Bloomberg Analysis: Crude Oil Faces Resistance at $81.74 a Barrel

Crude oil in New York is facing resistance at $81.74 a barrel, setting the stage for prices to climb to $87 or fall to $78, based on levels using Fibonacci analysis, the Schork Group Inc. said. Intra-day futures prices have straddled the 76.4 percent retracement level of $81.74 for nine of the past 11 trading sessions, Schork Group President Stephen Schork said in a report yesterday. Prices may push to the top of the Fibonacci range at $87.15, the highest price this year, or drop to $78.40, depending on whether the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee decides to buy government securities to boost economic growth.

“This is the textbook definition of sideways trading, What are the markets waiting for?” the report said. “We are waiting for the FOMC meeting and its implication for the dollar before we place our bets.” The FOMC, which makes decisions on money supply and U.S. interest rates, is set to meet on Nov. 2 and Nov. 3. A decision to buy government securities, known as quantitative easing, may cause the dollar to decline against other currencies, increasing the investment appeal of commodities. The $78.40 a barrel level for crude is the 61.8 percent retracement from the $87.15 high for the year.

Futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded at $82.13, up 19 cents, at 3:21 p.m. Singapore time. Prices have risen 3.5 percent this year. The Fibonacci sequence, identified by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century, is used by traders in financial markets to predict points of support and resistance.

Courtesy Bloomberg News

Bloomberg reporter Christian Schmollinger can be reached at christian.s@bloomberg.net

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