As we wind down 2010 it's no surprise that the Monday morning quarterbacks are coming out of the wood work. Everyone pundit, reporter or writer who considers themselves an “expert” comes out of their ivory towers and makes their annual market predictions for the New Year.
It’s time to kiss those predictions goodbye
I can honestly say that I wish I had a crystal ball like these other forecasters, but that’s not quite how the markets work. You see, markets don’t give a “Rats A**” about what forecasters say or what predictions economists make. The market is the only true voice out there. Think about that for a moment. How many predictions do you remember that were even close to being spot on a year in advance? I remember several forecasts for 2010 and most of them were far from accurate.
Does it make any sense to trade on a year end forecast, not knowing what can happen in this crazy world we live in? It doesn’t make any sense to me or to other professional traders who never trade based on year end predictions. So let’s get back to reality and take a look back on 2010 to see what the big trends are showing for 2011.
1. GOLD: Major Trade Triangles Bullish
Let’s start with everyone’s favorite market, gold.
Gold is without question the most emotional market in the world. Investors and traders who are involved with this metal are passionate about its future and that can be a bad thing. Let me explain. Back in 1980 gold peaked around $850 an ounce. Had you purchased gold around that time, it would have taken approximately 30 years for gold to get above that level again. Call it the lost 3 decades.
Now the arguments are that the gold market should be trading well above $2,000 and that the central banks and governments are manipulating the price for their own advantage. Don’t believe it. There are also hundreds of other conspiracy theories that seem to pop up for this particular market. Like I said, it is a passionate and emotional market.
Here’s how I’m going to trade gold in 2011. In 2011, I’m going to rely on
MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology which has an excellent track record in gold. By taking a methodical approach and not guessing which way the wind is blowing, you have a far greater chance to close out 2011 with a big plus for the year.
I expect the gold trend will carry over from 2010 and then change somewhere along the line. This is the history of this market. One thing that I can be 100% certain of is that gold prices will fluctuate in 2011. That’s a guarantee!
2. CRUDE OIL: Major Trade Triangles Bullish
Next, let’s take a look at a market that impacts everyone’s pocket book, crude oil. Crude oil recently moved over $90 to two year highs and once again shook up excitement in this market. When looking at the fundamental market, we’re running out of oil, production continues to go down, and no new oil fields have been discovered in the last several years. The other fundamental story is that China and India are becoming more affluent and developing a middle class economy which will lead to increased oil consumption to power their newly purchased cars and scooters. This could all be true, however; it really doesn’t change the way you should be looking at the market. Once again, we are going to rely on MarketClub’s Trade Triangle technology, which has done a stellar job identifying trends in this market over the last few years.
So at the moment, the trend in crude oil is on the upside for 2011.
3. US DOLLAR INDEX: Major Trade Triangles Mixed to Negative
The other big market that everyone is talking about is the US dollar. You may or may not remember the doomsday forecasts in December of 2009 for the dollar. Quite the opposite occurred as the dollar enjoyed a spectacular rally for the next six months. That’s the whole point of this report; listen to the markets and ignore the predictions of the so called experts. Again, we will be relying on our Trade Triangle Technology and the technical approach to follow market trends in 2011.
4. GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS: Major Trade Triangles Bullish
I want to talk about the stock market, both in the US and overseas. One of the more interesting portfolios we created in 2010 was MarketClub’s “Global Strategy” portfolio that tracks five different countries. The MarketClub technique using the ETF markets has worked well for our members. We track the following five countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and Australia. (
This portfolio, which is available to all MarketClub members, can be seen here.) We also follow the ETF SPY as it tracks the S&P500. Once again, we use our Trade Triangle Technology to determine the trends in five ETFs.
5. COMMODITY MARKETS: Major Trade Triangles Bullish
Lastly, I want to talk about the commodity markets. You have no doubt heard or have seen that copper prices are at record highs, but you also have other markets that are jumping up and these are all anticipating both strong demand and are now in the beginnings of an inflationary spiral that we envisioned sometime back. Commodities are going to be very important in the future. Traders should be paying close attention to these markets and creating in a new portfolio manager with various commodity portfolios to track these lucrative markets. If you want to see how we have have performed in these markets you may want to
take a look at MarketClub’s “World Cup” Portfolio. Since July of 2007, your money would have multiplied 786.16 %by June of 2010. That’s enough to turn $50,000 into $391,580.00 in just three years.
So maybe this is not as exciting or as hyped up as someone saying, “Here are my top five picks for 2011,” but it’s a way to make real money in 2011 and not without having to wing it like so many investors will be doing in the new year.
I think 2011 is going to offer some extraordinary opportunities in the markets listed above. Remember, in every crisis or every boom there are opportunities to make money. It’s when things are dull and boring that it becomes more difficult to produce the type of returns that we are looking for.
So what’s my number one tip for 2011? Watch and trade with the
MarketClub’s Trade Triangle technology and ignore the hyped up new year predictions. Here’s wishing you every success in 2011.
Guest blogger
Adam Hewison is the Co-founder of
MarketClub/INO.com
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