Crude Oil Closes Sharply Lower, Posting a New Three Week Low

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Thursday and posted a new three week low as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.88 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.29. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.88. First support is today's low crossing at 72.05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed sharply higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.876 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.876. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 5.249. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.


The U.S. Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it renewed this month's decline below the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Despite today's decline, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.79 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.79. First support is today's low crossing at 84.96. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed sharply lower on Thursday and below last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1168.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1248.80. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1263.70. First support is today's low crossing at 1198.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

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Crude Oil Drops for a Seventh Day on Build in U.S. Gasoline Stocks and Europe Debt

Crude oil dropped for a seventh day in New York, its longest losing streak in five months, on concern that gasoline demand shows signs of slowing in the U.S. and as investors delayed buying commodities on speculation that the European debt crisis will worsen. Oil slumped to its weakest level in seven months after the euro touched a four year low earlier today as European nations struggle to meet austerity requirements. Crude prices also fell after an American Petroleum Institute report showed gasoline inventories in the world’s biggest energy consumer rose 981,000 barrels last week.

“Sometimes people are focusing a little too much on the good aspects of Asia, we need to remember that the north Atlantic economies are really important for oil,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in a Bloomberg Television interview from Melbourne. “And both the U.S. and Europe are very weak fundamentally.” Crude oil for June delivery dropped as much as $1.51, or 2.2 percent, to $67.90 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest intraday price since Sept. 30. It was at $68.72 at 11:48 a.m. in Singapore. Yesterday, the contract fell 67 cents to $69.41 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Sept. 29.

The U.S. Dollar traded at $1.2211 per euro at 11:50 a.m. Singapore time, from $1.2202 in New York yesterday. The euro fell yesterday after Germany said it will ban naked short selling and naked credit default swaps of euro area sovereign debt and the Bank of Italy allowed lenders to exclude losses on government bonds.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Finishes the Week Sharply Lower, Bears Maintain Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended the decline off April's high but fell short of testing February's low crossing at 70.75. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends today's decline, February's low crossing at 70.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.83 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.59. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.83. First support is today's low crossing at 70.83. Second support is February's low crossing at 70.75.

Natural gas closed slightly lower due to light profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.119 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.414. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.140. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.119.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends this year's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 87.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.13 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 86.40. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.22. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.52. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.13.

Gold closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off February's low. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are hard to project. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1181.00 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1206.30. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1181.00.


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Commodities Market Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it resumed last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends today's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.47 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.03. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.47. First support is today's low crossing at 73.62. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86.

Natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.077 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.414. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.128. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.077.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 85.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.86 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 85.46. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 85.85. First support is Monday's low crossing at 83.07. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.86.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are hard to project. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1176.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1249.20. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1201.40. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1176.40.



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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and is poised to resume last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June renews last week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.08 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.09. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.08. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 74.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86.

Natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this week's rally above the 20 day moving average. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438 is the next upside target. If June renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.292. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.042. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.855.

Gold posted another new all time high on Wednesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are hard to project. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1172.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1249.20. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1194.90. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1172.70.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.62 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 85.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 85.46. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 85.85. First support is Monday's low crossing at 83.07. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.62.



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Crude Oil Bulls Fading Fast as Signals Remain Bearish

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and is poised to resume last week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June renews last week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.64 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.86. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.64. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 74.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86.

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.118. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends Monday's rally, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438 is the next upside target. If June renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.235. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.855. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.502.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday ending a two day correction off this month's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.39 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 85.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 85.46. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 85.85. First support is Monday's low crossing at 83.07. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.39.

Gold closed higher on Tuesday and posted a new all time high and at the same time renewing the rally off February's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are hard to project. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1169.20 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1235.20. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1189.20. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1169.20.


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Crude Oil Rallies on Crisis Relief.....Bears Still Hold The Advantage

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends last week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.10 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.52. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.10. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 74.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86.

Natural gas closed higher on Monday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.123. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends today's rally, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438 is the next upside target. If June renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.235. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.855. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.502.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 85.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.19 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 85.46. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 85.85. First support is today's low crossing at 83.07. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.19.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally, December's high crossing at 1230.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1165.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1214.90. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1230.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1182.10. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1165.30.


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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil's sharp fall last week indicates that rise from 69.50 is completed at 87.15 on a double top reversal pattern (87.05/87.15). Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to test 69.50 key support next. On the upside, above 78.19 resistance will argue that a temporary bottom is formed and bring consolidations. But we'd expect strong resistance at double top neck line (80.53) and 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 81.55) to limit upside and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Such rise might have completed at 87.15 already, ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Stage is Set For Lower Crude Oil Numbers Next Week

Crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.51 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.23. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.52. First support is today's low crossing at 74.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates above trading range support crossing at 3.914. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.119 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.119. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.855. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.502.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 85.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.01 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 85.46. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 85.85. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.04. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.01.

Gold closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally, December's high crossing at 1230.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1163.20 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1214.90. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1230.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1177.10. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1163.20.




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MarketClub Crude Oil, Gold, Natural Gas and U.S. Dollar Numbers For Friday Morning

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.66 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.52. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.66. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 74.58. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 72.86.

Natural gas was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates above trading range support crossing at 3.914. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. A downside breakout of trading range support crossing at 3.914 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 3.339 later this spring. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.117 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.117. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing 4.424. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.855. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.339.

The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 85.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 85.46. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 85.85. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.03. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.00.

Gold was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 1206.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1162.60 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1211.90. Second resistance is the December high crossing at 1230.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1175.90. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1162.60.




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Crude Oil Bulls Continue to Take on Chart Damage....Bears Hold Clear Advantage

Crude oil closed down $3.53 at $76.44 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh three month low of $74.58 amid the EU debt crisis that is playing out and which has rattled most markets. A stronger U.S. dollar index and meltdown in the stock markets were main bearish factors for crude today. Serious near term chart damage has been inflicted in crude this week, to suggest a near term market top is now in place.

Natural gas closed down 7.5 cents at $3.917 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today, scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart and scored a fresh contract low. The bears have the solid near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.25.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 84 points at 85.04 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh contract and 12 month high. European Union sovereign debt troubles will continue to support the dollar index. The bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.

Gold closed up $28.00 at $1,203.00 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh five month high of $1,209.20. Safe haven buying amid the European Union debt crisis is fueling strong gains in gold. A stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices failed to limit the strong buying interest in gold today. A meltdown in the U.S. stock market in afternoon trading gave gold prices an additional boost. Gold bulls have the solid near term technical advantage and gained more upside technical momentum today.

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Crude Oil Bulls Take on Serious Chart Damage....Bears Take Clear Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed down $2.95 at $79.79 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 10 week low amid the EU debt crisis that is playing out. A stronger U.S. dollar index was a main bearish factor for crude today. Serious near term chart damage has been inflicted in crude the past two days, to suggest a near term market top is now in place.

Natural gas closed down 3.8 cents at $3.975 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. The recent pause at lower price levels is not bullish. A minor bear flag has formed on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid near term technical advantage.

Gold futures closed up $5.40 at $1,174.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today as traders stepped in to "buy the dip" and do some bargain hunting at lower price levels. A stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices did limit the upside in gold today. Gold was also supported today on safe haven buying support as rioting occurred in Greece due to austerity measures taken by the government to reduce is massive debt. No chart damage occurred on the downside correction.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 79 points at 84.22 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh contract and 12 month high. European Union sovereign debt troubles will continue to support the dollar index. The bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. However, the dollar index is now short term overbought, technically.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed up $0.76 at $83.20 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today after hitting a fresh five week low early on. Crude oil bulls are fading and need to show more power soon. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the April high of $87.59 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 4.2 cents at $4.357 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh five week high in quieter trading. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are trading sideways and choppy at lower price levels. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.75.

Gold futures closed up $10.00 at $1,172.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh nearly five month high. Gold's gains today again came despite a stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil futures prices. Traders this week are buying gold as a safe haven asset and as a hedge against further weakening of the European currencies as the Greek debt crisis appears to be worsening. Gold bulls have the solid near term technical advantage and have gained more upside momentum this week.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 16 points at 82.47 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh contract high on a flight to quality amid the European Union's sovereign debt crisis. The bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and have gained more upside momentum this week.


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Stronger Dollar Sends Crude Oil Bulls to the Sidelines

Crude oil closed down $2.14 at $82.06 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh five week low close. Prices were pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index and weaker stock market today. Crude oil bulls are now fading and need to show fresh power soon. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the April high of $87.59 a barrel.

Natural gas closed down 2.4 cents at $4.327 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are trading sideways and choppy at lower price levels. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $4.421.

Gold futures closed up $8.00 at $1,162.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart and hit a fresh three week high. Gold's gains came despite a stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil futures prices. Traders were buying gold today as a hedge against further weakening of the European currencies as the Greek debt crisis appears to be worsening. Gold bulls have the firm near term technical advantage and gained some more upside momentum today.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 86 points at 82.47 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh contract high on a flight to quality amid the European Union's sovereign debt crisis. The bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today.


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Crude Oil Closes Below 20 Day, Signals Still Give Bulls The Advantage

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.97. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends last Friday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 87.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's high crossing at 81.73 would open the door for a larger degree decline into early May. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 85.19. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.26. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 81.73. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 81.18.

Natural gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.421 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of this month's trading range. If June renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.421. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.4438. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.967. Second support is the early April low crossing at 3.914.

Gold closed slightly lower due to profit taking on Monday but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1148.40. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June renews this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 1184.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 1124.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1160.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1170.70. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1148.40. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1142.00.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Monday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's rally, March's high crossing at 82.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.07 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 82.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 82.52. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.22. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.07.



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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Friday Morning

Crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates below the 20 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends Monday's decline, the 38% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 81.18 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 87.26 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.73. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 87.26. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 81.73. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 81.18.

Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. May appears to be forming a symmetrical triangle off the early April high. Closes above 4.269 or below 3.879 are needed to confirm a breakout of this consolidation pattern and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing 4.269. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.879. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.810.

Gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1139.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1139.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 1184.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1147.90. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1170.70. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1124.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1102.40.

The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 82.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 82.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 82.52. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.23. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.00.

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Sorry Crude Oil Bulls....My Family is From Missouri. Show Me!

Crude oil closed down $0.17 at $83.68 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. No serious chart damage has been inflicted in crude, but the bulls need to show more power soon to keep the uptrend on the daily bar chart in place. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the April high of $87.59 a barrel.

Natural gas closed down 0.9 cents at $4.055 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today in quieter trading. Bears still have the solid near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $4.421.

Gold futures closed up $9.60 at $1,148.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw bargain hunting buying interest after recent selling pressure. The bulls have shows resilience and have kept a 2 1/2 month old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 15 points at 81.29 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in more quiet trading. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 82.06.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed down $1.60 at $81.64 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh three week low. No serious chart damage has been inflicted in crude, but the bulls have faded and need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrend on the daily bar chart in place. The Goldman Sachs fraud news and the volcanic ash that is shutting down air travel in Europe are bearish factors for crude. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage.

Natural gas closed down 8.4 cents at $3.955 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears still have the solid near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $4.334.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 11 points at 81.06 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 82.06.

Gold futures closed down $1.30 at $1,135.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a fresh two week low early on, following Friday's steep losses that produced a bearish weekly low close. The key "outside markets" were in a bearish posture for gold today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher, while crude oil prices were lower. Uncertainty regarding the Goldman Sachs fraud charges from the SEC also added to selling pressure in gold today.


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Bulls Lose Their Momentum.....Crude Oil Closes Below 20 Day Moving Average

Crude oil closed lower on Friday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.56 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends today's decline, the 38% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 80.66 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 86.39 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 85.44. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 87.09. First support is today's low crossing at 82.52. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the February-April rally crossing at 80.66.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.334 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.334. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.405. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.857. Second support is the early April low crossing at 3.810.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 79.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.04. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.30. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 80.14. Second support is March's low crossing at 79.73.

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Crude Closes Lower, Bulls Still Maintain The Advantage

Crude oil closed down $0.34 at $85.50 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw mild profit taking. Crude oil bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the April high of $87.09 a barrel.

Natural gas closed down 19.2 cents at $4.007 today. Prices closed near the session low today and were pressured by a bearish weekly natural gas storage report. Bears have the solid near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $4.334.

Gold futures closed up $0.50 at $1,160.10 today. Prices closed near the session high today and were supported by speculative bargain hunting buying after prices were under selling pressure early on. A stronger U.S. dollar index did limit gains in gold, however. Bulls still have the solid near term technical advantage. A nine week old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 28 points at 80.58 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. While no serious chart damage has occurred recently the bulls have faded and need to show more power soon. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage.


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