SP 500 Elliott Wave Forecast Unfolding As We Projected, What Is Next?

Back on January 15^th we wrote an article and also a elliott wave forecast for both the public and our subscribers showing a likely top at a maximum of 1868 on the SP 500.  We said that Elliott Wave Major 3 of Primary Wave 3 would top no higher than that level.  In fact, we can go back to September 4^th 2013 and we projected a Major 3 high as 1822-1829.  Turns out we were only about 1% off 4 months in advance of projecting that high, and once again we are on track here with Major 4 commencing from Major 3 highs.

Below is the Major 3 chart we sent out on September 12^th in public articles and private reports



We simply use Fibonacci analysis of wave patterns which are based on human behavioural tendencies that go back centuries. Elliott Wave Theory is often hard to put into practice, so sometimes it gets a bad name.  However, a bad steak at a restaurant doesn’t mean you never have steak again right? The practitioner must hone his or her skills over time and work to improve accuracy.

Our view is pretty simple in that the Major wave 3 was 583 points going from 1267 to 1850, the double top.
Below is the chart we did on January 15^th in advance of this top:



We now know in hindsight that we topped out at 1850.  So what we want to do is simply take the 583 point rally of 1267 to 1850 (major 2 lows to Major 3 highs) and compute a retracement.  We use 23.6%, 31.2%, and 38% Fibonacci figures to come up with estimates. Those come in at 1713 on the shallow end of a correction (wave 4) and 1628 on the lower end.  (See chart below)



Now, assuming we are on track… once this Major 3 completes we will see a Major wave 5 of Primary wave 3 taking us to all-time highs. This will then complete Primary wave 3 of this 5 primary wave bull cycle and then larger Primary wave 4 corrections will ensue from those highs.  We will know we are wrong in our degrees of wave counts if we pierce the 1628 level on the downside. That would indicate Primary 3 topped out 1850 and we are in Primary 4, which is not our current view.

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Gold and Silver Ready To Rumble Higher?

Let's check in with our trading partner David A Banister, does he think gold and silver is ready to rumble higher?

We have been writing about the bottoming process of the Gold Bear Cycle (Elliott Wave Theory) since December 4th 2013, and our most recent article on December 26th reiterated that the best time to accumulate the Gold/Silver stocks was in the December and January window. Specifically this is what we wrote:

“These types of indicators are coming to a pivot point where Gold is testing the summer 1181 lows…at the same time, we see bottoming 5th wave patterns combining with public sentiment, bullish percent indexes, and 5 year lows in Gold stocks. This is how bottom in Bear cycles form and you are witnessing the makings of a huge bottom between now and early February 2014 if we are right.

The time to buy Gold and Gold stocks is now during the next 4-5 weeks just as we were recommending stocks in late February 2009 with public articles that nobody paid attention to. This is the time to start accumulating quality gold miner and also the precious metals themselves as the bear cycle winds down and the spring comes back to Gold and Silver in 2014.”

Since that article a few of our favorite stocks rallied 40-50% in just 3 weeks or so from the December timeframe of our article. A recent pullback is pretty normal as we set up for Gold to take out the 1271 spot pricing area and run to the mid 1300’s over the next several weeks. By that time, you will be kicking yourself for not being long either the metals themselves or the higher beta stock plays.

A few suggestions that we have already written about we will reiterate here again. Aggressive investors can look at UGLD ETF, which is a 3x long Gold product that will give you upside leverage as Gold moves into elliott wave 3 up. Other more aggressive plays we already recommend a lot lower include GLDX, JNUG, NUGT and others. Picking individual stocks can be even better and we have recommended a few to our subscribers that are already doing very well.

What will trigger this next rally up is sentiment shifts to favor Gold and Silver over currency alternatives. The precious metals move on sentiment, much more so than interest rates or GDP reports or anything else in our opinion. Sentiment remains neutral to bearish as evidenced by the larger brokerage houses running around in January telling everyone to sell Gold, so we see that as a buy signal on top of our other indicators.

We expect the mid 1500’s by sometime this summer, but by then your opportunity will be long in the rear view mirror. Just click here to join us for frequent updates at from David Banister.

Time to Buy Out of Favor ETF’s for 2014?

From our trading partner David A. Banister of Active Trading Partners.....

The best time to buy cheap is when you are afraid to bring up your ideas around the water cooler at work for fear of the peer laughter. Our work centers on looking for oversold conditions and crowd behavioral anomalies that can give us better low risk entries with good upside potential. A combination of fundamentals and technical, combined with Elliott Wave Theory patterns can lead to nice profits with low risk.

For just a few quick ideas that would make sense in this area, we point out 3 ETF’s that you could look at entering now as they are way out of favor and very oversold.

Gold Stocks: GDXJ The Junior Miners index is high risk, high reward. However, if you time the entry right at the opportune moment the upside is very high with low downside risk. With GOLD out of favor, we have been pounding the table the last 10 days or so that there are only 4-5 weeks left to buy quality miner names. Instead of picking through them one at a time, you can pick up the high beta play GDJX ETF.




How about Brazil? Everyone hates Brazil stocks now, but they have some of the most valuable natural resources in the world, and Brazil almost always bounces back strong off bear cycle lows. Here is a way to play the commodity rebound we see in 2014: EWZ ETF




It’s not too late to eat some Turkey: The country TURKEY also often is a very volatile play to invest, but going in during very oversold conditions often plays out to the upside for gains later on. ETF TUR is beat up, it’s time to buy.




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Bear Market Cycle Bottom Forming in Gold and Gold Stocks Right Now!

Today our trading partner David Banister takes a look at the Bullish Percent Index chart relative to Gold’s cycle and Gold Stocks.

Essentially it tells you what percentage of Gold sector stocks are at or above a moving average, which normally would be 50 days. When 70% or more are above a 50 day moving average, sectors can be peaking out. If you look at our chart at the bottom, we have labeled various incidents with A, B, C, and D.

A. The precious metal as we all know peaked in the fall of 2011 at $1923 per ounce, and the Bullish percent index was at 80%! Usually at 30% or so, they are bottoming out in most cases.

B. We saw a rare case in the summer of 2013 where the Bullish percent index for Gold stocks was at 0%, yes that is not a miss-print.

C. Gold bottomed at 1181 in late June 2013, and then rallied up to 1434 and we saw Gold stocks rally 40-80% in individual cases and the Bullish percent index rallied up to 55%.

D. If we fast forward to December 2013, we have Gold pulling back in the final 5th wave down from the Bull cycle highs in August 2011 at $1923. The Bullish percent index is back to 10% and heading towards 0 or close once again. At the same time, the Gold miners index ETF (GDX) is at 5 year lows and even lower than June-July 2013 lows.

These types of indicators are coming to a pivot point where Gold is testing the summer 1181 lows and may go a bit lower to the 1090 ranges. At the same time, we see bottoming 5th wave patterns combining with public sentiment, bullish percent indexes, and 5 year lows in Gold stocks. This is how bottom in Bear cycles form and you are witnessing the makings of a huge bottom between now and early February 2014 if we are right.

The time to buy Gold and Gold stocks is now during the next 4 - 5 weeks just as we were recommending stocks in late February 2009 with public articles that nobody paid attention to. This is the time to start accumulating quality gold miner and also the precious metals themselves as the bear cycle winds down and the spring comes back to Gold and Silver in 2014.

Click here to join us at Market Trend Forecast for regular updates on Gold, Silver, and The SP 500 Index.

GOLD’s Elliott Wave Analysis Bear Cycle Coming to a Close in December

When it comes to the actual trading aspect in gold our trading partner David A. Banister Market Trend Forecast has been our go to guy. Very interesting what he is bringing us this morning.....Is GOLD’s Elliott Wave Analysis Bear Cycle Coming to a Close in December?


Our Last major Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold came in early September when Gold had touched the 1434 area, and in that analysis we called for a re-test of 1271-1285 levels. This was based on our Elliott Wave Analysis of the patterns involved since the 1923 spot highs in the fall of 2011. Our clients of course were updated on a regular basis since that public analysis and we have been looking for clues to a bottom in this Gold bear cycle from the 2011 highs.

Most recently, we noted that we are seeing patterns commiserate with what Elliott wave theory calls a “truncated 5th wave” pattern. All Bear cycles have 5 full waves to the downside from the highs, and we have been in wave 5 since the 1434 highs. The key then is determining how low that wave 5 will take you in Gold, and planning your investments and timing around that forecast.

To qualify for a truncated 5th wave, you have to have a very strong preceding 3rd wave to the downside. In this case, we had that as Gold dropped from just over 1800 per ounce to 1181 into late June 2013. As we approached the 1181 areas, we also put out a public forecast saying that Gold has indeed bottomed and should rally strong to the upside. Recently, Gold hit a bottom at 1211 spot pricing last week and that is when we began to consider a truncated 5th wave pattern.

We sent our clients about a week ago regarding this possible Elliott wave theory bottom:

If we fast forward a week later, we had Gold running up to 1261 which was the pivot resistance line we told our subscribers to watch for. We hit it on the nose and backed off to 1224 yesterday. We now expect that if GOLD holds the 1211 area, that we will again rally back up and over 1261 and then head to the 1313 resistance zone. We would like to see Gold get over 1313 and if so our targets are in the 1560 ranges for Gold in the first half of 2014.

Aggressive investors should be accumulating quality small cap gold producing and exploration, or Gold itself depending on your preference during these last few weeks of December as our Elliott Wave Analysis is signaling a bottom is near. We would again watch 1211 as a key level to hold for this possible truncated wave 5 to work out.

Click here to join Banister at Market Trend Forecast for regular Gold & SP 500 Elliott Wave Analysis updates

The SP500 Enters Major Correction Period

Our trading partner David A. Banister of Market Trends Forecast releases his call that the SP 500 is close to confirming new correction. Says 1685 support is the key. Here's the details based on his Elliot Wave research.

The SP 500 has been on a tear since late 2012 with the SP 500 bottoming at 1266. The rally though we have been charting out as part of a “Primary wave 3″ uptrend for this Bull market cycle from March 2009, and we are likely entering a Major correction or what we would label “Major wave 4″. Since the 1266 lows, we have had Major Wave 1, 2, and now 3 completed at 1710. We are entering Major wave 4 which should correct 23-38% of the entirety of Major wave 3, which was 444 points.

This correction will be confirmed with any close below 1674 and nails in the coffin begin with any close below 1685 on the SP 500 index. Primary wave 1 of this super bull cycle ended at 1370, a 704 point rally. Primary wave 3 will likely be larger than Primary wave 1 and I am projecting a top between 1900-2000 on the SP 500 before it’s completed. The current correction is Major wave 4 of Primary wave 3, which has 5 Major waves required. With that said, our projections are for 1605 on the shallow side and 1540 on the deeper side for Major wave 4 of Primary wave 3.

Now it is possible that we may extend a bit higher yet in Major wave 3 to 1736-1772, but only if we hold the 1685 support lines which the market is basing around currently. In any event, at our Trading service we have been aggressively taking profits in the past two weeks on multiple positions while still holding a few open at this time.

Below is a chart showing our projected correction pivots of 1605 and 1540, subscribers will be updated on a regular basis. Just click here to join Banister with a 33% discount on his trading service and also receive Precious Metals (GOLD) forecasts on a regular basis every week.




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Why Great Stocks Drop Hard and Reverse

Institutional sell programs and bots cause disruptions with David Banister, Chief Strategist at the Active Trading Partners......

One thing that will always over rule charts and technical analysis is fundamentals in the long run. To be sure, I love technical analysis but I always combine my work there with fundamental research. I rarely if ever buy a stock just because the chart looks nice, that is almost always a recipe for disaster.

With that said, how many times have you seen a good company with strong fundamentals and a seemingly great looking chart break down over 1-2 weeks and take everyone out of the trade? Then for sure, the stock reverses right back up all the way back to where the decline began? To make matters worse, this happens without any real news or any bad news as it were. What is it that causes these crazy down the mountain and up the mountain moves anyways?

Insitutional Sell Programs— sometimes referred to as “Bots” or “Algo” program trading

How does it work?

In an apparently strong fundamental growth stock with no apparent issues, an institution will have a pre-defined price at which point instructions are triggered to liquidate the entire position almost at any price once that price point is hit. They protect themselves ahead of time with Puts, which give them profits if the targeted stock drops hard while they are selling out of the position, thereby locking in their targeted sell price.

Lets take several examples, here's the 3 month charts to show you exactly how they look on paper.



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They Just Rang A Bell On Gold and Gold Stocks

Our trading partner David A. Banister of Market Trend Forecast has been the go to guy on gold and precious metals. Let's check in with Banister and see if he thinks the bottom is in for gold.

As they say on Wall Street, “They don’t ring bells at the top” and for sure they usually don’t give you a phone call at the bottom either. Many heads have rolled trying to call this recent near 2 year downdraft in Gold in terms of bottom callers, me included. I thought we would never get much below 1440 or so from the 1923 highs, but alas we all know we did.

What makes me think that last week put in the final Gold low for the bear cycle? Too many things to mention, but based on the work I do enough to give me some chutzpah to make this call now. The 1180’s are very close to a classic ABC 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior 34 month bull cycle. That cycle ran from October 2008 to August 2011 with a rally from $681 to $1900’s area. The most recent 21 plus month decline dropped right into the 61% pivot retracement of that entire move, and over a Fibonacci 21 month period as well! Human behavior does repeat over and over again, and as we all know in hindsight at the tops everyone is bullish and at the bottoms everyone is bearish.

I think it’s pretty much as simple as that. Investors get overly optimistic and exuberant in all kinds of asset classes and finally at the highs everyone believes the rally can only go on and on forever. At the opposite near the bottoms nearly everyone is calling for lower prices and further catastrophe ahead. Stocks in the sector are priced for near bankruptcy. Newsletter writers are universally bearish, and the small trader has a big short position. Only a few weeks ago the Bullish Percentile index measurement on the Gold Stock Index was at 0! That means nobody was bullish on the Gold stocks by the measure that is used. We quickly had an 8% rally in the index after that reading, then in the last few weeks we came all the way back down again to even lower levels!

If you watched the action last Thursday as Gold was melting down below $1200 a curious thing happened. The gold miners were ignoring the move and going green! On Friday, as Gold reversed to 1234 they went ballistic with one of my favorite miners going up 16% on Friday alone on the highest volume in 5 years! Those are the signals I’ve been waiting for to call the capitulation lows. My guess is some money managers are front running the coming 3rd quarter rotation they see in Gold and Gold Miners, Copper, Coal, and other commodity stocks.

So below is my basic GLD ETF multiyear chart using very simple monthly views to see the big picture. You can see a classic ABC pattern of bear market correction and now a near 61.8% perfect Fibonacci retracement of the prior leg up. I’d say enough is enough, pick your spots and start buying.




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Gold Stocks: Its Time To Be BRAVE!

By David Banister, Chief Strategist the Market Trend Forecast.........

I used to half joke with some of my investing friends that the best time to buy stocks is during or right after a crash. Think 1987, 2000-2002, 2008-09, and now perhaps Gold Miners?? Well, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, lets examine evidence of a “Crash”: I like to use crowd behavioral, empirical, and technical evidence in combination.

1. In a recent money managers poll, virtually nobody was bullish on Gold or Gold stocks, and over 80% of those polled were bullish on the SP 500 and US stocks.

2. The percentage of Dumb Money traders (non-reportable traders) in the futures markets with short positions on Gold is at all time highs, they tend to be very long at the highs and very short at the lows.

3. The insider buying ratio of Gold Mining stocks to sellers is running over 10 to 1, the highest since October 2008 when Gold bottomed out at $685 per ounce from $1030 highs. Quoting Ted Dixon, CEO of Ink Research, “such a high level of buying interest among officers and directors within their own businesses in the resource sector has correctly foreshadowed a recovery in share prices in the past: That high point of nearly five years ago came about six weeks before the Venture market bottomed on Dec. 5, 2008…While the excitement that surrounded mining stocks as recently as two years ago has waned, experienced value investors recognize that such periods of investor neglect often give rise to the best deals” Source: Theglobeandmail.com

4. The ratio of the HUI Gold Bugs Index to the SP 500 is at multi year lows and in near crash mode on the charts. The RSI Index (Relative strength) on the weekly charts is at 10 year lows at -13.71, which is off the charts low!!

5. Most trading message boards I view at Stocktwits and others are universally bearish on Gold and Gold stocks.

6. Gold is in a wave B or Wave 5 down re-testing the 1322 lows which we have discussed here for weeks as very likely if 1470 was not taken out on the upside… this is a normal sentiment pattern and re-test.

7. Gold has been in a 21 Fibonacci month correction pattern off a 34 Fibonacci month rally from 686-1923. In August of 2011 I penned articles from 1805 right up to 1900 warning of a massive wave 3 top forming. Everyone was bullish, now it’s the complete opposite.

8. Currency debasement continues around the world with negative real interest rates. This is bullish for Gold once this correction has run its course.

9. Hulbert Digest Gold Sentiment index is at an all time low (gold newsletters at -35 sentiment readings!!)

10. Gold -Silver put to call ratios are at all time highs

I could go on and on with headlines and such, but you get the idea. This is the same type of sentiment I wrote about on the stock market on Feb 25th 2009, here is that article... and nobody on the planet was bullish.

Below is a chart showing the Bullish % index for Gold Miners, as you can see the last time we were at 0% was late 2008 when Gold had bottomed out and insiders were also buying like crazy like now:



The GLD ETF chart also shows a likely re-test or slightly lower of the 1322 futures lows of April, when Insider buying hit 10 year record levels:



Obviously Gold could end up going a lot lower than we think, and the Gold Mining stocks could sink further yet. But for those with a 3-6 month horizon, we expect the 21-24 month Gold correction to complete by no later than October 2013. During the next several months the opportunities to buy some miners on the cheap will potentially make some investors a lot of money in the coming few years.


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Correction near but Bull Market has LONG waves to Go!

Are you using Elliot Wave theory in your trading? Today David Banister of Market Trend Forecast is laying out the Elliot formations in detail. Do yourself a favor and take a few minutes to make sure you are looking at this market through his eyes. Can any of us call the pull back exactly and reliably? No, of course not. But we should all be taking this into consideration.

The SP 500 has been on a tear as we all know especially since the SP 500 bottomed at 1343 several months ago. My work centers around forecasting using Elliott Wave Theory along with other technical indicators. This helps with projecting the short, intermediate, and longer term paths in the stock market and also precious metals. This larger picture Bull Cycle started in March of 2009 interestingly after an exact 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire move from 1974 to 2000 lows to highs. At 666, we had completed a major cycle bottom with about 9 years of movement to retrace 26 years of overall bull cycle. That was a major set of 3 waves (Corrective patterns in Elliott Wave Theory) from the 2000 highs to 2002-3 lows, then 2007 highs to 2009 lows. Once that completed its work, we were free to have a huge new bull market cycle off extreme sentiment and generational lows.

It’s important to understand where we were at in March of 2009 just as much as it is today with the market at all time highs. Is this the time to bail out of stocks or do we have a lot more upside yet to go? Our short answer is there is quite a bit more upside left in the indexes, but there are multiple patterns that must take place along the way. We will try to lay those out for you here as best we can.

Elliott Wave theory in general calls for 5 full wave cycles in a Bull pattern, with 1, 3, and 5 bullish and 2 and 4 corrective. We are currently in what is often the most bullish of all the patterns, a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd. In English, we are in Primary wave 3 of this bull cycle which will be 5 total primary waves. We are in Major wave 3 of that Primary 3, and in the Intermediate wave 3 of Major wave 3. That is why the market continues its relentless climb. This primary wave 3 still has lots of work to do because Major wave 3 still has a 4th wave down and a 5th wave up to finish, then we need a major 4, then a major 5.

That will complete primary wave 3. This will then be followed by a Primary wave 4 cycle correction that probably lasts several months, and then a Primary wave 5 cycle to finish this part of the bull market from March 2009 generational lows… and all of that work is going to take time. Once that entire process from March 2009 has completed, then we should see a much deeper and uglier correction pattern, but we think that is at least 12 months or more away.

What everyone wants to know then is where are we at right now and what are some likely areas for pivot highs and lows ahead? We should complete this 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd here shortly and have a wave 4 correction working off what will likely be almost 300 points of upside from SP 500 1343. We could see as much as 90-120 points of correction in the major index once this wave completes. Loosely we see 1528-1534 as a possible top and if not then maybe another 30 or so points above that maximum into early June. This should then trigger that 90-120 point correction, and then be followed by yet another run to highs.

We could go on but then we will lose our readers here for sure, and as it is… this is all projections and postulations, so it’s best to keep the forecast to the next many weeks or few months. Below is a chart we have put together showing the structure of Major wave 3 of Primary 3 since the 1343 lows. Once that Major wave 3 tops out (see the blue 3) then we will have Major 4, then Major 5 to complete Primary wave 3 since the 1074 SP 500 lows. Whew!



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Final Stages of the Advance on SP 500....The Wave Pattern

Our trading partner David Banister has been projecting a potential rally pivot at 1552-1576 for many weeks now. The recent drop to 1485 although harrowing, was a normal fibonacci retracement of the last major rally leg to 1531 pivot highs. Banister believes that this 5 wave advance 1343 pivot lows is nearing an end based on mathematics and relationships to prior waves 1-3.

At 1569 the SP 500 would mark a perfect fibonacci relationships to waves 1-3 for this final 5th wave to the upside. In the big picture, we are still working higher off the 1010 pivot lows on the SP 500, and this rally takes 5 full waves to complete. He thinks we are near wave 3 highs, and wave 4 correction would be up next, followed by another thrust to highs if all goes well this year.

That all said, a multi-week correction and consolidation wave 4 pattern is likely once we pivot at 1552-1576. We should expect this correction to retrace anywhere from 80 -100 points on the SP 500, but one week at a time.

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Playing the ABC Gap fill for swing trading entry at ATP

From guest analyst David Banister....

One of my favorite “Crowd Behavioral” patterns is the ABC Gap fill pattern. This is a normal correction pattern in the stock market that works off overbought sentiment. You can apply this to liquid individual stocks in most cases, and look ahead to spot potential entries on your watch list for trading.

A sample we will use today is KORS, a fast growth stock of the leading luxury retailer Michael Kors. We notified our subscribers several days in advance to watch for a gap fill at $57 on this stock before entering a long trade. We also spotted what looked like a classic C wave pattern coming down from a B wave interim top.

Sure enough it took several days but the stock worked its way down to $57 and hit the gap on the nose on February 26th. It immediately reversed to end the day $2.25 higher or about 4-5% swing gains on this pattern. The chart below shows a 1, 2, 3, and 4 pattern with ABC making up the 4 pattern on KORS stock.

At ATP, we look for ABC and other patterns in growth plays and swing trade them long for reversals, just as the crowd of traders has stopped out and gone sour on the stock. Consider joining us by learning more at The Active Trading Partners.com



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SP 500 “E Wave” ready to rally to Bull Market Highs

From guest analyst David Banister at Market Trends Forecast.com.......

In recent updates I have been projecting a series of ABCDE waves to take the Bull market to post March 2009 highs in the 1425-1445 ranges. The recent pullback was expected as what I was calling a “D wave” pullback, with an E wave to come. These final 5th waves or E waves can be extension waves or relatively benign, hence causing difficulty in forecasting the upper ranges.

In the case of the SP 500 index, we have had a strong rally from the 1267 lows in early June to 1409 highs so far (The C wave highs) and recently a pullback into the 1390’s (The D wave). This next leg up should carry the market indices towards the 1440 2008 interim highs which begat the last 5 wave down leg of the Bear cycle that ended at 666 on the SP 500. A case of down the mountain and up the mountain if you will since the 2008 highs to current pricing conditions at 1404.

Once this E wave completes in the 1425-1445 ranges (With an outside shot at an extension blast to 1495) we should expect a fairly significant correction of the entire move from March of 2009. This final rally leg could top anytime between Aug 13th and August 22nd as I last updated, with potential to spill over into early September.

A close over 1409 will confirm the “E wave” has begun in earnest and you may want to buckle up, as it could be the final blast before some rains begin to pour in the fall.

If you’d like to be up to date on the daily and weekly views of the SP 500 and GOLD and Silver, get a discount at Market Trends Forecast.com or sign up for our free weekly reports.

Is Gold Close to Confirming a Breakout to All Time Highs

Is late summer or fall of 2012 going to be remembered for gold making a run to all time highs. Today David Banister gives us his take on where this gold market is headed in the near future......

Back in the fall of 2011 I was warning my subscribers and the public via articles to prepare for a large correction in the price of GOLD. The metal had experienced a primary wave 3 rally from $681 per ounce in the fall of 2008 to the upper $1800’s at the time of my warnings in the fall of 2011. A 34 Fibonacci month rally was sure to be followed by an 8-13 month consolidation period, or what I would term a Primary wave 4 correction pattern.

We have seen GOLD drop at low as the $1520’s during this expected 8-13 month window, but at this time it looks to me like a break over $1630 on a closing basis will put the nail in the wave 4 coffin. I expect GOLD to rally for about 8-13 months into at least June of 2013 and our longstanding target has been in the $2300 per ounce arena in US Dollar terms. Some pundits have much higher targets in the $3,500 per ounce or higher area but I am using my low end targets for reasonable accuracy.

This 5th wave up can be difficult to project because 5th waves in stock or metals markets can be what are called “Extension” waves. This means they can have a potentially much larger percentage movement relative to the prior waves 1 and 3 of the primary bull market since 2001. You can end up with a parabolic move at the end of wave 5, where those $3000 plus targets are possible. I expect the 5th wave to be about 61% of the amplitude of wave 3, which ran from 681 to 1923, or about $1242 per ounce. If we were to apply that math, we come up with $767 per ounce of rally off the wave 4 lows. $1520 plus $767 puts us at $2287 per ounce, or roughly $2300 an ounce low end target.

In summary, crowd behavior is crucial to the next coming movement in GOLD and it could be a sharp rally that catches many off guard, much like the downdraft last fall did the same to the Bulls. Be prepared to go long GOLD once over $1630 per ounce and buy dips along the way up to $2300 into the summer of 2013.

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Do You Agree.... The SP 500 Nearing a Cyclical High

One of our favorite traders to follow is David Banister [make sure to sign up for his calls] and he just sent over this great post on his thoughts on the SP 500 nearing a cyclical high in the coming two weeks of trade. And here's what he is thinking.......

The SP 500 has rallied to a post June 4th high of 1409 this week, about 13 points shy of the Bull Market cycle highs of 1422 earlier this year.

The rally has overlapped along the way, forming a series of “3′s” which are sometimes found in impulsive bullish moves, but usually found at the end of bull cycles whether they be short term or long term cycles.

To wit, the first 11 trading days off the 1267 SP 500 lows saw a 97 point rally, again in only 11 trading days.

The last 34 trading days we have only been able to move up about 44 further points, indicating the rally is getting long in the tooth and a bit tired at that.

So 11 days, 97 points… 34 more days, only 44 further points.

Another 10 trading days would mark a 55 fibonacci trading day cycle, so we should be alert to potential rally highs between August 13th and August 22nd as a window for a top.

A few days ago I discussed we may see a continual sloppy drift up to 1425-1445 ranges, with 1434 a key pivot line to watch.

Although the count doesnt really fit for me, if this rally from the June lows is a 5th and final wave up… then a 5th wave rally to complete a larger cycle often is characterized by a series of 3′s.

To summarize:

The first leg of the rally was a 3 wave rally to 1363, about 97 points in 11 days. We have continued with overlapping 3′s. This final stage of the rally is likely going to be 5 waves or ABCDE in nature to complete the entire cycle up from 1267

That cycle high should come within the Aug 13th-22nd window and in the 1425-1445 ranges.

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Is Gold Ready to Run to All Time High?

Just under two weeks ago I updated my subscribers with a chart pattern on the GLD ETF, and in that update we discussed what to look for to find clues in this GOLD consolidation that has continued from last August-September highs. My theory all along has been that we peaked in a “Wave Three” top at 1900-1920 last fall after a Fibonacci 34 month rally from $681 per ounce. The ensuing corrective patterns are part of a normal “Wave 4” consolidation that works off the sentiment and overbought nature of that wave 3 updraft. Following this consolidation, I fully expect GOLD to continue past the $1900 per ounce area and run to $2300 per ounce or higher in a Wave 5 rally into the summer of 2013.

What can we continue to watch for clues though as to when this new uptrend begins? Specifically a close over 158 on the GLD ETF (About $1630 on the GOLD Charts) would confirm that the wave 4 lows are in at the $1520 area and the early stages of Primary wave 5 to the upside have begun. The only downside risk I have near term between now and October is if we drop below 153 on the GLD ETF, it would likely point to GOLD dropping to the $1445-$1455 per ounce area, the same low target I have had for 9 plus months now as the worst case downside.

Advice would be to start scaling into long positions on a break over 158 on the GLD ETF and adding on pullbacks along the way up. If we can’t break 158 then the advice is to sit back and watch before acting.

Below is the chart I completed for my subscribers about fourteen or so days ago, and we continue to use it as our short term indicator for the next leg up or down. Eventually, gold will run to all time highs, we simply would like to time our entry and reduce our risk as much as possible.

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What the GLD ETF Chart tells us about GOLD

Gold had remained in a rough 1550-1640 range for several weeks now. Tonight, we look at the GLD ETF, which represents the Gold spot price movements.  Over the past 5 months we can see in the chart below  the clear downtrend lines.

Recently, in the past 6 weeks we have seen a series of 3 higher lows including today where a lower gap filled in and then Gold reversed upwards.

What Gold needs to do, in terms of this GLD ETF is clear the 158 hurdle on a closing basis to set up a stage for a new advance. I would expect in the intervening months to October for Gold to continuing meandering and correcting to as low as 1445-1455, my longstanding Gold worst case low targets I’ve had since last September.

Near term key levels are 150 on the downside and 158 on the upside. If we close below 150 on GLD ETF then we should be looking for my 1445-1455 areas to be hit this summer before a low. If we clear 158 on the GLD ETF, then the triple bottom at 1520 is likely confirmed and we can start tracking some upside for Gold.

David A. Banister is Chief Strategist at Market Trends Forecast.com

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Market Giving Major Correction Signs

The SP 500 has rallied up into the 1375/77 pivot areas as I had outlined to my subscribers about 10 days ago on the weekend update as possible highs for C wave up from the 1267 SP 500 lows of June. Many forecasters are now getting very bullish, but I continue to see divergences with The Elliott Wave counts and other indicators that are giving me some short term concerns, and then we can determine if these are long term issues still for the markets.

Today’s Independence Day update shows a new chart pointing out prior “Recovery rally highs” since the May 2011 1370 highs on the SP 500. In each case, a major market correction unfolded when we had the NYMOT indicators at these levels along with Stochastics, CCI, and other Fibonacci indicators I incorporate at various times. Currently, we have the NYMOT indicators at a reading of 307. To understand this in context, its the highest reading in the past two years. Higher than the 1292 SP 500 rally high in October 2011 (From 1074) and higher than any other rally high in the past 24 months.

Adding to that, we have the Stochatics indicators at extreme short term highs and the CCI index is nearing the levels it read at the recent 1363 pivot highs. Finally, further puzzle pieces continue to show divergences in the Elliott Wave patterns. The rally from 1267-the current 1375 levels can’t be interpreted in my opinion as a 5 wave rally (which would be bullish), instead its an overlapping 3 wave rally in my views., or a double zig zag. These types of rallies are corrective rallies against a prevailing trend, which was down in to early June.

The rally to 1375 areas is actually in the zone I discussed a few weeks ago, and still in the 1386 or lower Fibonacci zone I’ve outlined as a C wave target for an ABC rally from 1267 June 2012 lows. My work still gives a model of 1422-1267 as 5 waves down, and 1267-current as a zig zag corrective pattern up. The market will soon tip it’s hand I think after this holiday week is over and we see a bit more volume return next week.

With all of this said, it is difficult to be too bearish given the 52 week highs in many blue chip stocks as well as the strong advance-decline lines and recovery in some of the tech stocks of late. When you get a lot of conflicting signals like this, I try to fall back on a variety of indicators and clues to help clear up the clouds of the market.

In conclusion, near term I will be very surprised if at a minimum we do not have significant pullback in the market next week. The rally could sneak a bit higher during this holiday light volume week, so lets look to next week for volumes to return and tell the tale. Taking some gains off the table in the coming 1-2 trading days is probably not a bad move.

By David A. Banister- Chief Strategist The Market Trend Forecast


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Gold still at risk of a large downward move before the rally

Gold has been busy consolidating in what I believe will be a 13 Fibonacci month Primary wave 4 correction. The Gold bull market I’ve been following since 2001 is a likely 13 year bull cycle that will end in 2013 or 2014 depending on how you count. This current correction pattern is working off a 34 Fibonacci month rally that took Gold from 681 to 1923 at its ultimate highs. Last fall I warned about the parabolic run likely ending in the 1908 ranges and for investors to position themselves accordingly.

Today we have Gold trading around 1600 and our recent forecast in May was for a rally into Mid June topping around 1620-1650 ranges in US Dollars. The intermediate forecast still calls for a possible drop to 1445-1455 ranges this summer, the same figures I gave out on TheStreet.Com interview last September for a Primary wave 4 low.....Read the entire article and charts.


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SP 500 Update.... U.S. Markets wear the Heavy Crown

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The US market is one of very few trying to maintain a long term uptrend Bull cycle around the world.  Most major world indices are in decline, only Germany and London are also trying to hang in of the major indices.

Will the rest of European problems continue to spillover and weigh down our markets in finally cause a flush?  Or… will the US stay strong and lead higher amidst the turmoil?

The threat of debt repudiation resonates throughout Europe and has major headwinds for the Banking industries and otherwise… and it may be hard for the US market to gain much traction until we find out if there are any resolutions near term.

The Technical picture is mixed.  The drop to 1292 from 1422 highs created a 38% fibonacci retracement of the October lows at 1074 and the March highs of 1422.  This is typical for a 4th wave correction after 3 waves of rally.  In addition, we had Mclellan Oscillators at extreme lows coming into this past week, investor sentiment running at multi month lows not seen since last summer, and many other oversold indicators.

This led to a 36 point bounce early in the week from 1292 to 1328, but it had trouble holding into the end of the week. I was looking for a strong close over 1322 to help confirm the downtrends lows were in place at 1292, but we did not get that just yet.  Near term we have to see a very strong bounce this coming week over 1330 on a closing basis or the market will be at risk of a rising bearish wedge and then another large downleg to new lows since the 1422 highs.  Therefore, Tuesday and Wednesday in my opinion will likely immediately tell us which way this market is about to go.

We have a few outlooks that are valid.  One is that we had an ABC correction from 1422-1292 and we are in the early stages of a Major Wave 5 up bullish pattern.  The  other is we had 3 waves down, this is a 4th wave bounce, and a 5th wave to new lows on the move is next.  Again, early in the week will be key in my opinion.

Here are two charts. One shows the Weekly SP 500 pattern and prior pivot points where downtrends halted and reversed. In each case the candlestick pattern for the week was inside and above the prior weeks lows and closed higher (White Candlesticks).  This also happened this past week, but I again would like to see higher closing levels early in the week to confirm.

The other chart is a daily chart showing the 1330 barrier we would like to see crossed to avoid a rising bearish wedge pattern.

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David Banister

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