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Saturday, October 16, 2010

Oil N' Gold: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil attempted to draw support from 4 hours 55 EMA last week but lacked decisive strength to resume recent rally. Upside was limited below 84.43 resistance as crude oil weakened again towards the end of the week. Intraday bias remains neutral. Note that there is no confirmation of reversal yet. But even in case of another rise, we'll continue to focus on reversal signal inside resistance zone of 82.97/87.15. On the downside, break of 78.04 support will indicate that rise from 70.76 is over and turn focus back to this support level.

In the bigger picture, after all, we're still favoring the case that medium term rally from 33.2 is already completed at 87.15. Recovery from 64.23 is treated as a correction and should be near to completion, if not finished. Even in case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen as crude oil enters into resistance zone of 82.97/87.15 and bring reversal. We're still expecting another fall to 60 psychological level (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18). However, decisive break of 87.15 will put focus on long term fibo level at 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Price actions from 147.27 are treated as consolidation in the larger up trend and with 90.24 fibo resistance intact, a test of 33.2 eventually is in favor. Though, decisive break of 90.24 will argue that crude oil will bring stronger rally to above 100 psychological level as a relatively powerful second wave of the consolidation continues.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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