Just Like the Good Old Days....Crude Oil Down, Natural Gas Up

Crude oil closed down $1.05 a barrel at $83.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The stronger U.S. dollar index weighed on crude oil prices today. The crude bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand.

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Natural gas closed up 17.7 cents at $2.644 today. Prices closed near the session high again today and hit a fresh four week high. Short covering and bargain hunting were featured again today. Bulls have gained good upside near term technical momentum recently to suggest a market low is in place. Bulls and bears are now on a level near term technical playing field.

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Gold futures closed down $0.70 an ounce at $1,627.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on some chart consolidation following recent gains. The key “outside markets” were bearish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were lower. Yet, gold managed to have only small losses, which does suggest safe haven demand for gold is present. Gold market bulls have the slight near term technical advantage.

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Crude Oil and Gold Continue Strong Down Trend, Natural Gas Enjoys the Stronger Dollar

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Crude oil closed down $1.70 a barrel at $93.08 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh 6 1/2 month low. The bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage and gained still more power today. A stronger U.S. dollar index today was bearish for the crude market. With a Trade Triangle Technology Score of -100, this market is in a strong downtrend. All traders should be in short positions in crude oil with appropriate money management stops.

Natural gas closed up 7.0 cents at $2.501 today benefiting from the U.S. Dollars solid upside and near term momentum and overall near term advantage over other currencies. Natural gas prices closed near the session high today and saw short covering. And while the nat gas bulls still have some upside "near term" technical momentum, the nat gas bears do still have the overall near term technical advantage, however.

Gold futures closed down $4.20 an ounce at $1,556.80 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh 4 1/2 month low. The key “outside markets” were again in a bearish posture for gold today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and the crude oil market was lower. Serious near term chart damage has been inflicted recently. Gold bears have the solid near term technical advantage. With a Trade Triangle Technology Score of -90, the gold market is in a strong downtrend. All traders should still be in short positions in gold with appropriate money management stops.

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Another "Risk Off" Day Bearish for Crude Oil

Crude oil closed down $0.62 a barrel at $97.32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today. Prices Monday hit a 4 1/2 month low of $95.34. The bears have the overall near term technical advantage with the recent price downdraft. It was another “risk off” trading day today and as the U.S. dollar index was higher, both being bearish for crude.

Natural gas closed up 9.4 cents at $2.43 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh six week high. The bulls gained fresh upside near term technical momentum today. The bears do still have the overall near term technical advantage, however.

Gold futures closed down $35.20 an ounce at $1,604.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh four month low today as fresh, serious near term chart damage was inflicted. It was yet another “risk off” trading day today and the key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for gold as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower. Gold bears have the near term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum today. A two month old downtrend has been re established on the daily bar chart.

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Crude Oil Finishes Higher on Positive Market News

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Crude oil closed up $0.39 a barrel at $103.50 today. Prices closed near mid range again today. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field. The next near term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $106.00 a barrel.

Natural gas closed down 3.2 cents at $2.064 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Prices Friday hit a contract and 10 year low. The bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early clues to suggest a market low is close at hand.

Gold futures closed up $11.80 an ounce at $1,644.40 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish posture for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Gold bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven week old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and U.S Dollar Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil [May contract] closed up $1.59 a barrel at $102.63 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering after prices Tuesday hit a seven week low. A weaker U.S. dollar index supported crude today. A five week old downtrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.

Gold futures [June contract]closed down $1.70 an ounce at $1,659.00 today. Prices closed near mid range in quieter, consolidative trading. The key outside markets were in a bullish posture today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were higher. That did limit the downside in gold today. The bears still have the slight near term technical advantage in gold. A five week old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

Natural gas [May contract] closed down 4.4 cents at $1.987 today. Prices closed near the session low again today and hit another fresh contract and 10 year low today. The bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a market low is close at hand.

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Disappointing Day For Crude Oil Bulls

It was a disappointing day for the bulls in crude oil, as this market pulled back to an area where it should begin to find support around the $105 level We continue to favor the long side of this market and expect it will improve into early April.

We are looking for crude oil to make its highs probably somewhere in the April May period. With a Trade Triangle score of +55, we believe this market is regrouping to move higher later in the month. We expect to see further gains in crude oil. All traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

Crude oil [April contract] closed down $1.88 a barrel at $104.84 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh two week low. The market was pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index today. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage but did fade today.

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Crude Oil Bulls Take Charge as Iran Cuts Shipments to Europe

Crude oil closed up $1.15 [March contract] a barrel at $101.89 today, close to a five week high. Bolstered by news that Iran has cut oil shipments to Europe and a steep decline in inventory in the U.S. for the first time in 4 weeks. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh four week high. Crude oil bulls have the overall near term technical advantage and have gained some upside momentum recently.

Natural gas closed down 9.4 cents [March contract] at $2.438 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.844.

Gold futures closed up $11.60 [April contract] an ounce at $1,729.30 today. Prices closed near mid range today as bargain hunters stepped in to buy the recent dip. The key outside markets were mostly bullish for gold today, the U.S. dollar index was steady weaker and crude oil prices were higher. Gold bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage, but need to show more power soon to suggest a near term price uptrend can be restarted.


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Is The Double Top in For Crude Oil?

Only our longer term monthly Trade Triangle for crude oil remains positive on this market. The move today below the $98 support level puts this market in jeopardy of further weakness. A close below the $93.50 level seen on December 18th would confirm a double top pivot point formation, which would measure down to the $84 a barrel level.

We do remain longer term positive on this market, however it needs to move and close over resistance at $100 to get its upside momentum into high gear. With only our monthly Trade Triangle in positive mode, we expect we will see further market consolidation in crude oil. Long term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

March crude oil closed down $1.24 a barrel at $96.36 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh six week low. Crude oil bulls are fading. Prices are in a four week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above psychological technical resistance at $100.00 a barrel.

The gold market moved to its best levels since December 2nd, however it is at major resistance between the $1760 and $1800 levels. With our long term monthly Trade Triangle still in a negative mode, we cannot get excited about this market at the moment. We are not super bearish on this metal, however we just need further confirmation with the tools we know are successful in trading gold. Long term term traders should be in short positions in gold with appropriate money management stops. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines.

April gold futures closed up $9.40 an ounce at $1,758.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh two month high. Gold managed gains today despite bearish “outside markets” that saw a firmer U.S. dollar index and sharply lower crude oil prices. Yet, gold rallied anyway on its technical strength. Gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and still have upside near term technical momentum on their side. A steep five week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

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Crude Oil Bulls Can't Seem to Take Advantage of Price Action Above $100

Crude oil closed down $0.42 a barrel at $98.35 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Prices were pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar index today. Crude oil bulls have the overall near term technical advantage. However, the going does get tough for the bulls once prices move above the key $100.00 level.

Gold futures closed up $4.00 an ounce at $1,783.30 today. Prices closed near mid range today, hit a fresh seven week high and closed at a bullish monthly high close. Gold bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage and still have upside near term technical momentum. A steep four week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

Natural gas closed down 20.9 cents at $2.504 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls faded today. Bears have the overall near term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above major psychological resistance at $3.00.

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Gold, Natural Gas and Crude Oil all Close Higher on Tuesday

Crude oil closed up $1.92 a barrel at $93.20 today. Prices closed near mid range today and hit another fresh 11 week high. Crude bulls have gained solid upside near term technical momentum this week as prices have seen a bullish upside “breakout” from what was a well defined sideways trading range on the daily bar chart.

Natural gas closed up 5.6 cents at $3.85 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage as prices are still down near the contract low.

Gold futures closed up $47.20 an ounce at $1,699.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh four week high on a surge of safe haven demand amid fresh US debt crisis uncertainty. Bulls today gained fresh upside near term technical momentum to re establish a four week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

Adam Hewison: Here’s the Bottom Line, Nothing Has Really Changed

The light volume rally that exceeded everyone’s expectations in the equity markets has finally come to an end. We were surprised, like many traders, just how far this rally extended. The major trends always win out in the end, and the major trend for the equity markets, the oil market, the silver market, and the Reuters Jefferies CRB index are all still negative longer term. The long term trends came into play and proved how important they are in the scope of trading.

This morning I saw that Wall Street insider Raj Rayaratnam was sentenced to 11 years in prison for his insider trading. I’m all for putting people behind bars that break the security laws of the United States. The security markets have no place for individuals like this.

I’m also for putting incompetent politicians who waste our money behind bars. There should be consequences for their actions. When you have Senator Dick Durbin go on the Senate floor and say to everybody to pull their money out of Bank of America, it is an irresponsible statement and very dangerous for our fragile economy.

The reason Senator Durbin said what he did on the Senate floor, is because he cannot be prosecuted. Had he made that statement in a town hall meeting or any kind of public meeting, Bank of America could and should sue him. You can’t have politicians denigrating businesses who are elected officials. Unfortunately, most of these officials have zero shame and certainly would not resign over something like this.

Here’s the bottom line, nothing has really changed, the country and the world is in a heap of trouble and that just can’t be swept under the rug and forgotten about.

Let's look at the crude oil action for Thursday.....

The action in crude oil today signifies that we have more than likely put in an interim top for this market. A close in the December contract below $84 a barrel would be viewed as negative, indicating a move back down to the $80 a barrel level. Last Friday, December crude oil closed at $82.97. Let’s see how it closes this week. Intermediate and Long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.

November crude oil closed down $1.16 a barrel at $84.41 today. Prices closed near mid range today and profit taking from recent gains was seen. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. The bulls have the slight overall near term technical advantage.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 55

Please note that we are switching to the December contract for crude oil.

Markets Close Mixed as Commodity Bulls Fight The Stronger Dollar

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today. The stock index bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage as price uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts. Stock index bulls have been very pleased with price action so far this autumn, a time which is normally not favorable to market bulls. My bias is that prices will trade mostly sideways, but with a slight upside bias, into the end of the year.

Crude oil closed down $1.91 at $80.63 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. A rebounding U.S. dollar pressed the crude market lower today. Trading has turned very choppy. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.

Natural gas closed down 13.3 cents at $3.76 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and prices hit another fresh contract low. The bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

Gold futures closed down $19.70 at $1,324.50 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh two week low. Profit taking, a firming U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices combined to pressure gold today. Prices also scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart, whereby the high was higher and low was lower than the previous session's trading range, with a lower close. Some near term technical damage was inflicted today as a 2 1/2 month old uptrend on the daily bar chart was at least temporarily negated today to begin to suggest that a near term market top is in place. Bulls do still have the overall near term and longer term technical advantage, but have faded this week and need to show fresh power soon.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 27 points at 77.69 today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw short covering in a bear market. Dollar index bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.


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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Wednesday Evening Oct. 20th

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher today and saw Tuesday's losses quickly erased. The stock index bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage as price uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts. Stock index bulls have been very pleased with price action so far this autumn, a time which is normally not favorable to market bulls. My bias is that prices will trade mostly sideways, but with a slight upside bias, into the end of the year.

Crude oil closed up $2.28 at $82.44 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today after hitting a fresh three week low early on. Sharp losses in the U.S. dollar index and higher stock index future prices today boosted crude.

Natural gas closed up 0.8 cents at $3.903 today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices hit a fresh contract low this week. The bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

Gold futures closed up $9.10 at $1,345.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and were supported by a sharply lower U.S. dollar index. Bargain hunters once again stepped in to buy weakness in the gold market, to now suggest Tuesday's low is just another "reaction low" in an overall 2 1/2 month old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the overall near term and longer term technical advantage.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 100 points at 77.41 today. Prices closed near the session low today and quickly gave back most of Tuesday's big gains. Dollar index bears still have the overall near term technical advantage and regained some downside momentum today.

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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Tuesday Evening Sept. 28th

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today despite a weak consumer confidence index reading that sunk the U.S. dollar. The indexes this week have hit fresh multi month highs. Bulls still have upside near term technical momentum as the stock market continues to "climb a wall of worry." We are half way through the historically bearish period from September to October, and the stock indexes have so far performed very well. It is my bias that if this autumn were to see serious market turbulence, it would likely have occurred during September.

Crude oil closed down $0.41 at $76.11 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the September high of $78.86 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 4.5 cents at $3.961 today. Prices closed near mid range again today and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Prices have seen a bearish downside "breakout" from a sideways trading range at lower price levels.

Gold futures closed up $9.80 at $1,308.40 today. Prices today closed near the session high, scored another fresh record high and scored a big and bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart, whereby the high is higher and low is lower than the previous day's trading range, with a higher close. A weaker U.S. dollar and safe haven buying interest following some dour U.S. economic data today boosted gold. Gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and gained more power today.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 33 points at 79.22 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh eight month low. Prices also scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage.


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Stock Market and Commodities Summary For Tuesday Sept. 14th

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today. Some dour economic data out of Europe was offset by slightly better than expected U.S. retail sales data today. Bulls have gained some upside near term technical momentum recently as the bulls have "climbed a wall of worry." While the months of Sept. and Oct. have been historically unkind to the stock market bulls, the indexes are starting out the month of September in good shape. The record high in gold today and the rebounding U.S. Treasury markets this week are a warning signal to the stock index bulls that more money may soon be flowing into safe haven assets and away from the stock market.

Crude oil closed down $0.41 at $76.78 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw a corrective pullback from recent gains and were also pressured by some weak economic data coming out of Germany. Bulls still have the slight near term technical advantage. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $80.00 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 1.7 cents at $3.955 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh three week high on short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. A three month old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart.

Gold futures closed up $24.90 at $1,272.00 today. Prices closed near the session high today and soared to a fresh contract and all time record high. A sharply lower U.S. dollar and some fresh safe haven investment demand boosted gold higher today. A dour economic report coming out of Germany today spooked the markets in Europe, and that added to buying interest in gold. Now, look for price volatility in the gold market to heat up in the near term, with bigger daily price movements likely, both on the upside and on the downside. Gold bulls still have the strong overall near term and longer term technical advantage.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 72 points at 81.46 today. Prices closed near the session low again today and hit another fresh four week low. Bears have the near term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum today. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 83.31.


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Crude Oil Bulls Take on Serious Chart Damage....Bears Take Clear Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed down $2.95 at $79.79 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 10 week low amid the EU debt crisis that is playing out. A stronger U.S. dollar index was a main bearish factor for crude today. Serious near term chart damage has been inflicted in crude the past two days, to suggest a near term market top is now in place.

Natural gas closed down 3.8 cents at $3.975 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. The recent pause at lower price levels is not bullish. A minor bear flag has formed on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid near term technical advantage.

Gold futures closed up $5.40 at $1,174.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today as traders stepped in to "buy the dip" and do some bargain hunting at lower price levels. A stronger U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices did limit the upside in gold today. Gold was also supported today on safe haven buying support as rioting occurred in Greece due to austerity measures taken by the government to reduce is massive debt. No chart damage occurred on the downside correction.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 79 points at 84.22 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh contract and 12 month high. European Union sovereign debt troubles will continue to support the dollar index. The bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. However, the dollar index is now short term overbought, technically.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed down $3.44 at $82.75 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today amid the EU debt crisis that is playing out. The bulls faded badly today but still have the overall near term technical advantage.

Natural gas closed up 1.6 cents at $4.016 today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices last Friday hit a fresh contract low. The bears have the solid near term technical advantage.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 102 points at 83.42 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh contract and 12 month high. European Union sovereign debt troubles will continue to support the dollar index. The bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.

Gold futures closed down $11.00 at $1,172.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart, whereby the high was higher and low was lower than Monday's trading range, with a lower close. Profit taking pressure was seen today following recent gains in gold. Gold prices hit a fresh five month high early on today. Gold was also pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index today. No significant chart damage occurred today, but strong follow through selling pressure on Wednesday would begin to dent bullish technical momentum in gold.


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Crude Oil Bulls Take Clear Near Term Advantage

Crude oil closed up $1.13 at $84.89 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh 11 week high. Prices also closed at a bullish weekly high close today. Crude oil bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and have regained solid upside momentum this week.

Natural gas closed up 22.1 cents at $4.09 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a fresh contract low early on. Prices also scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart and closed at a bullish weekly high close. Short covering in a bear market was featured. However, if prices on Monday can show good follow through buying, then a bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart would be confirmed, which would then be one early technical clue that a maket bottom is in place.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 36 points at 80.93 today. Prices closed near the session low again today and closed at a bearish weekly low close. No serious chart damage has occurred but the bulls have faded this week on profit taking pressure. The bulls do still have the overall near term technical advantage.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed up $1.10 at $83.47 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 11 week high. Prices also closed at a bullish monthly high close. Crude oil bulls have the overall near term technical advantage and have regained solid upside momentum this week.

Natural gas closed down 10.6 cents at $3.867 today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh contract low close. Prices also closed at a technically bearish monthly and quarterly low close today. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. Prices are in a three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 44 points at 81.29 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a mildly bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 82.52.


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed up $0.21 at $82.38 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Crude oil bulls have the overall near term technical advantage and have regained upside momentum this week. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $83.47 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 6.7 cents at $3.983 today. Prices closed near the session high today on tepid short covering after hitting another fresh contract low early on. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. Prices are in a three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 12 points at 81.74 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 83.00.


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