Final Stages of the Advance on SP 500....The Wave Pattern

Our trading partner David Banister has been projecting a potential rally pivot at 1552-1576 for many weeks now. The recent drop to 1485 although harrowing, was a normal fibonacci retracement of the last major rally leg to 1531 pivot highs. Banister believes that this 5 wave advance 1343 pivot lows is nearing an end based on mathematics and relationships to prior waves 1-3.

At 1569 the SP 500 would mark a perfect fibonacci relationships to waves 1-3 for this final 5th wave to the upside. In the big picture, we are still working higher off the 1010 pivot lows on the SP 500, and this rally takes 5 full waves to complete. He thinks we are near wave 3 highs, and wave 4 correction would be up next, followed by another thrust to highs if all goes well this year.

That all said, a multi-week correction and consolidation wave 4 pattern is likely once we pivot at 1552-1576. We should expect this correction to retrace anywhere from 80 -100 points on the SP 500, but one week at a time.

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Demand Concerns, European Debt Crisis Continue to Pressure Oil Bulls

Negative statements on future oil demand estimations by OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri and remarks from European finance ministers that they are ruling out the use of stimulus measures to combat the European debt crisis had crude oil trading much lower in Sunday evenings overnight trading session. Stochastics and the RSI remain overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 85.17 would confirm that the corrective rally off August's low has ended while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 76.61 later this fall. If November extends the rally off August's low, the May-July downtrend line crossing near 91.81 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 90.60. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 91.81. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 85.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 83.47. Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 88.47.


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Crude Oil Rises a Second Day on Forecasts of Increased Demand and Dollar's Decline

Oil climbed for a second day in New York after an industry-funded report showed U.S. crude supplies fell and the dollar declined against the euro, increasing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Futures rose as the U.S. currency slipped on speculation the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy further and after the American Petroleum Institute reported that inventories decreased the most since July. Prices surged 1.6 percent yesterday, the most in six days, after the International Energy Agency raised its global demand forecast and as China imported a record volume of the commodity in September.

“The overall feeling is optimistic,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “We still see stimulus being talked about from the Fed, and as a result of that we’re seeing all the commodities climb. It all looks solid for oil to move higher.” The November contract jumped as much as 79 cents, or 1 percent, to $83.80 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $83.73 at 1:00 p.m. Sydney time. Yesterday, it added $1.34 to $83.01, the highest level since Oct. 6. Prices are up 5.5 percent this year.

Crude stockpiles dropped 4.01 million barrels last week to 362.1 million, the American Petroleum Institute said. A U.S. Energy Department report today may show stockpiles climbed 1.45 million barrels last week, according to the median of 18 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey......Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Oct. 12th

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.64 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off last week's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 84.09
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 84.65

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 82.51

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.47
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.64


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning Oct. 1st

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off last week's low, the 87% retracement level of August's decline crossing at 82.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.69 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 81.08
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of August's decline crossing at 82.41

Crude oil pivot for Friday morning is 79.23

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.69
Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58



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Crude Oil Support, Resistance and Pivot Point Numbers For Tuesday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If October extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the decline off August's high crossing at 78.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.48 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.50
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level off August's high crossing at 78.58

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 77.20

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.48
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 72.63



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Crude Oil Stochastics-RSI Oversold, is This The Near Term Bottom For Oil?

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.53 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 70.35 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.26
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.53

Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 72.08

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 70.76
Second support is May's low crossing at 70.35

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Crude Oil Continues it's Slide, Here's Wednesday's Numbers

Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.74 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.94
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.74

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday is 75.80

First support is the overnight low crossing at 74.69
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Morning

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight and is consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 74.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.72
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 75.35

First support is Monday's low crossing at 74.86
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.70

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.76 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If September renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.97 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 79.69
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.97

Crude oil's pivot point for Friday morning is 77.90

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.70

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.945 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.571 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.876
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.945

Natural gas pivot point for Friday morning is 4.792

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.639
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.571

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Overbought Conditions in Crude Oil Giving Bears the Advantage....Here's Wednesday's Numbers

Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.45 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.97 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 79.69
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.97

Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday morning is 77.99

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 76.79
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.45

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 4.669 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rally into early August. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.452 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 4.669
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.945

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday morning is 4.630

First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.452
Second support is this month's low crossing at 4.290

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market Commentary For Monday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.27 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.27
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil's pivot point for Monday is 75.86

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 71.09
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93

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Natural gas was lower overnight and is poised to extend last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.786 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.588
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.786

Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 4.399

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.339
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market Commentary For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible.

If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.98 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.19
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46

Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday is 76.24

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.19
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.98

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Natural gas was slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.544 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.196
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429

Naturual gas pivot point for Wednesday is 5.136

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.868
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.544

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Crude Oil Poised to Extend Last Week's Rally

Crude oil was higher overnight and is poised to extend last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.72 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and renew the rally off May's low. If July renews the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 65.66 is the next downside target.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 76.30
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46

Crude oil's pivot point for Monday morning is 74.23

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.61
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 69.51


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