 4 day course will be recorded. You will have online access to the recording PLUS you will get a DVD of the entire course in the mail.

Q: I am in the live trading room and I’ve taken most of your other courses will I learn anything new in this course?

A: Yes this course will be chock full of brand-spanking-new, never-before-revealed strategies and setups. If you’re in the live trading room and participated in every course there may be a few things in the class that will overlap, for example, you will already know what a squeeze is. However, the overwhelming majority of this course is material I have never presented on before.

Q: Do I need to be there live to get the most out of the course?

A: No, the course will be recorded and you will get all the information regardless if you attend live or not. The strategies I will teach can be universally applied at any time. As I go through live trading examples, although you will not be able to follow along live, I will be describing in detail what I am looking for in these live trades so when you watch the recording you will have the exact blue print I used determine which trades I got into and why.

Q: What if I have a full time job and I can’t trade intraday?

A: All of the strategies will work on any time frame. This means if you can only do end of day trading you can use daily and weekly charts. I find that people who are able to watch the markets all day end up over trading which is a death sentence for your trading account.

Q: Is there a Members Discount?

A: For a limited time we are making this class available for everyone at the member price because this class is so crucial. After the class is over the price will be raised for non-members.

LAST CHANCE LINK

I believe this will be the best course I've ever done and I’m really excited about presenting this material to you and hearing about your success.

Good Trading,

John

Visit John Carters "Simpler Options and Trading"

ONG: Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Wednesday Jan. 4th

The retreat from 101.77 was relatively brief and crude oil got strong support from 4 hours 55 EMA. Subsequent rally sent crude oil back to 103.18 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 103.37 resistance. Break there will confirm that rise from 74.95 has resumed and should target 114.83 resistance next. On the downside, below 98.30 minor support will dampen this immediate bullish view and flip bias back to the downside to extend the consolidation from 103.37 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 114.83 has finished at 74.95 already. The structure suggests it's merely a correction or part of a consolidation pattern. Hence, rise from 33.2 is not completed yet. As long as 89.16/17 support holds, we'd favor a break of 114.83 resistance to resume the rally from 33.2. However, break of 89.16/17 will indicate that rebound from 74.95 has completed and whole fall from 114.83 is possibly resuming for another low below 74.95.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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Set The Emotion Aside, Here is a Technicians View of VIX, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the SP 500

So did Crude Oil Trader contributor J.W. Jones get whacked by the sell off.......

The following article is an update on the current technical position of the marketplace as I see it. Obviously the price action this week has been ugly as the situation in Europe has become front and center in the minds of traders and market prognosticators. The information below is an adaptation of what members of my service at Options Trading Signals.com received earlier today.

The S&P 500 sold off sharply earlier this morning and has since bounced higher. Price is drifting lower as I write this but on the shorter term time frame we may see a short / intermediate term bottom traced out during intraday trade today. It would make sense that prices would rebound after being so extremely oversold.

The 10 minute chart of the S&P 500 E-Mini futures chart below illustrates the intraday price action:

If the S&P 500 does carve out an intraday bottom, the daily chart of the S&P 500 below illustrates the key price levels that will come into play on a potential reflex rally:

The VIX is trading lower after popping higher this morning. The data coming out tomorrow and Friday may give traders an opportunity to get involved with a short side try on the VIX. However, I am going to wait patiently for the setup to present itself. Clearly any trade would be a shorter term type of trade as the VIX can behave wildly.

The usual suspects (IYT, XLF, EEM, IWM) are all trading to the downside again today. The financials (XLF) are showing relative weakness at this point in time. The rest of the usual suspects are all rolling over quite similarly to the S&P 500.

The daily chart of the XLF is shown below:

The U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading lower today and continue to base right at a key support level. If price breaks down we could see risk assets like the S&P 500 and oil push higher. For right now, the Dollar is trading well above key support.

Gold futures sold off sharply this morning but have since regained most of the intraday losses and are trading strongly to the upside from Tuesday’s close. Gold is starting to get a bit stretched to the upside and I am stalking a potential short trade on gold for the service. It would only be a short term trade, but I think a pullback is likely.

Silver futures have broken out and intraday price action has pushed silver above recent resistance levels. I’m not going to chase silver here as it could be the beginning of a failed breakout. However, if prices continue higher in coming days or price consolidates at this breakout level I will become interested in taking silver long.

For now, the precious metals are intriguing, but I like the price action in silver better than gold as we have more crisply defined risk levels as gold has runaway to all time highs.

The silver futures daily chart illustrates the key levels in silver:

Oil futures are trading sharply lower today and are coming into a key support level going back to late June. If those prices do not hold up, we could see oil trade down below the key $90/barrel price level. At this point in time, I am not interested in trading oil, but if price works down into the $85/barrel price level I will be interested in oil as a longer term trade for the service.

Lastly, Treasuries are really pushing higher recently. I am patiently stalking a long term entry on TBT for the service similar to the oil trade discussed above. For right now, I’m going to remain in cash and see how price action plays out. Members of my service have been sitting in cash for the past few weeks and we have sidestepped this entire selloff. While I’m sitting in cash for now, I have a growing list of names I am stalking for trades in the future.

Get J.W.'s calls directly to your inbox by signing up at Options Trading Signals.com 

Important Article on Long Term Trends in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil....and Much More!

If you are trading with multiple time frames it's a good idea to be open minded and every now and then look at some different time frames to be sure you have a solid understanding for the longer term trends in play. I will admit that it’s easy to get caught up in trading the shorter time frames like the 1, 10, and 60 minute charts especially when there are large intraday movements. But every night you must reset your thinking by looking at the bigger picture.

Here are the weekly and daily charts which I think provide a big picture view of things.....Read "Important Article on Long Term Trends in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil"


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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Dec. 5th

Crude oil's rise from 80.06 accelerated to as high as 89.49 last week and the break of 88.63 indicates that whole rally from 64.23 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for next near term target of 61.8% projection of 70.76 to 88.63 from 80.06 at 91.10. On the downside, below 87.14 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the break of 88.63 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress and has resumed. Such rally is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27 and should target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 103.70. On the downside, break of 80.06 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal and break of 64.23 is needed to confirm. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Current development suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But we'll then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Commentary For Thursday Morning Dec. 2nd

Crude oil was slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends the rally off last week's low, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.82 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 87.10
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10

Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 85.78

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.95
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.82

Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If January renews this week's decline, November's low crossing at 3.853 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.312 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.312
Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 4.515

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday morning is 4.252

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.126
Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853


Gold was higher overnight as it continues to rebound off the mid-November low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If December extends the rebound off the mid-November low, November's high crossing at 1424.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1370.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1396.60
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1424.30

Gold pivot point for Thursday morning is 1,389.90

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1370.40
Second support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1330.20


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Oil N' Gold Focus Reports: Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's recovery was limited at 84.53 last week and the outlook remains basically unchanged. Price actions from 80.06 is still being treated as correction to fall from 88.63 only. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. On the downside, below 80.06 will indicate that fall from 88.63 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 70.76 to 88.63 at 77.59 and below. However, note that break of 84.53 resistance dampen this view and argue that fall from 88.63 might be completed already. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen to retest 88.63 high instead.

In the bigger picture, the steeper than expected fall from 88.63 is mixing up the outlook and argue that rise from 64.23 is possibly finished with three waves up to 88.63. In other words, it could be the second wave of consolidation from 87.17 and the third wave might have just started. We'll now slightly favor more decline as long as 88.63 resistance holds. Nevertheless, medium term rise from 33.2 is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. As long as 64.23 support holds, medium term rise from 33.2 is still in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly higher before completion.

In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Current development suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But we'll then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas rose further to as high as 4.411 last week and closed strongly. Initial bias remains on the upside for further rally this week. Current rise from 3.255 should now be targeting next key resistance at 5.194. On the downside, below 4.115 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But after all, we'd still favor another rise as long as 3.71 support holds, even in case of deep retreat.

In the bigger picture, break of the falling trend line from 6.108 add some credence to the case that decline from there is completed with three waves down to 3.22 already. That is, it's merely a correction to rebound from 2.409 and such medium term rally is possibly resuming. Break of 5.194 resistance will solidify this case and target another high above 6.108 to 100% projection of 2.409 to 6.108 from 3.255 at 6.954 next. On the downside, break of 3.71 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Comex Gold (GC)

Gold's recovery from 1329 was limited at 1382.9 and reversed. The structure of such recovery suggests that it's merely a correction to fall from 1424.3. Initial bias remains cautiously on the downside this week for 1315.8/1329 support zone. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder top reversal pattern and should turn outlook bearish for deeper fall. On the other hand, strong rebound from 1315.8/1329 will indicate that gold is merely in sideway consolidation and another high would still be seen before topping.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1155.6 is treated as the fifth wave of the five wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be fifth wave of the rally from 681 (2008 low). There is no confirmation of topping yet. However, note that 1424.3 record high was close to two important projection target, 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 and 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462. Reversal should be imminent. Break of mentioned 1315.8/1329 will signal that 1424.3 is an important top and gold should have started a sizeable medium term correction that should dip back into 1044.5/1227.5 support zone at least.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253. 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 is almost met and a sizeable correction should be around the corner. Though, even in case of deep fall, 55 months EMA (now at 931 level) should present strong support to contain downside and bring another up trend.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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ONG Focus: Crude Oil and Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Nov. 26th

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Crude oil jumped to as high as 84.53 but was limited by mentioned 85.42 resistance and weakens again. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral. As noted before, decline from 88.63 is still in favor to continue with 84.52 resistance intact. Break of 80.06 will target 61.8% retracement of 70.76 to 88.63 at 77.59 and below. Though, above 84.53 will now flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 88.63 high.

In the bigger picture, the steeper than expected fall from 88.63 is mixing up the outlook and argue that rise from 64.23 is possibly finished with three waves up to 88.63. In other words, it could be the second wave of consolidation from 87.17 and the third wave might have just started. We'll now slightly favor more decline as long as 88.63 resistance holds. Nevertheless, medium term rise from 33.2 is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. As long as 64.23 support holds, medium term rise from 33.2 is still in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly higher before completion.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour and Daily Charts

Gold Daily Technical Outlook

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, Gold's recovery from 1329 should have completed at 1382.9 already. Intraday bias is now cautiously on the downside for 1315.8/1329 support zone. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder top reversal pattern and should turn outlook bearish for deeper fall. On the other hand, strong rebound from 1315.8/1329 will indicate that gold is merely in sideway consolidation and another would still be seen before topping.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1155.6 is treated as the fifth wave of the five wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be fifth wave of the rally from 681 (2008 low). Such rally might still continue towards 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 before completion. Though, we're aware of long term projection target of 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 and we'd anticipate strong resistance from there to bring medium term correction finally. On the downside, however, break of 1315.8 support will be an early alert of medium term reversal and will turn focus back to 1155.6 support for confirmation.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour and Daily Charts


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Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Nov. 21st

Natural gas's strong rebound form 3.71 retained the bullish case. That is, it should have bottomed at 3.255 already. Break of 4.249 resistance will indicate that such rebound has resumed and should target falling trend line resistance (now at 4.4 level). On downside, however, break of 3.71 will now confirm that rebound from 3.255 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 3.255 low.

In the bigger picture, current development raises the possibility that fall from 6.108 has indeed finished with three waves down to 3.255. That is, it's merely a correction to rebound from 2.409. There is no confirmation of reversal yet and key focus will be on mentioned trend line resistance from 6.108, now at around 4.4 level. Sustained break there will likely pave the way the another high above 6.108 in medium term. Though, a break below 3.255 will turn focus back to 2.409 low instead.

In the longer term picture, question remains on whether 2.409 is the long term bottom already. Downside momentum since 6.108 is so far not too convincing and it looks like 2.409 won't be violated even in case of another fall. On the other hand, natural gas is still limited well below 55 weeks EMA and 55 months EMA and there is no confirmation of reversal yet. We'll stay neutral before a break of 5.194 resistance.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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Oil N' Gold: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Nov. 20th

Crude oil dropped to as low as 80.06 last week before forming a temporary low there and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some consolidations would be seen first. However, note that another fall remains in favor as long as 84.52 minor resistance holds. Below 80.06 will target 61.8% retracement of 70.76 to 88.63 at 77.59 and below. Though, above 84.52 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 88.63 high.

In the bigger picture, the steeper than expected fall from 88.63 is mixing up the outlook and argue that rise from 64.23 is possibly finished with three waves up to 88.63. In other words, it could be the second wave of consolidation from 87.17 and the third wave might have just started. We'll now slightly favor more decline as long as 88.63 resistance holds. Nevertheless, medium term rise from 33.2 is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. As long as 64.23 support holds, medium term rise from 33.2 is still in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly higher before completion.

In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Current development suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But we'll then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, daily, Weekly, Monthly and Charts


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Narrow Trading Continues Ahead of US Retail Sales

Commodities continue to in a consolidative manner in European session after Friday's selloff as the market awaits the next step the Chinese government walks in curbing inflation. Investors also hold breath as Ireland will discuss with EU officials on its financial problems in Brussels tomorrow. The front-month contract for WTI crude oil price hovers around 85 while fuel prices also grind higher. Gold changes little, trading below 1380 in both Asian and European session. PGMs extend weakness with platinum and palladium plunging below 1680 and 670 respectively.

Worries about Chinese tightening have weighed on oil and base metal prices as the government's measures, such as rate hike and raise in RRR, limit investments and hence, demand for these commodities. Indeed, China's impacts extend to precious metals. Recall that when the People's Bank of China raised near term interest rates last month (October 19), gold price slumped with the benchmark COMEX contract falling from 1371.7 to 1328 on that day. The impacts on PGMs will be as big as base metals as China is the world's largest auto producer and consumer.

According to Bombay Bullion Association, India’s gold imports jumped +65% y/y in October as driven by Diwali. India’s demand for other commodities such as oil and agricultural products should also surge in coming years. EIA’s Short-term Energy Report forecast annual growth in oil demand in India will be +7.95% in 2010 and +4.21% in 2011. The pace will exceed that of China (2010:+4.26%; 2011: 0.00%) although the absolute amount is still small.

Posted courtesy of Oil N Gold.Com


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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Nov. 13th

Crude oil edged higher to 88.63 last week but formed a short term top there and pulled back. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for deeper decline to correct whole rise from 70.76. Nevertheless, strong support should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 70.76 to 88.63 at 81.80 and bring another rise. Whole rally from 64.23 is still expected to continue to 90 psychological level and above.

In the bigger picture, rise whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress. Such rise is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. Further rise could still be be seen towards 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 103.70. However, break of 70.76 support will be the first warning that crude oil has topped out. Further break of 64.23 support will confirm and turn outlook bearish to start another medium term decline.

In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Current development suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But we'll then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts




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Crude Oil Declines From Two Year High After Dollar Advances Against Euro

Crude oil retreated from its highest level in two years as the dollar strengthened against the euro, curbing crude’s appeal as an alternative investment. Oil fluctuated as the dollar advanced for a second day against the European single currency. Hedge funds increased bullish bets on oil to the highest level since at least June 2006, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed last week. “The dollar is stronger so the oil market may be taking its cue from that,” said Tom Bentz, a broker with BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “The CFTC data from Friday shows that there are still plenty of bulls out there. We could turn at any moment.”

Crude for December delivery was unchanged from Nov. 5 at $86.85 a barrel at 12:52 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has gained 12 percent in the past year. Prices jumped 6.7 percent last week, the most since February, as the Labor Department said U.S. payrolls climbed by 151,000 workers in October following a revised 41,000 drop the prior month. New York oil futures reached $87.49 a barrel earlier today, the highest price since Oct. 9, 2008, on an intraday basis. Brent crude for December settlement rose 20 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $88.31 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

The world will “have to live with current oil prices,” Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said today in Doha. The market isn’t oversupplied with oil, he added. The dollar gained 0.6 percent to $1.3943 per euro from $1.4032 on Nov. 5 in New York. The currency has advanced 1.9 percent since Nov. 4. It rose today amid concern that Ireland will struggle to plug its budget deficit......Read the entire article.


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Oil N' Gold: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil attempted to draw support from 4 hours 55 EMA last week but lacked decisive strength to resume recent rally. Upside was limited below 84.43 resistance as crude oil weakened again towards the end of the week. Intraday bias remains neutral. Note that there is no confirmation of reversal yet. But even in case of another rise, we'll continue to focus on reversal signal inside resistance zone of 82.97/87.15. On the downside, break of 78.04 support will indicate that rise from 70.76 is over and turn focus back to this support level.

In the bigger picture, after all, we're still favoring the case that medium term rally from 33.2 is already completed at 87.15. Recovery from 64.23 is treated as a correction and should be near to completion, if not finished. Even in case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen as crude oil enters into resistance zone of 82.97/87.15 and bring reversal. We're still expecting another fall to 60 psychological level (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18). However, decisive break of 87.15 will put focus on long term fibo level at 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Price actions from 147.27 are treated as consolidation in the larger up trend and with 90.24 fibo resistance intact, a test of 33.2 eventually is in favor. Though, decisive break of 90.24 will argue that crude oil will bring stronger rally to above 100 psychological level as a relatively powerful second wave of the consolidation continues.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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Commodity Corner: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gasoline Down for the Week

A stronger dollar, spurred by indications that the Federal Reserve plans to buy more U.S. government debt, placed downward pressure on crude oil Friday. Oil for November delivery fell $1.44 to settle at $81.25 per barrel. The euro, meanwhile, was down 0.8% against the dollar; a weaker dollar typically makes oil, priced in dollars, more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

Boosting the greenback were comments Friday from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said Friday that the Fed was prepared to take additional measures to combat high unemployment and the threat of deflation. Under this "quantitative easing" process, the Fed would try to stimulate the economy by printing more money to buy debt. By increasing the money supply, the central bank hopes the measures would make borrowing cheaper for consumers and thus encourage Americans to spend more. Crude oil traded from $81.22 to $83.33 Friday, and it is down 1.2% for the week.

The November natural gas futures price, already buffeted in recent weeks by mild weather and abundant inventories, settled at $3.535 per thousand cubic feet Friday. The intraday trading range for gas was $3.55 to $3.68 Friday, and the commodity's settlement price fell 1.8% during the week. The front month price for gasoline declined four cents Friday to settle at $2.10 a gallon. November gasoline traded from $2.11 to $2.15, and it is down 3.2% for the week.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning Oct. 13th

Crude oil was higher overnight and appears poised to renew the rally off August's low. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.93 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off last week's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 84.09
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 81.63

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.99
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.93


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Oct. 12th

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.64 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off last week's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 84.09
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 82.51

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.47
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.64


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Commodity Corner: Crude Oil, Gasoline Settle Higher

A stronger dollar contributed to lower November crude oil futures Monday. Oil settled at $82.21 a barrel, a 45 cent drop from Friday, as the euro declined 0.8% during Monday's trading. Because oil is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar makes the commodity more expensive and thus less attractive to investors. Oil peaked at $83.50 and bottomed out at $82.01.

Crude oil might have lost more ground had gasoline not rallied for the second consecutive trading day. Gasoline, which settled two cents higher to end the day at $2.17 a gallon, has benefited from a recent prediction by the U.S. Department of Agriculture that this year's corn harvest will bring smaller yield. Consequently, prices for the corn based gasoline additive ethanol are expected to rise. Gasoline for November delivery traded within a range from $2.14 to $2.17.

November natural gas continued to follow a downward course Monday, settling a nickel lower at $3.60 per thousand cubic feet. The front month natural gas price fluctuated between $2.14 and $2.17.

Courtesy of  Rigzone.Com


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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Monday Evening Oct. 11th

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed again today in quieter holiday trading. The stock index bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage as uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. However, the uptrends have turned into more sideways price action recently, which is likely to continue in the near term. Stock index bulls have been very pleased with price action so far this autumn a time which is normally not favorable to market bulls.

Crude oil closed down $0.61 at $82.05 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today on profit taking from recent gains. Prices are still in a six week old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $86.00 a barrel.

Natural gas closed down 4.9 cents at $3.602 today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh contract low close. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00.

Gold futures closed up $9.30 at $1,354.60 today. Prices today closed near the session high and closed at a fresh contract and all time record high close. Bargain hunters stepped in to buy some early session weakness and prices pushed higher. The gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and have regained upside momentum the past two trading sessions. Prices are in a 2 1/2 month old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 19 points at 77.75 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh nine month low. Tepid short covering in a bear market was featured. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand.


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Oil N' Gold: Crude Oil Weekly Technical For Saturday

Crude oil rose further to as high as 84.32 last week, but formed a temporary top ahead of 161.8% projection of 70.76 to 78.04 from 72.75 at 84.53 and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading would be seen below 84.43 first. At this point, there is not sign of reversal in crude oil yet and further rise could still be seen. However, we'll continue to focus on reversal signal inside resistance zone of 82.97/87.15. On the downside, break of 78.04 support will indicate that rise from 70.76 is over and turn focus back to this support level.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rally from 70.76 dampened the immediate bearish view and suggests that rise from 64.23 is still in progress. Nevertheless, we're still favoring the case that medium term rally from 33.2 is already completed at 87.15. Hence, strong resistance should be seen as crude oil enters into resistance zone of 82.97/87.15 and bring reversal. We're still expecting another fall to 60 psychological level (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18). However, decisive break of 87.15 will put focus on long term fibo level at 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Price actions from 147.27 are treated as consolidation in the larger up trend and with 90.24 fibo resistance intact, a test of 33.2 eventually is in favor. Though, decisive break of 90.24 will argue that crude oil will bring stronger rally to above 100 psychological level as a relatively powerful second wave of the consolidation continues.

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